2013 Michigan State football's 10 things to know: Stats vs. eyeballs

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. I'm supposed to love this team

Michigan State is the kind of team a stat nerd dreams of calling underrated.

A ranking that exceeded the record last year? Check. The 7-6 Spartans came in at No. 15 in the year-end F/+ rankings, ahead of 9-4 Oregon State (No. 18), 10-4 Nebraska (No. 19), 11-2 Boise State (No. 21), 11-2 Clemson (No. 22), and 11-2 Louisville (No. 28). The Spartans looked every bit as out-of-place as Notre Dame (8-5 and No. 13) and Texas A&M (7-6 and No. 15) did in 2011, and 2012 worked out quite well for both of those teams, to say the least.

A ton of close losses? Check. State did win four games by one possession, but they also lost five by a combined 13 points.

A ton of experience? Check. Fifteen starters return. The quarterback's back, along with four of the top five receivers, seven offensive linemen with starting experience, six of the top eight defensive linemen, five of the top six linebackers, four of the top five defensive backs, and, for what it's worth, a pretty good punter.

Sustained success? Check. Mark Dantonio has done some pretty impressive things in his six years in East Lansing, inheriting a program that had crumbled to 4-8 and 72nd in 2006 and slowly but surely building a winner. The Spartans ranked between 39th and 46th each year and went 22-17 from 2007-09, then jumped to 25th and 11-2 in 2010, then jumped again to 11th and 11-3 in 2011. That they held mostly steady in the rankings despite having to rebuild a good portion of their offense last year typically says very good things about the team in the near future.

It's all there. From a numbers perspective, Michigan State has everything you need to become a sleeper top-10 team (or better) in 2013. But because I actually watched Michigan State play last year, I am struggling to move forward with the Spartan hype.

Make no mistake: I love this defense. The Spartans ranked third in Def. F/+ last year -- theirs was the best non-SEC defense in the country -- and the linebacking corps and secondary could be incredible enough to offset the loss of a stud end. And I'm not even slightly worried about the loss of running back Le'Veon Bell. When your most impressive talent is the ability to take a beating, you can probably be replaced. The running back stable is potentially deep, and the Spartans should have a top-40 offensive line as well. There are a lot of pieces in place.

But to field a top-10 team, you have to be able to at least pretend to throw the ball, right? And my eyeballs can't shake the memory of last season's wretched attack. Without dramatic improvement in that single area, I don't see how this team could crack the top 10.

2. There's been a leap

Top 20, however? You bet. With decent recruiting, good development, and outstanding defensive coaching, Dantonio has built something impressive at State. Even despite all the close losses last year, the Spartans have still won 29 games in three seasons. Their best three-year stretch under John L. Smith: 18-18. Nick Saban: 23-13. George Perles: 22-12-2. Not since Duffy Daugherty was on his incredible 1960s run have the Spartans been this consistently good.

Dantonio has proven he can field a top-30 offense (No. 24 in Off. F/+ in 2010, No. 27 in 2009) and a top-five defense. You can win a lot of games with that mix, and Michigan State should continue to do just that. I'm just not sure the offense is up for the challenge in 2013.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 15
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
31-Aug	Boise State	17-13	W	32.1 - 8.6	W
8-Sep	at Central Michigan	41-7	W	30.6 - 12.1	W
15-Sep	Notre Dame	3-20	L	12.2 - 14.0	L
22-Sep	Eastern Michigan	23-7	W	22.8 - 9.5	W
29-Sep	Ohio State	16-17	L	22.7 - 24.9	L
6-Oct	at Indiana	31-27	W	21.5 - 20.1	W
13-Oct	Iowa	16-19	L	18.0 - 16.7	W
20-Oct	at Michigan	10-12	L	24.8 - 17.8	W
27-Oct	at Wisconsin	16-13	W	24.5 - 8.4	W
3-Nov	Nebraska	24-28	L	25.9 - 25.2	W
17-Nov	Northwestern	20-23	L	28.0 - 20.4	W
24-Nov	at Minnesota	26-10	W	29.6 - (-0.3)	W
29-Dec	vs. TCU	17-16	W	14.8 - 17.7	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	20.0	110	16.3	9
Adj. Points Per Game	23.7	101	15.0	2

3. The offense rallied, at least

It seemed like Michigan State had found the blueprint early on. The Spartans became the first BCS conference team in seven tries to beat Boise State in the opener, then crushed Central Michigan, with a pretty easy formula: defense plus timely offense. Against Boise State, Le'Veon Bell rushed an unsustainable 44 times for 210 yards (he caught six passes as well); against CMU, quarterback Andrew Maxwell completed 20 of 31 passes for 275 yards. State was an above-average offensive team and crippling defensive team. That works pretty well. But it wouldn't last.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 2 games): Michigan State 31.4, Opponent 10.4 (plus-21.0)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): Michigan State 19.4, Opponent 17.0 (plus-2.4)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): Michigan State 26.6, Opponent 14.3 (plus-12.3)

Maxwell completed 61 percent of his passes in the first two games, but he completed just 52 percent in his next five games. Bell erupted against Eastern Michigan (36 carries for 253 yards) but averaged just 3.8 yards per carry against Notre Dame, Ohio State, Indiana, and Iowa. State just had nothing working, but while the passing game never came around (in his last four games, Maxwell incredibly completed just 43 percent of his passes), Bell found his legs, averaging 34 carries per game and gaining 732 yards in the final four games.

State's offense improved down the stretch, but it was mostly due to a player who wisely elected to go pro. Running backs' legs only have so many carries in them, and State used a lot of Bell's last year. His meager explosiveness numbers don't portend a great pro career, but he still made a smart decision to start that journey before another 380-carry season in East Lansing.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	97	78	80	79
RUSHING	77	69	54	78
PASSING	86	85	102	78
Standard Downs		95	92	97
Passing Downs		58	58	57
Redzone		83	69	87

Q1 Rk	111	1st Down Rk	114
Q2 Rk	51	2nd Down Rk	42
Q3 Rk	90	3rd Down Rk	57
Q4 Rk	70

4. State should have … run more?

I had to check the data to make sure it was right. Despite Bell averaging 29 carries per game for the season, despite him carrying the ball more than any back in the country (only two other backs averaged even 25 carries: Nevada's Stefphon Jefferson and Wisconsin's Montee Ball), Michigan State's offense actually skewed slightly toward the pass. State ran a perfect 60 percent of the time on standard downs (exactly the national average) but actually passed 71 percent of the time on passing downs (four percent higher than average). Since they couldn't actually pass, on standard or passing downs, this wasn't the best use of resources.

How can those numbers be right? How could Bell grind and grind for a team that was almost pass-first? Easy: because there was no backup. Running backs Nick Hill, Larry Caper and Jeremy Langford combined for 48 carries all season, just four more than Bell had against Boise State alone. That's ridiculous.

It's also not a great show of confidence for this season's running backs. Hill and Langford return after averaging just 2.0 yards per carry last year, which means that youngsters -- be it redshirt freshman Nick Tompkins or any of a trio of true freshmen with solid recruiting rankings -- could see plenty of opportunity. In fact, addicted to the big guys, State has apparently named converted linebacker Riley Bullough its starter heading into the preseason.

No matter how the carries are divvied, it would be very good news to find State running more frequently, as crazy as that sounds. Because while the primary pieces of the passing game return -- quarterback Andrew Maxwell, receivers Keith Mumphery, Bennie Fowler, Tony Lippett, and Aaron Burbridge -- they just weren't connected last season. Things change, but ... how much can they change in this regard?

Maxwell just had a terrible 2012. Despite throwing 70 percent of his charted passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, he managed an awful 53 percent completion rate. Adjusting his completion percentage to account for the types of passes he was throwing, his was the worst of any quarterback we charted last year. Yes, the receivers absolutely had a role to play in that (I didn't even know it was possible to have 66 dropped passes in 13 games), but again, he's got the same receivers this year. The emergence of somebody new to the rotation, like junior DeAnthony Arnett (upon whom quite a few expectations were heaped last year with disappointing results), would be incredibly welcome.

And hey, if backup quarterback Connor Cook wanted to have a ridiculously good August and overtake Maxwell, that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world either.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp Rate

TD

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Andrew Maxwell

6'3, 209

Sr.

**** (5.9)

234

446

2,606

52.5%

13

9

21

4.5%

5.2

Connor Cook

6'4, 215

So.

*** (5.7)

9

17

94

52.9%

1

1

1

5.6%

4.6

Tyler O'Connor

6'3, 212

RSFr.

*** (5.7)

Damion Terry

6'4, 210

Fr.

**** (5.8)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Le'Veon Bell	RB				382	1,793	4.7	4.0	12	-14.1
Nick Hill	RB	5'8, 193	Jr.	*** (5.7)	21	48	2.3	4.1	1	-4.2
Larry Caper	RB				18	108	6.0	5.6	0	+1.3
Andrew Maxwell	QB	6'3, 209	Sr.	**** (5.9)	16	55	3.4	2.2	0	-1.9
Jeremy Langford	RB	6'0, 206	Jr.	*** (5.6)	9	23	2.6	0.9	0	-2.6
Keith Mumphery	WR	6'0, 208	Jr.	*** (5.7)	6	38	6.3	2.8	0	+1.2
Riley Bullough	RB	6'2, 232	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Nick Tompkins	RB	5'9, 185	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Gerald Holmes	RB	6'0, 205	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Delton Williams	RB	6'2, 225	Fr.	*** (5.7)
R.J. Shelton	RB	5'11, 185	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Keith Mumphery	WR-Z	6'0, 208	Jr.	*** (5.7)	81	42	515	51.9%	6.4	18.5%	55.6%	6.4	57.5
Dion Sims	TE				70	36	475	51.4%	6.8	16.0%	52.9%	7.0	53.0
Bennie Fowler	WR-Z	6'1, 212	Sr.	*** (5.6)	68	41	524	60.3%	7.7	15.5%	48.5%	7.5	58.5
Tony Lippett	WR-X	6'3, 185	Jr.	*** (5.5)	63	36	392	57.1%	6.2	14.4%	49.2%	6.0	43.7
Aaron Burbridge	WR-F	6'1, 195	So.	**** (5.9)	62	29	364	46.8%	5.9	14.2%	50.0%	5.7	40.6
Le'Veon Bell	RB				50	32	167	64.0%	3.3	11.4%	54.0%	3.3	18.6
Larry Caper	RB				12	6	52	50.0%	4.3	2.7%	0.0%	1.9	5.8
Lawrence Thomas	FB/DT	6'3, 300	So.	**** (5.9)	8	7	78	87.5%	9.8	1.8%	75.0%	9.3	8.7
Andre Sims, Jr.	WR-Z	5'9, 185	So.	*** (5.7)	6	3	23	50.0%	3.8	1.4%	33.3%	2.9	2.6
Paul Lang	TE	6'5, 260	So.	** (5.4)	6	3	8	50.0%	1.3	1.4%	66.7%	1.3	0.9
DeAnthony Arnett	WR-Z	5'11, 175	Jr.	**** (5.9)	5	3	69	60.0%	13.8	1.1%	80.0%	12.6	7.7
Macgarrett Kings, Jr.	WR-F	5'10, 185	So.	*** (5.7)	5	4	25	80.0%	5.0	1.1%	60.0%	5.0	2.8
A.J. Troup	WR-X	6'2, 205	So.	NR
Monty Madaris	WR-X	6'1, 199	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Josiah Price	TE	6'4, 243	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Evan Jones	TE	6'5, 248	RSFr.	*** (5.6)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	106.6	2.96	3.49	34.9%	70.8%	13.6%	128.3	3.9%	4.9%
Rank	39	64	34	105	49	4	38	48	39

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Chris McDonald	RG				39 career starts
Dan France	RG	6'6, 315	Sr.	*** (5.7)	24 career starts
Blake Treadwell	LG	6'3, 300	Sr.	**** (5.8)	16 career starts
Travis Jackson	C	6'3, 280	Jr.	*** (5.7)	15 career starts
Skyler Burkland	RT	6'7, 315	Jr.	NR	14 career starts
Fou Fonoti	RT	6'4, 298	Sr.	*** (5.7)	13 career starts
Jack Allen	C	6'1, 295	So.	*** (5.6)	12 career starts
Ethan Ruhland	C				3 career starts
Donavon Clark	LG	6'3, 299	So.	*** (5.7)	2 career starts
Nick Klatt	RG
Connor Kruse	RG	6'4, 315	Jr.	** (5.4)
Michael Dennis	RT	6'7, 307	Jr.	** (5.4)
Benny McGowan	RG	6'3, 312	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Zach Higgins	LG	6'4, 318	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Kodi Kieler	C	6'5, 316	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Jack Conklin	LT	6'6, 310	RSFr.	NR
Dennis Finley	OL	6'6, 285	Fr.	*** (5.7)

5. An underrated line

State couldn't throw and catch very well, and Bell was more durable than actually effective for much of the season, but one couldn't really blame the line for the offense's struggles. The Spartans were top-40 in Adj. Line Yards and were particularly adept at keeping defenders out of the backfield. Bell didn't always get far up the field, but he was rarely caught behind the line. (And yes, his yards-after-contact ability probably helped in that regard.)

There was quite a bit of shuffling here, and thanks to the return of Fou Fonoti, State returns six players who have started at least 12 games in their career (despite losing three-year starting guard Chris McDonald). Bell's running style did State's line some favors, but the line should now be able to return the favor for this year's crops of runners.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	4	2	1	4
RUSHING	8	2	2	5
PASSING	9	1	1	4
Standard Downs		2	1	2
Passing Downs		16	7	23
Redzone		1	1	4

Q1 Rk	7	1st Down Rk	2
Q2 Rk	4	2nd Down Rk	2
Q3 Rk	1	3rd Down Rk	11
Q4 Rk	9

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	132.8	2.31	2.16	29.7%	59.1%	30.2%	82.9	3.8%	5.0%
Rank	2	4	9	3	14	1	91	90	90

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
William Gholston	DE				13	41.0	6.9%	13	4.5	0	10	1	0
Marcus Rush	DE	6'2, 250	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	28.5	4.8%	7.5	2	0	5	1	0
Anthony Rashad White	NT				13	17.0	2.8%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Micajah Reynolds	NT	6'5, 308	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13	13.0	2.2%	2	1	0	1	1	0
James Kittredge	NT	6'4, 275	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	12.0	2.0%	4.5	0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Hoover	DT	6'7, 290	Sr.	*** (5.7)	8	7.5	1.3%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Denzel Drone	DE	6'2, 262	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13	7.0	1.2%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Shilique Calhoun	DE	6'4, 248	So.	*** (5.5)	13	5.0	0.8%	2.5	1	0	2	0	0
Lawrence Thomas	DT	6'3, 300	So.	**** (5.9)	13	3.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Damon Knox	NT	6'4, 273	So.	*** (5.5)	2	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Clemons	DT	6'3, 300	So.	**** (5.8)
Joel Heath	DE	6'6, 277	So.	*** (5.6)
Jamal Lyles	DE	6'3, 242	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Demetrius Cooper	DE	6'5, 220	Fr.	*** (5.7)

6. Depth vs. impact

Man oh man, was this a good defense last year. Michigan State couldn't rush the passer very well at all but made up for it by constantly slicing into the backfield against the run and by blanketing receivers with what might have been the country's best back seven. (It was top-five at worst.)

The biggest name on last year's defense wasn't necessarily the best; William Gholston was a five-star signee, the marquee recruit of the Dantonio era, and he certainly thrived last fall, combining 13 tackles for loss with 10 batted passes. But he was only a decent pass rusher. Granted, it's possible the State pass rush gets even worse without him, but the depth of this defense should be able to account for the loss of a single star.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Max Bullough	MIKE	6'3, 242	Sr.	**** (5.8)	13	81.0	13.5%	12.5	2.5	1	4	1	0
Denicos Allen	SAM	5'11, 215	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13	60.0	10.0%	10	3	1	3	1	1
Chris Norman	STAR				13	39.0	6.5%	4	1	0	3	0	1
Taiwan Jones	STAR	6'3, 240	Jr.	*** (5.7)	13	28.5	4.8%	5.5	1	0	3	0	0
Jairus Jones	STAR	6'1, 208	Sr.	*** (5.6)	7	14.5	2.4%	0	0	0	0	1	1
Kyler Elsworth	SAM	6'1, 222	Sr.	NR	13	8.0	1.3%	3.5	2.5	0	2	0	1
TyQuan Hammock	LB				10	3.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darien Harris	SAM	6'0, 215	So.	*** (5.7)	13	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ed Davis	SAM	6'3, 220	So.	*** (5.7)	13	2.5	0.4%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Pat Rhomberg	MIKE	6'0, 225	So.	NR
Matthew Eleweke	SAM	6'3, 205	RSFr.	NR
Jon Reschke	LB	6'2, 229	Fr.	**** (5.9)
Shane Jones	LB	6'1, 220	Fr.	**** (5.8)

7. Good luck running the ball

That said, there are plenty of stars still returning. The Spartans are loaded at tackle despite the loss of Anthony Rashad White; Micajah Reynolds and James Kittredge both return, and the combination of those two with Tyler Hoover and former four-star signees Lawrence Thomas and Brandon Clemons should keep State in the Adj. Line Yards top-10.

The tackles were so good at occupying blockers last season. There's no reason to think that will change in 2013, and that's great news for an incredible set of linebackers. Max Bullough and Denicos Allen combined for 22.5 tackles for loss, and only 5.5 of them were sacks. They can defend passing lanes and pursue ball-carriers as well as anyone in the country, and while Chris Norman is gone, Taiwan Jones was actually a better play-maker last season. Throw in Kyler Elsworth and a pair of four-star freshmen, and you've got an absolutely loaded corps of 'backers.

State was No. 2 in Rushing S&P+ last year (only Alabama was better), and I don't see why it would drop this fall.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Isaiah Lewis	SS	5'10, 210	Sr.	**** (5.8)	13	60.5	10.1%	1.5	0	2	6	0	0
Darqueze Dennard	CB	5'11, 188	Sr.	** (5.4)	13	43.0	7.2%	3.5	0	3	7	0	0
Kurtis Drummond	FS	6'1, 196	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	41.0	6.9%	4.5	0	2	4	1	1
Johnny Adams	CB				12	29.0	4.8%	3	1	3	7	0	0
R.J. Williamson	SS	6'0, 205	So.	*** (5.7)	11	23.0	3.8%	1	0	2	4	1	1
Mitchell White	CB				13	5.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Trae Waynes	CB	6'1, 178	So.	** (5.4)	9	3.5	0.6%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Mylan Hicks	CB	5'11, 191	Jr.	*** (5.7)	8	3.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Arjen Colquhoun	CB	6'1, 195	So.	*** (5.7)
Chris Laneaux	SS	5'11, 190	So.	NR
Demetrious Cox	FS	6'1, 199	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Ezra Robinson	CB	6'0, 178	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Jermaine Edmondson	CB	6'0, 175	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Mark Meyers	FS	6'0, 181	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Gabe Augustin	CB	5'8, 182	RSFr.	NR
Jalyn Powell	DB	6'1, 185	Fr.	*** (5.7)

8. Terrible pass rush, unbelievable secondary

Michigan State ranked 91st in Adj. Sack Rate ... and first in Passing S&P+. What does that tell you about the Spartans' secondary? Losing all-conference cornerback Johnny Adams, now a Houston Texan (and, according to YouTube, a hell of a blues and gospel singer in the 1960s), hurts, but when you bring back another fantastic corner (Darqueze Dennard) and three stellar safeties, you can probably deal with that loss.

Considering the linebacking corps should be every bit as well-equipped to help in the passing game as it was last year, and considering the pass rush already wasn't that great, I again don't see why the Spartans should expect to slip much. This should once again be a top-five defense all around, which means the offense only needs to improve a little bit to make a large difference. (I'm just not sure it can.)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Mike Sadler	6'0, 185	Jr.	79	43.3	6	21	31	65.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Kevin Muma	6'0, 199	Sr.	60	63.2	29	48.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Dan Conroy			25-25	13-17	76.5%	10-15	66.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Nick Hill	KR	5'8, 193	Jr.	31	21.6	0
Le'Veon Bell	KR			4	11.5	0
Andre Sims, Jr.	PR	5'9, 185	So.	11	8.4	0
Nick Hill	PR	5'8, 193	Jr.	8	8.9	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	50
Net Punting	33
Net Kickoffs	26
Touchback Pct	22
Field Goal Pct	64
Kick Returns Avg	93
Punt Returns Avg	58

9. Just like punters should choose terrible teams…

...a kicker should choose Michigan State, at least if the last two years are any indication. You'll get plenty of opportunities to create a highlight reel.

Michigan State has attempted 56 field goals over the last 27 games, and honestly, the prolific (and now graduated) Dan Conroy left a few points on the board last year. He missed a 42-yarder in a one-point loss to Ohio State, a 38-yarder in a two-point loss to Michigan, and a 37-yarder in a three-point loss to Northwestern. Still, that he was able to make 72 percent of his field goals despite almost half of them coming from at least 40 yards away is pretty impressive. Now we have to see if his replacement can keep up in that regard.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	Western Michigan	96
7-Sep	South Florida	67
14-Sep	Youngstown State	NR
21-Sep	at Notre Dame	13
5-Oct	at Iowa	44
12-Oct	Indiana	62
19-Oct	Purdue	80
26-Oct	at Illinois	94
2-Nov	Michigan	28
16-Nov	at Nebraska	21
23-Nov	at Northwestern	40
30-Nov	Minnesota	72

Five-Year F/+ Rk	22
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	39
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+2 / +3.0
TO Luck/Game	-0.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (8, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+1.1

10. 6-1 at home won't cut it

Michigan State doesn't have to have a great offense to win a ton of games in 2013. The Spartans avoid Ohio State (and, on the flip side, the Buckeyes avoid Michigan State, too) and get Michigan at home; two of the five road games are incredibly winnable, and none are a lost cause. With this defense and at least a decent special teams unit, the Spartans should once again finish in the F/+ top 20 and win at least nine games.

But to win more than nine, two things have to happen: the offense has to stabilize, and State can't slip up at home. The Spartans will be moderate to heavy favorites in six of seven home games, and they simply have to beat the rival Wolverines to achieve what the numbers keep trying to convince me they can achieve.

On paper, State looks so much like Notre Dame did a year ago, from the higher-than-expected ratings the year before, to the insanely good linebacking, to the significant question marks at quarterback. Notre Dame figured out answers and rolled to a 12-0 regular season.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Spartans could do the same. But I just don't think they will. Top 20? Definitely? Anything better? Probably not.

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