College Football

The big 2014 Appalachian State football preview: Timing is everything

Appalachian State makes the leap to FBS, but are the Mountaineers doing so a few years too late? Timing the jump is hard, and ASU comes to the FBS off of its worst season in 20 years.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Feb 10, 2014, 11:20am EST

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1. It's one thing to jump ...

... it's another to stick the landing.

Technically, any school can build a winning FBS football program. No matter where you start, you can keep climbing, winning games, climbing further, and winning more until you reach, at worst, the highest rungs of the mid-major FBS ladder. And once there, with perfect timing and perhaps quite a few great seasons, you might be able to sneak into the upper echelon at some point. The obstacle course you are required to pass to get there is pretty incredible, but you can still get there.

Look at Boise State, which jumped to FBS in 1996 and would have probably made the College Football Playoff in 2009 if it had existed at the time. Look at TCU, which got bumped from the major-conference ranks in 1996 but clawed back into the Big 12 in 2012 following a run of great seasons in numerous conferences. Boise State is proof that anybody can build anything. TCU and Utah are proof that, even if you've been around a while, you can still place yourself among the big boys.

Of course, TCU's offense has cratered since the jump to the Big 12, and the Horned Frogs have floundered. Utah began to slip in its last couple of years in the Mountain West and, aside from a tremendous upset of Stanford, hasn't been much of a factor in the Pac-12. And while the Playoff is now in place, Boise State has slipped a bit over the last couple of years after losing a boatload of talent, both on the field and on the coaching staff.

You have to be nearly flawless to climb up the ladder, and then you have to continue to be nearly flawless to avoid falling.

In reality, the jump itself is typically mistimed. The jump often comes after a long string of success in identifying, landing, and developing diamond-in-the-rough talent, and quite often the delay between when you decide to jump and when you actually can jump is just enough time to prompt a fall. Plus, you might lose your head coach to a bigger school or lose a particularly high-impact senior class or two.

Now, technically the jump isn't always merit-based. You don't have to win for years and years to climb up the major-conference ladder (Maryland, Rutgers), and you don't have to decide to jump from FCS to FBS because you're too good for FCS (Florida International, UTSA, Georgia State).

Without obvious geographic or financial advantages, however, some schools take their time and only decide to jump after years of sustained success at the FCS level. UMass won its conference five times in 10 years, won the FCS title in 1998 and reached the title game again in 2006 before taking the leap and landing in the MAC in 2012. Western Kentucky reached the FCS playoffs for five straight years and won the title in 2002 before showing up in FBS in 2007.

But UMass went just 23-22 from 2008-11 before jumping. WKU went 12-10 in 2005-06. A slide had begun for both schools, and that turned into devastation at the FBS level. UMass is 2-22 so far. WKU went 4-32 from 2008-10.

Timing is both everything and nearly impossible.

2. Which brings us to Appalachian State

Appalachian State is one of the most celebrated small-school programs on the planet. The Mountaineers recorded winning seasons every year from 1994-2012. They went 71-15 from 2005-10. They dominated the Southern Conference, FCS' SEC, from 2005-12. They won three consecutive FCS titles from 2005-07. They beat Michigan and made the cover of Sports Illustrated in 2007.

In 24 years on the job, head coach Jerry Moore took a pretty healthy program and made it a dominant one. While some low-rung FBS teams struggle to draw 10,000 for a conference game, Appalachian State drew 30,856 for a game against Montana in 2012. Hell, ASU drew 26,415 for a game against a terrible N.C. A&T squad in 2011. In 2012, the Mountaineers averaged higher attendance (27,964) than any current Sun Belt program despite playing at the FCS level.

The fanbase has been FBS-level for a while, and for most of a decade, Appalachian State was more than FBS-ready. (Remember our Promotion and Relegation series? It was meant for ASU.) In 2013, Sun Belt co-champions UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State ranked 81st and 95th, respectively, in Jeff Sagarin's rankings; from 2005-10, ASU never ranked worse than 76th.

A few years ago, near the height of its power, the school weighed a jump to FBS. Last March, it got its ducks in a row. The transition begins in 2014.

Meanwhile, the slide began three years ago. In 2011-12, Moore managed matching 8-4 records and FCS playoff appearances, but ASU lost in the first round both years. And following the playoff loss to Illinois State in 2012 -- the Redbirds blocked a PAT in overtime to advance, 38-37 -- Moore was more-or-less informed that he was retiring. In stepped Scott Satterfield, a former ASU quarterback who served as offensive coordinator in 2012; Satterfield's first Mountaineer squad went 4-8, losing more than it won for the first time since 1993.

Safe to say, the jump was mistimed.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8
Date	Opponent	Score	W-L	Yards Per Play (ASU vs. Opp)	Per Play Margin	5-game FCS Avg
8/31	at Montana	6-30	L	5.6 to 6.6	-1.0
9/7	North Carolina A&T	21-24	L	4.6 to 3.8	+0.8
9/21	at Elon	31-21	W	7.7 to 5.5	+2.2
9/28	Charleston Southern	24-27	L	8.3 to 5.3	+3.0
10/5	at The Citadel	28-31	L	5.5 to 5.7	-0.2	+1.0
10/12	Samford	10-34	L	3.3 to 6.9	-3.6	+0.4
10/19	at Furman	10-27	L	5.6 to 6.5	-0.9	+0.1
10/26	Georgia Southern	38-14	W	7.4 to 5.3	+2.1	+0.1
11/2	Chattanooga	28-35	L	5.7 to 5.5	+0.2	-0.5
11/9	at Georgia	6-45	L	3.6 to 7.9	-4.3
11/16	at Wofford	33-21	W	5.4 to 5.5	-0.1	-0.6
11/23	Western Carolina	48-27	W	8.2 to 4.9	+3.3	+0.9

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	23.6	76	28.0	69

3. A young team improved.

Moore's 2012 ASU team was young enough that it was still young last year. The Mountaineers began the year in frustrating fashion, losing winnable games to N.C. A&T, Charleston Southern, and The Citadel. Then they fell into a nasty funk for much of October. But with a sophomore quarterback, a freshman running back, and a defense loaded with freshmen and sophomores, they rallied to win three of their last four against FCS teams, nearly beating conference co-champion Chattanooga and taking down Wofford and WCU.

Enough experience returns in 2014 to hope that 2013 was a reset of sorts instead of a new normal. We'll see if that matters as the schedule gets rougher. (And yes, even though there's not a significant jump in quality from the Southern Conference to the Sun Belt, it's still a jump.)

Offense

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Yards/ Pass
Kameron Bryant	6'1, 210	Jr.	N/A	237	333	2713	71.2%	14	4	8.1
Jamal Londry-Jackson				54	83	548	65.1%	2	2	6.6
Logan Hallock	5'11, 185	Sr.	N/A
Taylor Lamb	6'2, 200	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
JP Caruso	6'0, 198	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	Yards/ Carry	TD
Marcus Cox	RB	5'10, 185	So.	2 stars (5.2)	245	1,250	5.1	15
Ricky Fergerson	RB	5'8, 182	Jr.	N/A	55	215	3.9	0
Kameron Bryant	QB	6'1, 210	Jr.	N/A	91	158	1.7	3
Jamal Londry-Jackson	QB				18	23	1.3	0
Terrence Upshaw	RB	5'10, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Josh Boyd	RB	5'10, 173	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

4. A young offense ... was young

One can find plenty of reason for optimism here.

If youth can explain ASU's worst offensive performance in a decade, then one can find plenty of reason for optimism here. Kam Bryant set a school record with a 71 percent completion rate as a sophomore and threw just four picks in 333 pass attempts, and Marcus Cox averaged better than five yards per carry as a freshman. ASU attempts relative 50-50 balance between the run and pass, and the backfield gives ASU hope in both, especially considering the competition on the two-deep. ASU brings in reasonably well-touted freshmen at both quarterback (JP Caruso) and running back (Josh Boyd), and the Mountaineers seem pretty excited about redshirt freshmen at each position as well.

Another reason for optimism: ASU returns one of the most experienced lines in the country. Granted, that experience has come at the FCS level, but six returnees have started at least 11 games, and the line has combined for 143 starts in all. As I like to say, injuries hurt in the present tense and help in the future tense; well, the present tense was unkind to ASU's offensive line for basically two straight years. Welcome to the future tense. Bryant was barely sacked (yes, while throwing a lot of quick passes) with last year's patchwork line protecting him; he should have plenty of time this year, too.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Catches	Yards	Yds/ Catch
Andrew Peacock	WR-M				78	706	9.1
Tony Washington	WR-Y				64	939	14.7
Marcus Cox	RB	5'10, 185	So.	2 stars (5.2)	43	558	13.0
Malachi Jones	WR-X	6'1, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	31	293	9.5
Barrett Burns	TE	6'4, 220	So.	N/A	22	205	9.3
Simms McElfresh	WR-Z	5'10, 173	Jr.	N/A	20	269	13.4
Sean Price	WR				20	237	11.9
Ricky Fergerson	RB				8	30	3.8
Bobo Beathard	WR-Z	5'10, 191	Jr.	N/A	3	28	9.3
Trey Kavanaugh	WR-Y	6'1, 180	Jr.	N/A
Jaquil Capel	WR	5'11, 190	So.	2 stars (5.2)
Dante Jones	WR	5'11, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Montez McGuire	WR	6'1, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Shaedon Meadors	WR	6'2, 177	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Nikia Cathey	WR	5'9, 177	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Brandon Watson	TE	6'5, 223	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. One big question mark

Bryant had both possession options and some big-play threats in 2013. In Andrew Peacock, he had a high-efficiency, low-explosiveness possession receiver; in Tony Washington, he had an intermediate threat who averaged nearly 15 yards per catch. The two combined for nearly 12 catches per game and caught six touchdown passes, and now they're both gone.

Marcus Cox is already one of the best out-of-the-backfield receiving threats in the country, but there will be a lot of pressure on newcomers to play reliably early on. Juniors Malachi Jones and Simms McElfresh had some moments last year, but junior college transfer Montez McGuire, youngsters Dante Jones and Jaquil Capel, and perhaps a freshman or two will need to fill in rather quickly.

Offensive Line

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts/Honors/Notes
Kendall Lamm	LT	6'6, 292	Sr.	N/A	30 career starts, 2013 1st All-SoCon
Graham Fisher	C	6'2, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.0)	28 career starts
Alex Acey	RG	5'11, 268	Sr.	N/A	28 career starts
Shaq Counts	LG	6'2, 295	Jr.	N/A	24 career starts
Will Corbin	RT	6'6, 311	Sr.	N/A	20 career starts
Davante Harris	RT	6'6, 295	Jr.	N/A	11 career starts
Ian Barnard	LT				8 career starts
Tucker Lee	LG				5 career starts
Jesse Chapman	C	6'1, 270	Jr.	N/A	1 career start
Parker Collins	RG	6'3, 290	So.	2 stars (5.2)	1 career start
Tyson Fernandez	OL	6'2, 325	So.	N/A
Colby Gossett	OL	6'6, 310	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Beau Nunn	OL	6'4, 265	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)

Defense

Defensive Line

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Deuce Robinson	DE	6'5, 252	Sr.	N/A	12	29.5	4.3%	7	2	0	0	1	0
Thomas Bronson	DE	6'3, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	21.5	3.1%	3.5	0	0	0	1	0
Adam Scott	DE				12	21.5	3.1%	8.5	2	0	1	0	2
Stephen Burns	NT	6'2, 280	Jr.	N/A	12	19.5	2.8%	4	1	0	0	0	0
Tyson Fernandez	NT (OL)	6'2, 325	So.	N/A	11	12.5	1.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Olawale Dada	DL	6'0, 225	So.	N/A	4	11.5	1.7%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Greg Milhouse	NT	6'3, 275	Jr.	N/A	12	11.0	1.6%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Nathaniel Norwood	DE	6'2, 225	So.	2 stars (5.2)	12	7.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ronald Blair	DE	6'4, 275	Sr.	N/A	2	4.0	0.6%	1.5	1	0	0	0	1
Tashion Singleton	DE	6'3, 245	So.	N/A	7	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alanmichael Harkness	DE	6'3, 235	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Myquon Stout	DT	6'1, 260	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

6. Wanted: Pass rushers

Georgia game aside, Appalachian State had a decent defense, especially over the last half of the season. The Mountaineers allowed 4.9 yards per carry and only 11.5 yards per completion -- both entirely acceptable numbers. But they had no pass rush whatsoever, bringing down opposing quarterbacks just eight times in 303 pass attempts. Against Georgia, whose scorekeeper is one of the most hilariously liberal recorders of QB hurries in the country (let's put it this way: Georgia supposedly had 109 hurries last year while Florida State had 29; how do you feel about the accuracy of that?), ASU recorded zero sacks and zero hurries in 42 Dawg passes.

The front four returns nearly everyone of consequence in 2014 and adds a couple of interesting true freshmen as well, but Adam Scott, the closest thing to a pass rusher on the squad, is gone. Deuce Robinson has potential, but he'll need some help from either some sophomore ends or a more effective blitz.

ASU operated out of new defensive coordinator Nate Woody's 3-4 alignment last year, and the transition was far from smooth. Youth and misplaced parts resulted in a rather passive unit. We'll see what happens this time around, with Woody able to put a few more of his preferred pieces onto the field.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Karl Anderson	ILB				12	81.0	11.7%	2.5	0	2	5	0	1
John Law	ILB	6'0, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	50.5	7.3%	2	1	3	0	1	1
Kennan Gilchrist	OLB	6'2, 200	So.	2 stars (5.2)	12	43.5	6.3%	4.5	0	0	1	2	0
Michael Frazier	OLB				12	41.0	5.9%	5	0	0	2	0	0
Patrick Blalock	OLB				12	38.5	5.6%	4.5	0.5	0	1	1	0
Brandon McGowan	ILB	6'2, 231	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	9	31.5	4.6%	2	0	0	2	0	1
Rashaad Townes	OLB	6'2, 210	So.	2 stars (5.3)	7	20.0	2.9%	2	0	0	1	0	0
Toronto Thomas	ILB	6'0, 220	So.	N/A	12	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Denzel Ward	ILB	5'11, 230	Jr.	N/A	8	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
George Vinson	ILB	6'0, 205	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Lee Wright	OLB	5'11, 200	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Okon Godwin	LB	6'2, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. Law and Gilchrist held their own

When you're operating from a new defensive scheme, you're often forced to go young. And while the linebacking corps was reasonably experienced overall -- seniors Karl Anderson (the leading tackler and a strong pass defender), Michael Frazier and Patrick Blalock among the top five tacklers in the unit -- freshmen John Law and Kennan Gilchrist commanded quite a bit of playing time as well. Like Frazier and Blalock, Gilchrist was quite undersized for an attacking OLB, but he still logged 4.5 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles. He's a potential playmaker, though it's at least a little bit of a concern to lose Anderson.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alex Gray	FS				12	53.5	7.7%	2.5	0.2	0	1	0	0
Joel Ross	CB	5'10, 188	Sr.	N/A	12	46.5	6.7%	0.5	0	0	3	1	0
Doug Middleton	SS	6'0, 203	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	38.0	5.5%	2.5	0	2	1	2	0
Kevin Walton	SS	6'0, 190	Jr.	N/A	12	37.0	5.3%	1	0	1	1	0	0
Rodger Walker	CB				10	18.5	2.7%	0.5	0	2	0	0	0
Dante Blackmon	CB	5'11, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)	11	13.0	1.9%	0.5	0	0	2	0	0
Aaron Krah	CB	5'11, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	11	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Anthony Covington	DB	5'10, 195	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Jordan Ford	DB	6'2, 185	Jr.	N/A
Jordan Noll	DB	6'3, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Bentlee Critcher	6'1, 175	So.	51	45.9	5	11	15	51.0%
Zach Matics	6'2, 186	Jr.	1	44.0	0	0	0	0.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%
Zach Matics	6'2, 186	Jr	55	61.8	21	38.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Drew Stewart			32-32	9-10	90.0%	4-8	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Tony Washington	KR			31	21.1	0
Bobo Beathard	KR	5'10, 191	Jr.	7	22.1	0
Tony Washington	PR			10	4.1	0

8. Bentlee

Appalachian State brings both a fine history and some fantastic names to the FBS ranks. In addition to Toronto Thomas at linebacker, Alanmichael Harkness and Olawale Dada at defensive end, and Simms McElfresh and Bobo Beathard at receiver, they return Bentlee Critcher at punter.

Critcher's not only a name -- he's also a hell of a punter, combining a strong leg (46-yard average) with solid placement (15 of 51 punts downed inside the 20). He and Zach Matics give ASU a decent special teams unit, even if there are question marks in the return game and at place-kicker, where steady Drew Stewart departs.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
8/30	at Michigan	23
9/6	Campbell	N/A
9/20	at Southern Miss	110
10/11	Liberty	N/A
TBA	Georgia State	125
TBA	Idaho	120
TBA	South Alabama	92
TBA	UL-Monroe	112
TBA	at Arkansas State	84
TBA	at Georgia Southern	N/A
TBA	at Troy	111
TBA	at UL-Lafayette	79

Five-Year F/+ Rk	N/A
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	N/A
TO Luck/Game	+3.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	17 (9, 8)

9. 17 starters = nearly guaranteed improvement

When we talk about returning starter data, the middle doesn't mean much. From about 11 returning starters to 16 returning starters, the projected improvement or regression is minimal. But if you get to 17 or 18, you're all but guaranteed to improve, perhaps significantly. This is good news for a team that celebrated its jump to FBS with its worst season in two decades. The other good news:

10. The Sun Belt isn't exactly murderous

The Sun Belt's lot in life improved in recent years thanks to some impressive hires and enhanced depth. But between program defection (North Texas, FAU, FIU, and MTSU left for Conference USA before 2013) and coaches getting hired away (Arkansas State has lost three in three years, WKU has lost two in two), the conference as a whole has taken a step backwards again. The top teams -- Louisiana-Lafayette and perhaps Arkansas State -- could still be interesting, and South Alabama is rapidly improving, but the bottom of the conference could be quite bad (something that wasn't helped by the addition of Idaho and New Mexico State).

Home games against Georgia State, Idaho, and UL-Monroe are all winnable, and trips to Georgia Southern and Troy are in no way out of reach. If ASU is indeed able to improve to even 2011-12 levels, the Mountaineers could match last season's win total.

Still, one has to wonder about this jump. At their peak, the Mountaineers outclassed most of their new conference. Now, they're starting over a bit. The money makes sense, but the timing might not.