College Football

2013 college football rankings: Simulated BCS standings have Oregon up, Ohio State down

There won't be official 2013 BCS standings until midway through the college football season. But we know enough to know what the preseason rankings would look like if they were out, and we know the results are good for Oregon, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame (and not so much for Ohio State or Louisville).

By Samuel Chi Aug 19, 2013, 10:00am EDT

For college football's postseason, these are the days before 1991. The Berlin Wall is soon to fall. The Soviet Union is scheduled to be dissolved. There is a fin de siècle feel. No matter what happens, we know for certain that the much-maligned BCS will be consigned to the ash heap of history at the end of the season.

Few will mourn the passing of the BCS as we leap into a new, unknown age. But some day, we might look back to the BCS era with some fondness, reminiscing about when there was so much transparency to how things are settled. Under the College Football Playoff, there could be no standings, formulas, publicly available polls, or computer rankings to dissect. The fate of the playoff aspirants could be decided in a smoke~~-filled~~ -free conference room on the last day of the regular season.

So while we can, we have put together simulated preseason BCS standings. The method is the same as before: We used the AP poll to stand in for the Harris poll and the median rankings of 24 computer ratings to replace the six official computer rankings to produce a facsimile of what the BCS standings would look like 10 days before the season's first kickoff:

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Rank	2012	Team	Coaches	Coaches %	AP	AP %%	Md*	JS	KM	RB	Computers %	BCS	Conference
1	1	Alabama	1	0.9968	1	0.9987	1	1	1	1	1	0.9985	SEC
2	2	Oregon	3	0.9013	3	0.89	2	2	2	2	0.96	0.9171	P12
3	5	Georgia	5	0.8065	5	0.8327	4	4	4	4	0.88	0.8397	SEC
4	7	Stanford	4	0.8142	4	0.8627	5	5	10	5	0.79	0.8223	P12
5	6	Texas A&M	6	0.7839	7	0.736	3	3	3	3	0.92	0.8133	SEC
6	3	Ohio State	2	0.9206	2	0.91	10	10	17	10	0.57	0.8002	B10
7	8	South Carolina	7	0.7329	6	0.7693	8	8	6	8	0.74	0.7474	SEC
8	11	Clemson	8	0.6755	8	0.722	11	11	14	11	0.57	0.6558	ACC
9	4	Notre Dame	11	0.5626	14	0.4987	6	6	9	6	0.77	0.6104	Ind
10	14	LSU	13	0.5142	12	0.5347	7	7	5	7	0.78	0.6096	SEC
11	9	Florida	10	0.6	10	0.596	12	12	7	12	0.61	0.602	SEC
12	10	Florida State	12	0.5445	11	0.5633	13	13	13	13	0.52	0.5426	ACC
13	29	Oklahoma State	14	0.4684	13	0.5033	9	9	12	9	0.65	0.5406	B12
14	13	Louisville	9	0.6516	9	0.6947					0	0.4488	AA
15	15	Oklahoma	16	0.4	16	0.386	14	14	11	14	0.51	0.432	B12
16	19	Texas	15	0.4013	15	0.4513	15	15	16	15	0.43	0.4275	B12
17	24	Michigan	17	0.38	17	0.354	19	19	20	19	0.27	0.3347	B10
18	25	Nebraska	18	0.2748	18	0.2547	24	24	25	24	0.07	0.1998	B10
19	33	TCU	20	0.2581	20	0.2153	22	22		22	0.12	0.1978	B12
20	12	Kansas State	26	0.0729	31	0.0287	16	16	8	16	0.48	0.1939	B12
21	35	Wisconsin	23	0.111	23	0.1233	17	17	19	17	0.34	0.1914	B10
22	18	Boise State	19	0.271	19	0.2187	25	25		25	0.03	0.1732	MWC
23	26	Baylor	29	0.0516	27	0.0613	18	18	15	18	0.35	0.1543	B12
24	20	Oregon State	25	0.0871	25	0.086	20	20	18	20		0.1444	P12
25	NR	USC	24	0.1065	24	0.0893	21	21	24	21	0.17	0.1219	P12
26	17	Northwestern	22	0.12	22	0.1327	23	23		23	0.09	0.1142	B10
27	31	UCLA	21	0.1303	21	0.1907					0	0.107	P12
28	NR	Miami (Fla.)	27	0.0652	29	0.0567					0	0.0406	ACC
29	NR	Michigan State	28	0.0574	26	0.0633					0	0.0403	B10
30	NR	Virginia Tech	30	0.0419	28	0.0573					0	0.0331	ACC
31	23	Vanderbilt	34	0.0187	33	0.0127			21		0.05	0.0271	SEC
32	NR	Arizona State	32	0.0329	30	0.0353					0	0.0227	P12
33	NR	Ole Miss	33	0.0206	36	0.0073			22		0.04	0.0227	SEC
34	NR	Fresno State	31	0.04	32	0.024					0	0.0213	MWC
35	NR	BYU	36	0.0129	43	0.0007			23		0.03	0.0145	Ind
36	22	Northern Illinois	37	0.0123	35	0.0107					0	0.0076	MAC
37	16	Utah State	35	0.0148	37	0.0053					0	0.0067	MWC
38	NR	North Carolina	37	0.0123	39	0.002					0	0.0048	ACC
39	NR	Washington	43	0.0019	34	0.0113					0	0.0044	P12
40	30	Tulsa	39	0.0058		0					0	0.0019	CUSA
41	NR	Arizona	42	0.0032	39	0.002					0	0.0017	P12
42	NR	Ohio	40	0.0052		0					0	0.0017	MAC
43	21	San Jose State	40	0.0052		0					0	0.0017	MWC
44	NR	Georgia Tech		0	38	0.004					0	0.0013	ACC
45	28	Cincinnati	43	0.0019	39	0.002					0	0.0013	AA
46	NR	East Carolina	43	0.0019		0					0	0.0006	CUSA
46	NR	Kent State	43	0.0019		0					0	0.0006	MAC
46	NR	Mississippi State	43	0.0019		0					0	0.0006	SEC
49	27	Penn State*		0	42	0.0013					0	0.0004	B10
50	33	Central Florida	48	0.0013		0					0	0.0004	AA
51	32	Arkansas State	49	0.0006		0					0	0.0002	Sun
51	NR	Arkansas	49	0.0006		0					0	0.0002	SEC
51	NR	Rutgers	49	0.0006		0					0	0.0002	AA
51	NR	Tennessee	49	0.0006		0					0	0.0002	SEC
51	NR	Toledo	49	0.0006		0					0	0.0002	MAC

Keys: 2012 = Final 2012 Associated Press poll; Md = Median ranking of 24 computer ratings; JS = Jeff Sagarin; KM = Kenneth Massey MOV; RB = Richard Billingsley.

Explanation: This rankings method is a simulation of the actual BCS standings with the following variations: 1) The AP Poll is used in place of the Harris Interactive Poll, which is not published until after the first weekend of October; 2) Three of the six BCS computer ratings are available -- Jeff Sagarin, Kenneth Massey and Richard Billingsley; 3) The other three computer ratings -- Anderson & Hester, Colley Matrix and Peter Wolfe -- will not be available until mid-September or October, so they're replaced by the median ranking of 24 computer ratings.

* Penn State isn't eligible for the actual BCS standings.

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Even though computer rankings tend to be very volatile early in the season, you can already see some patterns emerging.

The simulated standings do not closely conform to the two polls, even though the polls account for two-thirds of the standings and are nearly identical. We can clearly forecast that one top team will have a lot of trouble with the computers: Louisville.

The Cardinals will spend their final season in the former Big East -- newly minted as the American Athletic Conference -- before moving on to the ACC next season. After walloping Florida in the Sugar Bowl, expectations are high for Charlie Strong's team, as reflected in the lofty poll rankings (No. 9 in both the AP and Coaches polls). But the computers are not nearly as high on the Cardinals.

Massey's MOV ratings (different from the BCS ratings, which do not account for margin of victory) have the Cardinals at No. 46, to go with their median computer ranking outside the top 25. Louisville's schedule, which is ranked outside of the top 100, likely will prove to be its Achilles heel.

It's likely Louisville will lose traction in the polls without losing games.

Louisville plays eight nondescript AAC games plus four pretty dreadful non-conference opponents: home games against Ohio, FIU, and FCS Eastern Kentucky and a road game at SEC bottom-feeder Kentucky. Ohio, at No. 42 in the simulated BCS standings, is actually the highest-ranked team among the Cardinals' opponents. After Louisville at No. 14, there's not another AAC team in sight until Cincinnati checks in at No. 43.

It's likely Louisville will lose traction in the polls without losing games. There is not one high-profile opponent on the Cardinals' schedule, which means they're a prime candidate to get leapfrogged by another team with a more impressive victory. So even if they run the table at 12-0 (as the AAC does not have a conference championship game), it's probable that the Cardinals will be jumped by a one-loss team or two from the power conferences.

Beyond Louisville, the simulated standings also offer some other clues about the upcoming season:

With six teams in the top 11, it's nearly assured that the SEC champion will be in the BCS title game for the eighth consecutive season. Unless all SEC teams finish with at least two losses, it's hard to see how the conference would be denied a shot at an eighth straight BCS title (and 10th in 16 years).
The voters are down on Notre Dame, no doubt because of last season's shellacking by Alabama in the BCS title game and the loss of QB Everett Golson. But the computers are giving the Irish a lot more respect. With a reasonably tough schedule including a number of marquee games, Notre Dame will be in the mix for another BCS bowl bid, if not the national championship.
Ohio State, despite being ranked No. 2 in both human polls, has some catching up to do in the computers, as it's barely hovering in the top 10. The Buckeyes also have a relatively soft schedule, with no Michigan State or Nebraska and their only major challenge being the regular-season finale against archrival Michigan at the Big House.
Six of the Big 12's 10 teams are in the top 25, but none higher than No. 14 Oklahoma State. Unless one team emerges to dominate the rest of the conference, it looks like the Big 12's BCS title game drought will stretch to four years.
Even before the College Football Playoff kicks in next season, when the big boys will really have a stranglehold on the system, a significant gap between the haves and have-nots has already opened up in this final BCS season. Only one non-BCS team is in the top 34 spots of the standings: Boise State at No. 22. Do keep in mind, however, that last season Northern Illinois did manage to claim a BCS bowl spot despite opening the season at No. 46.