2013 Northwestern football's 10 things to know: Breakthroughs and peaks

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. The breakthrough in present tense

Graphs are useful. Twenty years from now, a progression chart like the one below will pretty clearly tell us, "See right there? That was the peak for Pat Fitzgerald at Northwestern. And that year right there? That was the breakthrough." But a breakthrough is only a breakthrough until the next one, and a peak is only a peak when you stop rising.

That said, in my 2033 Northwestern preview for SBN, I could very well be describing either 2012 or 2013 as the breakthrough season for Pat Fitzgerald's Wildcats. For more than a half-decade, Northwestern oscillated between below-average (84th in the F/+ rankings in 2007, 73rd in 2010) and good (42nd in 2008), rose and fell according to good breaks and experience level, and established itself as decent in every possible way. But the Wildcats were downright good in 2012, cracking the top-30 overall (29th), playing pretty well on both sides of the ball (and dominating in special teams), and winning 10 games in a season for the first time since 1995 and the second time in more than 100 years.

With most of its noteworthy names back in 2013, Northwestern could make a run at 10 wins again this fall. And with recruits taking notice -- there are only four former four- or five-star recruits listed below, but Fitzgerald already has commitments from three in the 2014 recruiting class -- this surge could plant the seeds for sustained quality in years to come. The offense began to come together in 2011, and while the defense was still lacking in the depth department, it was above average in 2012 for the first time in three years.

Of course, with so many Big Ten teams clumped together, somebody's going to be losing a lot of close games and ruing what could have been in 2013. And commitments in July don't automatically result in signees in February. There is still a lot of work to be done here. For all we know, 2012 was the breakthrough and the peak. But we talk about ceilings and floors a lot in these previews, and after last year, we can quite possibly say that both are higher for Northwestern than they have been for a while.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 29
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	at Syracuse	42-41	W	24.9 - 29.0	L
8-Sep	Vanderbilt	23-13	W	30.0 - 20.8	W
15-Sep	Boston College	22-13	W	28.8 - 28.3	W
22-Sep	South Dakota	38-7	W	28.9 - 22.4	W
29-Sep	Indiana	44-29	W	37.5 - 32.8	W
6-Oct	at Penn State	28-39	L	24.3 - 24.8	L
13-Oct	at Minnesota	21-13	W	27.3 - 24.8	W
20-Oct	Nebraska	28-29	L	14.6 - 29.0	L
27-Oct	Iowa	28-17	W	39.9 - 31.1	W
10-Nov	at Michigan	31-38	L	34.5 - 34.0	W
17-Nov	at Michigan State	23-20	W	34.0 - 34.0	W
24-Nov	Illinois	50-14	W	32.9 - 38.9	L
1-Jan	vs. Mississippi State	34-20	W	21.4 - 20.7	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	31.7	42	22.5	29
Adj. Points Per Game	29.2	57	28.5	65

2. Hey kids, do you like fun?

Northwestern began the season with a win over Syracuse that featured three first-half lead changes, a 22-point third-quarter lead for Northwestern, and two more lead changes in the final three minutes. The Wildcats combined for 73 points with Indiana, 67 with Penn State, and 69 with Michigan, and three games in a late-season, four-game stretch were decided by a combined 11 points.

Blown leads made a 10-win season almost seem disappointing -- NU was up 28-17 on Penn State heading into the fourth quarter, 28-16 on Nebraska with six minutes left, and 24-14 on Michigan late in the third quarter and lost all three games -- but one has to admit that, for better and for worse, Northwestern was fun to watch in 2012. And things got more wild and entertaining as the season progressed.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 8 games): Northwestern 27.0, Opponent 26.5 (plus-0.5)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Northwestern 35.3, Opponent 34.5 (plus-0.8)

The fourth-quarter issues were real and verified by the advanced stats below. In terms of Off. and Def. S&P+, Northwestern ranked 74th and 37th, respectively, in the first quarter, 49th and 57th in the second, fourth and 95th in the third, and 91st and 92nd in the fourth. There is quite obviously still some work to be done here in terms of overall depth, but the late leads showed what the Wildcats might be capable of at some point in the near future. At least, that's what Northwestern fans think, anyway.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	63	45	33	54
RUSHING	19	35	41	28
PASSING	110	55	24	85
Standard Downs		41	25	47
Passing Downs		60	53	66
Redzone		8	10	4

Q1 Rk	74	1st Down Rk	60
Q2 Rk	49	2nd Down Rk	36
Q3 Rk	4	3rd Down Rk	38
Q4 Rk	91

3. Finish your drives

This week at Football Study Hall, I posted some data related to the art of finishing drives. Sometimes in a given season, teams are good at creating opportunities but don't necessarily take full advantage of those opportunities, and sometimes a team is Northwestern.

The Wildcats advanced inside the opponent's 40 on 52 percent of their drives, an almost perfectly average 61st in the country. But they averaged 4.41 points per trip, 45th.

In terms of what we traditionally think of as the red zone (the 20), Northwestern crossed the 20 on 38 percent of their drives (68th) but averaged 5.66 points per trip (35th). In Red Zone S&P+ above, the Wildcats ranked eighth in the country. The Venric Mark-Kain Coulter run combination proved particularly effective near the end zone; each scored 12 touchdowns, and Northwestern was quite competent in taking advantage of the opportunities it created for itself.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Trevor Siemian	6'3, 210	Jr.	*** (5.6)	128	218	1,312	58.7%	6	3	5	2.2%	5.7
Kain Colter	6'0, 190	Sr.	*** (5.7)	101	149	872	67.8%	8	4	12	7.5%	5.0
Zack Oliver	6'4, 235	So.	*** (5.6)	2	2	14	100.0%	0	0	0	0.0%	7.0
Matt Alviti	6'0, 176	Fr.	**** (5.8)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Venric Mark	RB	5'8, 175	Sr.	*** (5.6)	226	1,371	6.1	6.5	12	+21.5
Kain Colter	QB	6'0, 190	Sr.	*** (5.7)	158	958	6.1	5.3	12	+18.4
Mike Trumpy	RB	6'1, 210	Sr.	*** (5.6)	76	349	4.6	4.2	3	-1.0
Tyris Jones	RB				40	143	3.6	2.3	2	-4.2
Treyvon Green	RB	5'10, 215	Jr.	** (5.3)	22	73	3.3	7.6	1	-2.3
Trevor Siemian	QB	6'3, 210	Jr.	*** (5.6)	16	78	4.9	2.5	1	+0.7
Tim Riley	FB				8	39	4.9	2.2	0	+0.3
Tim Hanrahan	RB	6'0, 195	Jr.	NR	8	31	3.9	1.8	0	-1.0
Malin Jones	RB	6'0, 205	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Keith Watkins	RB	5'11, 175	Fr.	*** (5.7)

4. One flashy backfield

Behind a solid line that featured three multi-year starters, the Northwestern running game was a strength, featuring decent efficiency with quality explosiveness. Running back (and punt returner extraordinaire) Mark and triple-threat QB Colter (he was at different points in 2011 the team's best quarterback, running back, and receiver) proved quite capable of going a long way in the open field.

Combined with a perfectly efficient passing game, the Wildcats were quite strong on standard downs, capable of staying on schedule and ahead of the chains most of the time. Both Mark and Coulter are seniors in 2013, as is veteran Mike Trumpy. A couple of relatively highly touted (i.e. high three-star) backs await their turn, but this year belongs to the seniors.

The biggest issue for the run game comes up front. The backfield may be loaded, but the line has to replace three players who combined for 97 career starts. The left side of the line (Brian Mulrow, Patrick Ward) was both experienced and effective, but now the Wildcats start over a bit behind center Brandon Vitabile. Northwestern was good in most run-blocking scenarios and fantastic in short-yardage. Struggles in this regard could produce a lot more passing downs than this offense is equipped to handle.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Rashad Lawrence	WR-Z	6'2, 185	Sr.	*** (5.7)	55	34	321	61.8%	5.8	15.7%	70.9%	5.6	42.3
Christian Jones	WR-H	6'3, 225	Jr.	*** (5.7)	50	35	412	70.0%	8.2	14.3%	62.0%	8.3	54.3
Tony Jones	WR-X	6'0, 185	Jr.	*** (5.5)	50	29	335	58.0%	6.7	14.3%	62.0%	6.7	44.2
Demetrius Fields	WR-Y				45	33	305	73.3%	6.8	12.9%	68.9%	6.6	40.2
Dan Vitale	FB	6'2, 220	So.	** (5.4)	36	28	288	77.8%	8.0	10.3%	72.2%	7.5	38.0
Kain Colter	WR	6'0, 190	Sr.	*** (5.7)	29	16	169	55.2%	5.8	8.3%	44.8%	5.6	22.3
Venric Mark	RB	5'8, 175	Sr.	*** (5.6)	29	20	104	69.0%	3.6	8.3%	69.0%	3.4	13.7
Kyle Prater	WR-X	6'5, 215	Jr.	***** (6.1)	17	10	54	58.8%	3.2	4.9%	52.9%	3.3	7.1
Cameron Dickerson	WR-Z	6'3, 200	So.	*** (5.5)	15	9	54	60.0%	3.6	4.3%	60.0%	3.6	7.1
Mike Trumpy	RB	6'1, 210	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	8	56	66.7%	4.7	3.4%	75.0%	4.8	7.4
Tyris Jones	RB				4	1	15	25.0%	3.8	1.1%	0.0%	1.5	2.0
Tim Riley	FB				3	3	26	100.0%	8.7	0.9%	100.0%	5.2	3.4
Pierre Youngblood-Ary	WR-Y	6'3, 185	So.	*** (5.5)	1	1	1	100.0%	1.0	0.3%	100.0%	0.6	0.1
Mike McHugh	WR-X	6'3, 185	RSFr.	*** (5.5)

5. One decidedly unflashy receiving corps

Yeah, we'll say "unflashy" is a word now. There was efficiency in the Northwestern passing game; Colter completed 68 percent of his passes, and Northwestern ranked a healthy 24th in Passing Success Rate+. But there was absolutely no explosiveness to be found, no hope of turning a seven-yard pass into a 50-yard touchdown. Northwestern receivers combined to average just 9.9 yards per catch last year, one of the worst averages you'll find. Only one of the top eight wideouts managed better than even a paltry 6.8 yards per target.

Completions are important, and Northwestern returns quite a few targets who produced catch rates of 65 percent or better, but without big plays, offenses quite often bog down. That Northwestern still scored quite a few points was encouraging, especially considering the awkward one-quarterback-for-standard-downs (Colter), one-for-obvious-passing-situations (Trevor Siemian) arrangement.

If there is big-play hope here, it probably comes from Christian Jones; in the final four games of the regular season, he caught 10 passes for 177 yards. Yes, he also caught five for just 39 yards in the bowl game, and yes, he averaged just 9.8 yards per catch in the first seven games of the season, but we're looking for hope here, not proof.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.4	3.04	3.38	40.2%	76.8%	18.7%	134.0	4.5%	3.4%
Rank	34	51	49	50	17	57	32	59	16

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Brian Mulrow	LG				40 career starts
Patrick Ward	LT				39 career starts
Brandon Vitabile	C	6'3, 300	Jr.	*** (5.7)	26 career starts
Neal Deiters	RG				18 career starts
Jack Konopka	LT	6'5, 285	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13 career starts
Chuck Porcelli	RT				2 career starts
Paul Jorgensen	RT	6'6, 295	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Hayden Baker	LG	6'2, 280	Jr.	NR
Matt Frazier	RG	6'4, 290	So.	*** (5.6)
Shane Mertz	LT	6'8, 295	So.	*** (5.6)
Geoff Mogus	LG	6'5, 280	So.	*** (5.5)
Adam Depietro	RG	6'5, 270	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Eric Olson	RT	6'6, 285	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Ian Park	C	6'4, 295	RSFr.	*** (5.5)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	48	63	66	57
RUSHING	22	63	65	61
PASSING	86	53	76	47
Standard Downs		42	49	43
Passing Downs		95	102	88
Redzone		93	77	101

Q1 Rk	37	1st Down Rk	36
Q2 Rk	57	2nd Down Rk	116
Q3 Rk	95	3rd Down Rk	69
Q4 Rk	92

6. Opponents knew they could pass

Well, opponents not named Mississippi State, anyway.

After two years in the desert -- 101st in Def. F/+ in 2010, 90th in 2011 -- Northwestern's defense discovered competence once again in 2012. That's a good thing. The Wildcats improved to 46th in Def. F/+, one of the biggest leaps in the country.

So as we talk about this unit's weaknesses, use that as a backdrop; it could have been a lot worse, and it was rather recently. But it could still be a lot better. Northwestern was average against both the run and pass and struggled mightily to close drives. The Wildcats coulld leverage you into passing downs pretty well, but they were terribly inefficient on such downs, and if you got into the red zone, you were probably scoring.

And then there were the aforementioned depth issues. The starting ends combined for 65.5 tackles; the backups logged 20.5. The starting tackles combined for 35.5 tackles; the backups combined for 15.5. And while the starting linebackers combined for 246.0 tackles (!), the backups combined for 22.0 (!!).

Passing-downs struggles are particularly demoralizing to thin defenses. You think you're just about off the field, and then you have to start all over again. But while the standard downs defense was solid, NU just couldn't do much to get opponents off the field. Opponents knew they could pass on the Wildcats when they needed to, and they did just that, throwing 74 percent of the time on passing downs (almost eight percent more than the national average) with few repercussions.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	99.9	2.65	3.89	40.0%	73.2%	20.8%	103.4	5.5%	5.3%
Rank	61	24	119	72	94	42	57	35	84

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tyler Scott	DE	6'4, 265	Sr.	** (5.4)	13	34.5	4.7%	12.5	9	0	5	3	0
Quentin Williams	DE				13	31.0	4.2%	8.5	4.5	1	3	2	1
Brian Arnfelt	DT				13	19.5	2.7%	6	3	0	2	2	1
Sean McEvilly	DT	6'5, 275	Jr.	*** (5.5)	13	16.0	2.2%	1.5	1	0	1	0	1
Dean Lowry	DE	6'6, 230	So.	*** (5.7)	13	11.5	1.6%	3	1	0	1	0	1
Chance Carter	DT	6'3, 270	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	10.0	1.4%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Deonte Gibson	DE	6'3, 240	So.	*** (5.6)	12	8.0	1.1%	2.5	2	0	0	0	0
Will Hampton	DT	6'3, 285	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13	5.5	0.8%	2	0	0	1	0	0
Roderick Goodlow	DE				3	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Max Chapman	DE	6'3, 230	So.	*** (5.6)	11	1.0	0.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Ifeadi Odenigbo	DE	6'3, 220	RSFr.	**** (5.9)
Greg Kuhar	DT	6'3, 275	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Tyler Lancaster	DT	6'3, 250	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Damien Proby	MIKE	6'0, 235	Sr.	*** (5.7)	13	93.0	12.7%	4.5	0.5	0	3	0	0
David Nwabuisi	WILL				13	79.5	10.9%	8.5	1	3	5	0	2
Chi Chi Ariguzo	WILL	6'3, 220	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	73.5	10.0%	10.5	3	2	5	0	4
Drew Smith	SAM	6'1, 205	So.	*** (5.5)	13	14.0	1.9%	3	2	0	1	0	0
Collin Ellis	SAM	6'2, 225	Jr.	*** (5.5)	11	7.0	1.0%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Timmy Vernon	MIKE	6'3, 225	Sr.	NR	13	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jaylen Prater	WILL	6'0, 215	RSFr.	** (5.4)

7. Find a blitz

Ends Tyler Scott and Quentin Williams combined for 13.5 sacks, many of which came on standard downs. These are solid totals, but the pass rush disappeared on second- and third-and-long. Linebackers combined for just 7.5 sacks, and while the best blitzer (Chi Chi Ariguzo) is back and new potential starter Drew Smith (still a second-stringer as of mid-April) made a promising two sacks in minimal playing time, it's safe to say that improvement is still needed here.

Really, the biggest improvement in terms of passing downs pass rush might come from up front. Two stars of the 2012 recruiting class enter the rotation after redshirt seasons, and one of them is Ifeadi Odenigbo, who at 220 pounds probably isn't big enough to be an every-down presence but could certainly contribute as a pass rush specialist.

If the Wildcats can figure out how to harass quarterbacks a bit more effectively, the line's strengths -- slicing into the backfield against the run -- could be more pronounced. Active tackle Brian Arnfelt is gone, but Will Hampton and Sean McEvilly each have potential, and the linebacking corps does still return Ariguzo and Damien Proby.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ibraheim Campbell	S	5'11, 205	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	74.0	10.1%	0.5	0	2	12	2	0
Jared Carpenter	S				13	53.0	7.2%	1	0	1	6	1	1
Quinn Evans	CB				12	33.5	4.6%	0.5	0	0	3	0	0
Daniel Jones	CB	5'11, 170	Jr.	** (5.4)	11	31.0	4.2%	0	0	0	4	0	0
Nick VanHoose	CB	6'0, 185	So.	** (5.4)	10	29.5	4.0%	0.5	0	3	7	0	3
Demetrius Dugar	CB				9	20.0	2.7%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Traveon Henry	S	6'1, 200	So.	*** (5.7)	10	19.0	2.6%	0	0	0	1	0	0
C.J. Bryant	CB	5'11, 175	Jr.	*** (5.5)	10	10.0	1.4%	0	0	0	0	1	1
Davion Fleming	S	5'10, 200	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	10.0	1.4%	0.5	0	0	0	1	0
Jarrell Williams	CB	5'11, 190	So.	*** (5.6)	9	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Jimmy Hall	S	6'2, 205	Jr.	*** (5.6)	9	4.5	0.6%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Hunter Bates	S				5	4.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Eshun	CB	5'8, 170	Jr.	NR	5	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dwight White	CB	5'10, 178	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Godwin Igwebuike	DB	6'0, 190	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Kyle Quiero	DB	6'3, 190	Fr.	*** (5.7)

8. The names are back

There are certainly question marks here. We don't know if the pass rush will improve, and in losing safety Jared Carpenter and corners Quinn Evans and Demetrius Dugar, Northwestern finds its defensive backfield depleted a decent amount.

But the names return. (I'm not talking about the quality of the actual names themselves, of course, but it's difficult to beat Chi Chi Ariguzo, Ibraheim Campbell, Nick VanHoose, and Ifeadi Odenigbo in that regard.) Ariguzo was one of the Big Ten's better play-makers, Ibraheim Campbell was perhaps the player most directly responsible for Northwestern's solid big-play prevention (the problem in the passing game was preventing the steady eight-yard gains, not 80-yard gains), and Tyler Scott really is a solid pass rusher from the end position. The star power is solid here; we just don't know if the depth is any better, and that's a problem.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Brandon Williams	6'2, 185	Sr.	64	39.9	2	18	21	60.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Steve Flaherty			83	59.7	16	19.3%
Jeff Budzien	5'11, 165	Sr.	1	45	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jeff Budzien	5'11, 165	Sr.	50-50	13-13	100.0%	6-7	85.7%
Steve Flaherty			0-0	1-1	100.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Venric Mark	KR	5'8, 175	Sr.	21	19.8	0
Tony Jones	KR	6'0, 185	Jr.	7	23.9	0
Tim Hanrahan	KR	6'0, 195	Jr.	2	11.0	0
Venric Mark	PR	5'8, 175	Sr.	15	18.7	2

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	4
Net Punting	46
Net Kickoffs	101
Touchback Pct	106
Field Goal Pct	2
Kick Returns Avg	75
Punt Returns Avg	4

9. One fine special teams unit

Kickoffs really weren't Northwestern's thing; the Wildcats weren't very good in kick coverage, and their primary kick returner (Venric Mark) didn't average even 20 yards per kick return. But this unit still ranked fourth in Special Teams F/+ thanks to solid hang-time from punter Brandon Williams, tremendous place-kicking from Jeff Budzien (perfect from inside 40 yards, almost perfect from outside), and ridiculous punt returning from Mark.

All three of those players return. As with the rest of this Northwestern team, the strengths of this unit could be as strong or stronger, and the weaknesses might be just as weak.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	at California	73
7-Sep	Syracuse	54
14-Sep	Western Michigan	96
21-Sep	Maine	NR
5-Oct	Ohio State	10
12-Oct	at Wisconsin	16
19-Oct	Minnesota	72
26-Oct	at Iowa	44
2-Nov	at Nebraska	21
16-Nov	Michigan	28
23-Nov	Michigan State	18
30-Nov	at Illinois	94

Five-Year F/+ Rk	51
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	54
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+14 / +15.5
TO Luck/Game	-0.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (7, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-4.3

10. A top-25 team could go 10-2

Northwestern's 2013 team should look quite a bit like its 2012 team, one that, despite its weaknesses, finished in the F/+ top 30 and was a handful of plays away from 12-0. The Football Outsiders Almanac 2013 projections are conservative here -- that's what happens when your five-year averages and recent recruiting are both average and not great -- but it's certainly easy to see the Wildcats producing a level similar to that of last season.

What I don't know for sure is how much better they could be. And that's obviously because of the "strengths are stronger, weaknesses might be weaker" aspect. Northwestern couldn't close out drives on defense, and there's no indication that this will simply improve just because. The Wildcats had no big-play threats in the passing game, and there's no reason to think that's changed. Pat Fitzgerald did an incredible job of making sure his squad achieved near its capabilities, but I'm not sure the capabilities are much stronger in 2013.

But I can say this: If Northwestern can improve to just top-20 or top-25 level, there are a lot more wins to be found this fall. Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State all visit Evanston, and while trips to Wisconsin and Nebraska await (and it should be noted that the season opener against Cal's new Air Raid in Berkeley could be quite difficult for a team with a minimal pass rush and thin secondary), this schedule has certainly taken shape rather favorably. A top-20 team could go 10-2; but a top-40 team could go 6-6. Which one is Northwestern?

Make no mistake, though: whether top-20 or top-40, Northwestern should be damn fun to watch again.

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