College Football

The big 2014 Texas State football preview: Building is hard

Texas State's defense was a major liability in 2012. The Bobcats improved dramatically on that side of the ball last fall but regressed on offense. Is this the year both units move forward at the same time?

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Feb 17, 2014, 10:01am EST

SB Nation 2014 College Football Countdown

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1. Like moving sand

Taking over a rebuilding (or simply building) project, you know a few things in advance. You know you're probably inheriting a bad team. Perhaps that means a total lack of talent across the board, or maybe you're lucky and it only means one of two units stinks. Maybe your recruiting base is limited. Maybe fan or administration support is tepid.

No matter what, in most cases you know you're inheriting a pretty tough job. Meanwhile, even when you engineer some improvement here or there, it's rarely linear. You don't typically get better one year, then get better the next and the next and the next.

Just ask Rice head coach David Baliff, who coached Texas State for three seasons from 2004-06. His Bobcats went 5-6, 11-3, and 5-6. His successor, Brad Wright, went 4-7, 8-5, 7-4, and 4-7.

Dennis Franchione had to know what he was getting into when he took the TXST job in 2011. First of all, the Bobcats' history suggests how difficult it is to build and sustain success in San Marcos. Second, Franchione's been around the block. He built either major winners or turnaround successes at Pittsburg State, New Mexico, TCU, and (ever-so-briefly) Alabama. He even steadied the ship at Texas State for a couple of years two decades ago. He knows how to rebuild, and he knows how many things have to go right for you to both improve and stay improved.

In 2012, Texas State began full-time FBS play and posted a higher level of quality than might have been expected. The Bobcats went just 4-8 but ranked 99th in the F/+ rankings, ahead of BCS-conference teams like Kansas, Auburn, Wake Forest, Illinois, Kentucky, and Colorado. They were also a few steps ahead of fellow FBS newbies UTSA (No. 116), South Alabama (No. 118), and UMass (No. 122). The offense was salty, but the defense was hopeless. With an improved D, TXST could have potentially expected to quickly move into the upper half of the Sun Belt hierarchy.

The defense indeed improved in 2013. The Bobcats stiffened up against the run, swarmed to the ball, and improved all the way to 82nd. The offense, meanwhile, suffered from injuries and youth at quarterback, forgot how to pass, and sank to 120th in Off. F/+. A better record in close games meant TXST improved to 6-6 overall, but the Bobcats sank to 107th, and a string of three consecutive blowout losses ended their season.

Building a successful program is like pushing sand up a hill. You address problem areas here, and you lose ground over there. You build depth in one unit, and you get wrecked by injuries in another.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-6 \| Adj. Record: 3-9 \| Final F/+ Rk: 107
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at Southern Miss	120	22-15	W	11.1 - 29.5	L
7-Sep	Prairie View A&M	N/A	28-3	W	17.9 - 27.3	L
21-Sep	at Texas Tech	43	7-33	L	13.1 - 26.3	L
28-Sep	Wyoming	102	42-21	W	34.4 - 19.1	W
5-Oct	at UL-Lafayette	86	24-48	L	16.5 - 35.7	L	-9.0
12-Oct	UL-Monroe	109	14-21	L	21.9 - 11.9	W	-3.3
19-Oct	Georgia State	121	24-17	W	28.0 - 29.4	L	-1.7
26-Oct	South Alabama	68	33-31	W	30.1 - 29.8	W	1.0
2-Nov	at Idaho	116	37-21	W	20.8 - 30.4	L	-4.0
16-Nov	at Arkansas State	90	21-38	L	27.4 - 33.5	L	-1.4
23-Nov	Western Kentucky	77	7-38	L	4.9 - 25.6	L	-7.5
29-Nov	at Troy	105	28-42	L	26.7 - 38.0	L	-9.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-18.6%	120	-4.2%	82	+1.2%	41
Points Per Game	23.9	93	27.3	71
Adj. Points Per Game	21.1	112	28.0	68

2. Good in the middle

Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): Opponent 27.7, TSU 14.0 (minus-13.7)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): TSU 26.2, Opponent 25.2 (plus-1.0)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Opponent 31.9, TSU 20.0 (minus-11.9)

TXST got off to a relatively fast start in 2013, in part because the schedule allowed it. The Bobcats reached 6-3 with a run of solid performances, but an injury to freshman quarterback Tyler Jones spelled doom late in the year.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.09	88	IsoPPP+	88.4	116
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.6%	86	Succ. Rt. +	81.3	116
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.2	35	Def. FP+	97.4	84
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	56	Redzone S&P+	91.4	94

TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.7		ACTUAL	17	-1.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	113	121	117	124
RUSHING	65	107	112	102
PASSING	114	120	116	121
Standard Downs		116	112	106
Passing Downs		123	123	119

Q1 Rk	116	1st Down Rk	113
Q2 Rk	115	2nd Down Rk	121
Q3 Rk	123	3rd Down Rk	122
Q4 Rk	103

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Tyler Jones

6'2, 197

So.

2 stars (5.3)

100

160

1130

62.5%

6.4%

6.1

Tyler Arndt

452

53.5%

6.5%

4.5

Duke DeLancellotti

212

35.9%

2.5%

5.1

Fred Nixon

6'3, 200

So.

3 stars (5.5)

Randy Price

6'3, 190

Jr.

2 stars (5.2)

3. Play to your strengths ... or away from your weaknesses

In 2012, with quarterback Shaun Rutherford and running back Marcus Curry leading the way, TXST put together a top-50 running game. The Bobcats attempted to pass frequently on standard downs to keep defenses from focusing on the run, and it tended to work for a while before puttering out.

In 2013, both the names and identity changed. Quarterback Tyler Jones was a decent runner, and a trio of running backs (Robert Lowe, Chris Nutall, and Terrence Franks) proved worthy of a lot of carries, but instead of attempting to back defenses up with early-down passing, TXST just went run-first, run-second instead.

This was done in part because rushing was a strength, and in part because passing was a major weakness. Jones could complete passes, but they didn't really go anywhere, and when he was out, backups Tyler Arndt and Duke DeLancellotti were more or less disasters, completing 48 percent of their passes with a four-percent interception rate.

When you put your offense in the hands of a freshman, you know what you're getting yourself into; TXST accepted growing pains right from the start. Still, the passing game went from liability to disaster, and any gains for the running game rather quickly dried up.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Robert Lowe	RB	5'10, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	164	945	9	5.8	5.4	41.5%
Chris Nutall	RB	5'8, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	83	477	6	5.7	5.6	48.2%
Tyler Jones	QB	6'2, 197	So.	2 stars (5.3)	78	341	0	4.4	3.8	39.7%
Terrence Franks	RB	5'10, 210	Sr.	NR	42	196	2	4.7	5.7	33.3%
Duke DeLancellotti	QB				20	96	3	4.8	2.5	45.0%
Jordan Moore	QB				20	43	0	2.2	4.4	40.0%
Tyler Arndt	QB				16	49	1	3.1	3.4	31.3%
Tim Gay	RB	5'11, 231	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	9	70	1	7.8	13.9	33.3%
C.J. Best	RB	5'10, 172	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	4	27	0	6.8	5.5	50.0%
Jamel James	RB	5'11, 239	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Stedman Mayberry	RB	5'11, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

4. The running game could thrive with just a little help

Lowe, Nutall, and Franks combined for 24 carries and 135 yards per game; all three return, as do most of the pieces from last year's OL two-deep. The line has seven players with starting experience and 88 career starts. Combine that with the healthy return of Tyler Jones (and the signing of Tyler JUCO QB Randy Price for competition), and you've got the makings of a healthy backfield and stellar running game ... as long as the passing game is able to something. Anything.

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2014
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Target
Rate

%SD

Yds/
Target

NEY

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Isaiah Battle

WR-H

259

56.3%

18.0%

58.7%

5.4

-92

5.4

28.5

Andy Erickson

WR-Z

273

65.9%

15.4%

41.7%

6.7

-50

5.8

30.0

Brandon Smith

WR-X

6'2, 170

Jr.

2 stars (5.4)

241

53.7%

15.4%

54.5%

5.9

-52

4.6

26.5

Bradley Miller

6'5, 229

Sr.

3 stars (5.5)

311

61.5%

14.6%

54.1%

8.0

8.4

34.2

Ben Ijah

WR-X

6'3, 210

Sr.

209

55.2%

10.9%

32.0%

7.2

-1

8.8

23.0

Robert Lowe

5'10, 195

Jr.

3 stars (5.6)

164

79.2%

9.0%

33.3%

6.8

-44

4.4

18.0

Terrence Franks

5'10, 210

Sr.

183

46.7%

5.6%

57.1%

12.2

13.1

20.1

Ryan Carden

6'4, 235

Jr.

2 stars (5.3)

87.5%

3.0%

42.9%

8.8

-3

7.5

7.7

Jafus Gaines

5'11, 170

Jr.

3 stars (5.5)

66.7%

2.2%

66.7%

4.5

-21

4.6

3.0

David Lewis

6'4, 257

Sr.

60.0%

1.9%

100.0%

8.8

4.7

4.8

Chris Nutall

5'8, 190

Jr.

2 stars (5.4)

100.0%

1.9%

40.0%

9.6

-2

11.1

5.3

Ryan Garrey

WR-Z

5'11, 180

Jr.

50.0%

0.7%

N/A

2.5

-9

0.0

0.6

Terrell Smith

6'2, 200

Sr.

100.0%

0.7%

N/A

4.0

-12

0.0

0.9

Michael Gilmore

WR-H

5'7, 150

Sr.

100.0%

0.4%

100.0%

9.0

-1

5.0

1.0

Brice Gunter

6'3, 201

RSFr.

3 stars (5.5)

Demun Mercer

6'2, 195

RSFr.

3 stars (5.5)

P.J. Anderson

6'2, 184

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

5. Just ... a little ... help

Losing your top two receivers is never a particularly good thing, but when the two combined to average 6.0 yards per target, one can probably assume you're not going to miss them too terribly much. Jones was able to complete short passes to Isaiah Battle and Andy Erickson relatively frequently, but the payoff was both minimal and replicable.

And with every other receiver returning and two three-star redshirt freshmen entering the mix, it's not hard to assume this unit improves a decent amount. Now the quarterback position has to as well.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	87	2.8	3.32	41.2%	57.5%	21.7%	107.6	5.2%	4.4%
Rank	111	83	55	43	111	102	59	79	28

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Charlie Will Tuttle	LG	6'2, 297	Sr.	NR	28
Matt Freeman	C	6'2, 271	Jr.	NR	17
Zach Crawford	RG	6'2, 302	Jr.	NR	17
Devin Baker	LT				16
Adrian Bellard	RT	6'5, 345	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12
Ryan Melton	RT	6'5, 339	So.	2 stars (5.4)	6
Mike Yoder	LG				5
Collin Fissell	C	6'2, 297	Sr.	NR	5
Jackson Costello	LT	6'4, 299	Jr.	NR	3
Tyler Potter	RG				1
Felix Romero	RG	6'4, 303	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.10	47	IsoPPP+	102.9	47
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.1%	39	Succ. Rt. +	94.1	81
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	33.1	9	Def. FP+	101.4	54
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	66	Redzone S&P+	88.8	89

TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.3		ACTUAL	19.0	+0.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	59	85	81	66
RUSHING	41	85	85	83
PASSING	91	84	77	52
Standard Downs		92	89	41
Passing Downs		66	56	77

Q1 Rk	50	1st Down Rk	78
Q2 Rk	104	2nd Down Rk	110
Q3 Rk	97	3rd Down Rk	77
Q4 Rk	84

6. Opponents chose to pass

Texas State's ability to avoid breakdowns improved dramatically in 2013. The Bobcats were a top-50 team when it came to preventing big plays, and a lot of that was because of safety play in the passing game. The three experienced safeties in Craig Haivar's 4-2-5 alignment brought both play-making and play-preventing potential to the table; Aaron Matthews, Colby Targun, and Justin Iwuji combined for eight tackles for loss and 14 passes defensed to go with their part of TXST's drastic overall defensive improvement.

Still, opponents did choose to pass rather frequently against the Bobcats. Part of that has to do with the schedule at hand -- if you play in the Sun Belt, and you take on Texas Tech in non-conference, you're going to face a lot of passes -- but opponents passed far more than the national averages. As was the case in 2012, TXST still had no semblance of a pass rush, and the Bobcats' generally passive approach on standard downs still opened the door for a lot of eight-yard passes if nothing else.

There was still work to be done, in other words, and it will be interesting to see if Texas State can make more defensive progress despite nearly starting over on the line and in the secondary.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	91.8	2.94	3.23	34.6%	73.5%	15.0%	62.6	2.2%	5.2%
Rank	96	64	57	22	97	113	115	115	97

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Blake McColloch	NT				11	27.0	4.0%	4.0	2.0	0	4	1	0
Michael Odiari	DE	6'0, 245	Sr.	NR	10	25.5	3.8%	5.0	3.0	0	2	0	0
Jamie Clavell-Head	DE				11	21.0	3.1%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Kamu Taulelei	NT				10	17.0	2.5%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
D.J. Yendrey	DT				6	14.5	2.2%	2.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Jordan Norfleet	DE				7	10.0	1.5%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Dallas, Jr.	DE	6'4, 236	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	5	5.0	0.7%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Dallas McClarty	DT	5'11, 294	So.	2 stars (5.3)	3	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Will Trevillion	DT	6'1, 280	So.	2 stars (5.3)	2	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Booth	NT	6'5, 262	So.	2 stars (5.2)	3	2.5	0.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Roosevelt Pearson	DE	6'5, 255	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Dondre Elvold	DT	6'4, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Brian Guendling	DE	6'4, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Toni Pulu	DE	6'3, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Steven Eddings	DE	6'5, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Mershad Dillon	DT	6'3, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Cedric Gambrell	DE	6'6, 235	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. Starting over up front

Texas State's run defense wasn't exactly amazing in 2013, but it did improve. The linebackers were outstanding play-makers, especially for the scheme (4-2-5 linebackers don't always dominate the havoc-related portions of the box score), and despite injuries, the line was pretty deep with experience.

Experience in college football, of course, is a double-edged sword; it can assist you greatly, but it's guaranteed to disappear soon, and in 2014 TXST is tasked with replacing five of the six linemen who logged at least 10 tackles in 2013.

Franchione saw this coming and loaded up. He signed six junior college linemen in an attempt to stem the damage, and if at least 2-3 of them are ready to make noise at the start of 2014, the Bobcats could potentially survive without much of a drop-off. End Michael Odiari is undersized but aggressive, but he'll need some help from some instant-impact players.

Linebackers

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2014
Year

Rivals

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

Damion McMiller

MIKE

75.0

11.2%

4.0

1.5

David Mayo

MIKE

6'2, 228

Sr.

2 stars (5.4)

74.5

11.1%

4.5

1.0

Michael Orakpo

SAM

6'1, 226

Sr.

2 stars (4.9)

60.0

9.0%

10.0

4.5

Stephen Smith

MIKE

6'3, 214

So.

2 stars (5.4)

14.5

2.2%

1.0

0.0

Jerrid Jeter-Gilmon

SAM

6'1, 229

Jr.

3 stars (5.5)

11.0

1.6%

3.0

0.0

Andrew Hamilton

6'0, 220

Sr.

5.5

0.8%

0.0

8. The Sun Belt's best linebackers?

Uncertainty looms at the front and back of this defense. The defensive line is rebuilding, and of the three safeties mentioned above, two (Matthews and Iwuji) are gone. There are some intriguing names waiting in the wings in the secondary -- David Mims II, Dila Rosemond -- but not as many sure things.

That said, the linebacking corps is one of the best in the mid-major ranks, and that will help quite a bit. Damion McMiller is gone, but in David Mayo and Colorado State transfer Michael Orakpo, TXST has a wonderful pair of play-makers; the two combined for 14.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, seven defensed passes, and three forced fumbles in 2013. Mayo is the sideline-to-sideline mess-cleaner, and Orakpo is a wrecking ball. Throw in a couple of promising young backups in Stephen Smith and Jerrid Jeter-Gilmon, and you've got an awesome unit. We'll see how much it can make up for the issues elsewhere.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Aaron Matthews	FS				12	77.0	11.5%	1.5	0	1	5	0	0
Colby Targun	WS	5'11, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	47.0	7.0%	3	0	1	2	0	0
Craig Mager	CB	5'11, 190	Sr.	NR	12	44.5	6.6%	1	0	0	9	1	1
Xavier Daniels	CB				12	36.5	5.5%	2.5	0	1	7	0	0
Justin Iwuji	S				11	30.0	4.5%	3.5	0	3	2	0	0
David Mims II	CB	5'11, 198	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	9	18.0	2.7%	2	0	0	1	0	0
Damani Alexcee	WS	6'2, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	6	13.5	2.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Germod Williams	FS	5'10, 159	So.	3 stars (5.5)	4	6.5	1.0%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Brandon Jones	S	6'2, 209	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)
Zach Veliquette	S	5'10, 195	Sr.	NR
Donta Clanton	CB	5'10, 191	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)
Trey Garrett	S	6'0, 177	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)
Dila Rosemond	DB	5'10, 175	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Devondrick Dixon	DB	5'11, 165	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Will Johnson	6'3, 209	Sr.	41	44.0	5	14	19	80.5%
Zach Robinson			30	44.6	1	5	11	53.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Will Johnson	6'3, 209	Sr.	56	64.1	38	0	67.9%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jason Dann	6'0, 205	Sr.	21-22	5-5	100.0%	4-5	80.0%
Will Johnson	6'3, 209	Sr.	13-13	0-1	0.0%	0-4	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Brandon Smith	KR	6'2, 170	Jr.	20	29.9	2
Andy Erickson	KR			8	21.1	0
Andy Erickson	PR			20	14.2	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	41
Field Goal Efficiency	70
Punt Return Efficiency	27
Kick Return Efficiency	64
Punt Efficiency	18
Kickoff Efficiency	92
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	40

9. Winning field position

Texas State was one of the better field position teams in the Sun Belt last season. Forcing 19 turnovers helped in that regard, but the Bobcats dominated in the punting game on both ends of the field. Punter Will Johnson beautifully mixed depth and height on his kicks, while Andy Erickson was one of the best return men in the country.

Johnson returns, as does a decent place-kicker in Jason Dann; plus, exciting Brandon Smith is back to return kickoffs. It's conceivable that TXST can put together another nice special teams unit without Erickson, though he's certainly tough to replace.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	UA-Pine Bluff	NR
13-Sep	Navy	67
20-Sep	at Illinois	61
27-Sep	at Tulsa	64
TBD	Arkansas State	84
TBD	Georgia Southern	NR
TBD	Idaho	120
TBD	UL-Lafayette	79
TBD	at Georgia State	125
TBD	at New Mexico State	124
TBD	at South Alabama	92
TBD	at UL-Monroe	112

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-19.2% (114)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	88
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	2 / -0.5
TO Luck/Game	+1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (8, 4)

10. Clean up one mess...

The offense should be in much steadier hands in 2014. There is both experience and competition at the quarterback position, and with minimal assistance from the pass, the running game should be strong. Texas State should expect to improve quite a bit from last year's No. 120 Off. F/+ ranking.

But will that lead to overall growth, or will it simply offset regression on the defense? You can build a solid mid-major defense around David Mayo and Michael Orakpo, but only if the line and secondary aren't outright liabilities. I'm not that worried about the secondary, but the line needs immediate help from the 2014 recruiting class, and that's sometimes a scary proposition.

If TXST can improve back to the No. 95-100 range, the Bobcats could once again eke out bowl eligibility. But getting too far beyond six wins will depend on a couple of upsets. Still, that I say that as a bad thing -- a third-year FBS program is decent but might not go bowling! -- tells you quite a bit about the job Franchione has done to date.

Building a program is hard, and in 2013, TXST managed to take a step backwards but still sneak out six wins. This program is getting healthier, even if there's still quite a bit of sand to push up the hill.