College Football

2013 LSU football's 10 things to know: Don't write off Les Miles' Tigers just yet

For just the second time in the Les Miles era, LSU is looking at a preseason ranking worse than 11th. It'll still be ranked, but elite play is not expected of the Tigers this time around. But with a strong-as-ever running game, a strangely underrated secondary, and a good-as-always special teams unit, Miles' Bayou Bengals might make us feel pretty silly for doubting them. For more Tigers, visit LSU site And the Valley Shook.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Jun 6, 2013, 11:17am EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Defining the baseline

Pop quiz: What's an average season for LSU and Les Miles? Is there such a thing?

Over the last seven seasons, Miles' Tigers have ranked either first or second in F/+ three times and ranked 23rd or worse twice. They have won eight, nine, 10, 11 (twice), 12, and 13 games. Their offense has ranked as high as fifth in Off. F/+ (2007) and as low as 63rd (2009). Their defense has ranked as high as second in Def. F/+ (2011) and as low as 40th (2008).

There are only three constants in Baton Rouge, really: game-changing special teams play (while the Special Teams F/+ top-10 list changes dramatically from year to year, LSU has been in it five straight years), down-to-the-wire games (eight one-possession finishes in 2012, eight in 2010, seven in 2009), and Les Miles being Les Miles.

Two years ago, I wrote this about Miles and LSU, and it still rings totally true.

But to the extent that meaningful, existential thought can be applied to this beautifully flawed obsession called college football, Les Miles will probably be involved. To watch a Les Miles team operating on that wonderful, double-green, yard-markers-every-five-yards field at Tiger Stadium is to witness existence in all its beauty, humor, strength and ridiculous vulnerability. […]

There are no mundane sensations on the Bayou, it seems. There is no fear, only terror. No casual delight, only pure, joyous bliss. No tipsy, only drunk. It is exactly like being an LSU fan. […]

In an era of coachspeak and clinical, precise offenses, Les Miles has figured out how to strip games down to a visceral, chaotic core; you may not want to go there, but you're going there, and you better know how to handle yourself in this bizarre world of odd time management, spectacular fake field goals and general ridiculousness. Because he does. His record in close games proves that. In the last six years, no team has played in, or won, more close games than Miles' Bayou Bengals. College football is a land full of wonder, mystery and danger. Some say to survive it, you need to be as mad as a hatter. Especially in Louisiana.

The Bayou Bengals don't really do average, but they came as close to it as possible in 2012, ranking 10th overall and going 10-3. With three losses by a combined 13 points, they were extremely close to a return trip to the SEC and perhaps BCS title games. With five wins by a combined 22 points, they were pretty close about 7-5, too.

And while we're writing them off to a certain degree in 2013 following some solid attrition on both lines, we probably shouldn't. This coming fall, LSU will once again pass the eyeball test with flying colors, once again swarm viciously on passing downs, and once again play maddening, inconsistent, and occasionally powerful and unstoppable offense. And its season will once again be defined by the eight (or so) down-to-the-wire games that take years off of the lives of every LSU fan in the Bayou.

More: Bill C. previewing every SEC team And every other team, too

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 \| Adj. Record: 12-1 \| Final F/+ Rk: 10
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	North Texas	41-14	W	38.8 - 12.3	W
8-Sep	Washington	41-3	W	42.1 - 9.7	W
15-Sep	Idaho	63-14	W	38.5 - 16.7	W
22-Sep	at Auburn	12-10	W	19.8 - 14.2	W
29-Sep	Towson	38-22	W	31.3 - 26.5	W
6-Oct	at Florida	6-14	L	18.5 - 18.4	W
13-Oct	South Carolina	23-21	W	37.0 - 15.5	W
20-Oct	at Texas A&M	24-19	W	20.1 - 13.0	W
3-Nov	Alabama	17-21	L	37.4 - 24.4	W
10-Nov	Mississippi State	37-17	W	33.8 - 28.4	W
17-Nov	Ole Miss	41-35	W	33.0 - 25.0	W
23-Nov	at Arkansas	20-13	W	17.5 - 28.4	L
31-Dec	vs. Clemson	24-25	L	23.8 - 17.3	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	29.8	58	17.5	12
Adj. Points Per Game	30.1	52	19.2	9

2. The friendly confines

Tiger Stadium has long been known as one of college football's most intimidating venues. Ninety-two thousand raucous LSU fans, a live tiger, and a fired-up, top-10 squad await your arrival. In 2012, Tiger Stadium played one heck of a role in keeping LSU in the top 10. Away from Baton Rouge, the Tigers were barely above average, even despite the win at Texas A&M. Inside Tiger Stadium, they were damn near untouchable.

Adj. Points Per Game (in Baton Rouge): LSU 36.5, Opponent 19.8 (plus-16.7)
Adj. Points Per Game (road/neutral): LSU 19.9, Opponent 18.3 (plus-1.6)

In Baton Rouge, LSU beat South Carolina (then ranked No. 3 in the country) and almost took down No. 1 Alabama. Away from Baton Rouge, LSU almost lost to Auburn and Arkansas. Yes, the Tigers did win at College Station, but they were vulnerable to upset bids with a terribly sluggish offense.

Road struggles were one of many hints that this young offense wasn't ready for the big-time. That's what tends to happen with a new quarterback, a freshman running back, and a still-raw receiving corps. In 2013, the line takes a hit, but the skill positions are in much better shape overall. This could lead to a little more home-road stability.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	87	39	41	38
RUSHING	52	8	15	7
PASSING	94	65	62	66
Standard Downs		35	29	38
Passing Downs		46	72	38
Redzone		10	9	13

Q1 Rk	27	1st Down Rk	30
Q2 Rk	60	2nd Down Rk	48
Q3 Rk	31	3rd Down Rk	24
Q4 Rk	22

3. "I'll take 'Questions I Never Thought I'd Ask' for $500, Alex"

Did LSU pass too much?

No, seriously. Did LSU, a team that leaned on the run as far as it could take it in 2011 (and the run took it pretty far), throw too much for its own good in 2012? The Tigers were a top-10 rushing team last year, with a strong line opening holes against great run defenses and with a true freshman showing serious moxie.

Jeremy Hill entered an incredibly crowded backfield that already had four proven (or at least semi-proven) options, and over the last half of the season, he was the No. 1 guy. In three weeks against South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Alabama, he rushed 64 times for 358 yards and four touchdowns. He scored three times against Ole Miss and gained 124 yards in the bowl game versus Clemson. He overtook a completely underwhelming Spencer Ware on the totem pole, and he and the other four backs gave LSU a reason to lean even more heavily on the run in 2012 than it did in 2011.

But LSU didn't. Instead, LSU ran and passed an almost completely normal amount; the Tigers were five percent above the national average running on standard downs but passed more than average on passing downs. They put a lot of trust in quarterback Zach Mettenberger and the aforementioned raw receiving corps, and it didn't necessarily pay off. LSU was slightly below average with the forward pass, showing big-play ability on passing downs but little efficiency. As good as the passing game looked during LSU's second-half comeback against Alabama, that wasn't the norm.

The passing game did improve, however. Starting with the Alabama game, Mettenberger and the receiving corps did seem to improve their rapport.

Zach Mettenberger, first eight games: 112-for-198 (57%), 1,419 yards (7.2 per pass), 7 TD, 4 INT
Zach Mettenberger, last five games: 95-for-154 (62%), 1,190 yards (7.7 per pass), 5 TD, 3 INT

Former five-star recruit Jarvis Landry caught fire in the last five games, catching 33 passes for 357 yards and four scores (first eight games: 23 catches, 216 yards, one score). With Landry and Odell Beckham, Jr., back, there is hope for the passing game. But the Tigers attempted balance to their own detriment last year.

(And Alex Trebek is still on Jeopardy!, right? Jeopardy! is still a thing, right? That's an aged reference, I'll admit.)

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Zach Mettenberger

6'5, 230

Sr.

**** (5.8)

207

352

2,609

58.8%

8.3%

6.2

Stephen Rivers

6'8, 225

So.

*** (5.7)

Rob Bolden

6'4, 208

Jr.

**** (5.9)

Hayden Rettig

6'4, 210

Fr.

**** (6.0)

Anthony Jennings

6'2, 202

Fr.

**** (5.9)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Jeremy Hill	RB	6'2, 235	So.	**** (5.8)	142	755	5.3	6.0	12	+17.1
Spencer Ware	RB				94	367	3.9	3.3	1	-3.7
Kenny Hilliard	RB	6'0, 231	Jr.	**** (5.9)	82	464	5.7	7.4	6	+7.3
Michael Ford	RB				71	392	5.5	2.8	3	+4.7
Alfred Blue	RB	6'2, 220	Sr.	*** (5.6)	40	270	6.8	4.8	2	+5.6
Terrance Magee	RB	5'9, 212	Jr.	*** (5.7)	27	133	4.9	N/A	1	N/A
J.C. Copeland	FB	6'1, 272	Sr.	**** (5.8)	21	67	3.2	3.6	4	-2.0
Russell Shepard	WR-Z				20	161	8.1	19.5	1	+5.9
Zach Mettenberger	QB	6'5, 230	Sr.	**** (5.8)	15	37	2.5	1.1	0	-2.8

4. Addition by subtraction

Five LSU running backs averaged at least three carries per game in 2012; two averaged worse than 3.5 highlight yards per opportunity. Those two are gone, and the three most explosive backs return. Two of them, at least.

With Hill and Kenny Hilliard leading the way (assuming Hill's suspension ends at some point), the run game should be quite explosive; the ground game's efficiency will depend on how quickly a reasonably new line can gel following the departure of two three-year starters. Last year's line was fantastic at preventing negative plays and keeping LSU on schedule.

Kenny Hilliard. Ronald Martinez, Getty.

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Jarvis Landry

6'1, 195

Jr.

***** (6.1)

573

64.4%

6.6

25.4%

57.5%

6.6

76.7

Odell Beckham, Jr.

WR-Z

6'0, 187

Jr.

**** (5.9)

713

59.7%

9.9

21.0%

59.7%

9.9

95.4

Kadron Boone

WR-X

6'0, 207

Sr.

**** (5.9)

348

50.0%

6.7

15.2%

48.1%

6.1

46.6

James Wright

WR-X

6'2, 203

Sr.

**** (5.8)

242

60.0%

8.1

8.7%

60.0%

8.1

32.4

Spencer Ware

230

78.3%

10.0

6.7%

39.1%

10.1

30.8

Russell Shepard

WR-Z

31.6%

4.8

5.5%

63.2%

4.6

12.3

Chase Clement

45.5%

4.6

3.2%

0.0%

2.0

6.8

Jeremy Hill

6'2, 235

So.

**** (5.8)

88.9%

8.1

2.6%

33.3%

5.5

9.8

Nic Jacobs

55.6%

6.4

2.6%

88.9%

4.4

7.8

Travis Dickson

6'3, 230

Jr.

**** (5.8)

75.0%

9.1

2.3%

62.5%

9.2

9.8

Dillion Gordon

6'5, 280

So.

*** (5.7)

Travin Dural

6'2, 180

RSFr.

**** (5.8)

Quantavius Leslie

6'4, 190

Jr.

**** (5.8)

Logan Stokes

6'5, 253

Jr.

*** (5.5)

DeSean Smith

6'4, 222

Fr.

**** (6.0)

John Diarse

6'1, 205

Fr.

**** (5.8)

Kevin Spears

6'3, 190

Fr.

**** (5.8)

5. One more receiver

Despite some inconsistency, the duo of Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, Jr., worked pretty well by the end of the season. Landry was a possession receiver with upside, while Beckham was more of an all-or-nothing guy with high-end speed and minimal technique. LSU's passing game went from below average to solid with Landry's emergence, but the Tigers still need one more semi-dependable weapon if they're going to be passing as much as they apparently want to.

There is an absurd number of former four-star recruits in this unit; who might step up? Can Kadron Boone raise his catch rate to an acceptable level? Is James Wright ready to see a few more passes? Might junior college transfer Quantavius Leslie be the answer? And what about the tight end position that nearly vanished from the passing game last year?

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	114.9	3.11	2.92	37.5%	69.6%	14.9%	78.9	7.4%	9.7%
Rank	13	39	87	78	56	8	92	106	105

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
P.J. Lonergan	C				38 career starts
Josh Dworaczyk	LT				36 career starts
Josh Williford	LG	6'7, 332	Sr.	*** (5.5)	20 career starts
Chris Faulk	LT				16 career starts
La'el Collins	LT	6'5, 321	Jr.	***** (6.1)	13 career starts
Vadal Alexander	RT	6'6, 350	So.	**** (5.8)	9 career starts
Trai Turner	RG	6'3, 306	So.	**** (5.8)	7 career starts
Elliott Porter	C	6'4, 300	Jr.	*** (5.7)	1 career start
Chris Davenport	LT
Jonah Austin	LG	6'6, 329	So.	*** (5.7)
Jerald Hawkins	LT	6'6, 300	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Derek Edinburgh, Jr.	RT	6'8, 316	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Fehoko Fanaika	RG	6'6, 340	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Ethan Pocic	LG	6'7, 285	Fr.	**** (6.0)
Josh Boutte	OL	6'5, 305	Fr.	**** (5.9)
Andy Dodd	OL	6'4, 320	Fr.	**** (5.8)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	8	4	9	3
RUSHING	9	5	7	3
PASSING	28	7	15	3
Standard Downs		9	17	6
Passing Downs		1	1	1
Redzone		60	73	58

Q1 Rk	12	1st Down Rk	6
Q2 Rk	6	2nd Down Rk	4
Q3 Rk	12	3rd Down Rk	9
Q4 Rk	12

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	124.2	2.42	2.87	35.1%	70.6%	24.4%	113.6	6.2%	9.1%
Rank	5	9	31	20	83	12	43	21	22

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Bennie Logan	DT				13	30.0	4.3%	5.5	2	0	3	1	0
Barkevious Mingo	DE				13	29.5	4.3%	8.5	4.5	0	3	1	2
Sam Montgomery	DE				13	27.5	4.0%	13	8	0	2	2	1
Anthony Johnson	DT	6'3, 304	Jr.	***** (6.1)	13	20.5	3.0%	10	3	0	1	0	0
Lavar Edwards	DE				13	20.0	2.9%	7	4.5	1	0	0	0
Josh Downs	DT				13	12.5	1.8%	5.5	3.5	0	0	0	0
Ego Ferguson	DT	6'3, 308	Jr.	**** (6.0)	13	8.5	1.2%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Danielle Hunter	DE	6'5, 235	So.	**** (5.8)	12	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jermauria Rasco	DE	6'3, 255	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13	6.0	0.9%	2	0	0	0	1	0
Chancey Aghayere	DE				11	5.5	0.8%	1	1	0	1	0	1
Quentin Thomas	DT	6'3, 294	So.	*** (5.7)	3	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mickey Johnson	DT	6'0, 306	So.	**** (5.8)	1	0.5	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Allen	DE	6'6, 253	Jr.	**** (5.9)
Justin Maclin	DE	6'4, 237	Jr.	**** (5.8)
Frank Herron	DE	6'5, 260	Fr.	***** (6.1)
Christian LaCouture	DT	6'5, 290	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Tashawn Bower	DE	6'5, 241	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Greg Gilmore	DT	6'4, 275	Fr.	**** (5.8)

6. Fret not about the defensive line

The primary reason why people seem a bit lower on LSU this season is because the defensive line was decimated by departures. The top three ends are gone, as are two of the top three tackles. But damned if I just cannot get too worried about them.

For one thing, the LSU pass rush was only good last year, not great. Opponents didn't fear the pass rush an overt amount; whereas opponents ran a ton on passing downs against South Carolina and Georgia to avoid Jadeveon Clowney and Jarvis Jones, they really didn't stray from the pass in fear of Barkevious Mingo and Sam Montgomery (though perhaps they should have at times). That may have had to do with the fact that LSU wasn't blitzing a lot (linebackers had just five sacks) and was using linebackers to support the young secondary.

Regardless, now the secondary is seasoned and exciting, and defensive coordinator John Chavis can probably get away with a bit more aggressiveness in the blitz if he wants to. Safety Micah Eugene did a decent Honey Badger impersonation at times in 2012, and between him and a deep corps of linebackers, I think the pass rush will end up alright even if the defensive end position regresses. And between Anthony Johnson and Ego Ferguson, I can't worry much about the tackle position (though depth could be a concern).

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kevin Minter	MIKE				13	92.5	13.4%	15	4	1	5	1	0
Lamin Barrow	WILL	6'2, 232	Sr.	*** (5.7)	13	78.0	11.3%	7.5	0	0	5	1	2
Deion Jones	SAM	6'2, 202	So.	*** (5.7)	13	15.5	2.2%	3	0	0	0	0	1
Kwon Alexander	WILL	6'2, 215	So.	**** (5.8)	7	10.0	1.4%	1	0	0	1	1	2
Lamar Louis	MIKE	6'0, 220	So.	**** (5.8)	11	9.0	1.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Luke Muncie	LB				9	8.5	1.2%	1	0	1	0	0	0
Seth Fruge	LB	5'11, 189	Sr.	** (5.4)	13	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tahj Jones	SAM	6'2, 205	Sr.	*** (5.6)	1	2.5	0.4%	1.5	1	0	0	1	0
Ronnie Feist	MIKE	6'2, 230	So.	*** (5.7)	5	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
D.J. Welter	MIKE	6'0, 226	Jr.	*** (5.6)	1	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lorenzo Phillips	WILL	6'2, 215	RSFr.	**** (5.8)	4	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Trey Granier	SAM	6'1, 227	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Kendell Beckwith	LB	6'3, 228	Fr.	**** (5.9)

7. Anticipating losses

Last year, LSU's defensive two-deep was structured in a way that seemed to acknowledge that the Tigers were going to lose some of their steadiest players. The second string was made up of nearly all true freshmen and redshirt freshmen, and LSU utilized a large number of players throughout the season.

Kevin Minter and Lamin Barrow were the clear leaders at linebacker, but four other players (three freshmen) logged at least 8.5 tackles. And in the secondary, three freshmen got a lot of time in backup roles. A few other redshirting freshmen were listed on the two-deep, presumably getting a lot of "just in case" reps in practice.

The depth the Tigers were attempting to maintain last year could pay off in spite of the departures of Minter, safety Eric Reid and corner Tharold Simon. Sophomores Deion Jones, Jalen Mills, Micah Eugene, and Jalen Collins all showed glimpses of major star power last year; now they'll get a bigger spotlight.

Secondary

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Eric Reid

66.5

9.6%

Jalen Mills

6'0, 185

So.

*** (5.6)

47.5

6.9%

Craig Loston

6'2, 205

Sr.

***** (6.1)

42.0

6.1%

Tharold Simon

40.0

5.8%

Ronald Martin

6'1, 202

Jr.

*** (5.6)

26.5

3.8%

Micah Eugene

5'11, 190

So.

*** (5.6)

24.0

3.5%

3.5

Jalen Collins

6'2, 195

So.

**** (5.8)

22.5

3.3%

Corey Thompson

6'2, 210

So.

*** (5.7)

8.0

1.2%

Jerqwinick Sandolph

6'2, 190

So.

*** (5.5)

3.0

0.4%

Dwayne Thomas

6'0, 175

RSFr.

**** (5.8)

Derrick Raymond

6'1, 175

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

Kavahra Holmes

6'2, 180

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

Tre'Davious White

5'11, 175

Fr.

***** (6.1)

Jeryl Brazil

5'10, 181

Fr.

**** (5.8)

Rashard Robinson

6'2, 163

Fr.

**** (5.8)

Rickey Jefferson

6'0, 180

Fr.

**** (5.8)

8. Is it possible for the LSU secondary to be underrated?

Despite an only decent pass rush, LSU had the No. 1 passing-downs defense in the country last year. The perpetual nickel defense probably helped, as did linebackers who weren't blitzing.

But is it possible that we're not talking about the LSU secondary -- the LSU secondary -- enough? This could be a deep, downright awesome unit this year. It's the other main reason why I can't get too worked up about the loss of Mingo and Montgomery up front.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Brad Wing			59	44.8	10	17	21	64.4%
Jamie Keehn	6'4, 222	So.	12	43.7	1	5	3	66.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
James Hairston	6'1, 220	Jr.	79	61.3	27	34.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Drew Alleman			44-44	18-21	85.7%	3-8	37.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Michael Ford	KR			20	27.5	0
Odell Beckham, Jr.	KR	6'0, 187	Jr.	5	15.8	0
Jarvis Landry	KR	6'1, 195	Jr.	4	19.0	0
Odell Beckham, Jr.	PR	6'0, 187	Jr.	35	9.1	2

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	9
Net Punting	8
Net Kickoffs	41
Touchback Pct	72
Field Goal Pct	62
Kick Returns Avg	21
Punt Returns Avg	57

9. No more Brad Wing :(

Everybody's favorite Australian punter is now a Philadelphia Eagle. But everybody's new favorite Australian punter, Jamie Keehn, looked pretty damn good when filling in for Wing last year, posting a nearly identical yardage average and FC/I20 ratio.

LSU leaned heavily on its punting to produce another top-10 special teams performance, and while the return game is in flux (Michael Ford is gone, and Odell Beckham, Jr., is a little too all-or-nothing at times), punting might not actually be a question mark. And let's face it: LSU gets the benefit of the doubt at special teams until proven otherwise.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	vs. TCU	16
7-Sep	UAB	105
14-Sep	Kent State	80
21-Sep	Auburn	59
28-Sep	at Georgia	9
5-Oct	at Mississippi State	51
12-Oct	Florida	4
19-Oct	at Ole Miss	29
26-Oct	Furman	NR
9-Nov	at Alabama	1
23-Nov	Texas A&M	13
30-Nov	Arkansas	37

Five-Year F/+ Rk	7
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	8
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+16 / +9.5
TO Luck/Game	+2.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (8, 5)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-5.0

10. Another season defined by close games

LSU is going to once again be ridiculously big, strong, fast, and, yes, unstable in 2013. The Tigers will also play six teams projected in the top 30. They get huge home games versus Florida and Texas A&M, a huge neutral-site game versus TCU to start the season, and tough road trips to Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama. Most of these games will be close, and LSU's season will once again be defined by its ability to muddy up the water, make plays in the fourth quarter, and win a majority of its close games.

That's what the Les Miles Tigers do. They went 5-3 in one-possession games in 2012, 1-0 in 2011 (a major outlier), 6-2 in 2010, 5-2 in 2009, 2-2 in 2008, 4-2 in 2007, 2-1 in 2006, and 4-1 in 2005. They have never had a losing record in such games in the Miles era, and while this could portend the most vicious, damaging regression-toward-the-mean ever at some point, for now we'll just say that Les Miles teams win close games. And for the seventh time in nine seasons in Baton Rouge, this Les Miles team will probably win 10 or more games, too.

I know exactly why people are a little down on LSU this year, but I just can't convince myself to join them. I see a top-10 team here, with strong-as-always special teams, a defense with a secondary good enough to compensate for losses on the line, and an offense that will probably look good (better than in 2012, at least) throwing the football. The Tigers aren't going to win the SEC West, but whatever average is for Les Miles at this point, he should see at least another average season this fall.