College Football

Projected 2013 BCS standings, Week 3: Oregon tops Alabama, but watch out for Michigan

Don't worry about the Tide. But do keep an eye on the Wolverines. Though the BCS won't officially release standings until later in the college football season, we know what they'd look like if they came out right now. Full standings below.

By Samuel Chi Sep 9, 2013, 11:14am EDT

The Michigan-Notre Dame rivalry is going away after next year. It's probably not coming back for a long, long time. Say what you will about the two winningest programs in college football history, but their annual clash has never gone unnoticed, and it's always had an outsized impact.

A year ago, Notre Dame buried Michigan under an avalanche of turnovers, and the 13-6 victory propelled the Irish to a 12-0 regular season and a spot in the BCS championship game. It's arguable that had Denard Robinson not turned the ball over five times all by himself, there would not have been a Notre Dame renaissance and a contract extension for coach Brian Kelly.

Could their thrilling 41-30 victory this year have a similar trampoline effect for the Wolverines? You bet.

Michigan closed in on the top 10 in the polls on Sunday and now checks in at No. 11 in the latest simulated BCS standings. A year ago, Notre Dame jumped up to No. 9 in the simulated standings after its Week 4 victory over Michigan.

More: Bowl projections update Spencer Hall's top 25 review


Rank	Pvs	Team	Coaches	%	AP	%	Md*	CM	JS	KM	PW	RB	Cp Avg	BCS
1	2	Oregon	2	0.9335	2	0.9233	2	1	2	1		2	0.97	0.9423
2	1	Alabama	1	0.9968	1	0.996	1		1			3	0.48	0.8243
3	4	Stanford	4	0.8561	5	0.8473	3		4	18		1	0.53	0.7445
4	3	Clemson	5	0.8432	3	0.888	7	10	17			4	0.44	0.7237
5	8	LSU	8	0.6884	8	0.7167	5	14	5	8		9	0.68	0.695
6	7	Texas A&M	6	0.8013	6	0.7553	4	11	8	24		10	0.51	0.6889
7	6	Ohio State	3	0.9219	4	0.8847	10		19			7	0.23	0.6789
8	14	Louisville	7	0.7232	7	0.7367	16	12	13			11	0.37	0.61
9	13	Oklahoma State	11	0.5587	12	0.556	11	5	7	4		18	0.63	0.5816
10	11	Georgia	10	0.6587	9	0.6907	8		6			5	0.38	0.5765
11	17	Michigan	12	0.5548	11	0.5813	12	8	14	10		12	0.56	0.5654
12	9	Florida State	9	0.671	10	0.674	6		10	23		14	0.31	0.5517
13	15	Oklahoma	13	0.5161	14	0.45	9	3	9	20		6	0.6	0.522
14	5	South Carolina	14	0.5084	13	0.5527	13		12			8	0.27	0.4437
15	18	Northwestern	16	0.3052	17	0.3013	19	18		2		15	0.26	0.2888
16	27	Miami (Fla.)	18	0.2935	15	0.41	23	21	23			20	0.11	0.2712
17	19	UCLA	17	0.3039	16	0.3253	20		15	11			0.17	0.2664
18	20	Wisconsin	18	0.2935	20	0.252	18	16	11				0.18	0.2418
19	12	Notre Dame	21	0.2245	21	0.222	14		18			13	0.2	0.2155
20	10	Florida	20	0.45	18	0.27	17		20			21	0.11	0.2148
21	21	Baylor	22	0.1916	22	0.1967	15		3			19	0.18	0.1894
22	22	Nebraska	15	0.3084	23	0.1847	24	24		13		24	0.06	0.1844
23	24	Washington	23	0.1632	19	0.2613	21		21	6		25	0.11	0.1782
24	25	TCU	24	0.1258	24	0.1133			22				0	0.0797
25	NR	Utah	43	0.0013		0		4		3			0.22	0.0738
26	26	Ole Miss	25	0.0587	25	0.052		15		9			0.11	0.0736
27	NR	Auburn		0		0		6		5			0.2	0.0667
28	29	Arizona State	28	0.031	26	0.0427	22		16	25			0.05	0.0412
29	39	Texas Tech	36	0.0045		0		19		17		23	0.1	0.0348
30	NR	NC State		0		0		9		16			0.1	0.0333
31	36	Michigan State	26	0.0477	27	0.0173							0	0.0217
32	NR	Tennessee	43	0.0013	39	0.0007		20		19			0.06	0.0207
33	37	Fresno State	27	0.0381	27	0.0173		7					0	0.0185
34	NR	Illinois	40	0.0019	34	0.006		22		15			0.04	0.016
35	16	Texas	29	0.0245	27	0.0173							0	0.0139
36	41	Arizona	31	0.0135	34	0.006			24	7			0.02	0.0132
37	30	Northern Illinois	30	0.0174	30	0.014						16	0	0.0105
38	NR	BYU	32	0.0116	32	0.0093							0	0.007
39	35	Virginia Tech	35	0.0052	31	0.01							0	0.0051
40	40	Georgia Tech	34	0.0077	33	0.0067							0	0.0048
41	34	Kansas State	40	0.0019		0	25					22	0.01	0.004
42	42	Arkansas	33	0.0103		0		25					0	0.0034
43	43	Bowling Green	40	0.0019	35	0.0047		2					0	0.0022
44	28	Penn State ^		0	35	0.0047							0	0.0016
45	44	Central Florida	37	0.0039		0		23					0	0.0013
46	46	East Carolina	37	0.0039		0							0	0.0013
47	33	Boise State	43	0.0013	38	0.002			25				0	0.0011
48	23	USC	39	0.0032		0							0	0.0011
49	46	Utah State	43	0.0013		0							0	0.0004
50	NR	Boston College	47	0.0006		0		17					0	0.0002
51	NR	Rutgers	47	0.0006		0							0	0.0002
52	NR	Colorado		0		0				12			0	0
53	NR	Ball State		0		0		13					0	0
54	NR	Washington State		0		0				14			0	0
55	32	San Jose State		0		0						17	0	0
56	NR	Duke		0		0				21			0	0
57	NR	Minnesota		0		0				22			0	0

Keys: Pvs = Previous Week; Coaches = USA Today Coaches Poll; AP = Associated Press Top 25; Md = Median ranking of 26 computer ratings; CM = Colley Matrix; JS = Jeff Sagarin; KM = Kenneth Massey; RB = Richard Billingsley; Cp Avg = Computer Average.

Explanation: This rankings method is a simulation of the actual BCS standings, with the following variations: 1) The AP Poll is used in place of the Harris Interactive Poll, which is not published until after the first weekend of October; 2) Four of the six BCS computer ratings are available - Colley Matrix, Jeff Sagarin, Kenneth Massey and Richard Billingsley; 3) The other two computer ratings - Anderson & Hester and Peter Wolfe - will not be available until late-September or October, so they're replaced by the median ranking of 26 computer ratings.

^ Penn State is ineligible for inclusion in official BCS standings.

A soft stretch of games now awaits the Wolverines, who likely won't be challenged again until a brutal November that could feature games against four ranked teams. But by then Michigan could be riding on a crest of momentum with a 7-0 record, similar to how Notre Dame cracked the top five when the first official standings were released in Week 7 and stayed there for the duration.

The improved play by the Big Ten, which went 11-1 on Saturday, will help the conference's top dogs, which besides Michigan include No. 7 Ohio State, No. 18 Wisconsin, No. 22 Nebraska and upstart Northwestern, off to a 2-0 start and checking in at No. 15. The way the schedule is shaping up, don't be surprised if another traditional rivalry matchup -- this one not going anywhere -- has heavy BCS implications. Ohio State visits the Big House on Nov. 30, and it's even possible that those two teams will have a rematch a week later in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title and, potentially, a spot in the BCS title game.

Week 3's BCS impact

But before we get there, we have a rare September showdown that has so much hype and impact it makes last week's Michigan-Notre Dame matchup seem, oh, so JV-ish. We'll just give it a mention, among other key BCS games in Week 3 (rankings in simulated BCS standings):

No. 2 Alabama at No. 6 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS): With two more BCS computer rankings available now, Oregon jumped Alabama as the new No. 1 team for the time being. But until the two-time defending champs lose a game, the Tide will still be everybody's No. 1. As long as the game is close, the loser will not be out of the race for the BCS title. And despite all his offseason travails, Johnny Manziel seems to be in fine form after 1.5 games.

No. 17 UCLA at No. 22 Nebraska (Noon, ABC): The Bruins are flying under the radar, but they might be one of the best teams in the country. With crosstown rival USC imploding already, UCLA looks to be the odds-on favorite to win the Pac-12 South. An emphatic win in Lincoln will go a long way toward burnishing its national credentials.

No. 19 Notre Dame at Purdue (8 p.m., ABC): Despite the dispiriting loss at Michigan, Notre Dame is not out of the running for a BCS bowl. The Irish will need to bounce back quickly, and they must take a near-sure thing when they can -- such as this one -- because the rest of the schedule isn't going to get any easier.

Vanderbilt at No. 14 South Carolina (7 p.m. ESPN): South Carolina had the biggest tumble, dropping nine spots in the simulated standings after a hard-fought loss to Georgia. The SEC East title is still very much within their grasp, but the Gamecocks can't afford to overlook a Vandy team that might be dealing with some off-the-field distractions.

No. 23 Washington vs. Illinois at Chicago (6 p.m., BTN): This will be one of four games pitting Big Ten and Pac-12 teams on Saturday and, as both conferences harbor hopes of sending a team to the BCS title game, every little bit matters. Both the Huskies (with a win over Boise State) and Illini (2-0) are off to surprisingly good starts and will want to keep things rolling.