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2013 bowl projections, Week 6: Bama-Oregon more solid, Sooners charge into BCS

Last week, the dream national championship matchup looked like a little bit less of a sure thing. Back on course?

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The Big 12 was our most wide-open conference entering 2013. Five teams out of 10 looked like serious contenders for the league title, a far higher percentage than any other conference. With that number now thinned, the whole national picture becomes more clear.

Oklahoma at Baylor on Nov. 7 now projects to be the conference's closest thing to a championship game, assuming no major upsets along the way. (There will be major upsets along the way. All is meaningless.) The winner of that game should have an excellent shot at securing the conference's Fiesta Bowl tie, while the loser could still be in the running for a BCS at-large spot. I think that'll happen.

Elsewhere, Alabama put together its most complete win of the season, 25-0 over No. 21 Ole Miss, while Oregon did to Cal what it's done to everyone else. The updated bowl projections lineup:

Bowl Selection (not always official order) Team Team
1/6/2014 BCS National Championship (Pasadena) BCS 1 vs. BCS 2 Alabama Oregon
1/3/2014 Orange (Miami) ACC 1 vs. At-large 1 Clemson Oklahoma
1/2/2014 Sugar (New Orleans) SEC 1 vs. At-large 2 Georgia Florida State
1/1/2014 Rose (Pasadena) Pac-12 1 vs. Big Ten 1 (At-large 3) Ohio State Stanford
1/1/2014 Fiesta (Glendale, AZ) Big 12 1 vs. At-large 4 Baylor Louisville
1/5/2014 GoDaddy (Mobile, AL) MAC 2 vs. Sun Belt 2 Bowling Green Western Kentucky
1/4/2014 BBVA Compass (B'ham) SEC 9 vs. AAC 5 Vanderbilt Cincinnati
1/3/2014 Cotton (Arlington) Big 12 2 vs. SEC 3 Oklahoma State LSU
1/1/2014 Capital One (Orlando) Big Ten 2 vs. SEC 2 Northwestern Texas A&M
1/1/2014 Gator (Jacksonville) Big Ten 4 vs. SEC 6 Michigan Ole Miss
1/1/2014 Heart of Dallas Big Ten 7 vs. Big 12 8 Iowa Notre Dame*
1/1/2014 Outback (Tampa) Big Ten 3 vs. SEC 4 Wisconsin South Carolina
12/31/2013 Chick-fil-A (Atlanta) ACC 2 vs. SEC 5 Virginia Tech Florida
12/31/2013 Independence (Shreveport) SEC 10 vs. ACC 7 Toledo* NC State
12/31/2013 Liberty (Memphis) C-USA 1 vs. SEC 8 East Carolina Missouri
12/31/2013 Sun (El Paso) ACC 4 vs. Pac-12 4 Maryland Wasington
12/30/2013 Alamo (San Antonio) Big 12 3 vs. Pac-12 2 Texas Tech UCLA
12/30/2013 Armed Forces (Ft. Worth) MWC 3 vs. C-USA 3/Navy Boise State Navy
12/30/2013 Holiday (San Diego) Pac-12 3 vs. Big 12 5 Arizona State West Virginia
12/30/2013 Music City (Nashville) ACC 6 vs. SEC 7 Pitt Auburn
12/28/2013 Belk (Charlotte) AAC 3 vs. ACC 5 Houston Georgia Tech
12/28/2013 Buffalo Wild Wings (PHX) Big 12 4 vs. Big Ten 5 TCU Nebraska
12/28/2013 Pinstripe (New York) Big 12 7 vs. AAC 4 Buffalo* Rutgers
12/28/2013 Russell Athletic (Orlando) AAC 2 vs. ACC 3 UCF Miami
12/27/2013 Kraft (San Francisco) Pac-12 6 vs. BYU/ACC 9 Oregon State BYU
12/27/2013 Military (Annapolis) ACC 8 vs. C-USA 5 Ball State* Middle Tennessee
12/27/2013 Texas (Houston) Big 12 6 vs. Big Ten 6 Kansas State Michigan State
12/26/2013 Little Caesars (Detroit) MAC 1 vs. Big Ten 8 Northern Illinois Texas State*
12/26/2013 Poinsettia (San Diego) MWC 2 vs. Army Fresno State Rice*
12/24/2013 Hawaii MWC 5 vs. C-USA 2 San Jose State Marshall
12/23/2013 Beef O'Brady's (St. Pete.) AAC 6 vs. C-USA 4 ? North Texas
12/21/2013 Idaho Potato (Boise) MAC 3 vs. MWC 6 Ohio Troy*
12/21/2013 Las Vegas MWC 1 vs. Pac-12 5 Utah State Arizona
12/21/2013 New Mexico (Albuquerque) MWC 4 vs. Pac-12 7 Wyoming Utah
12/21/2013 New Orleans Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA 6 Louisiana-Lafayette Tulane

*: Team taking bid from another conference that couldn't fill its spots. Notre Dame is included because it has no tie at all this year.

?: You tell me who else is getting six wins.

Bowl slots aren't always about conference standing. Bowls and conferences will choose the matchups they expect to bring in the most money, whether that means rewarding the team that finished with the better record or not.

BCS bowls

Same story as last week. Both Alabama and Oregon look even more like national championship material, and the rest of the BCS picks play out similarly. The only question here is whether the Rose would go for a one-loss Oklahoma over its traditional conference ties to the Pac-12, for a matchup between two titanic fan bases and brand names, but let's say it sticks with Stanford for now.

On the move

Among other arrivals and exits and adjustments, USC and Texas are both out. USC for obvious reasons, and Texas because I don't really see a full six wins on that schedule. Oregon State and Utah are here to fortify the Pac-12, with West Virginia all of a sudden looking like a good bet for a bowl after its Oklahoma State takedown. Preseason Sun Belt favorite ULM is also out, replaced by the team it just lost to: Tulane.

The non-BCS big riser this week is Virginia Tech, which is up after showing its defense is good enough to beat anybody on its schedule. Miami swapping out of the Chick-fil-A also means a boost for Florida, since there's no Miami-Florida rematch to avoid. Hokies-Gators will amount to negative-300 points. Why did you do this to us, Virginia Tech?

Best games

Please help us figure this one out. Put me down for Wyoming-Utah in New Mexico, the best way I know of to honor the demise of Walter White's Southwestern meth empire.

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