2013 Alabama football's 10 things to know: Tide still on a different level

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Playing a different game

Over the last eight seasons, 961 teams have played FBS football. If you ranked all of them according to their F/+ rankings, Alabama's last four teams have ranked sixth, 13th, first, and second, respectively. Only seven teams have finished with an F/+ rating better than plus-40.0 percent. Alabama has three of them. Only two have finished with an F/+ rating better than plus-50.0 percent: Alabama in each of the last two years.

Or, to put that in chart form, here's what Alabama's F/+ progression chart looks like using a scale that works for every other team in the country:

(Here's a prettier, more properly scaled version.)

Alabama's Def. F/+ rating improved to seventh in 2008 to sixth in 2009 and fifth in 2010, and it has been a distant first in both 2011 and 2012. In fact, the 2011 defense was much, much better than any other defense in the F/+ era:

Best Def .F/+ Ratings
1. 2011 Alabama (+37.1%)
2. 2012 Alabama (+27.8%)
3. 2011 LSU (+27.8%)
4. 2010 Boise State (+25.9%)
5. 2008 USC (+25.9%)

Plus, get this: The offense has been in the Off. F/+ top five for each of the last four years.

Indeed, Nick Saban has gamed the system. To win in college football, it takes talent acquisition, talent development, and tactical prowess, probably in that order. Saban is not only college football's best recruiter, but he might also be its best developer of the talent he acquires, and while not incredibly innovative, his strategies and tactics perfectly fit the talent on hand. He is indeed playing a different game than the rest of the coaches in college football.

And despite living in an era of scholarship limitations and attempted parity, he has a chance to do something never before achieved in college football: win four AP national titles in five years.

Nebraska won three in four years from 1994-97. Miami won four in nine years from 1983-91. Alabama won three in five from 1961-65 (and will always somewhat justifiably claim to have been screwed out of a fourth in six in 1966). Notre Dame won three in four from 1946-49. But four in five? Never happened. As we prepare for a new era in college football -- the College Football Playoff that begins in 2014 might take the "mythical" out of "Mythical National Champion" -- the old era might close with an unprecedented accomplishment.

Alabama enters 2013 just as it entered (and left) 2012, as the team most well-positioned for a national title run. But here's the deal: The Tide will still need help.

2. You still need luck

I still think Quinn Sharp's field goal was good. The Oklahoma State junior lined up for a 37-yard field goal in Ames, Iowa, with 1:21 left in a tie game on the evening of November 18, 2011, and if he did miss it, it was by about a centimeter. It was ruled no good, and Oklahoma State eventually lost to Iowa State in overtime. Sure, if he made it, Iowa State would have still had about 75 seconds to tie or win the game in regulation. And sure, we could have seen some crazy butterfly effect in which, if OSU beats Iowa State, suddenly the Cowboys don't completely and totally destroy Oklahoma in Stillwater a week later. But the odds are pretty good that, if Sharp's kick is ruled good, then Alabama, which lost to LSU via its own missed field goals, doesn't go to the 2011 BCS title game.

And if Oregon's Alejandro Maldanado doesn't miss two field goals against Stanford on November 17, 2012, Alabama, with its home loss to Texas A&M, potentially doesn't go to the 2012 BCS title game either.

And hell, if Colt McCoy doesn't get hurt on Texas' opening series in the 2009 BCS title game, we've got an entirely different ballgame there, too. (Remember, Alabama-Texas was a three-point game late in the fourth quarter before the Tide erupted and put the game away.)

Alabama has been by far the best team in college football over the last four years. By far. But each of its three national titles still required luck. Titles always do; separating yourself from a field of 120 teams in just 12 to 14 games in a sport played with a pointy, moody ball demands a dose of good fortune. What was potentially the best team of all time didn't win a national title. Hell, two of the five best teams in the F/+ era (2008 USC, 2011 LSU) didn't win titles -- USC didn't even play for the title in 2008. There's a reason the four-titles-in-five-years trick hasn't been done before.

The presence of luck means that, even with Alabama possessing the most ridiculously talented team in the country, one with a lot of experience to boot, it's still smarter to bet on the field than on one team. Teams not named Alabama still have a better chance of raising the final BCS crystal ball than teams named Alabama.

But damn, are the Tide going to be good again this year.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 13-1 | Adj. Record: 14-0 | Final F/+ Rk: 1
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	vs. Michigan	41-14	W	47.7 - 16.2	W
8-Sep	Western Kentucky	35-0	W	36.6 - 9.0	W
15-Sep	at Arkansas	52-0	W	39.2 - 4.1	W
22-Sep	Florida Atlantic	40-7	W	38.4 - 5.3	W
29-Sep	Ole Miss	33-14	W	23.8 - 16.2	W
13-Oct	at Missouri	42-10	W	46.3 - 2.8	W
20-Oct	at Tennessee	44-13	W	40.0 - 15.2	W
27-Oct	Mississippi State	38-7	W	40.4 - 20.1	W
3-Nov	at LSU	21-17	W	45.8 - 21.9	W
10-Nov	Texas A&M	24-29	L	37.7 - 21.7	W
17-Nov	Western Carolina	49-0	W	38.6 - 19.9	W
24-Nov	Auburn	49-0	W	39.3 - 7.6	W
1-Dec	vs. Georgia	32-28	W	43.8 - 22.9	W
7-Jan	vs. Notre Dame	42-14	W	53.6 - 22.2	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	38.7	13	10.9	1
Adj. Points Per Game	40.8	1	14.6	1

3. Amazing, then only excellent

The Alabama of the first seven games of 2012 might have been Peak Alabama. Despite a young defense that had to replace quite a few stars from the untouchable 2011 unit, the Tide defense seemed as good as ever through most of October. It allowed a damn strong Michigan offense (16th in Off. F/+) just 269 yards. It allowed 137 to Arkansas, 110 to Florida Atlantic, 218 to Ole Miss, and 129 to Missouri. Yes, quarterback injuries helped -- both Arkansas' Tyler Wilson and Missouri's James Franklin were out when their teams played Alabama -- but those yardage totals are just ridiculous.

The Alabama of the second half of the season was a bit of a different team, however.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 7 games): Alabama 38.9, Opponent 9.8 (plus-29.1)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 7 games): Alabama 42.7, Opponent 19.5 (plus-23.2)

The national scoring average was around 28 points per game in 2012, so we can see that the Alabama defense of the second half of the year was still almost nine points better than average, but it was worse. Key players got a bit banged up, and slowly but surely, opponents began to figure out how to move the ball a little bit, mostly through the air. LSU's Zach Mettenberger, Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel, and Georgia's Aaron Murray combined to complete 68 of 101 passes for 830 yards, four touchdowns and a pick; the glitches cost the Tide the A&M game and damn near cost them against LSU and Georgia, too.

Alabama's offense, improving every week, was able to overcome these lapses; and again, this was still, on average, a wonderful defense. But while greatness is hard enough, perfection is impossible to maintain.

(And yes, you can probably expect a "What were opponents doing differently late in the year?" post at some point soon at Football Study Hall.)

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	31	4	6	3
RUSHING	16	4	3	5
PASSING	76	6	23	4
Standard Downs		9	10	10
Passing Downs		3	4	2
Redzone		4	4	6

Q1 Rk	6	1st Down Rk	6
Q2 Rk	5	2nd Down Rk	3
Q3 Rk	27	3rd Down Rk	6
Q4 Rk	3

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
A.J. McCarron	6'4, 214	Sr.	**** (5.9)	211	314	2,933	67.2%	30	3	22	6.5%	8.3
Blake Sims	6'0, 202	Jr.	**** (5.8)	5	10	77	50.0%	0	0	1	9.1%	5.5
Phillip Ely				3	4	42	75.0%	1	0	0	0.0%	10.5
Cooper Bateman	6'3, 215	Fr.	**** (5.8)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Eddie Lacy	RB				204	1,322	6.5	5.3	17	+25.0
T.J. Yeldon	RB	6'2, 218	So.	***** (6.1)	175	1,108	6.3	4.4	12	+20.3
Kenyan Drake	RB	6'1, 201	So.	**** (5.8)	42	281	6.7	5.8	5	+7.6
Blake Sims	QB	6'0, 202	Jr.	**** (5.8)	29	203	7.0	6.0	2	+4.7
AJ McCarron	QB	6'4, 214	Sr.	**** (5.9)	27	158	5.9	5.5	1	+2.6
Dee Hart	RB	5'9, 187	So.	***** (6.1)	21	88	4.2	1.9	0	-0.7
Jalston Fowler	RB	6'1, 250	Jr.	**** (5.8)	11	85	7.7	3.7	0	+2.4
Altee Tenpenny	RB	6'0, 212	Fr.	**** (6.0)
Tyren Jones	RB	5'9, 215	Fr.	**** (6.0)
Alvin Kamara	RB	5'10, 197	Fr.	**** (6.0)

4. Sell out against the run, pray against the pass

It's not a coincidence that in two of Alabama's three close calls (LSU, A&M, Georgia), the Crimson Tide posted two of their three lowest rushing totals of the year. They gained just 122 yards on the ground against Texas A&M and 166 against LSU, and they underwent lengthy (for them) offensive droughts in each game. With last year's top three receivers returning, including the ridiculous Amari Cooper, the Alabama passing attack is terrifying. But in 2012, at least, the running game was even scarier.

At least the passing game was occasionally inefficient; the run game was as strong as almost any in the country. To have any chance of beating Alabama, you had to either sell out to stop the run (and allow for the possibility of getting picked apart by the pass), or you needed to take the Georgia route: dominate in special teams and gain most of your offensive yardage in about three drives.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Amari Cooper	WR-X	6'1, 202	So.	**** (6.0)	76	58	999	76.3%	13.1	24.2%	63.2%	13.1	193.6
Kevin Norwood	WR-Z	6'2, 195	Sr.	**** (5.9)	42	29	461	69.0%	11.0	13.4%	81.0%	10.0	89.3
Christion Jones	WR-H	5'11, 185	Jr.	NR	40	27	368	67.5%	9.2	12.7%	57.5%	9.2	71.3
Michael Williams	TE				31	24	183	77.4%	5.9	9.9%	83.9%	6.4	35.5
Eddie Lacy	RB				30	22	189	73.3%	6.3	9.6%	43.3%	5.7	36.6
Kenny Bell	WR	6'1, 180	Sr.	**** (5.8)	26	17	431	65.4%	16.6	8.3%	53.8%	16.6	83.5
T.J. Yeldon	RB	6'2, 218	So.	***** (6.1)	15	11	131	73.3%	8.7	4.8%	60.0%	8.7	25.4
DeAndrew White	WR	6'0, 190	Jr.	**** (5.9)	12	8	105	66.7%	8.8	3.8%	66.7%	8.1	20.3
Marvin Shinn	WR-X				11	6	42	54.5%	3.8	3.5%	27.3%	4.1	8.1
Cyrus Jones	WR-H	5'10, 196	So.	**** (5.9)	10	5	52	50.0%	5.2	3.2%	70.0%	4.7	10.1
Brian Vogler	TE	6'7, 260	Jr.	**** (5.8)	4	2	21	50.0%	5.3	1.3%	75.0%	5.2	4.1
Harrison Jones	TE	6'4, 241	Jr.	*** (5.7)
Malcolm Faciane	TE	6'5, 267	So.	**** (5.8)
Chris Black	WR	5'11, 182	RSFr.	**** (6.0)
O.J. Howard	TE	6'6, 237	Fr.	***** (6.1)
ArDarius Stewart	WR	6'1, 190	Fr.	**** (6.0)
Robert Foster	WR	6'3, 187	Fr.	**** (6.0)
Raheem Falkins	WR	6'4, 195	Fr.	**** (5.8)

5. Amari Cooper is just unfair

Amari Cooper was the No. 6 wide receiver in the 2012 freshman class according to Rivals.com. Here are the stats produced by the five players above him in 2012:

1. Dorial Green-Beckham, Missouri: 43 targets, 27 catches, 386 yards (9.0 per target)
2. Stefon Diggs, Maryland: 80 targets, 54 catches, 848 yards (10.6 per target)
3. Nelson Agholor, USC: 31 targets, 19 catches, 340 yards (11.0 per target)
4. Thomas Johnson, Texas A&M: 38 targets, 30 catches, 339 yards (8.9 per target)
5. Cayleb Jones, Texas: 5 targets, 2 catches, 35 yards (7.0 per target)

Jones was a non-factor, and Johnson pulled a strange disappearing act, then left A&M. But the top three players on the list were perfectly acceptable for true freshmen, and in Diggs' case, considering he was the only weapon on an offense that lost its starting quarterback seemingly every week of the season (it was so bad that a backup linebacker was starting at the end of the season, and the rumor was that Diggs himself would move to QB), he was just plain awesome. But unless you give Diggs quite a few degree-of-difficulty points (which would be justified), Amari Cooper was the most productive of the bunch. Because, you know, that's what Alabama needed: an overachiever.

Cooper is just awesome. His fundamentals are fantastic, especially for such a young player, and he's got all the high-end speed one needs. And he's got a lovely corps of receivers to complement him, including last year's No. 2-5 receivers and yet another incoming class of stud freshmen. SB Nation's research and analytics intern, Chris A. Brown, followed Alabama closely this spring and came away very impressed with true freshman tight end O.J. Howard, projecting him as a potential 500-yard receiver. Because, you know, that's what Alabama needs: a stud tight end to go with its stud receivers.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	137.8	3.59	4.29	49.5%	72.5%	12.6%	115.9	6.7%	2.8%
Rank	1	1	2	2	36	2	46	97	14

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Barrett Jones	C				50 career starts; 2012 1st All-American
Chance Warmack	LG				40 career starts; 2012 1st All-American
D.J. Fluker	RT				36 career starts; 2012 2nd All-American
Anthony Steen	RG	6'3, 309	Sr.	*** (5.7)	25 career starts
Cyrus Kouandjio	LT	6'6, 310	Jr.	***** (6.1)	14 career starts
Kellen Williams	LT	6'3, 302	Sr.	*** (5.7)
Austin Shepherd	RT	6'5, 315	Jr.	*** (5.7)
Chad Lindsay	C	6'2, 302	Jr.	*** (5.7)
Ryan Kelly	C	6'5, 290	So.	*** (5.7)
Arie Kouandjio	LG	6'5, 315	So.	**** (5.9)
Issac Luatua	RG	6'2, 313	So.	*** (5.7)
Brandon Greene	LT	6'5, 307	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Alphonse Taylor	LG	6'5, 335	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Leon Brown	RT	6'6, 313	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Grant Hill	OL	6'6, 301	Fr.	**** (6.0)

6. We probably shouldn't just assume the line will be amazing again

There's a chance you might be able to follow the stop-the-run script a bit easier in 2013. (Not easy, mind you, but easier.) Leading rusher Eddie Lacy is gone, as are three All-American linemen.

Yes, the new starters are potentially going to be just fine -- especially sophomore back T.J. Yeldon (hold onto the ball, T.J.) -- but the line was historically strong last year, and there's no guarantee it will be as good. Alabama has a new offensive line coach (former FIU head coach Mario Cristobal), and as strange as it sounds, Alabama hasn't recruited at quite as high a level at OL as it has in other units. Yes, former all-world recruit Cyrus Kouandjio is still in the mix, and yes, All-American Chance Warmack was, like a few of this year's probable starters, only a three-star recruit.

Still, if you're looking for cracks in Alabama's armor, it is at least feasible that the offensive line will be a little bit glitchy after its near-perfection last year. Lacy and Yeldon were almost never touched in the backfield and didn't have to make their first move until past the line of scrimmage. Those are luxuries Yeldon and company won't always have this time around.

T.J. Yeldon. Matthew Emmons, USA Today.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	1	1	2	1
RUSHING	1	1	1	1
PASSING	7	4	8	1
Standard Downs		1	2	1
Passing Downs		3	6	2
Redzone		7	18	2

Q1 Rk	1	1st Down Rk	1
Q2 Rk	1	2nd Down Rk	12
Q3 Rk	6	3rd Down Rk	2
Q4 Rk	13

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	131.9	2.34	2.15	27.4%	59.5%	20.2%	135.6	6.5%	10.9%
Rank	3	5	7	1	17	48	17	16	9

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ed Stinson	DE	6'4, 292	Sr.	**** (5.8)	14	25.0	3.7%	8.5	3	0	0	0	0
Damion Square	DE				14	22.0	3.3%	4	3.5	0	1	0	1
Jesse Williams	NG				13	22.0	3.3%	2.5	1	0	2	0	0
Jeoffrey Pagan	DE	6'4, 290	Jr.	**** (6.0)	14	16.5	2.5%	4	1.5	0	0	1	0
Quinton Dial	DE				13	16.0	2.4%	5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Brandon Ivory	NG	6'4, 310	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	14.5	2.2%	1	0	0	0	0	1
D.J. Pettway	DL				13	5.5	0.8%	4	2.5	0	0	0	0
LaMichael Fanning	DE	6'7, 270	So.	**** (5.8)	8	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darren Lake	NG	6'3, 324	So.	*** (5.6)	8	2.0	0.3%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Wilson Love	NG	6'3, 286	So.	*** (5.6)
Dalvin Tomlinson	DE	6'2, 287	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Korren Kirven	DE	6'5, 281	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Jonathan Allen	DE	6'3, 263	Fr.	***** (6.1)
A'Shawn Robinson	NG	6'4, 320	Fr.	***** (6.1)
Dee Liner	DE	6'3, 281	Fr.	**** (6.0)
Tim Williams	DE	6'3, 235	Fr.	**** (5.9)
Darius Paige	NG	6'4, 314	Fr.	**** (5.8)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
C.J. Mosley	WILL	6'2, 232	Sr.	**** (5.9)	14	86.5	12.9%	8	4	2	2	1	1
Trey Depriest	MIKE	6'2, 245	So.	**** (5.8)	14	44.5	6.6%	4	0	0	2	0	0
Nico Johnson	WILL				14	39.0	5.8%	2	0	0	1	2	0
Adrian Hubbard	SAM	6'6, 252	Jr.	**** (5.8)	14	32.5	4.8%	11	7	0	1	3	0
Xzavier Dickson	JACK	6'3, 265	Jr.	**** (5.9)	14	22.5	3.3%	5	3.5	0	1	0	1
Denzel Devall	JACK	6'2, 250	So.	**** (5.8)	14	12.5	1.9%	3	2	0	0	0	1
Tyler Hayes	LB				13	12.0	1.8%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Tana Patrick	WILL	6'3, 238	Sr.	**** (6.0)	14	11.0	1.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Reggie Ragland	MIKE	6'2, 259	So.	**** (6.0)	11	6.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Dillon Lee	LB	6'4, 242	So.	**** (5.9)	8	1.0	0.1%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Ryan Anderson	SAM	6'2, 255	RSFr.	**** (5.9)
Reuben Foster	LB	6'1, 244	Fr.	***** (6.1)

7. I'll say it again:

When you need only a couple out of a large handful of star freshmen to thrive, odds are on your side. Alabama's defensive line got thinned out pretty well by graduation; the defense suffered a bit when nose guard Jesse Williams was banged up, and now he and three others among last year's top seven linemen are gone. When you throw in the loss of weakside linebacker Nico Johnson, you see a front seven in need of at least a little replenishing.

You also see a front seven that welcomes nine four- and five-star freshmen and redshirt freshmen into the potential mix. The depth at tackle is still a little bit questionable, but I can't even pretend to worry about this front seven, especially not with Ed Stinson, C.J. Mosley, Trey Depriest, Adrian Hubbard, and Xzavier Dickson returning.

(Side note: It really feels like Mosley's been there about 11 years, doesn't it?)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Vinnie Sunseri	S	6'0, 210	Jr.	*** (5.6)	14	44.5	6.6%	6	1.5	2	3	0	2
Dee Milliner	CB				13	44.0	6.5%	4	1.5	2	20	1	1
Robert Lester	S				14	36.0	5.3%	3.5	1.5	4	3	0	1
Deion Belue	CB	5'11, 183	Sr.	*** (5.6)	14	34.0	5.1%	6.5	0	2	7	1	1
Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix	S	6'1, 208	Jr.	***** (6.1)	14	30.0	4.5%	0.5	0	5	4	1	0
Nick Perry	S	6'1, 212	Sr.	**** (5.8)	14	28.0	4.2%	2	1	0	2	0	1
John Fulton	CB	6'0, 186	Sr.	**** (5.9)	12	13.5	2.0%	0	0	0	5	0	0
Landon Collins	S	6'0, 215	So.	***** (6.1)	14	12.5	1.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Geno Smith	CB	6'0, 186	So.	**** (5.9)	13	6.5	1.0%	0.5	0	0	2	0	0
Bradley Sylve	DB	5'11, 180	So.	**** (5.8)	12	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Jabriel Washington	DB	5'11, 185	So.	*** (5.7)	8	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Maurice Smith	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	**** (5.9)

8. One pressure point

I will say this, however: Cornerback is a bit of a concern. The front seven is so consistently strong at leveraging plays toward the middle of the field and gang-tackling. It is ridiculously difficult to run the ball on the Tide, and with the speed of their linebackers, they swallow whole most short passes, too.

But this system puts a lot of trust in its corners and isolates them downfield quite often. Plus, while Kirby Smart's blitzes are consistently well-timed, the standard four-man pass rush is typically only good, not great. (As Chris A. Brown put it, there isn't a "passionate pass-rusher" up front this year, just as there really hasn't been in previous years. That's not really how the system is designed.) So there's a chance that, at times, quarterbacks will have some time to look downfield.

And when they do, will a corner unit of Deion Belue (the new No. 1, taking over for Dee Milliner, one of the best play-making corners in the country last year) and either Geno Smith, John Fulton, or a newbie be able to handle what are some pretty strong No. 2 receivers in the SEC (LSU's Odell Beckham, et al)? And against more spread-out attacks like A&M's or Ole Miss', will the defensive backfield be deep enough with strong cover men?

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Cody Mandell	6'4, 213	Sr.	50	44.3	6	13	19	64.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Cade Foster	6'1, 224	Sr.	99	63.5	46	46.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jeremy Shelley			69-69	11-11	100.0%	0-0	N/A
Cade Foster	6'1, 224	Sr.	0-0	0-0	N/a	4-9	44.4%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Cyrus Jones	KR	5'10, 196	So.	10	25.0	0
Christion Jones	KR	5'11, 185	Jr.	8	26.6	1
Christion Jones	PR	5'11, 185	Jr.	21	10.1	0
Cyrus Jones	PR	5'10, 196	So.	8	7.6	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	28
Net Punting	18
Net Kickoffs	22
Touchback Pct	27
Field Goal Pct	45
Kick Returns Avg	23
Punt Returns Avg	46

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	vs. Virginia Tech	23
14-Sep	at Texas A&M	13
21-Sep	Colorado State	117
28-Sep	Ole Miss	29
5-Oct	Georgia State	125
12-Oct	at Kentucky	90
19-Oct	Arkansas	37
26-Oct	Tennessee	44
9-Nov	LSU	3
16-Nov	at Mississippi State	51
23-Nov	Chattanooga	NR
30-Nov	at Auburn	59

Five-Year F/+ Rk	1
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	1
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+14 / +13.6
TO Luck/Game	0.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (6, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-11.4

9. I mean … are you going to pick against them?

Alabama will need some luck again, I'm sure, to reel in a fourth title in five years. And the Tide will certainly have to prove themselves all over again at offensive line and cornerback. And at kicker, too, for that matter. And yes, if you're betting on Alabama versus the field, the smarter bet is probably on the field.

That said, are you really going to pick against the Tide? If they make the BCS title game again (and really, that's the toughest part), do you really think that, as things stand on paper in early June, Ohio State is a good bet to take down the Tide? Oregon with its new head coach? Stanford? Notre Dame? Louisville?

Our contrarian urges make us want to pick somebody different. But at this stage, before random injuries and bounces of a pointy-ball effect, Alabama is an easy No. 1, one of the easiest No. 1s I can remember.

10. SEC balance of power

This marks the end of our SEC previews. As has been done for each conference, let's wrap things up with a look at how I perceive the conference's balance of power at this point in the offseason:

Tier 1
1. Alabama

Tier 2
2. LSU
3. Texas A&M
4. Georgia
5. South Carolina
6. Florida

Tier 3
7. Ole Miss
8. Vanderbilt
9. Missouri
10. Mississippi State
11. Arkansas
12. Tennessee
13. Auburn

Tier 4
14. Kentucky

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