College football's 2013 national title chase: Who's alive, and who's already eliminated?

Let's be as accommodating as possible here.

If we're being practical, only something like five or 10 or 15 college football teams have any sort of realistic national title opportunity this year (or in any other year). But August is no time to be practical.

So every team in the country with the thinnest whisper of a prayer is included here. If a team could blow away everything on its schedule and thus wind up in Pasadena if everything broke right, that team is here. But first, let us wish well a few teams already no longer with us.

Thank you for your contributions

First, the 23 teams that have no chance of winning the national championship this year, based simply on who they play. No matter how hard we squint. I tried to keep this list as short as possible, seeing as nobody likes sadness (for the strength of schedule columns, we're using the projections from the Football Outsiders Almanac 2013):

		SOS (FO Proj.)
	Arkansas State	112
	Ball State	118
	Eastern Michigan	98
	FAU	108
	FIU	113
	Fresno State	105
	Idaho	83
	Louisiana Tech	125
	Louisiana-Lafayette	116
	Marshall	107
	Memphis	100
	Miami (OH)	117
	Middle Tennessee	102
	New Mexico	77
	Ohio	115
	Penn State*	48
	South Alabama	122
	Texas State	119
	Troy	109
	Tulane	123
	UNLV	114
	UTEP	94
	Western Kentucky	121

* Through no fault of Penn State's players or current coaches, of course.

Technically alive

Here we have 42 teams that are mostly ruled out already, but that we can very generously imagine sneaking in due to stars falling in very specific ways. This is a mix of mid-majors with some cachet, lower-tier teams with a couple big names on the schedule, and BCS-conference teams with downright desolate out-of-conference slates.

Many of these teams will already be read their last rites after the season's opening Saturday. We're really stretching the definition of alive for many of these.

		SOS (FO Proj.)
	Air Force	75
	Akron	106
	Army	99
	Boise State	104
	Bowling Green	124
	Buffalo	79
	Central Michigan	110
	Cincinnati	111
	Colorado State	13*
	Duke	82
	East Carolina	103
	Georgia State	19*
	Hawai'i	91
	Houston	97
	Kent State	60
	Maryland	65
	Minnesota	55
	Navy	90
	NC State	84
	Nevada	57
	New Mexico State	80
	North Texas	87
	Northern Illinois	120
	Rice	93
	Rutgers	96
	San Diego State	64
	San Jose State	69
	Southern Miss	70
	Temple	66
	Toledo	68
	Tulsa	86
	UAB	72
	UCF	81
	UConn	95
	ULM	76
	UMass	89
	USF	67
	Utah State	73
	UTSA	92
	Wake Forest	74
	Western Michigan	85
	Wyoming	71

* Skewed, sort of, by games against Alabama. The Tide so surpass every other team in Football Outsiders' projections that their opponents earn all kinds of kudos just for showing up and surviving. Take that game out, and their numbers plummet, but come on: like the whole country wouldn't get behind a 13-0 Rams team that took out Alabama in Tuscaloosa, swept the Mountain West, and beat the Conference USA champ on the road? Even if one of those wins was against Colorado?

Alive, but could use a boost

Here we have eight teams still fully alive for the national title whose schedules might could use some help, if it comes down to it. The Huskers and Buckeyes have the name brands to overcome schedule concerns, but does anybody else here?

Clemson looks like a really odd one here, as it opens against Georgia and closes at South Carolina. But in between those two games is one big morass of ACC and FCS, plus Florida State at home.

Basically, any unbeaten ACC, America, or Big Ten team that doesn't have an OOC win worth bragging about might have to do some politickin'.

		SOS (FO Proj.)
	Pitt	58
	Clemson	59
	Syracuse	61
	Wisconsin	62
	Michigan State	63
	Nebraska	78
	Ohio State	88
	Louisville	101

Totally alive

These still aren't all necessarily win-and-you're-in teams, mind you. For one thing, several of them won't do much winning.

Based on recent history, we've learned only an unbeaten SEC team is guaranteed a spot in the BCS National Championship. That only one conference's perfect teams get to play for the national title is a hilarious thing to say about the country's second-biggest sport, but we only have one more year of this shit.

Oh, sorry. The 52 teams who control as much of their own destinies as it is possible to control:

	Alabama	Georgia Tech	North Carolina	Tennessee
	Arizona	Illinois	Northwestern	Texas
	Arizona State	Indiana	Notre Dame	Texas A&M
	Arkansas	Iowa	Oklahoma	Texas Tech
	Auburn	Iowa State	Oklahoma State	UCLA
	Baylor	Kansas	Ole Miss	USC
	Boston College	Kansas State	Oregon	Utah
	BYU	Kentucky	Oregon State	Vanderbilt
	California	LSU	Purdue	Virginia
	Colorado	Miami	SMU	Virginia Tech
	Florida	Michigan	South Carolina	Washington
	Florida State	Mississippi State	Stanford	Washington State
	Georgia	Missouri	TCU	West Virginia

Your turn! Who's in the wrong spot here?

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