With the college football regular season wrapped up, we compared this year's results to the preseason expectations from the sportsbook 5Dimes. The top and bottom of the list have some obvious names.
Air Force, Georgia Southern, Memphis, UTEP and Western Michigan were the biggest overachievers this year, finishing 4.5 wins above expectations. The biggest overachievers from the power conferences were TCU, Georgia Tech and Arizona, tied and 3.5 wins above expectations. Another surprising name at the top of the overachievers? UAB. The university dropped football despite the Blazers finishing tied at 13th nationally with 2.5 wins above Vegas' expectations.
One-win SMU was the biggest underachiever in college football this year, finishing with 4.5 fewer wins than expected. However, South Carolina was the biggest underachiever of the power-conference teams, with 3.5 wins below its preseason projection. Michigan had three wins fewer than expectations, while Northwestern, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Texas Tech, Syracuse and Washington State all struggled to meet expectations, as well, finishing with 2.5 fewer wins than expected.
Here's the full list, with preseason projections, actual win totals and the over/under (note this only includes regular season games, not conference championships):
| Rank | Team | Projected win total | Actual win total | Plus/Minus |
| T-1 | Air Force | 4.5 | 9 | 4.5 |
| T-1 | Georgia Southern | 4.5 | 9 | 4.5 |
| T-1 | Memphis | 4.5 | 9 | 4.5 |
| T-1 | UTEP | 2.5 | 7 | 4.5 |
| T-1 | Western Michigan | 3.5 | 8 | 4.5 |
| T-6 | Appalachian State | 3.5 | 7 | 3.5 |
| T-6 | Arizona | 6.5 | 10 | 3.5 |
| T-6 | Colorado State | 6.5 | 10 | 3.5 |
| T-6 | Georgia Tech | 6.5 | 10 | 3.5 |
| T-6 | TCU | 7.5 | 11 | 3.5 |
| T-11 | Rutgers | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| T-11 | Utah | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| T-13 | Boston College | 4.5 | 7 | 2.5 |
| T-13 | Cal | 2.5 | 5 | 2.5 |
| T-13 | Louisiana Tech | 5.5 | 8 | 2.5 |
| T-13 | Mississippi State | 7.5 | 10 | 2.5 |
| T-13 | Missouri | 7.5 | 10 | 2.5 |
| T-13 | UAB | 3.5 | 6 | 2.5 |
| T-13 | West Virginia | 4.5 | 7 | 2.5 |
| T-21 | Arizona State | 7.5 | 9 | 1.5 |
| T-21 | Arkansas | 4.5 | 6 | 1.5 |
| T-21 | Baylor | 9.5 | 11 | 1.5 |
| T-21 | Central Michigan | 5.5 | 7 | 1.5 |
| T-21 | East Carolina | 6.5 | 8 | 1.5 |
| T-21 | FIU | 2.5 | 4 | 1.5 |
| T-21 | Kansas State | 7.5 | 9 | 1.5 |
| T-21 | Minnesota | 6.5 | 8 | 1.5 |
| T-21 | NC State | 5.5 | 7 | 1.5 |
| T-21 | Temple | 4.5 | 6 | 1.5 |
| T-21 | Texas State | 5.5 | 7 | 1.5 |
| T-21 | UMass | 1.5 | 3 | 1.5 |
| T-21 | Virginia | 3.5 | 5 | 1.5 |
| T-21 | Western Kentucky | 5.5 | 7 | 1.5 |
| T-34 | Illinois | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| T-34 | Kentucky | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| T-34 | Louisville | 8 | 9 | 1 |
| T-34 | Nebraska | 8 | 9 | 1 |
| T-34 | Nevada | 6 | 7 | 1 |
| T-34 | Ole Miss | 8 | 9 | 1 |
| T-40 | Alabama | 10.5 | 11 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Boise State | 9.5 | 10 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Cincinnai | 8.5 | 9 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Clemson | 8.5 | 9 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Duke | 8.5 | 9 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Florida State | 11.5 | 12 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Hawaii | 3.5 | 4 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Marshall | 10.5 | 11 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Maryland | 6.5 | 7 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Michigan State | 9.5 | 10 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Northern Illinois | 9.5 | 10 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Ohio State | 10.5 | 11 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Old Dominion | 5.5 | 6 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Rice | 6.5 | 7 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | San Diego State | 6.5 | 7 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Tennessee | 5.5 | 6 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Toledo | 7.5 | 8 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | UCF | 8.5 | 9 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Wisconsin | 9.5 | 10 | 0.5 |
| T-59 | Kansas | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| T-59 | Oregon | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| T-59 | Texas A&M | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| T-59 | Utah State | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| T-63 | Akron | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 |
| T-63 | Arkansas State | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| T-63 | Eastern Michigan | 2.5 | 2 | -0.5 |
| T-63 | Georgia | 9.5 | 9 | -0.5 |
| T-63 | Miami (OH) | 2.5 | 2 | -0.5 |
| T-63 | Middle Tennessee | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| T-63 | New Mexico | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 |
| T-63 | New Mexico State | 2.5 | 2 | -0.5 |
| T-63 | Notre Dame | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| T-63 | Ohio | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| T-63 | Purdue | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| T-63 | South Florida | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 |
| T-63 | Southern Miss | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| T-63 | UCLA | 9.5 | 9 | -0.5 |
| T-63 | Wyoming | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 |
| T-78 | LSU | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| T-78 | USC | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| T-78 | Wake Forest | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| T-78 | Washington | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| T-82 | Army | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Auburn | 9.5 | 8 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Buffalo* | 6.5 | 5 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | BYU | 9.5 | 8 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Connecticut | 3.5 | 2 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Florida* | 7.5 | 6 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Florida Atlantic | 5.5 | 3 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Fresno State | 7.5 | 6 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Georgia State | 2.5 | 1 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Houston | 8.5 | 7 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Indiana | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Iowa | 8.5 | 7 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Iowa State | 3.5 | 2 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Miami (FL) | 7.5 | 6 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Navy | 8.5 | 7 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | North Texas | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Oklahoma State | 7.5 | 6 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Penn State | 7.5 | 6 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Pittsburgh | 7.5 | 6 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | South Alabama | 7.5 | 6 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Stanford | 8.5 | 7 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Texas | 7.5 | 6 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Tulane | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | UL Lafayette | 9.5 | 8 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | UL Monroe | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 |
| T-107 | Colorado | 4 | 2 | -2 |
| T-107 | North Carolina | 8 | 6 | -2 |
| T-107 | Oregon State | 7 | 5 | -2 |
| T-107 | UNLV | 4 | 2 | -2 |
| T-107 | Virginia Tech | 8 | 6 | -2 |
| T-112 | Ball State | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 |
| T-112 | Bowling Green | 9.5 | 7 | -2.5 |
| T-112 | Idaho* | 3.5 | 1 | -2.5 |
| T-112 | Kent State* | 4.5 | 2 | -2.5 |
| T-112 | Northwestern | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 |
| T-112 | Oklahoma | 10.5 | 8 | -2.5 |
| T-112 | San Jose State | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 |
| T-112 | Syracuse | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 |
| T-112 | Texas Tech | 6.5 | 4 | -2.5 |
| T-112 | UTSA | 6.5 | 4 | -2.5 |
| T-112 | Vanderbilt | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 |
| T-112 | Washington State | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 |
| 124 | Michigan | 8 | 5 | -3 |
| T-125 | South Carolina | 9.5 | 6 | -3.5 |
| T-125 | Troy | 6.5 | 3 | -3.5 |
| T-125 | Tulsa | 5.5 | 2 | -3.5 |
| 128 | SMU | 5.5 | 1 | -4.5 |
*These teams played one fewer game than expected. Florida would very likely have only missed expectations by half a game had it finished its game against Idaho.