2013 Arizona football's 10 things to know: Can RichRod sustain his gains?

Arizona made the transition to Rich Rodriguez's offense and Jeff Casteel's defense better than expected in 2012; after a shaky offseason, can the Wildcats navigate a pretty easy schedule and sustain last year's improvement in the win column? For more on the Wildcats, visit Arizona Desert Swarm.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Jul 9, 2013, 12:00pm EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Ahead of schedule

Rodriguez was, by most accounts, a lovely hire who has proven he can win big at a school outside of football's top tier (he also proved that he might struggle to win at a blue-blood school like Michigan, but that's another story entirely). Between injuries, depth issues, another rugged schedule, and some serious stylistic changes, the Wildcats probably aren't a threat to win as quickly as other conference mates with first-year coaches (Washington State, Arizona State and UCLA, to name three), but in a few years we should be able to pretty clearly determine whether Arizona's ceiling is where Mike Stoops thinks it is, or whether there is room for a bit more growth. [...]

Arizona could sneak out a 6-6 season (or, technically, even 7-5) if things play out perfectly, but it should not be expected.

Arizona's hire of Rodriguez, and Rodriguez's hire of Casteel, were both strong long-term moves. Combined with the stadium upgrades, Pac-12 Network money, and Rodriguez's offensive proficiency, the long-term prognosis for the Arizona program is strong, and it is quite possible that the ceiling under Rodriguez will be higher than that under Mike Stoops. But 2012 will probably be a redshirt year of sorts: learn, grow, and worry about production and wins in 2013.

Whoops. In Rich Rodriguez's first season as head coach in Tucson, he not only sneaked out a 7-5 season, he won an eighth game (the bowl win over Nevada) and, with three close losses, came close to even higher heights.

After some serious slippage in Mike Stoops' final season -- Arizona fell to 79th in the 2011 F/+ rankings after placing between 21st and 38th in each of the previous four seasons -- Rodriguez was able to immediately reestablish the Wildcats' previous level of play. They improved from 30th to 11th in Off. F/+ and from 105th to 68th in Def. F/+; they rose by 41 spots overall, the eighth-best improvement of 2012 and the third-best in the conference behind Oregon State (88th to 18th, first overall) and UCLA (85th to 35th, fifth overall). That's not a bad first year.

Things perhaps get a little bit tricky in 2013; while the defense returns nearly everybody of consequence, the offense must replace its quarterback (Matt Scott) and perhaps its stud receiver (Austin Hill, who tore his ACL in the spring). The overall depth should be quite a bit more impressive than what Rodriguez inherited a year ago, but the star power might have dropped a notch or two.

Still, even if Arizona does take a step backwards in 2013 -- a common occurrence following a surge -- Rodriguez found himself ahead of schedule with a great 2012. In a conference where seemingly every program is improving or holding steady, Arizona kept pace last year and could be well-positioned to do so in the future.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 \| Adj. Record: 10-3 \| Final F/+ Rk: 38
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	Toledo	24-17	W	32.7 - 15.0	W
8-Sep	Oklahoma State	59-38	W	33.1 - 27.1	W
15-Sep	S.C. State	56-0	W	33.8 - 10.9	W
22-Sep	at Oregon	0-49	L	19.7 - 22.6	L
29-Sep	Oregon State	35-38	L	43.8 - 36.4	W
6-Oct	at Stanford	48-54	L	48.0 - 49.4	L
20-Oct	Washington	52-17	W	46.4 - 26.1	W
27-Oct	USC	39-36	W	36.2 - 34.1	W
3-Nov	at UCLA	10-66	L	14.4 - 37.3	L
10-Nov	Colorado	56-31	W	48.0 - 43.0	W
17-Nov	at Utah	34-24	W	37.4 - 34.1	W
23-Nov	Arizona State	34-41	L	36.3 - 25.4	W
15-Dec	vs. Nevada	49-48	W	35.5 - 30.1	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	38.2	16	35.3	105
Adj. Points Per Game	35.8	15	30.1	84

2. Fun and a mid-season funk

There just wasn't a lot of fun in Tucson in 2011. The Wildcats were destroyed by a brutal early schedule (they faced Oklahoma State, Stanford, Oregon, and USC -- combined record: 45-7 -- in consecutive weeks, then fell apart) and humbled by a defense that gave them pretty consistent deficits.

In 2012, however, the fun returned. The Wildcats averaged 38 points per game, scoring at least 48 points seven times and playing in six games decided by one possession. They took down USC at home (a feat that seemed a lot more impressive at the time) and beat two bowl teams (Oklahoma State and Washington) by a combined 56 points at home. In fact, if not for a mid-season defensive lull, they could have threatened for the Pac-12 South title.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): Arizona 33.2, Opponent 17.7 (plus-14.5)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 6 games): Arizona 34.8, Opponent 34.3 (plus-0.5)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Arizona 39.3, Opponent 33.2 (plus-6.1)

Tight, high-scoring losses to Oregon State and Stanford prevented Arizona from getting involved in the South race, but this was still a hell of a turnaround, especially considering the style change that occurred (particularly on defense) when Rodriguez took the reins from Stoops.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	7	17	15	18
RUSHING	15	16	13	22
PASSING	23	18	16	21
Standard Downs		42	35	44
Passing Downs		4	2	4
Redzone		22	35	16

Q1 Rk	38	1st Down Rk	38
Q2 Rk	11	2nd Down Rk	9
Q3 Rk	5	3rd Down Rk	9
Q4 Rk	47

3. Arizona did not win the offseason

Sometimes your team disappears into the background in the offseason, briefly emerging for spring practice reports, playing in a pleasantly dull spring game, then going back underground. This is what you prefer; the more offseason entertainment, the worse off your team will probably be.

In this way, Arizona made a few too many headlines this offseason. First, Ka'Deem Carey, who erupted for huge numbers in 2012, was charged with domestic violence almost immediately after Arizona's season ended. Then, Austin Hill, who also erupted for huge numbers in 2012, tore his ACL in spring ball. Hill's return date is uncertain, but it is certainly conceivable that he will miss the 2013 season. Suddenly, instead of simply replacing star quarterback Matt Scott, who had served as a perfect stylistic bridge from Stoops to Rodriguez, the Wildcats were looking at replacing all three offensive stars.

The news has improved of late, however. Carey saw his charges dropped last month, and former Notre Dame star recruit Davonte Neal decided to move closer to home and transferred to UA. He has applied to become immediately eligible, and while my sense is that his appeal will not be granted, I'll be honest: I'm never right when it comes to guessing NCAA eligibility decisions. It's like predicting a coin flip.

So in the end, the news certainly could have been worse for UA. Still, Hill's return is somewhere between unknown and unlikely, and that's a blow.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Matt Scott

301

499

3,620

60.3%

2.7%

6.9

B.J. Denker

6'3, 173

Sr.

259

67.6%

11.9%

6.0

Nick Isham
(2011 Louisiana Tech)

6'0, 190

So.

*** (5.6)

155

257

1,457

60.3%

6.9%

4.8

Jesse Scroggins (USC)

6'3, 210

Jr.

**** (5.9)

Javelle Allen

6'2, 223

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

Anu Solomon

6'1, 202

Fr.

**** (5.9)

4. Replacing Scott

Rich Rodriguez crafted his football reputation with the run; when you think of RichRod offenses, you think of Woody Dantzler (Clemson), Pat White (West Virginia) and Denard Robinson (Michigan), three incredibly gifted quarterbacks whose running abilities were maximized in Rodriguez's schemes.

Whereas it took him a year to get his offensive pieces in place at Michigan (he inherited Ryan Mallet and Steven Threet, not exactly paragons of run-first quarterbacking), he hit the jackpot with Matt Scott, a reasonably efficient passer who could serve as a decent enough run threat to open things up for Carey. Scott wasn't wonderful either on the ground or through the air, but he was good enough at both to make the offense click. Unfortunately, he was a senior.

In Rodriguez's second year, he has a grab bag of quarterbacking options, none of whom combine the experience and athleticism Scott brought to the table. There's B.J. Denker, last year's backup who torched Colorado when Scott was injured but took a few too many sacks for comfort. There's USC transfer (and former blue-chipper) Jesse Scroggins, who brings a huge arm to the table but didn't exactly light the world afire this spring following an injury. There's Louisiana Tech transfer Nick Isham, an Air Raid veteran (he started briefly for new California coach Sonny Dykes in Ruston). There's beefy redshirt freshman Javelle Allen. There's even true freshman Anu Solomon, a star recruit from Las Vegas who will be given a chance to win the job this fall.

Rodriguez is probably going to field a capable offense -- it's what he does. And as he showed last year, his optimal offense is capable of both running and passing (Arizona actually trended toward the pass a bit last year), so he doesn't absolutely have to have a Denard in place to succeed. But of the multitude of quarterbacks on the roster, one will need to step up and claim the job if UA has any chance of replicating last year's numbers. One has not done so just yet.

Ka'Deem Carey. Christian Petersen, Getty.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Ka'Deem Carey	RB	5'10, 196	Jr.	**** (5.8)	303	1,929	6.4	7.1	23	+35.4
Matt Scott	QB				99	586	5.9	3.8	6	+8.2
Daniel Jenkins	RB	5'9, 197	Sr.	**** (5.8)	67	293	4.4	2.2	2	-3.9
Jared Baker	RB	5'8, 191	So.	*** (5.7)	20	85	4.3	2.6	1	-2.3
B.J. Denker	QB	6'3, 173	Sr.	NR	16	79	4.9	4.1	1	-1.3
Elliot Taylor	RB				8	42	5.3	1.5	0	-0.4
Richard Morrison	SLOT	5'11, 174	Sr.	*** (5.5)	5	13	2.6	2.4	0	-1.1
Pierre Cormier	RB	5'10, 180	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Zachary Green	RB	5'9, 210	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Austin Hill

SLOT

6'3, 210

Jr.

*** (5.7)

118

1364

68.6%

11.6

23.7%

66.9%

11.7

167.0

Dan Buckner

103

773

59.2%

7.5

20.7%

57.3%

7.4

94.7

David Richards

6'4, 201

So.

*** (5.6)

298

60.4%

6.2

9.6%

56.3%

6.2

36.5

Ka'Deem Carey

5'10, 196

Jr.

**** (5.8)

313

85.7%

7.5

8.4%

50.0%

6.9

38.3

Tyler Slavin

210

53.8%

5.4

7.8%

56.4%

5.3

25.7

Richard Morrison

SLOT

5'11, 174

Sr.

*** (5.5)

171

62.2%

4.6

7.4%

78.4%

5.1

20.9

Garic Wharton

SLOT

6'0, 167

Jr.

*** (5.7)

268

57.1%

7.7

7.0%

62.9%

7.7

32.8

Johnny Jackson

SLOT

5'10, 176

So.

187

73.5%

5.5

6.8%

61.8%

5.5

22.9

Terrence Miller

6'4, 234

Sr.

*** (5.6)

143

68.4%

7.5

3.8%

52.6%

8.1

17.5

Taimi Tutogi

71.4%

4.6

2.8%

71.4%

4.8

7.8

Sean Willet

50.0%

12.0

0.8%

0.0%

9.5

5.9

Daniel Jenkins

5'9, 197

Sr.

**** (5.8)

100.0%

7.5

0.8%

75.0%

9.3

3.7

Michael Cooper

6'5, 246

Jr.

*** (5.6)

Trey Griffey

6'3, 190

RSFr.

*** (5.6)

Davonte Neal
(2012 Notre Dame)

5'10, 175

So.

**** (5.9)

-5

50.0%

-2.5

0.5%

100.0%

-1.5

-0.8

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111.9	3.31	3.79	44.1%	76.8%	14.1%	203.2	2.3%	4.0%
Rank	19	10	14	14	17	7	14	18	22

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Mickey Baucus	LT	6'8, 305	Jr.	*** (5.5)	25 career starts
Fabbians Ebbele	RT	6'8, 309	Jr.	*** (5.6)	25 career starts
Kyle Quinn	C				22 career starts
Chris Putton	LG	6'4, 280	Sr.	*** (5.6)	19 career starts
Trace Biskin	RG				17 career starts
Shane Zink	RG				12 career starts
Addison Bachman	C				4 career starts
Cayman Bundage	LG	6'2, 261	So.	*** (5.6)	1 career start
Faitele Faafoi	RG	6'4, 321	So.	*** (5.6)
Zach Hemmila	OL	6'3, 318	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Beau Boyster	OL	6'4, 264	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Steven Gurrola	OL	6'2, 285	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Logan Stott	OL	6'3, 300	Fr.	**** (5.8)

5. An overachieving line rebuilds

While Scott, Carey and Hill stole the headlines, the offensive line's improvement in 2012 was stunning. Arizona ranked 119th, almost dead last in FBS, in Adj. Line Yards in 2011. Injuries and youth mixed to form a poisonous cocktail up front. But in 2012, the combination of experience and a change in coaches and style provided an almost 180-degree turnaround. Arizona ranked 19th in Adj. Line Yards last fall; and as we see above, it was strong across the board, in short yardage, in keeping opponents out of the backfield, and in creating opportunities for Carey, Scott, and company.

In 2013, two enormous, experienced tackles return, but there is quite a bit of rebuilding to be done on the interior. In players like Zach Hemmila and Logan Stott, Arizona has some interesting, young players to add to the mix, but it might be difficult to sustain last year's gains with depleted depth.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	122	59	77	52
RUSHING	107	59	90	40
PASSING	121	57	46	64
Standard Downs		44	65	35
Passing Downs		88	94	85
Redzone		51	71	35

Q1 Rk	34	1st Down Rk	50
Q2 Rk	76	2nd Down Rk	64
Q3 Rk	102	3rd Down Rk	102
Q4 Rk	58

6. Going after the ball

When your offense is moving the ball and creating a ton of quick possessions, and when you live life in the Pac-12 (and play Oklahoma State, Toledo, and Nevada out of conference), there is no way to avoid giving up quite a few yards and points. And in terms of pure yards per game, Arizona allowed more than almost anybody in the country.

But don't let that fool you: The Wildcats improved quite a bit on the defensive side of the ball last year. There were certainly still issues, especially when it comes to rushing the passer (Arizona couldn't do it), but the Wildcats were average in most phases on defense, and while average is not preferable long-term, it was still an improvement.

Rodriguez possibly pulled off a coup in getting defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel to follow him West; Casteel was the engineer of some really fun, interesting 3-3-5 defenses at West Virginia under both Rodriguez and his successor (Bill Stewart). Changing to an unorthodox scheme can be awkward until you get your own personnel in place, but Arizona did still manage improvement, and that's an encouraging sign ... especially considering virtually everybody returns in 2013.

Arizona's biggest defensive strength was in simply getting its hands on the ball. The Wildcats defensed 70 passes (25th in the country) and forced 19 fumbles (ninth). They also logged a decent 66 tackles for loss. The pass rush was non-existent, and the undersized defensive line did not wreak as much havoc as Casteel would have preferred, but one could at least see what Arizona wanted to do on defense.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96.6	3.27	3.84	43.2%	63.8%	15.6%	58.9	3.3%	3.0%
Rank	72	105	115	111	39	106	119	102	116

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dan Pettinato	DT	6'4, 265	Jr.	*** (5.5)	11	28.0	3.4%	1.5	0	0	2	0	2
Sione Tuihalamaka	NT	6'2, 276	Sr.	*** (5.7)	13	21.5	2.6%	2	0.5	0	0	0	0
Tevin Hood	NT	6'0, 293	Sr.	** (5.2)	13	19.5	2.3%	3	0	0	0	1	0
Willie Mobley	DT				13	16.5	2.0%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Reggie Gilbert	DE	6'4, 264	Jr.	*** (5.5)	11	15.0	1.8%	6	3.5	0	0	0	2
Dominique Austin	DL				6	10.5	1.3%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Kirifi Taula	DL	6'4, 260	Jr.	*** (5.7)	11	7.0	0.8%	2	0.2	0	0	0	0
Justin Washington	DE	6'2, 244	Sr.	** (5.3)
Kyle Kelley	DE	6'3, 250	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Dwight Melvin	DE	6'1, 273	RSFr.	*** (5.7)

7. You're only as good as your line

Casteel was able to put quite a bit of speed on the field in the back eight of the defense. Marquis Flowers made the transition from big safety to fast linebacker with ease, and there were some nice ball hawks in the secondary (namely corner Shaq Richardson and safety Tra'Mayne Bondurant). But despite overall improvement, the line still held the defense back a bit. And it's not immediately evident that things will be different in this regard in 2013.

If Reggie Gilbert can develop some more consistency, that could help; Gilbert missed part of the season with a high ankle sprain, and while six of his 15.0 tackles were behind the line of scrimmage (an impressive ratio), he still made only 15.0 tackles. But Tevin Hood is the only regular returnee bigger than 276, and it's difficult to keep the offensive line away from linebackers if you're getting pushed around too much.

Linebackers

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Jake Fischer

MLB

6'0, 222

Sr.

*** (5.6)

97.5

11.7%

6.5

Marquis Flowers

SLB

6'3, 229

Sr.

**** (5.9)

78.5

9.4%

5.5

Sir Thomas Jackson

WLB

6'0, 205

So.

44.5

5.3%

1.5

C.J. Dozier

SLB

6'2, 205

So.

*** (5.7)

22.0

2.6%

Hank Hobson

WLB

6'3, 236

Jr.

*** (5.5)

12.0

1.4%

Dakota Conwell

MLB

6'2, 217

So.

*** (5.5)

9.5

1.1%

Keoni Bush-Loo

6'4, 229

So.

** (5.4)

1.5

0.2%

DeAndre Miller

6'2, 230

Fr.

*** (5.7)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jared Tevis	BANDIT	5'10, 197	Jr.	NR	11	66.5	8.0%	1	0	2	6	4	0
Tra'Mayne Bondurant	SPUR	5'10, 188	Jr.	** (5.4)	12	61.5	7.4%	11.5	0	2	7	2	0
Jourdon Grandon	FS	6'0, 192	Jr.	*** (5.6)	12	48.0	5.8%	0.5	0	1	6	1	1
Shaquille Richardson	CB	6'1, 182	Sr.	*** (5.7)	13	47.5	5.7%	2	0	1	14	1	1
Derick Rainey	CB	6'1, 181	Sr.	** (5.4)	13	42.0	5.0%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Jonathan McKnight	CB	5'11, 167	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	42.0	5.0%	0.5	0.5	3	4	0	1
Patrick Onwuasor	BANDIT	6'1, 211	So.	*** (5.7)	12	30.5	3.7%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Vincente Miles, Jr.	FS	6'1, 189	So.	NR	13	22.0	2.6%	0.5	0	0	0	0	1
Wayne Capers, Jr.	SPUR	6'1, 201	So.	*** (5.6)	11	11.0	1.3%	1	0	0	1	1	0
William Parks	FS	6'1, 184	So.	*** (5.5)	13	8.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Blake Brady	S	5'11, 195	Jr.	NR	13	8.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jamar Allah	FS	6'1, 193	So.	** (5.4)	11	5.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brendan Murphy	CB	5'11, 176	Sr.	NR	13	4.5	0.5%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Richard Morrison	CB	5'11, 174	Sr.	*** (5.5)
Anthony Lopez	S	5'11, 208	So.	*** (5.7)
Derek Babiash	DB	6'0, 173	Fr.	*** (5.7)

8. Find a pass rush, and the secondary will thrive

Despite ranking 119th in Adj. Sack Rate (which held the Wildcats back considerably on passing downs), Arizona still ranked 57th in overall Passing S&P+ last season. That's a sign that the secondary did its job pretty well last year, all things considered. And the unit returns fully intact this fall, which is exciting. The three safeties in the 3-3-5 scheme were all sophomores last year (the backups were freshmen), but they still managed to wreak havoc. Bondurant in particular was just awesome in this regard, combining 11.5 tackles for loss with nine passes defensed.

The pass rush doesn't need to improve a lot for Arizona's defense to begin looking pretty good, but clearly the secondary needs at least a little bit more help here. Harass the quarterback more frequently, and watch the defensive backs begin to rack up the picks and big hits.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Kyle Dugandzic			52	43.2	1	12	24	69.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
John Bonano			87	59.8	42	48.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
John Bonano			58-59	11-16	68.8%	3-4	75.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
David Richards	KR	6'4, 201	So.	16	20.6	0
Johnny Jackson	KR	5'10, 176	So.	5	18.2	0
Jared Baker	KR	5'8, 191	So.	5	20.0	0
Richard Morrison	PR	5'11, 174	Sr.	13	10.2	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	93
Net Punting	38
Net Kickoffs	36
Touchback Pct	23
Field Goal Pct	68
Kick Returns Avg	101
Punt Returns Avg	33

9. Hitting reset on the field position battle

Despite the occasional inability of the defense to close out drives in timely fashion, Arizona still ranked a respectable 54th in Field Position Advantage, thanks in part to the work of Kyle Dugandzic and John Bonano in the punting and kicking departments. Arizona ranked in the top 40 in both net punting and net kicking; they were assets, and now they're both gone. Richard Morrison is a hell of a punt returner, but in all, this unit could regress a bit in 2013.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	Northern Arizona	NR
7-Sep	at UNLV	110
14-Sep	UTSA	114
28-Sep	at Washington	45
10-Oct	at USC	17
19-Oct	Utah	52
26-Oct	at Colorado	115
2-Nov	at California	68
9-Nov	UCLA	43
16-Nov	Washington State	97
23-Nov	Oregon	2
30-Nov	at Arizona State	34

Five-Year F/+ Rk	37
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	43
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-1 / +3.5
TO Luck/Game	-1.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	17 (6, 11)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-0.3

10. Play well on the road

The Pac-12 is loaded with decent-to-good teams, but Arizona's schedule is as navigable as it comes in 2013. First of all, the non-conference slate is almost embarrassingly easy. But beyond that, the Wildcats draw Washington and Washington State (and, yes, Oregon) from the Pac-12 North. It could be worse.

There is still a tricky aspect to the schedule, however: A lot of Arizona's easier games (on paper) come on the road. The Wildcats must travel to UNLV, Colorado and California, teams they would be favored to beat rather easily at home. A schedule like this could cut either way; either you're good enough to beat lesser teams on the road and scare the hell out of better teams (UCLA, Oregon) at home, or you're shaky enough to get upset away from home and not good enough to beat the Oregons of the world.

If UA can take care of business against the Colorados of the world, then the Wildcats could pretty easily put together another six to eight wins this year. Eventually, Arizona fans got impatient with seven-win seasons when Mike Stoops was in charge (from 2006-10, UA went 6-6, 5-7, 8-5, 8-5, and 7-6), but considering the gains Rodriguez made last year, and considering the iffy offseason the offense had, another 7-5 season would surely suffice for now.