College Football

The big 2014 Georgia State football preview: You've got to start somewhere, right?

Georgia State's first FBS season went about as poorly as expected, but the Panthers showed verifiable improvement in November. Do enough key pieces return for that growth to become a starting point in 2014?

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Feb 12, 2014, 9:24am EST

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1. Gotta start somewhere

Really, if you were building a FBS program from scratch, wouldn't Atlanta be just about the best possible location? Atlanta is for all intents and purposes the capital of college football, and GSU won't have to go far to locate talent. Now ... make no mistake: Georgia State is going to be absolutely awful in 2013. Terrible. But the Panthers' decision to move to the FBS ranks after just three years in existence was not about the current product. It was about what the product might become. In that regard, this move makes a lot of sense even though GSU went a ghastly 1-10 at the FCS level last year.

I didn't try to put much of a positive spin on Georgia State's prospects in the Panthers' 2013 season preview. There was just not much of a chance that a team that had gone 1-10 in FCS in 2012 was going to jump to the Sun Belt and do much of anything, even if it had made a seemingly solid head coaching hire in drawing something-out-of-nothing-maker Trent Miles from Indiana State.

Sure enough, they went 0-12, getting outscored, 86-10, by two major-conference teams and losing by a combined 38 points to Samford and Chattanooga. If Appalachian State mistimed its jump to FBS this year, Georgia State didn't even try to time it right.

But the best thing about Year 1 is that it ends. With the initial pain out of the way, it's time to move forward. Maybe.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 0-12 \| Adj. Record: 2-10 \| Final F/+ Rk: 121
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
30-Aug	Samford	N/A	21-31	L	21.1 - 26.9	L
7-Sep	Chattanooga	N/A	14-42	L	17.7 - 44.7	L
14-Sep	at West Virginia	76	7-41	L	8.8 - 43.5	L
21-Sep	Jacksonville State	N/A	26-32	L	11.6 - 48.0	L
5-Oct	at Alabama	2	3-45	L	11.2 - 36.5	L	-25.8
12-Oct	Troy	105	28-35	L	20.6 - 26.3	L	-25.8
19-Oct	at Texas State	107	17-24	L	24.8 - 39.7	L	-23.4
26-Oct	at UL-Monroe	109	10-38	L	13.5 - 46.7	L	-23.1
2-Nov	Western Kentucky	77	28-44	L	31.9 - 28.9	W	-15.2
16-Nov	UL-Lafayette	86	21-35	L	32.0 - 39.3	L	-11.6
23-Nov	at Arkansas State	90	33-35	L	30.0 - 18.0	W	-8.1
30-Nov	South Alabama	68	17-38	L	25.4 - 34.0	L	-6.8

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-14.8%	115	-15.2%	118	-3.1%	111
Points Per Game	18.8	115	36.7	111
Adj. Points Per Game	20.7	115	36.0	115

2. It got better

Through five games, Georgia State's most encouraging result was either losing by just six points to FCS Jacksonville State or losing by only 42 points to Alabama. This was going about as poorly as imagined.

But as we see from the five-game adjusted-score averages above, GSU began to show clear, demonstrable progress down the stretch, and on both sides of the ball.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 40.8, GSU 14.8 (minus-26.0)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Opponent 37.3, GSU 17.5 (minus-19.8)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Opponent 30.1, GSU 29.8 (minus-0.3)

GSU was legitimately mediocre over the last month of the season (faint praise, yes, but praise nonetheless), and while that didn't result in any wins, all you're looking for in a year like this is progress. GSU was within seven points of eventual conference champion UL-Lafayette midway through the fourth quarter and came up a two-point conversion short against Arkansas State. Against FBS competition, GSU averaged at least 5.5 yards per play five times in nine games: once in the first five and in each of the last four.

Progress? Absolutely. Now the Panthers just have to sustain it without most of their receiving corps, secondary, and offensive line.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.21	37	IsoPPP+	98.1	74
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.0%	120	Succ. Rt. +	76.8	122
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	33.7	119	Def. FP+	92.6	123
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.7	105	Redzone S&P+	81.2	113

TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.0		ACTUAL	23	-2.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	103	123	123	112
RUSHING	115	113	114	120
PASSING	41	123	121	84
Standard Downs		113	123	29
Passing Downs		124	117	123

Q1 Rk	114	1st Down Rk	91
Q2 Rk	126	2nd Down Rk	123
Q3 Rk	111	3rd Down Rk	124
Q4 Rk	67

3. All or nothing (and usually nothing)

Former Boston College head coach and NFL assistant Jeff Jagodzinski took over as Miles' offensive coordinator last season, and his pro-style approach basically translated to a low-efficiency, pass-first attack. Georgia State threw downfield, for better or worse, and the result was horrific efficiency with the occasional big play.

Quarterback Ronnie Bell went through all sorts of growing pains as a sophomore starter, but his development was as responsible as anything for GSU's late-season improvement.

Ronnie Bell (first 8 games): 113-for-242 (47%), 1,520 yards (13.5 per completion), 10 TD, 7 INT
Ronnie Bell (last 4 games): 75-for-134 (56%), 1,053 yards (14.0 per completion), 5 TD, 4 INT

Bell kept up GSU's vertical tendencies while raising his completion rate nearly 10 percent. This is obviously an encouraging thing. Less encouraging: Albert Wilson, by far GSU's best play-maker in 2013, is gone, as are Bell's No. 3 and No. 4 targets.

Sophomore Robert Davis returns after quite the all-or-nothing campaign -- 48 percent catch rate, 16.2 yards per catch -- and both tight end Keith Rucker and wideout Avery Sweeting showed signs of explosiveness in limited opportunities. And Miles brought in three interesting freshmen as well. Still, this is a brand new receiving corps for Bell to get acquainted with ... that is, if Bell keeps the job. He'll have to fend off two JUCO transfers, Clay Chastain (in school last year) and Nick Arbuckle (a new signee), to remain the starter.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Ronnie Bell

5'11, 180

Jr.

2 stars (5.4)

188

376

2573

50.0%

7.4%

5.9

Ben McLane

6'1, 210

Jr.

354

54.9%

3.8%

6.5

Clay Chastain

6'4, 215

Jr.

2 stars (5.2)

Nick Arbuckle

6'2, 220

Jr.

3 stars (5.5)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Travis Evans	RB				115	405	3	3.5	4.3	25.2%
Jonathan Jean-Bart	RB	5'11, 195	So.	NR	71	269	1	3.8	2.4	38.0%
Ronnie Bell	QB	5'11, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	49	282	3	5.8	3.8	49.0%
Albert Wilson	WR				24	251	1	10.5	16.3	45.8%
Kyler Neal	RB	5'11, 209	So.	NR	24	96	0	4.0	4.8	25.0%
Gerald Howse	RB	6'2, 215	Sr.	NR	15	38	0	2.5	1.3	20.0%
Sean Jeppesen	FB	6'0, 225	Sr.	NR	10	31	1	3.1	10.5	10.0%
Parris Lee	RB				6	13	0	2.2	2.4	33.3%
Ben McLane	QB	6'1, 210	Jr.	NR	5	-3	0	-0.6	2.3	20.0%
Kelton Hill	WR				5	32	0	6.4	7.1	60.0%

4. Something from the ground game

Even a pass-first attack needs some help from the ground game. GSU had some serious big-play ability in run-or-pass situations (i.e. standard downs), but there was just no hope for help from the ground game. Wilson was also GSU's only explosive runner, and he could only get so many touches per game. The line was able to keep defenders out of the backfield reasonably well, but that didn't translate to downfield success. Only one of every four Travis Evans carries made it five yards downfield, and two freshman running backs -- Jonathan Jean-Bart and Kyler Neal -- combined to do only slightly better.

All things considered, the line really wasn't too bad last year, but that will change in 2014 with the loss of five players with starting experience, four of whom started for at least a year. Two-year starting center Tim Wynn is back, but Miles is bringing in major reinforcements in the form of three junior college transfers. If they're ready to contribute, they certainly have some impressive size, but asking three JUCOs to be ready immediately doesn't typically work out very well.

If the line does gel to any degree, Jean-Bart does seem to have a bit of potential. His Opportunity Rate (his ability to follow blocks at least five yards downfield, basically) was much better than that of any other running back, which suggests that his vision and agility are pretty decent. He had almost no explosiveness to speak of, but in theory, the job of the running game here is efficiency. The passing game will take care of the big plays.

In theory.

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2014
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Target Rate

%SD

Yds/
Target

NEY

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Albert Wilson

125

1177

56.8%

31.6%

52.0%

9.4

259

8.6

118.4

Robert Davis

6'3, 190

So.

711

48.4%

23.0%

53.4%

7.8

6.3

71.5

Danny Williams

244

45.9%

9.3%

53.1%

6.6

-4

5.6

24.5

Kelton Hill

196

55.6%

9.1%

51.7%

5.4

-66

6.3

19.7

Keith Rucker

6'3, 232

So.

232

48.3%

7.3%

64.0%

8.0

7.7

23.3

Travis Evans

52.6%

4.8%

37.5%

4.4

-52

5.4

8.3

Avery Sweeting

5'8, 160

Jr.

120

56.3%

4.0%

46.2%

7.5

3.6

12.1

Parris Lee

84.6%

3.3%

58.3%

6.7

-30

6.3

8.8

Lynquez Blair

5'10, 175

Sr.

54.5%

2.8%

45.5%

4.0

-35

4.0

4.4

Sean Jeppesen

6'0, 225

Sr.

100.0%

1.3%

50.0%

10.6

9.0

5.3

Jonathan Jean-Bart

5'11, 195

So.

75.0%

1.0%

66.7%

8.8

6.3

3.5

Duvall Smith

5'10, 208

Sr.

66.7%

0.8%

0.0%

4.7

-10

2.2

1.4

Ronnie Bell

5'11, 180

Jr.

2 stars (5.4)

50.0%

0.5%

N/A

3.0

-8

0.0

0.6

Kyler Neal

5'11, 209

So.

100.0%

0.5%

50.0%

12.0

13.8

2.4

Tevish Clark

6'2, 185

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

Maaseiah Francis

6'2, 175

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

Ari Werts

6'4, 220

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	87.9	2.81	2.77	33.2%	68.0%	20.5%	71.5	6.1%	7.3%
Rank	107	80	108	118	68	78	108	98	73

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Grant King	RT				40
Ulrick John	LT				25
Tim Wynn	C	6'2, 280	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	21
Harrison Clottey	RG				15
Michael Davis	C				13
A.J. Kaplan	LG	6'4, 295	Sr.	NR	12
Cade Yates	RG				7
Garrett Gorringe	RG	6'4, 280	So.	NR	5
Brandon Pertile	RG	6'5, 290	So.	2 stars (5.4)	3
Ronald Martin	C	6'1, 280	Sr.	NR	3
Ramell Davis	LT				0
David Huey	LG	6'2, 290	Jr.	NR
Davis Moore	OL	6'4, 275	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Taylor Evans	OL	6'4, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Michael Ivory	OL	6'5, 345	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Steve Wolgamott	OL	6'6, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.16	68	IsoPPP+	97.7	75
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	47.6%	106	Succ. Rt. +	83.9	115
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	25.3	124	Off. FP+	92.5	121
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	92	Redzone S&P+	88.4	90

TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	14.4		ACTUAL	16.0	+1.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	107	112	115	118
RUSHING	112	105	110	115
PASSING	82	114	115	106
Standard Downs		109	111	76
Passing Downs		112	116	75

Q1 Rk	108	1st Down Rk	100
Q2 Rk	116	2nd Down Rk	121
Q3 Rk	106	3rd Down Rk	114
Q4 Rk	109

5. Death by a million six-yard gains

The GSU offense was pretty decent at the big plays, and the defense was pretty decent at preventing them. It's the whole efficiency thing that tripped the Panthers up on both sides of the ball.

GSU's defense was in the middle of the FBS pack when it comes to the magnitude of the big plays it allowed, but the Panthers ranked 115th in Success Rate+, and that was a major contributor (along with a non-existent return game) to their inability to give the offense any semblance of good field position. An impossibly young defensive line ges a little bit more experienced, so that might help, but the secondary was destroyed by graduation, which might lead to more big plays.

Plug up one leak, and another one appears.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	90.5	3.09	3.47	41.3%	74.6%	16.2%	67.8	1.2%	6.7%
Rank	102	85	80	87	98	99	111	126	65

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2014
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Theo Agnew

49.0

6.9%

6.5

0.0

Terrance Woodard

38.5

5.4%

2.5

0.0

Shawayne Lawrence

6'4, 270

So.

2 stars (5.2)

19.0

2.7%

3.5

1.0

Jalen Lawrence

6'1, 280

So.

2 stars (5.2)

8.5

1.2%

0.5

0.0

Tevin Jones

6'4, 260

So.

2 stars (5.2)

6.0

0.8%

1.0

0.0

Tanner Strickland

6'3, 260

So.

5.0

0.7%

1.0

0.0

Carnell Hopson

6'2, 250

So.

2 stars (5.2)

3.5

0.5%

0.0

Nermin Delic

6'4, 275

Sr.

3 stars (5.5)

1.5

0.2%

0.0

Will Cunningham

6'1, 270

RSFr.

2 stars (5.3)

6. Incredible youth

In the fall of 2012, Shawayne Lawrence was playing defensive end for Eagle's Landing High School in McDonough, GA. Jalen Lawrence was a 265-pound tackle for Macon Westside. Tevin Jones was an end at Hampton Luella. Carnell Hopson was a 255-pound tackle at Dallas (GA) South Paulding. A year later, they were all thrust onto Georgia State's defensive two-deep. Granted, only Lawrence played more than six games, but GSU's three-man line almost literally had just three healthy, able players at any time.

With this in mind, the fact that GSU ranked 102nd in Adj. Line Yards almost seems like an accomplishment. Either the three linemen the Panthers did have were pretty good, or the four-man linebacking corps was able to make up a lot of ground.

GSU is probably hoping it's the latter in 2014, because while seven of the top nine from an active, interesting set of linebackers return, two of the three default linemen do not. Up front, GSU is going to live or die by the sophomore class that got bits of experience last year.

Linebackers

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2014
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Joseph Peterson

ILB

6'0, 220

Jr.

82.5

11.5%

6.0

2.0

Tarris Batiste

OLB

6'1, 210

Jr.

62.5

8.7%

9.5

0.0

Robert Ferguson

ILB

52.5

7.3%

3.5

1.0

Mackendy Cheridor

OLB

6'4, 235

So.

27.0

3.8%

7.5

1.0

Jarrell Robinson

6'2, 215

Sr.

2 stars (5.4)

24.5

3.4%

4.5

2.0

Allen McKay

OLB

19.0

2.7%

2.5

2.0

Kight Dallas

6'1, 230

So.

3 stars (5.5)

13.5

1.9%

0.0

Sean Jeppesen

ILB

6'0, 225

Sr.

12.0

1.7%

1.5

0.0

Jameel Spencer

ILB

6'1, 210

So.

2 stars (5.2)

8.0

1.1%

1.0

0.0

Melvin King

OLB

6'3, 225

Jr.

3.5

0.5%

0.0

Spencer Haywood

OLB

6'2, 200

Sr.

3.5

0.5%

0.0

Malik Ricks

6'2, 225

Fr.

2 stars (5.3)

7. The blitz worked

Despite the uncertainty (and, I'm assuming, fatigue) up front, the linebackers really were the strength of this team. Indiana State transfer Tarris Batiste and Mackendy Cheridor combined for 17 tackles for loss as a sophomore and redshirt freshman, respectively, and Joseph Peterson was your prototypical mess-cleaning inside linebacker. Kight Dallas, once a South Carolina commit, worked his way into the rotation a bit as a freshman, and this unit more than held its own. And on the rare occasion that GSU was able to force a passing down, the GSU blitz was able to find its mark quite a bit.

The problem, of course, is that the passing downs were indeed rare. And even on passing downs, opponents were content to run, both because it avoided a GSU strength (blitzing) and because running lanes were usually available.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Brent McClendon	CB				12	46.0	6.4%	1	0	3	5	1	0
Arington Jordan	S				9	39.5	5.5%	2.5	0	0	1	0	0
Demarius Matthews	CB				12	39.0	5.5%	2.5	0	1	6	2	0
Rashad Stewart	S				8	38.5	5.4%	2	0	0	0	0	0
Kail Singleton	S				8	36.5	5.1%	2.5	2	1	0	1	0
LaDarion Young	S	6'1, 185	So.	2 stars (5.4)	7	18.5	2.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Myles Morris	CB	5'8, 172	So.	NR	7	15.5	2.2%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Nate Anthony	CB				7	9.5	1.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Trent Hill	S	5'10, 170	So.	NR	3	7.5	1.0%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Jamal Ransby	CB				5	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	3	1	0
Robert Dowling	DB	5'10, 175	So.	NR	2	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Caffey	DB	5'11, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Sheldon Wynn	DB	6'1, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Nate Simon	DB	6'2, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Antreal Allen	DB	5'10, 181	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jerome Smith	DB	5'10, 174	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)
Ronald Peterkin	DB	6'1, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

8. Starting over in the back

If there was some experience in the secondary, I would be very much talking myself into this defense. The line is at least a little deeper, and the linebackers are good, but it's difficult to imagine the secondary being quite as sturdy from a big-play standpoint when it is replacing seven of its top 10 tacklers.

GSU basically has some sophomores, some freshmen, and some junior college transfers in the back, and while there are some star recruits in this mix -- Antreal Allen was one of two three-star signees according to Rivals, and Marcus Caffey in particular was a pretty well-regarded JUCO -- there is just too much new blood here to avoid regression. GSU should still improve in the efficiency department, and that's important, but big plays could become an issue, even with conservative coverages.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Matt Hubbard	6'4, 235	Sr.	78	42.0	8	30	16	59.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Wil Lutz	6'0, 190	Jr.	41	55.1	10	1	24.4%
Matt Hubbard	6'4, 235	Sr.	3	51.3	0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Wil Lutz	6'0, 190	Jr.	25-26	6-7	85.7%	2-5	40.0%
Matt Hubbard	6'4, 235	Sr.	2-2	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Albert Wilson	KR			31	23.5	0
Kelton Hill	KR			18	17.0	0
Albert Wilson	PR			15	8.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	111
Field Goal Efficiency	47
Punt Return Efficiency	106
Kick Return Efficiency	122
Punt Efficiency	88
Kickoff Efficiency	107
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	57

9. Lutz is a keeper

GSU's special teams unit wasn't very good last year, but it's probably not going to be any worse for losing its top return men, as "top" is a pretty relative term.

Matt Hubbard is a solid punter, and Will Lutz was basically an automatic place-kicker inside of 40 yards. Outside of 40 was a different story, but that's not necessarily a big deal -- few college kickers are reliable outside of 40. But if GSU can get inside about the 20-25, the Panthers should get at least three points out of the trip. And hey, the return game really can't be much worse.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
27-Aug	Abilene Christian	NR
13-Sep	Air Force	105
20-Sep	at Washington	30
22-Nov	at Clemson	14
TBD	Arkansas State	84
TBD	Georgia Southern	NR
TBD	New Mexico State	124
TBD	Texas State	114
TBD	at Appalachian State	NR
TBD	at South Alabama	92
TBD	at Troy	111
TBD	at UL-Lafayette	79

Five-Year F/+ Rk	N/A
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	125
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-7 / -10.7
TO Luck/Game	+1.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	9 (4, 5)

10. The November version of GSU could win a few games

Generally speaking, improvement over your final four of five games can be indicative of permanent growth. And since Georgia State really did improve rather dramatically from month to month last year, it's not unreasonable to find reason for optimism in 2014 from that. But that growth only really matters if the reasons for growth return the next year. And between the losses in the secondary and receiving corps, there's also reason to believe GSU will be starting from scratch in some regard in 2014.

That GSU was able to rank 121st in F/+ last season, ahead of four other teams, was a bit of an accomplishment considering how awful the Panthers were at the FCS level in 2012. And if Miles is able to engineer improvement to the level of 110th or so, there are certainly some wins to be found on this schedule.

But when you're 1-21 over the last two years, you still face the burden of proof. Expect improvement, but don't expect more than a couple of wins.