2013 Wisconsin football's 10 things to know: A healthy transition

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. The golden age

It's amazing what a couple of nice hires can do. In 1963, Wisconsin began the season seventh in the AP poll after losing the Rose Bowl and finishing second in the country. The Badgers reached as high as second that season but collapsed, losing four of five and finishing 5-4. From 1964-92, nearly three full decades, Wisconsin finished with a winning record just six times and never won more than seven games in a season. (It won seven games for four straight years between 1981-84 but did it just one other time in that span.)

When Barry Alvarez took over in 1990, he wasn't facing a Bill Snyder-esque building job, but it was close enough; the Badgers had gone just 9-36 in the previous four years, and they would go just 11-22 in his first three seasons.

In the last 20 seasons, Wisconsin has finished with a winning record 18 times. The Badgers have been to six Rose Bowls (including each of the last three), have finished in the AP top 10 six times, and have won at least 10 games in a season eight times. Bret Bielema, Alvarez's replacement, stumbled briefly (from 12-1 in 2006 to 7-6 in 2008) but surged to 32-8 from 2009-11 and rebounded from a slow start in 2012 to win his second straight Big Ten title game.

This is the golden age of Wisconsin football. Aside from a solid run between 1951-62 and some dominance at the turn of the 20th century, there is nothing that compares to what the Badgers are doing right now. And they're doing it because of a combination of solid commitment and the right hires.

It's hard to make two of them in a row, but with Alvarez and Bielema, Wisconsin did. Now, with Bielema off to Arkansas, it aims for a third.

2. Gary Andersen's Utah State salvage job in one word: Awesome

In 2012, not only did Utah State finish 16th in the polls and win 11 games (more than former head coach Brent Guy won in four seasons from 2005-08), but the program looked like it belonged, like it had always belonged. With a steady quarterback, an explosive running game, and the best mid-major defense in the country -- at ninth overall in Def. F/+, the Aggies ranked ahead of BYU, Rutgers, TCU, and Notre Dame -- the Aggies had the look and feel of a great team and came within six points of finishing undefeated.

-- 2013 Utah State football's 10 things to know

Utah State was so good last year that you forgot that the Aggies had been pretty awful until rather recently.

As I've written an infinite number of times through three years of season previews, coaching changes are a complete and total crapshoot. You are most likely hiring a guy who succeeded in his last job, be it as a head coach, star assistant, et cetera. (And if he didn't succeed in his last job, he probably succeeded in his second-to-last job.) But despite previous success, a high percentage of hires don't work out. Culture is different from one school to another. Recruiting territory is different. Maybe he just doesn't get the breaks. Regardless, even the hires that seem just about perfect can fail in this zero-sum game. And just because Gary Andersen absolutely aced the Utah State job doesn't mean he'll do the same at Wisconsin.

But wow, did he ace the Utah State job. With a star defensive coordinator in Dave Aranda (who has followed him to Madison) and a heck of a defensive pedigree of his own (he was Utah's defensive line coach during the Utes' undefeated 2004 run and the defensive coordinator for their undefeated 2008 run), Andersen needed just two years to improve USU's defense from 102nd in Def. F/+ to ninth. His offense was run-friendly and pretty explosive -- which should play perfectly well in Madison -- and did the defense as many field position favors as it could. After six straight years of ranking 99th or worse in the overall F/+ rankings, USU improved to 66th in 2011 and 17th in 2012.

He earned the promotion. Now he just has to keep earning it.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-6 | Adj. Record: 9-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 16
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	Northern Iowa	26-21	W	26.7 - 34.3	L
8-Sep	at Oregon State	7-10	L	15.4 - 16.5	L
15-Sep	Utah State	16-14	W	23.3 - 14.4	W
22-Sep	UTEP	37-26	W	36.1 - 23.6	W
29-Sep	at Nebraska	27-30	L	22.3 - 25.1	L
6-Oct	Illinois	31-14	W	34.6 - 26.6	W
13-Oct	at Purdue	38-14	W	45.2 - 15.6	W
20-Oct	Minnesota	38-13	W	39.1 - 24.0	W
27-Oct	Michigan State	13-16	L	19.4 - 24.6	L
10-Nov	at Indiana	62-14	W	43.8 - 16.5	W
17-Nov	Ohio State	14-21	L	22.5 - 14.4	W
24-Nov	at Penn State	21-24	L	29.4 - 20.7	W
1-Dec	vs. Nebraska	70-31	W	72.3 - 23.9	W
1-Jan	vs. Stanford	14-20	L	32.2 - 34.4	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	29.6	59	19.1	17
Adj. Points Per Game	33.0	35	22.5	19

3. Greatest 8-6 team ever

Okay, fine, there haven't been many 8-6 teams in college football's history, but I feel confident in saying that Wisconsin was probably the best of the bunch. After replacing both assistants and quarterback Russell Wilson, the Badgers struggled early on. But when the calendar flipped to October, Wisconsin flipped a switch.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): WIsconsin 24.8, Opponent 22.8 (plus-2.0)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 8 games): Wisconsin 38.3, Opponent 20.8 (plus-17.5)

As you'll see below, Wisconsin was dinged by about 2.4 points per game of bad turnovers luck (fumble recoveries, batted passes that didn't become interceptions); in a season that sees you lose four games by three points or less, that can make an incredible difference, no? Wisconsin was close to something much greater than 8-6, but in the end, the Badgers still won another Big Ten title (thanks to Ohio State's postseason ineligibility) by thoroughly emasculating Nebraska in the title game, and the Badgers still damn near beat a great Stanford team in the Rose Bowl despite losing Bielema.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	65	35	27	34
RUSHING	13	39	40	34
PASSING	115	27	22	26
Standard Downs		37	34	37
Passing Downs		28	43	23
Redzone		5	8	3

Q1 Rk	10	1st Down Rk	19
Q2 Rk	25	2nd Down Rk	10
Q3 Rk	47	3rd Down Rk	32
Q4 Rk	9

4. Just add water

You like to run, Coach Andersen? And you hired Andy Ludwig, coordinator of a 2012 San Diego State offense that ran 67 percent of the time on standard downs and 48 percent on passing downs last year, to run your offense? You'll fit in just fine here.

We have to go back quite a long way to find a Wisconsin offense that either didn't run much or wasn't very good at it. Last year's offense took a while to get off the ground following the departure of an incredible quarterback, offensive coordinator Paul Chryst, three long-time starting linemen (two of whom were first-team all-conference), and a No. 1 receiver. And the full-season averages above were only good, not spectacular. But despite uncertainty at the quarterback position -- Danny O'Brien wasn't very good, and Joel Stave got hurt -- Wisconsin went from slightly below average to outstanding in October and beyond.

When Curt Phillips, a former star recruit who has been plagued by knee injuries, took over for Stave in the starting lineup, Wisconsin went from run-heavy to run-obsessed. Phillips wasn't asked to do much, averaging just 18 pass attempts per game (including sacks) in his five starts, but he brought some mobility to the table, and Wisconsin's running game did not suffer with the extra load. The Badgers rushed for 605 yards versus Indiana, 640 versus Nebraska, and even a solid 301 (4.9 per carry) versus an excellent Stanford defense.

Stave's upside in the passing game is quite a bit higher than Phillips', but word out of the spring was that Phillips was a bit better in handling the blitzes that Aranda and the defense threw at the QBs. If Ludwig is looking for a Ryan Katz/Adam Dingwell impersonator, i.e. a guy who hands the ball off really nicely and is okay with not playing hero ball, then Phillips could be just fine, especially with his mobility. Lower upside is fine if accompanied with higher downside. I guess.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Joel Stave	6'5, 227	So.	** (5.4)	70	119	1,104	58.8%	6	3	10	7.8%	7.9
Danny O'Brien				52	86	523	60.5%	3	1	9	9.5%	4.6
Curt Phillips	6'3, 215	Sr.	**** (5.8)	46	81	540	56.8%	5	2	9	10.0%	5.3
Bart Houston	6'4, 219	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Tanner McEvoy	6'6, 215	So.	*** (5.5)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Montee Ball	RB				357	1,827	5.1	5.0	22	+11.4
James White	RB	5'10, 197	Sr.	*** (5.7)	125	806	6.4	9.9	12	+18.6
Melvin Gordon	RB	6'1, 203	So.	**** (5.8)	61	631	10.3	9.8	3	+26.7
Curt Phillips	QB	6'3, 215	Sr.	**** (5.8)	18	160	8.9	10.1	0	+6.4
Joel Stave	QB	6'5, 227	So.	** (5.4)	9	32	3.6	5.1	0	-0.8
Jared Abbrederis	WR	6'2, 188	Sr.	NR	8	83	10.4	9.3	0	+3.6
Danny O'Brien	QB				6	5	0.8	2.7	0	-2.1
Jeffrey Lewis	RB	6'2, 211	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Vonte Jackson	RB	6'0, 199	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Corey Clement	RB	5'11, 205	Fr.	**** (5.8)

5. Montee Ball scored 83 touchdowns (and threw for an 84th)

Montee Ball was incredible, one of the best college running backs of the last few decades. He was decisive, sure-footed, and more explosive than he probably gets credit for being. I have to keep reminding myself of that because it's easy to look at last year's backups and assume little to no drop-off.

If any duo is capable of replacing an all-timer like Ball, James White and Melvin Gordon would certainly seem up for the challenge. Bielema didn't really trust them in close games last year -- they combined for just seven carries versus Michigan State, nine versus Ohio State, and eight versus Penn State -- and that's at least a bit of a warning sign. But against lesser defenses, when things were clicking, he unleashed this duo with spectacular results. Against Purdue, they combined for 23 carries and 211 yards. Against Minnesota, 25 and 195. Against Indiana, 22 and 157. And, of course, against Nebraska in the conference title game, a positively absurd 24 for 325.

Ball was the grinder, and White and Gordon (the master of the jet sweep) were the gashers. They also caught 10 of 16 passes for 197 yards, and they evidently might share the backfield a bit, as well. This could be fun.

James White. Jeff Hanisch, US Presswire.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Jared Abbrederis	WR	6'2, 188	Sr.	NR	71	49	837	69.0%	11.8	26.0%	54.9%	11.8	149.3
Jacob Pedersen	TE	6'4, 241	Sr.	** (5.2)	49	27	355	55.1%	7.2	17.9%	49.0%	7.4	63.3
Jordan Fredrick	WR	6'3, 210	So.	*** (5.5)	27	17	196	63.0%	7.3	9.9%	48.1%	7.7	35.0
Kenzel Doe	WR	5'8, 171	Jr.	** (5.4)	26	16	121	61.5%	4.7	9.5%	46.2%	4.9	21.6
Derek Watt	FB	6'2, 230	So.	*** (5.6)	18	12	150	66.7%	8.3	6.6%	72.2%	8.6	26.8
Montee Ball	RB				17	10	72	58.8%	4.2	6.2%	52.9%	4.3	12.8
James White	RB	5'10, 197	Sr.	*** (5.7)	14	8	132	57.1%	9.4	5.1%	28.6%	7.1	23.5
Brian Wozniak	TE	6'4, 257	Sr.	*** (5.6)	14	9	94	64.3%	6.7	5.1%	78.6%	6.3	16.8
Chase Hammond	WR	6'5, 209	Jr.	*** (5.5)	14	5	50	35.7%	3.6	5.1%	64.3%	3.5	8.9
Jeff Duckworth	WR	6'0, 206	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	9	60	75.0%	5.0	4.4%	66.7%	5.1	10.7
Sam Arneson	TE	6'4, 255	Jr.	*** (5.7)	5	4	19	80.0%	3.8	1.8%	100.0%	2.3	3.4
Reggie Love	WR	6'3, 209	So.	*** (5.6)	3	1	19	33.3%	6.3	1.1%	0.0%	2.5	3.4
Melvin Gordon	RB	6'1, 203	So.	**** (5.8)	2	2	65	100.0%	32.5	0.7%	50.0%	27.4	11.6
Austin Traylor	TE	6'3, 243	So.	**** (5.8)
Rob Wheelwright	WR	6'3, 185	Fr.	*** (5.7)

6. Stay healthy, Jared

Jared Abbrederis missed a couple of games early in the year with injury and was still targeted almost 50 percent more than Wisconsin's No. 2 receiver last year. After averaging 12.6 yards per target as Russell Wilson's No. 2 receiver in 2011, he stepped up to No. 1, weathered issues at the quarterback position, and still averaged 11.8 in 2012. He is an incredible receiver, one who can do damage on short passes near the line of scrimmage, then torch you deep on play-action. He is also the only returning Wisconsin receiver who averaged better than even a mediocre 7.3 yards per target last year.

Junior Kenzel Doe is a good enough punt returner to make you think he could be come a strong weapon in space at some point, but Abbrederis is the only proven guy. Hope he doesn't get hurt again.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	106.8	3.13	2.94	40.5%	58.9%	20.3%	69.7	8.3%	9.5%
Rank	37	34	84	47	104	86	106	114	104

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Rick Wagner	LT				36 career starts; 2012 1st All-Big 10
Travis Frederick	C				31 career starts
Ryan Groy	LT	6'5, 317	Sr.	*** (5.6)	20 career starts
Rob Havenstein	RT	6'8, 338	Jr.	*** (5.6)	15 career starts
Kyle Costigan	RG	6'4, 304	Jr.	** (5.3)	9 career starts
Zac Matthias	RG	6'5, 323	Sr.	*** (5.6)	4 career starts
Robert Burge	RT				4 career starts
Dallas Lewallen	LG	6'6, 318	Jr.	*** (5.6)
Jacob Ninneman	C	6'1, 280	Jr.	** (5.2)
Riki Kodanko	RT	6'9, 332	Jr.	NR
Tyler Marz	LT	6'7, 318	So.	*** (5.5)
Ray Ball	LG	6'7, 327	So.	*** (5.5)
Dan Voltz	C	6'4, 310	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Walker Williams	OL	6'7, 318	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Trent Denlinger	RG	6'6, 285	RSFr.	NR
Jack Keeler	OL	6'7, 285	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	15	13	17	11
RUSHING	25	13	17	10
PASSING	18	16	25	13
Standard Downs		12	21	9
Passing Downs		19	19	20
Redzone		64	37	95

Q1 Rk	36	1st Down Rk	12
Q2 Rk	3	2nd Down Rk	26
Q3 Rk	15	3rd Down Rk	19
Q4 Rk	43

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109.6	2.66	3.32	39.0%	77.4%	19.5%	95.6	2.3%	9.1%
Rank	24	25	69	62	115	61	70	114	22

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
David Gilbert	DE				14	31.5	4.4%	9.5	4	0	1	3	0
Beau Allen	NT	6'3, 333	Sr.	*** (5.6)	14	27.5	3.8%	7.5	2.5	0	2	1	0
Ethan Hemer	DT	6'6, 296	Sr.	NR	14	19.0	2.6%	2.5	1	0	3	0	0
Pat Muldoon	DE	6'3, 258	Sr.	*** (5.7)	11	12.5	1.7%	5.5	2.5	0	2	0	0
Warren Herring	NT	6'3, 286	Jr.	*** (5.5)	14	10.0	1.4%	1	0.5	0	1	0	1
Bryce Gilbert	DT	6'1, 307	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	7.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Konrad Zagzebski	DE	6'3, 271	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Jake Keefer	DT	6'3, 254	So.	**** (5.8)	4	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
James Adeyanju	DE	6'2, 259	So.	*** (5.7)	3	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Harrison	DE	6'0, 231	Jr.	*** (5.5)	1	1.0	0.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Chikwe Obasih	DE	6'3, 231	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Alec James	DE	6'4, 220	Fr.	*** (5.7)

7. 3-4 compatibility grade: A

Wisconsin has won a lot of games in recent years, but the Badgers have done so despite what we might call poor timing. In 2011, Wisconsin ranked first in Off. F/+ but only 52nd in Def. F/+. In 2012, the defense came around (14th in Def. F/+), but the offense took a while to get rolling (28th). A team with Wisconsin's 2011 offense and special teams and 2012 defense would have ranked second overall in last year's F/+ rankings. And considering all the close losses, it's certainly not outlandish to suggest that team could have gone undefeated and made the BCS title game (and gotten whipped by Alabama). As it stands, Wisconsin made the Rose Bowl in both years, and maybe that's enough (instead of one huge peak and one lull).

That was a pretty meandering paragraph (sorry), but the main takeaway is this: the Badgers were damn good on defense last year, and they return all but two players from the front-seven two-deep. Granted, those two players (David Gilbert and Mike Taylor) were fantastic, but new coordinator Dave Aranda has a lot of toys to play with here. And honestly, the talent seems to fit his scheme.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Mike Taylor	OLB				14	96.0	13.4%	15	3	0	4	0	1
Chris Borland	ILB	5'11, 248	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	80.0	11.1%	10	4.5	0	6	3	3
Ethan Armstrong	ILB	6'2, 216	Sr.	** (5.4)	14	73.5	10.2%	2	0	1	4	0	0
Brendan Kelly	OLB	6'6, 250	Sr.	*** (5.6)	11	22.5	3.1%	6	5	0	2	0	1
Derek Landisch	ILB	5'11, 227	Jr.	*** (5.5)	14	21.5	3.0%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Tyler Dippel	OLB	6'4, 267	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13	15.0	2.1%	5.5	3	0	1	0	0
Conor O'Neill	ILB	6'0, 222	Sr.	*** (5.5)	14	12.5	1.7%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Marcus Trotter	ILB	6'0, 236	Jr.	*** (5.7)	4	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nick Hill	OLB	6'2, 222	Sr.	NR
Vince Biegel	OLB	6'3, 230	RSFr.	**** (5.9)
Garret Dooley	LB	6'2, 215	Fr.	*** (5.7)

8. I mean, really, this is just about perfect

Perhaps the most important piece lines up in the middle; the biggest issue in shifting from 4-3 personnel to 3-4 is that you rarely inherit the type of tackle who can easily eat up blockers and man the nose tackle position properly. Size is sometimes an issue in this regard.

But Aranda inherits man-mountain Beau Allen, a player who not only meets the size requirements (and then some) but also possesses some interesting play-making ability, especially against the run. If he is able to competently play his role at NT, then the planets around him align nicely. Chris Borland is a quality inside linebacker, and Brendan Kelly and Tyler Dippel could thrive in attacking OLB roles. Mike Taylor was a one-man run-stopper, but there's still a lot to like about this front seven.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dezmen Southward	SS	6'2, 214	Sr.	** (5.3)	14	56.5	7.9%	8	0	1	4	1	0
Marcus Cromartie	CB				14	50.0	7.0%	0	0	1	12	1	0
Devin Smith	CB				14	46.0	6.4%	1	1	4	13	1	0
Shelton Johnson	SS				11	43.0	6.0%	0.5	0	0	4	0	0
Darius Hillary	CB	5'11, 187	So.	*** (5.5)	14	19.5	2.7%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Michael Trotter	FS	6'0, 210	Jr.	*** (5.7)	13	19.0	2.6%	1	1	0	1	0	0
Michael Caputo	SS	6'1, 198	So.	*** (5.6)	13	9.0	1.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Penial Jean	CB	5'11, 188	Jr.	*** (5.7)	5	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Devin Gaulden	DB	5'10, 186	Jr.	*** (5.5)	4	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jerry Ponio	DB	6'1, 198	Sr.	NR	10	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Terrance Floyd	DB	5'10, 197	So.	*** (5.6)	7	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kyle Zuleger	SS	5'11, 188	Sr.	NR
Hugs Etienne	CB	5'11, 175	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
T.J. Reynard	DB	5'11, 180	Jr.	NR
Keelon Brookins	DB	5'11, 185	Fr.	**** (5.8)
Sojourn Shelton	CB	5'9, 162	Fr.	*** (5.7)

9. A black hole at cornerback

If either Marcus Cromartie or Devin Smith returned at cornerback this year, I'd almost be talking myself into Wisconsin challenging Michigan State for the best defense in the conference. (That would also be bit outlandish considering the new system, so I should thank the CBs for protecting me from myself.) But as it stands, Wisconsin appears wonderfully stocked at linebacker and on the line, and the Badgers return a seasoned safety in Dezmen Southward ... but cornerback could be quite an issue.

Cromartie and Smith combined to defense 30 passes for a defense that shored up so many of its 2011 weaknesses last year; the eight returning defensive backs, including Southward, combined for nine. For all we know Darius Hillary, Penial Jean, and perhaps a couple of newcomers (either JUCO transfers or freshmen) could provide the same level of on-ball defending, but that's probably too much to ask. The Wisconsin pass rush better be pretty fantastic -- and it may be -- because the corners are going to need a little help for a while.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Drew Meyer	6'2, 182	So.	80	41.5	5	31	36	83.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Kyle French	6'1, 199	Jr.	49	63.5	27	55.1%
Jack Russell	6'0, 172	So.	28	57.8	1	3.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Kyle French	6'1, 199	Jr.	38-40	8-10	80.0%	2-6	33.3%
Jack Russell	6'0, 172	So.	14-15	0-1	0.0%	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Kenzel Doe	PR	5'8, 171	Jr.	8	12.4	1
Melvin Gordon	KR	6'1, 203	So.	7	21.6	0
Kenzel Doe	KR	5'8, 171	Jr.	7	27.9	0
Jared Abbrederis	PR	6'2, 188	Sr.	17	6.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	72
Net Punting	47
Net Kickoffs	43
Touchback Pct	60
Field Goal Pct	113
Kick Returns Avg	53
Punt Returns Avg	71

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	Massachusetts	125
7-Sep	Tennessee Tech	NR
14-Sep	at Arizona State	36
21-Sep	Purdue	80
28-Sep	at Ohio State	10
12-Oct	Northwestern	40
19-Oct	at Illinois	94
2-Nov	at Iowa	44
9-Nov	BYU	34
16-Nov	Indiana	62
23-Nov	at Minnesota	72
30-Nov	Penn State	24

Five-Year F/+ Rk	13
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	57
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+3 / +9.8
TO Luck/Game	-2.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (7, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-3.6

10. A one-game season

The non-conference slate features a pair of wonderfully interesting games versus Arizona State and BYU, but non-conference only matters if you're a national title contender. Wisconsin is not. But the Badgers are probably more capable of threatening for the Big Ten title (and a fourth straight Rose Bowl) than we are giving them credit for; the offense is perhaps limited at quarterback but stocked with exactly the type of players (i.e. running backs, a play-action deep threat, and solid line) its new coordinator needs. And the defense almost looks like it was built for a 3-4 defense all along.

Wisconsin was better than its record last year and returns more than enough pieces to threaten for a fourth straight Rose Bowl. And instead of drawing, say, Michigan and Nebraska from the other division, the Badgers get Iowa (on the road) and Northwestern (at home). Everything is winnable ... except, perhaps, for the trip to Columbus on September 28.

As you'll read later this week, I'm not nearly as high on the Buckeyes as some, but the winner of the UW-OSU game will almost certainly win the Leaders Legends West Leaders Division this year. Are the Badgers good enough to win in Columbus?

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