2013 bowl projections, Week 6: Bama-Oregon more solid, Sooners charge into BCS

Last week, the dream national championship matchup looked like a little bit less of a sure thing. Back on course?

By Jason Kirk Sep 29, 2013, 12:50pm EDT

The Big 12 was our most wide-open conference entering 2013. Five teams out of 10 looked like serious contenders for the league title, a far higher percentage than any other conference. With that number now thinned, the whole national picture becomes more clear.

Oklahoma at Baylor on Nov. 7 now projects to be the conference's closest thing to a championship game, assuming no major upsets along the way. (There will be major upsets along the way. All is meaningless.) The winner of that game should have an excellent shot at securing the conference's Fiesta Bowl tie, while the loser could still be in the running for a BCS at-large spot. I think that'll happen.

Elsewhere, Alabama put together its most complete win of the season, 25-0 over No. 21 Ole Miss, while Oregon did to Cal what it's done to everyone else. The updated bowl projections lineup:


	Bowl	Selection (not always official order)	Team	Team
1/6/2014	BCS National Championship (Pasadena)	BCS 1 vs. BCS 2	Alabama	Oregon
1/3/2014	Orange (Miami)	ACC 1 vs. At-large 1	Clemson	Oklahoma
1/2/2014	Sugar (New Orleans)	SEC 1 vs. At-large 2	Georgia	Florida State
1/1/2014	Rose (Pasadena)	Pac-12 1 vs. Big Ten 1 (At-large 3)	Ohio State	Stanford
1/1/2014	Fiesta (Glendale, AZ)	Big 12 1 vs. At-large 4	Baylor	Louisville
1/5/2014	GoDaddy (Mobile, AL)	MAC 2 vs. Sun Belt 2	Bowling Green	Western Kentucky
1/4/2014	BBVA Compass (B'ham)	SEC 9 vs. AAC 5	Vanderbilt	Cincinnati
1/3/2014	Cotton (Arlington)	Big 12 2 vs. SEC 3	Oklahoma State	LSU
1/1/2014	Capital One (Orlando)	Big Ten 2 vs. SEC 2	Northwestern	Texas A&M
1/1/2014	Gator (Jacksonville)	Big Ten 4 vs. SEC 6	Michigan	Ole Miss
1/1/2014	Heart of Dallas	Big Ten 7 vs. Big 12 8	Iowa	Notre Dame*
1/1/2014	Outback (Tampa)	Big Ten 3 vs. SEC 4	Wisconsin	South Carolina
12/31/2013	Chick-fil-A (Atlanta)	ACC 2 vs. SEC 5	Virginia Tech	Florida
12/31/2013	Independence (Shreveport)	SEC 10 vs. ACC 7	Toledo*	NC State
12/31/2013	Liberty (Memphis)	C-USA 1 vs. SEC 8	East Carolina	Missouri
12/31/2013	Sun (El Paso)	ACC 4 vs. Pac-12 4	Maryland	Wasington
12/30/2013	Alamo (San Antonio)	Big 12 3 vs. Pac-12 2	Texas Tech	UCLA
12/30/2013	Armed Forces (Ft. Worth)	MWC 3 vs. C-USA 3/Navy	Boise State	Navy
12/30/2013	Holiday (San Diego)	Pac-12 3 vs. Big 12 5	Arizona State	West Virginia
12/30/2013	Music City (Nashville)	ACC 6 vs. SEC 7	Pitt	Auburn
12/28/2013	Belk (Charlotte)	AAC 3 vs. ACC 5	Houston	Georgia Tech
12/28/2013	Buffalo Wild Wings (PHX)	Big 12 4 vs. Big Ten 5	TCU	Nebraska
12/28/2013	Pinstripe (New York)	Big 12 7 vs. AAC 4	Buffalo*	Rutgers
12/28/2013	Russell Athletic (Orlando)	AAC 2 vs. ACC 3	UCF	Miami
12/27/2013	Kraft (San Francisco)	Pac-12 6 vs. BYU/ACC 9	Oregon State	BYU
12/27/2013	Military (Annapolis)	ACC 8 vs. C-USA 5	Ball State*	Middle Tennessee
12/27/2013	Texas (Houston)	Big 12 6 vs. Big Ten 6	Kansas State	Michigan State
12/26/2013	Little Caesars (Detroit)	MAC 1 vs. Big Ten 8	Northern Illinois	Texas State*
12/26/2013	Poinsettia (San Diego)	MWC 2 vs. Army	Fresno State	Rice*
12/24/2013	Hawaii	MWC 5 vs. C-USA 2	San Jose State	Marshall
12/23/2013	Beef O'Brady's (St. Pete.)	AAC 6 vs. C-USA 4	?	North Texas
12/21/2013	Idaho Potato (Boise)	MAC 3 vs. MWC 6	Ohio	Troy*
12/21/2013	Las Vegas	MWC 1 vs. Pac-12 5	Utah State	Arizona
12/21/2013	New Mexico (Albuquerque)	MWC 4 vs. Pac-12 7	Wyoming	Utah
12/21/2013	New Orleans	Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA 6	Louisiana-Lafayette	Tulane

More: New AP Top 25 Lane Kiffin fired

*: Team taking bid from another conference that couldn't fill its spots. Notre Dame is included because it has no tie at all this year.

?: You tell me who else is getting six wins.

Bowl slots aren't always about conference standing. Bowls and conferences will choose the matchups they expect to bring in the most money, whether that means rewarding the team that finished with the better record or not.

BCS bowls

Same story as last week. Both Alabama and Oregon look even more like national championship material, and the rest of the BCS picks play out similarly. The only question here is whether the Rose would go for a one-loss Oklahoma over its traditional conference ties to the Pac-12, for a matchup between two titanic fan bases and brand names, but let's say it sticks with Stanford for now.

On the move

Among other arrivals and exits and adjustments, USC and Texas are both out. USC for obvious reasons, and Texas because I don't really see a full six wins on that schedule. Oregon State and Utah are here to fortify the Pac-12, with West Virginia all of a sudden looking like a good bet for a bowl after its Oklahoma State takedown. Preseason Sun Belt favorite ULM is also out, replaced by the team it just lost to: Tulane.

The non-BCS big riser this week is Virginia Tech, which is up after showing its defense is good enough to beat anybody on its schedule. Miami swapping out of the Chick-fil-A also means a boost for Florida, since there's no Miami-Florida rematch to avoid. Hokies-Gators will amount to negative-300 points. Why did you do this to us, Virginia Tech?

Best games

Please help us figure this one out. Put me down for Wyoming-Utah in New Mexico, the best way I know of to honor the demise of Walter White's Southwestern meth empire.