2013 Duke football's 10 things to know: The breakthrough that wasn't

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. The good news: Last season wasn't it

It's easy to assume that was the peak. With a senior-laden offense in head coach David Cutcliffe's fifth season, Duke scored a couple of close wins and eked out bowl eligibility for the first time since 1994. It was a neat story -- and they damn sure made the Belk Bowl worth watching -- but the Blue Devils' late-season slide (they were 6-2 and finished 6-7) likely signaled that they would soon be going back into hiding for another 20 years.

For all we know, that's exactly what will happen. Cutcliffe has done a wonderful job in Durham just to get to this point. In six years, his Blue Devils have won at least four games three times; they had pulled that off just twice in the 13 years before his arrival. The Duke job is really, really difficult, and Cutcliffe's done his best. If his legacy is a single Belk Bowl bid, that's still better than the legacies of the last two guys and most of the coaches who have taken the job in college football's modern era.

If there's an encouraging note here, though, it comes in the F/+ progression chart below. Duke wasn't actually any better in 2012 than in 2008, 2009, 2010, or 2011. They didn't really do anything special other than go 2-1 in games decided by one possession. (They were 6-13 in such games from 2008-11.) In terms of on-paper production, they have been one of the more consistent programs in college football lately. With some luck and decent experience levels, they could potentially be expected to make the creep to six wins again at some point.

2. The bad news: Last season wasn't it

Yes, Duke indeed figured out a six-win recipe last year, one that could be replicated at some point. And no, they really weren't very good in 2012, ranking 81st in the F/+ rankings after ranking 78th, 68th, 78th, and 75th, respectively, in the four preceding seasons.

For better or worse, that's Duke's ceiling moving forward, as well. Cutcliffe has recruited at a pretty low level for a BCS-conference squad -- again, Duke's a really hard job -- and while he has concocted a pretty interesting system on offense (one that has ranked 53rd and 50th, respectively, in Off. F/+ over the last two years), he has yet to figure anything out defensively. Duke has gotten worse on defense in each of the last four years, and while experience should be enough to end that streak in 2013, it won't turn the tide all that much.

Cutcliffe has done a solid job. He really has. If things break well, the Blue Devils could hold steady on offense, improve slightly on defense, pull off close wins against a Georgia Tech or Pittsburgh, and threaten to reach .500 again this year. But six wins is probably the most they can expect this year … and most years heading into the future.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 3-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 81
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	Florida International	46-26	W	35.7 - 31.8	W
8-Sep	at Stanford	13-50	L	27.2 - 35.9	L
15-Sep	N.C. Central	54-17	W	22.6 - 48.2	L
22-Sep	Memphis	38-14	W	32.4 - 11.2	W
29-Sep	at Wake Forest	34-27	W	27.5 - 36.4	L
6-Oct	Virginia	42-17	W	28.4 - 30.1	L
13-Oct	at Virginia Tech	20-41	L	28.8 - 46.8	L
20-Oct	North Carolina	33-30	W	35.9 - 24.1	W
27-Oct	at Florida State	7-48	L	25.5 - 35.2	L
3-Nov	Clemson	20-56	L	21.3 - 45.1	L
17-Nov	at Georgia Tech	24-42	L	24.3 - 26.9	L
24-Nov	Miami	45-52	L	24.5 - 46.8	L
27-Dec	vs. Cincinnati	34-48	L	42.2 - 43.1	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	31.5	44	36.0	109
Adj. Points Per Game	28.9	58	35.5	115

3. Breaking down

Duke's record was probably going to slide late in the season, no matter what. The Blue Devils' schedule was back-loaded, with Florida State, Clemson, and Miami all coming up in the final four games. They likely knew how important the Wake Forest and North Carolina games were to the six-win cause, and power to them for pulling those games out.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 31.8, Duke 29.5 (minus-2.3)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Opponent 34.4, Duke 30.2 (minus-4.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Opponent 38.5, Duke 23.9 (minus-14.6)

That said, even with the scheduling upgrade, Duke still faded pretty significantly down the stretch. After playing somewhere near (but not quite at) average over the first two months, this team was pretty poor on both sides of the ball late in the year. Injuries on defense and minimal options on offense took their toll, and the result was a pretty impressive collapse: a name-your-score loss to Florida State (as in, FSU could have scored however much it wanted to), an even greater defensive stumble against Clemson, a no-offense loss to Georgia Tech, and a fun shootout loss to Miami. Including a 21-point loss to Virginia Tech, Duke played its worst against its best opponents.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	55	48	48	46
RUSHING	100	62	49	71
PASSING	31	42	49	43
Standard Downs		53	51	59
Passing Downs		32	55	24
Redzone		44	52	42

Q1 Rk	32	1st Down Rk	64
Q2 Rk	64	2nd Down Rk	28
Q3 Rk	50	3rd Down Rk	47
Q4 Rk	51

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Sean Renfree				260	392	2,755	66.3%	18	8	18	4.4%	6.4
Anthony Boone	6'0, 230	Jr.	*** (5.6)	49	95	531	51.6%	5	2	1	1.0%	5.5
Brandon Connette	6'2, 225	Jr.	*** (5.5)	4	12	36	33.3%	2	0	5	29.4%	1.6
Thomas Sirk	6'4, 215	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Parker Boehme	6'2, 215	Fr.	*** (5.5)

4. Take what you're given

Sean Renfree was almost exactly what David Cutcliffe looks for in a quarterback. He's built well (6'3, 220), he's smart and decisive, he avoided bad throws for the most part. And most importantly for the Duke offense, he quickly figured out what the defense was giving him and took it. (Duke's run-pass percentages are a little skewed, considering a good portion of Duke's passes were of the extended-handoff variety.)

For what Renfree had at his disposal -- a revolving door of below-average backs, possession receivers, and no big-play threats whatsoever outside of Jamison Crowder -- the fact that he engineered a top-60 performance out of this unit for two straight years is quite impressive. His legacy is not insurmountable, but in looking at the candidates at hand, it's not difficult to see a drop off in production from the quarterback position in 2013.

Anthony Boone is experienced but impatient. Brandon Connette has been used mostly as a run-first threat (who can't actually run incredibly well). Redshirt freshman, and last year's star recruit, Thomas Sirk is likely missing the season with an Achilles injury. and Parker Boehme is a true freshman. There is no slam-dunk here, to say the least. But whoever wins the job will at least suffice if he can master the art of taking what is given to him.

Lord knows Duke won't suddenly have amazing weapons it didn't have last year. The Blue Devils will have to lean on efficiency once again.

All four of last year's primary running backs return, including rare four-star recruit Shaq Powell. Powell was ineffective as a freshman, but he still has potential, and fellow sophomore Jela Duncan showed more flashes than anybody else in this unit last year (nine carries for 88 yards versus Memphis, six for 64 versus Miami).

The receiving corps, meanwhile, has thinned out a bit with the departure of Conner Vernon and Desmond Scott, two steady possession guys, but Crowder returns. He's exciting, and he could get help in the efficiency department from guys like Brandon Braxton and Issac Blakeney. And in theory, the tight end position could see more play this year with the return of David Reeves, Braxton Deaver, and an interesting redshirt freshman in Dan Bellinson. The skill position ceiling isn't very high here, but there's at least a little bit of potential in guys like Duncan, Crowder, and Powell.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Jela Duncan	RB	5'10, 210	So.	*** (5.7)	109	553	5.1	4.2	4	+5.3
Josh Snead	RB	5'9, 190	Jr.	*** (5.7)	99	496	5.0	3.9	2	+3.4
Juwan Thompson	RB	5'11, 225	Sr.	*** (5.7)	75	352	4.7	3.5	1	-1.3
Brandon Connette	QB	6'2, 225	Jr.	*** (5.5)	41	91	2.2	1.5	7	-7.9
Shaquille Powell	RB	5'10, 205	So.	**** (5.8)	28	93	3.3	1.0	0	-5.1
Anthony Boone	QB	6'0, 230	Jr.	*** (5.6)	25	88	3.5	2.8	2	-2.1
Sean Renfree	QB				20	91	4.6	4.1	1	-0.4

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Conner Vernon	WR				128	85	1074	66.4%	8.4	24.6%	61.7%	8.4	126.6
Jamison Crowder	WR	5'9, 175	Jr.	*** (5.5)	116	76	1074	65.5%	9.3	22.3%	55.2%	9.4	126.6
Desmond Scott	WR				92	66	666	71.7%	7.2	17.7%	63.0%	7.3	78.5
Brandon Braxton (2011)	WR	6'1, 210	Sr.	** (5.3)	66	40	352	60.6%	5.3	14.0%	60.6%	N/A	N/A
Issac Blakeney	SLOT	6'6, 235	Jr.	** (5.2)	53	32	290	60.4%	5.5	10.2%	58.5%	5.5	34.2
Juwan Thompson	RB	5'11, 225	Sr.	*** (5.7)	33	24	128	72.7%	3.9	6.3%	54.5%	4.0	15.1
David Reeves	TE	6'5, 250	So.	*** (5.5)	28	18	122	64.3%	4.4	5.4%	53.6%	4.3	14.4
Jela Duncan	RB	5'10, 210	So.	*** (5.7)	25	19	89	76.0%	3.6	4.8%	44.0%	3.8	10.5
Josh Snead	RB	5'9, 190	Jr.	*** (5.7)	14	10	46	71.4%	3.3	2.7%	50.0%	2.9	5.4
Braxton Deaver (2011)	TE	6'5, 240	Jr.	** (5.3)	12	8	107	66.7%	8.9	2.5%	58.3%	N/A	N/A
Brandon Connette	QB	6'2, 225	Jr.	*** (5.5)	12	11	85	91.7%	7.1	2.3%	58.3%	7.1	10.0
Corey Gattis	WR				9	6	63	66.7%	7.0	1.7%	77.8%	5.4	7.4
Erich Schneider	SLOT	6'7, 225	So.	*** (5.6)	3	1	13	33.3%	4.3	0.6%	0.0%	2.6	1.5
Dan Beilinson	TE	6'6, 250	RSFr.	*** (5.6)
Anthony Nash	WR	6'5, 200	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Johnell Barnes	WR	5'11, 154	Fr.	*** (5.7)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	112.0	3.02	3.78	34.8%	65.7%	17.1%	219.9	1.7%	3.3%
Rank	18	57	15	107	72	31	9	13	15

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Brian Moore	C				40 career starts
Perry Simmons	RT	6'5, 300	Sr.	** (5.0)	37 career starts
Dave Harding	LG	6'4, 285	Sr.	*** (5.6)	27 career starts
Laken Tomlinson	RG	6'3, 320	Jr.	*** (5.7)	25 career starts
Takoby Cofield	LT	6'4, 305	Jr.	*** (5.7)	15 career starts
John Coleman	C	6'4, 290	Sr.	** (5.4)	9 career starts
Conor Irwin	C				2 career starts
Cody Robinson	LG	6'3, 300	So.	*** (5.7)
Lucas Patrick	LG	6'4, 310	So.	*** (5.6)
Marcus Aprahamian	RG	6'4, 300	So.	*** (5.5)
Matt Skura	C	6'4, 290	So.	** (5.3)
Carson Ginn	RT	6'6, 300	So.	** (5.3)
Tanner Stone	LT	6'6, 290	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Casey Blaser	RT	6'5, 280	RSFr.	** (5.3)

5. A legitimately strong line

The skill positions weren't exactly amazing last year, but John Latina's line was damn strong. That Duke managed a top-10 ranking in Adj. Sack Rate could be at least partially ascribed to the nature of the quick-passing game, but the fact that Duke also ranked in the Adj. Line Yards top 20 is a highly encouraging sign.

The Blue Devils did face quite a few solid defensive lines (which gives the adjusted rankings a bit of a boost), and with a three-year starter, two two-year starters, and two others with starting experience in this year's unit (not to mention more experienced running backs attempting to take advantage of the opportunities the line creates), Duke could produce the same stats this time around.

It goes without saying that a line that knows what it's doing makes everybody else on the offense look pretty good. This line could make sure that Duke's offense doesn't slip much despite the loss of Renfree, Vernon, etc.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	109	117	106	118
RUSHING	103	115	116	107
PASSING	104	113	57	121
Standard Downs		121	108	122
Passing Downs		92	83	96
Redzone		68	50	86

Q1 Rk	110	1st Down Rk	124
Q2 Rk	106	2nd Down Rk	68
Q3 Rk	112	3rd Down Rk	96
Q4 Rk	94

6. When experience isn't completely a good thing

I've used the Columbia-in-the-1980s example before, but I'll use it again. Back in the 1980s, when Columbia was mired in a ridiculous losing streak, I noted to my father that, per whatever preview magazine I was looking at (Sporting News, probably), the Lions returned quite a few starters, and that experience could really push them forward that year. (I've always been an unapologetic homer to underdogs.) And of course, he noted that experience only matters if there's at least a small semblance of talent involved.

Well, Duke's front six (the Blue Devils run a 4-2-5) has the experience in 2013. Every defensive lineman returns, as do last year's top three linebackers and 2011 starter Kelby Brown. That's appealing. But it only matters if these players have some level of talent.

Duke ranked 123rd -- second to last in FBS -- in Adj. Line Yards, 121st in Standard Downs S&P+, and 115th in Rushing S&P+. That's horrendous. The Blue Devils never got anybody in the backfield without blitzing, allowed more passing-downs line yards (while selling out on the blitz) than anybody in the country, and constantly allowed opposing runners to get to the second level of the defense. The front six was neither big nor particularly fast, and while experience is good, athleticism is better.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	79.5	3.39	4.37	45.4%	66.7%	14.0%	102.3	2.3%	10.2%
Rank	123	119	124	119	50	120	58	114	14

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Justin Foxx	DE	6'3, 255	Sr.	*** (5.7)	8	31.5	4.6%	3.5	3.5	0	0	0	1
Kenny Anunike	DE	6'6, 260	Sr.	*** (5.6)	11	28.5	4.2%	6	5	0	0	1	0
Nick Sink	DT	6'6, 285	Jr.	** (5.4)	12	18.5	2.7%	1	0.5	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Woodruff	DE	6'3, 225	Jr.	** (5.4)	12	18.0	2.7%	4.5	2.5	0	0	0	2
Dezmond Johnson	DE	6'4, 260	Jr.	*** (5.6)	11	16.5	2.4%	5.5	3	0	0	0	0
Sydney Sarmiento	DT	6'4, 300	Sr.	** (5.2)	12	16.5	2.4%	3.5	1.5	0	0	0	1
Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo	DE	6'4, 240	Jr.	** (5.2)	11	14.5	2.1%	3.5	2.5	0	0	1	0
Jamal Wallace	DE	6'4, 275	Jr.	*** (5.6)	8	7.0	1.0%	1.5	1.5	0	0	1	0
Steven Ingram	NG	6'2, 315	Jr.	** (5.2)	10	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Jamal Bruce	NG	6'1, 285	Jr.	** (5.4)	6	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Sam Marshall	DT	6'7, 285	So.	** (5.3)	6	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Britton Grier	DE	6'1, 245	Jr.	** (5.4)	10	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Carlos Wray	NG	6'2, 290	So.	*** (5.5)	8	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Keilin Raynder	NG	6'3, 270	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Michael Mann	DE	6'4, 230	RSFr.	** (5.3)
A.J. Wolf	DT	6'4, 270	RSFr.	** (5.3)

7. But hey, they could pin their ears back

The 4-2-5 is sometimes a reactive defense, utilizing its speed to swarm to the ball. Defenses like TCU's don't always log an incredible volume of tackles for loss, but at its best, this defense can minimize big gains.

Jim Knowles' 4-2-5, on the other hand, was the complete opposite. The Blue Devils were a big-play sieve last year, and the one thing they did relatively well was get after the quarterback on passing downs. There was no hope of forcing passing downs because of a non-existent run D, but on the rare occasion when they did, they could occasionally come up with a nice, big play. Or, you know, give up one.

The personality should be similar in 2013. In ends Justin Foxx and Kenny Anunike, Knowles has a pair of decent pass rushers who combined for 8.5 sacks. (With more passing downs, this could have been 10-15.) But other than with the aforementioned experience, there's no indication that the Blue Devils will actually be any better at leveraging opponents into passing downs.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kelby Brown (2011)	WLB	6'2, 230	Jr.	*** (5.7)	10	48.0	7.8%	7	1.5	0	3	1	0
C.J. France	WLB	6'0, 230	Jr.	*** (5.5)	12	41.0	6.0%	1.5	0	1	3	1	0
David Helton	MLB	6'4, 235	Jr.	*** (5.5)	12	36.0	5.3%	2.5	0	0	0	0	0
Kyler Brown	MLB	6'4, 230	So.	** (5.4)	11	35.5	5.2%	1.5	0	0	3	1	0
Austin Gamble	MLB				12	24.5	3.6%	1.5	0.5	0	1	1	1
Deion Williams	WLB	6'0, 230	So.	*** (5.6)	12	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dominic Zanca	LB	6'2, 242	Fr.	*** (5.6)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Walt Canty	BANDIT				12	76.5	11.3%	5.5	0.5	1	3	1	1
Jordon Byas	STRIKE				9	60.5	8.9%	6	0.5	2	2	1	0
Ross Cockrell	CB	6'0, 190	Sr.	*** (5.5)	12	51.5	7.6%	4	1	5	12	1	0
Dwayne Norman	ROVER	6'1, 200	So.	*** (5.6)	12	44.0	6.5%	0.5	0	0	1	1	2
Tony Foster	CB				12	30.5	4.5%	1.5	0.5	1	5	0	0
Lee Butler	CB				11	27.0	4.0%	0	0	1	4	2	0
Brandon Braxton	ROVER				7	27.0	4.0%	1.5	0	0	1	0	0
Tim Burton	CB				7	7.0	1.0%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Anthony Young-Wiseman	STRIKE	6'0, 220	Sr.	** (5.0)	7	7.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Garett Patterson	CB	6'1, 190	Sr.	** (4.9)	12	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Corbin McCarthy	STRIKE	5'10, 200	RSFr.	** (5.4)	2	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jeremy Cash	BANDIT	6'2, 210	So.	*** (5.7)
Jared Boyd	CB	5'9, 170	So.	*** (5.6)
Nick Hill	STRIKE	6'2, 220	So.	** (5.4)
DeVon Edwards	CB	5'9, 185	RSFr.	** (5.4)
Michael Westray	BANDIT	6'1, 200	RSFr.	** (5.3)
Evrett Edwards	CB	5'11, 175	Fr.	*** (5.6)
Quay Mann	CB	5'9, 195	Fr.	** (5.4)

8. Ross Cockrell, all alone

Knowles was able to utilize safeties Walt Canty and Jordon Byas aggressively in 2012, giving Duke some hope of making a stop behind the line before it allowed a 30-yard gain. And in Ross Cockrell, he had a damn strong cornerback; Cockrell was asked to do a ton, but he held his own, recording four tackles for loss and defensing 17 passes.

Of course, Duke was still mostly awful in the passing game, and now the secondary must replace six of last year's top eight tacklers. Cockrell's back, but nobody else is; new blood can be good for a sketchy unit, but an outright blood transfusion is still scary.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Will Monday	6'4, 210	So.	66	44.1	6	11	18	43.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Ross Martin	5'9, 185	So.	70	62.6	26	37.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Ross Martin	5'9, 185	So.	44-44	12-14	85.7%	6-6	100.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Lee Butler	KR			17	20.1	0
Tim Burton	KR			13	20.0	0
Jela Duncan	KR	5'10, 210	So.	9	16.3	0
Lee Butler	PR			11	17.0	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	22
Net Punting	40
Net Kickoffs	44
Touchback Pct	53
Field Goal Pct	7
Kick Returns Avg	118
Punt Returns Avg	7

9. Find a kick returner

Because of an awesome kicker and solid punt returning from Lee Butler, Duke was able to generate a decent field position advantage through special teams. But the kick returns were atrocious, and Butler's now gone. The kicking and punting are in decent hands, but surely there's somebody who can at least average 22-23 yards per kick return, right? (And with this team, kick returns are more important than punt returns, if you catch my drift.)

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	N.C. Central	NR
7-Sep	at Memphis	116
14-Sep	Georgia Tech	32
21-Sep	Pittsburgh	35
28-Sep	Troy	95
12-Oct	Navy	87
19-Oct	at Virginia	71
26-Oct	at Virginia Tech	23
9-Nov	N.C. State	61
16-Nov	Miami	25
23-Nov	at Wake Forest	81
30-Nov	at North Carolina	29

Five-Year F/+ Rk	86
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	67
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+2 / +0.8
TO Luck/Game	0.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (7, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-0.1

10. Start hot

The goal for Duke is, and will always be, finding the sixth win. Cutcliffe has improved both recruiting and performance, but unless he finds a batch of major diamonds in the rough, the ceiling is six.

Okay, so where are this year's six? N.C. Central and Memphis, certainly. Troy and Navy are quite beatable. That's four. But the best opportunities for two more wins probably come in September, when Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh visit. Both the Yellow Jackets and Panthers get pretty friendly projections in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2013, but if Duke can build some confidence early, and if the new pieces on offense can gel pretty quickly, the Blue Devils could ride a hot start back to bowl eligibility. And if they slip up, they still have N.C. State and Miami at home later on, along with a less-than-intimidating trip to Wake Forest.

Still, as always, the margin for error is minimal. The Blue Devils still work with less raw talent than anybody in the conference not named Wake, and they still have no choice but to take most of their close games.

The good news is that last season doesn't have to be a one-off. The bad news is that Duke still wasn't very good last season. Cutcliffe has done an incredible job just to get Duke to this level. They're probably not taking another step up any time soon.

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