The big 2014 Troy football preview: Larry Blakeney keeps chugging

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1. A Troy institution

Twenty-four years after leaving his post as the receivers coach for his alma mater, Auburn ... about 21 years after he took the fall for allegedly funneling money to former Auburn defensive back Eric Ramsey ... 13 years after leading Troy to FBS, having already won 76 games in 10 seasons at the FCS level and reached the FCS playoffs seven times ... 10 years after beating Missouri ... seven years after beating Oklahoma State ... Larry Blakeney and his Troy football program are still chugging along.

Blakeney will turn 67 in September, one day after his Trojans take on Georgia in Athens. His tenure at Troy is the second-longest at the FBS level, behind only Frank Beamer's at Virginia Tech. He has been around long enough to suffer the ups and downs that come with the passage of time. The Trojans fell from 12-2 in 1996 (with an FCS semifinal appearance) to 5-6 in 1997. They went 7-4 in 2001, 4-8 in 2002, 7-5 in 2004, and 4-7 in 2005. They won at least eight games for five consecutive years (with shares of five consecutive Sun Belt titles) in the middle of the last decade, then crumbled to the ground with a 3-9 campaign in 2011. They rallied back to 6-6 in 2013.

The Sun Belt is a home for damaged goods. The really good coaches probably only stay for a few years before they get called up to a bigger school. Spend too long here, and there's probably a reason why. Blakeney's two-decade presence at Troy was likely spurred by the Auburn sanctions, which rendered him unhireable for quite a while, but to say the least, he has made the most of his situation.

His last two Troy teams have been just salty (and young) enough to suggest that he could have one more push in him. Whether that comes in 2014 could depend on whether one of three intriguing quarterbacks emerges.

Well, that, and whether a wretched defense improves at least a little bit.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-6 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 105
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	UAB	115	34-31	W	28.0 - 31.4	L
7-Sep	Savannah State	N/A	66-3	W	31.5 - 18.7	W
12-Sep	at Arkansas State	90	34-41	L	32.9 - 37.3	L
21-Sep	at Mississippi State	33	7-62	L	12.1 - 41.4	L
28-Sep	at Duke	41	31-38	L	26.3 - 36.5	L	-6.9
5-Oct	South Alabama	68	34-33	W	34.6 - 34.1	W	-6.1
12-Oct	at Georgia State	121	35-28	W	23.5 - 31.5	L	-10.3
26-Oct	at Western Kentucky	77	32-26	W	34.7 - 26.4	W	-7.8
31-Oct	UL-Monroe	109	37-49	L	32.3 - 40.8	L	-3.6
7-Nov	at UL-Lafayette	86	36-41	L	28.7 - 32.8	L	-2.4
16-Nov	at Ole Miss	28	21-51	L	27.6 - 39.2	L	-4.8
29-Nov	Texas State	107	42-28	W	45.8 - 35.9	W	-1.2

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+0.3%	62	-20.6%	120	-0.3%	76
Points Per Game	34.1	31	35.9	108
Adj. Points Per Game	29.8	54	33.8	106

2. The offense came around

If you saw only one Troy game last year, it was probably the 51-21 loss to Ole Miss, in which Ole Miss gained a cool 751 yards (8.1 per play) on the Trojans' defense. It wasn't always that bad -- or, at least, Troy didn't always play offenses that good -- but that game told you everything you needed to know about Troy's limitations in 2013. The defense allowed at least 6.0 yards per play in 10 of 12 games and at least 7.0 yards per play in four.

Troy's defense ranked below the following awful defenses in the Def. F/+ rankings: New Mexico State, Georgia State, Nevada, Central Michigan, FIU, Kent State, Army, Miami (Ohio), and UMass. Those nine teams combined to go 21-87, which puts the Trojans' own 6-6 record into perspective. With just a bad defense, and not an awful one, Troy could have gone about 8-4 or 9-3. Troy lost three games by a possession or less and suffered from both bad defense and bad turnovers luck.

This is an encouraging thought, really, if you think Troy's defense can improve. The offense is in pretty good shape, and it improved by almost a touchdown over the second half of 2013.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Opponent 33.1, Troy 26.2 (minus-6.9)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 7 games): Opponent 33.0, Troy 32.5 (minus-0.5)

Replacing a four-year starting quarterback is never fun, but if a new signal caller emerges, the Trojans' offense is experienced enough to do damage. Will the defense simply undo all the damage again?

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.23	24	IsoPPP+	104.8	36
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.1%	57	Succ. Rt. +	94.0	83
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.1	31	Def. FP+	100.4	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	30	Redzone S&P+	92.3	91
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.6		ACTUAL	18	-0.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	27	74	84	45
RUSHING	91	106	106	103
PASSING	13	55	53	16
Standard Downs		98	100	58
Passing Downs		37	45	29

Q1 Rk	89	1st Down Rk	98
Q2 Rk	90	2nd Down Rk	58
Q3 Rk	52	3rd Down Rk	48
Q4 Rk	44

3. Big plays abound

When a play worked for Troy in 2013, it worked. The run game was relatively inefficient, keeping defenders out of the backfield but not getting runners very far downfield; the passing game, on the other hand, clicked. Quarterback Corey Robinson's stat line (11.3 yards per completion) and a low sack rate tell us that Troy wants to get the ball out of the quarterback's hand quickly, but that didn't stop the Trojans' top three targets from averaging 15.0, 16.9, and 13.1 yards per catch, respectively. Six Troy receivers caught at least one pass 40 yards, and the most explosive of the bunch, junior Bryan Holmes, returns.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Corey Robinson				285	421	3219	20	9	67.7%	18	4.1%	7.0
Deon Anthony				26	43	482	5	0	60.5%	1	2.3%	10.9
Dallas Tidwell	6'7, 232	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Connor Bravard	6'1, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Dontreal Pruitt	5'11, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)

4. Who takes the job?

Pretty much everything I said about Kolton Browning in Tuesday's ULM preview could be repeated in regard to Corey Robinson. A four-year starter, Robinson was behind center for Troy's fifth bowl game in seven years, it's complete collapse, and its slow rebound. The four-year starter threw for almost 14,000 yards and 81 touchdowns, and after some interception issues in his first two years (30 interceptions and a 3.0 percent interception rate), he slowly phased out the mistakes (18 and 2.2 percent).

Robinson was the face of the quick-passing Troy offense for a long time, and in 2014, not only is he gone, but so is his backup, dual-threat Deon Anthony.

The race to replace Robinson features three players who are certainly not without their strengths. Dallas Tidwell is a towering presence, a pro-style-to-the-core prospect who could be well-suited to Troy's catch-and-throw style. But he'll get competition from a pair of interesting JUCO prospects.

Connor Bravard succeeded Kansas State's Jake Waters at Iowa Western Community College and completed 62 percent of his passes with 23 touchdowns to nine interceptions in 2013. Dontreal Pruitt, meanwhile, threw for 45 touchdowns with just seven picks and a single sack while leading East Mississippi Community College to the NJCAA national championship. He averaged 15.0 yards per completion and simply dominated, but his size likely limited his recruitment options.

Of these three, the odds are pretty good that one will be ready to play at a high level in 2014. And if that's the case, the offense could be one of Troy's best, especially if a line with three returning starters (including all-conference tackle Terrence Jones) and 54 career starts can gel a bit further after a shaky 2013.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Brandon Burks	RB	5'9, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	134	675	2	5.0	3.7	44.0%
Jordan Chunn	RB	6'0, 226	So.	2 stars (5.4)	128	514	14	4.0	4.1	31.3%
Deon Anthony	QB				72	435	3	6.0	5.7	41.7%
Khary Franklin	RB	5'6, 171	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	20	103	0	5.2	5.5	40.0%
Corey Robinson	QB				17	36	1	2.1	4.2	23.5%
Daron White	RB	5'9, 181	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	15	44	2	2.9	3.8	20.0%
Chandler Worthy	WR	5'9, 170	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	8	44	1	5.5	3.5	50.0%
Michael Lindsey	RB	5'8, 160	So.	2 stars (5.4)	6	37	0	6.2	2.0	83.3%
Tim Longmire	RB	5'10, 191	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Eric Thomas	WR-X				102	66	993	64.7%	22.4%	58.8%	9.7	196	10.2	125.5
Bryan Holmes	WR	5'11, 178	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	60	40	676	66.7%	13.2%	70.9%	11.3	200	11.9	85.4
Chris Williams	WR-H				45	31	407	68.9%	9.9%	62.5%	9.0	44	9.7	51.4
Brandon Burks	RB	5'9, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	41	36	183	87.8%	9.0%	57.9%	4.5	-194	4.2	23.1
B.J. Chitty	WR	6'2, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	36	23	187	63.9%	7.9%	47.1%	5.2	-93	4.7	23.6
Chandler Worthy	WR-H	5'9, 170	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	29	25	403	86.2%	6.4%	63.0%	13.9	139	12.2	50.9
K.D. Edenfield	WR-Y	6'0, 194	Jr.	NR	28	19	251	67.9%	6.1%	75.0%	9.0	27	11.4	31.7
Jordan Chunn	RB	6'0, 226	So.	2 stars (5.4)	27	21	104	77.8%	5.9%	69.2%	3.9	-128	3.7	13.1
Felton Payton	WR-X				23	17	132	73.9%	5.0%	55.0%	5.7	-60	5.8	16.7
Wilson Van Hooser	WR-Y				22	13	188	59.1%	4.8%	40.9%	8.5	23	8.1	23.8
Deon Anthony	QB				12	9	106	75.0%	2.6%	83.3%	8.8	5	7.1	13.4
Khary Franklin	RB	5'6, 171	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	10	96	90.9%	2.4%	50.0%	8.7	-7	8.6	12.1
Trey Page	WR-Y	5'8, 180	Jr.	NR	3	2	12	66.7%	0.7%	0.0%	4.0	-12	1.3	1.5
Brett Thiesen	WR-X	5'10, 167	Sr.	NR	3	3	39	100.0%	0.7%	0.0%	13.0	9	6.2	4.9
Brandon Brooks	WR-H	6'0, 185	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Clark Quisenberry	WR	6'2, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Jarvis Bentley	WR	6'5, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Teddy Ruben	WR	5'10, 170	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Nyck Young	WR	6'2, 205	Jr.	NR
Andre Flakes	WR	5'10, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
John Johnson	WR	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)
Emanuel Thompson	WR	6'1, 178	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

5. Taking ball distribution very seriously

When it comes to intended touches (carries plus targets), Troy did a lovely job of spreading the ball around, and that should come in handy this fall. Three players certainly earned a large portion of the targets -- running backs Brandon Burks and Jordan Chunn combined for 27.5 intended touches per game, and wideout Eric Thomas averaged 8.5 -- but eight other players averaged at least 1.8 per game. Two of the big three return, as do five of the little eight. Plus, youngsters like running back Tim Longmire and any of three JUCO-transfer receivers could be ready to demand some touches, as well.

There is solid experience in all directions, but the most exciting returnee is probably in the receiving corps. Bryan Holmes had a breakout season as a sophomore, catching two-thirds of his targets and averaging nearly 17 yards per catch. His big games were huge: He caught six passes for 117 yards against Arkansas State and three for 128 against Texas State.

If we divide Troy's receiving corps into two groups, the go-long guys and the extended-handoffs guys, Holmes is the leader of the former, and the bouncy B.J. Chitty and Chandler Worthy are probably the leaders of the latter.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	87	2.59	3.55	38.2%	70.2%	19.1%	121.8	4.0%	3.8%
Rank	111	114	36	78	54	66	42	46	17

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Terrence Jones	RT	6'3, 320	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	29	1st All-SBC
Jimmie Arnold	LG				17
Dalton Bennett	LT	6'3, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12
Evan McKissack	C				11
Tommy Stephens	RG	6'3, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	6
Antonio Garcia	OL	6'6, 290	So.	2 stars (5.2)	6
Caleb Carbine	C	6'1, 280	Sr.	NR	1
Luke Lawrence	LG	6'3, 305	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
David Gross	LG	6'5, 306	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Xavier Fields	RG	6'4, 360	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Tyler Lassiter	LT	6'6, 296	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Johnathan Boring	RT	6'4, 290	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Taylor Edwards	OL	6'4, 291	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.40	123	IsoPPP+	80.5	122
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.6%	63	Succ. Rt. +	92.8	89
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.0	91	Def. FP+	97.5	88
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	108	Redzone S&P+	95.6	75
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.0		ACTUAL	11.0	-12.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	114	111	89	122
RUSHING	73	73	61	85
PASSING	123	117	108	125
Standard Downs		104	70	125
Passing Downs		117	112	121

Q1 Rk	110	1st Down Rk	104
Q2 Rk	115	2nd Down Rk	109
Q3 Rk	98	3rd Down Rk	123
Q4 Rk	114

6. Big plays abound

As good as Troy was at generating big plays on offense, [Random Troy Opponent] was even better at it. Troy's defense turned almost every offense into a juggernaut, leaking big plays like a sieve despite a solid run defense and decent pass rush. When a defense is good at a few things but still awful overall, you almost assume that things will naturally improve the next year. And maybe that will be the case. But as Troy attempts to strengthen its weaknesses, its strengths could lose equal ground.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100	2.88	3.30	37.7%	65.1%	19.2%	92.4	4.6%	6.1%
Rank	59	50	64	46	52	63	74	56	80

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tyler Roberts	DE	6'2, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	36.5	5.5%	8.0	5.5	0	0	3	1
Antonio Gillespie	DT				12	32.0	4.8%	7.5	4.0	0	1	1	0
Marty Stadom	DE				12	27.0	4.1%	7.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Lonnie Gosha	DT	6'2, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	22.5	3.4%	4.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Jadarius Garner	DE				12	17.5	2.6%	7.0	3.0	0	0	2	0
Shermane TeArt	DT				12	15.0	2.3%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Deon Lee	DE	6'3, 232	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	10.0	1.5%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Timmons	DE	6'2, 238	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	5	6.5	1.0%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Billy Dobbs	DE	6'4, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	7	6.0	0.9%	1.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
John Clark	DT				11	5.0	0.8%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Aaron Williams	DT				8	5.0	0.8%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Bryan Slater	DT	6'1, 278	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Carnell Simon	DE	6'4, 264	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jarvis Williams	DE	6'1, 245	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Vinton Harris	DT	5'11, 295	Jr.	NR
Rashad Dillard	DT	6'2, 265	Jr.	NR

7. Strength becomes weakness

It took some serious breakdowns in the passing game to drag Troy's defense down despite, as you see above, some downright mediocre run stats. Troy ranked 73rd in Rushing S&P+, 59th in Adj. Line Yards, and 46th in Opportunity Rate, which points to a run D with promise ... at least until you notice that only two of last year's top six tacklers on the line return. Tyler Roberts is a dangerous, speedy pass rusher, and one-time Arkansas signee Lonnie Gosha has shown promise as a quick play-maker on the interior.

And knowing that there would be attrition up front, Blakeney went out and signed four junior college linemen. The end position might be in decent hands, but Gosha needs a partner on the inside, be it Bryan Slater or one of the JUCO tackles.

8. Jadarius

There is no good place to mention this, so I'll just place it here. Troy got a significant reminder of the triviality of wins and losses when end Jadarius Garner was found dead on the side of a Mississippi highway on January 2. We talk about strategies and tactics and recruiting and trends and stats in these previews, but these players are all 20-year old (or so) human beings, and they'll be dealing with more than film study this year. Condolences to both the Garner and Troy football families.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Mark Wilson	MLB	6'3, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	45.0	6.8%	5.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Wayland Coleman-Dancer	LB	6'0, 212	Sr.	NR	11	37.0	5.6%	5.5	2.0	0	2	0	0
Mitchell Roland	MLB	5'11, 222	So.	2 stars (5.3)	12	22.0	3.3%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Terris Lewis	LB	6'2, 220	So.	2 stars (5.3)	12	22.0	3.3%	2.0	0.0	1	0	3	0
Eli Canton	MLB	6'1, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	9.5	1.4%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Sam Lebbie	LB	6'2, 240	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Camren Hudson	SS				12	69.5	10.5%	3.5	0	2	7	1	0
Chris Pickett	FS				11	52.5	7.9%	2	0	1	1	2	0
Chris Davis	CB	5'8, 167	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	30.5	4.6%	0	0	1	9	0	0
Ethan Davis	CB	5'10, 182	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	28.5	4.3%	2	0	0	9	1	0
Keion Payne	CB	5'11, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	28.5	4.3%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Jeremy Spikner	NB	5'10, 181	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	8	27.5	4.1%	1	0	0	1	1	0
Montres Kitchens	FS	5'11, 178	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	7	20.0	3.0%	0	0	0	2	0	0
JaQuadrian Lewis	SS	5'11, 172	So.	2 stars (5.2)	8	19.0	2.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rishad Goode	FS				9	17.5	2.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Femi Odaibo	NB	6'2, 187	Sr.	NR	4	12.0	1.8%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Joe Lofton	S	6'1, 188	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	4	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jacquez Young	CB	5'9, 174	Sr.	NR	4	5.0	0.8%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Shaq Beverly	NB	5'9, 207	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	3	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Martrez Townes	S				3	3.5	0.5%	1	0	0	1	1	0
Cardell Lue	CB	6'0, 185	So.	2 stars (5.2)	3	3.0	0.5%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Dondrell Harris	S	5'11, 185	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Julius McCall	CB	5'10, 169	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Ta'Jarvis Fuller	DB	6'1, 200	Jr.	NR
John Knight	DB	6'0, 197	Jr.	NR

9. Experience isn't always a good thing

A good portion of Troy's success will come from the ability of Blakeney, defensive coordinator Wayne Bolt, corners coach Al Pogue and safeties coach Dustin Landry to craft quick, significant improvement in the secondary. Despite seniors at both primary safety spots, Troy gave up an infinite number of big plays.

The top three cornerbacks (including starters Chris and Ethan Davis, who at least showed promise in picking off or breaking up 19 passes) and plenty of other experienced hands return and are joined by JUCO transfers Ta'Jarvis Fuller and John Night. We'll see if the return of anybody is actually a good thing.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Will Scott			56	44.5	4	12	22	60.7%
Ryan Kay	6'1, 214	So.	3	37.7	0	1	0	33.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jed Solomon	5'7, 163	Jr.	62	59.2	28	0	45.2%
Will Scott			13	56.2	1	0	7.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Will Scott			49-51	8-10	80.0%	3-5	60.0%
Jed Solomon	5'7, 163	Jr.	1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Wilson Van Hooser	KR			15	15.8	0
Brandon Burks	KR	5'9, 195	Jr.	10	18.1	0
Wilson Van Hooser	PR			6	5.8	0
Bryan Holmes	PR	5'11, 178	Jr.	5	20.6	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	76
Field Goal Efficiency	74
Punt Return Efficiency	15
Kick Return Efficiency	85
Punt Efficiency	50
Kickoff Efficiency	114
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	10

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	at UAB	115
6-Sep	Duke	55
13-Sep	Abilene Christian	NR
20-Sep	at Georgia	8
TBD	Appalachian State	NR
TBD	Georgia State	125
TBD	New Mexico State	124
TBD	UL-Lafayette	79
TBD	at Georgia Southern	NR
TBD	at Idaho	120
TBD	at South Alabama	92
TBD	at UL-Monroe	112

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-10.0% (88)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	109
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-7 / +4.3
TO Luck/Game	-4.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (6, 7)

10. Fewer than six wins would be disappointing

When your stalwart starting quarterback leaves and your defense is still an enormous question mark, it's hard to predict too much success. But the replacements at quarterback are exciting, and the winner of the job will have one hell of a supporting cast. The defense isn't going to get worse, and I think of a top-100 finish for Troy are at least decent.

Now, pretend Troy is indeed a top-100 team and look at the schedule. The Trojans should win at least three of four conference home games and at least two conference road games. Factor in wins over Abilene Christian and, in theory, UAB, and you're at seven wins with home upsets of Duke or UL-Lafayette at least a possibility.

This isn't a high bar, but a top-100 ranking and seven or eight wins would draw Troy all the way back from the malaise that briefly threw the Trojans for a loop in 2011. Blakeney's legacy is set already, but if he has one more rise to Sun Belt power in him, it begins this year.