2013 Utah football's 10 things to know: Stemming the tide (or trying to)

After a season marred by injury and inconsistency, Kyle Whittingham's Utes head into 2013 with drastically lower expectations than they had a year ago. Can a pair of identity changes -- Dennis Erickson joining the offensive staff, speed becoming a larger defensive focus -- change course for a suddenly reeling program? For more Utes, visit Block U.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Jul 11, 2013, 11:00am EDT

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1. A poorly-timed slide

When Utah was announced as the 12th member of the Pac-12, we heard a lot about the impact such a move might have on recruiting for a program that was already thriving on the field. From late-September 2007 to early-December 2010, Kyle Whittingham's Utes went 39-4; they were in the middle of a nine-year bowl streak, had finished the 2008 season second in the AP polls after going undefeated and whipping Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide in the Sugar Bowl ('Bama is 4-0 in bowls/BCS title games since then), had finished 10-3 in 2009, and began 2010 8-0, reaching sixth in the country.

They had done all of this from a mid-major conference, and now they were going to start recruiting at a major level? Utah's ceiling seemed awfully high.

Sure enough, Utah's recruiting rankings have taken a turn for the better. From 2005-10, Utah's average recruiting ranking, via Rivals.com, was 53.5; only once did the Utes rank higher than 44th. In the last three years, the average has improved to 36.3; the 2012 class ranked 28th.

Let's just say that the 2012 class needs to live up to its billing, and then some. The Pac-12 bump better be real because the Utes need some help. In terms of F/+ rankings, Utah ranked 30th, 11th, 29th, and 28th from 2007-10, a consistent top-30 team. But a late-season funk in 2010 carried over into 2011, their first in the Pac-12. Utah fell to 55th that year, and although the Utes still managed eight wins and another bowl bid, the bowl streak ended in 2012, when they sank to 66th and 5-7. Injuries did Utah no major favor in 2012, but the Utes just didn't have enough options, and now the depth chart has been severely thinned out by graduation and attrition.

If Utah is going to rally in the next year or two, it is going to be around members of these recent recruiting classes. Hopefully they're good ones.

More: Bill C. previews every Pac-12 team And every other team, too

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 \| Adj. Record: 5-7 \| Final F/+ Rk: 66
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
30-Aug	Northern Colorado	41-0	W	20.2 - 10.3	W
7-Sep	at Utah State	20-27	L	23.4 - 21.4	W
15-Sep	BYU	24-21	W	22.0 - 18.9	W
22-Sep	at Arizona State	7-37	L	20.4 - 31.8	L
4-Oct	USC	28-38	L	21.2 - 35.8	L
13-Oct	at UCLA	14-21	L	23.3 - 22.2	W
20-Oct	at Oregon State	7-21	L	18.1 - 19.1	L
27-Oct	California	49-27	W	26.0 - 37.8	L
3-Nov	Washington State	49-6	W	35.9 - 18.7	W
10-Nov	at Washington	15-34	L	14.7 - 34.8	L
17-Nov	Arizona	24-34	L	24.9 - 28.6	L
23-Nov	at Colorado	42-35	W	21.2 - 33.2	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	26.7	76	25.1	50
Adj. Points Per Game	22.6	111	26.1	46

2. A few hints, but not really

Of course, that's the numbers perspective. The anecdotal perspective basically tells us the same thing. Utah made the jump from the Mountain West to the Pac-12 last season, struggled at quarterback, fell stagnant on offense and STILL almost made it to the Pac-12 title game. A 17-14 upset loss to Colorado, fueled in part by three missed field goals, prevented that from happening, but an 8-5 debut season and a ton of returning experience have made folks in Salt Lake City pretty optimistic. Like, really, really optimistic. Head coach Kyle Whittingham? Excited. The folks at Block U? Thinking big. The local media? Saying "loaded" a lot. [...]

[W]ith another strong defense, another Top 25 special teams unit, and potentially the most favorable schedule in the Pac-12, you don't really have to trust the offense to expect quite a few wins for the Utes this fall. If the offense does improve -- if [John] White truly establishes himself as an elite back, if [quarterback Jordan] Wynn proves his allegedly high ceiling, etc. -- then a season with double-digit wins is not only a possibility; it is of high probability.

Expectations were high last year. (And in my defense, Paul Myerberg's expectations were equally high.) And Utah didn't even come close to meeting them.

I was high on the defense, and the Utes plummeted from 16th in Def. F/+ to 57th. I figured the offense would improve, and it did, but only from 111th to 89th. Wynn couldn't overcome constant shoulder injuries and retired from football two weeks into the season. (He's now a graduate assistant under former Utah offensive coordinator Norm Chow at Hawaii.) Jon Hays succeeded him, completed 18 of 27 passes for 196 yards and two scores in a win over BYU, then struggled and was replaced by a true freshman, Travis Wilson. Running back John White was limited with injury and mostly ineffective when healthy, at least until late in the season. The offensive line struggled. No receiver stepped up consistently.

In other words, the offense was not nearly good enough to account for a defense that faded rather dramatically

Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): Utah 21.9, Opponent 16.9 (plus-5.0)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 6 games): Opponent 27.6, Utah 24.2 (minus-3.4)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 3 games): Opponent 32.2, Utah 20.3 (minus-11.9)

A lack of continuity kills. Only two of Utah's top four defensive linemen, two of the top five linebackers, and one of 12 defensive backs played in all 12 games for the Utes last season. The effect was obvious. To say the least, it is difficult to field an effective team when its supposed strength (the D) is basically playing its second string.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	108	95	104	92
RUSHING	93	102	111	94
PASSING	100	79	70	79
Standard Downs		111	108	109
Passing Downs		66	84	51
Redzone		52	83	23

Q1 Rk	107	1st Down Rk	107
Q2 Rk	71	2nd Down Rk	79
Q3 Rk	78	3rd Down Rk	94
Q4 Rk	115

3. An interesting combination

Kyle Whittingham made some waves last year by bringing on Brian Johnson, his 2008 starting quarterback, as offensive coordinator when Norm Chow left to take the Hawaii job. As I've written before, it has been a while since Chow had fielded a particularly good offense anywhere, and his 2011 Utes offense set a low bar. Johnson's 2012 offense cleared the bar, but only by so much. The Utes were still awful at running the football, and while the passing game improved, it was still below average.

Whittingham made an equally interesting hire this past offseason. In early February, he brought on former Miami and Arizona State head coach Dennis Erickson as co-coordinator. It's been a long time since the 66-year-old Erickson was anything but a head coach (1981 at San Jose State, to be exact), but in theory he could bring to the table exactly what Utah lacked last season. The Utes played at a slow pace and were in no way aggressive with the football, racking up few big plays and playing seemingly passive football on standard downs. That Travis Wilson was able to pull off a little bit of passing-downs magic as a true freshman is exciting, but he faced far too many passing downs; all Utah quarterbacks did, for that matter.

If Erickson can introduce some urgency, aggressiveness, and identity into the Utah offense, that could only be considered a good thing. It's possible that the run game won't be any better, but Erickson has had plenty of strong passing games over the years. His presence should be good for Travis Wilson.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Travis Wilson	6'6, 240	So.	*** (5.7)	128	204	1,311	62.7%	7	6	14	6.4%	5.6
Jon Hays				63	104	653	60.6%	7	2	8	7.1%	5.5
Jordan Wynn				25	38	247	65.8%	2	1	3	7.3%	5.3
Adam Schulz	6'1, 205	So.	NR	2	2	52	100.0%	0	0	0	0.0%	26.0
Brandon Cox	6'2, 200	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
John White	RB				218	1,041	4.8	4.3	8	-9.8
Kelvin York	RB	5'11, 220	Sr.	**** (5.8)	60	273	4.6	2.8	3	-4.5
Travis Wilson	QB	6'6, 240	So.	*** (5.7)	50	133	2.7	2.7	4	-10.9
Jarrell Oliver	RB	5'8, 213	So.	*** (5.7)	23	52	2.3	0.9	0	-5.5
Lucky Radley	RB	5'8, 187	Jr.	*** (5.6)	15	46	3.1	1.5	1	-1.3
Dres Anderson	WR	6'1, 187	Jr.	*** (5.6)	14	83	5.9	2.9	0	+2.3
Reggie Dunn	WR				13	58	4.5	6.1	0	+0.1
James Poole	RB	6'0, 196	So.	NR	9	47	5.2	1.9	0	+0.2
Karl Williams	RB	6'0, 243	Sr.	** (5.2)	7	37	5.3	4.2	0	+0.5
Devontae Booker	RB	5'11, 205	Jr.	*** (5.5)

4. Any hope for the run game?

In 2011, Utah ranked 108th in Rushing S&P+ and 107th in Adj. Line Yards, just putrid numbers for a team that was basing its offensive identity on the ground game. In 2012, the Utes passed a little bit more but still couldn't run, ranking 102nd and 93rd in the two categories, respectively. Technically there was improvement there, but this was still an awful running game; and in 2013, John White and three multi-year starting linemen are gone.

Now, losing starters isn't as big a deal when the starters aren't very good. White teased us with occasionally dominant performances in 2011-12 -- 22 carries for 174 yards versus BYU, 36 for 171 versus Pitt, 35 for 205 versus Oregon State, 33 for 167 versus UCLA in 2011; 22 for 142 versus Washington and 20 for 168 versus Colorado in 2012 -- and at the very least tackle Sam Brenner was good enough to get all-conference attention. But there was simply no consistency here. In 2012, White struggled with an ankle issue, missed the BYU game, and rushed 58 times for just 198 yards in the four games after he returned. But even a hobbled White was seemingly better than the supporting cast behind him. Kelvin York, Jarrell Oliver, and Lucky Radley showed almost no explosiveness whatsoever last season; now they're the experienced, old hands.

Despite the losses up front, Utah's line should still be experienced. Of the four returnees with starting experience, three are seniors; the other is sophomore Jeremiah Poutasi, an enormous former four-star recruit who will fill Brenner's role at left tackle this year. And while the line struggled last season, it can blame continuity for some of the issues: in the first eight games, Utah had to start five different line combinations. Stay healthy, and you're already ahead of the game.

If the running game can at least improve a little more, the passing game should match the improvement. Wilson at least held his own last year and came to Salt Lake City with a pretty good pedigree. Dres Anderson and Kenneth Scott have shown flashes in their first couple of seasons (though neither excelled amid last year's QB derby), senior Anthony Denham might be ready for a bigger role, tight end Jake Murphy is a keeper, and four-star JUCO transfer Andre Lewis will certainly have plenty of opportunity for playing time.

This isn't a great receiving corps by any means, but Erickson should be able to coax some decent production out of it.

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Dres Anderson

6'1, 187

Jr.

*** (5.6)

365

61.0%

6.2

17.8%

50.8%

6.0

46.1

Kenneth Scott

6'3, 211

Jr.

**** (5.8)

360

57.1%

6.4

16.9%

51.8%

6.5

45.4

DeVonte Christopher

300

51.2%

7.0

13.0%

72.1%

7.4

37.9

Jake Murphy

6'4, 252

Jr.

**** (5.8)

349

78.6%

8.3

12.7%

54.8%

8.4

44.0

Luke Matthews

204

67.9%

7.3

8.5%

67.9%

7.2

25.7

John White

122

55.6%

4.5

8.2%

51.9%

4.6

15.4

Anthony Denham

6'4, 222

Sr.

*** (5.7)

135

73.3%

9.0

4.5%

60.0%

9.0

17.0

Reggie Dunn

85.7%

5.3

4.2%

64.3%

5.0

9.3

David Rolf

76.9%

7.4

3.9%

38.5%

6.9

12.1

Karl Williams

6'0, 243

Sr.

** (5.2)

100.0%

9.2

2.7%

66.7%

9.2

10.5

Westlee Tonga

6'4, 252

Sr.

** (5.3)

57.1%

5.6

2.1%

14.3%

8.5

4.9

Sean Fitzgerald

6'3, 200

Sr.

** (5.2)

100.0%

15.3

1.2%

50.0%

12.9

7.7

Brian Allen

6'3, 208

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

Andre Lewis

6'3, 210

Jr.

**** (5.8)

Greg Reese

6'5, 250

Jr.

*** (5.6)

Delshawn McClellon

5'9, 166

Fr.

*** (5.5)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.7	2.63	3.50	35.9%	55.6%	18.8%	124.4	4.0%	6.3%
Rank	93	103	33	96	115	58	42	51	62

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Sam Brenner	LT				26 career starts; 2012 2nd All-Pac-12
Tevita Stevens	C				35 career starts
Miles Mason	RG				21 career starts
Jeremiah Poutasi	LT	6'5, 345	So.	**** (5.8)	10 career starts
Vyncent Jones	C	6'3, 305	Sr.	*** (5.5)	9 career starts
Jeremiah Tofaeono	LG	6'2, 320	Sr.	*** (5.5)	6 career starts
Percy Taumoelau	LG	6'4, 310	Sr.	*** (5.5)	2 career starts
Siaosi Aiono	RT	6'2, 305	So.	*** (5.7)
Carlos Lozano	LT	6'6, 380	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Junior Salt	RG	6'2, 325	Jr.	**** (5.8)
Derek Tuimauga	RT	6'4, 320	So.	*** (5.5)
Hiva Lutui	C	6'2, 300	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Andrew Albers	OL	6'7, 310	Jr.	** (5.3)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	36	51	65	48
RUSHING	23	34	62	18
PASSING	65	79	67	81
Standard Downs		60	75	52
Passing Downs		49	68	37
Redzone		109	115	91

Q1 Rk	50	1st Down Rk	69
Q2 Rk	40	2nd Down Rk	28
Q3 Rk	93	3rd Down Rk	71
Q4 Rk	42

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109.6	2.91	2.15	38.4%	72.4%	22.3%	101.2	8.3%	6.2%
Rank	24	59	7	57	88	26	60	5	64

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Trevor Reilly	DE	6'5, 245	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	51.5	8.2%	6.5	4.5	1	4	3	1
Nate Orchard	DE	6'3, 245	Jr.	*** (5.7)	12	40.0	6.3%	9.5	3	0	4	2	3
Star Lotulelei	DT				12	33.5	5.3%	10	5	0	4	3	4
Jason Whittingham	DE	6'2, 234	So.	** (5.2)	9	26.0	4.1%	2.5	1	0	1	2	0
Joe Kruger	DE				11	24.5	3.9%	8	6	1	1	2	0
Dave Kruger	DT				11	20.0	3.2%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	1
Tenny Palepoi	DT	6'2, 300	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	16.5	2.6%	3	2	0	0	0	0
Viliseni Fauonuku	DT	5'11, 285	So.	*** (5.5)	12	10.0	1.6%	4.5	1	0	0	1	0
Niasi Leota	DE				10	4.5	0.7%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Thretton Palamo	DE	6'2, 255	Sr.	NR	9	3.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
L.T. Tuipulotu	DT	6'1, 305	Sr.	*** (5.7)	3	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Latu Heimuli	DT	6'3, 305	Sr.	**** (5.8)
Hunter Dimick	DE	6'3, 270	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Stevie Tu'ikolovatu	DT	6'1, 320	RSFr.	NR
Sese Ianu	DT	6'2, 305	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Moana Ofahengaue	DE	6'3, 235	Fr.	*** (5.7)

5. A need for speed

When your defensive line is the primary source of your identity, and when you lose basically three of your top four defensive linemen, it's time for a reboot, whether you like it or not. And in the absence of players like tackle Star Lotulelei, Whittingham and defensive coordinator Kalani Sitake have decided to get smaller and faster. Last year's starting line averaged 6'5, 281; this year's projected starting line: 6'2, 266. Linebackers Trevor Reilly and Jason Whittingham have been converted to ends -- that move should suit Reilly, a pretty good pass rusher, just fine. Plus, safety Brian Blechen has moved to linebacker.

Previous Utah defenses were predicated on big lines eating up blockers and tremendous safeties preventing big plays; now, perhaps to counter the speed of Pac-12 offenses, Utah is going with something different. Change doesn't automatically guarantee success, but with so many departures, especially up front, the Utes had to try something.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Brian Blechen	STUD	6'2, 225	Sr.	*** (5.7)	9	48.5	7.7%	3.5	0	1	5	1	0
L.T. Filiaga	ROV	6'0, 250	So.	*** (5.6)	11	22.5	3.6%	2	0	0	0	1	0
V.J. Fehoko	MLB	5'11, 225	Jr.	**** (5.8)	12	22.0	3.5%	2	1	0	0	0	0
Jacoby Hale	ROV	6'0, 230	Jr.	*** (5.6)	7	22.0	3.5%	3	0	0	2	0	0
Dave Fagergren	LB				12	21.0	3.3%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Boo Andersen	STUD				10	15.0	2.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Reshawn Hooker	STUD	6'0, 220	So.	*** (5.7)	3	8.5	1.3%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Nick Brown	LB				12	7.0	1.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Victor Spikes	ROV				8	7.0	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jared Norris	ROV	6'1, 230	So.	*** (5.7)	7	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Travis Still	LB	6'1, 225	So.	*** (5.7)	12	1.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Uaea Masina	MLB	6'2, 215	Fr.	*** (5.6)

6. A new need for blitzing

Utah had one of the best standard downs sack rates in the country last year; that means the Utes were able to generate heat without blitzing. Lotulelei and Joe Kruger were both quite strong in this regard, but all returning non-linemen combined for just one sack last season.

Even though Reilly could be a strong, adept pass-rush specialist, Utah will likely have to blitz quite a bit more in 2013; that's a problem considering Reilly was last year's best blitzer. And here's where the impact of recent recruiting could be felt the most, for better or worse. Underclassmen like L.T. Filiaga, Reshawn Hooker, freshman linebacker Uaea Masina, and perhaps even safeties like Eric Rowe and JUCO transfer Tevin Carter will play a major role in creating a new, interesting pass rush. If they're good at it, then the pieces could fall into place nicely. But if the increased speed cannot create increased havoc, then Utah's weaknesses are still weak, and its strengths (in this case, run defense) probably get weaker.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Eric Rowe	FS	6'1, 205	Jr.	*** (5.7)	10	51.5	8.2%	0.5	0	1	5	0	1
Reggie Topps	CB				11	39.0	6.2%	6.5	4	1	4	2	1
Moe Lee	CB				12	28.0	4.4%	1	0	1	6	0	1
Ryan Lacy	CB				11	19.5	3.1%	3	0	2	5	1	1
Quade Chappuis	FS	5'11, 200	Sr.	NR	5	19.5	3.1%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Tyron Morris-Edwards	SS	6'1, 200	Jr.	NR	9	12.5	2.0%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Lewis Walker	NB				10	11.5	1.8%	0	0	0	2	1	0
Keith McGill (2011)	CB	6'3, 205	Sr.	**** (5.8)	5	9.0	1.3%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Michael Walker	NB	5'9, 182	Sr.	*** (5.5)	10	6.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Terrell Reese	FS				9	6.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Wykie Freeman	DB	5'11, 179	Jr.	*** (5.5)	4	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Honeycutt	DB	5'10, 181	Sr.	** (5.4)	12	3.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Joseph Bryant	DB	6'3, 208	So.	*** (5.6)	4	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Joseph Smith	NB	5'9, 189	Jr.	*** (5.7)
Charles Henderson	S	5'9, 185	So.	** (5.4)
Reginald Porter	CB	5'11, 190	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Justin Thomas	CB	5'9, 173	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Davion Orphey	CB	6'0, 187	Jr.	*** (5.7)
Tevin Carter	FS	6'1, 213	Jr.	*** (5.5)

7. A transfusion

It's probably not a good thing that all four cornerbacks on Utah's summer two-deep (PDF) weren't on the two-deep at the end of last season. Gone are Reggie Topps, Moe Lee, and Ryan Lacy (combined: 10.5 tackles for loss, 19 passes defensed); in their place are names like Keith McGill (a former star recruit who has played only five games in two years because of a shoulder injury), redshirt freshmen Justin Thomas and Reginald Porter, and junior college transfer Davion Orphey.

Now, Thomas was also a star recruit, and Orphey is a reasonably big corner who was good enough to also play running back as a freshman at Santa Ana Community College. And while last year's corners were decent play-makers, they also allowed quite a few plays. Some new blood might not hurt, though depth could be a serious issue.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Sean Sellwood			38	46.5	4	16	9	65.8%
Tom Hackett	6'0, 190	So.	25	38.9	1	10	15	100.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Nick Marsh			60	62.7	25	41.7%
Coleman Petersen			1	11	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Coleman Petersen			38-39	5-7	71.4%	3-6	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Reggie Dunn	KR			10	51.3	4
Charles Henderson	KR	5'9, 185	So.	7	14.6	0
Dallin Rogers	KR			6	6.0	0
Charles Henderson	PR	5'9, 185	So.	26	5.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	27
Net Punting	29
Net Kickoffs	33
Touchback Pct	41
Field Goal Pct	102
Kick Returns Avg	6
Punt Returns Avg	104

8. Any hope of replacing Reggie Dunn?

In three seasons, Reggie Dunn caught only 31 passes and scored just one receiving touchdown. On an offense desperate for weapons in 2012, he averaged just 5.3 yards per target on about one target per game. He was a non-factor in the offense for the most part; but the Pittsburgh Steelers are still giving him a strong look this summer because of his oh-my-god speed and kick return abilities. In just 48 career kick returns, Dunn scored five touchdowns and averaged 30.9 yards per return; that's ridiculous.

Because of Dunn, kick returns were a strength for Utah's special teams unit in 2012. But without Dunn and other strong field position weapons like punter Sean Sellwood and kickoffs guy Nick Marsh, Utah's strong special teams unit could struggle in 2013.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
29-Aug	Utah State	46
7-Sep	Weber State	NR
14-Sep	Oregon State	25
21-Sep	at BYU	27
3-Oct	UCLA	43
12-Oct	Stanford	5
19-Oct	at Arizona	30
26-Oct	at USC	17
9-Nov	Arizona State	34
16-Nov	at Oregon	2
23-Nov	at Washington State	97
30-Nov	Colorado	115

Five-Year F/+ Rk	32
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	33
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+4 / +7.3
TO Luck/Game	-1.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (6, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-2.3

9. Holy War checklist

Three years ago, Utah and BYU played each other as conference rivals for the final time. Since 2011, the two programs have gone off in their own direction; Utah upgraded from the Mountain West to the Pac-12, while BYU set about on a "Notre Dame of the west" course, choosing to go independent. Let's go to the scorecard to see who's faring better.

Average F/+ Ranking: BYU 31.5 (was 40.0 in the two years prior), Utah 60.5 (was 28.5)
Record: BYU 18-8, Utah 13-12
Record vs. BCS conference opponents (and Boise State): Utah 11-11, BYU 4-7
Two-Year Recruiting Rank: Utah 33, BYU 70
Holy War wins: Utah 2, BYU 0

The record is mixed thus far. BYU's performance has been more consistently strong (and unlike Utah, BYU hasn't had the luxury of going 3-1 versus Washington State and Colorado), but the Utes have taken both head-to-head matchups and have taken better advantage of their improved recruiting opportunities. BYU is more well-positioned for success in 2013, but will that remain the story moving forward?

10. Win your home games

In 2013, Utah hosts Utah State, Weber State, Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona State and Colorado. The Utes are projected higher than just two of those seven (Weber State, Colorado), but they obviously won't be significant underdogs against teams like Utah State, Oregon State, Arizona State, or possibly UCLA. Figure out a way to go 4-3 at home, and a return to bowl eligibility is a distinct possibility; at that point, the Utes would just have to figure out how to go 2-1 at BYU, Arizona and Washington State, basically.

A year ago, I was talking myself into a potential 10-2 season for Utah; now I have to spin to get to 6-6 or 7-5. The last year did not go as planned for Whittingham and his Utes, but better health and new identities for both the offense and defense will give them a shot at a rebound.

With so many Pac-12 teams improving, it will be hard for Utah to catch up after losing so much ground last year; but it won't be impossible if some of the key, highly-touted youngsters and newcomers -- Travis Wilson, Andre Lewis, Jeremiah Poutasi, L.T. Filiaga, Reshawn Hooker, Justin Thomas, Davion Orphey -- come through.