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How all 128 FBS college football teams fared against expectations

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Which teams overachieved and underachieved the most this year, according to Vegas' preseason projections?

With the college football regular season wrapped up, we compared this year's results to the preseason expectations from the sportsbook 5Dimes. The top and bottom of the list have some obvious names.

Air Force, Georgia Southern, Memphis, UTEP and Western Michigan were the biggest overachievers this year, finishing 4.5 wins above expectations. The biggest overachievers from the power conferences were TCU, Georgia Tech and Arizona, tied and 3.5 wins above expectations. Another surprising name at the top of the overachievers? UAB. The university dropped football despite the Blazers finishing tied at 13th nationally with 2.5 wins above Vegas' expectations.

One-win SMU was the biggest underachiever in college football this year, finishing with 4.5 fewer wins than expected. However, South Carolina was the biggest underachiever of the power-conference teams, with 3.5 wins below its preseason projection. Michigan had three wins fewer than expectations, while Northwestern, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Texas Tech, Syracuse and Washington State all struggled to meet expectations, as well, finishing with 2.5 fewer wins than expected.

SB Nation 2014 College Football Guide

Here's the full list, with preseason projections, actual win totals and the over/under (note this only includes regular season games, not conference championships):

Rank Team Projected win total Actual win total Plus/Minus
T-1 Air Force 4.5 9 4.5
T-1 Georgia Southern 4.5 9 4.5
T-1 Memphis 4.5 9 4.5
T-1 UTEP 2.5 7 4.5
T-1 Western Michigan 3.5 8 4.5
T-6 Appalachian State 3.5 7 3.5
T-6 Arizona 6.5 10 3.5
T-6 Colorado State 6.5 10 3.5
T-6 Georgia Tech 6.5 10 3.5
T-6 TCU 7.5 11 3.5
T-11 Rutgers 4 7 3
T-11 Utah 5 8 3
T-13 Boston College 4.5 7 2.5
T-13 Cal 2.5 5 2.5
T-13 Louisiana Tech 5.5 8 2.5
T-13 Mississippi State 7.5 10 2.5
T-13 Missouri 7.5 10 2.5
T-13 UAB 3.5 6 2.5
T-13 West Virginia 4.5 7 2.5
T-21 Arizona State 7.5 9 1.5
T-21 Arkansas 4.5 6 1.5
T-21 Baylor 9.5 11 1.5
T-21 Central Michigan 5.5 7 1.5
T-21 East Carolina 6.5 8 1.5
T-21 FIU 2.5 4 1.5
T-21 Kansas State 7.5 9 1.5
T-21 Minnesota 6.5 8 1.5
T-21 NC State 5.5 7 1.5
T-21 Temple 4.5 6 1.5
T-21 Texas State 5.5 7 1.5
T-21 UMass 1.5 3 1.5
T-21 Virginia 3.5 5 1.5
T-21 Western Kentucky 5.5 7 1.5
T-34 Illinois 5 6 1
T-34 Kentucky 4 5 1
T-34 Louisville 8 9 1
T-34 Nebraska 8 9 1
T-34 Nevada 6 7 1
T-34 Ole Miss 8 9 1
T-40 Alabama 10.5 11 0.5
T-40 Boise State 9.5 10 0.5
T-40 Cincinnai 8.5 9 0.5
T-40 Clemson 8.5 9 0.5
T-40 Duke 8.5 9 0.5
T-40 Florida State 11.5 12 0.5
T-40 Hawaii 3.5 4 0.5
T-40 Marshall 10.5 11 0.5
T-40 Maryland 6.5 7 0.5
T-40 Michigan State 9.5 10 0.5
T-40 Northern Illinois 9.5 10 0.5
T-40 Ohio State 10.5 11 0.5
T-40 Old Dominion 5.5 6 0.5
T-40 Rice 6.5 7 0.5
T-40 San Diego State 6.5 7 0.5
T-40 Tennessee 5.5 6 0.5
T-40 Toledo 7.5 8 0.5
T-40 UCF 8.5 9 0.5
T-40 Wisconsin 9.5 10 0.5
T-59 Kansas 3 3 0
T-59 Oregon 11 11 0
T-59 Texas A&M 7 7 0
T-59 Utah State 9 9 0
T-63 Akron 5.5 5 -0.5
T-63 Arkansas State 7.5 7 -0.5
T-63 Eastern Michigan 2.5 2 -0.5
T-63 Georgia 9.5 9 -0.5
T-63 Miami (OH) 2.5 2 -0.5
T-63 Middle Tennessee 6.5 6 -0.5
T-63 New Mexico 4.5 4 -0.5
T-63 New Mexico State 2.5 2 -0.5
T-63 Notre Dame 7.5 7 -0.5
T-63 Ohio 6.5 6 -0.5
T-63 Purdue 3.5 3 -0.5
T-63 South Florida 4.5 4 -0.5
T-63 Southern Miss 3.5 3 -0.5
T-63 UCLA 9.5 9 -0.5
T-63 Wyoming 4.5 4 -0.5
T-78 LSU 9 8 -1
T-78 USC 9 8 -1
T-78 Wake Forest 4 3 -1
T-78 Washington 9 8 -1
T-82 Army 5.5 4 -1.5
T-82 Auburn 9.5 8 -1.5
T-82 Buffalo* 6.5 5 -1.5
T-82 BYU 9.5 8 -1.5
T-82 Connecticut 3.5 2 -1.5
T-82 Florida* 7.5 6 -1.5
T-82 Florida Atlantic 5.5 3 -1.5
T-82 Fresno State 7.5 6 -1.5
T-82 Georgia State 2.5 1 -1.5
T-82 Houston 8.5 7 -1.5
T-82 Indiana 5.5 4 -1.5
T-82 Iowa 8.5 7 -1.5
T-82 Iowa State 3.5 2 -1.5
T-82 Miami (FL) 7.5 6 -1.5
T-82 Navy 8.5 7 -1.5
T-82 North Texas 5.5 4 -1.5
T-82 Oklahoma State 7.5 6 -1.5
T-82 Penn State 7.5 6 -1.5
T-82 Pittsburgh 7.5 6 -1.5
T-82 South Alabama 7.5 6 -1.5
T-82 Stanford 8.5 7 -1.5
T-82 Texas 7.5 6 -1.5
T-82 Tulane 4.5 3 -1.5
T-82 UL Lafayette 9.5 8 -1.5
T-82 UL Monroe 5.5 4 -1.5
T-107 Colorado 4 2 -2
T-107 North Carolina 8 6 -2
T-107 Oregon State 7 5 -2
T-107 UNLV 4 2 -2
T-107 Virginia Tech 8 6 -2
T-112 Ball State 7.5 5 -2.5
T-112 Bowling Green 9.5 7 -2.5
T-112 Idaho* 3.5 1 -2.5
T-112 Kent State* 4.5 2 -2.5
T-112 Northwestern 7.5 5 -2.5
T-112 Oklahoma 10.5 8 -2.5
T-112 San Jose State 5.5 3 -2.5
T-112 Syracuse 5.5 3 -2.5
T-112 Texas Tech 6.5 4 -2.5
T-112 UTSA 6.5 4 -2.5
T-112 Vanderbilt 5.5 3 -2.5
T-112 Washington State 5.5 3 -2.5
124 Michigan 8 5 -3
T-125 South Carolina 9.5 6 -3.5
T-125 Troy 6.5 3 -3.5
T-125 Tulsa 5.5 2 -3.5
128 SMU 5.5 1 -4.5

*These teams played one fewer game than expected. Florida would very likely have only missed expectations by half a game had it finished its game against Idaho.