College Football

The big 2014 South Alabama football preview: Jaguars have risen quickly

Surprise! South Alabama was actually quite salty last year, but some close-game struggles probably kept you from noticing. Regardless, the Jaguars could very well be a Sun Belt contender in just their third FBS season.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Feb 19, 2014, 10:00am EST

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. One of these things ... not like the others ...

The middle of the F/+ rankings give us a look at the most average of average in college football -- the decent BCS teams in a conference full of better-than-decent squads, the successful mid-majors who separated themselves from the scrap heap, etc. You've got Minnesota, Indiana, Northwestern, Penn State, and Illinois from the Big Ten, all between 55th and 71st. You've got Ball State, Northern Illinois, and Toledo from the MAC, all between 57th and 62nd. You've got Pittsburgh, Maryland and Boston College from the ACC, and you've got Rice, Tulane, and UTSA from Conference USA. Major-conference teams hovering around .500 and mid-majors hovering around eight wins -- that's what you'd expect from the pudgy middle of the Football Bowl Subdivision.

You've also got South Alabama at 68th, just ahead of Illinois and Tennessee, ahead of C-USA champion Rice, and just behind teams like Maryland, BC, and Cincinnati. USA went 4-3 in the Sun Belt, a conference lower than C-USA on the totem pole, and finished 6-6 overall.

You might remember when the Jaguars nearly beat Tennessee in late-September, but that's probably the only time you noticed them. They lost to Southern Utah and Texas State and got whipped by Navy. They reached 6-6 in just their second season in FBS, which is an accomplishment in and of itself, but how in the world did they get to 68th? That's the territory of teams that managed to frequently look solid but never look too good.

For starters, USA mastered the art of the close loss. The Jaguars went 2-5 in one-possession games; they were closer to 10-2 than 3-9. They were two or three plays away from a run at the Sun Belt title. (The Sun Belt co-champions, by the way, ranked 86th and 90th.)

Outliers exist, and perhaps USA's inclusion this high on the list was an accident; the Jaguars did get a bit of an artificial bump in whipping a UL-Lafayette squad that was without star quarterback Terrance Broadway, after all. But that was only a minor bump, and the Jaguars spent most of the season hovering between 60th and 80th. This was a legitimately decent team.

One of the things F/+ is pretty good at is picking up on budding programs before the eyeball does. Texas A&M and Notre Dame each ranked much higher than it seemed they should have in 2011, then broke through in 2012. Michigan State was 15th in 2012 while finishing just 7-6, ahead of 10-win teams like Nebraska, Boise State, Clemson, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Northwestern; the Spartans broke through in a major way in 2013. Perhaps South Alabama is the mid-major example of such a team ready to make much louder noise in a short amount of time?

Perhaps. But the Jaguars must replace quite a few key members of the 2013 squad before a breakthrough can occur.

2. So now what?

Quarterback Ross Metheny, who passed for 2,600 yards and rushed for more than 700 (not including sacks) is gone, but just about everybody else of note returns on the offensive side of the ball. The major areas of concern come on the defense, where a fast, active and undersized front seven must replace six of nine on the line and four of six at linebacker.

Head coach Joey Jones, an Alabama alum, has attempted to follow the Mini-Alabama model pretty closely. Defensive coordinator Kevin Sherrer was Nick Saban's director of player development in Tuscaloosa from 2010-12. Their combined résumé is based on strong, proven techniques.

Those techniques will get tested in 2014. If the defense is up to the challenge, the Jaguars could be a serious Sun Belt contender and could pose quite the challenge to Mississippi State in Mobile on September 13. Just as likely, however, is a step backwards on defense and a year of stagnation overall.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-6 \| Adj. Record: 6-6 \| Final F/+ Rk: 68
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	Southern Utah	N/A	21-22	L	21.1 - 27.4	L
7-Sep	at Tulane	70	41-39	W	41.4 - 35.3	W
14-Sep	Western Kentucky	77	31-24	W	36.5 - 25.3	W
28-Sep	at Tennessee	72	24-31	L	18.8 - 39.3	L
5-Oct	at Troy	105	33-34	L	30.8 - 29.8	W	-1.7
19-Oct	Kent State	106	38-21	W	33.7 - 35.4	L	-0.8
26-Oct	at Texas State	107	31-33	L	33.7 - 33.7	W	-2.0
2-Nov	Arkansas State	90	16-17	L	24.5 - 25.6	L	-4.4
16-Nov	at Navy	58	14-42	L	18.5 - 36.6	L	-4.0
23-Nov	UL-Monroe	109	36-14	W	31.4 - 22.0	W	-2.3
30-Nov	at Georgia State	121	38-17	W	28.8 - 31.4	L	-2.5
7-Dec	UL-Lafayette	86	30-8	W	24.5 - 6.7	W	+1.1

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+0.7%	57	-3.5%	80	+0.0%	70
Points Per Game	29.4	62	25.2	54
Adj. Points Per Game	28.6	61	29.0	75

3. They weren't unlucky

Obviously, the story could be different in specific games, but USA was not a team doomed by poor turnovers luck. That is sometimes the cause of poor close-game records, but for the season, as you see at the bottom of this post, the Jaguars were plus-1.1 points per game in terms of turnover luck.

Regardless, aside from the Navy initiation (welcome to FBS; it's time for you to get cut-blocked into oblivion), they were constantly competitive. The 2013 season was a great sign for the program's future, even if it didn't result in a bowl.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.21	35	IsoPPP+	101.3	53
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.7%	61	Succ. Rt. +	96.6	72
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.8	49	Def. FP+	102.4	30
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	73	Redzone S&P+	88.0	103

TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.0		ACTUAL	13	-4.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	50	71	73	70
RUSHING	60	87	91	67
PASSING	43	59	47	65
Standard Downs		63	69	49
Passing Downs		76	73	71

Q1 Rk	62	1st Down Rk	66
Q2 Rk	98	2nd Down Rk	91
Q3 Rk	105	3rd Down Rk	92
Q4 Rk	30

4. Finish

What might have hurt South Alabama as much as anything in close games was a simple inability to finish drives in the end zone. The Jaguars were 71st in terms of overall Off. S&P+, but they ranked just 103rd in Redzone S&P+ and averaged a below-average 4.2 points per trip inside the 40 against below-average competition. They settled for 1.9 field goals per game (only 13 teams averaged more per contest), and in five tight losses, they averaged just 4.0 points per trip and settled for nine field goals, missing four. One of the only things worse than settling for field goals is missing them. USA's failure to turn opportunities into points doomed them.

That can be rectified with an experienced offense and a place-kicker (Aleem Sunanon) who is no longer a freshman. But that will require the Jaguars to figure out a proper starting quarterback first.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014
Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp
Rate

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/
Att.

Ross Metheny

201

324

2622

62.0%

3.9%

7.4

Brandon Bridge

6'5, 220

Sr.

2 stars (5.2)

398

43.9%

5.7%

5.1

Trey Fetner

6'0, 225

Jr.

2 stars (5.3)

0.0%

0.0

Brett Sheehan

6'3, 175

RSFr.

2 stars (5.2)

5. Metheny was a lifeline

A former three-star signee for the Virginia Cavaliers, Ross Metheny took the South Alabama starting job around the beginning of conference play in 2012 and struggled through some growing pains (a 55 percent completion rate, 12 touchdowns to 12 interceptions, a sack rate nearing seven percent), but he was ready for (mid-major) stardom as a senior, passing for about 220 yards per game and rushing for about another 60 more. He cut his interception and sack rates almost in half, he led the Jaguars to a No. 57 finish in Off. F/+ (even with the drive-finishing issues) ... and then he was gone.

Metheny is basically the only starter not returning for USA in 2014, but quarterbacks are of course rather important. Metheny's solid efficiency keyed the Jaguars' attack, and there isn't an obvious successor. Alcorn State transfer Brandon Bridge challenged Metheny for the starting role in August but came up short, then completed only 44 percent of his passes when given the opportunity; he was used as part of a rotation in September for getting hurt, which perhaps suggests that he is the assumed starter. Still, his stat line was mixed.

Junior Trey Fetner has been used in a Wildcat role at times, and it will be interesting to see if these two are used in a dual role, or if Bridge, Fetner, or even redshirt freshman Brett Sheehan can win the job outright.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Jay Jones	RB	5'9, 190	Sr.	NR	143	737	5	5.2	4.4	41.3%
Ross Metheny	QB				119	720	10	6.1	4.9	47.1%
Kendall Houston	RB	5'10, 220	Sr.	NR	66	207	6	3.1	1.7	31.8%
Cris Dinham	RB	5'10, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	57	234	2	4.1	4.4	35.1%
Brandon Bridge	QB	6'5, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	33	209	1	6.3	9.0	39.4%
Terrance Timmons	RB	5'7, 180	Jr.	NR	16	83	0	5.2	4.1	50.0%
Julien Valentin	RB				14	43	0	3.1	2.1	28.6%
Trey Fetner	QB	6'0, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	6	20	1	3.3	3.0	33.3%
T.J. Glover	WR	5'9, 170	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	4	6	0	1.5	3.0	25.0%
Kaleb Blanchard	RB	6'0, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Xavier Johnson	RB	5'11, 170	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player

Pos.

Ht, Wt

2014
Year

Rivals

Targets

Catches

Yards

Catch Rate

Target
Rate

%SD

Yds/
Target

NEY

Real Yds/
Target

RYPR

Shavarez Smith

WR-Z

6'1, 200

Sr.

2 stars (5.4)

928

58.8%

23.4%

62.8%

10.9

294

11.7

127.5

Jereme Jones

WR-A

5'8, 165

Sr.

2 stars (5.1)

458

58.0%

19.0%

57.4%

6.6

-53

7.0

62.9

Wes Saxton

6'4, 240

Sr.

3 stars (5.7)

635

72.5%

19.0%

63.6%

9.2

9.4

87.2

Danny Woodson

6'1, 210

Jr.

4 stars (5.8)

439

68.4%

10.4%

50.0%

11.6

134

11.9

60.3

Bryant Lavender

WR-X

265

62.2%

10.2%

40.0%

7.2

-19

7.0

36.4

Jay Jones

5'9, 190

Sr.

135

66.7%

7.4%

59.3%

5.0

-79

5.0

18.5

Cris Dinham

5'10, 210

Sr.

2 stars (5.2)

85.7%

1.9%

28.6%

5.0

-29

4.2

4.8

Corey Waldon

WR-X

33.3%

1.6%

0.0%

4.3

-10

1.7

3.6

Jake Howton

6'1, 190

Sr.

2 stars (5.4)

66.7%

1.6%

33.3%

4.5

-21

7.3

3.7

Rush Hendricks

6'3, 235

Sr.

40.0%

1.4%

100.0%

0.8

-28

0.7

0.5

T.J. Glover

WR-A

5'9, 170

Sr.

2 stars (5.4)

80.0%

1.4%

100.0%

2.6

-31

1.5

1.8

Kendall Houston

5'10, 220

Sr.

50.0%

1.1%

0.0%

2.0

-20

1.8

1.1

Ryan Onkka

6'4, 240

Sr.

33.3%

0.8%

100.0%

0.7

-16

0.4

0.3

Davin Hawkins

6'2, 230

Sr.

100.0%

0.5%

100.0%

22.5

12.5

6.2

Dejon Funderburk

5'11, 160

RSFr.

3 stars (5.6)

Caleb Alves

6'3, 175

RSFr.

2 stars (5.4)

Claude Garrett

6'3, 215

Jr.

2 stars (5.3)

Braedon Bowman

6'4, 210

Jr.

6. Inheriting riches

If the quarterback situation is resolved, there might not be another obvious, unanswered question for this offense. The top three rushers all return, as do the top four pass targets and five linemen with extensive starting experience.

The run game could still stand to improve a bit; short-yardage execution was woeful (USA was 126th in Power Success Rate, which certainly helps to explain the Jaguars' drive-finishing issues), and none of the returning leading rushers showed much in the way of explosiveness. Jay Jones was efficient, getting at least five yards downfield on over 40 percent of his carries, but if Kaleb Blanchard, the gem of the 2013 recruiting class, is ready, he could pretty easily surpass Kendall Houston and Cris Dinham for playing time.

It's difficult to find too many weaknesses with the receiving corps, however. Shavarez Smith is one of the best home run threats in the mid-major ranks, while tight end Wes Saxton and Danny Woodson II, a former Alabama signee, make for a hell of a possession duo. The offensive tackles are both returning all-conference performers as well. This offense is ready to roll ... as long as there's a quarterback around to drive.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.6	3.02	2.75	40.2%	45.2%	21.9%	115.0	4.4%	4.1%
Rank	89	54	109	58	126	106	51	59	23

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Chris May	RT	6'5, 290	Jr.	NR	19	1st All-SBC
Ucambre Williams	LT	6'2, 290	Sr.	NR	17	2nd All-SBC
Melvin Meggs	RT	6'3, 310	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	32
Shaun Artz	RG	6'5, 295	Sr.	NR	23
Drew Dearman	LG	6'3, 310	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	22
Matt Calcagnini	C				12
Darius McKeller	LT	6'6, 325	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Shane Doty	LG	6'4, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Joseph Scelfo	C	6'1, 290	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Steven Foster	RG	6'3, 310	So.	2 stars	0
Daniel Aust	RT	6'2, 280	So.	2 stars	0
Curtis Williams	OL	6'4, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.13	57	IsoPPP+	92.9	101
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.0%	54	Succ. Rt. +	94.2	79
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.4	67	Def. FP+	100.5	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.1	62	Redzone S&P+	96.0	74

TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.4		ACTUAL	18.0	-1.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	51	91	79	98
RUSHING	56	89	74	69
PASSING	56	88	95	118
Standard Downs		75	71	70
Passing Downs		102	104	113

Q1 Rk	59	1st Down Rk	79
Q2 Rk	96	2nd Down Rk	112
Q3 Rk	79	3rd Down Rk	45
Q4 Rk	112

7. ATTAAAAACK

On a play-for-play basis, South Alabama's defense wasn't particularly great in 2013, but it was certainly active. The Jaguars gave up a few too many big plays and allowed at least 5.7 yards per play seven times in 12 games; they ALSO finished fourth in Adj. Sack Rate and 18th in the Havoc stat referenced above (percentage of plays with a tackle for loss, forced fumble or pass defensed). If you can't beat an offense on most plays, make the most of the wins you get.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	91	3.22	3.67	39.7%	71.4%	15.5%	166.4	8.7%	10.8%
Rank	101	99	102	70	90	106	4	2	6

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alex Page	DE				12	37.5	5.4%	14.0	7.5	1	2	0	0
Romelle Jones	NT				11	30.0	4.3%	13.0	7.0	0	0	1	0
Pat Moore	JACK				12	26.0	3.7%	14.0	6.0	0	4	2	0
Jesse Kelley	NT	5'10, 270	Sr.	NR	12	25.5	3.7%	6.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Jerome McClain	NT	6'3, 275	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	22.5	3.2%	4.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Montavious Williams	NT				11	19.0	2.7%	4.5	4.0	0	1	0	0
Theo Rich	JACK	6'2, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	9	13.5	1.9%	2.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Ceasare Johnson	DE				4	4.0	0.6%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Randon Carnathan	DT				2	2.5	0.4%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
DeMarion Harper	DT	6'3, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Theo Rich	DE	6'2, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)
Bryson Johnson	DT	6'3, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Enrique Williams	MIKE				12	74.5	10.7%	7.5	1.0	0	2	2	0
Maleki Harris	SAM	6'1, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	46.0	6.6%	8.5	2.5	1	7	0	0
Bryson James	MIKE				11	23.0	3.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Clifton Crews	SAM				11	22.5	3.2%	4.5	3.0	0	3	0	0
Desmond LaVelle	MIKE	5'11, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	8	18.5	2.7%	2.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
David Hawkins	OLB				3	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cordivido Grice	ILB	6'0, 215	Jr.	NR	3	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jimmie Gipson III	OLB	6'0, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Demarius Rancifer	ILB	6'4, 205	Jr.	NR

8. Attaaaaack?

USA's front seven specialized in making plays in 2013. Three linemen recorded at least 13 tackles for loss, and six others in the front seven had at least 4.5. The Jaguars tried to come at you from every direction, and it worked more often than not.

The problem: Of the nine players with at least 4.5 TFLs, only three return. The three prolific linemen (Alex Page, Romelle Jones, Pat Moore)? All gone. Leading tackler Enrique Williams? Gone.

All is not lost. Maleki Harris is a wrecking ball in both pass coverage and near the line, and nose tackles Jesse Kelley and Jerome McClain were just as prolific as Jones on a per-opportunity basis. And players like Theo Rich and Desmond LaVelle made a play or two in backup roles. So perhaps the play-making will be equal to last year's, and if the new starters can also avoid getting pushed around quite as much, maybe that's a fair trade.

But this is a severe test of South Alabama's depth, and FBS newcomers don't tend to pass those tests. (Newcomers also don't tend to rank in the top 70 in Year 2. South Alabama did.)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Qudarius Ford	CB	5'8, 170	Sr.	NR	12	63.5	9.1%	0.5	0	2	6	0	0
Terrell Brigham	FS	6'0, 190	Sr.	NR	12	54.5	7.8%	0.5	0	0	2	1	0
Montell Garner	CB	6'1, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	47.5	6.8%	3	0	3	5	0	0
Charles Watson	SS				11	36.0	5.2%	0	0	1	3	1	0
Roman Buchanan	SS	6'2, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	29.0	4.2%	0	0	1	3	0	0
Antonio Carter	CB	5'8, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	9	21.5	3.1%	0	0	0	5	0	0
E.J. May	CB	5'10, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	9	18.0	2.6%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Tyrell Pearson	CB				6	10.0	1.4%	0	0	2	1	0	0
Steffon Fuller	FS	6'4, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	6	8.5	1.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Steven Fuller	S	6'4, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	4	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Devon Earl	S	5'10, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	4	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Charles Harris	S				4	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
DeMarrion Buford-Hughes	S	6'5, 210	Jr.	NR	3	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alonzo Long	S	5'10, 200	Sr.	NR	3	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nigel Green	DB	6'1, 160	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Marice Fluellen	DB	5'10, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Malcolm Buggs	DB	5'9, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Darian Mills	DB	5'11, 160	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

9. Plugging leaks

USA's defensive front was certainly pushed around at times, but the biggest issue for the Jaguars came in allowing big pass plays. If the pass rush didn't get to opposing quarterbacks, there were probably receivers open downfield.

With six of the top seven tacklers in the secondary (and nine of 10) returning, experience won't be an issue. Talent, however? The jury's still out on that one. Corners Qudarius Ford and Montell Garner did at least make a few plays to go with the ones they gave up (16 passes defensed, 3.5 tackles for loss), but the safeties didn't do much of anything besides making tackles 20 yards downfield. Three-star JUCO transfer Nigel Green will be asked to make an immediate impact, and three of the most highly-touted freshman signees in the 2014 class are defensive backs. There's potential for an immediate talent infusion here, but we'll see how quickly it can make a difference.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Scott Garber			51	40.7	3	16	16	62.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Aleem Sunanon	5'7, 185	So.	44	54.7	5	0	11.4%
Brandon McKee	6'1, 175	So.	29	51.8	0	1	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Aleem Sunanon	5'7, 185	So.	37-39	10-13	76.9%	8-10	80.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
T.J. Glover	KR	5'9, 170	Sr.	23	25.0	0
Terrance Timmons	KR	5'7, 180	Jr.	2	7.5	0
T.J. Glover	PR	5'9, 170	Sr.	14	6.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	70
Field Goal Efficiency	37
Punt Return Efficiency	61
Kick Return Efficiency	59
Punt Efficiency	100
Kickoff Efficiency	76
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	101

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
6-Sep	at Kent State	102
13-Sep	Mississippi State	29
22-Nov	at South Carolina	4
28-Nov	Navy	67
TBD	Georgia Southern	NR
TBD	Georgia State	125
TBD	Texas State	114
TBD	Troy	111
TBD	at Appalachian State	NR
TBD	at Arkansas State	84
TBD	at Idaho	120
TBD	at UL-Lafayette	79

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-13.6% (97)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	114
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	5 / 2.4
TO Luck/Game	+1.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (10, 5)

10. The schedule will help

The Jaguars are already the No. 3 FBS program in the state of Alabama.

Just because you were underrated one year obviously doesn't mean you're guaranteed to thrive the next. If the reasons for South Alabama's top-70 finish are now all gone, there's nothing saying the Jaguars won't fall back to 90th or worse.

USA has a decent chance of avoiding that fate, though. The quarterback and rush end positions are concerns, but Ross Metheny wasn't exactly infallible, and the backup linemen really did make some plays when given the opportunity. I don't know if I see a top-70 finish happening again, but ... top 80? 85? Why not?

A ranking of 85th or better would easily place South Alabama among the top two or three in the Sun Belt, but the schedule is rough. USA avoids ULM, but trips to Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette might preclude a Sun Belt title run. Plus, the non-conference slate features two SEC opponents and another bout with Navy, which drubbed the Jaguars last year.

Joey Jones is building something impressive rather quickly in Mobile, but it's hard to say for sure that South Alabama will end up finishing too much better than it did last year. But the Jaguars are already the No. 3 FBS program in the state of Alabama; that's impressive in and of itself.