College Football

2013 Georgia football's 10 things to know: Only a few more yards to go

The timing was almost perfect for Georgia in 2012. Can the Dawgs and their amazing offense overcome a green defense and a brutal early schedule to put themselves in position for another national title run? For more Bulldogs, visit Georgia site Dawg Sports.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Jun 4, 2013, 11:52am EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. What great timing

I have to update my examples. For a while now, one of my general truisms about college football has been that the way you eventually break through and win a national title is simply by continuously putting a strong product on the field and hoping the timing works out eventually. Sometimes it works out immediately and then stops (see: Bob Stoops). Sometimes it takes a while (Mack Brown). Sometimes it takes a long while (Tom Osborne, Bobby Bowden).

For years, this was my defense of Georgia head coach Mark Richt. To those who would inevitably say, "He can't win the big one," or question his ability to build an elite team, I would simply point out that if the 2002 Georgia team had played in 2001, 2003, 2006, or any other year that didn't see two undefeated teams in the national title game, Richt would have, at the very least, a BCS Championship runner-up line on his resume.

The timing just hadn't worked out yet for Richt in Athens. But in 2012, it did. Wow, did it.

Midway through the season, the narrative was pretty easy: The Georgia offense was breaking through, but despite Jarvis Jones' incredible play, the defense was explosively average. Georgia rose to fifth in the country in early-October but got its comeuppance in the form of a 35-7 loss at South Carolina. The Dawgs fell into the teens, and with a game against No. 3 Florida on the horizon, this appeared doomed to only be a 10-2 (or so) season with a January 1 bowl game against a Big Ten team.

But then Georgia beat Florida, and for a month, the Dawgs looked the part of an honest-to-goodness title contender, with an offense that was getting even better and a defense that had stabilized. And other teams kept losing. Georgia clinched the SEC East title, romped over Georgia Tech on Thanksgiving weekend, and found itself ranked third in the country with a shot at No. 2 Alabama in the SEC title game. Granted, "All they've got to do is beat Alabama..." is not typically a call for success, but damned if Georgia didn't look like it was going to do just that for a good portion of December 1.

2. What awful timing

After 28 minutes, Georgia led Alabama, 7-0. The Tide utilized a quick TD-INT-FG combination to go up, 10-7, at halftime. Georgia was surviving on defense and dominating on special teams, and when the Dawgs blocked a field goal and returned it for a touchdown, they suddenly led the best team in the country, 21-10, with under 22 minutes left in the game.

I'm telling you this as if you didn't already know what happened. This was kind of a classic game. Alabama came back -- of course it did -- and the teams traded scores until the end, when Georgia got one last chance to win the game.

As he had for most of the season, offensive coordinator Mike Bobo made some brilliant play-calls down the stretch, but after some wonderful late-season play and even more wonderful timing got Georgia to within a few yards of the national title game, a random, deflected ball and six damn seconds kept the Dawgs out of it. Sports, man.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 12-2 \| Adj. Record: 11-3 \| Final F/+ Rk: 6
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	Buffalo	45-23	W	47.6 - 24.7	W
8-Sep	at Missouri	41-20	W	23.3 - 27.8	L
15-Sep	Florida Atlantic	56-20	W	58.3 - 18.5	W
22-Sep	Vanderbilt	48-3	W	55.4 - 23.6	W
29-Sep	Tennessee	51-44	W	44.2 - 23.0	W
6-Oct	at South Carolina	7-35	L	20.1 - 30.1	L
20-Oct	at Kentucky	29-24	W	37.3 - 32.3	W
27-Oct	vs. Florida	17-9	W	27.7 - 17.6	W
3-Nov	Ole Miss	37-10	W	42.7 - 16.4	W
10-Nov	at Auburn	38-0	W	37.6 - 17.8	W
17-Nov	Georgia Southern	45-14	W	35.5 - 36.8	L
24-Nov	Georgia Tech	42-10	W	47.0 - 20.2	W
1-Dec	vs. Alabama	28-32	L	50.5 - 28.0	W
1-Jan	vs. Nebraska	45-31	W	42.8 - 23.3	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	37.8	19	19.6	18
Adj. Points Per Game	40.7	2	24.3	29

3. Win the Cocktail Party

Over the course of the Mark Richt era in Athens, Georgia has struggled to get the best of Florida. He lost five of his first six against the Gators, and it has been a mark of progress that he has split the last six. The Florida-Georgia game is obviously a big rivalry, but for Georgia, it is an incredible spark, for better or worse, for the rest of the season.

Since 2005, the Dawgs have gone 3-4 versus Florida. Following their three wins, they have gone 12-0 with an average score of 39-14 for the rest of the regular season. Following their four losses, they have gone 12-5 with an average score of 32-23. After their loss to Florida in 2006, they lost to Kentucky. After their loss in 2008, they barely beat Kentucky and lost at home to Georgia Tech. They lost to Kentucky again in 2009, three weeks after the Florida loss.

But when the Dawgs win that game, they wreck shop for the rest of the regular season. They certainly did last year.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 8 games): Georgia 39.2, Opponent 24.7 (plus-14.5)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 5 games, sans Georgia Southern): Georgia 44.1, Opponent 21.1 (plus-23.0)

If we ignore the Georgia Southern game as the we're-only-paying-half-attention contest these late-season FCS games usually are, we see a team that went from playing great offense and above-average defense to one playing nearly perfect offense and great D. (These averages remain reasonably similar even if you include the GSU game.) Georgia took a 2007-esque leap following survival in Jacksonville, and it almost took the Dawgs to the national title game.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	22	1	9	1
RUSHING	43	11	16	9
PASSING	30	1	4	1
Standard Downs		1	5	1
Passing Downs		6	19	6
Redzone		1	5	1

Q1 Rk	3	1st Down Rk	2
Q2 Rk	19	2nd Down Rk	14
Q3 Rk	1	3rd Down Rk	2
Q4 Rk	31

4. Blame Bobo

Mike Bobo took over as Georgia offensive coordinator in 2006 and was almost instantaneously hated by a large portion of Georgia fans. More often than not, the offensive coordinator is the most hated coach on the staff, so this comes with the territory; but yeah, he was really not very popular.

I'll save the "Did he improve drastically in recent years, or were the haters just hating all along?" debate for others; all I know for sure is that he was pulling the strings for the most underrated offense in the country last year.

Georgia ranked fourth in Off. F/+ last season, first in Off. S&P+. The Bulldogs lost two key receivers and just kept throwing better and better as the season went on. Mix in an explosive run game and aggressive passing downs play-calling, and you've got one ferocious offense, one that perhaps didn't get its due in 2012 because Georgia operated at an extremely slow pace. But let's put it this way: If Georgia had averaged a Baylor-esque 82 plays per game, the Dawgs would have also averaged 581 yards, better than Louisiana Tech, better than Baylor, better than Texas A&M, better than Oklahoma State, better than Oregon. The Dawgs are the poster boys for pace adjustments.

Put as simply as possible, Bobo was the best play-caller in the country last year. He put his freshman backs in position to succeed, he leaned on his veteran quarterbacks, and he called some of the most well-timed screens you'll ever see. You've got this one against Missouri, for one, and pardon me while I embed this play in a post for about the 16th time this season (if only as an apology to Georgia fans for the Bama clip above):

Bobo had it going in 2012 -- I even loved that he didn't call timeout at the end of the Alabama game; when you've got the best defense on the ropes, don't let it regroup -- almost to the point where you wonder if his timing and play-calling were unsustainably great.

5. This might be the best offense in the country

Pace aside, this offense might be even better in 2013. Bobo was relying on a pair of freshman running backs and really did have to deal with a rotating supporting cast in the receiving corps. But freshmen turn into sophomores, and receivers get healthy.

Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall, whose last names combine to rhyme with "Herschel," gained 2,144 yards and scored 25 touchdowns last year. Gurley was a strong every-down power back with some explosiveness, while Marshall was a homerun hitter with a little bit of power. They are basically the entire show this year -- the Nos. 3-5 running backs are gone, so if Gurley or Marshall gets hurt, more true freshmen are getting carries -- but what a show that is. Oh yeah, and basically the entire two-deep on the offensive line returns, with 101 career starts.

And if healthy, this receiving corps could be ridiculous, as well. Malcolm Mitchell has the potential to fill in for the explosive Tavarres King, Arthur Lynch was a revelation at tight end, Michael Bennett was in the middle of a breakout season in 2012 when he hurt his knee, four-star junior college transfer Jonathon Rumph joins the mix (along with two four-star freshmen), and if you want to get an idea for Chris Conley's potential, just watch the above clip a few more times. His technique is still a work in progress (but hey, whose isn't?), but that speed is just ridiculous.

Malcolm Mitchell. Sam Greenwood, Getty.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Aaron Murray

6'1, 208

Sr.

**** (6.0)

249

386

3,893

64.5%

6.3%

9.1

Hutson Mason (2011)

6'3, 202

Jr.

*** (5.6)

254

60.0%

3.2%

8.1

Christian LeMay

6'2, 200

So.

**** (5.9)

50.0%

0.0%

21.5

Parker Welch

6'3, 203

Jr.

42.9%

12.5%

4.1

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Todd Gurley	RB	6'1, 232	So.	**** (6.0)	222	1,385	6.2	6.5	17	+31.5
Keith Marshall	RB	5'11, 219	So.	**** (6.0)	117	759	6.5	9.7	8	+18.8
Ken Malcome	RB				57	272	4.8	3.5	2	+2.6
Aaron Murray	QB	6'1, 208	Sr.	**** (6.0)	33	96	2.9	3.2	3	-4.6
Richard Samuel IV	RB				18	65	3.6	3.2	0	-2.5
Christian LeMay	QB	6'2, 200	So.	**** (5.9)	16	67	4.2	4.2	1	-1.4
Brandon Harton	RB				8	20	2.5	0.6	0	-1.9
Malcolm Mitchell	SE	6'1, 190	Jr.	**** (6.0)	5	17	3.4	10.0	0	-0.9
A.J. Turman	RB	6'0, 205	Fr.	**** (5.8)
J.J. Green	RB	5'8, 183	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Tavarres King

950

61.8%

14.0

17.9%

61.8%

13.9

184.7

Malcolm Mitchell

6'1, 190

Jr.

**** (6.0)

572

76.9%

11.0

13.7%

63.5%

11.0

111.2

Marlon Brown

461

65.0%

11.5

10.5%

70.0%

11.1

89.6

Arthur Lynch

6'5, 254

Sr.

**** (5.8)

431

70.6%

12.7

8.9%

64.7%

12.9

83.8

Michael Bennett

6'3, 205

Jr.

*** (5.7)

345

70.6%

10.1

8.9%

61.8%

10.1

67.1

Chris Conley

6'3, 206

Jr.

*** (5.7)

342

62.5%

10.7

8.4%

65.6%

11.0

66.5

Rantavious Wooten

5'10, 176

Sr.

**** (5.8)

187

55.6%

6.9

7.1%

81.5%

6.3

36.4

Todd Gurley

6'1, 232

So.

**** (6.0)

117

80.0%

5.9

5.3%

55.0%

6.0

22.7

Rhett McGowan

6'0, 180

Sr.

150

63.2%

7.9

5.0%

36.8%

8.0

29.2

Keith Marshall

5'11, 219

So.

**** (6.0)

61.1%

5.1

4.7%

44.4%

4.6

17.7

Jay Rome

6'6, 254

So.

**** (5.9)

152

64.7%

8.9

4.5%

64.7%

9.0

29.5

Justin Scott-Wesley

5'11, 206

So.

**** (5.8)

135

66.7%

15.0

2.4%

33.3%

18.9

26.2

Jonathon Rumph

6'5, 208

Jr.

**** (5.8)

Blake Tibbs

6'2, 179

RSFr.

*** (5.7)

Tramel Terry

5'11, 184

Fr.

**** (5.8)

Reggie Davis

6'0, 159

Fr.

**** (5.8)

6. A King-sized hole

Georgia loses so few weapons from last year's offense that I feel compelled to focus a bit on the biggest one.

As good as players like Bennett, Conley, Lynch, etc., looked last season, nobody could touch King's combination of efficiency (a perfectly solid 62 percent catch rate) and absurd explosiveness (22.6 yards per catch). King caught nine passes for 188 yards versus Kentucky, three for 104 versus Nebraska, and a ridiculous five for 142 versus Alabama, which is like 15 for 500 against a mortal defense. Mitchell could very well be a strong No. 1 receiver, but King was more than strong. He always had the explosiveness, but his efficiency improved dramatically in 2012; so did Georgia's offense.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	113.8	3.21	2.82	38.8%	76.7%	18.8%	98.3	5.3%	9.2%
Rank	16	19	96	67	19	58	65	75	99

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Chris Burnette	RG	6'2, 314	Sr.	**** (6.0)	24 career starts; 2012 2nd All-SEC
Kenarious Gates	LT	6'5, 327	Sr.	*** (5.5)	26 career starts
Dallas Lee	LG	6'4, 295	Sr.	**** (5.8)	21 career starts
David Andrews	C	6'2, 295	Jr.	*** (5.7)	14 career starts
John Theus	RT	6'6, 298	So.	***** (6.1)	14 career starts
Mark Beard	LT	6'5, 300	Jr.	*** (5.6)	2 career starts
Austin Long	RG	6'5, 287	Sr.	**** (5.9)
Watts Dantzler	RT	6'7, 307	Jr.	*** (5.7)
Hunter Long	C	6'4, 312	So.	*** (5.5)
Xzavier Ward	RT	6'7, 278	So.	*** (5.7)
Greg Pyke	RG	6'6, 326	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Brandon Kubianow	OL	6'3, 289	Fr.	**** (5.9)
Josh Cardiello	LG	6'3, 299	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	32	29	23	35
RUSHING	80	22	15	35
PASSING	8	44	44	44
Standard Downs		23	25	22
Passing Downs		47	28	57
Redzone		20	19	18

Q1 Rk	25	1st Down Rk	20
Q2 Rk	46	2nd Down Rk	43
Q3 Rk	22	3rd Down Rk	30
Q4 Rk	19

7. Fear of Jarvis

I pointed out in last week's South Carolina preview how opponents tended to run a lot against the Gamecocks on passing downs for fear of Clowney obliteration. But opponents only ran 38 percent of the time on passing downs against South Carolina; they ran nearly 50 percent of the time on Georgia. Clowney may hit harder than Jones did, but Jones had an even larger impact on opponents' game plans.

We can talk about how good young players like OLB Jordan Jenkins will be, but as with King, you don't just replace Jones' ridiculous numbers (24.5 tackles for loss, 14.5 sacks, SEVEN forced fumbles, four passes defensed in just 12 games). And you don't just replace the impact he has on play-calling.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.1	2.99	3.20	37.2%	73.3%	16.0%	125.9	6.8%	10.9%
Rank	46	74	58	45	97	103	25	14	9

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Garrison Smith	DE	6'3, 299	Sr.	**** (5.9)	14	42.0	5.1%	2	1	0	0	0	1
John Jenkins	NT				13	36.0	4.4%	2	1	0	1	0	1
Kwame Geathers	NT				14	28.0	3.4%	5	1	0	0	0	0
Ray Drew	DE	6'5, 276	Jr.	***** (6.1)	13	16.5	2.0%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Cornelius Washington	DE				14	15.0	1.8%	3	0.5	0	1	0	1
Abry Jones	NT				7	11.5	1.4%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Sterling Bailey	DE	6'3, 282	So.	**** (5.8)	3	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Thornton	NT	6'1, 290	Jr.	**** (5.8)
John Taylor	DE	6'4, 336	RSFr.	**** (5.9)
Toby Johnson	DT	6'4, 305	Jr.	**** (5.8)
Chris Mayes	NT	6'4, 321	So.	*** (5.7)
John Atkins	NT	6'4, 322	Fr.	**** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alec Ogletree	ILB				10	87.0	10.6%	11.5	3	1	5	1	2
Jarvis Jones	OLB				12	68.5	8.3%	24.5	14.5	1	3	7	2
Amarlo Herrera	ILB	6'2, 244	Jr.	**** (5.8)	14	51.5	6.3%	3	0	1	2	1	1
Michael Gilliard	ILB				14	39.0	4.7%	2	0	0	1	0	1
Christian Robinson	ILB				14	34.5	4.2%	7.5	1	0	0	1	1
Jordan Jenkins	OLB	6'3, 246	So.	**** (6.0)	14	24.5	3.0%	8	5	0	2	1	1
Chase Vasser	OLB	6'3, 219	Sr.	*** (5.7)	5	15.5	1.9%	4	0	0	0	1	0
Kosta Vavlas	ILB	6'0, 214	Jr.	*** (5.5)	14	7.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	1	0
T.J. Stripling	OLB	6'6, 237	Sr.	**** (6.0)	14	5.5	0.7%	1	1	0	0	1	0
Ramik Wilson	OLB	6'2, 232	Jr.	**** (5.8)	10	5.0	0.6%	1	0	0	0	1	0
Josh Dawson	OLB	6'4, 254	So.	**** (5.8)	13	3.5	0.4%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
James DeLoach	OLB	6'3, 265	So.	*** (5.6)	13	2.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	LB	6'4, 220	Fr.	**** (5.9)
Tim Kimbrough	LB	6'1, 226	Fr.	**** (5.9)
Johnny O'Neal	LB	6'2, 225	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Reggie Carter	LB	6'1, 229	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Ryne Rankin	LB	6'1, 222	Fr.	*** (5.7)

8. How well have you recruited, Coach?

We see a lot of four-star freshmen, redshirt freshmen, and sophomores on the Georgia roster here. But we also see a whole lot of empty space at the top of each unit. Georgia must replace four of its top six linemen, four of its top five linebackers, and four of its top five defensive backs.

And despite all of those upperclassman stars -- Jones, John Jenkins, Kwame Geathers, Alec Ogletree, Bacarri Rambo, Shawn Williams, Sanders Commings, Branden Smith -- this was still only a good, not great, defense for most of the year. Yes, there were suspensions and injuries involved, and yes the unit caught fire late in the year. But it caught fire mostly because of players who are now gone.

As high as I am on Georgia's offense, I'm equally wary of Georgia's defense. It will still pass the eyeball test by all means, and it might eventually find a high level of play, but look at the Dawgs' schedule below. Three of their four toughest games happen before October. Do you really, honestly think this defense will find an elite level of play that quickly with this many new pieces? I don't.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Shawn Williams	SS				14	77.0	9.4%	5.5	1	0	4	1	0
Bacarri Rambo	FS				10	60.0	7.3%	1	1	3	2	3	1
Sanders Commings	CB				12	46.5	5.7%	1	0	3	2	0	1
Damian Swann	CB	5'11, 178	Jr.	**** (5.9)	14	43.5	5.3%	3.5	2	4	5	2	2
Branden Smith	CB				14	21.5	2.6%	0	0	0	9	0	0
Connor Norman	FS	5'10, 201	Sr.	NR	14	11.5	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Malcolm Mitchell	CB	6'1, 190	Jr.	**** (6.0)	13	11.0	1.3%	0	0	0	3	0	1
Sheldon Dawson	CB	5'11, 190	So.	*** (5.7)	13	10.5	1.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Corey Moore	SS	6'2, 214	Jr.	**** (5.8)	14	9.5	1.2%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Harvey-Clemons	S	6'5, 212	So.	***** (6.1)	14	8.0	1.0%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Devin Bowman	CB	6'0, 180	So.	*** (5.7)	13	7.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Blake Sailors	CB	5'11, 179	Sr.	NR	14	5.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marc Deas	S	6'1, 217	Sr.	*** (5.6)	14	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tray Matthews	FS	6'0, 196	Fr.	**** (6.0)
Reggie Wilkerson	CB	5'11, 171	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Shaquille Wiggins	DB	5'10, 166	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Brendan Langley	DB	6'1, 188	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Quincy Mauger	FS	6'0, 200	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Collin Barber	6'2, 200	So.	60	41.5	3	28	19	78.3%
Adam Erickson	5'10, 171	Jr.	8	37.0	3	3	5	100.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Jamie Lindley			54	62.7	23	42.6%
Marshall Morgan	6'3, 200	So.	38	63.2	14	36.8%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Marshall Morgan	6'3, 200	So.	63-67	5-6	83.3%	3-8	37.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Malcolm Mitchell	KR	6'1, 190	Jr.	16	22.5	0
Todd Gurley	KR	6'1, 232	So.	7	34.7	1
Malcolm Mitchell	PR	6'1, 190	Jr.	11	5.2	0
Rhett McGowan	PR	6'0, 180	Sr.	9	8.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	53
Net Punting	57
Net Kickoffs	31
Touchback Pct	42
Field Goal Pct	110
Kick Returns Avg	54
Punt Returns Avg	78

9. Free points

Something else that will need to have improved quickly this September: place-kicking. Like A&M, Georgia had a freshman kicker who was rather scattershot in 2012, missing four PATs and quite a few long field goals. If Georgia fancies itself a national title contender, it will need every point it can get against Clemson, South Carolina, LSU, Florida and, perhaps, the SEC West champion in early-December. Don't blow free points.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	at Clemson	21
7-Sep	South Carolina	19
21-Sep	North Texas	112
28-Sep	LSU	3
5-Oct	at Tennessee	44
12-Oct	Missouri	39
19-Oct	at Vanderbilt	49
2-Nov	vs. Florida	4
9-Nov	Appalachian State	NR
16-Nov	at Auburn	59
23-Nov	Kentucky	90
30-Nov	at Georgia Tech	38

Five-Year F/+ Rk	17
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	8
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+11 / +11.7
TO Luck/Game	-0.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (10, 3)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-5.8

10. Wow, September

This is a Hagler-Hearnes schedule right here. Whatever Georgia's potential is in 2013, the Dawgs must reach it from the opening bell, or else they'll be Hearnes'd by late-September. There are plenty of wins to be found on the back end of the schedule, and I would be pretty surprised if this team didn't end up at least 10-3, but if they aspire to more than that, then on August 31 Malcolm Mitchell will have to be a full-on, Tavarres-esque No. 1, Jordan Jenkins will have to be capable of pulling a Jarvis Jones on Clemson's Tajh Boyd, a new set of big, imposing tackles will have to immediately play to their recruiting potential, and a young secondary will have to be ready for a steady line of fire from Clemson's incredible offense. And then, seven days later, Jadeveon Clowney comes to town.

Mark Richt is proof that patience can pay off. He was a victim of poor timing a decade ago, and he was the beneficiary of a patient athletic director when he was going 14-12 from 2009-10. Now entering his 13th year in Athens, he has in place a program that almost feels self-sustaining. The recruiting is great, the weapons are legion, the coordinators are good at their jobs, and unless fortunes drastically change (which happens from time to time), Georgia is set up for quite a few top-15 finishes moving forward.

But despite the offense, the combination of a green defense and a rough early slate will probably prevent the Dawgs from reaching last year's late heights. Richt just has to hope that, the next time his timing is right, Georgia can gain about five more yards.