College Football

The big 2014 New Mexico State football preview: Playing the long game

Doug Martin isn't looking to take shortcuts in building a program at NMSU. He's recruiting high schoolers, building slowly, and accepting quite a bit of short-term pain to hopefully win in a few years.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Feb 13, 2014, 11:01am EST

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1. "I'm just going to hide out here for a while."

You go to New Mexico to either eat or hide. Santa Fe is beautiful, and Albuquerque is tasty, but when the water begins to run out, it's going to run out in New Mexico first. If you're an outsider coming in, you're either not planning to stay long or you're staying long because you don't have much of a choice.

Doug Martin wanted to be a head football coach again, but after a mostly unsuccessful stint at Kent State -- he went 29-53 from 2004-10, but he did basically set the table for Darrell Hazell's success -- his immediate post-resignation opportunities were of the offensive coordinator variety. He was DeWayne Walker's OC at NMSU in 2011 and Frank Spaziani's OC at Boston College in 2012. But when Walker quietly fled left NMSU a year ago to become a position coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars, Martin filled the position. If he wanted to lead a program again, this was basically his only FBS option.

Martin's first year at NSMU was ... familiar. NMSU went 2-10; it was the third time in four years that the Aggies won two or fewer games in a season and seventh in 11 that they won three or fewer. But that's fine. Results aren't going to matter for a while. With realignment almost relegating the Aggies to FCS -- they were left without a conference in 2013 after the WAC's disintegration and spent the year as an independent before catching a life raft from the Sun Belt -- the goal of the program was mostly about survival, and for now they have accomplished that goal.

Martin is playing a long game, which is both admirable and scary. When you're building a program almost from scratch (and to be sure, Martin didn't inherit much from Walker), you might be tempted to load up on transfers, JUCO and otherwise. But Martin isn't going that route. He claims to want to build from high school talent, and he backed that up by signing just two JUCOs in a 25-man recruiting class earlier this February. The upside is that he can develop and sculpt talent over the long-term; the downside is that his team is going to continue to stink for a while.

He enters Year 2 tasked with replacing most of last year's play-makers, relatively speaking, and trying to figure out what the hell to do about a defense that was thin and horrendous.

2. Where old coaches ride off into the sunset

When hiring assistants to help build the moribund program you just inherited, you can basically take one of two routes. Either you go super-young and aim for hungry, inexperienced coaches who will both give your program energy and leave as soon as a bigger job finds them, or you go old and find the experienced hands who are just about to the ends of their respective careers.

Martin is taking the latter route. His offensive coordinator is 57-year-old Gregg Brandon, former Bowling Green head coach and offensive coordinator at Virginia and Wyoming. An old spread architect, Brandon is a solid teacher, but it's been a while since he was put in charge of an offense with much legitimate talent.

Meanwhile, when Martin decided to replace defensive coordinator David Elson in January, he went about as far down the experienced-old-hand route as possible. Larry Coyer has served as the defensive coordinator for Iowa (1974-77), Oklahoma State (1978), Iowa State (1979-82), the USFL's Michigan Panthers and Memphis Showboats (1983-85), Memphis State (1986), East Carolina (1993), Iowa State again (1995-96), Pittsburgh (1997-99), and the NFL's Denver Broncos (2003-06) and Indianapolis Colts (2009-11). Coyer's career began when Marshall hired him as a graduate assistant in 1965; he's now 70. He has succeeded, failed, succeeded, and failed again. He worked with Martin on crazy old Steve Logan's ECU staff in the early-1990s (one that also featured ULM coach Todd Berry), and he has a history of being both aggressive and, at times, relatively unorthodox. We'll see what he can do with a unit that was terribly outmanned a year ago.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 \| Adj. Record: 0-12 \| Final F/+ Rk: 122
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at Texas	35	7-56	L	22.3 - 62.5	L
7-Sep	Minnesota	55	21-44	L	21.2 - 49.9	L
14-Sep	UTEP	119	21-42	L	30.1 - 38.8	L
21-Sep	at UCLA	15	13-59	L	25.7 - 42.7	L
28-Sep	San Diego State	89	16-26	L	19.7 - 30.0	L	-21.0
5-Oct	at New Mexico	110	17-66	L	19.0 - 46.9	L	-18.5
19-Oct	Rice	69	19-45	L	25.8 - 39.9	L	-15.6
26-Oct	Abilene Christian	N/A	34-29	W	23.3 - 68.2	L	-22.8
2-Nov	at UL-Lafayette	86	35-49	L	28.0 - 45.7	L	-23.0
9-Nov	Boston College	65	34-48	L	30.7 - 45.9	L	-24.0
23-Nov	at Florida Atlantic	73	10-55	L	18.5 - 50.5	L	-24.8
30-Nov	Idaho	116	24-16	W	18.0 - 35.4	L	-25.4

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-12.8%	111	-15.6%	119	-6.4%	124
Points Per Game	20.9	104	44.6	122
Adj. Points Per Game	23.5	103	46.4	125

NMSU did not have the worst defense in the country. That is a sad disclaimer.

3. A historically awful defense

For the season as a whole, NMSU did not have the worst defense in the country. That is a sad disclaimer, but I'll go ahead and throw it out there. The unit had just enough decent moments -- the Aggies allowed just 16 points to Idaho and 26 to San Diego State -- to rank 119th in Def. F/+, ahead of a few others: Troy, UAB, Air Force, Eastern Michigan, UTEP, and rival New Mexico.

That said, the stretch from October 5 to November 23, one that encompassed six games, five losses, 292 points, and 3,272 yards, might be among the worst half-season stretches of defense in college football's history. NMSU allowed 8.2 yards per play, gave up a combined 121 points to New Mexico and FAU, and very nearly lost (via Hail Mary) to an Abilene Christian team that was still in provisional FCS status (i.e. it was a Division II program very, very recently). As you'll see below, NMSU ranked in the 120s in most categories and saw just four defenders play in all 12 games, and while the Aggies rallied a bit in the season finale against Idaho ... yeah, you've got your work cut out for you, Coach Coyer.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.10	82	IsoPPP+	88.9	114
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.7%	80	Succ. Rt. +	87.6	105
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	33.2	113	Def. FP+	94.4	111
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	69	Redzone S&P+	100.6	59

TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.2		ACTUAL	26	+2.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	82	111	106	105
RUSHING	90	119	117	115
PASSING	57	90	70	67
Standard Downs		124	118	125
Passing Downs		61	57	73

Q1 Rk	113	1st Down Rk	123
Q2 Rk	92	2nd Down Rk	54
Q3 Rk	118	3rd Down Rk	107
Q4 Rk	89

4. The offense was almost interesting

The defense never had a chance, but Gregg Brandon's offense showed some late-season promise; the Aggies averaged better than 5.0 yards per play just seven times in 2013, but six of those instances came in the last seven games of the year. The Aggies were reasonably balanced and showed potential for both efficiency and explosiveness, particularly in the passing game.

We're using past tense here, not only because we're describing something that happened last year, but also because the hope has kind of vanished for now. Star receiver Austin Franklin was a big reason for the late-season improvement, but he's gone. So are starting quarterback Andrew McDonald, leading rusher Germi Morrison, and four-year starting tackle Davonte Wallace. There is still experience on the line, and Morrison was quite replaceable, but Franklin was a rare, explosive playmaker in Las Cruces, and the experience at the quarterback position is almost nil.

The defense could improve, if only because it couldn't get worse, but offensive regression might offset that growth.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Andrew McDonald

233

350

2511

66.6%

5.4%

6.4

King Davis III

6'1, 200

So.

N/A

371

52.0%

5.7%

6.6

Tyler Rogers

6'3, 200

So.

2 stars (5.2)

Nick Jeanty

6'2, 186

Fr.

3 stars (5.5)

Nate Grimm

6'4, 195

Fr.

2 stars (5.3)

5. Six quarterbacks

Martin identified three specific needs for his 2014 recruiting class and absolutely loaded up. Of his 25 signees, 16 were either quarterbacks (six), linebackers (six) or defensive linemen (four). And there's a very good chance that the QB portion of the depth chart will consist completely of 2014 signees. Junior college transfer Tyler Rogers and five incoming freshmen (the most highly touted of which are Nick Jeanty and Nate Grimm) join King Davis III in the battle for the starting position, but Davis is more athlete than quarterback and could get work as a running back or receiver in spring ball.

Martin and Brandon want an athletic dual-threat behind center, and we'll see which of the signees (or Davis) can both play quarterback and meet the athletic standards. Davis is evidently more latter than former, but NMSU's current quarterback search certainly signifies the difficulty in attracting necessary talent for certain offensive systems. Having a quarterback who can run gives you a numbers advantage, one more thing the defense has to account for; this could be a desperate need for an offense that seeks every advantage it can find.

But finding a QB who can give you that numbers advantage and still throw effectively is tough. Martin played the odds and stocked up in the hopes that one is a keeper.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Adj. POE
Germi Morrison	RB				109	451	4	4.1	4.2	33.0%
Brandon Betancourt	RB	5'10, 187	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	93	415	2	4.5	3.7	35.5%
Andrew McDonald	QB				84	382	4	4.5	4.0	41.7%
Xavier Hall	RB	5'8, 182	So.	N/A	48	247	2	5.1	3.9	39.6%
King Davis III	QB	6'1, 200	So.	N/A	40	193	0	4.8	6.6	32.5%
Travaughn Colwell	WR	6'3, 202	Sr.	N/A	22	77	0	3.5	4.6	31.8%
Austin Franklin	WR				14	69	0	4.9	2.8	50.0%
Marquette Washington	RB	5'10, 215	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Larry Rose	RB	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2014
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Target Rate

%SD

Yds/
Target

NEY

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Austin Franklin

WR-H

670

66.7%

20.1%

52.3%

8.6

9.2

78.1

Jordan Bergstrom

5'11, 180

Sr.

2 stars (5.4)

206

57.7%

13.4%

69.0%

4.0

-179

3.5

24.0

Joshua Bowen

WR-H

5'10, 175

Jr.

N/A

333

76.5%

13.1%

67.6%

6.5

-102

6.4

38.8

Adam Shapiro

WR-X

6'1, 192

Sr.

2 stars (5.2)

434

72.9%

12.3%

44.4%

9.0

6.9

50.6

Jerrel Brown

WR-Z

6'0, 190

Sr.

2 stars (5.2)

484

73.3%

11.6%

40.6%

10.8

109

10.9

56.5

Joseph Matthews

WR-X

6'2, 203

Sr.

2 stars (5.4)

313

56.1%

10.5%

57.1%

7.6

7.9

36.5

Brandon Betancourt

5'10, 187

Sr.

2 stars (5.4)

106

72.2%

4.6%

40.0%

5.9

-43

8.1

12.4

Perris Scoggins

66.7%

4.6%

53.3%

5.2

-49

6.3

11.0

Andrew Dean

6'3, 244

Sr.

N/A

101

73.3%

3.9%

78.6%

6.7

-24

8.0

11.8

Germi Morrison

70.0%

2.6%

25.0%

6.7

-14

3.6

7.8

Xavier Hall

5'8, 182

So.

N/A

100.0%

1.8%

16.7%

6.7

-23

3.7

5.5

Travaughn Colwell

6'3, 202

Sr.

2 stars (5.4)

25.0%

1.0%

0.0%

9.0

4.0

4.2

Anthony Joyner

6'2, 250

Sr.

2 stars (5.3)

Prentavious Morehead

6'3, 165

RSFr.

3 stars (5.5)

6. Hope in the receiving corps (for this year, anyway)

I'm not going to pretend the running game is a strength here, but -- with a line that does return 73 career starts and three players with at least one full year of starting experience and a couple of running backs in Brandon Betancourt and Xavier Hall who achieved at a level similar to Germi Morrison -- I don't see it getting worse.

The passing game, however, has some obvious question marks. The quarterback situation is blurry, but replacing Austin Franklin will also be quite the challenge. When the offense got hot late in the season, Franklin was the primary reason; he caught 34 passes for 407 yards and four scores against Abilene Christian, UL-Lafayette and Boston College. He provided a big-play threat that the next two leading targets (Jordan Bergstrom and Joshua Bowen) very much could not.

There is hope further down the list. Seniors Adam Shapiro, Jerrel Brown, and Joseph Matthews combined to average 13.5 yards per catch with a 68 percent catch rate. That's solid, and if they can maintain those averages while occupying some of Franklin's targets, the passing game might not be a lost cause. But they are indeed all seniors, so if a youngster like Prentavious Morehead wanted to break through in 2014, that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	89.1	2.71	3.55	36.8%	53.3%	20.7%	103.0	5.8%	5.2%
Rank	103	94	36	93	117	82	65	93	43

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Davonte Wallace	LT				48
Valerian Ume-Ezeoke	C	6'3, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	31
Andy Cunningham	RT	6'3, 308	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	23
Dada Richards	RT				18
Isaiah Folasa-Lutui	LG	6'3, 309	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12
Abram Holland	RG	6'2, 270	So.	2 stars (5.3)	6
Houston Clemente	OL (now DT)	6'4, 303	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	1
Spence Ueli-Faatoalia	LG	6'1, 308	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Alexander Trujillo	C (now DT)	6'2, 285	Jr.	N/A	0
Matt Ramondo	OT	6'5, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0 (on offense)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.36	121	IsoPPP+	83.7	120
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	49.6%	118	Succ. Rt. +	73.4	125
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	25.8	121	Def. FP+	91.6	122
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.8	113	Redzone S&P+	79.3	119

TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.2		ACTUAL	20.0	+4.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	125	126	126	126
RUSHING	125	125	125	120
PASSING	93	125	126	126
Standard Downs		126	124	121
Passing Downs		126	126	112

Q1 Rk	118	1st Down Rk	126
Q2 Rk	125	2nd Down Rk	122
Q3 Rk	119	3rd Down Rk	125
Q4 Rk	126

7. New blood, and not by choice

As with the offense, most of the playmaking potential from last year's team is gone. Linebackers Trashaun Nixon and Bryan Bonilla combined for 19 tackles for loss and six passes defensed; they're gone. Safety Davis Cazares had three TFLs and five passes defensed; he's gone.

As mentioned above, injuries and general absence of depth were huge issues, but the biggest problem might be that the depth really isn't any better this year. Those four players who actually played in all 12 games? All gone. Six players recorded at least 30 tackles. Five are gone. Yikes.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	79.3	3.83	3.56	47.2%	75.0%	13.8%	45.1	2.8%	4.8%
Rank	125	126	92	120	99	121	125	108	107

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Willie Mobley	NT				12	24.0	3.4%	2.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Jay Eakins	DE	6'2, 275	Sr.	N/A	11	18.5	2.7%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Stephen Meredith	JACK	6'3, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	8	15.0	2.2%	1.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Kevin Laudermill	NT				9	14.0	2.0%	1.5	1.0	1	1	0	0
Mason Russell	DE				11	13.0	1.9%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kalei Auelua	JACK	6'2, 240	So.	2 stars (5.4)	9	10.5	1.5%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nick Oliva	DE				8	10.5	1.5%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Matt Ramondo	NT (now OT)	6'5, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	7	7.5	1.1%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Kalvin Cruz	DE				7	6.5	0.9%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Houston Clemente	DT	6'4, 303	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Alexander Trujillo	DT	6'2, 285	Jr.	NR
Josh Gibbs	DE	6'5, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)

8. No hope up front

It's difficult to isolate one weakness above (below?) the others, but the defensive line was really, really bad. NMSU ranked 125th in both Adj. Line Yards and Adj. Sack Rate. Defensive ends combined for 2.5 sacks for the season, but playmaking ability was only part of the problem. The line didn't do much of anything; in David Elson's 3-4(ish) system, the line was asked to occupy blockers more than playing the ball, but that excuse only goes so far.

Willie Mobley, the line's leading tackler, was 10th on the team in tackles. Even block-occupiers should be doing more than that. As Coyer attempts to implement his defensive system, the personnel is still getting shuffled around. Nose tackle Matt Ramondo is evidently moving to offense, while Houston Clemente and Alexander Trujillo go from offense to defense. JUCO transfer Josh Gibbs will need to make an immediate contribution, but if the line improves, it will come from players already on the roster ... whoever that may be.

If the line improves a bit (not a given), then at the very least some of the potential young playmakers in the back will have opportunities to shine. Sophomore linebacker Rodney Butler made two tackles for loss and broke up a pass in a backup role and junior corner Lewis Hill and sophomore safety Kawe Johnson each got their hands on some passes last year.

With the loss of the top two linebackers and the three leading tacklers in the secondary, these units are going to be all sorts of young and flawed, but again ... the record and the output don't really matter yet. NMSU is playing for 2016, basically. Potential trumps production.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Trashaun Nixon	MIKE				12	71.0	10.2%	13.0	3.0	0	2	3	0
Bryan Bonilla	WILL				12	52.5	7.5%	6.0	0.0	0	0	1	1
Clint Barnard	LB	6'3, 240	Sr.	N/A	9	44.5	6.4%	2.5	1.0	1	0	0	0
Rodney Butler	SAM	6'1, 212	So.	2 stars (5.3)	8	25.5	3.7%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Dylan Davis	MIKE				8	14.5	2.1%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dior Moore	WILL	6'1, 222	Sr.	N/A	6	13.0	1.9%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Robert Wagner	LB	6'1, 234	So.	3 stars (5.6)	4	8.5	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Josh Smith	LB				6	7.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Derek Ibekwe	LB	6'1, 222	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
JB Copeland	LB	6'2, 205	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Davis Cazares	SS				10	81.0	11.6%	3	0	2	3	1	0
Darien Johnson	CB				12	58.0	8.3%	2	0	1	4	2	0
George Callender	NB				9	39.0	5.6%	1	0	1	0	0	0
Lewis Hill	CB	5'10, 175	Jr.	N/A	10	29.0	4.2%	0	0	1	3	0	0
Kawe Johnson	SS	5'8, 177	So.	2 stars (5.2)	10	27.0	3.9%	0	0	2	2	0	0
Thomas Warren	FS	5'11, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	7	18.5	2.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Justin Smith	FS				8	16.0	2.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kedeem Thomas-Davis	CB	5'9, 170	Jr.	N/A	6	15.0	2.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Fuller	CB				7	11.5	1.7%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Anthony Edwards	CB				5	7.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Winston Rose	CB	6'0, 174	Sr.	N/A	2	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jacob Nwangwa	DB	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)
Dalton Herrington	DB	6'2, 192	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Cayle Chapman-Brown			70	43.8	4	20	24	62.9%
Jake Capraro			8	34.1	0	0	0	0.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Brock Baca	5'10, 215	Jr.	31	56.4	11	1	35.5%
Maxwell Johnson	5'10, 185	Sr.	20	48.7	2	0	10.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Maxwell Johnson	5'10, 185	Sr.	29-32	8-8	100.0%	7-9	77.8%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Adam Shapiro	KR	6'1, 192	Sr.	26	20.5	0
Austin Franklin	KR			11	15.3	0
Joseph Matthews	PR	6'2, 203	Sr.	10	6.9	0
Darien Johnson	PR			4	7.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	124
Field Goal Efficiency	29
Punt Return Efficiency	122
Kick Return Efficiency	117
Punt Efficiency	73
Kickoff Efficiency	124
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	110

9. A lack of depth can bleed over to special teams

When you've got a defense that can't keep 11 healthy bodies on the field, the odds are pretty good that your punt and kick coverage units stink, too. You either have to use starters (and risk tiring them out further) or dip into your shallow pool of backups. And despite a punter who averaged nearly 44 yards per punt and a kicker who booted touchbacks on more than one-third of all kickoffs, NMSU's coverage units were lacking, especially on kickoffs.

Add that to a return game that had no real threats (or no blocking for those threats), and you had a pretty awful special teams unit. Maxwell Johnson appears to be a tremendous place-kicker, but that only matters so much if everything else about the unit is bad.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Cal Poly	N/A
13-Sep	at UTEP	117
20-Sep	New Mexico	116
27-Sep	at LSU	5
TBA	Georgia Southern	N/A
TBA	Texas State	114
TBA	UL-Lafayette	79
TBA	UL-Monroe	112
TBA	at Arkansas State	84
TBA	at Georgia State	125
TBA	at Idaho	120
TBA	at Troy	111

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-32.3% (123)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	0
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-6 / -8.0
TO Luck/Game	+0.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	9 (5, 4)

10. It's going to take a while

New Mexico State is going to be better in 2013. ... "Improvement" could mean making a run at bowl eligibility with wins over teams like UTEP, Abilene Christian, FAU, and Idaho (and hey, maybe an upset of visiting Minnesota or Boston College); or it could simply mean 2-10 and 120th.

I like the Doug Martin hire, and while it didn't make a lot of sense (geographically, anyway) for the Sun Belt to bring NMSU and Idaho aboard, my guilty liberal tendencies made me feel pretty happy about it. We don't know that the future will be any brighter than the past for this struggling football program, but we know that there is a future, and we know that the Aggies have a coach that wants to be their coach. That's something.

Technically, I was right in last year's preview. NMSU improved from 123rd to 122nd and from one win to two. I'm not going to predict improvement this time around, however. This team is going to be ridiculously young, and the shuffling at quarterback and on the lines shows that the coaches don't yet have all the pieces lined up how they want.

This really is a building-for-2016 situation, and the expectations should be set accordingly. If they win a couple of games, find their quarterback, and at least don't regress defensively (and yes, it is technically possible to regress), then that's probably enough for now. I admire Martin's refusal to take shortcuts, but that means the road's awfully long.