College Football

2013 North Carolina football's 10 things to know: Success, failure, bandits, and life without Gio

UNC has weathered an NCAA storm and won 39 games in the last five years. Life is better for the Heels than it was when Butch Davis took over, but can Larry Fedora and his second-year Heels kick things up a notch or two?

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Aug 14, 2013, 9:00am EDT

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Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Butch Davis succeeded (sort of)

In 2007, Butch Davis was hired to restore pride for a program that didn't have much. Always a basketball-first school, UNC had still experienced solid recent success, first with four straight top-20 appearances under Dick Crum in the early-1980s, then with a 21-3 run and two top-10 finishes under Mack Brown in the mid-1990s. When Brown left for Texas, however, things went south quickly. Carl Torbush won seven games in his first post-Mack season, then won nine in his next two. John Bunting took over, went 8-5 in his first year, then never again finished above .500. Bunting's final team, in 2006, was plain awful, going 3-9 and placing 93rd in the F/+ rankings.

UNC had won just 19 games in the five years before Davis arrived and went just 4-8 in his first season. But in the last five years, the Tar Heels have won 39 games and have generated five straight top-50 appearances in the F/+ rankings. They won at Florida State in 2010 and seven of their final nine and tied for the division lead in 2012. My friend Paul Myerberg opened his UNC preview by saying, "Don't look now, but we're entering an exciting age of North Carolina football." I'm not sure if I can go that far, but things certainly look better in Larry Fedora's second year than they did in Davis'.

So ... the Davis era, while over, was kind of a success then, right? He was hired to turn the program, and he did, and now his replacement, Larry Fedora, has people truly optimistic about the team's near and distant future.

Oh yeah, and the Davis era also produced vacated wins, scholarship reductions, a postseason ban, and probation following a series of violations encompassing academic transgressions, agent benefits, and ineligible players.

This is in no way a black-and-white world, no matter how badly we want that to be the case. We label coaches good and bad, successful and unsuccessful. But while the Davis era is generally regarded as one of John Blake, sanctions, frustration (they were supposed to win more games), underachieving recruits, and Dwight Jones' birthday party, when it comes to wins and setting the table for wins, Davis succeeded. Odd.

Regardless of how it got here, the North Carolina program is in better shape than it had been for a while. The Heels went 8-4 in a postseason-free 2012 season, with three losses coming by a combined nine points.

UNC did only place 46th in the F/+ rankings, about the same as the previous three seasons (and quite a bit worse than 2008); and the Heels do now have to hit the field without by far their biggest offensive weapon (running back Giovani Bernard) and possibly their two best defenders (linebacker Kevin Reddick, tackle Sylvester Williams). The 4-2-5 defense Larry Fedora brought to town didn't necessarily take, and in all, we should probably tap the brakes before we get too hyped about UNC in 2013. But things have gone from "no hope" to "hope." That's something.

More: Bill C. previewing every ACC team And every other team, too

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-4 \| Adj. Record: 10-2 \| Final F/+ Rk: 46
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	Elon	62-0	W	32.2 - 8.1	W
8-Sep	at Wake Forest	27-28	L	25.2 - 44.2	L
15-Sep	at Louisville	34-39	L	41.2 - 33.8	W
22-Sep	East Carolina	27-6	W	29.4 - 13.8	W
29-Sep	Idaho	66-0	W	32.9 - 11.7	W
6-Oct	Virginia Tech	48-34	W	52.7 - 26.2	W
13-Oct	at Miami	18-14	W	25.9 - 18.1	W
20-Oct	at Duke	30-33	L	23.8 - 32.2	L
27-Oct	N.C. State	43-35	W	36.5 - 34.8	W
10-Nov	Georgia Tech	50-68	L	39.5 - 35.2	W
15-Nov	at Virginia	37-13	W	37.8 - 21.1	W
24-Nov	Maryland	45-38	W	42.7 - 39.4	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	40.6	8	25.7	53
Adj. Points Per Game	35.0	19	26.6	53

2. Three plays from 11-1 (and three from 5-7)

There's a lot you can use to spin UNC's 2012 season in either direction. The Heels lost to both Duke and Wake Forest, allowed 38 points to Maryland's no-QB offense, and basically came within three plays of finishing 5-7. Again, 46th is decent for a program undergoing NCAA sanctions and a coaching change, but it isn't just amazing overall.

At the same time, however, losing at Louisville by five points isn't exactly embarrassing. According to Adj. Points, UNC played good enough to beat an average team in 10 of 12 games. (The Georgia Tech result is a little odd in this regard; Tech was quite average, and the Heels lost by 18, but special teams and bad breaks made that game look worse than it was -- GT averaged 7.4 yards per play, UNC 7.2, which accounts for at least some of the oddity. UNC's offense was almost as good as its defense was bad.)

As the season progressed, UNC's offense improved dramatically, but not quite as quickly as the defense regressed.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 8 games): UNC 32.9, Opponent 23.5 (plus-9.4)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): UNC 39.1, Opponent 32.6 (plus-6.5)

This really does leave UNC in an interesting position in 2013. The offense that improved is without Bernard and a good chunk of its line this fall, while the defense that faded is rich with experience overall.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	14	26	22	31
RUSHING	33	42	43	41
PASSING	26	29	10	36
Standard Downs		22	20	24
Passing Downs		41	25	49
Redzone		91	89	90

Q1 Rk	25	1st Down Rk	31
Q2 Rk	39	2nd Down Rk	34
Q3 Rk	35	3rd Down Rk	77
Q4 Rk	59

3. Best against best

North Carolina's offense nearly broke the Covariance scale last season, saving some of its best performances for its best opponents and vice versa. Granted, the Heels didn't really face many truly good defenses, but good luck finding a pattern.

vs. Virginia Tech (22nd in Def. F/+): 7.1 yards per play
vs. Louisville (48th): 7.1
vs. Georgia Tech (58th): 7.2
vs. East Carolina (91st): 5.8 yards per play
vs. Miami (88th): 5.8
vs. Duke (116th): 5.8
vs. Wake Forest (77th): 5.2

This was a solid offense regardless, and perhaps it's encouraging that different players starred in the Heels' best performances (against VT, Louisville, and GT). Yes, Gio Bernard had a downright silly day versus Virginia Tech (23 carries, 262 yards), but Bernard was out for the Louisville game and Romar Morris managed 172 yards and two scores in nine touches in his absence. And against Georgia Tech, Bernard was held more-or-less in check (16 carries for 78 yards, plus, yes, a 78-yard reception), but then-freshman Quinshad Davis caught seven passes for 104 yards from Bryn Renner. Renner, Davis, Morris, and other pieces do return.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Bryn Renner

6'3, 225

Sr.

**** (5.9)

276

422

3,356

65.4%

2.5%

7.6

Marquise Williams

6'2, 215

So.

**** (5.8)

127

58.8%

0.0%

7.5

Mitch Trubisky

6'3, 210

Fr.

*** (5.6)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Giovani Bernard	RB				184	1,228	6.7	6.7	12	-0.6
A.J. Blue	RB	6'2, 215	Sr.	**** (5.8)	82	433	5.3	3.7	9	+2.2
Romar Morris	RB	5'10, 185	So.	*** (5.6)	69	386	5.6	4.3	2	+3.4
Bryn Renner	QB	6'3, 225	Sr.	**** (5.9)	50	111	2.2	2.3	1	-11.9
Marquise Williams	QB	6'2, 215	So.	**** (5.8)	29	186	6.4	4.2	3	+2.9
Kenny Owens	FB				9	19	2.1	0.7	0	-2.9
Travis Riley	RB	6'1, 215	So.	*** (5.5)	7	18	2.6	2.4	0	-2.0

4. If Gio had returned...

In just two seasons, Gio Bernard put up 2,481 rushing yards, 852 receiving yards, and 31 combined touchdowns from scrimmage. Plus he returned two punts for touchdowns in 2012, including one in the waning seconds against rival N.C. State. (That's seriously one of the most exciting plays you'll ever see. And they even accidentally got a two-point conversion afterward as well.) He was an all-conference back and a third-team AP All-American, and he still may have been underrated. Thanks to a redshirt year, he was already eligible for the NFL Draft, and it made perfect sense for him to declare.

But oh man, if he had returned for another year in Chapel Hill, this offense would have been something. Because there are some other exciting pieces afoot here.

Bernard's greatest value was in his versatility; yes, he averaged 6.7 yards per carry, but behind a good line he could have averaged 8.0. (UNC featured two all-conference linemen and did a decent enough job of keeping defenders out of the backfield, but short-yardage blocking was lacking, and opportunity rates were only decent considering iffy competition.) That he combined his nearly 1,300 rushing yards with 47 receptions (at 8.5 yards per target, higher than the top two wideouts) was truly special and tough to replace.

A.J. Blue and Romar Morris both showed a decent ability to follow blocks, but they weren't nearly as explosive, and UNC will almost certainly suffer a bit more on the ground because of that. That all-conference guard Jonathan Cooper and tackles Travis Bond and Brennan Williams are gone will only add to that.

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2013
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Yds/
Target

Target
Rate

%SD

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Quinshad Davis

6'4, 205

So.

**** (5.8)

776

63.5%

8.1

22.7%

54.2%

8.0

110.7

Erik Highsmith

596

65.9%

7.3

19.4%

68.3%

6.9

85.0

Eric Ebron

6'4, 245

Jr.

*** (5.7)

630

54.8%

8.6

17.3%

45.2%

8.7

89.9

Giovani Bernard

483

82.5%

8.5

13.5%

57.9%

8.5

68.9

Sean Tapley

6'1, 185

Jr.

*** (5.7)

361

68.4%

9.5

9.0%

65.8%

9.1

51.5

Jack Tabb

6'3, 240

Jr.

*** (5.6)

144

70.6%

8.5

4.0%

76.5%

9.6

20.5

Romar Morris

5'10, 185

So.

*** (5.6)

204

75.0%

12.8

3.8%

56.3%

13.3

29.1

A.J. Blue

6'2, 215

Sr.

**** (5.8)

64.3%

5.7

3.3%

57.1%

5.7

11.4

Mark McNeill

6'4, 215

Jr.

90.9%

6.5

2.6%

90.9%

8.3

10.1

Nic Platt

6'2, 205

Jr.

100.0%

9.2

1.2%

100.0%

5.6

6.6

Jheranie Boyd

80.0%

8.8

1.2%

100.0%

5.3

6.3

Kendrick Singleton

6'2, 200

So.

*** (5.6)

T.J. Thorpe

6'0, 200

So.

**** (5.8)

Jordan Darty

5'11, 175

Jr.

Jordan Fieulleteau

6'3, 205

Fr.

*** (5.5)

5. Quinshad Davis set a bad example

As fans, we tend to assume immediate greatness for our star recruits. And it actually works out just enough that we continue to assume it. But for every Stefon Diggs (the No. 2 receiver in the 2012 class according to Rivals.com), there are a couple of Dorial Green-Beckhams (No. 1) or Nelson Agholors (No. 3), guys who have incredible star potential but don't necessarily become stars from the first game. For every Amari Cooper (No. 6), there are a few Cayleb Joneses (No. 5) or Durron Neals (No. 9). And for every Quinshad Davis (No. 34), there are quite a few Amara Darbohs (No. 30), Derrick Woodses (No. 31), Keny Lawlers (No. 33), Jody Fullers (No. 37), and Marvin Bracies (No. 39).

None of the above players are busts yet by any means, but four-star freshmen aren't supposed to just become the No. 1 receiver for a top-30 passing game right out of the box. Davis did. The Gaffney, South Carolina, product was an instant success, giving Bryn Renner a big possession target to go alongside tight end Eric Ebron, then-senior Erik Highsmith, and some good receiving running backs. And he was perhaps the primary reason for UNC's late offensive explosion. He had already put together a pretty decent freshman campaign, but he went nuclear in November, catching seven passes for 104 yards versus Georgia Tech, 16 (!) for 178 versus Virginia, and nine for 135 and two scores versus Maryland. UNC might not be able to trust its running game as much, but it was already weaker than the passing game. And as long as Renner isn't throwing every pass on second-and-11 or third-and-9, there's no reason to think UNC won't once again have at least a top-30 passing game.

Besides Davis, you've got Ebron, a sleeper Mackey Award candidate who averaged more yards per target than Davis, Highsmith, or even Bernard. You've got Sean Tapley, who as a sophomore was better than Davis in terms of both catch rate and yards per catch. You've got another potentially strong pass catcher out of the backfield in Morris, you've got a decent backup tight end in Jack Tabb, and you've got four-star sophomore T.J. Thorpe, who might actually be healthy for the first time (well, maybe). That's not bad at all.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	105.4	3.08	3.40	42.0%	72.3%	16.1%	198.3	1.5%	4.1%
Rank	45	47	48	31	41	19	15	8	23

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Jonathan Cooper	LG				47 career starts; 2012 1st All-ACC
James Hurst	LT	6'7, 305	Sr.	**** (6.0)	36 career starts; 2012 1st All-ACC
Travis Bond	RT				29 career starts
Brennan Williams	RT				22 career starts
Russell Bodine	C	6'4, 310	Jr.	*** (5.7)	14 career starts
Landon Turner	RG	6'4, 320	So.	**** (5.8)	4 career starts
Kiaro Holts	RT	6'4, 295	So.	**** (5.8)	1 career start
Peyton Jenest	LG
David Collins	LG	6'8, 310	Sr.	*** (5.7)
Nick Appel	LT	6'6, 310	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Jarrod James	C	6'3, 290	So.	**** (5.8)
J.J. Patterson	RG	6'4, 310	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Caleb Peterson	LG	6'5, 300	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Jon Heck	LT	6'6, 300	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
John Ferranto	RT	6'5, 290	RSFr.	** (5.4)

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	57	84	74	86
RUSHING	41	94	81	105
PASSING	83	71	65	78
Standard Downs		62	52	73
Passing Downs		103	108	102
Redzone		52	52	59

Q1 Rk	106	1st Down Rk	59
Q2 Rk	120	2nd Down Rk	81
Q3 Rk	13	3rd Down Rk	87
Q4 Rk	10

6. Get off the field (on PDs)

Speaking of bad examples, TCU has made the 4-2-5 defense look a little bit too easy. TCU head coach Gary Patterson literally wrote the book on the 4-2-5 and has made it a pretty trendy thing in recent years. If you have the right parts, the 4-2-5 can react and swarm with incredible effectiveness. But if you don't, you can get pushed around on standard downs and struggle to develop enough of a pass rush to get off the field on passing downs; you have to react and swarm for three-yard gains, not eight-yard gains. And while UNC defensive coordinator Dan Disch certainly saw success with this alignment in Fedora's last year at Southern Miss (with a brilliant front four, the Golden Eagles ranked 19th in Def. F/+), he didn't necessarily find the pieces he needed in his first year in Chapel Hill, especially as the season progressed and the secondary (in particular) got thinner.

A defense that allowed a combined 422 yards versus ECU and Idaho (impressive even considering the competition) faltered to say the least. The Heels allowed 467 passing yards to N.C. State and 380 rushing yards to Georgia Tech, then allowed three long touchdown drives in the first half against a Maryland team that was starting a true freshman linebacker at quarterback. The D made enough stops for the Heels to indeed win seven of their final nine games but allowed a combined 1,098 yards in losses to Duke and Georgia Tech.

The biggest problem this defense had was in getting off the field. UNC was at least mediocre on standard downs, ranking 62nd overall; but the Heels were an egregious 103rd on passing downs. There was no blitz, and opponents knew they had no reason to fear sitting in the pocket and picking the defense apart on second- or third-and-long.

If you've got a stout front four, one that can generate pressure without the need of blitzing, then your 4-2-5 will click (any defense will, actually). But if middle linebacker Kevin Reddick or tackle Sly Williams weren't bringing down the quarterback, it's pretty to assume nobody was. Those two are gone now.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96.7	2.70	3.36	37.7%	70.3%	21.3%	102.0	5.8%	6.0%
Rank	71	29	76	50	81	37	59	27	71

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dion Guy	BANDIT				12	39.5	5.4%	3.5	1	1	1	0	0
Sylvester Williams	DT				12	31.5	4.3%	13.5	6	0	0	0	0
Kareem Martin	DE	6'6, 265	Sr.	*** (5.7)	12	29.5	4.1%	15.5	4	0	3	1	1
*Shakeel Rashad*	*BANDIT*	*6'2, 245*	*So.*	*** (5.7)	11	*15.5*	*2.1%*	*3.5*	*1.5*	1	2	1	0
Shawn Underwood	DT	6'1, 305	Jr.	*** (5.5)	11	15.5	2.1%	2.5	0	0	0	0	1
Tim Jackson	NT	6'5, 285	Sr.	*** (5.5)	10	13.5	1.9%	4	1	0	0	0	0
Devonte Brown	NT	6'3, 280	Jr.	**** (5.8)	10	11.0	1.5%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Ethan Farmer	DT	6'3, 295	Jr.	*** (5.7)	12	6.5	0.9%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jessie Rogers	DE	6'4, 260	So.	*** (5.5)	12	6.0	0.8%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Justin Thomason	DT	6'4, 265	So.	*** (5.5)	5	4.5	0.6%	2	2	0	0	0	0
Norkeithus Otis	BANDIT	6'1, 240	Jr.	**** (5.8)	10	2.5	0.3%	1	1	0	0	1	0
Junior Gnonkonde	BANDIT	6'4, 240	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Greg Webb	DT	6'2, 290	Fr.	**** (5.8)

7. More Bandit, please

The 4-2-5 relies on hybrids galore. The defense is incredibly multiple, but one of the key positions is the BANDIT position, one that serves as a defensive end/OLB. The Bandit is a playmaker's playmaker, but UNC got almost no plays out of the position last season. Dion Guy was a decent tackler, but let's put it this way: In 2011, Southern Miss Bandit Jamie Collins had 19.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks. Guy had 3.5 and one in 2012.

Guy wasn't recruited to be a Bandit, so it's not really his fault, but he was certainly replaceable … if there's anybody who can replace him, anyway. Shakeel Rashad, who ended up with as many TFLs as Guy and more sacks in minimal playing time, was intriguing, but he's out for the season with a knee injury. That leaves former four-star recruit Norkeithus Otis (the post-spring first-stringer), who did log a sack-and-strip as one his 2.5 tackles. And perhaps Junior Gnonkonde can step up.

The starting Bandit, whoever it is, is probably the most important player on the UNC defense; if he delivers quality Bandit play, everything else falls into place.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kevin Reddick	MIKE				12	67.0	9.2%	18.5	6.5	0	6	2	0
Tommy Heffernan	WILL	6'1, 215	Jr.	NR	11	55.5	7.6%	8.5	3	0	2	1	0
Travis Hughes	WILL	6'2, 225	Jr.	**** (5.8)	12	30.0	4.1%	1.5	0	0	1	2	2
Darius Lipford (2011)	LB	6'3, 245	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	29.5	4.0%	1.5	0	0	4	0	0
Jeff Schoettmer	MIKE	6'1, 220	So.	NR	12	20.0	2.8%	2	1	0	0	0	1
Curtis Campbell	LB				12	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dan Mastromatteo	MIKE	6'2, 230	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Nathan Staub	MIKE	6'2, 240	RSFr.	*** (5.5)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tre Boston	FS	6'1, 205	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	67.5	9.3%	1	0	4	6	0	0
Jabari Price	CB	6'0, 200	Sr.	*** (5.6)	11	63.0	8.7%	4	1	1	9	1	0
Tim Scott	CB	5'11, 190	Jr.	*** (5.7)	12	42.0	5.8%	5.5	0	4	9	0	0
Darien Rankin	FS	5'11, 200	So.	*** (5.6)	11	36.5	5.0%	1	0	3	2	0	0
Gene Robinson	RAM				11	35.0	4.8%	3	0	0	1	0	1
Pete Mangum	RAM	6'0, 195	So.	NR	12	26.5	3.7%	2	0	0	0	0	1
Terry Shankle	CB	5'11, 190	Sr.	**** (5.8)	9	22.5	3.1%	0	0	1	5	1	0
*Sam Smiley*	SS	*5'11, 185*	*So.*	** (5.3)	7	*19.0*	*2.6%*	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alex Dixon	CB	6'0, 185	So.	*** (5.7)	12	12.0	1.7%	0	0	0	0	1	1
Kameron Jackson	FS	5'11, 190	So.	*** (5.5)	7	10.0	1.4%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Malik Simmons	CB	5'11, 190	So.	*** (5.6)	11	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	1
T.J. Jiles	CB	5'11, 165	So.	*** (5.6)	11	4.0	0.6%	1	0	1	2	0	0
Tim Furr	DB	5'10, 180	Jr.	NR	2	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Mangum	RAM	6'0, 195	So.	NR	3	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Ellerbe	RAM	6'0, 220	Jr.	*** (5.5)
Clint Heaven	S	6'0, 225	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Joe Jackson	RAM	6'2, 210	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Brian Walker	CB	5'11, 175	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Dominique Green	SS	5'11, 185	Fr.	NR

8. Depth is not an issue

Sam Smiley has also been lost for the season with injury, but in all, 10 of the 12 DBs who made at least 4.0 tackles last year are back, including an aggressive pair of corners in Jabari Price and Tim Scott. The Ram position, another new one in the 4-2-5 (think hybrid safety/OLB), was also mostly devoid of playmaking in 2012 -- Gene Robinson and Pete Mangum combined for just five tackles for loss and one pass defensed, worse than Scott in both categories.

Former safety Brandon Ellerbe joins the mix at Ram, as does redshirt freshman Joe Jackson. But as with the Bandit position, there is no obvious reason to assume much improvement aside from the general "the second year in a new scheme is smoother than the first." With Price, Scott, and free safety Tre Boston leading the way, this experienced unit should at least be solid. But since the pass rush cannot assume improvement overall, the secondary will have to be downright good to get off the field in a more timely fashion.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tommy Hibbard	5'10, 190	Jr.	50	43.0	3	10	19	58.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Casey Barth			72	61.2	19	26.4%
Thomas Moore	5'10, 200	Jr.	19	57.2	1	5.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Casey Barth			44-44	10-12	83.3%	5-7	71.4%
Thomas Moore	5'10, 200	Jr.	12-12	2-2	100.0%	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Sean Tapley	KR	6'1, 185	Jr.	31	23.4	1
Romar Morris	KR	5'10, 185	So.	17	23.5	0
Giovani Bernard	PR			16	16.4	2
Roy Smith	PR	5'9, 170	Jr.	12	13.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	44
Net Punting	11
Net Kickoffs	103
Touchback Pct	102
Field Goal Pct	37
Kick Returns Avg	33
Punt Returns Avg	11

9. Well, if you have to lose Gio…

Roy Smith and his nearly 14 yards per punt return might do. Now, about those kickoffs...

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
29-Aug	at South Carolina	14
7-Sep	Middle Tennessee	99
21-Sep	at Georgia Tech	32
28-Sep	East Carolina	74
5-Oct	at Virginia Tech	23
17-Oct	Miami	25
26-Oct	Boston College	69
2-Nov	at N.C. State	61
9-Nov	Virginia	71
16-Nov	at Pittsburgh	35
23-Nov	Old Dominion	NR
30-Nov	Duke	88

Five-Year F/+ Rk	31
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	44
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+7 / +8.1
TO Luck/Game	-0.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (6, 9)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-3.2

10. Wins in the back half

There is indeed optimism in Chapel Hill, but I'll say this: if there is still optimism after six games, then this season is shaping up to be an all-timer. With trips to South Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech followed by a visit from Miami in the first half of the slate, UNC will have to prove its bona fides from the opening kickoff. It will take a top-40 team to start better than about 3-3, and it might take a top-30 team to start even 4-2.

There are certainly wins on the back end (home games against Virginia, Old Dominion and Duke in November are a cushy), but even if UNC is pretty good, this season might take on a disappointing tone by August 30.