College Football

Simulated 2013 BCS standings, Week 4: Here comes Ohio State

Official BCS rankings won't be released for another few weeks, but putting together the formula's components on our own tell us the Buckeyes are in good shape for now.

By Samuel Chi Sep 16, 2013, 9:02am EDT

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With Johnny Manziel making all the news early and the Pac-12's incompetent refs grabbing the headlines late, a little something else out West kind of went unnoticed. Urban Meyer is plotting a long-awaited rematch with Nick Saban.

We mentioned yesterday that Alabama has a pretty smooth path to the BCS title game after surviving Manziel and Texas A&M on Saturday. But that's nothing compared to Ohio State's red carpet treatment.

After demolishing Cal in Ohio Stadium at Strawberry Canyon with backup QB Kenny Guiton, the Buckeyes are ready to dig into the Big Ten. And judging by how things went for the B1G on Saturday, it looks like the Buckeyes will dominate the conference again.

Ohio State ascended to No. 3 in the latest simulated BCS standings, behind Alabama and Oregon.


Rank	Previous	Team	Coaches	%	AP	%	Md*	CM	JS	KM	RB	CPU Avg.	BCS
1	2	Alabama	1	0.9994	1	0.9993	1	3	2	6	1	0.92	0.9729
2	1	Oregon	2	0.9529	2	0.942	2	4	1	1	2	0.95	0.9483
3	7	Ohio State	3	0.9019	4	0.8867	9	13	17	7	5	0.58	0.7895
4	3	Stanford	5	0.8477	5	0.8273	11	20	11	2	3	0.59	0.755
5	4	Clemson	4	0.8587	3	0.898	5	25	13	12	6	0.48	0.7456
6	5	LSU	7	0.7232	6	0.756	4	14	8	4	7	0.71	0.7297
7	12	Florida State	8	0.7181	8	0.7053	3	15	4	9	14	0.62	0.6811
8	8	Louisville	6	0.7277	7	0.728	17	8	20	13	10	0.44	0.6319
9	13	Oklahoma	12	0.5413	14	0.4613	7	2	9	3	4	0.81	0.6042
10	10	Georgia	10	0.6594	9	0.7007	8		6	21	8	0.41	0.59
11	9	Oklahoma State	11	0.5858	11	0.5653	10	11	5	5	19	0.59	0.5804
12	6	Texas A&M	9	0.6665	10	0.6673	6		7		11	0.34	0.5579
13	17	UCLA	15	0.451	13	0.5047	12	10	10	15	20	0.47	0.4752
14	14	South Carolina	13	0.5232	12	0.5473	14		12	25	9	0.27	0.4469
15	11	Michigan	14	0.4794	15	0.448	18	6		23	12	0.25	0.3925
16	16	Miami (Fla.)	17	0.3606	16	0.4273	20	17	19	22	23	0.2	0.3293
17	15	Northwestern	16	0.3755	18	0.3247	19	19		11	16	0.24	0.3134
18	23	Washington	20	0.2329	17	0.3307	16	5	23	14	24	0.27	0.2779
19	21	Baylor	19	0.2419	20	0.2367	13		3	10	22	0.33	0.2695
20	20	Florida	18	0.2568	19	0.2747	21		14		25	0.06	0.1971
21	26	Ole Miss	22	0.1955	21	0.2	22	24	22	20		0.1	0.1652
22	19	Notre Dame	21	0.2135	22	0.1847				17	13	0.09	0.1627
23	28	Arizona State	23	0.1135	23	0.1527	15	23	21	19		0.15	0.1387
24	36	Arizona	32	0.0187	32	0.0073	23	16	16	16		0.23	0.0853
25	29	Texas Tech	28	0.0316	25	0.04		12	24	18	21	0.15	0.0739
26	40	Georgia Tech	29	0.0239	30	0.0113	24		15	8		0.13	0.0551
27	31	Michigan State	24	0.0845	26	0.0393				24		0	0.0413
28	45	Central Florida	31	0.0213	28	0.0167		7			18	0.08	0.0393
29	18	Wisconsin	27	0.0342	24	0.058	25		18			0.01	0.0341
30	33	Fresno State	25	0.0484	27	0.018		18				0	0.0221
31	22	Nebraska	26	0.0355	31	0.01						0	0.0152
32	37	Northern Illinois	33	0.0168	29	0.016					15	0	0.0109
33	42	Arkansas	30	0.0219	37	0.0013		21				0	0.0078
34	27	Auburn	34	0.0097	33	0.006		1				0	0.0052
35	39	Virginia Tech	35	0.0058	35	0.002						0	0.0026
36	47	Boise State	39	0.0032	34	0.0027						0	0.002
37	38	BYU	36	0.0052		0						0	0.0017
38	48	USC	37	0.0045		0						0	0.0015
39	41	Kansas State	38	0.0039		0						0	0.0013
40	49	Utah State	39	0.0032		0						0	0.0011
41	24	TCU		0	35	0.002			25			0	0.0007
42	51	Rutgers	41	0.0013		0						0	0.0004
43	NR	Navy		0	38	0.0007		9				0	0.0002
44	55	San Jose State		0		0					17	0	0
45	52	Colorado		0		0		22				0	0

Keys: Md = Median ranking of 31 computer ratings; CM = Colley Matrix; JS = Jeff Sagarin; KM = Kenneth Massey; RB = Richard Billingsley; CPU Avg. = Computer Average.

Explanation: This rankings method is a simulation of the actual BCS standings with the following variations: 1) The AP Poll is used in place of the Harris Interactive Poll, which is not published until after the first weekend of October; 2) Four of the six BCS computer ratings are available - Colley Matrix, Jeff Sagarin, Kenneth Massey and Richard Billingsley; 3) The other two computer ratings - Anderson & Hester and Peter Wolfe - will not be available until late-September or October, so they're replaced by the median ranking of 31 computer ratings.

^ Penn State is ineligible for inclusion in official BCS standings.

The Buckeyes now are in the on-deck circle, but they'd probably need more than a loss by either team to get into the BCS title game. They're likely to get leapfrogged by Stanford if the Cardinal defeat the Ducks to win the Pac-12 North, and they will also get jumped by LSU if the Tigers upset the Tide.

Still, finishing undefeated this season will yield considerable rewards for the Buckeyes, no matter what happens anywhere else. For now, all Ohio State can do is run roughshod over the Big Ten and keep Meyer unbeaten (15-0 and counting). To be sure, Meyer is eager for another shot at Saban, and this time, it'd be for something bigger than the SEC championship (as hard as that is to believe).

Week 4's BCS impact games

Rankings in simulated BCS standings.

No. 23 Arizona State at No. 4 Stanford (7 p.m. ET, FOX): Yes, we have mentioned that September scheduling in the BCS era is a wasteland, and this is the game of the week simply because it's the only game matching up top 25 teams (and barely at that). Todd Graham got away with very poor late-game management against Wisconsin thanks to the Pac-12's even more incompetent officials. He won't be so lucky on the Farm.

Auburn at No. 6 LSU (7:45 p.m., ESPN): The top-ranked Tigers -- Auburn, that is, according to the Colley Matrix -- are a surprising 3-0 after rallying past Mississippi State last week. But they're not quite ready to challenge the Bayou Bengals, who have their eye on the No. 1 rankings that really matters.

Boise State at Fresno State (9 p.m. Friday, ESPN): The catastrophic flooding in Colorado forced the postponement of Fresno State's game in Boulder last week, and now the Bulldogs will be playing perhaps the biggest game in program history with nearly two weeks off. A win here may very well position Fresno State for a run at a BCS at-large berth. The Broncos are finding themselves in the unfamiliar position of playing the spoiler.

Kansas State at Texas (8 p.m., ABC): Mack Brown says his team can still win the Big 12. We might need only one game to find out. Defending Big 12 co-champ K-State is trying to claw out of the embarrassment of losing to FCS North Dakota State in the season opener, and it won't be in the mood to take it easy on the Longhorns.

No. 5 Clemson at NC State (7:30 p.m. Thursday, ESPN): A year ago, Florida State blew whatever slim BCS chances it had by losing early at NC State. Will it happen to Clemson? Those Thursday night games can produce some very strange outcomes.