2013 Indiana Football's 10 things to know: To matter in Bloomington

Indiana pulled off a rare feat in 2012: a semi-satisfying, encouraging four-win season. Can third-year coach Kevin Wilson patch the holes in the defense enough to ride an absurdly easy home slate to six wins and Indiana's second bowl bid in 20 years? For more on Indiana, visit The Crimson Quarry.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Jul 17, 2013, 12:00pm EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Moments matter

In the absence of titles, national and conference, we strive for great wins. And in the absence of those, we aim for moments. If nothing else in 2012, Indiana had a moment. In an early-November Numerical, I wrote this following Indiana's 24-21 win over Iowa:

61. Months since Indiana had won back-to-back conference games. The Hoosiers beat Iowa and Minnesota in late-September and early-October 2007, then lost 36 of their next 40 Big Ten games before pulling out wins over Illinois (31-17 on October 27) and Iowa (24-21 on November 3). Kevin Wilson's squad is now 4-5 and, yes, still has a chance of representing the ineligibility-plagued Big Ten Leaders Division. If they can beat Wisconsin at home this Saturday, in their biggest game since who-knows-when, they will actually possibly become the favorites to do so ... at least until they lose at Penn State the next Saturday.

For a week in November, it looked as if Indiana might make it to the Big Ten title game. Sure, it would have been on a technicality (Ohio State and Penn State being ineligible for the postseason). And sure, the feeling lasted only a week before Wisconsin absolutely destroyed the Hoosiers.

But for a week, there was buzz. The last time there had been any hope for quality football in Bloomington was in 2007, when the Hoosiers were making a run to the Insight Bowl. And the last time there had been hope for a conference title in November, no matter the technicalities, was probably 1993, when they entered November at 7-1 (4-1 in conference) and 17th in the polls before dropping heartbreakers to No. 19 Penn State (38-31) and No. 5 Ohio State (23-17) on the road.

It had been a while, in other words. Head coach Kevin Wilson enters his third year on the job with just a 5-19 record to show for his efforts. Granted, the product improved greatly in 2012 (from 1-11 and 105th in the F/+ rankings in 2011 to 4-8 and 74th last fall), but the defense has yet to even threaten to come around -- it ranked 99th in Def. F/+ in 2010 and has ranked 117th and 110th, respectively, in Wilson's first two years; still, the offense has life, and the 2013 team has enough experience to take another solid step forward.

With Ohio State once again eligible for the postseason and Wisconsin still being Wisconsin, the tiny window for a conference title game bid has probably closed for quite a long time, but there are plenty of other, more reasonable and realistic goals on the table moving forward. The first one: six wins.

2. Recruits noticed

There are 62 returnees listed below. One received a four-star rating from Rivals.com. Meanwhile, in Indiana's incoming class of 23 recruits, there are five. Wilson reeled in three of the state's six four-star recruits (a five-star linebacker went to Notre Dame), and four of the top nine recruits overall. That is rather unprecedented. (Meanwhile, in-state rival Purdue nabbed one of the top nine.) And of the five four-star recruits in this class (including players from Florida and Georgia), at least three, and maybe four, will play on the defensive side of the ball, where the most help is needed.

Wilson will need to win more games to keep up this increased pace, but he is raising the ceiling in Bloomington, even if his 2013 squad won't quite be ready to reach that ceiling.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 \| Adj. Record: 5-7 \| Final F/+ Rk: 74
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	Indiana State	24-17	W	24.7 - 38.4	L
8-Sep	at Massachusetts	45-6	W	28.1 - 26.1	W
15-Sep	Ball State	39-41	L	27.6 - 23.8	W
29-Sep	at Northwestern	29-44	L	35.0 - 43.3	L
6-Oct	Michigan State	27-31	L	34.2 - 32.5	W
13-Oct	Ohio State	49-52	L	35.5 - 32.5	W
20-Oct	at Navy	30-31	L	28.3 - 24.3	W
27-Oct	at Illinois	31-17	W	17.7 - 34.5	L
3-Nov	Iowa	24-21	W	30.1 - 30.4	L
10-Nov	Wisconsin	14-62	L	22.3 - 45.8	L
17-Nov	at Penn State	22-45	L	33.0 - 39.6	L
24-Nov	at Purdue	35-56	L	28.7 - 47.5	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	30.8	51	35.3	104
Adj. Points Per Game	28.8	59	34.9	112

3. The fade had begun before Wisconsin came to town

The loss to Wisconsin put a humbling set of punctuation marks at the end of Indiana's meager conference title hopes. But after playing at a reasonably average level over the first half of the season, the Hoosiers had already begun to fade as they were beating Illinois and Iowa. (They benefited mostly from the simple fact that Iowa wasn't very good and Illinois was terrible.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 7 games): Opponent 31.6, Indiana 30.5 (minus-1.1)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 5 games): Opponent 39.6, Indiana 26.4 (minus-13.2)

Despite the late, drastic fade, this was a truly interesting, competitive team for most of the season's first two months. The Hoosiers lost by four to Michigan State and by three to Ohio State, and the home loss to Ball State didn't end up looking as bad as we began to learn that Ball State was pretty decent. A 2-4 record in one-possession games prevented the Hoosiers from sneaking out a 6-6 record and bowl eligibility, but there was promise in the Hoosiers' early-season play.

(And yes, part of that promise simply comes from the low bar that Indiana has set in recent decades. Still, as I like to say, improvement is improvement.)

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	34	52	64	43
RUSHING	96	86	92	79
PASSING	17	40	48	40
Standard Downs		51	79	39
Passing Downs		45	48	43
Redzone		24	32	21

Q1 Rk	35	1st Down Rk	44
Q2 Rk	55	2nd Down Rk	80
Q3 Rk	86	3rd Down Rk	72
Q4 Rk	67

4. Kevin Wilson knows offense

From his days as Randy Walker's offensive coordinator at Northwestern to his nine seasons as offensive coordinator (or co-coordinator) at Oklahoma, Kevin Wilson has been both innovative and successful. At Northwestern, he helped to design the modern spread offense, and at Oklahoma, he pushed the tempo in a way that no other team could (until Oregon came along). The odds are good that he is going to produce no matter where he goes.

After ranking 60th in Off. F/+ in Bill Lynch's final season as head coach, Indiana sank to 82nd in Wilson's first season, but with some new pieces in place, the Hoosiers improved to 42nd in 2012, powered mostly by a solid passing game and wonderful redzone efficiency.

Wilson and offensive coordinator Seth Littrell coaxed 311 passing yards and 31 points per game out of a unit made up mostly of unheralded recruits and a revolving door at quarterback. The Hoosiers had high-paced, pass-first offense that distributed the ball well (three players rushed at least 50 times, six were targeted with at least 40 passes), and considering that virtually everybody returns on offense, the production should improve further in 2013. Opponents were able to adjust as a game unfolded (Indiana was 35th in the first quarter, 55th in the second, and worse in the third and fourth), and talent levels will still form a glass ceiling, but there's no reason to think this can't be at least a Top 30-35 offense.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Cameron Coffman

6'2, 203

Jr.

*** (5.5)

247

407

2,734

60.7%

3.1%

6.4

Nate Sudfeld

6'5, 234

So.

*** (5.6)

632

62.2%

4.7%

7.2

Tre Roberson

6'0, 200

So.

*** (5.6)

368

66.0%

2.0%

7.0

5. QB vs. QB vs. QB

Granted, the competition level was awful, but in the first two games of the year, Tre Roberson put together some intriguing stats; he completed two-thirds of his passes and showed some explosive running ability. But in the second quarter against UMass, he suffered a gruesome leg injury and missed the rest of the season. In his absence, Cameron Coffman started the final 10 games of the season, and Nate Sudfeld got quite a few snaps as well. Sudfeld produced the better stats of the two, but Cameron maintained his (loose) grip on the starting job through 2012.

And now, Indiana has a bit of a quandary. All three are back, and none of the three really delivered any separation this spring. To no one's surprise, Roberson was a bit rusty, but since he beat out Coffman and Sudfeld a year ago, he could eventually do so again. There are worse things in the world than having two solid backup quarterbacks, but the hope here has to be that somebody seizes control of the job in August.

Combined, Indiana's three-headed quarterback still had a hell of a year: Treron Sudmanson threw for 3,734 yards with 24 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and a 61 percent completion rate. Considering the uncertainty and shuffling, that's not bad. Still, one guy separating himself from the others would be a very positive development. Sudfeld and Roberson seem to have higher ceilings (and more remaining years of eligibility).

Whoever wins the job from week to week will have quite a few familiar faces around him. Most of Indiana's skill position players produced at pretty average (or below-average) levels, but in running back Stephen Houston and receiver Cody Latimer, there is a couple of keepers. Houston was explosive in a way that the other runners were not, and while Latimer disappeared at times, he had a few breakout games -- four catches for 115 yards and two scores versus Ball State, four for 97 versus Northwestern, seven for 113 and three scores versus Iowa. For the season, he managed a rare, elite combination of a 79-percent catch rate and 15.7 yards per catch. His upside seems higher than the more frequently-targeted players in the receiving corps (Shane Wynn, Kofi Hughes).

And speaking of upside, if freshman Taj Williams wanted to pretty quickly prove his four-star rating, there is certainly playing time available.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Stephen Houston	RB	6'0, 225	Sr.	*** (5.5)	161	749	4.7	6.1	12	-3.7
D'Angelo Roberts	RB	5'10, 200	Jr.	*** (5.6)	83	300	3.6	3.2	3	-11.1
Tevin Coleman	RB	6'1, 208	So.	*** (5.7)	50	212	4.2	2.2	1	-6.0
Isaiah Roundtree	WR	5'11, 195	Jr.	NR	33	159	4.8	2.7	1	-0.5
Cameron Coffman	QB	6'2, 203	Jr.	*** (5.5)	24	64	2.7	2.5	1	-5.9
Tre Roberson	QB	6'0, 200	So.	*** (5.6)	11	124	11.3	20.0	3	+8.3
Nate Sudfeld	QB	6'5, 234	So.	*** (5.6)	11	23	2.1	0.9	0	-3.1
Daryl Chestnut	RB	5'10, 190	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Shane Wynn

5'7, 167

Jr.

*** (5.7)

648

70.5%

6.8

18.7%

67.4%

6.9

86.1

Kofi Hughes

6'2, 215

Sr.

** (5.4)

639

53.1%

7.9

15.9%

54.3%

7.8

85.0

Cody Latimer

6'3, 215

Jr.

*** (5.7)

805

78.5%

12.4

12.8%

60.0%

12.4

107.0

Ted Bolser

6'6, 254

Sr.

*** (5.6)

445

65.1%

7.1

12.4%

60.3%

7.1

59.2

Stephen Houston

6'0, 225

Sr.

*** (5.5)

381

75.5%

7.8

9.6%

55.1%

7.9

50.7

Duwyce Wilson

6'3, 203

Sr.

*** (5.7)

230

51.1%

5.1

8.8%

55.6%

5.3

30.6

Nick Stoner

6'1, 173

Jr.

*** (5.5)

118

48.1%

4.4

5.3%

63.0%

4.3

15.7

D'Angelo Roberts

5'10, 200

Jr.

*** (5.6)

152

57.7%

5.8

5.1%

65.4%

6.1

20.2

Jamonne Chester

132

73.9%

5.7

4.5%

69.6%

5.5

17.5

Isaiah Roundtree

5'11, 195

Jr.

42.9%

4.9

2.8%

71.4%

4.3

9.0

Tevin Coleman

6'1, 208

So.

*** (5.7)

90.9%

6.5

2.2%

54.5%

5.9

9.4

Ricky Jones

5'10, 190

RSFr.

** (5.4)

50.0%

1.0

0.4%

0.0%

0.4

0.3

Anthony Corsaro

6'1, 250

So.

Kevin Davis

5'11, 188

RSFr.

*** (5.7)

Taj Williams

6'4, 175

Fr.

**** (5.8)

Chase Dutra

6'1, 190

Fr.

*** (5.7)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.9	2.80	3.04	32.4%	68.1%	17.3%	162.4	3.1%	3.4%
Rank	100	88	78	118	60	34	22	35	16

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Will Matte	C				45 career starts
Peyton Eckert	RT	6'6, 295	Jr.	** (5.4)	18 career starts
Bernard Taylor	LG	6'2, 303	Jr.	*** (5.5)	16 career starts
Collin Rahrig	LG	6'2, 281	Jr.	NR	13 career starts
Jason Spriggs	LT	6'7, 280	So.	*** (5.5)	12 career starts
Dan Feeney	RG	6'4, 305	So.	*** (5.6)	12 career starts
Cody Evers	RG	6'4, 305	Jr.	** (5.3)	1 career start
Charlie Chapman	LT
Pete Bachman	RT	6'5, 288	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Ralston Evans	LT	6'4, 295	So.	*** (5.6)
David Kaminski	LG	6'4, 295	So.	** (5.2)
Wes Rogers	C	6'4, 300	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Dimitric Camiel	RT	6'7, 310	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Jacob Bailey	RG	6'5, 300	RSFr.	** (5.4)

6. The line was so young that it's still young

Indiana returns six players with starting experience and five with at least one year's worth of starting experience. That's impressive, but what's even more impressive is that none of the six players are seniors. Last year's rotation featured four-year starting center Will Matte and a ton of freshmen and sophomores.

The quick-passing nature of Indiana's attack resulted in solid sack rates, but while the line was solid at keeping defenders out of the backfield against the run, it failed to produce too many good opportunities for the running backs. (And yes, the backs themselves might have had a role to play in that.) Regardless, there is good seasoning here, and the numbers should improve at least a little bit ... and then a little bit more when, in theory, everybody returns yet again.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	106	116	103	121
RUSHING	119	103	86	109
PASSING	61	121	114	122
Standard Downs		106	83	118
Passing Downs		120	120	119
Redzone		103	96	107

Q1 Rk	107	1st Down Rk	115
Q2 Rk	84	2nd Down Rk	111
Q3 Rk	123	3rd Down Rk	107
Q4 Rk	101

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	95.0	3.09	4.02	40.8%	62.5%	18.9%	115.1	6.4%	6.5%
Rank	80	89	121	84	30	71	38	18	60

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Adam Replogle	DT				12	56.0	7.7%	13	5	0	0	2	1
Larry Black, Jr.	DT				12	28.5	3.9%	12	4	0	2	0	1
Ryan Phillis	DE	6'3, 260	Jr.	** (5.4)	12	25.0	3.5%	3.5	3	0	0	0	0
Zack Shaw	DE	6'3, 253	So.	**** (5.8)	12	23.5	3.2%	5	2	0	0	0	0
Bobby Richardson	DE	6'3, 275	Jr.	** (5.4)	12	21.0	2.9%	5	2.5	0	1	1	0
Nicholas Sliger	DT				11	14.0	1.9%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
John Laihinen	DE	6'4, 253	Jr.	NR	10	13.5	1.9%	3.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Nick Mangieri	DE	6'5, 261	So.	*** (5.7)	10	11.0	1.5%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Javon Cornley	DE				8	4.0	0.6%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Adarius Rayner	DT	6'2, 300	So.	** (5.2)	7	3.0	0.4%	2	1	0	3	0	0
Alex Todd	DT	6'3, 300	So.	** (5.4)	8	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Replogle	DE	6'2, 243	Jr.	** (5.4)	10	1.0	0.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Ralphael Green	DT	6'5, 312	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Jordan Heiderman	DT	6'3, 283	Jr.	** (5.4)
Christopher Cormier	DT	6'2, 315	Jr.	** (5.2)
David Kenney	DE	6'2, 250	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Darius Latham	DT	6'5, 291	Fr.	**** (5.8)

7. Indiana could rush the passer

Indiana's defense was good at almost nothing in 2012. The Hoosiers ranked worse than 100th in every S&P+ category above and was almost the worst defense in the country at preventing big pass plays. This defense had issues too significant for a few new four-star freshmen to magically rectify. But they were strong in short-yardage situations, and they could rush the passer.

Tackles Adam Replogle and Larry Black, Jr., were as active a pair of interior linemen as you're going to find, combining for 25 tackles for loss and one-third of Indiana's 27 sacks. Plus, Replogle had an astounding 56.0 tackles, ridiculously high for a defensive lineman.

8. Help wanted

The problem for Indiana, of course, is that Replogle and Black are both gone. The ends all return, including four-star sophomore Zack Shaw, and a couple of four-star freshmen indeed show up to fill out the rotation. But returning defensive tackles combined for just 5.0 tackles last year, which means the pressure will be on youngsters like redshirt freshman Ralphael Green, freshman Darius Latham, and a pair of two-star junior college transfers -- Jordan Heiderman and Christopher Cormier -- to produce immediately.

Losing your two best players is typically going to be problematic no matter who you are or how good you are, but the loss of Replogle and Black is particularly worrisome, simply because they were just about the only play-makers Indiana had. Linebackers David Cooper and Griffen Dahlstrom combined for a relatively impressive 16 tackles for loss and four sacks, and safety Greg Heban was an occasional wrecking ball (seven tackles for loss, 11 passes defensed), but if Indiana wasn't making a stop in the backfield, the Hoosiers were getting burned in a major way. There just isn't enough talent here yet. The 2013 recruiting class will help immensely, but it will only help so much in 2013.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
David Cooper	MLB	6'1, 235	Jr.	*** (5.5)	12	68.0	9.4%	9	3	0	3	1	0
Forisse Hardin	SLB	6'1, 220	Jr.	*** (5.6)	12	39.5	5.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Griffen Dahlstrom	WLB	6'3, 235	Sr.	** (5.1)	12	38.5	5.3%	7	1	0	1	1	0
Jacarri Alexander	LB	6'1, 240	Sr.	*** (5.5)	6	25.5	3.5%	3	0	0	0	1	0
Chase Hoobler	SLB	6'2, 240	Jr.	*** (5.5)	6	20.0	2.8%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Kyle Kennedy	WLB	6'3, 235	So.	*** (5.5)	6	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jake Michalek	MLB	6'2, 235	Jr.	NR	11	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Steven Funderburk	WLB	6'3, 231	Jr.	** (5.4)
T.J. Simmons	MLB	6'0, 235	Fr.	*** (5.5)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Greg Heban	S	6'1, 203	Sr.	NR	12	79.5	11.0%	7	1	3	8	0	1
Mark Murphy	S	6'2, 210	Jr.	*** (5.5)	12	59.5	8.2%	3	1	0	2	0	1
Brian Williams	CB	6'0, 192	Jr.	** (5.4)	12	50.0	6.9%	0.5	0.5	1	8	0	1
Antonio Marshall	CB	5'11, 195	Sr.	*** (5.7)	11	32.0	4.4%	2.5	0	2	1	0	0
Kenny Mullen	CB	5'10, 184	Jr.	** (5.4)	11	30.5	4.2%	3	0	0	4	0	0
Tim Bennett	S	5'9, 190	Jr.	NR	11	14.5	2.0%	1	1	0	3	0	0
Drew Hardin	S				12	14.5	2.0%	1	0	0	1	0	1
Alexander Webb	S				10	12.0	1.7%	1	0	1	0	0	0
Michael Hunter (2011)	CB	6'1, 188	So.	*** (5.5)	12	11.0	1.5%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Ryan Thompson	S	5'10, 198	Sr.	*** (5.5)	7	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lawrence Barnett	CB				8	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dawson Fletcher	S	6'0, 203	So.	** (5.3)	2	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Antonio Allen	DB	5'10, 205	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Rashard Fant	DB	5'10, 165	Fr.	**** (5.8)

9. The promise of early playing time

One thing Kevin Wilson had to offer, of course, was a direct path to playing time. For four-star Indianapolis native Antonio Allen and Georgia "athlete" Rashard Fant (who might play offense, but I'm guessing ends up a defensive back), that certainly had to be part of the draw. The two could both end up in the immediate rotation if they play reasonably well in August, as could the freshmen on the line.

And lord knows Wilson can continue using the "early PT" line as part of his recruiting pitch for quite a while, even on offense.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Erich Toth	6'3, 196	So.	48	39.5	2	18	7	52.1%
Mitchell Voss			22	37.2	0	9	8	77.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Mitch Ewald	5'10, 174	Sr.	68	61.5	31	45.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Mitch Ewald	5'10, 174	Sr.	42-43	10-12	83.3%	5-8	62.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Tevin Coleman	KR	6'1, 208	So.	24	23.6	1
Shane Wynn	KR	5'7, 167	Jr.	8	22.5	0
Kofi Hughes	KR	6'2, 215	Sr.	4	16.0	0
Nick Stoner	PR	6'1, 173	Jr.	13	5.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	46
Net Punting	65
Net Kickoffs	37
Touchback Pct	30
Field Goal Pct	45
Kick Returns Avg	56
Punt Returns Avg	96

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	Indiana State	NR
7-Sep	Navy	87
14-Sep	Bowling Green	66
21-Sep	Missouri	33
5-Oct	Penn State	24
12-Oct	at Michigan State	18
19-Oct	at Michigan	28
2-Nov	Minnesota	72
9-Nov	Illinois	94
16-Nov	at Wisconsin	16
23-Nov	at Ohio State	10
30-Nov	Purdue	80

Five-Year F/+ Rk	98
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	52
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / +0.9
TO Luck/Game	-1.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	19 (10, 9)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+1.2

10. A schedule meant for a bowl bid

Of Indiana's obnoxious eight (!) home games, six are against teams projected 66th or worse in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2013, and the other two are against teams that combined for just a 13-11 record last year. If the Hoosiers can just manage minimal improvement on each side of the ball, they could pretty easily end up with six wins and a bowl bid, even if they get blown out in each of their four road games.

Of course, one of those six lowly-ranked home opponents (Navy) beat the Hoosiers last year, and Bowling Green could potentially be the best team in the MAC not named Northern Illinois -- as good as, or better than, the Ball State team that beat the Hoosiers last year. There is still quite a bit of work to be done here, especially considering Indiana had the fourth-worst BCS defense in the country in 2012 (ahead of just Colorado, Duke, and Kentucky).

I do expect Indiana to pull off marginal improvement on both offense and defense, however, and I do figure the Hoosiers reach at least five wins, probably six. Until Wilson can bring in a couple more recruiting classes with the upside of the 2013 class, Indiana's ceiling is going to still be lower than most of the teams in the conference, but the Hoosiers should be good on offense for years to come, enough for Indiana to matter in the college football universe.

Wilson may have won only five games in his first two years, but he's brought some hope to Bloomington. Overall quality aside, that's a hell of an accomplishment.