A 10-9 Week 12 brings me to 111-105, -$515 as we enter Week 12. This week features some of interesting games, and motivation and valuation will be key elements to the wagers. All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
1. San Jose State at Utah State -13: Utah State is really well coached by Matt Wells, and San Jose State starting QB Joe Gray is doubtful.
2. UTEP +8 at Rice: UTEP continued to put things together against North Texas last weekend, and the momentum should continue Friday.
3. USC at UCLA -3: The Bruins are getting their act together, and Brett Hundley is running more frequently now than he was earlier in the season, when he was banged up. USC has struggled against mobile quarterbacks a couple times, and Hundley's legs will be the difference.
4 and 5. Arizona at Utah -5 AND Under 56.5: The Utes are playing consistently excellent defense, and Arizona's offense has ground to a halt of late. The Wildcats are a bit overrated due to their 5-1 record in single-score games.
6. Wisconsin at Iowa +10: Could the Badgers' stock get any higher after Melvin Gordon set the all-time single-game FBS rushing record in just three quarters? No, and this is a bet against the Wisconsin hype more than it is one on the Hawkeyes.
7. Minnesota at Nebraska -10: Could Nebraska's stock get any lower after allowing Melvin Gordon to set the all-time single-game FBS rushing record in just three quarters? No. Nebraska offense bounces back at home.
8. Louisville at Notre Dame Under 54: Louisville is off a bye week, but without QB Will Gardner. Notre Dame's defense has been struggling, as has its offense. Louisville's defense is by far the best unit on the field and will keep this ugly.
9. Ole Miss -3 (-115) at Arkansas: The Rebels have not played an FBS game since losing at home to Auburn. Can Arkansas handle success after finally winning an SEC game last weekend? Ole Miss should be healthier after the time off and ready to play.
10. Miami at Virginia Under 49.5: Both of these defenses are considerably better than their respective offenses, even if the numbers don't show it.
11 and 12. Vanderbilt +31 at Mississippi State AND Under 52.5: The Commodores play OK defense. The Bulldogs are coming off one of the biggest losses in the history of the program, and have a major lookahead spot next week in the Egg Bowl. MSU is so dependent on quarterback Dak Prescott to score, and given that he has already been injured once this season, it's hard to believe Dan Mullen will leave him in the lineup for too long.
13. Washington State at Arizona State -16.5: The Sun Devils were embarrassed last weekend at Oregon State, and should come out fired up this weekend against a Cougars team starting backup freshman QB Luke Falk.
14. Colorado +34 at Oregon: The Ducks know that if they keep winning, they are in the Playoff. But where is the incentive to blow out lowly Colorado by more than 34?
15. Northwestern at Purdue pick 'em: This is a bet against the overreaction to the Wildcats' win over Notre Dame. Purdue is not a good team, but is somewhat undervalued.
16. Virginia Tech at Wake Forest +15: Wake Forest has two extra days to prep for this, having played on Thursday. The Demon Deacons play good defense, and I wouldn't lay over two touchdowns on the traveling Hokies with your money.
17. Syracuse at Pitt -7: I'm skeptical that Syracuse can take advantage of Pitt's defense the way North Carolina did.
18. Kansas at Oklahoma -24.5: This number is begging to take the Jayhawks, who just played TCU very close. So I'll step around the trap and take the Sooners.
19. Maryland at Michigan Under 43: The injuries to Maryland's offense keep piling up, and the Wolverines play solid defense at home.
20. Boston College at Florida State -19 (-105): Boston College is coming off a bye, and this is a major sandwich game for the Seminoles, coming off Miami and having the Gators on deck. At the same time, BC's defense is not very good, and it struggles to throw the football.
21. Stanford -5.5 at Cal: Could Stanford's stock get any lower? I'm not sure, so this is buying low after everyone has sold high.