2013 Rutgers football's 10 things to know: Is the future ready for the present?

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. The future is now

In terms of on-field merit, Rutgers' hire of Kyle Flood following former head coach Greg Schiano's move to the NFL seemed a bit off-putting. Rutgers had one of the least successful lines in the 2011, and Flood was the line coach. He had been offensive co-coordinator in 2009-10 but didn't hold that title anymore, and his line was regressing quite a bit.

Generally speaking, though, the hire was well-received. Why? Recruiting. Flood had a reputation for being really good at it. And sure enough, his first recruiting class as head coach was a doozy: five-star defensive end Darius Hamilton, four four-star recruits, and six players with the highest three-star designation from Rivals.com. Despite only 19 commitments overall, Flood's signing class ranked in Rivals' top 25. The 2013 class wasn't as well-regarded but still included a four-star and six more high-threes. For Rutgers, residing in an area of the country not exactly littered with star recruits, with recruiting competition in the area from basically every Big Ten and ACC school -- there were nine four-star recruits in the state of New Jersey in 2013, and they signed with Miami, North Carolina, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, and even LSU -- this has been an impressive haul.

Combined with the work done when Schiano was head coach, Rutgers has a nice base of high-three and four-star talent in basically every unit. And in 2013, that talent has to prove itself. There is no choice. If young players don't begin to live up to recruiting hype, Rutgers is going to sink like a stone.

Gone is two-time conference defensive player of the year Khaseem Greene. Gone are defensive tackle Scott Vallone and two other starters on what was the best run-stuffing line in the country. Gone is explosive corner Logan Ryan. Gone is all-conference offensive tackle R.J. Dill. Gone are receivers Mark Harrison and Tim Wright. Gone is do-everything back Jawan Jamison. The future is now for Rutgers, and while the base of talent is quite intriguing, there is no more waiting. Whatever Rutgers is going to become under Flood, the transformation begins in a week.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 39
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
1-Sep	at Tulane	24-12	W	20.5 - 21.2	L
8-Sep	Howard	26-0	W	14.7 - 14.7	W
13-Sep	at South Florida	23-13	W	20.4 - 26.7	L
22-Sep	at Arkansas	35-26	W	35.2 - 37.1	L
6-Oct	Connecticut	19-3	W	30.3 - 21.1	W
13-Oct	Syracuse	23-15	W	16.2 - 23.8	L
20-Oct	at Temple	35-10	W	27.9 - 13.4	W
27-Oct	Kent State	23-35	L	31.9 - 26.2	W
10-Nov	Army	28-7	W	15.7 - 18.4	L
17-Nov	at Cincinnati	10-3	W	35.7 - 23.0	W
24-Nov	at Pittsburgh	6-27	L	13.3 - 25.3	L
29-Nov	Louisville	17-20	L	29.3 - 18.4	W
28-Dec	vs. Virginia Tech	10-13	L	3.5 - 8.2	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	21.5	98	14.2	4
Adj. Points Per Game	22.7	110	21.4	17

2. No alibi

Rutgers games were just so, so damn ugly in 2012. The defense, 11th in the country in Def. F/+ under new defensive coordinator Robb Smith (who has since left to join Schiano's staff in Tampa Bay), simply ground opposing offenses to a pulp, forcing them to pass, preventing big plays, and eventually forcing mistakes. The Scarlet Knights had a rugged, Saban-esque bear hug defense, but their offense turned opposing defenses into the same thing. Rutgers really wanted to run but couldn't, moving the ball only when Brandon Coleman caught a bomb. And while bombs are exciting, they were not particularly frequent, and most Rutgers games became festivals of punts and frustration.

The offense found life in the middle of the season, but it only brought them to an average level. And then the Scarlet Knights sank back to far, far below average.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): Opponent 20.9, Rutgers 18.5 (minus-2.4)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 7 games): Rutgers 27.6, Opponent 23.3 (plus-4.3)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 3 games): Opponent 17.3, Rutgers 15.4 (minus-1.9)

About offensive coordinator Dave Brock, I said this in last year's preview:

One other person might still have a bit of growing to do: Brock. To put it kindly, his résumé -- Temple offensive coordinator from 2002-04, Kansas State offensive coordinator in 2008, Boston College tight ends coach from 2009-11 -- lacks sparkle.

The product matched the résumé. It's not like he spoiled a great offense or anything -- Rutgers had ranked 82nd, 103rd, and 77th in Off. F/+ from 2009-11 and ranked 84th in 2012 -- but he quite obviously wasn't the answer. He was dumped in favor of former Kansas State head coach Ron Prince, while Smith's departure opened the door for linebackers coach Dave Cohen's promotion to defensive coordinator.

Offense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	107	116	119	106
RUSHING	106	118	121	109
PASSING	88	89	100	87
Standard Downs		109	119	96
Passing Downs		108	111	104
Redzone		111	118	92

Q1 Rk	115	1st Down Rk	104
Q2 Rk	104	2nd Down Rk	111
Q3 Rk	94	3rd Down Rk	107
Q4 Rk	120

3. Ron P

The Internet's favorite college football coach is back coaching college football. Let us rejoice.

Before he became Bill Snyder's failed successor and the world's greatest contract negotiator, Ron Prince was actually a reasonably successful offensive coordinator at Virginia. In three years in the role, Prince's Hoos averaged between 5.4 and 6.1 yards per play. Their style changed depending on the talent at hand; with Matt Schaub at quarterback and completing 70 percent of his passes in 2003, Virginia threw the ball 53 percent of the time. With Schaub gone and the mobile Marques Hagans taking over the next year, the Cavaliers ran 64 percent of the time with Hagans and backs Alvin Pearman and Wali Lundy. And with Hagans more experienced and Pearman gone in 2005, it was basically a 50-50 split.

One saw the same thing in his time at Kansas State. With quarterback Josh Freeman starting as a true freshman, KSU leaned heavily on the run. As Freeman grew more experienced, the pass became more of a featured (if not elite) option. After he left Kansas State, Prince bounced from Virginia special teams coach to assistant offensive line coach for the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars. This is his first time calling plays in a while, but if he indeed builds a system around the talent at hand, to what will he cater at Rutgers in 2013?

No really, I'm asking you. I'm not sure.

Here's what we know so far:

"Coach Prince wants to be aggressive in the run game."

"(I’ve) been able to establish the tight end as a very important part of our offense."

"We're in and out of the huddle a lot faster, things like that."

"Prince coached Josh Freeman with the Wildcats and hopes to be a little more wide-open."

"His favorite phrase* was 'bold and daring,' so that should give you an idea. He once called two halfback pass plays in a row. In fact, the halfback pass was probably his favorite play. Also, very possibly his most effective. A lot of memories from this time are suppressed, but I think he ran an onside kick once where the kicker fell down as a diversion. You won't be bored."

I mean ... excitement's not necessarily a bad thing, I guess. And this was certainly a bold and daring hire.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Gary Nova	6'2, 220	Jr.	*** (5.7)	221	388	2,695	57.0%	22	16	11	2.8%	6.6
Chas Dodd	6'0, 200	Sr.	** (5.4)	1	1	0	100.0%	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	TD	Adj. POE
Jawan Jamison	RB				255	1,075	4.2	4.7	4	-20.2
Savon Huggins	RB	6'0, 200	Jr.	**** (5.9)	119	410	3.4	3.2	2	-20.7
Gary Nova	QB	6'2, 220	Jr.	*** (5.7)	11	22	2.0	7.6	0	-3.8
Ben Martin	RB				10	48	4.8	2.7	0	-2.9
Jeremy Deering	WR	6'2, 200	Sr.	*** (5.6)	6	57	9.5	6.1	0	+2.9
Paul James	RB	6'0, 210	So.	NR	5	22	4.4	1.8	0	-0.2
Desmon Peoples	RB	5'8, 175	RSFr.	*** (5.5)
Justin Goodwin	RB	6'0, 180	Fr.	*** (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Yds/ Target	Target Rate	%SD	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Brandon Coleman	WR	6'6, 220	Jr.	**** (5.8)	93	43	718	46.2%	7.7	25.3%	55.9%	7.9	88.1
Mark Harrison	WR				71	44	583	62.0%	8.2	19.3%	63.4%	8.1	71.5
Timothy Wright	WR				64	39	449	60.9%	7.0	17.4%	37.5%	7.5	55.1
Jawan Jamison	RB				37	28	323	75.7%	8.7	10.1%	43.2%	8.6	39.6
Quron Pratt	WR	6'0, 190	Sr.	*** (5.5)	32	22	230	68.8%	7.2	8.7%	46.9%	7.7	28.2
D.C. Jefferson	TE				31	20	168	64.5%	5.4	8.4%	61.3%	5.4	20.6
Savon Huggins	RB	6'0, 200	Jr.	**** (5.9)	13	7	19	53.8%	1.5	3.5%	53.8%	1.4	2.3
Paul Carrezola	TE	6'2, 240	Sr.	*** (5.6)	9	8	45	88.9%	5.0	2.5%	77.8%	6.2	5.5
Miles Shuler	WR	5'10, 175	Jr.	**** (5.8)	8	5	71	62.5%	8.9	2.2%	50.0%	9.6	8.7
Tyler Kroft	TE	6'6, 240	So.	*** (5.5)	4	3	59	75.0%	14.8	1.1%	50.0%	16.6	7.2
Michael Burton	FB	6'0, 235	Jr.	NR	3	3	34	100.0%	11.3	0.8%	100.0%	6.9	4.2
Leonte Carroo	WR	6'1, 200	So.	**** (5.8)
Ruhann Peele	WR	6'1, 185	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Carlton Agudosi	WR	6'6, 205	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Andre Patton	WR	6'4, 195	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Janarion Grant	WR	5'11, 170	Fr.	*** (5.7)

4. Someone step up ... anyone

I'm not sure what "aggressive in the run game" means, but Rutgers must improve drastically on the ground no matter how aggressive it wants to be. Only six offenses were worse at running the ball than Rutgers in 2012; Jawan Jamison had some explosiveness in him but was frequently caught behind the line, and former four-star signee Savon Huggins was better at getting back to the line but rarely actually did any open-field damage. Oh yeah, and the line was still awful at run blocking. It was odd to see Rutgers get three players on the all-conference first or second team considering the Scarlet Knights ranked 112th in Opportunity Rate and 121st in Stuff rate -- even if Jamison and Huggins did the line no favors, that still has to be pinned quite a bit on the line itself.

With better blocking, Huggins and new backup Paul James are still likely to be mostly between-the-tackles, four-yards-at-a-time guys. There's value in that, but an explosive option on the outside (like perhaps freshman Justin Goodwin) would help considerably.

Meanwhile, in the passing game, Brandon Coleman is considered a potentially high draft pick because of his explosiveness; the junior averaged 16.7 yards per catch as virtually the only big-play threat on the team. He caught six passes for 104 yards versus Syracuse, two for 49 versus Cincinnati, and two for 100 versus Louisville. He is a lovely weapon in the arsenal, but he is an all-or-nothing guy, and he needs some possession help. Senior Quron Pratt is okay in that regard, but here's an instance where former star recruits need to start looking like it. Junior Miles Shuler has been a bit player his first two years, and while big things are expected of sophomore Leonte Carroo, he didn't produce much of anything in his freshman season. And if Prince is wanting to get the tight ends involved, then obviously Paul Carrezola and Tyler Kroft are going to have to make the most of increased opportunities. They averaged a decent 8.0 yards per target last year, but in only a single target per game.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	87.1	2.54	2.43	33.5%	60.0%	26.4%	206.7	3.8%	2.1%
Rank	107	113	115	112	99	121	12	45	8

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Kaleb Johnson	LG	6'4, 305	Jr.	*** (5.5)	23 career starts; 2012 1st All-Big East
R.J. Dill	RT				43 career starts; 2012 2nd All-Big East
Antwan Lowery	RG	6'4, 310	Sr.	*** (5.7)	20 career starts; 2012 2nd All-Big East
Andre Civil	RT	6'3, 285	Sr.	*** (5.7)	21 career starts
Betim Bujari	C	6'4, 295	Jr.	*** (5.5)	16 career starts
David Osei	LG				5 career starts
Taj Alexander	RT	6'4, 290	Jr.	** (5.2)	4 career starts
Matt McBride	C
Devon Watkis	RT
Bryan Leoni	LT	6'6, 280	Jr.	NR
Marquise Wright	LG	6'3, 285	So.	**** (5.8)
Keith Lumpkin	LT	6'8, 315	So.	*** (5.7)
Chris Muller	RG	6'6, 300	RSFr.	**** (5.9)
J.J. Denman	RT	6'6, 300	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Ryan Brodie	OL	6'5, 300	RSFr.	*** (5.7)

5. Time to produce

Regardless of whether the all-conference honors were deserved, Rutgers does return two highly regarded guards, each entering basically his third respective year as a starter. In all, five players with starting experience return (84 career starts), which is fine, but he sooner players like sophomore Keith Lumpkin and a three former four-star recruits (guards Marquise Wright and Chris Muller and tackle J.J. Denman) can bull their way into the rotation, the better.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	10	20	25	17
RUSHING	6	6	18	4
PASSING	39	41	50	41
Standard Downs		17	19	15
Passing Downs		36	51	34
Redzone		19	25	14

Q1 Rk	20	1st Down Rk	19
Q2 Rk	21	2nd Down Rk	34
Q3 Rk	20	3rd Down Rk	31
Q4 Rk	51

6. It's been a while since Rutgers had a bad defense

Rutgers' defense hasn't always been what it was the last two years. The presence of stars like Scott Vallone, Khaseem Greene, and Logan Ryan obviously helped tremendously in turning a defense that ranked 64th in Def. F/+ in 2010 into one that ranked 15th in 2011 and 11th in 2012. Still, even before 2011, the defense was always at least decent. The Scarlet Knights allowed 26.5 points per game in 2010 -- still below the national average -- and that was the only time they pushed over the 25-point mark since 2005.

The 2013 Rutgers defense will regress. There's just no way around it. Greene, Vallone, Ryan, middle linebacker Steve Beauharnais, ends Ka'Lial Glaud and Marvin Booker, safety Duron Harmon, two other corners, the defensive coordinator … the Scarlet Knights simply lost too much unique individual talent to avoid falling backwards a bit this fall. The question is, where's the new baseline?

Quite a few incredibly exciting youngsters will become main-stage players this year, from linemen Darius Hamilton, Djwany Mera, Quanzell Lambert, and Jamil Pollard, to linebacker Steve Longa, to DBs Nadir Barnwell, Tejay Johnson, and Ian Thomas. Even if the defense is strong, it's going to also be young and stupid and volatile, but where will the Scarlet Knights' new averages fall? Because while the offense almost has no choice but to improve, it probably won't be enough to offset the defense falling into the 40s or 50s in Def. F/+.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	137.9	2.06	1.95	30.1%	57.8%	27.6%	93.4	5.0%	5.8%
Rank	1	1	5	4	8	3	75	49	75

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Scott Vallone	DT				13	37.0	5.3%	12.5	3	1	3	0	1
Ka'Lial Glaud	DE				13	31.0	4.4%	4	3	5	1	1	1
Jamil Merrell	DE	6'4, 255	Sr.	*** (5.7)	13	30.0	4.3%	10.5	5.5	0	0	1	1
Marvin Booker	DE				10	18.5	2.6%	6	1	2	0	0	0
Marcus Thompson	DE	6'2, 260	Sr.	*** (5.6)	13	16.5	2.4%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	1
Darius Hamilton	DT	6'4, 260	So.	***** (6.1)	12	10.5	1.5%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Isaac Holmes	NT	6'3, 280	Sr.	**** (5.8)	4	6.0	0.9%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Myles Jackson	DE	6'4, 245	So.	** (5.4)	4	4.0	0.6%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Max Issaka	DE	6'3, 250	So.	*** (5.7)	7	2.5	0.4%	2	1	0	0	0	0
Kenneth Kirksey	NT	6'1, 275	Jr.	*** (5.7)	8	2.5	0.4%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
David Milewski	DE	6'4, 250	Jr.	** (5.4)
Al Page	NT	6'2, 280	So.	*** (5.6)
Daryl Stephenson	DT	6'3, 280	So.	*** (5.5)
Djwany Mera	DE	6'4, 260	So.	**** (5.8)
Jamil Pollard	DT	6'3, 280	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Quanzell Lambert	DE	6'1, 230	RSFr.	**** (5.8)
Julian Pinnix-Odrick	DE	6'5, 250	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Nick Internicola	DE	6'3, 230	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Sebastian Joseph	DT	6'4, 270	Fr.	*** (5.5)

7. Look at these rankings

No. 1 in Adj. Line Yards. No. 1 in standard downs line yards per carry. No. 3 in Stuff Rate (run stops behind the line). No. 4 in Opportunity Rate (second-level opportunities for the runners). No. 8 in Power Success Rate. This defense was simply awesome against the run. Despite the presence of Greene and end-turned-tackle-turned-end Jamil Merrell, the Rutgers pass rush wasn't that great. But this was a ridiculously good run front.

And while both Merrell brothers (Jamil and his linebacker brother Jamal) return, and while the aforementioned exciting youngster are indeed exciting, there's just so much to replace from an exceptional front seven.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Khaseem Greene	WLB				13	103.0	14.7%	12	6	2	5	6	3
Jamal Merrell	SLB	6'4, 220	Sr.	*** (5.7)	13	60.0	8.6%	8.5	1	1	0	1	1
Steve Beauharnais	MLB				13	57.5	8.2%	6	1	1	1	0	1
Kevin Snyder	WLB	6'3, 235	Jr.	*** (5.5)	13	21.0	3.0%	7	2	0	2	0	0
Nick DePaola	WLB	6'0, 210	Sr.	NR	13	9.5	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Quentin Gause	SLB	6'1, 220	So.	*** (5.7)	12	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Steve Longa	WLB	6'1, 220	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Myles Nash	LB	6'5, 205	Fr.	*** (5.7)
L.J. Liston	MLB	6'2, 230	Fr.	*** (5.6)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Logan Ryan	CB				13	76.5	10.9%	5	0	4	17	0	2
Lorenzo Waters	SS	6'0, 205	Jr.	*** (5.6)	13	54.5	7.8%	6.5	2	1	2	2	1
Duron Harmon	FS				13	43.0	6.1%	1.5	0	1	7	0	1
Lewis Toler (WMU)	CB	5'11, 190	Sr.	** (5.1)	12	32.0	4.5%	2	0	3	7	0	1
Marcus Cooper	CB				13	26.5	3.8%	3	0	0	3	0	0
Brandon Jones	CB				13	24.0	3.4%	1	0	0	9	0	1
Wayne Warren	FS				13	17.0	2.4%	2	0	0	3	0	0
Mason Robinson	SS				13	10.0	1.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Tejay Johnson	CB	6'2, 205	So.	*** (5.7)	13	8.5	1.2%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Gareef Glashen	CB	5'10, 180	Jr.	*** (5.5)	10	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jeremy Deering	SS	6'2, 200	Sr.	*** (5.6)	12	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sheldon Royster	S	5'11, 185	Jr.	**** (5.8)
Ian Thomas	CB	6'1, 200	RSFr.	*** (5.7)
Nadir Barnwell	CB	5'11, 190	Fr.	**** (5.8)
T.J. Taylor	DB	6'3, 190	Fr.	*** (5.7)
Anthony Cioffi	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	*** (5.7)

8. Total renovation

And yet, the front seven is infinitely less green than the secondary, which must replace its top three cornerbacks and three of its top four safeties. Western Michigan transfer Lewis Toler will help stem the tide, as will converted running back/converted receiver (converted everything, basically) Jeremy Deering. But Rutgers will be forced to lean on freshmen to a certain degree in the secondary; they're potentially pretty damn good freshmen, but they're freshmen.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Justin Doerner			81	37.2	7	19	18	45.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Anthony Dipaula			39	57.7	4	10.3%
Kyle Federico	6'0, 190	So.	15	59.9	6	40.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Nick Borgese	5'11, 180	So.	17-18	3-4	75.0%	2-4	50.0%
Kyle Federico	6'0, 190	So.	13-13	4-6	66.7%	2-5	40.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2013 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jeremy Deering	KR	6'2, 200	Sr.	18	24.3	0
Mason Robinson	KR			4	23.2	0
Miles Shuler	KR	5'10, 175	Jr.	1	17.0	0
Mason Robinson	PR			29	3.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	67
Net Punting	120
Net Kickoffs	97
Touchback Pct	109
Field Goal Pct	107
Kick Returns Avg	34
Punt Returns Avg	108

9. Help your defense

Thanks to decent kick returns and a great defense, Rutgers ranked a not-awful 51st in Field Position Advantage last year. Granted, Jeremy Deering is back to return kicks again, but the goal for the Rutgers offense and special teams simply has to be taking heat off of the defense and winning the field position battle. The defense simply isn't going to be able to bail the Scarlet Knights out as much.

That means the punting (helmed by Utah transfer Nick Marsh) has to improve dramatically, kickoffs have to reach the end zone, and somebody has to improve on Mason Robinson's wretched punt return averages. There's no choice here. If Rutgers is going to come anywhere close to nine wins again this year, it will have to leverage field position better than it did a year ago.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
29-Aug	at Fresno State	50
7-Sep	Norfolk State	NR
14-Sep	Eastern Michigan	117
21-Sep	Arkansas	43
5-Oct	at SMU	91
10-Oct	at Louisville	31
26-Oct	Houston	58
2-Nov	Temple	64
16-Nov	Cincinnati	26
21-Nov	at Central Florida	55
30-Nov	at Connecticut	53
7-Dec	South Florida	67

Five-Year F/+ Rk	45
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	31
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	+10 / +6.8
TO Luck/Game	+1.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	10 (7, 3)
Yds/Pt Margin**	-6.6

10. High variance

Rutgers is the wild card of the AAC this year. You can talk me into believing just about anything. Ron Prince instills general offensive competence, the defense holds on for a top-30 or top-35 ranking, and the Scarlet Knights go undefeated at home, take down beatable road teams like SMU, UCF, and UConn and go about 10-2? Sure. I could see that. The offense only improves a bit, the unstable, young defense falls back to the 50s (or worse), special teams still stinks, RU loses its road games and drops home games to teams like Cincinnati and USF to finish in the 4-8 range? Absolutely feasible.

Not surprisingly, I'll split the difference. I do think the offense improves, if only because it almost has no choice. And I do think the defense will remain competent, if entirely unpredictable and unstable from week to week. Kyle Flood really has recruited well, and I think we'll begin to see that this year; but the Scarlet Knights will probably be too inexperienced to mount any sort of serious threat in the AAC. Like SMU, they're probably a year away from competing at a particularly high level, but I'll set the bar higher for them than SMU.

If four and 10 wins are both possible, we'll say 7-5 seems the most likely. But with seven games versus teams projected between 50th and 67th, the season could go in one direction or another in a hurry.

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