College Football

2013 Oregon State football's 10 things to know: Which was the outlier, 2011 or 2012?

After a rather sudden collapse in 2011, Oregon State bounced back in a major way last fall. Now Mike Riley's Beavers have to prove that 2011 was the oddity. For more OSU, visit Building The Dam.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Jul 10, 2013, 12:00pm EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Welcome back, Beavers

To the fans of teams like Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, maybe Virginia Tech, and other schools that have made a recent habit of taking lower-ranked recruits and producing higher-level results before fading in 2012, know this: There is hope. If Oregon State can bounce back from a mighty stumble, so can your team.

In 2007, Oregon State's defense ranked sixth in the country in Def. F/+. In 2011, it ranked 70th. In 2009, the Beavers' offense ranked 13th in Off. F/+; in 2011, it ranked 100th. Overall, OSU had ranked as high as 20th in the F/+ rankings (2010), had played at a nearly elite level on both sides of the ball rather recently, and had won between five and 10 games for 13 straight years going back to the first Mike Riley era in Corvallis.

But the wheels came flying off in 2011; a mixture of youth and injuries caused the Beavers to plunge to 3-9 and 88th. As I put it in last year's team preview, "one would have expected [head coach Mike] Riley's program to have a higher floor than that." It was alarming.

It was easy to expect a small rebound in 2012, really. Oregon State was healthy and quite a bit more experienced. But in an improving Pac-12, it was difficult to see the Beavers rebounding too terribly much in the standings, at least immediately.

But Riley had other ideas. His offense and defense both improved to top-25 levels, and his squad produced elite talent at receiver (Markus Wheaton, Brandin Cooks), defensive end (Scott Crichton), and cornerback (Jordan Poyer). Beyond that, however, the improvement in depth, which emerged directly from 2011's problems, was staggering. The offensive line was only decent, and there wasn't much of a pass rush beyond Crichton, but in a single season Oregon State went from nearly down-and-out to strong again. And after winning just eight combined games in 2010-11, the Beavers won nine in 2012.

Two of the four above stars are gone, but the depth that carried Oregon State in 2012 could do so again this fall. It can be done, Hawkeyes, Tigers, Razorbacks, Hokies, etc.

More: Bill C. previewing every Pac-12 team And every other team, too

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 \| Adj. Record: 9-4 \| Final F/+ Rk: 18
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
8-Sep	Wisconsin	10-7	W	23.8 - 11.0	W
22-Sep	at UCLA	27-20	W	32.6 - 25.1	W
29-Sep	at Arizona	38-35	W	35.5 - 31.2	W
6-Oct	Washington State	19-6	W	21.4 - 21.5	L
13-Oct	at BYU	42-24	W	56.3 - 23.1	W
20-Oct	Utah	21-7	W	22.2 - 19.4	W
27-Oct	at Washington	17-20	L	33.6 - 23.0	W
3-Nov	Arizona State	36-26	W	34.7 - 14.8	W
10-Nov	at Stanford	23-27	L	33.1 - 40.5	L
17-Nov	California	62-14	W	42.9 - 22.5	W
24-Nov	Oregon	24-48	L	33.1 - 27.9	W
1-Dec	Nicholls State	77-3	W	35.7 - 39.3	L
29-Dec	vs. Texas	27-31	L	18.9 - 19.5	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	32.5	37	20.6	22
Adj. Points Per Game	32.6	36	24.5	33

2. A late-season fade (that didn't really matter)

As good as last season was for Oregon State, it was close to being even better; three of the Beavers' four losses came away from home by four points or fewer. And if the defense hadn't faded late in the year, the Beavers might have taken home a win over Stanford.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 8 games): OSU 32.5, Opponent 21.3 (plus-11.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 5 games): OSU 32.7, Opponent 29.9 (plus-2.8)

In all, even if Oregon State had beaten both Washington and Stanford, there was no beating Oregon, which means there was no winning the Pac-12 North. (And in a way, the losses helped one thing -- if the Beavers beat Stanford, then their rival Ducks win the Pac-12 North.) OSU missed out on a better bowl, but that's down the list of complaints. The bigger issue is figuring out why the defense regressed by about eight points late in the year.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	43	23	29	20
RUSHING	101	54	36	57
PASSING	20	17	28	17
Standard Downs		21	32	19
Passing Downs		38	40	37
Redzone		39	47	37

Q1 Rk	28	1st Down Rk	18
Q2 Rk	17	2nd Down Rk	17
Q3 Rk	18	3rd Down Rk	67
Q4 Rk	57

3. A little-league offense

Here's where I call offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf's approach a little-league offense and mean it in the best possible way. Everybody gets to touch the ball.

Running back Storm Woods had 192 carries and 51 pass targets. Backup running backs Terron Ward and Malcolm Agnew got 131 carries and 19 targets. Markus Wheaton had 140 targets and 20 carries. Brandin Cooks had 97 targets and 19 carries. In 2012, Oregon State had three players getting at least eight touches per game, two more getting at least five, and three more getting at least two. This distribution is certainly common with pass-first offenses, but OSU was, and has for a while been, quite creative in the ways it goes about getting the ball to its stars. Now the Beavers just need to figure out how to run the ball a little better, especially in Wheaton's absence.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Sean Mannion

6'5, 214

Jr.

**** (5.8)

200

309

2,446

64.7%

3.7%

7.3

Cody Vaz

6'1, 202

Sr.

*** (5.5)

109

185

1,480

58.9%

10.6%

6.3

Richie Harrington

66.7%

0.0%

7.3

Brent VanderVeen

6'4, 217

RSFr.

*** (5.7)

4. Everybody loves a QB race, right? … Right?

As a freshman in 2011, Sean Mannion held his own, completing 65 percent of his passes and avoiding sacks reasonably well. A four-star recruit, Mannion was the presumptive starter in 2012 and did perfectly well, but when he got hurt, backup Cody Vaz took over and held his own as well. Mannion had a higher completion rate and averaged a yard better per attempt, but his interception rate (nearly four percent in two years) is too high for comfort; Vaz, meanwhile, is much better at avoiding killer mistakes but takes a lot of sacks -- and yes, the 10 sacks in the bowl game versus Texas devastated his average, but it was still more than twice as high as Mannion's before Texas -- and doesn't move the ball downfield as well.

Mannion is higher-risk, higher-reward at this point, and it appears that, after each recuperated from injuries this offseason (Mannion had a knee injury, Vaz an ankle injury), neither seized outright control of the job.

My gut says Mannion wins the job once again this year, but the picks are a problem, and it does bear mentioning that, in games in which Vaz was the primary signal-caller, OSU's per-game Adj. Points average was higher (33.5 for Vaz, 31.8 for Mannion). Whoever wins this race before the season begins will have to keep winning this race as the season unfolds.

Cody Vaz. Steve Dykes, Getty.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Storm Woods	RB	6'0, 197	So.	*** (5.5)	192	940	4.9	3.5	13	-1.1
Terron Ward	RB	5'7, 200	Jr.	*** (5.6)	68	415	6.1	6.4	6	+8.1
Malcolm Agnew	RB				63	269	4.3	3.8	1	-4.5
Markus Wheaton	SE				20	142	7.1	4.9	2	+3.1
Brandin Cooks	FL	5'10, 181	Jr.	**** (5.8)	19	82	4.3	4.4	0	-0.5
Tyler Anderson	FB	5'10, 211	Jr.	NR	13	51	3.9	6.3	3	-1.4
Cody Vaz	QB	6'1, 202	Sr.	*** (5.5)	6	6	1.0	3.5	0	-1.7
Sean Mannion	QB	6'5, 214	Jr.	**** (5.8)	6	4	0.7	3.1	0	-2.1
Chris Brown	RB	5'10, 198	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Damien Haskins	RB	5'9, 213	Fr.	*** (5.6)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Markus Wheaton

140

1235

64.3%

8.8

29.7%

73.6%

8.7

172.3

Brandin Cooks

5'10, 181

Jr.

**** (5.8)

1160

70.1%

12.0

20.6%

58.8%

12.0

161.8

Storm Woods

6'0, 197

So.

*** (5.5)

313

74.5%

6.1

10.8%

54.9%

6.2

43.7

Connor Hamlett

6'7, 264

Jr.

** (5.3)

403

80.0%

10.1

8.5%

52.5%

10.2

56.2

Colby Prince

136

51.4%

3.9

7.4%

57.1%

3.8

19.0

Kevin Cummings

SLOT

6'1, 180

Sr.

*** (5.5)

208

66.7%

7.7

5.7%

40.7%

8.1

29.0

Terron Ward

5'7, 200

Jr.

*** (5.6)

55.6%

4.4

3.8%

27.8%

2.8

11.0

Richard Mullaney

6'3, 192

So.

*** (5.6)

142

80.0%

9.5

3.2%

53.3%

8.9

19.8

Micah Hatfield

6'1, 180

Sr.

** (5.0)

75.0%

7.2

2.5%

100.0%

4.3

12.0

Tyler Anderson

5'10, 211

Jr.

44.4%

2.4

1.9%

88.9%

1.7

3.1

Obum Gwacham

6'5, 227

Jr.

** (5.2)

25.0%

1.5

1.7%

50.0%

1.6

1.7

Mitch Singler

SLOT

6'3, 208

Sr.

** (5.1)

100.0%

16.0

0.8%

100.0%

9.7

8.9

Caleb Smith

6'6, 258

So.

**** (5.8)

66.7%

6.3

0.6%

66.7%

7.2

2.7

Kellen Clute

6'5, 230

So.

** (5.4)

Malik Gilmore

WR-X

6'3, 214

RSFr.

*** (5.7)

J.C. Grim

SLOT

6'1, 185

RSFr.

Blair Cavanaugh

5'8, 172

RSFr.

Hunter Jarmon

6'0, 190

Fr.

*** (5.7)

5. How much difference can a single star make?

With the return of Woods and Ward at running back and four starters on the offensive line -- including three-year starter Michael Philipp and four-star sophomore Isaac Seumalo, who started every game as a true freshman -- it's fair to think the run game will improve in 2013. It wasn't bad last year, but it wasn't great either. Woods averaged 5.2 yards per intended touch (carries plus targets), while Ward, a more explosive runner, averaged 5.7, and while the line was solid in short-yardage situations, it could have created a few more opportunities for them. It very well could in 2013.

Of course, the running game might potentially have to improve to offset what might be a little bit of regression in the passing game. Brandin Cooks returns and should quite easily fill Markus Wheaton's role of No. 1 receiver; his per-target averages were outstanding, and he is one of the fastest receivers in the country. He is in no way bigger like Wheaton, but that is of only marginal concern. The bigger concern, then, is who replaces Cooks at No. 2.

The one-two combination made Oregon State interesting and explosive last year; the Beavers improved from 84th to 17th in Passing S&P+ and from 50th to 38th in Passing Downs S&P+; whoever wins the quarterback job should be perfectly solid, but a second option needs to emerge, and there is no obvious answer. Junior Obum Gwacham is, like Wheaton and Cooks, a track star in the offseason (he's a high-jumper, not a sprinter), but he didn't get a chance to prove much last year. And while there are a couple of interesting H-backs/tight ends in the mix as efficiency options (junior Connor Hamlett, sophomore Caleb Smith), who steps up in a big-play capacity?

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.6	2.86	3.09	39.7%	73.7%	17.4%	98.9	5.7%	8.5%
Rank	56	80	74	57	31	37	64	81	93

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Michael Philipp	LT	6'4, 329	Sr.	**** (6.0)	35 career starts
Colin Kelly	RT				25 career starts
Grant Enger	RG	6'6, 290	Sr.	*** (5.6)	21 career starts
Josh Andrews	LG	6'3, 303	Sr.	*** (5.6)	19 career starts
Isaac Seumalo	C	6'3, 300	So.	**** (6.0)	13 career starts
Derek Nielsen	LT				2 career starts
Justin Addie	LG	6'2, 329	So.	*** (5.5)
Roman Sapolu	C	6'2, 286	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Josh Mitchell	LG	6'2, 286	So.	*** (5.5)
Gavin Andrews	RT	6'5, 327	So.	*** (5.6)
David Keller	LT	6'3, 314	So.	*** (5.6)
Garrett Weinreich	LT	6'5, 310	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Grant Bays	RG	6'1, 300	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Nolan Hansen	RT	6'6, 269	RSFr.	NR
Sean Harlow	OL	6'5, 260	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	30	28	31	25
RUSHING	28	27	29	28
PASSING	50	29	27	28
Standard Downs		56	48	56
Passing Downs		7	14	7
Redzone		49	78	29

Q1 Rk	22	1st Down Rk	53
Q2 Rk	38	2nd Down Rk	18
Q3 Rk	39	3rd Down Rk	8
Q4 Rk	37

6. Shutting it down

Oregon State's defense had quite a few issues on standard downs last fall. Opponents had reason to doubt their ability to open holes against OSU's front seven, but they found quite a bit of success in throwing the ball to stay on schedule. OSU had no early-down pass rush to speak of, and a solid secondary stayed rather conservative in such situations.

The Beavers were very, very average on standard downs overall, but if they leveraged you into passing downs, your drive ended soon thereafter. Scott Crichton was able to pin his ears back as a one-man blitz (he was the only defender with more than three sacks), and agile, fast set of linebackers was able to clog the passing lanes, and corner Jordan Poyer was able to more than hold his own with opponents' No. 1 receivers. It was a delicate balance -- one-man pass rushes typically are -- but it worked in 2012.

There are two tasks, then, for OSU moving forward. First, the Beavers need to improve on standard downs so that they aren't as reliant on passing downs stops; second, they need to figure out how to replace Poyer and maintain their general passing downs dominance. Easy, right?

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	110.2	2.98	2.27	38.1%	66.7%	21.8%	76.2	3.0%	8.0%
Rank	23	71	10	53	50	33	99	106	40

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dylan Wynn	DE	6'2, 260	Jr.	*** (5.7)	13	35.5	5.2%	2	1	0	1	1	1
Scott Crichton	DE	6'3, 260	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	33.5	4.9%	17.5	9	0	3	1	2
Andrew Seumalo	DT				13	25.5	3.8%	4.5	3	0	0	0	0
Rudolf Fifita	DE				12	18.5	2.7%	5.5	2.5	0	0	1	1
Castro Masanial	DT				13	17.0	2.5%	5	2	0	0	0	0
Rusty Fernando	DE				13	9.5	1.4%	3.5	0	0	0	0	0
Devon Kell	DE	6'4, 234	Sr.	NR	13	6.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
John Braun	DE	6'5, 286	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Akeem Gonzales	DE	6'3, 235	So.	*** (5.6)	2	3.0	0.4%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Mana Rosa	DT	6'3, 275	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	3.0	0.4%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Ali’i Robins	DT	6'2, 272	So.	NR
Edwin Delva	DT	6'3, 295	Jr.	*** (5.7)
Siale Hautau	DT	6'1, 320	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Kyle Peko	DT	6'2, 295	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Charlie Tuaau	DE	6'4, 265	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Lyndon Tulimasealii	DE	6'4, 270	Jr.	*** (5.5)

7. Bring in the reinforcements

For what the Beavers lacked in pass rushing ability, they made up for in their ability to stuff the run. They sliced into the backfield against ground games with frequency and constantly stuffed draw plays and most scrambles.

But while Crichton and end Dylan Wynn return, the next four linemen do not, including both starting tackles. The third-leading returning tackler on the line is a former walk-on (Devon Kell) who logged 6.5 tackles last year.

That's a problem, one Riley is attempting to remedy with junior college transfers. He signed five JUCO linemen in February, and a couple of them (Edwin Delva and Siale Hautau) were already first-stringers by the time spring ball began. OSU desperately needs these tackle transfers to come through. If they do, and if JUCO ends Charlie Tuaau and Lyndon Tulimasealii can provide some pass rush ability to complement Crichton, then the defense could be just fine. But those are some serious ifs.

The good news is that the linebacker position should be perfectly solid with the return of Michael Doctor and D.J. Alexander. Doctor went from tackling machine to serious play-maker in 2012, while Alexander came out of nowhere to provide strongside help. There is almost no experience at middle linebacker, but it is difficult to worry much about the linebackers, at least compared to the other units on the defense.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Michael Doctor	WILL	6'0, 225	Sr.	*** (5.7)	13	63.5	9.4%	11	0	1	4	0	1
D.J. Alexander	SAM	6'2, 228	Jr.	*** (5.7)	13	45.5	6.7%	7	1.5	0	2	1	0
Feti 'Unga	MLB				13	38.5	5.7%	2	0	1	2	1	0
Rueben Robinson	SAM				13	19.0	2.8%	2	1	1	1	0	0
Joel Skotte	MLB	6'2, 229	So.	*** (5.6)	13	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Dyllon Mafi	WILL	6'2, 227	Sr.	*** (5.5)	2	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Jabral Johnson	SAM	6'1, 228	Jr.	*** (5.5)	8	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jaswha James	MLB	6'2, 231	So.	*** (5.5)	3	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Josh Williams	MLB	6'1, 232	Jr.	NR
Caleb Saulo	WILL	6'1, 224	RSFr.	** (5.4)

Secondary

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Rashaad Reynolds

5'11, 189

Sr.

*** (5.5)

64.5

9.5%

1.5

Ryan Murphy

6'3, 210

Jr.

*** (5.5)

52.0

7.7%

2.5

Tyrequek Zimmerman

6'0, 211

Jr.

*** (5.6)

51.0

7.5%

Jordan Poyer

42.5

6.3%

Sean Martin

6'0, 185

Sr.

** (5.3)

37.5

5.5%

Anthony Watkins

36.5

5.4%

5.5

Steven Christian

6'0, 189

Sr.

*** (5.5)

3.5

0.5%

Malcolm Marable

5'7, 167

Jr.

*** (5.7)

1.5

0.2%

Jovan Stevenson

5'11, 189

Sr.

*** (5.5)

1.0

0.1%

Cyril Noland-Lewis

6'0, 198

RSFr.

*** (5.6)

Zack Robinson

6'1, 200

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

Tyler Hasty

5'10, 185

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

Kendall Hill

6'1, 197

RSFr.

** (5.3)

Steven Nelson

5'10, 191

Jr.

*** (5.7)

Dashon Hunt

5'10, 175

Fr.

**** (5.8)

Brandon Arnold

6'0, 183

Fr.

*** (5.7)

8. Still some star power

Jordan Poyer had an incredible season for Oregon State last year, and his absence could certainly be a problem. But in Rashaad Reynolds and Sean Martin, the Beavers still have solid experience at the position, and while Reynolds didn't make as many big plays as Poyer (he also logged 20 more tackles, which means he was either better against the run or worse at preventing his man from catching passes), he actually defensed more passes (16 to 14). His ball skills are certainly solid in their own right, and he could be more than capable of stepping into the No. 1 role. And JUCO corner Steven Nelson could be ready to contribute soon, as well.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Keith Kostol	6'3, 197	Jr.	59	41.9	3	23	24	79.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Trevor Romaine	6'0, 200	Jr.	82	61.6	36	43.9%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Trevor Romaine	6'0, 200	Jr.	51-54	11-12	91.7%	5-6	83.3%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Terron Ward	KR	5'7, 200	Jr.	17	22.5	0
Malcolm Marable	KR	5'7, 167	Jr.	9	16.9	0
Jovan Stevenson	KR	5'11, 189	Sr.	5	14.6	0
Jordan Poyer	PR			10	7.1	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	54
Net Punting	35
Net Kickoffs	19
Touchback Pct	34
Field Goal Pct	6
Kick Returns Avg	113
Punt Returns Avg	91

9. Add one Brandin Cooks, stir to combine

How many hits per game do you think Brandin Cooks can withstand? Because he might be OSU's best receiver, kick returner and punt returner, all in one 180-pound package. If the Beavers can remedy last year's return woes, they could have an altogether solid special teams unit with the return of punter (and fair catches machine) Keith Kostol and kicker Trevor Romaine.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	Eastern Washinton	NR
7-Sep	Hawaii	100
14-Sep	at Utah	52
21-Sep	at San Diego State	53
28-Sep	Colorado	115
12-Oct	at Washington State	97
19-Oct	at California	68
26-Oct	Stanford	5
1-Nov	USC	17
16-Nov	at Arizona State	34
23-Nov	Washington	45
29-Nov	at Oregon	2

Five-Year F/+ Rk	35
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	38
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+8 / -1.5
TO Luck/Game	+3.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (8, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-3.9

10. Start fast

Oregon State was both lucky and good last year, riding almost four points of turnovers luck per game into a few close wins but still ranking high on a play-for-play basis as well. The question for the Beavers moving forward is simply this: Was last year a course correction, or does that come in 2013?

Typically, sudden surges like OSU's 2012 jump are followed by some level of regression toward the mean, and the turnovers luck could certainly factor into that. But Oregon State performed a lot closer to its recent historical levels in 2012 than it had in 2011. Which one was the outlier?

We won't necessarily know the answer to that for a while longer, but we do know this: the Beavers have a chance to start very, very fast. They better, at least; in terms of Football Outsiders projections, they face their seven worst opponents in their first seven games. Trips to Utah, San Diego State, Washington State, and California are anything but cakewalks, but if OSU is going to approach last year's win totals, the games are almost must-wins.

I like this team quite a bit. Either quarterback will suffice, the run game should improve a bit, Brandin Cooks is awesome, Scott Crichton is awesome, and the back seven of the defense is deep and experienced enough to absorb a bit of turnover with minimal drop-off. The question marks -- defensive tackle, No. 2 receiver, etc. -- will prevent the Beavers from seriously threatening for the North crown, but they should still find a way to get to another bowl and play at a high enough level to put 2011 pretty far in the rear view. But if Cooks gets hurt, or if the new defensive tackles don't take, then the drop-off could be rather stark in a conference full of strong, improving programs.