2013 Virginia Tech football's 10 things to know: Hokies can be great again ... in 2014

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Virginia Tech is going to be pretty good in 2014

In 2008, Virginia Tech sank to 32nd in the F/+ rankings after ranking 11th and eighth the two previous years. The Hokies still went 10-4 and still won a weak ACC despite losses to Boston College, Florida State, and Miami (and, out of conference, East Carolina); but the product itself was regressing. The Hokies scored almost 100 fewer points in 2008 than in 2007 and, despite a relatively weak ACC, allowed more, too. It was easy to assert that head coach Frank Beamer's best days were behind him. He had made the Hokies matter, and his squad was still good enough for a shaky ACC, but Tech on a national level did not matter as much as it once did.

In 2009, Tech ranked fifth in the F/+ rankings. In 2010, 10th. Tech went 21-6 in those two years, not only continuing to live in the ACC's top tier but also putting together a legitimately strong, near-elite product.

Beamer knows bounce-backs. He's pulled them off time and time again. In his sixth year in Blacksburg, Beamer's Hokies fell to 2-8-1; in 1993, they went 9-3. After two 10-win seasons (1995-96), Tech fell to 7-5 in 1997, then won 30 games in three years. Eight wins in 2001 and 2003, 10 in 2002 and 2004. He had already been proclaimed past his prime two or three times when he ripped off a streak of eight consecutive 10- or 11-win seasons. Tech has not been a true national title contender for a while, but few teams pull that off. Living in the suburbs of Elite City, with occasional visits into town, isn't bad for a program that had managed just two top-20 finishes ever before Beamer's ninth season.

That said, Tech was just not very good in 2012. The symptoms were basically the same in 2012 as in 2008 -- an offense that lost the plot, a strangely poor special teams unit, and a defense that was still quite good but not elite -- but the edges were a little duller last fall, the talent a little more difficult to spot.

There is still some talent in Blacksburg, but there might be one more year of tumbling before we get a good glimpse of it. The offense lost its direction last year, and it is now run by a coach who was the coordinator of a directionless offense last year. The defense should hold steady in the nearly elite fringes but probably won't improve enough to drag the offense back toward the suburbs.

There's hope. The offensive line will be laden with seniors next year. The corps of running backs should stabilize. And while there are quite a few senior studs on defense, there is also a wealth of young, fun talent that should be able to hold its own. If Beamer has another bounce-back (a Beamer, if you will) in him, you'll see it unfold in 2014-15. Just don't expect much improvement this year.

2. Losing your edge

I'm pretty sure I mean everything I say above. (That's definitely a sentence you want to read in a preview about your team, isn't it?) But ... Tech has tumbled in rather linear fashion for three straight years now. That is disconcerting. Since 2009's surge to fifth, Tech has ranked 10th, 24th, and 43rd. The offense ranked seventh in 2010, 38th in 2011, and 75th in 2012. Even the defense hasn't crept above 21st since 2009. And special teams, first in 2010, was 68th in 2011 and 62nd in 2012.

Everything Frank Beamer's program has been known for has lost its edge in recent years. Again, he could get it back starting next year. But I'm only reasonably confident in saying that. Three years is a trend.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 43
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
3-Sep	Georgia Tech	20-17	W	19.2 - 14.0	W
8-Sep	Austin Peay	42-7	W	24.5 - 20.1	W
15-Sep	at Pittsburgh	17-35	L	33.2 - 32.3	W
22-Sep	Bowling Green	37-0	W	40.7 - 13.1	W
29-Sep	vs. Cincinnati	24-27	L	32.8 - 23.8	W
6-Oct	at North Carolina	34-48	L	26.4 - 32.0	L
13-Oct	Duke	41-20	W	32.9 - 21.1	W
20-Oct	at Clemson	17-38	L	25.1 - 18.7	W
1-Nov	at Miami	12-30	L	20.8 - 21.1	L
8-Nov	Florida State	22-28	L	43.9 - 15.9	W
17-Nov	at Boston College	30-23	W	21.2 - 19.9	W
24-Nov	Virginia	17-14	W	17.2 - 11.4	W
28-Dec	vs. Rutgers	13-10	W	11.1 - 2.5	W

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	25.1	85	22.8	32
Adj. Points Per Game	26.8	74	18.9	8

3. This wasn't very fun

There were points here and there. UNC dragged Virginia Tech, kicking and screaming, into an offensive shootout (UNC was good at that), and the Tech offense looked fine against Duke and Florida State. But all in all, if you like points and yards, you didn't much enjoy VT games last fall. (And you really didn't enjoy the bowl game.)

On a play-for-play basis, Tech's defense was not only good last year, it got significantly better in the season's second half.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 6 games): VT 29.5, Opponent 22.6 (plus-6.9)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 7 games): VT 24.6, Opponent 15.8 (plus-8.8)

After UNC laid 533 yards and 48 points on the Hokies, VT battened down the hatches -- Duke averaged 4.6 yards per play, Clemson averaged 4.5, Florida State averaged 4.6, Boston College averaged 3.9, Virginia averaged 3.9, and Rutgers averaged a ghastly 2.5. Only Miami was able to move the ball reliably on Tech after October 6.

Of course, this would have meant something if Tech's own offense hadn't dried up. If you liked tight, competitive games, you might have really enjoyed Tech's stretch run. If you like offense, you hated it.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	83	91	106	83
RUSHING	81	96	91	101
PASSING	65	83	104	63
Standard Downs		90	96	85
Passing Downs		91	101	88
Redzone		78	76	77

Q1 Rk	117	1st Down Rk	90
Q2 Rk	84	2nd Down Rk	89
Q3 Rk	62	3rd Down Rk	37
Q4 Rk	29

4. What's Loeffler's plan?

Scot Loeffler's only 38 years old. It feels like he's been a former-NFL-assistant-and-QB-guru type for a lot longer, but his career has basically lasted about a decade. He was Lloyd Carr's QB coach at Michigan from 2002-07, spent one year in the same spot with the Detroit Lions, spent two years at Florida, spent one year as Steve Addazio's offensive coordinator at Temple, and spent last year as part of Gene Chizik's last-ditch, gypsy staff at Auburn.

It's easy to blame the O.C. for an offense's failures, but I think a lot of people are giving (or should give) Loeffler a pass for last year's Auburn stink; Chizik seemed to have no idea what kind of offense he wanted, and Auburn didn't have a competent non-freshman at quarterback. He got somewhere with freshman Jonathan Wallace and an extremely run-heavy attack near the end of the season, but it didn't really matter.

But if we are going to pin some of Auburn's No. 111 Off. F/+ ranking on Loeffler, we also have to give him credit for the simple fact that Temple's offense surged from 78th to 45th under Loeffler in 2011, then dropped right back to 76th without him.

We don't really know what Loeffler's plan is in Blacksburg. At neither Temple nor Auburn did he have any semblance of a passing game, but that could have simply been because of the personnel on hand. He was forced to run a lot, so he did. But running a lot is probably the way to go at Tech, too. Tech was good at basically nothing in 2012. With a freshman running back looking for holes behind an underdeveloped, shaky offensive line, the running game disappeared, leaving quarterback Logan Thomas to throw a ton of passes under pressure on second- or third-and-long. A pair of outstanding receivers (Marcus Davis and Corey Fuller) bailed him out a few times, but not nearly enough. Thomas' stats plummeted after he was unfairly given some Heisman hype heading into the season, and despite some outstanding running ability (and an absurdly large frame), he had to battle for every single rushing yard. In all, his per-attempt passing average fell from 7.0 to 6.2, his interception rate went from 2.6 percent to 3.7, and Tech's offense fell from 38th in Off. F/+ to 73rd.

Loeffler probably has no choice but to lean on the run, for reasons stated above and below, but it will be interesting to see how he utilizes Thomas in the passing game. Does he get him out of the pocket as much as possible? Does he attempt to turn Thomas into something of a pro-style, pocket-based guy? I assume the former, but I don't really know.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2013 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp Rate

TD

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Logan Thomas

6'6, 254

Sr.

**** (6.0)

220

429

2,976

51.3%

18

16

26

5.7%

6.2

Mark Leal

6'1, 217

Jr.

*** (5.6)

4

6

26

66.7%

0

0

0

0.0%

4.3

Brenden Motley

6'4, 216

RSFr.

*** (5.5)

Bucky Hodges

6'6, 235

Fr.

**** (5.8)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Logan Thomas	QB	6'6, 254	Sr.	**** (6.0)	148	683	4.6	4.5	9	-2.6
J.C. Coleman	RB	5'7, 191	So.	**** (5.9)	109	494	4.5	6.0	2	-1.8
Michael Holmes	RB				70	280	4.0	4.4	4	-3.5
Tony Gregory	RB	6'0, 187	Sr.	*** (5.7)	64	299	4.7	4.7	1	-2.7
Martin Scales	RB				52	187	3.6	3.0	2	-6.0
Dyrell Roberts	FL				10	71	7.1	8.9	0	+1.2
Demitri Knowles	FL	6'1, 180	So.	*** (5.5)	7	24	3.4	3.9	0	-0.7
Marcus Davis	SE				5	72	14.4	7.8	0	+4.4
Joel Caleb	RB	6'2, 205	RSFr.	**** (5.9)
Trey Edmunds	RB	6'1, 216	RSFr.	**** (5.8)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Marcus Davis	SE				98	51	953	52.0%	9.7	24.1%	49.0%	9.9	103.1
Corey Fuller	SE				73	43	815	58.9%	11.2	17.9%	38.4%	10.2	88.1
Dyrell Roberts	FL				61	33	398	54.1%	6.5	15.0%	62.3%	6.5	43.0
D.J. Coles (2011)	SE	6'4, 234	Sr.	**** (5.9)	50	36	480	72.0%	9.6	12.9%	48.0%	N/A	N/A
Demitri Knowles	FL	6'1, 180	So.	*** (5.5)	39	19	240	48.7%	6.2	9.6%	64.1%	6.1	26.0
J.C. Coleman	RB	5'7, 191	So.	**** (5.9)	30	21	132	70.0%	4.4	7.4%	56.7%	4.2	14.3
Ryan Malleck	TE	6'4, 249	Jr.	*** (5.5)	29	17	174	58.6%	6.0	7.1%	58.6%	5.9	18.8
Randall Dunn	TE				25	12	128	48.0%	5.1	6.1%	64.0%	5.1	13.8
Joey Phillips	FB				13	5	18	38.5%	1.4	3.2%	76.9%	1.8	1.9
Tony Gregory	RB	6'0, 187	Sr.	*** (5.7)	12	7	60	58.3%	5.0	2.9%	41.7%	3.8	6.5
Michael Holmes	RB				8	5	23	62.5%	2.9	2.0%	50.0%	3.1	2.5
Eric Martin	TE				6	3	16	50.0%	2.7	1.5%	66.7%	2.4	1.7
Zack McCray	TE	6'4, 247	Jr.	**** (5.9)
Chris Mangus	FL	6'0, 184	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Charley Meyer	FL	6'1, 215	RSFr.	NR
Carlis Parker	SE	6'3, 185	Fr.	*** (5.6)

5. Where did the receivers go?

Fourteen Virginia Tech players were targeted by at least two passes in 2012; four return. That's staggering. Seventy-three percent of Tech's targets are gone, and while only two receivers were even slightly successful last year (which means the losses aren't quite as heavy as it seems), somebody's still going to have to catch passes in 2013. Who's it going to be?

We know D.J. Coles will be involved. The senior erupted for seven catches and 116 yards in the ACC title game loss to Clemson in 2011 but battled knee issues all of last season and redshirted. He is both big and explosive, but conditioning is evidently still an issue, and he is far from certain to last 12-plus games this year.

We know Demitri Knowles will be involved. A speedy guy, Knowles was neither explosive nor efficient last year, but he was young. He's struggled with drops this fall, but he's got potential.

And I just basically listed all of the experienced wideouts. The good news is, aside from Coles this is a very young unit, one that should be expected to improve incrementally in the future. But for now, yikes.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	87.7	2.60	1.97	35.7%	59.2%	22.2%	94.6	4.6%	6.1%
Rank	106	106	121	97	103	105	68	60	54

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Andrew Miller	RG	6'4, 296	Sr.	*** (5.7)	21 career starts
Nick Becton	LT				13 career starts
Vinston Painter	RT				13 career starts
David Wang	C	6'2, 299	Jr.	*** (5.7)	10 career starts
Michael Via	RG				9 career starts
Brent Benedict	LG	6'5, 292	Jr.	**** (5.9)	6 career starts
Caleb Farris	LG	6'3, 308	Jr.	*** (5.7)	5 career starts
Matt Arkema	C	6'3, 296	Jr.	*** (5.7)	2 career starts
Laurence Gibson	LT	6'6, 290	Jr.	**** (6.0)
Mark Shuman	RT	6'7, 295	Jr.	**** (5.8)
Marcus Mapp	RG	6'4, 295	So.	NR
Augie Conte	RT	6'6, 302	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Jonathan McLaughlin	LT	6'5, 313	Fr.	*** (5.6)
Parker Osterloh	LT	6'8, 318	Fr.	*** (5.5)
Kyle Chung	LG	6'3, 258	Fr.	*** (5.5)

6. Stumbling in the trenches

In 2011, Virginia Tech's line ranked an awful 102nd in Adj. Line Yards, but the Hokies still managed to rank 51st in Rushing S&P+ because of explosive tailback David Wilson. With Wilson gone, a grab bag of freshman J.C. Coleman, redshirt freshman Michael Holmes, Tony Gregory and Martin Scales took over, and while Coleman showed some explosiveness, none of these backs were all that reliable or capable of creating something out of nothing. Meanwhile, the line had to replace four starters and dropped to 106th in Adj. Line Yards.

With the passing game starting over, at least the running game will have more experience on its side. The line is still reasonably young (five players with starting experience have combined for just 44 career starts, almost half of which come from center-turned-guard Andrew Miller), but it has nowhere to go but up. And I do think that Coleman is going to be pretty good. The dismissal of Holmes obviously dings the depth, but Coleman and big redshirt freshman Trey Edmunds could form a nice thunder-and-lightning combination. With the Big Thunder himself, Logan Thomas, also returning, Tech could have a diverse, fun running game if the line gets its act together. But that's a significant "if."

In 2014, the line will be dominated by seniors, and Coleman, Edmunds, and basically everybody but Thomas will return. But in 2013, development could still be an issue.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	18	8	4	14
RUSHING	30	15	12	20
PASSING	24	9	3	12
Standard Downs		11	6	16
Passing Downs		5	3	11
Redzone		8	2	15

Q1 Rk	9	1st Down Rk	17
Q2 Rk	15	2nd Down Rk	3
Q3 Rk	10	3rd Down Rk	5
Q4 Rk	14

7. This is still a damn good D

We can talk about how Bud Foster, Beamer's long-serving defensive architect and 4-4 innovator, has lost his edge, or how his squad isn't quite as adept at handling the modern spread offense as it was at defending previous, more archaic attacks. There are facts on our side if we want to do that. But without major turnovers luck or a boatload of blue-chip talent, nobody is defending the spread all that well right now. And in 2012, barring a couple of nightmare games (most vivid: UNC), Tech's defense was once again strong. And despite fielding a unit of mostly underclassmen, it got much, much stronger over the last half of the season. Picking nits is fine, but Foster is still a strong defensive coordinator, and this is still a strong defense.

The line in particular should be fun to watch this fall; all seven linemen who logged more than 10.0 tackles last year are back, and potential studs like true freshman Wyatt Teller or redshirt freshman Ken Ekanem could enter the mix. (Then again, Teller might require a bit of development in terms of technique.)

Barring developmental issues on the line, the defense should remain perfectly strong beyond 2013 as well. The front four is indeed laden with seniors, but from top to bottom the D is stocked with highly touted, athletic freshmen and redshirt freshmen.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	112.4	2.53	2.79	33.7%	60.0%	24.1%	138.1	6.2%	7.7%
Rank	19	15	24	14	19	15	14	21	44

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
James Gayle	DE	6'4, 255	Sr.	*** (5.7)	13	35.0	4.9%	11	5	0	1	0	0
Derrick Hopkins	DT	6'0, 311	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13	33.5	4.7%	10	3.5	0	1	1	0
Luther Maddy	DT	6'1, 296	Jr.	** (5.4)	13	25.0	3.5%	6.5	4	0	0	0	1
Tyrel Wilson	DE	6'2, 230	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13	23.5	3.3%	7	4.5	0	0	1	1
J.R. Collins	DE	6'2, 248	Sr.	*** (5.7)	13	20.0	2.8%	6	1.5	0	0	0	0
Corey Marshall	DT	6'1, 257	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13	18.0	2.5%	3	1.5	0	1	0	0
Dadi Nicolas	DE	6'3, 224	So.	NR	10	14.0	2.0%	3.5	2	0	1	1	1
Antoine Hopkins	DT				13	10.0	1.4%	3.5	0	0	3	0	0
Matt Roth	DE	6'3, 239	So.	*** (5.7)	13	5.0	0.7%	1	1	0	0	1	0
Kris Harley	DT	6'0, 283	So.	**** (5.8)	10	4.5	0.6%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Ken Ekanem	DE	6'3, 242	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Nigel Williams	DT	6'2, 283	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Alston Smith	DT	6'2, 281	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Wyatt Teller	DE	6'5, 271	Fr.	**** (6.0)
Woody Baron	DT	6'1, 264	Fr.	*** (5.6)
Seth Dooley	DE	6'5, 245	Fr.	*** (5.5)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jack Tyler	ILB	6'1, 230	Sr.	NR	13	87.0	12.1%	13	2.5	0	3	0	0
Bruce Taylor	ILB				12	61.0	8.5%	10.5	5.5	0	5	1	0
Alonzo Tweedy	OLB				13	31.0	4.3%	6	3	0	0	0	0
Ronny Vandyke	OLB	6'3, 218	So.	**** (5.8)	13	19.0	2.6%	2	0	0	0	1	0
Josh Trimble	OLB	6'0, 216	So.	NR	11	12.0	1.7%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Chase Williams	ILB	6'2, 220	Jr.	*** (5.7)	13	4.5	0.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Tariq Edwards	ILB	6'2, 234	Sr.	*** (5.6)	7	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Derek DiNardo	OLB	6'0, 216	Jr.	NR	13	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Deon Clarke	ILB	6'2, 210	RSFr.	**** (5.8)	3	0.5	0.1%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Devin Vandyke	ILB	6'0, 218	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Dahman McKinnon	ILB	6'1, 207	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Andrew Motuapuaka	LB	5'11, 224	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kyshoen Jarrett	ROV	5'11, 198	Jr.	**** (5.8)	13	70.5	9.8%	4.5	0	0	4	1	0
Detrick Bonner	FS	6'0, 194	Jr.	*** (5.5)	13	50.5	7.0%	3	1	1	10	0	1
Kyle Fuller	CB	6'0, 194	Sr.	*** (5.5)	13	48.0	6.7%	3	0	2	5	1	0
Antone Exum	CB	6'1, 220	Sr.	*** (5.7)	13	41.5	5.8%	1.5	0	5	16	2	1
Michael Cole	ROV				10	32.5	4.5%	1	0	2	1	0	1
Jeron Gouveia-Winslow	ROV				12	20.0	2.8%	1.5	0	0	0	1	0
Donaldven Manning	CB				8	4.0	0.6%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Desmond Frye	ROV	6'2, 188	So.	*** (5.5)	13	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Donovan Riley	CB	5'11, 204	So.	*** (5.5)	12	3.0	0.4%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Der'Woun Greene	FS	5'10, 180	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Kendall Fuller	CB	5'11, 193	Fr.	***** (6.1)
Brandon Facyson	CB	6'2, 188	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Anthony Shegog	ROV	6'1, 216	Fr.	*** (5.5)
Chuck Clark	FS	6'0, 197	Fr.	*** (5.5)

8. Can the secondary hold on?

The linebacking corps is starting over a bit after the departures of Bruce Taylor and Alonzo Tweedy. Meanwhile, star corner Antone Exum is out for at least a couple more months after tearing his ACL in January. Depth is perilous, but if the Hokies avoid any major injuries, the back seven could still be pretty interesting. Sophomore Ronny Vandyke (who recently suffered a shoulder injury) looks like a quality Tweedy replacement, Kyshoen Jarrett is an emerging stud at Foster's Rover position, and the Fuller brothers -- senior Kyle and blue-chip freshman Kendall -- have looked good this fall.

The key, though, really is depth. There's just not much of it left. And while most of the reactions to Exum's injury and everything else have been in regard to the Alabama game (Tech doesn't have anybody capable of handling Amari Cooper!) … Tech's not going to beat Alabama anyway. And nobody can handle Amari Cooper anyway. Tech's schedule starts in earnest on September 14, and if the back seven of the 4-4 is as healthy as possible (and getting healthier when Exum returns), it can overcome a decent amount of youth.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
A.J. Hughes	6'1, 199	So.	79	40.6	3	18	22	50.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Brooks Abbott			39	61.5	9	23.1%
Michael Branthover	5'9, 184	Jr.	20	59.7	8	40.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Cody Journell	6'0, 183	Sr.	34-36	14-15	93.3%	6-10	60.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Demitri Knowles	KR	6'1, 180	So.	21	28.3	1
J.C. Coleman	KR	5'7, 191	So.	19	21.6	0
Kyshoen Jarrett	PR	5'11, 198	Jr.	18	13.9	1
Michael Holmes	PR			14	7.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	62
Net Punting	79
Net Kickoffs	98
Touchback Pct	89
Field Goal Pct	27
Kick Returns Avg	20
Punt Returns Avg	38

9. Beamer vs. BeamerBall

For the second straight year, the special teams unit, once an incredible strength for Virginia Tech, was distinctly average. Returns were good and should be again with Demitri Knowles and Kyshoen Jarrett returning kicks and punts, respectively; meanwhile, Cody Journell was perfectly fine on kicks under 40 yards. But punting and kickoffs were mediocre (or worse), and Tech blocked just a single kick last year. It hasn't been that long since Tech had the best special teams unit in the country, but the Hokies have been distinctly average in this regard of late.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	vs. Alabama	1
7-Sep	Western Carolina	NR
14-Sep	at East Carolina	74
21-Sep	Marshall	82
26-Sep	at Georgia Tech	32
5-Oct	North Carolina	29
12-Oct	Pittsburgh	35
26-Oct	Duke	88
2-Nov	at Boston College	69
9-Nov	at Miami	25
16-Nov	Maryland	83
30-Nov	at Virginia	71

Five-Year F/+ Rk	16
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	21
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-5 / -7.6
TO Luck/Game	1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (4, 9)
Yds/Pt Margin**	+0.4

10. A 2012 facsimile

I do think the running game is going to improve, and I love the front four on defense. I think the young secondary should at least mostly hold up (with some glitches), and I don't see why the defense should rank outside the top 25 when all is said and done. But I also don't even slightly trust the passing game, and I don't see the defense ranking ABOVE about 15th or 20th.

In other words, I once again see a mediocre-at-best offense and a good (but not good enough to offset the offense) defense taking the field, and I once again see Virginia Tech struggling to rank in the top 40 overall.

Beamer has recruited pretty well over these past couple of years, and the odds are decent that some of the young studs on defense and at running back become experienced studs in 2014 and beyond. Another bounce-back for the King of the Bounce-Back is possible, but it's probably not going to happen this year.

The good news is that the schedule will disguise a lot of the issues. Once the Hokies have taken their whipping on August 31, they will likely be favorites in eight to nine remaining games, even if they are barely a top-40 team. This is not a team equipped to win double-digit games, I believe, but it won't be the end of the world if the Hokies tread water this year while getting some exciting youngsters a lot of playing time. Hope is not lost that Tech can once again find residence among the nation's semi-elite. But the Hokies won't find it this year.

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