College Football

The big 2014 Idaho football preview: Risk vs. reward

Paul Petrino signed 16 junior college transfers for his 2014 Idaho recruiting class in the hopes of making quick progress in a tough rebuilding project. Will the risk pay off, or will that just speed up the arrival of the NEXT Idaho rebuilding job?

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Feb 14, 2014, 11:21am EST

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. There's no time like the present

I guess it fits the stereotype that a Petrino doesn't have a lot of patience.

Despite being separated by nearly 1,500 miles, Idaho and New Mexico State will long be linked together, both as conference mates and as kindred spirits that nearly lost their places in the Football Bowl Subdivision. When the WAC dissolved in 2012, other conference mates found landing spots in the Mountain West (Utah State, San Jose State), Conference USA (Louisiana Tech, UTSA), and the Sun Belt (Texas State).

But nobody took Idaho and NMSU. Both programs spent 2013 as independents, where scheduling nightmares indicated the programs weren't too terribly long for the FBS universe.

The Sun Belt, however, eventually threw out a pair of life preservers. Idaho and NMSU were each original members of the SBC when it began football play in 2001, and, geographical issues aside (Idaho is now conference mates with schools from Boone, NC, and Statesboro, GA), it welcomes the two schools back in 2014.

Idaho and NMSU have also shared something else in recent years: pretty bad football. This was obviously one of the leading causes of their initial conference censure. NMSU has gone 23-88 since 2005 and 12-50 since 2009. Idaho had a two-year burst of relative success under Robb Akey -- the Vandals went 14-12 in 2009-10 -- but omitting those two years, they've gone just 22-108 since 2001 and 4-32 since 2011. They ranked 109th and 113th in the F/+ rankings in 2011, 120th and 123rd in 2012, and 116th and 122nd in 2013.

Recent history has been anything but kind to these schools, but that's basically where the similarities end. Both hired new coaches before the 2013 season. One (NMSU's Doug Martin) is taking the long road to success and attempting to build mostly through high school recruits, redshirting, and development. The other (Idaho's Paul Petrino) is taking a path that is almost 180 degrees different. Of the 25 players NMSU signed in its 2014 recruiting class, 23 were high schoolers. Meanwhile, of the 24 non-grayshirts Idaho signed, eight were high schoolers. Petrino brought in 16 junior college transfers, seven of whom signed in December and are already enrolled, in an attempt to immediately change the Vandals' faded fortunes.

Neither approach is correct or incorrect, mind you, but there's no question that Petrino's approach is risky. If JUCO transfers don't create immediate improvement, then they're just going to result in another quick-fix JUCO recruiting class two years later. And the approach itself is in no way guaranteed to work; Charlie Weis brought in 15 JUCO transfers at Kansas last year, and his Jayhawks improved all the way from 104th and 1-11 to 101st and 3-9. Ron Prince brought 20 JUCOs to Kansas State in 2008, and his Wildcats went from 59th and 5-7 to ... 83rd and 5-7.

It could pay off, though. Petrino's new-old blood will mix with a roster full of experience in the trenches and at least one intriguing skill position player. Not every JUCO has to be a hit for Idaho to improve, but we'll see if the reward matches the risk.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 1-11 \| Adj. Record: 1-11 \| Final F/+ Rk: 116
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at North Texas	51	6-40	L	30.9 - 41.7	L
7-Sep	at Wyoming	102	10-42	L	15.5 - 37.8	L
14-Sep	Northern Illinois	60	35-45	L	27.9 - 25.0	W
21-Sep	at Washington State	53	0-42	L	6.8 - 46.8	L
28-Sep	Temple	98	26-24	W	25.9 - 26.7	L	-14.2
5-Oct	Fresno State	49	14-61	L	15.0 - 37.8	L	-16.6
12-Oct	at Arkansas State	90	24-48	L	19.6 - 40.7	L	-16.4
26-Oct	at Ole Miss	28	14-59	L	16.4 - 41.9	L	-22.1
2-Nov	Texas State	107	21-37	L	24.8 - 34.6	L	-16.0
9-Nov	Old Dominion	N/A	38-59	L	17.2 - 42.1	L	-20.8
23-Nov	at Florida State	1	14-80	L	29.1 - 30.1	L	-16.5
30-Nov	at New Mexico State	122	16-24	L	15.8 - 28.8	L	-14.8

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-17.4%	117	-10.7%	103	-2.8%	109
Points Per Game	18.2	117	46.8	125
Adj. Points Per Game	20.4	117	36.2	116

2. If you squint, you can see improvement

Adj. Points Per Game (first 8 games): Opponent 37.3, Idaho 19.8 (minus-17.5)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Opponent 33.9, Idaho 21.7 (minus-12.2)

Over the last four games, Idaho's adjusted scoring averages improved by about five points per game overall. Of course, the fact that this improvement includes an 80-14 loss at Florida State, a 21-point home loss to Old Dominion, and a loss, period, to New Mexico State probably tells you more about Idaho's first eight games than its last four.

Still, while the offense was still terribly below average, defensive coordinator Ronnie Lee's aggressive defense was more successfully aggressive late in the year, and while a star defensive tackle is gone, the unit could potentially build off of that.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.13	70	IsoPPP+	95.6	89
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.6%	108	Succ. Rt. +	81.6	115
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	34.2	123	Def. FP+	90.6	125
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.5	113	Redzone S&P+	70.3	123

TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.6		ACTUAL	27	+2.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	91	120	116	106
RUSHING	97	100	89	97
PASSING	67	121	123	99
Standard Downs		123	119	118
Passing Downs		93	108	23

Q1 Rk	105	1st Down Rk	120
Q2 Rk	112	2nd Down Rk	110
Q3 Rk	120	3rd Down Rk	104
Q4 Rk	116

3. Bailout options

Despite woeful inefficiency in doing so, Idaho really wanted to pass the ball in 2013. Redshirt freshman Chad Chalich began the year as a starter and proved adept at three things: completing short passes, running for six-to-eight yards, and taking a ton of sacks. He was lost with a shoulder injury midway through the season, and the less mobile (and more frequently upright) Taylor Davis took over most of the quarterbacking duties after that.

No matter who was behind center, Idaho's passing game didn't really take it anywhere. The output remained about the same when Taylor Davis was in charge of the offense, but his more explosive passing tendencies were tamped down by his inability to complete more than 46 percent of his passes.

The Vandals had a couple of bailout options, however. First, Chalich really was solid at picking his spots and getting upfield. Petrino had to rely on Chalich more than he wanted to from a playmaking perspective (he took a lot of hits because of it), but when Davis took over at quarterback, then-junior Dezmon Epps began to emerge in the receiving corps. He caught five passes for 89 yards against Ole Miss, nine for 175 against Old Dominion, and even seven for 126 against Florida State. For the season, he averaged a solid 8.1 yards per target despite being mainly a passing downs weapon.

If one or both JUCO signees at the receiver position can bring some reliability to the table, and if perhaps another youngster (perhaps sophomore Rueben Mwehla?) is able to step up a bit, Epps could be the leader of a downright strong receiving corps. Regardless, he should continue to be a decent second- or third-and-long option.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Taylor Davis

212

1324

46.2%

7.4%

5.3

Chad Chalich

6'0, 205

So.

N/A

113

184

1238

61.4%

14.0%

4.9

Joshua McCain

6'2, 185

Sr.

2 stars (5.3)

204

46.2%

18.8%

4.9

Gunnar Amos

6'1, 196

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

Jake Luton

6'6, 210

Fr.

2 stars (5.3)

4. If the arm catches up to the legs...

Chalich certainly showed hints of high-caliber quarterbacking last fall. He dominated in August scrimmages and passed Davis atop the depth chart, and he completed 40 of 68 passes for 546 yards, three scores, and no picks against NIU and Temple. He also rushed for 114 yards against Temple and, even in bad games, tended to pick his spots well in the running game. If he had played the entire season, he'd have easily been Idaho's leading rusher.

If Chalich is able to hold off senior Joshua McCain and some youngsters and remain Idaho's starter, the key for his success will be in slowly figuring out how to avoid disaster. In games not against NIU and Temple, he still completed 60 percent of his passes, but with three interceptions and only 9.9 yards per pass. He was torn between the desire to force passes into tighter windows and the need to flee the pocket to buy extra time, and like a lot of mobile quarterbacks, he struggled with sacks. Well, "struggled" is an understatement. He took 30 sacks in 214 pass attempts; by means of comparison, NIU's Jordan Lynch took 10 in 414 attempts.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
James Baker	RB				145	600	6	4.1	3.8	33.1%
Chad Chalich	QB	6'0, 205	So.	N/A	63	400	0	6.3	4.3	55.6%
Richard Montgomery	RB	5'8, 180	So.	2 stars (5.2)	59	196	2	3.3	2.6	37.3%
Jerrel Brown	RB	6'0, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	55	216	0	3.9	4.1	34.5%
Joshua McCain	QB	6'2, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	47	259	1	5.5	5.2	46.8%
Taylor Davis	QB				36	186	3	5.2	3.4	47.2%
Kristoffer Olugbode	RB	5'9, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	28	96	0	3.4	1.3	32.1%
Dezmon Epps	WR	5'10, 170	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	8	15	0	1.9	7.5	25.0%
Isaiah Saunders	RB	5'10, 216	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Elijhaa Penny	RB	6'2, 245	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2014
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Target Rate

%SD

Yds/
Target

NEY

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Dezmon Epps

WR-W

5'10, 170

Sr.

2 stars (5.2)

120

971

64.2%

31.5%

45.1%

8.1

6.7

90.1

Najee Lovett

WR-Z

428

50.7%

18.1%

65.4%

6.2

-53

6.0

39.7

Deon Watson

WR-X

6'4, 213

So.

N/A

279

54.5%

11.5%

50.0%

6.3

-38

8.4

25.9

Michael LaGrone

257

42.9%

11.0%

78.6%

6.1

-16

9.2

23.8

Richard Montgomery

5'8, 180

So.

2 stars (5.2)

176

70.8%

6.3%

53.3%

7.3

-20

10.2

16.3

Roman Runner

106

80.0%

3.9%

50.0%

7.1

-25

7.7

9.8

Justin Podrabsky

6'6, 256

Sr.

2 stars (5.4)

104

58.3%

3.1%

75.0%

8.7

8.3

9.6

James Baker

177

80.0%

2.6%

50.0%

17.7

20.6

16.4

Clayton Homme

33.3%

2.4%

100.0%

5.1

-7

0.1

4.3

Jacob Sannon

WR-X

5'11, 177

So.

2 stars (5.2)

55.6%

2.4%

33.3%

9.3

6.1

7.8

Kristoffer Olugbode

5'9, 200

Jr.

2 stars (5.2)

66.7%

1.6%

0.0%

9.2

5.3

5.1

Jake Manley

6'0, 237

Jr.

N/A

60.0%

1.3%

100.0%

2.2

-27

1.1

1.0

Jerrel Brown

6'0, 220

Sr.

2 stars (5.2)

80.0%

1.3%

0.0%

6.4

-12

0.0

3.0

Buck Cowan

WR-W

6'3, 205

So.

2 stars (5.3)

50.0%

1.0%

100.0%

5.0

-8

3.3

1.9

Jared Klingenberg

6'4, 246

Jr.

2 stars (5.2)

Rueben Mwehla

WR-Z

5'10, 198

So.

2 stars (5.3)

Jermaine Johnson

6'4, 215

Jr.

2 stars (5.2)

Kenny Torrence

5'9, 165

Jr.

2 stars (5.2)

Michael Garner

5'10, 167

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	91.4	2.95	2.95	39.1%	60.0%	21.0%	50.0	11.0%	8.1%
Rank	100	66	95	69	102	87	123	124	83

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Mike Marboe	C	6'2, 296	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	35
Cody Elenz	LT	6'4, 287	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	20
Dallas Sandberg	RG	6'5, 311	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	15
Nick Von Rotz	RT	6'5, 292	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	11
Spencer Beale	LG				10
Steven Matlock	RG	6'2, 276	So.	N/A	8
Jesse Davis	RT	6'6, 286	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	5
Mason Woods	LT	6'9, 333	So.	N/A	4
Sione Maile	LG	6'1, 293	Sr.	N/A	2
Calvin White	LT	6'5, 258	So.	N/A	0
Larry Dugan	RG				0
Brett Thompson	RT	6'5, 318	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Jerett Olson	OL	6'4, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jeff Travillion	OL	6'3, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Kato Fawkes	OL	6'4, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)

5. The line should be a strength

We don't know what the skill position roster will have to offer in 2014; Epps is exciting, there are JUCO transfers at both running back and receiver, and at the very least, Richard Montgomery and Jerrel Brown won't provide much of a drop-off (if any) in the absence of starting running back James Baker. There are options and no guarantees there.

Up front, however, is the closest thing to a guarantee on the offense. Idaho's offensive line wasn't amazing, and it benefited occasionally from timely runs by Chalich and McCain, but it did a pretty decent job of both keeping defenders out of the backfield (against the run) and creating some downfield running opportunities. As importantly, it returns four starters and 100 career starts and adds three JUCO transfers to the mix.

Three-year starting center Mike Marboe leads the way, and there's a pretty good chance that this is the best unit on the offense, and not totally in an it's-the-least-bad kind of way.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.28	113	IsoPPP+	89.7	114
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.3%	112	Succ. Rt. +	93.4	87
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	27.2	110	Off. FP+	95.5	101
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.0	119	Redzone S&P+	97.7	67

TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.8		ACTUAL	19.0	+2.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	122	97	87	105
RUSHING	103	78	72	110
PASSING	124	109	88	95
Standard Downs		97	86	108
Passing Downs		95	78	117

Q1 Rk	105	1st Down Rk	112
Q2 Rk	73	2nd Down Rk	63
Q3 Rk	112	3rd Down Rk	108
Q4 Rk	117

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	102.3	3.11	3.72	46.7%	67.4%	15.3%	120.2	5.8%	6.1%
Rank	51	88	103	118	67	109	28	33	80

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2014
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Maxx Forde

6'3, 261

Sr.

3 stars (5.5)

49.5

6.5%

10.0

4.5

QuayShawne Buckley

38.5

5.1%

15.0

6.5

Marius Burgsmueller

6'5, 273

Sr.

N/A

16.0

2.1%

2.0

0.0

Vince Keener

15.0

2.0%

0.5

Quinton Bradley

6'3, 240

Jr.

2 stars (5.2)

13.5

1.8%

2.0

Ryan Edwards

6'3, 291

Jr.

2 stars (5.2)

13.0

1.7%

1.0

0.0

Anthony Rice

6'2, 251

Sr.

2 stars (5.4)

7.0

0.9%

1.5

0.5

Tueni Luepamanu

6'1, 263

So.

2 stars (5.2)

4.5

0.6%

1.0

0.0

Alfonso Hampton

6'5, 315

Jr.

3 stars (5.6)

Max Martial

6'5, 305

Jr.

3 stars (5.5)

Kaylyn Ayers

6'4, 235

Jr.

2 stars (5.4)

Glen Antoine

6'4, 325

Jr.

2 stars (5.3)

6. Miss you, QuayShawne

I'm not going to try to convince you that Idaho's defense was good. The Vandals ranked 103rd in Def. F/+ and allowed 7.0 yards per play in eight of 12 games. Nothing about that is good. But its struggles were based in part on facing some pretty good offenses, and the unit as a whole really did improve down the stretch.

The question for 2014 is how much of that improvement was due to tackles QuayShawne Buckley and Vince Keener. Idaho's line stats were downright solid -- 51st in Adj. Line Yards, 28th in Adj. Sack Rate -- and while Buckley was not alone in his productivity, he was the leading playmaker, with 15 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks. Idaho returns six of eight linemen, but the top two tackles are gone, and we'll see how much of an impact that has on a couple of solid attackers: end Maxx Forde and linebacker Marc Millan. (Yes, Maxx with two x's. He's your new favorite player.)

Linebackers

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2014
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Marc Millan

SLB

6'1, 215

Sr.

2 stars (5.3)

76.0

10.0%

11.0

4.0

Matthew Willis

WLB

46.5

6.1%

3.5

2.0

Eric Tuipulotu

WLB

5'11, 215

Sr.

2 stars (5.3)

43.5

5.7%

1.0

0.0

Juan Martinez

MLB

6'3, 225

Sr.

2 stars (5.3)

37.0

4.9%

1.0

0.0

Broc Westlake

6'3, 225

Jr.

2 stars (5.2)

21.0

2.8%

2.5

1.0

Brandon Wells

6'0, 257

Sr.

N/A

2.0

0.3%

0.0

Daniel Peterson

6'0, 175

Jr.

2 stars (5.3)

Irving Steele

6'1, 220

Jr.

2 stars (5.3)

Ronald Perry

6'1, 215

Jr.

2 stars (5.2)

7. The front seven will still attack

You can see coordinator Ronnie Lee's intentions in the stats above. Idaho wanted desperately to attack and pulled off decent efficiency ratings (87th in Success Rate+) and drive-finishing ratings (67th in Redzone S&P+) because of these aggressive tendencies. The problem was that there wasn't enough talent on the defense as a whole to make the aggression pay off. For every successfully aggressive play, there was a devastating breakdown.

With Forde and Millan leading the way, the odds are good that the aggression isn't going to go anywhere. The question might simply be whether the massive influx of junior college transfers here -- four on the line (including three enormous tackles vying to replace Buckley), three at linebacker, four in the secondary -- can upgrade the overall talent and athleticism to the point where the risks pay off. If they do, Idaho could see a boost in three-and-outs, turnovers, etc., and put its offense in much more favorable situations.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Bradley Njoku	FS	6'1, 202	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	73.5	9.7%	2.5	0	1	2	0	0
Jayshawn Jordan	CB	5'9, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	70.0	9.2%	3	0	1	9	0	0
Trey Williams	SS				10	51.0	6.7%	2	0	3	1	0	0
Solomon Dixon	CB				5	29.5	3.9%	3	1	1	3	0	0
Roman Runner	CB				11	29.0	3.8%	3.5	1	1	1	0	0
Christian Whitehead	CB				7	24.5	3.2%	0	0	1	0	1	0
Jordan Grabski	SS	6'0, 171	So.	2 stars (5.2)	8	21.5	2.8%	3	0	0	1	0	0
Delency Parham	CB	5'11, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	9	17.0	2.2%	2	0	0	2	0	0
D'Mario Carter	FS				4	10.5	1.4%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Tom Hennessey	SS	5'11, 193	Sr.	N/A	5	7.0	0.9%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Desmond Banks	CB	6'3, 192	So.	2 stars (5.2)	3	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Armond Hawkins	CB	5'10, 175	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Chris Edwards	DB	6'2, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Marquis Hatcher	DB	5'11, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Doyin Sule	DB	6'2, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Dennis Rufas	DB	6'1, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Dorian Clark	DB	5'10, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

8. The secondary will still be shaky

You get used to reading stat lines after a while. Or I should say, you get used to understanding what they mean. A defensive lineman with a lot of tackles for loss is probably a good thing. A linebacker with a ton of tackles and minimal havoc-related stats might be good or bad thing or nothing at all. A defensive back with quite a few passes defensed might be a good thing, unless he has too many tackles to go with it.

That corner Jayshawn Jordan defensed 10 passes (one pick, nine break-ups) could be good, but the fact that he also had 70.0 tackles, third on the team, either means he was great in run support (he did have three tackels for loss) ... or the guy he was covering was catching a lot of passes. Add it to the total defensed passes, and you get the impression that defenses might not have been afraid of Jordan too much.

Regardless, Jordan and Bradley Njoku are the leaders of a secondary that, for better or worse, gets a facelift. Four of the top (well, "top") six are gone, and if JUCOs are going to have an immediate positive impact somewhere, the secondary might not be a bad place for it. When your pass rush ranks 28th in Adj. Sack Rate and your defense still ranks 109th in Passing S&P+, your secondary probably needed a facelift.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Austin Rehkow	6'3, 202	So.	75	47.8	7	15	24	52.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Austin Rehkow	6'3, 202	So.	46	61.2	16	3	34.8%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Austin Rehkow	6'3, 202	So.	26-27	8-11	72.7%	2-6	33.3%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Najee Lovett	KR			15	22.0	0
Richard Montgomery	KR	5'8, 180	So.	15	21.8	0
Dezmon Epps	PR	5'10, 170	Sr.	21	5.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	109
Field Goal Efficiency	101
Punt Return Efficiency	71
Kick Return Efficiency	82
Punt Efficiency	25
Kickoff Efficiency	120
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	69

9. 47.8

That is one mighty good punting average. That Idaho still got dominated in the field position battle is almost a crime against Austin Rehkow.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	at Florida	21
13-Sep	Western Michigan	113
20-Sep	at Ohio	108
8-Nov	at San Diego State	83
TBD	Arkansas State	84
TBD	New Mexico State	124
TBD	South Alabama	92
TBD	Troy	111
TBD	at Appalachian State	N/A
TBD	at Georgia Southern	N/A
TBD	at Texas State	114
TBD	at UL-Monroe	112

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-21.2% (117)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	0
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-8 / -7.8
TO Luck/Game	-0.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (6, 6)

10. The Hawaii of the Sun Belt

Adj. Points Per Game (Home): Opponent 33.2, Idaho 22.2 (minus-11.0)
Adj. Points Per Game (Away): Opponent 38.3, Idaho 19.2 (minus-19.1)

America's Sun Belt either stretches through the Southeast or South, depending on your definition. Moscow, Idaho, is neither South nor East, with far-away Las Cruces representing its closest in-conference stop. A few years ago, Idaho was a conference rival with Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, and Utah State. Now, it is the Hawaii of the Sun Belt, the strange, far-away stop that other conferences have to make every couple of years. The Vandals will travel to Georgia Southern for a conference road game this year, also hosting South Alabama and Troy.

That's nuts. But for an iffy team, long travel and a unique home field advantage might not be a bad thing.

If the JUCOs take hold to any degree, there are enough other interesting pieces here -- Chad Chalich, Dezmon Epps, a decent offensive line, Maxx Forde, Marc Millan -- to turn the Vandals into perhaps a team in the No. 95-110 range. And if they get to that level, they are looking at winnable home games against WMU, NMSU, Troy, and perhaps either South Alabama or Arkansas State. And despite the distance, none of four conference road games are out of reach.

Petrino took a hard swing at immediate improvement with his 2014 recruiting class, and there's a possibility that he could manufacture a four- or five-win season with it, with the promise for more in 2015. But if they aren't able to make much of an immediate impact, then we're looking at basically the same team and a perpetuated rebuilding job.