College Football

2013 Pittsburgh football's 10 things to know: Holding steady in an awesome city

Pitt has mastered the art of overachieving in unimpressive fashion, but has weathered a series of awkward coaching changes. Can that continue after quite a bit of turnover and roster issues? For more Panthers, visit Cardiac Hill.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Aug 13, 2013, 11:00am EDT

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. The city of Pittsburgh is awesome

I've been attached to the city of Pittsburgh since I randomly (and foolishly) adopted the Pirates in the late-1980s because I loved the Bonds-Van Slyke-Bonilla outfield. I discovered the wonder that is Primanti Bros. sandwiches (and, as part of Pittsburgh initiation, got lost in the ridiculous downtown system of highways) in 1999, attended my first (and last) Pirates game at Three Rivers Stadium in 2000, knocked out trips to eight Strip District bars (and Primanti's) in about 12 hours during a one-day visit in 2001, and attended my first Pirates game at PNC Park in 2002. The city is staid and scenic, innovative (in ways that Detroit is not) and awash in tradition. It is one of America's most underrated cities, and to top it off, the University of Pittsburgh's football program just scored some major points with me by naming its practice fields after the late Beano Cook. (Side note: I also love Beano Cook.)

In other words, I am sentimental toward the city and most things associated with it. But I promise you, I haven't put a pro-Pittsburgh add-on in my numbers. There is no "If school's name starts with 'Pit,' add 10 percent to all of their totals" qualifier. That Pitt ranked 15th in the F/+ rankings in 2008, 12th in 2009, and 24th in 2010, and that the Panthers are projected a healthy 35th and 8-4 in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2013 have nothing to do with how beautiful PNC Park is, I promise.

More: Bill C. previewing every ACC team And every other team, too

2. Continuity is stronger than it probably should be

Despite two straight 6-7 records, Pittsburgh's five-year ratings are strong, powered in part by an underrated 2008-10 run but also by the fact that the Panthers, while not great, were not that bad in 2011-12, clocking in at 47th and 51st, respectively. Considering the turmoil on the sidelines, that's impressive.

Dave Wannstedt -- who, himself, may have been a bit underrated at Pitt considering he engineered three straight top-25 performances (according to F/+) and two of only three nine-win seasons at the school in the last three decades -- was let go at the end of 2010. Phil Bennett was the interim coach in the 2010 BBVA Compass Bowl.
Miami (Ohio)'s Mike Haywood was hired in December 2010, then fired two weeks later after a domestic violence arrest. (The charges were later dismissed.)
Tulsa's Todd Graham took over in 2011, then left for Arizona State after a single 6-6 season. Keith Patterson was the interim coach in the 2011 BBVA Compass Bowl.
Wisconsin offensive coordinator Paul Chryst then took over. Including interims, he was the sixth person to hold the position of "Pittsburgh head coach" over a span of 16 games. And he was still the head coach in the 2012 BBVA Compass Bowl!

Pitt now moves to the ACC perhaps in better shape than we think. Perceptions were already less positive than reality before Wannstedt left. At 9-4, Pitt indeed ranked 15th in F/+ in 2008, ahead of 10-3 Oregon and 10-3 Georgia. At 10-3, Pitt indeed ranked 12th in F/+ in 2009, ahead of 10-3 Oregon, 10-3 Wisconsin, and a 12-1 Cincinnati team that barely beat the Panthers in a late-season classic. And in 2010, when Wannstedt was let go, Pitt still ranked 24th in F/+, ahead of 11-2 Michigan State and 13-1 Nevada. The Panthers fell victim to a 1-3 record in one-possession games that year but were still competitive and interesting (well, maybe not aesthetically, but you know what I mean) overall. And at the very least, the Panthers maintained a top-50 level recently.

Heading into the first Year 2 of a Pitt coach's tenure since 2006, Pitt might once again be in better shape than we thought. An experienced defense could offset a step backwards on offense, and while 35th is indeed a little aggressive for my tastes, anything below about 50th is probably too conservative.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 \| Adj. Record: 9-4 \| Final F/+ Rk: 51
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	Youngstown State	17-31	L	31.0 - 36.4	L
6-Sep	at Cincinnati	10-34	L	30.2 - 30.0	W
15-Sep	Virginia Tech	35-17	W	44.8 - 32.2	W
22-Sep	Gardner-Webb	55-10	W	35.2 - 17.5	W
5-Oct	at Syracuse	13-14	L	22.3 - 22.2	W
13-Oct	Louisville	35-45	L	33.6 - 39.6	L
20-Oct	at Buffalo	20-6	W	23.4 - 21.2	W
27-Oct	Temple	47-17	W	42.1 - 24.0	W
3-Nov	at Notre Dame	26-29	L	24.7 - 25.4	L
9-Nov	at Connecticut	17-24	L	39.1 - 36.1	W
24-Nov	Rutgers	27-6	W	35.9 - 14.4	W
1-Dec	at South Florida	27-3	W	24.6 - 4.1	W
5-Jan	vs. Ole Miss	17-38	L	15.1 - 24.1	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	26.6	77	21.1	23
Adj. Points Per Game	30.9	44	25.2	40

3. And then the defense clicked

One reason for optimism in 2013: This defense that will have to pick up the slack for the offense this fall, already got used to doing so over the last couple of months of the season. After allowing an unacceptable 5.4 yards per play to Youngstown State in the shocking season opener, then allowing 7.9 to Cincinnati and 5.7 to Virginia Tech (almost as bad as allowing 5.4 to YSU), the defense began to figure things out, only twice playing at a below average level after September 15.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): Pitt 35.3, Opponent 32.9 (plus-2.4)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 10 games): Pitt 29.6, Opponent 22.9 (plus-6.7)

The Panthers held mostly steady against decent offenses (Notre Dame averaged 5.0 per play) and dominated some lesser ones (Rutgers averaged 3.3, USF 2.4); the defense even did its job in the bowl loss versus Ole Miss, holding the Rebels to just 4.5. When Pitt struggled late, it was usually because of an offense that is getting a forced makeover this fall.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	71	49	47	50
RUSHING	94	66	76	61
PASSING	46	41	33	46
Standard Downs		62	59	65
Passing Downs		29	26	30
Redzone		43	37	54

Q1 Rk	30	1st Down Rk	41
Q2 Rk	37	2nd Down Rk	46
Q3 Rk	71	3rd Down Rk	29
Q4 Rk	14

4. Not exactly run-first

Both Paul Chryst and offensive coordinator Joe Rudolph were Wisconsin employees before the move to Western Pennsylvania. Hell, quarterbacks coach Brooks Bollinger is a former Wisconsin quarterback. And while Pitt produced both Dan Marino and Larry Fitzgerald, it's known as much or more for running than passing. With Ray Graham and Rushel Shell in the backfield, signs pointed to a run-first attack in 2012. But the running game was only mediocre, and either by design or necessity, the Panthers actually hovered pretty close to the national averages, running 64 percent of the time on standard downs (four percent above the national average) but passing 29 percent on passing downs (nearly five percent below the average). And when there was magic (not really a frequent occurrence), it was just as likely to happen on second- or third-and-long as on run-friendly downs.

With Graham and Shell, quarterback Tino Sunseri, and three of the top four from the receiving corps gone, Pitt will have no choice but to go for a clean start and an opportunity to install whatever identity it these coaches want to install; what is that?

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Tino Sunseri

256

393

3,288

65.1%

8.8%

7.0

Trey Anderson

6'0, 195

Jr.

** (5.1)

100.0%

0.0%

26.5

Tom Savage
(2010 Rutgers)

6'5, 230

Sr.

**** (5.9)

521

51.8%

14.4%

4.4

Chad Voytik

6'1, 210

RSFr.

**** (5.9)

Tra'Von Chapman

6'2, 200

Fr.

**** (5.8)

5. Tino Sunseri got hit a lot

Tino Sunseri was the perfect exemplification of Pitt as a whole: more skilled than you probably think, with very obvious, blatant flaws. In 2012, Sunseri completed almost two-thirds of his passes and threw seven times more touchdowns than interceptions. That's fantastic by any standard, and it came despite all of the system changes that he endured in his sophomore and junior seasons.

But wow, did he take sacks. He got better -- he took an incredible 60 sacks in 2011 with a sack rate of 13.5 percent -- but he still hung in the pocket to a fault, patient to a degree of insanity. But the good outweighed the bad in the Pitt passing game; the Panthers ranked a respectable 41st in Passing S&P+, and on passing downs that patience paid off. There was method behind Sunseri's mannequin-esque qualities, and he will be more difficult to replace than we might assume.

That said, Pitt has some intriguing candidates, don't they? Rutgers transfer Tom Savage was good enough to play as a true freshman in New Jersey, though he struggled over time, playing poorly as a sophomore in 2010 and losing his job in 2011. But he had a strong pedigree at one point, and he appears to be holding off four-star redshirt freshman Chad Voytik for now. If Tra'von Chapman remains with the team after some recent issues, he could be an interesting candidate in the future.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Ray Graham	RB				222	1,042	4.7	5.6	11	+5.9
Rushel Shell	RB				141	641	4.5	4.4	4	-3.9
Tino Sunseri	QB				30	96	3.2	2.1	1	-3.4
Isaac Bennett	RB	5'11, 205	Jr.	** (5.4)	29	141	4.9	3.9	3	+0.0
Malcolm Crockett	RB	5'10, 205	So.	*** (5.5)	12	50	4.2	2.8	0	-2.2
James Conner	RB	6'2, 230	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Devin Street

6'4, 195

Sr.

** (5.4)

101

975

72.3%

9.7

26.4%

63.4%

9.7

138.7

Mike Shanahan

983

72.1%

11.4

22.5%

54.7%

11.4

139.9

Ray Graham

340

73.5%

6.9

12.8%

46.9%

6.6

48.4

Cameron Saddler

229

59.3%

8.5

7.1%

40.7%

8.8

32.6

Drew Carswell

163

56.5%

7.1

6.0%

56.5%

7.1

23.2

Rushel Shell

103

52.9%

6.1

4.5%

29.4%

4.0

14.7

J.P. Holtz

6'4, 245

So.

*** (5.6)

173

81.3%

10.8

4.2%

87.5%

14.6

24.6

Isaac Bennett

5'11, 205

Jr.

** (5.4)

53.3%

5.2

3.9%

46.7%

4.9

11.1

Ed Tinker

6'2, 195

Sr.

** (5.4)

41.7%

5.7

3.1%

33.3%

5.3

9.7

Ronald Jones

5'8, 170

Jr.

** (5.4)

58.3%

5.5

3.1%

75.0%

4.7

9.4

Hubie Graham

77.8%

6.8

2.4%

55.6%

6.5

8.7

Manasseh Garner
(2011 Wisconsin)

6'2, 230

Jr.

*** (5.5)

100.0%

22.5

0.6%

0.0%

0.0

Kevin Weatherspoon

5'10, 175

Jr.

*** (5.6)

Chris Wuestner

6'2, 205

RSFr.

Tyler Boyd

6'2, 185

Fr.

**** (5.9)

Scott Orndoff

6'5, 255

Fr.

*** (5.7)

6. The fleecing of the skill positions

I can talk all I want about how Pitt has perhaps been better than you thought over the past few years, but it's hard to get too excited about the offensive two-deep this time around. There are a lot of new pieces playing major roles. The Panthers do still have Devin Street, and that's a very good thing -- he caught a combined 21 passes for 241 yards against Syracuse and Louisville, then caught six for 140 against Temple. He is a legitimately solid No. 1 receiver who averaged nearly 10.0 yards per target last season.

The problem comes in everything after Street. The No. 2 and No. 3 wideouts are gone, as is tight end Drew Carswell. Sophomore tight end J.P. Holtz was excellent in limited opportunities last year, and junior tight end and Wisconsin transfer Manasseh Garner joins the team as well, so that's something. But returning wide receivers not named Street combined to catch just 12 of 24 passes for 134 yards (fewer than Street had vs. Temple) last year. There is potential in players like true freshman Tyler Boyd, but you'd like to have a few more proven quantities heading into the fall.

And of course, this says nothing of a running game that must replace 28 carries per game in the backfield and an all-Big East center up front. Ray Graham graduated, and star freshman Rushel Shell transferred, changed his mind, and ended up at a (former) rival school anyway. Shell was a four-star recruit, and he was certainly fine last year, but he was hardly irreplaceable. Isaac Bennett and Malcolm Crockett have both had their moments in camp, but again, they have proven almost nothing on the field. They'll be running behind a line that does return four players with starting experience (54 career starts) but was only average last year and loses center Ryan Turnley.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.6	2.66	3.20	34.8%	59.5%	19.5%	68.5	9.2%	9.3%
Rank	66	101	62	107	100	73	109	117	101

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Ryan Turnley	C				26 career starts; 2012 2nd All-Big East
Cory King	LG	6'6, 325	Sr.	*** (5.5)	18 career starts
Ryan Schlieper	RG	6'5, 310	Sr.	*** (5.5)	16 career starts
Chris Jacobson	LG				13 career starts
Matt Rotheram	RG	6'6, 340	Jr.	*** (5.7)	13 career starts
Juantez Hollins	LT	6'5, 330	Sr.	*** (5.5)	7 career starts
Arthur Doakes	RG				5 career starts
Zenel Demhasaj	RT
Shane Johnson	LG	6'5, 330	Jr.	*** (5.6)
T.J. Clemmings	RT	6'6, 305	Jr.	**** (5.8)
Artie Rowell	C	6'2, 305	So.	*** (5.5)
Adam Bisnowaty	LT	6'6, 300	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Gabe Roberts	C	6'5, 305	RSFr.	** (5.4)
John Guy	RT	6'7, 285	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Dorian Johnson	OL	6'5, 290	Fr.	***** (6.1)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	17	60	73	53
RUSHING	32	75	82	77
PASSING	20	46	73	38
Standard Downs		74	98	63
Passing Downs		38	41	38
Redzone		47	65	38

Q1 Rk	95	1st Down Rk	45
Q2 Rk	31	2nd Down Rk	24
Q3 Rk	40	3rd Down Rk	90
Q4 Rk	63

7. Bend … bend … bend…

Pitt's defense was nothing if not flexible last year. After the aforementioned early struggles, the Panthers rounded into shape as a bend-don't-break outfit, minimizing big plays and closing out drives well on passing downs despite a mediocre pass rush. They were good at taking advantage of opponent mistakes, and in college football, offenses tend to make a few mistakes.

Depending on the status of its leading returning linebacker, Pitt should return enough talent to sustain most of its second-half gains from last year. The secondary probably won't be nearly as lucky in the hands department (Jason Hendricks and K'Waun Williams picked off 10 of 15 defensed passes, with is unsustainably high) but should remain interesting and aggressive. And the Panthers still have a star at tackle.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.9	2.80	2.48	36.2%	68.3%	20.8%	95.7	5.2%	6.0%
Rank	65	41	14	34	64	42	69	44	71

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Aaron Donald

6'0, 285

Sr.

*** (5.7)

53.0

7.6%

18.5

5.5

Shayne Hale

29.5

4.2%

9.5

Tyrone Ezell

6'4, 305

Sr.

*** (5.7)

28.0

4.0%

3.5

Bryan Murphy

6'3, 255

Jr.

**** (5.8)

21.0

3.0%

4.5

T.J. Clemmings

16.5

2.4%

Devin Cook

6'4, 255

So.

*** (5.5)

12.5

1.8%

Khaynin Mosley-Smith

6'0, 305

Jr.

**** (5.8)

6.5

0.9%

Jack Lippert

6'4, 260

Sr.

**** (5.8)

4.0

0.6%

Darryl Render

6'2, 285

So.

*** (5.7)

4.0

0.6%

1.5

LaQuentin Smith

6'2, 275

Jr.

*** (5.5)

2.5

0.4%

David Durham

6'1, 255

Jr.

*** (5.6)

Luke Maclean

6'3, 250

Fr.

*** (5.7)

Justin Moody

6'3, 265

Fr.

*** (5.6)

Shakir Soto

6'3, 255

Fr.

*** (5.5)

Tyrique Jarrett

6'3, 340

Fr.

*** (5.5)

8. Aaron Donald is still here

I'm not sure how Aaron Donald still has eligibility remaining; he is the prototypical "16th year senior" in my mind, even though he didn't really begin to make an impact until his sophomore season. Regardless, he has recorded 16.5 sacks and 34.5 tackles for loss in the last two years, an incredible total. And his 53.0 tackles were third on the team, more than were recorded by the leading linebacker. You can build around a weapon like that.

At 6'0, 285, Donald is quick if perhaps a bit undersized; while Pitt's line stats suggest the linebackers pretty culpable for a good portion of the Panthers' poor rushing defense, it's probably safe to assume that Pitt could still stand up to blocks a bit better, especially in short-yardage situations. Having play-makers like Donald, senior nose Tyrone Ezell, and exciting sophomore end Devin Cook is great; but it's better if you're not also a sieve when not making plays in the backfield.

Pitt's run defense needs help all around, especially if linebacker Todd Thomas doesn't get things straightened out. Thomas briefly quit at the beginning of fall camp, and his status is unclear at the moment. If nothing else, however, the pass defense should remain solid, especially if Cook becomes more of a force in the pass rush.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
*Todd Thomas*	*WLB*	*6'2, 230*	*Jr.*	**** (5.9)	9	*49.5*	*7.1%*	*1.5*	*1.5*	1	5	0	0
Eric Williams	SLB				13	40.5	5.8%	4.5	1	1	2	0	2
Shane Gordon	MLB	6'1, 230	Sr.	*** (5.6)	10	38.5	5.5%	6	1.5	0	6	0	0
Joe Trebitz	MLB				11	22.0	3.2%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Ejuan Price (2011)	WLB	6'0, 230	So.	*** (5.5)	13	22.0	3.1%	6.5	4	0	0	0	0
Nicholas Grigsby	WLB	6'1, 220	So.	**** (5.8)	12	21.5	3.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dan Mason	LB				5	20.0	2.9%	3.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Manny Williams	LB				6	18.0	2.6%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Anthony Gonzalez	SLB	6'3, 225	Jr.	*** (5.7)	9	9.0	1.3%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Emanuel Rackard	LB	6'0, 235	Sr.	NR	9	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bam Bradley	SLB	6'2, 230	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Mike Caprara	MLB	6'0, 215	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Matt Galambos	LB	6'2, 215	Fr.	*** (5.6)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jason Hendricks	SS	6'0, 190	Sr.	** (5.3)	13	74.5	10.7%	3.5	0	6	4	0	0
Jarred Holley	SS				13	59.0	8.5%	1	0	2	4	0	1
K'Waun Williams	CB	5'10, 195	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	41.0	5.9%	2.5	0	4	1	0	0
Andrew Taglianetti	SS				13	32.0	4.6%	0	0	0	2	1	0
Lafayette Pitts	CB	5'11, 195	So.	*** (5.7)	13	29.5	4.2%	0	0	1	9	1	1
Cullen Christian	CB	6'0, 195	Jr.	**** (5.9)	12	12.5	1.8%	0	1.5	0	1	0	0
Ray Vinopal	FS	5'10, 200	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	11.0	1.6%	1.5	1	0	0	0	0
Jahmahl Pardner	CB	5'11, 175	RSFr.	*** (5.5)	3	2.5	0.4%	1	1	0	0	1	0
E.J. Banks	DB	5'11, 190	Sr.	*** (5.7)	5	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Trenton Coles	CB	6'3, 175	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Ryan Lewis	S	6'0, 195	RSFr.	*** (5.5)

9. Ball skills galore

Pitt defensed 58 passes last year; the Panthers ranked only 59th in the category, but considering pace and the fact that opponents didn't feel the need to pass with any particularly high frequency, that's a pretty healthy total. And while two starters are gone in the secondary, the return of Hendricks, Williams, and corner Lafayette Pitts should ensure another solid level of activity. Pitts held his own as a freshman, defensing 10 passes to 29.5 overall tackles (a ratio that, as I always say, suggests either strong aggressiveness or poor tackling), though he was quite a bit less lucky, snagging only one of his 10 PDs for a pick.

Michigan transfers Cullen Christian and Ray Vinopal were only bit players as sophomores, but the depth here is pretty good. And at the linebacker position, Shane Gordon and Thomas were both pretty solid in pass defense (and shaky against the run). Seal up some of the leaky run defense, and the overall product improves pretty quickly.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Matt Yoklic	6'4, 220	Sr.	61	41.8	6	10	19	47.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Kevin Harper			70	58.5	12	17.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Kevin Harper			40-40	13-16	81.3%	7-11	63.6%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Lafayette Pitts	KR	5'11, 195	So.	30	24.3	0
Cameron Saddler	KR			6	19.7	0
Cameron Saddler	PR			17	7.4	0
Ronald Jones	PR	5'8, 170	Jr.	4	14.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	51
Net Punting	103
Net Kickoffs	107
Touchback Pct	110
Field Goal Pct	54
Kick Returns Avg	43
Punt Returns Avg	39

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
2-Sep	Florida State	19
14-Sep	New Mexico	121
21-Sep	at Duke	88
28-Sep	Virginia	71
12-Oct	at Virginia Tech	23
19-Oct	Old Dominion	NR
26-Oct	at Navy	87
2-Nov	at Georgia Tech	32
9-Nov	Notre Dame	13
16-Nov	North Carolina	29
23-Nov	at Syracuse	54
29-Nov	Miami	25

Five-Year F/+ Rk	23
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	41
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+12 / +11.1
TO Luck/Game	0.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (5, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-1.0

10. A nice schedule if you're good enough

Pretend for a moment that Pittsburgh is indeed a top-30 or top-35 team in 2013. With so much change on the offense, that might be too ambitious, but if the Panthers reach that level, this schedule sets up nicely. Of five projected top-30 opponents, four visit Heinz Field; this is a lovely "Welcome to the ACC" schedule, though it will be accompanied by a pretty rough slate next season.

I'm not completely ruling out the thought of Pitt upsetting Florida State on the season's opening Monday night, but even if/when that doesn't happen, the Panthers should return to bowl eligibility by holding serve against decent teams and beating bad ones on the road.

Considering all of the recent turnover and turmoil -- drama which, with Shell's transfer, Thomas' quitting and non-quitting, and Chapman's arrest, hasn't completely abated yet -- simply maintaining top-50 form in Paul Chryst's second season (and Pitt's first in a new league) should probably be considered a bit of a victory. Pitt has mastered the art of overachieving in unimpressive fashion, and while the bar will eventually be raised, one more year of treading water wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.