College Football

2013 NC State football's 10 things to know: Perfect mediocrity and a light home schedule

Tom O'Brien's legacy at NC State: he built a perfectly average program. Fast-riser Dave Doeren will now see if you can do something more in Raleigh. He's passed the tests he's been given thus far, but don't expect much in 2013. For more NC State, visit Backing the Pack.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Aug 13, 2013, 9:00am EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Perfectly average, Part II

I may have been a little quick on the trigger in naming Washington the most perfectly average team in the country.

In the Adj. Points measure I use below, the idea is to take a team's performance in a given week and gauge what would have happened if that team had played a perfectly average opponent that week instead of whoever it played. It is an attempt to adjust for schedule and look at a team's in-season trends. But really, it could also be titled "WashingtonScore." because Washington has spent most of the last eight seasons as an almost perfectly average team.

Now, to be sure, Washington has been amazingly average, ranking between 50th and 78th in seven of the last eight seasons. But if you take out NC State's random 2010 peak (22nd and 9-4), the Wolfpack have ranked 65th, 64th, 50th, 64th, 58th, and 63rd from 2006-12. That's ... well, that's average.

In six years under Tom O'Brien, NC State went 40-35, building at least a little bit of momentum (16-21 first three years, 24-14 next three) but evidently not enough to buy O'Brien a seventh year. Averaging an 8-5 record, as the Wolfpack did over the previous three years, is certainly not bad for a program that hasn't been a consistent top-25 presence for quite a while.

But it's not necessarily something you aspire to; neither is "average," and almost everything about O'Brien's tenure was average.

More: Bill C. previewing every ACC team And every other team, too

2. MACtion road show

So now State starts fresh with a MAC transplant. Dave Doeren has taken the fast track to success; 13 years ago, Doeren was Montana's defensive backs coach. Just six years later, he was named Bret Bielema's defensive co-coordinator at Wisconsin. Five years later, he was named head coach at Northern Illinois. And two years later, at age 41, he's a BCS head coach. His last two Wisconsin defenses ranked in the Def. F/+ top-30, and in inheriting an 11-win conference runner-up from Jerry Kill at NIU, he didn't do much to change the program's trajectory. He went 22-6, won two conference titles, reached the MAC's first BCS bowl, and in 2012, fielded a legitimately strong, top-35 team.

We don't know Dave Doeren's ceiling yet because he hasn't reached it. He grew into previous jobs, and he didn't take long to do the same in his first head coaching position. He is tasked with taking NC State somewhere it really hasn't been in a while. The Wolfpack have had randomly good seasons -- 9-4 in 2010, 11-3 in 2002, 34-14-1 from 1991-94 -- but haven't been consistently strong for a while. He inherits a roster that is intriguing but thin, and it's conceivable that, before successfully bringing MACtion-level excitement and wins to Raleigh, he's in for another growing-into-the-job experience.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 \| Adj. Record: 7-6 \| Final F/+ Rk: 63
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
31-Aug	vs. Tennessee	21-35	L	22.0 - 28.4	L
8-Sep	at Connecticut	10-7	W	20.7 - 21.1	L
15-Sep	South Alabama	31-7	W	25.9 - 29.1	L
22-Sep	The Citadel	52-14	W	35.0 - 32.1	W
29-Sep	at Miami	37-44	L	36.8 - 34.0	W
6-Oct	Florida State	17-16	W	31.9 - 16.9	W
20-Oct	at Maryland	20-18	W	22.9 - 39.1	L
27-Oct	at North Carolina	35-43	L	36.2 - 25.9	W
3-Nov	Virginia	6-33	L	13.1 - 31.6	L
10-Nov	Wake Forest	37-6	W	24.4 - 10.4	W
17-Nov	at Clemson	48-62	L	36.3 - 33.7	W
24-Nov	Boston College	27-10	W	16.9 - 20.3	L
31-Dec	vs. Vanderbilt	24-38	L	38.6 - 15.4	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	28.1	71	25.6	52
Adj. Points Per Game	27.8	69	26.0	44

3. One goes up, one goes down

Aside from a first-quarter slump versus Tennessee, NC State's defense was a rock early in 2012, allowing just 28 points to three bad offenses (UConn, South Alabama, The Citadel) and only 13 points to Tennessee in the final three quarters. But the offense wasn't good enough to keep up with the Vols, and it barely produced enough to get by UConn. As the year went on, the offense improved and the defense regressed. And then the offense regressed while the defense improved again.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): Opponent 26.2, NC State 22.9 (minus-3.3)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): NC State 32.6, Opponent 29.6 (plus-3.0)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 5 games): NC State 25.9, Opponent 22.3 (plus-3.6)

It was just one of those seasons. Aside from the second half of the Florida State game, both units rarely played well at the same time. And the result was, as you would expect, average.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	48	57	58	57
RUSHING	110	100	75	107
PASSING	18	44	47	45
Standard Downs		49	52	49
Passing Downs		72	74	71
Redzone		53	40	58

Q1 Rk	46	1st Down Rk	50
Q2 Rk	92	2nd Down Rk	97
Q3 Rk	39	3rd Down Rk	28
Q4 Rk	55

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Mike Glennon

330

564

4,031

58.5%

6.0%

6.3

Manny Stocker

6'1, 212

So.

*** (5.5)

0.0%

60.0%

-2.8

Brandon Mitchell
(2012 Arkansas)

6'4, 239

Sr.

*** (5.7)

25.0%

11.1%

4.9

Pete Thomas
(2011 Colorado State)

6'6, 234

Jr.

**** (5.8)

161

261

1,607

61.7%

9.4%

5.0

4. Transfer derby

Incumbent quarterbacks are often assets for new coaches, but sometimes a lot of new blood at once isn't a bad thing either. As morbidly interesting as it may have been to see Mike Glennon attempting to be Doeren's new Jordan Lynch, running and passing almost equally, it might have been for the best to start fresh.

There is a lot of new blood at quarterback this year. Colorado State transfer Pete Thomas came to Raleigh to play for Tom O'Brien, but he showed a little bit of mobility in Fort Collins. And at Arkansas, Brandon Mitchell showed enough mobility that the Hogs moved him to receiver for a while. It appears that while Thomas began fall camp ahead of Mitchell and everybody else, Mitchell has caught up quickly.

New offensive coordinator Matt Canada has gotten used to adjusting his system to the talent at hand. After working with Lynch at NIU in 2011, he became Wisconsin's offensive coordinator last season and worked with a pro-style passer at the start of the season (Danny O'Brien), more of a conservative, dual-threat type at the end (Curt Phillips), and an in-between in between (Joel Stave). It does appear that Doeren and Canada do enjoy a bit of mobility at the quarterback position, so that might help to explain why Mitchell is becoming an appealing option.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Shadrach Thornton	RB	6'1, 203	So.	*** (5.6)	154	694	4.5	3.2	3	-6.6
Tony Creecy	RB	5'11, 210	Jr.	**** (5.8)	127	476	3.7	3.0	5	-0.4
Brandon Barnes	RB				44	125	2.8	2.1	1	-9.3
Mustafa Greene	RB				28	101	3.6	2.2	0	-1.7
James Washington	RB				27	77	2.9	3.0	1	-3.3
Mike Glennon	QB				20	78	3.9	3.0	2	-0.4
Milton Hall	RB	5'9, 200	Jr.	NR	7	49	7.0	3.4	0	-0.4
Tobais Palmer	WR				7	60	8.6	16.7	0	+1.8
Matt Dayes	RB	5'9, 213	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Josh Mercer	RB	5'11, 191	Fr.	*** (5.6)

5. Finding a running game

Between Doeren and Canada, the odds are good that NC State will look to run the ball as much as it is able to do. Unfortunately, the Wolfpack weren't that able in 2012; they ranked just 100th in Rushing S&P+, with minimal ability to either break off a big play or keep Mike Glennon out of obvious passing situations. If there's quality to be found here, Doeren and Canada will probably unearth it, but it's hard to get too excited about anything regarding this running game.

Shadrach Thornton (suspended for the season opener) and Tony Creecy showed next to no explosiveness on the rare opportunity that they got to the second level of the defense, and the line is now tasked with replacing four two-year (or more) starters who combined for 137 career starts. Now, because of injuries and shuffling, NC State still returns four players with starting experience (41 career starts), including former five-star recruit Rob Crisp.

But this line was average at best last year, and there's nothing saying it will be any better this time around, especially since new offensive line coach Mike Uremovich is in his first year of coaching the offensive line. Sometimes you can just assume certain coaches are going to have quality lines; we have no data for assuming anything, good or bad, of Uremovich.

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Quintin Payton

WR-X

6'4, 212

Sr.

*** (5.5)

798

59.3%

9.3

15.9%

64.0%

9.3

93.3

Tobais Palmer

781

65.1%

9.4

15.3%

69.9%

9.6

91.3

Bryan Underwood

WR-F

5'9, 180

Jr.

*** (5.7)

620

53.0%

7.5

15.3%

54.2%

7.8

72.5

Mario Carter

367

63.0%

6.8

10.0%

61.1%

6.8

42.9

Tony Creecy

5'11, 210

Jr.

**** (5.8)

182

66.7%

3.6

9.4%

41.2%

3.9

21.3

Shadrach Thornton

6'1, 203

So.

*** (5.6)

274

65.2%

6.0

8.5%

54.3%

5.8

32.0

Asa Watson

6'3, 237

Sr.

*** (5.5)

282

57.1%

6.7

7.8%

64.3%

6.7

33.0

Rashard Smith

WR-Z

5'9, 177

Sr.

** (5.4)

315

57.6%

9.5

6.1%

48.5%

9.0

36.8

Charlie Hegedus

WR-X

6'2, 210

So.

*** (5.5)

116

56.3%

7.3

3.0%

31.3%

6.5

13.6

Logan Winkles

6'1, 260

Jr.

*** (5.6)

62.5%

5.6

3.0%

62.5%

5.6

10.5

James Washington

61.5%

4.5

2.4%

38.5%

3.8

6.8

Maurice Morgan

WR-F

6'2, 226

So.

*** (5.5)

David J. Grinnage

6'5, 267

RSFr.

** (5.4)

Johnathan Alston

6'3, 203

Fr.

*** (5.6)

Jumichael Ramos

6'3, 198

Fr.

*** (5.6)

Bra'Lon Cherry

WR-Z

5'11, 180

Fr.

*** (5.5)

6. So can they pass then?

So if running is an issue, will State have the pieces to pass in 2013? Both Mitchell and Thomas are probably more adept than their previous passing experience would suggest -- Mitchell was tossed into an awful experience at Arkansas last year, throwing a few passes while spending most of the year as a receiver, while Thomas just had no weapons whatsoever in 2011 at CSU -- but what about the receiving corps? It might be rather underrated, actually.

The Wolfpack didn't have amazing depth at receiver, but the pieces they did have were pretty strong; they weren't strong enough to prevent Glennon from throwing 17 interceptions, often into coverage (and since interceptions don't have target data attached to them, the picks make these players' catch rates look a bit better than they were), but in Quintin Payton, State returns a No. 1 receiver who averaged a healthy 9.3 yards per target. Bryan Underwood averaged a decent 7.5, and reserve Rashard Smith averaged 9.5. The O'Brien offense saw a ton of dump-offs to the running back, and those passes tended to go nowhere last year (Creecy and Thornton combined to average just 4.7 yards per target), but the receivers themselves were relatively impressive.

Still, you have to avoid passing downs to pass consistently and effectively, and this run game might put Mitchell, Thomas, or whoever into quite a few second- or third-and-longs.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	102.7	2.72	2.95	35.1%	64.4%	18.8%	87.3	6.9%	5.7%
Rank	62	93	83	103	85	58	77	102	49

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
R.J. Mattes	LG				43 career starts; 2012 2nd All-ACC
Camden Wentz	C				39 career starts
Zach Allen	RG				31 career starts
Andrew Wallace	RG				24 career starts
Duran Christophe	LG	6'5, 300	Sr.	*** (5.5)	18 career starts
Tyson Chandler	RT	6'7, 334	Jr.	**** (5.8)	12 career starts
Rob Crisp	LT	6'7, 300	Sr.	***** (6.1)	11 career starts
Cam Fordham	RG	6'2, 294	Jr.	*** (5.6)	1 career start
Quincy McKinney	LT
Joe Thuney	C	6'5, 286	So.	*** (5.5)
Andy Jomantas	RT	6'7, 297	Jr.	** (5.2)
Alex Barr	RG	6'7, 326	So.	*** (5.5)
Bryce Kennedy	G	6'3, 310	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Jon Tu'uta	C	6'2, 311	RSFr.	** (5.3)
Tylar Reagan	OL	6'5, 298	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Cole Blankenship	LG	6'2, 290	Fr.	*** (5.5)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	69	58	43	72
RUSHING	53	88	85	90
PASSING	85	39	20	59
Standard Downs		76	80	79
Passing Downs		37	11	68
Redzone		72	83	66

Q1 Rk	90	1st Down Rk	80
Q2 Rk	18	2nd Down Rk	53
Q3 Rk	79	3rd Down Rk	35
Q4 Rk	43

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	93.3	2.67	3.32	38.2%	61.3%	23.0%	113.8	6.4%	6.4%
Rank	88	26	69	56	25	19	42	18	62

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
T.Y. McGill	DT	6'1, 293	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	32.5	4.3%	10.5	5	0	0	1	0
Thomas Teal	NT	6'1, 303	Jr.	*** (5.7)	13	28.5	3.8%	7.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Darryl Cato-Bishop	DE	6'3, 286	Sr.	** (5.4)	13	28.0	3.7%	10.5	6.5	0	1	0	0
Art Norman	DE	6'0, 250	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	27.5	3.7%	8	5.5	0	0	1	0
Brian Slay	DE				12	21.0	2.8%	6	2	0	3	1	1
A.J. Ferguson	NT	6'2, 301	Sr.	*** (5.5)	11	8.0	1.1%	2	2	0	0	1	0
McKay Frandsen	DE				13	6.0	0.8%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Rose	DE	6'3, 252	So.	*** (5.6)	13	6.0	0.8%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Carlos Gray	DT	6'3, 296	So.	*** (5.5)	11	5.5	0.7%	0	0	0	1	0	1
Forrest West	DE	6'1, 251	Sr.	NR	6	2.5	0.3%	1	1	0	2	0	0
K'Hadree Hooker	DT	6'0, 307	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Monty Nelson	DT	6'2, 310	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Kenton Gibbs	DT	6'2, 290	Fr.	*** (5.7)

7. Weakness is strength

O'Brien and company tried to keep things pretty aggressive on defense, but it was a lot more difficult to do that after two awesome linebackers -- Audie Cole and Terrell Manning, who combined for 28 tackles for loss, 11 sacks, 12 passes defensed, and eight forced fumbles in 2011 -- left. State's Adj. Sack Rate fell from 16th to 42nd, and a defense that made a living on picks in 2011 didn't reel in quite as many. (This was expected, of course: David Amersen picked off 13 of his 18 defensed passes in 2011, which unsustainable. That ratio dropped to a still strong five of 17 in 2012.) Thirty-nine takeaways in 2011 became 24 in 2012. Considering turnovers are worth, on average, about five points of field position, that's nearly six points per game that State wasn't benefiting from in 2012.

That said, the pass defense was still a relative strength for NC State; the Wolfpack's biggest problems came up front, where they ranked 88th in both Rushing S&P+ and Adj. Line Yards. They still made plays behind the line -- they were 10th in the country in tackles for loss -- but allowed too many opportunities to opposing rushers.

To the extent that experience can help this, experience will help this. The top four linemen, and five of the top six, return. Ends Darryl Cato-Bishop and Art Norman combined for 12 sacks and 18.5 tackles for loss last season, and tackles T.Y. McGill and Thomas Teal combined for 18.0 TFLs themselves. New defensive coordinator Dave Huxtable (yes, Huxtable) led a Pittsburgh unit that was at least a little bit less all-or-nothing on the ground, and if he can teach these upperclassmen some control, good things could happen, and a weakness could become a strength. And while Rickey Dowdy was a hell of a play-maker at linebacker, there should be enough returning talent at linebacker to do well, as long as the LBs aren't asked to clean up quite as many messes.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Rickey Dowdy	WLB				13	67.5	9.0%	16.5	3.5	0	2	0	2
Sterling Lucas	MLB				13	59.5	7.9%	5.5	2	1	2	0	1
Rodman Noel	SLB	6'4, 221	Jr.	**** (5.8)	12	36.5	4.9%	6	1	0	1	0	0
Brandon Pittman	WLB	6'2, 224	Jr.	*** (5.5)	13	28.0	3.7%	4	1	0	0	0	0
D.J. Green (2011)	SLB	6'4, 228	Sr.	*** (5.5)	7	24.5	3.6%	5	1	1	4	0	0
Zach Gentry	MLB	6'1, 233	Sr.	NR	13	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Cheek	MLB	6'0, 235	Sr.	*** (5.5)	11	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
M.J. Salahuddin	MLB	6'2, 227	So.	*** (5.6)	12	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ernie Robinson	LB	6'1, 227	RSFr.	NR	4	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Drew Davis	WLB	6'3, 232	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Jerod Fernandez	LB	6'1, 226	Fr.	*** (5.6)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Earl Wolff	SS				13	97.0	12.9%	4	0	2	7	1	1
Brandan Bishop	FS				13	87.0	11.6%	3	0	3	7	2	1
Dontae Johnson	CB	6'2, 195	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13	61.0	8.1%	6	1	0	8	1	0
David Amerson	CB				13	54.5	7.3%	1	0	5	12	0	0
Juston Burris	CB	6'1, 206	So.	*** (5.6)	13	39.0	5.2%	3	1	3	6	0	0
C.J. Wilson	CB				9	10.5	1.4%	0.5	0	1	1	1	1
Hakim Jones	SS	6'2, 202	So.	*** (5.5)	13	7.0	0.9%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Josh Stanley	FS	6'0, 198	So.	NR	13	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jarvis Byrd	FS	5'11, 183	Sr.	**** (5.8)
Tim Buckley	SS	6'0, 200	So.	** (5.4)
Niles Clark	CB	5'11, 188	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
J.J. Jones	S	6'3, 206	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Marchez Coates	CB	5'10, 178	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Jack Tocho	CB	6'1, 195	Fr.	*** (5.6)
Sean Paul	CB	5'10, 184	Fr.	*** (5.6)

8. Strength is weakness

The secondary was, like the line, a bit too prone to give up big plays in 2012, but it still led a pretty efficient life overall. Considering the regression in the pass rush, the defensive backs held their own alright.

Of course, a lot of that "holding their own" was done by safeties Earl Wolff and Brandan Bishop and, yes, corner David Amerson. The three combined for eight tackles for loss, 10 interceptions, 26 passes defensed, and three forced fumbles; that's a lot of production, enough to offset some of the big plays. Like the linebackers, they were asked to do too much (Wolff and Bishop alone recorded nearly one-quarter of State's tackles), but they were solid. And now they're gone.

While corners Dontae Johnson and Juston Burris had their share of moments last year (17 passes defensed, nine tackles for loss), they could find themselves pretty lonely in 2013. Returning safeties combined for just 10.5 tackles last year, and it is all but guaranteed that newcomers will be playing a hefty role in the secondary. Sometimes that works out fine; often, it doesn't.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Wil Baumann	6'6, 190	Jr.	74	38.9	5	37	16	71.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Niklas Sade	6'3, 212	Jr.	70	63.9	41	58.6%
Wil Baumann	6'6, 190	Jr.	3	61	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Niklas Sade	6'3, 212	Jr.	44-46	8-11	72.7%	5-12	41.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Tobais Palmer	KR			44	25.7	2
C.J. Wilson	KR			3	19.7	0
Logan Winkles	KR	6'1, 260	Jr.	3	9.7	0
Rashard Smith	PR	5'9, 177	Sr.	34	9.3	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	64
Net Punting	93
Net Kickoffs	9
Touchback Pct	11
Field Goal Pct	111
Kick Returns Avg	31
Punt Returns Avg	54

9. Lovers Rock

A digression: We went to Shreveport in 2003 for the Independence Bowl between Missouri and Arkansas. Mizzou lost, and while most of us had gotten over it by the time we got back to the car (it was a bowl, it didn't really matter, and after a five-year absence from the post-season, getting to a bowl at all was a victory), one of my good friends was devastated. It was his first bowl experience, and he had all of these nightmare scenarios of lost recruits and whatnot spinning through his head. We drove back to the hotel in his car, and he played Sade's Lovers Rock the entire time. We were stuck in traffic long enough that I'm pretty sure we heard the whole thing twice. It was therapeutic for him; he was back into party mode by the time we went out that night.

This is a long way of setting up a terrible Sade reference: As a kickoffs guy, Niklas Sade is By Your Side. As a place-kicker, he is the King of Sorrow. Thank you, thank you. Try the veal.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	Louisiana Tech	77
7-Sep	Richmond	NR
19-Sep	Clemson	20
28-Sep	Central Michigan	98
5-Oct	at Wake Forest	81
12-Oct	Syracuse	54
26-Oct	at Florida State	19
2-Nov	North Carolina	29
9-Nov	at Duke	88
16-Nov	at Boston College	69
23-Nov	East Carolina	74
30-Nov	Maryland	83

Five-Year F/+ Rk	49
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	56
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-9 / -11.9
TO Luck/Game	1.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	11 (5, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-0.8

10. Bowl eligibility from home games alone

There are a lot of pretty good teams in the ACC. NC State misses a lot of them. With winnable road trips to Wake Forest, Duke, and Boston College, along with less-than-intimidating visits from Maryland and North Carolina, a pretty good NC State team could rack up a pretty gaudy win total this year. But even with another average team, the home slate, which also includes visits from Richmond, Central Michigan, East Carolina, and Louisiana Tech, could make sure the Wolfpack at least get back to a bowl.

I don't really trust this team very much. I liked the Doeren hire, and we'll see what he may be able to come up with down the line, but the running game was a shambles last year, and I'm not sure how much stock to put into a defense that returns experience at potentially the wrong places and is inexperienced where it used to be strong. Tom O'Brien didn't leave the cupboard bare, but he didn't leave it well-stocked in the right places either.

But the schedule should assure that NC State is once again floating around seven or so wins, with some more average ratings overall. That's not an amazing starting point, but it could be worse.