Just two Top 25 teams lost in Week 9, but one of them was a big one: Ole Miss, previously ranked No. 3 in the AP, fell to LSU, opening a top-four spot for the taking. Alabama has snatched that spot in both polls, with Mississippi State hanging on to the top.
Below, we've combined the two big human polls with two well-known computer rankings to produce a composite. It might be the best guess out there as to how the selection committee is thinking, heading into its first rankings release at 7:30 p.m. ET Tuesday night, with one exception: there's almost no way the committee will declare four SEC teams to be the country's best. The real best guess, then, might be drop a few of those top SEC teams. Expect Mississippi State and Florida State to be the committee's top two, with Michigan State, Oregon, TCU, and several SEC teams among the next bunch.
For now, here are the composite rankings:
Composite | Average | AP | Coaches | F/+ | Massey | ||
1 | Mississippi State | 2.25 | 1 | Mississippi State | Mississippi State | Ole Miss | Alabama |
2 | Alabama | 2.5 | 2 | Florida State | Florida State | Auburn | Ole Miss |
3 | Auburn | 3.5 | 3 | Alabama | Alabama | Alabama | Mississippi State |
4 | Ole Miss | 4.75 | 4 | Auburn | Auburn | Mississippi State | Auburn |
5 | Florida State | 5 | 5 | Oregon | Michigan State | Oregon | Florida State |
6 | Oregon | 5.75 | 6 | Notre Dame | Oregon | Oklahoma | Georgia |
7 | Michigan State | 8.5 | 7 | Ole Miss | Notre Dame | TCU | Oregon |
8 | Georgia | 9.25 | 8 | Michigan State | Georgia | Ohio State | LSU |
8 | TCU | 9.25 | 9 | Georgia | Ole Miss | Clemson | Kansas State |
10 | Notre Dame | 11.75 | 10 | TCU | TCU | Michigan State | TCU |
11 | Kansas State | 12 | 11 | Kansas State | Kansas State | Florida State | Michigan State |
12 | LSU | 13.25 | 12 | Baylor | Baylor | LSU | Oklahoma |
13 | Ohio State | 13.75 | 13 | Ohio State | Ohio State | Nebraska | Arizona State |
14 | Oklahoma | 14.25 | 14 | Arizona | Arizona State | Georgia | Baylor |
15 | Baylor | 14.5 | 15 | Arizona State | Arizona | Louisville | Notre Dame |
16 | Arizona State | 15 | 16 | LSU | Nebraska | Miami | Clemson |
17 | Nebraska | 15.75 | 17 | Nebraska | LSU | Kansas State | Nebraska |
18 | Clemson | 17 | 18 | Utah | Utah | Arizona State | Texas A&M |
19 | Arizona | 19 | 19 | Oklahoma | East Carolina | Notre Dame | West Virginia |
20 | West Virginia | 21.5 | 20 | West Virginia | Oklahoma | Baylor | Arizona |
21 | Utah | 23 | 21 | East Carolina | Clemson | Stanford | Ohio State |
22 | Marshall | 23.75 | 22 | Clemson | West Virginia | Marshall | UCLA |
23 | UCLA | 24 | 23 | Marshall | Marshall | USC | Missouri |
24 | Duke | 27 | 24 | Duke | Duke | UCLA | Utah |
25 | East Carolina | 30.25 | 25 | UCLA | UCLA | West Virginia | USC |
The four rankings we use:
The Associated Press Top 25: The longest-running and best-respected human poll. Didn't have any official bearing on the latter years of the BCS, and won't have any official bearing on the Playoff. Expect it to set the course for the committee, however, as most outlets (including SB Nation) will use the AP's rankings as the standard until the committee takes over in late October. Usually comes out Sundays around 2 p.m. ET.
The USA Today Coaches Poll: Formerly part of the BCS, and now just a poll. It tends to be more conservative than the AP's. Though polling athletic departments in order to rank other athletic departments is dubious, we still want multiple human polls in here, and it's the other big one. Releases early Sunday afternoons.
The Massey Rating: An early-Sunday computer ranking. This is not the Massey formula the BCS used, which excluded margin of victory.
Football Outsiders' F/+ rating: A synthesis of ratings by smart persons Bill Connelly and Brian Fremeau and our personal go-to overall team stat. It tends to come out later than the others.
Last week's composite Top 25:
Composite | Average | AP | Coaches | F/+ | Massey | ||
1 | Ole Miss | 2 | 1 | Mississippi State | Mississippi State | Ole Miss | Ole Miss |
2 | Mississippi State | 3 | 2 | Florida State | Florida State | Oklahoma | Alabama |
3 | Alabama | 3.25 | 3 | Ole Miss | Ole Miss | Alabama | Auburn |
4 | Auburn | 4.75 | 4 | Alabama | Alabama | TCU | Mississippi State |
4 | Florida State | 4.75 | 5 | Auburn | Michigan State | Auburn | Florida State |
6 | Oregon | 6.75 | 6 | Oregon | Auburn | Mississippi State | Georgia |
7 | TCU | 8 | 7 | Notre Dame | Oregon | Oregon | Oregon |
8 | Georgia | 8.25 | 8 | Michigan State | Notre Dame | Ohio State | TCU |
9 | Michigan State | 10 | 9 | Georgia | Georgia | Georgia | Michigan State |
10 | Notre Dame | 11.25 | 10 | TCU | TCU | Florida State | Kansas State |
11 | Oklahoma | 12.25 | 11 | Kansas State | Kansas State | Clemson | Notre Dame |
12 | Ohio State | 12.75 | 12 | Baylor | Ohio State | UCLA | Oklahoma |
13 | Baylor | 13 | 13 | Ohio State | Baylor | Arizona State | Baylor |
14 | Kansas State | 13.75 | 14 | Arizona State | Arizona State | Baylor | Clemson |
15 | Arizona State | 14.25 | 15 | Arizona | Arizona | Louisville | LSU |
16 | Clemson | 16.5 | 16 | Nebraska | Nebraska | Marshall | Arizona State |
17 | Nebraska | 17.25 | 17 | Oklahoma | East Carolina | Nebraska | Texas A&M |
18 | Arizona | 20.5 | 18 | East Carolina | Oklahoma | Michigan State | Ohio State |
19 | Utah | 20.75 | 19 | Utah | Utah | Notre Dame | UCLA |
20 | UCLA | 21 | 20 | USC | Clemson | Virginia Tech | Nebraska |
20 | USC | 21 | 21 | Clemson | USC | USC | Missouri |
22 | Marshall | 22 | 22 | West Virginia | Marshall | West Virginia | USC |
23 | LSU | 22.25 | 23 | Marshall | LSU | Kansas State | Arizona |
24 | West Virginia | 23.25 | 24 | LSU | Minnesota | Duke | West Virginia |
25 | East Carolina | 26.5 | 25 | UCLA | West Virginia | Georgia Tech | Utah |