The big 2014 Arkansas State football preview: Can Red Wolves go 4-for-4?

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1. Safe hire vs. best hire

Getting dumped is scary and scarring, even for athletic directors. If someone ditches you for a bigger school and more money, you might take the wrong lessons and decide the likelihood of your next coach leaving is a more important criterion than it should be.

One could certainly make the case that Ball State did that in hiring 62-year-old Stan Parrish when Brady Hoke left for San Diego State. UConn probably took that in consideration in hiring Paul Pasqualoni to replace Maryland-bound Randy Edsall. And flirtation with other jobs played large roles in Boston College dismissing Jeff Jagodzinski in 2008 (his replacement went 21-29) and FIU firing Mario Cristobal in 2012 (his replacement went 1-11 in 2013).

If you make a hire with "I hope he doesn't leave" in mind, you run the risk of settling. When you don't want to find somebody so good that he might become attractive to others, you voluntarily limit your options.

To be sure, there is at least a little bit of sound logic behind this. Hiring coaches is, as we often say, a crapshoot. Even successful programs might not go better than two-for-three in the hiring department. Oklahoma hired John Blake, Alabama hired Mike Shula, etc. Still, you're less likely to make even a single good hire if you filter out certain options out of fear.

Safe to say, Arkansas State is relatively fearless in this regard. Each year, when it comes time to preview the Red Wolves, I inevitably bring up two things: the Boise blueprint and a new head coach.

From 2011:

New Arkansas State head coach Hugh Freeze's resume is almost as interesting as the company he has kept ... and with some of the imports he's brought to Jonesboro, it seems the company is going to stay rather interesting. I get the distinct impression that the Most Interesting (new) (mid-major) Coach in the World is going to either be a colossal success at ASU ... or a colossal failure. Either Gus Malzahn or Todd Dodge. Honestly, anything else would be somewhat disappointing.

From 2012:

I'm pretty sure that almost every mid-major head coach hired since Boise State's January 2007 Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma has delivered a similar line. "We're going to win here! We're going to become the Boise State of the _____!" Saying it is easy. Doing it, on the other hand, has proved difficult, to say the least. (We know this because, among other things, nobody else has actually done it.) [...]

ASU has committed itself to committing itself -- the "big, hairy, audacious goals" portion of the Boise State To-Do List -- and now it has to figure out how to take the next step toward major credibility. Spring game attendance? Yeah, that costs money now. Renovations and construction? Under consideration. Serious, serious fundraising? That goes without saying. The process is underway. Now eyes shift to Malzahn.

From 2013:

Heading into 2013, ASU seems to be dealing with another glass ceiling of sorts. The Red Wolves can either hire a six-win coach and keep him until they don't want him anymore, or they can keep aiming high, keep reeling in really good, exciting, young coaches, and watching them leave for an SEC school once they have succeeded. They appear to have elected the latter.

Just over a decade ago, Bryan Harsin was a graduate assistant at Boise State. [...] At 35, the former Boise State quarterback, grad assistant, tight ends coach and offensive coordinator has become the head coach at a school that has openly yearned to follow the Boise blueprint to success.

Every time you hire a new football head coach, you are opening up the door for failure, so the odds say that if Arkansas State is forced to hire somebody new every single year, it'll eventually end up with a dud. But as Miami (Ohio) has floundered over the past decade or so, ASU has become the new Cradle of Coaches, a landing spot where an up-and-comer knows he will get strong support and probably win some games.

That ASU will be taking the field next fall with its fifth head coach in five years isn't an inherently good thing, but the Red Wolves have proven in recent years that they indeed have the system in place to handle change. If new head man Blake Anderson is worth his salt, he'll succeed in Jonesboro. And then he'll probably move on. And ASU is probably alright with that ... though if he wanted to stay more than one year, that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 90
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	UAPB	N/A	62-11	W	38.4 - 21.2	W
7-Sep	at Auburn	4	9-38	L	25.6 - 27.4	L
12-Sep	Troy	105	41-34	W	32.7 - 30.1	W
21-Sep	at Memphis	83	7-31	L	16.1 - 48.5	L
28-Sep	at Missouri	14	19-41	L	26.0 - 41.5	L	-6.0
12-Oct	Idaho	116	48-24	W	30.1 - 27.7	W	-9.0
22-Oct	UL-Lafayette	86	7-23	L	14.1 - 24.0	L	-10.6
2-Nov	at South Alabama	68	17-16	W	26.6 - 24.3	W	-10.6
9-Nov	at UL-Monroe	109	42-14	W	30.4 - 26.8	W	-3.4
16-Nov	Texas State	107	38-21	W	36.6 - 32.8	W	0.5
23-Nov	Georgia State	121	35-33	W	13.2 - 38.7	L	-5.1
30-Nov	at Western Kentucky	77	31-34	L	25.5 - 29.2	L	-3.9
5-Jan	vs. Ball State	57	23-20	W	27.1 - 17.9	W	-2.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-8.2%	96	-8.1%	95	+4.2%	4
Points Per Game	29.2	66	26.2	59
Adj. Points Per Game	26.3	78	30.0	86

2. Ups and downs

Since he produced another eight-win season and a share of the conference title, last year's head coach, Bryan Harsin, goes down as a relative success. But ASU was certainly less consistent in 2013 than it had been in 2011-12, and the overall product suffered a bit.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): ASU 32.2, Opponent 26.2 (plus-6.0)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Opponent 35.4, ASU 21.6 (minus-13.8)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 3 games): ASU 31.2, Opponent 28.0 (plus-3.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 3 games): Opponent 28.6, ASU 21.9 (minus-6.7)

Aside from a two-game glitch at Memphis and Missouri, in which the Red Wolves allowed 1,000 yards (7.8 per play) and 72 points, the defense was relatively stable. The offense, on the other hand, was all over the place. ASU averaged 6.9 yards per play against Troy and 3.6 against Memphis, 3.7 against UL-Lafayette and 6.1 against ULM. Big-plays were mostly non-existent, and ASU was left to rely on its run game and horizontal passing. Sometimes that worked out just fine; other times, not so much.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.06	104	IsoPPP+	88.3	117
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.7%	60	Succ. Rt. +	95.9	77
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.2	17	Def. FP+	104.4	15
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	57	Redzone S&P+	97.9	70
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	13.9		ACTUAL	14	+0.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	66	90	78	98
RUSHING	23	80	78	53
PASSING	91	89	68	111
Standard Downs		84	75	109
Passing Downs		94	81	116

Q1 Rk	49	1st Down Rk	83
Q2 Rk	101	2nd Down Rk	68
Q3 Rk	94	3rd Down Rk	102
Q4 Rk	105

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

Comp Rate

TD

INT

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Adam Kennedy

217

314

2351

11

6

69.1%

28

8.2%

6.4

Fredi Knighten

5'11, 189

Jr.

2 stars (5.4)

34

48

215

2

1

70.8%

1

2.0%

4.3

Dezmond Stegall

6'1, 219

So.

3 stars (5.5)

Cameron Birse

6'2, 213

So.

2 stars (5.2)

Chandler Rogers

6'2, 206

Sr.

2 stars (5.3)

3. Can Fredi throw?

One of the major questions for ASU heading into the 2013 season was who would replace quarterback Ryan Aplin, the ASU mainstay around whom both Hugh Freeze's and Gus Malzahn's offenses were built. Utah State transfer Adam Kennedy provided a temporary answer with efficient passing and timely running, but he's now gone. In his place are the players I thought would be challenging for the job a year ago: Fredi Knighten, Dezmond Stegall, and Chandler Rogers.

Knighten won the backup role last year, and one figures he has the best odds of winning the job this time around, but after two years as a backup, he's still a bit of an unknown entity. We know he can run; in two years, he's rushed 70 times for 559 yards (8.0 per carry) and five scores. But his arm is still a bit of a mystery. He completed more than two-thirds of his passes last year, mostly in spelling an injured Kennedy late in the year. But the passes were beyond conservative, averaging just 6.3 yards per completion.

Can he throw downfield? He looked great on the final drive of the GoDaddy Bowl, completing three passes for 50 yards and the game-winning score, but a) that's one drive, and b) he had thrown a pick in the end zone on the previous drive. He's going to have to throw downfield at least a little bit if he wins the job. Can he?

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
David Oku	RB				142	511	6	3.6	2.5	38.0%
Adam Kennedy	QB				125	674	4	5.4	3.0	48.8%
Michael Gordon	RB	5'9, 187	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	112	754	10	6.7	7.7	41.1%
Sirgregory Thornton	RB				63	354	4	5.6	4.9	41.3%
Fredi Knighten	QB	5'11, 189	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	54	347	5	6.4	5.7	48.1%
J.D. McKissic	WR	5'11, 193	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	19	151	1	7.9	6.4	52.6%
Marquis Walker	DB	5'11, 183	So.	3 stars (5.5)	11	34	0	3.1	4.0	18.2%
Kendrick Daniels	RB	5'7, 158	So.	3 stars (5.5)	7	21	0	3.0	0.7	42.9%
Terrance Hollingsworth	RB	5'9, 187	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
J.D. McKissic	WR	5'11, 193	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	101	81	653	80.2%	29.4%	54.2%	6.5	-230	6.8	74.7
Julian Jones	WR				70	52	641	74.3%	20.3%	49.2%	9.2	54	10.1	73.4
Allen Muse	WR				38	29	370	76.3%	11.0%	62.9%	9.7	47	9.8	42.4
Darion Griswold	TE	6'5, 264	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	34	24	312	70.6%	9.9%	71.4%	9.2	34	8.1	35.7
David Oku	RB				24	17	104	70.8%	7.0%	43.5%	4.3	-92	3.2	11.9
R.J. Fleming	WR				20	12	149	60.0%	5.8%	57.9%	7.5	-2	7.1	17.1
Michael Gordon	RB	5'9, 187	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	18	16	206	88.9%	5.2%	52.9%	11.4	39	11.4	23.6
Tres Houston	WR	6'2, 188	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	16	8	41	50.0%	4.7%	50.0%	2.6	-70	2.9	4.7
Kenneth Rains	TE	6'4, 260	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	10	7	71	70.0%	2.9%	42.9%	7.1	-10	3.6	8.1
Sirgregory Thornton	RB				7	6	50	85.7%	2.0%	42.9%	7.1	-14	7.2	5.7
Carlos McCants	WR				5	1	12	20.0%	1.5%	0.0%	2.4	-14	2.7	1.4
Brandon Cox	WR	5'8, 167	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Dijon Paschal	WR	6'1, 196	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Carl Lee, Jr.	WR	6'2, 202	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Blake Mack	WR	6'2, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

4. Unique weapons

J.D. McKissic is the most wobbly player in college football. His role in 2013 was to take short passes and bounce off of as many players as possible. Defenders were almost never actually able to get their arms around him, and he was able to thrive in a unique, extended-handoffs role. With an 80 percent catch rate and only 8.1 yards per catch, he was almost more a part of the running game than the passing game.

Meanwhile, ASU's offense seemed to take a lovely step forward late in the year when Michael Gordon took on a larger role. He rushed 19 times for 184 yards in a win over Texas State and 19 times for 132 yards in a tight loss at WKU.

You can build a solid mid-major offense around these two, but there are mysteries in the supporting cast. The No. 2-3 receivers, guys who actually caught passes downfield (unlike McKissic), are gone. So are running backs David Oku and Sirgregory Thornton. ASU has recruited well considering the coaching changes, and there are intriguing former three-star (Gordon, Kendrick Daniels) or high-two-star recruits (McKissic, Brandon Cox, Dijon Paschal, Carl Lee, Jr.) littering the two-deep. But the number of proven entities is minimal. Somebody's going to have to step up to help out both the new quarterback and McKissic and Gordon.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	102.7	3.12	3.76	42.7%	69.7%	18.0%	72.6	4.2%	11.2%
Rank	53	38	20	24	59	48	107	55	111

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Steven Haunga	LG				26	2nd All-SBC
Bryce Giddens	C	5'11, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	25	2nd All-SBC
Cliff Mitchell	RG				27
Aaron Williams	LT				26
Colton Jackson	RT	6'4, 276	So.	2 stars (5.4)	13
Alan Wright	RG	6'2, 307	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	10
Jacob Campbell	RT				2
Jemar Clark	LT	6'6, 304	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Devin Mondie	LG	6'5, 291	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Tyler Greve	C	6'4, 301	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Austin Moreton	C	6'1, 318	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Brennan Tutor	OL	6'4, 269	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Travis Bodenstein	OL	6'4, 308	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Kyle Harris	OL	6'4, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)

5. Holes up front

The line might have been the strength of the ASU offense. Kennedy did take quite a few sacks, but one could pin a decent amount of that on the inability of receivers to get open downfield. Standard downs sack rates were just fine, but Kennedy was brought down a lot on passing downs. The run-blocking, meanwhile, was rock solid. With three two-year starters departing, however, that might not be the case in 2014. Three players with starting experience return, including all-conference center Bryce Giddens. Plus, there are some former three-star recruits who could play a large role. Still, as with much of the offense, there are unknowns here.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.18	77	IsoPPP+	99.3	62
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.8%	84	Succ. Rt. +	93.3	88
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.3	20	Off. FP+	103.5	23
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	91	Redzone S&P+	105.2	40
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.5		ACTUAL	20.0	-4.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	75	89	88	83
RUSHING	81	96	102	78
PASSING	67	69	58	81
Standard Downs		99	97	81
Passing Downs		43	45	43

Q1 Rk	93	1st Down Rk	105
Q2 Rk	98	2nd Down Rk	79
Q3 Rk	84	3rd Down Rk	47
Q4 Rk	64

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.5	3.17	3.65	42.2%	64.0%	17.4%	90	3.6%	6.4%
Rank	92	95	99	98	42	86	80	88	71

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ryan Carrethers	NT				13	63.5	9.1%	8.0	4.0	0	0	0	0
Chris Stone	DE	6'3, 252	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	35.0	5.0%	9.5	3.0	0	3	2	0
Eddie Porter	DE				13	27.0	3.9%	5.0	0.0	0	6	2	0
Dexter Blackmon	NT	6'4, 268	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	10	22.5	3.2%	6.0	3.5	0	1	1	0
Amos Draper	DT				9	14.0	2.0%	3.0	0.0	1	1	1	0
Chris Odom	DE	6'3, 234	So.	2 stars (5.2)	11	12.5	1.8%	3.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Darius Dunaway	DT				8	10.5	1.5%	2.0	2.0	0	2	1	0
Darrius Rosser	DT	6'3, 284	So.	2 stars (5.2)	5	6.5	0.9%	2.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
John Gandy	DE				7	6.0	0.9%	4.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Markel Owens	DT				4	3.0	0.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jabari Mathieu	DE	6'2, 237	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)
Charles Alexander	DT	6'4, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Chuks Ota	DT	6'1, 288	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Eugene Sutton	DT	6'3, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Kyle Strickland	DE	6'6, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

6. Markel

Like Troy, ASU recently got a reminder of life's priorities in the worst possible way. Reserve lineman Markel Owens was at his mother's home in Jackson, Miss., when he and his step-father fell victim to a home-invasion robbery. In attempting to protect both his mother and step-father, Owens was shot and killed. Real life often gets in the way of our silly pastimes, and condolences go to both the ASU family and Owens' mother, who survived with a gunshot wound to her leg.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Qushaun Lee	MIKE	5'11, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	97.5	14.0%	6.0	0.5	1	3	2	0
Kyle Coleman	STING	6'1, 228	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	39.5	5.7%	3.0	2.0	0	2	0	2
Xavier Woodson	STING	6'1, 214	So.	2 stars (5.4)	9	21.5	3.1%	0.0	0.0	0	3	0	0
Quanterio Heath	STING	6'2, 210	So.	3 stars (5.5)	7	9.0	1.3%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
LaAngelo Albright	MIKE				5	4.5	0.6%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Darius Buckley	MIKE	5'10, 224	Sr.	NR
Carderious Dean	LB	6'3, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Sterling Young	FS	6'2, 193	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	64.0	9.2%	1	0	2	2	0	2
Chris Humes	ROV	5'11, 207	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	43.0	6.2%	3.5	1	0	2	1	0
Rocky Hayes	CB	5'11, 177	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	39.5	5.7%	3	1	3	10	0	0
Artez Brown	CB	6'0, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	33.0	4.7%	1.5	1.5	1	10	1	0
Money Hunter	ROV	6'1, 193	So.	2 stars (5.3)	12	25.0	3.6%	0.5	0	0	2	0	0
Frankie Jackson	WOLF	5'10, 198	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	23.0	3.3%	3.5	0	1	2	1	0
Andrew Tryon	CB	5'10, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	9	22.5	3.2%	1	0	0	6	0	0
Charleston Girley	WOLF	6'0, 196	Jr.	NR	12	18.5	2.7%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
TeDarius Turner	CB	5'8, 166	Jr.	NR	7	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brock Barnhill	DB	6'0, 201	Sr.	NR	6	6.5	0.9%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Jacobs	DB	6'1, 191	Sr.	NR	5	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
DeKeathan Williams	WOLF	6'1, 212	So.	2 stars (5.4)	5	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Raziel Valgis	FS	5'11, 203	Jr.	NR	3	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Colin Janice	DB	5'11, 151	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Jeremy Fulcher	DB	6'0, 178	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jamaris Hart	DB	5'9, 163	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Blaise Taylor	DB	5'8, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Nehemiah Wagner	DB	6'0, 166	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Charles Grant	DB	5'11, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Khari Lain	DB	5'10, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. Just go with the dime 100 percent of the time

There is no easy segue from tragedy back to football, but here goes nothing.

ASU had one of the deeper defensive fronts in the Sun Belt last year. It wasn't amazing, but there was minimal dropoff between first and second string, at least when you got past star tackle Ryan Carrethers. It thins out considerably in 2014, however, as four of seven linemen who logged at least 10.0 tackles have used up their eligibility. The top four returning players have shown some play-making potential; end Chris Stone was the team leader in tackles for loss, and sophomores Chris Odom and Darrius Rosser combined for 5.5 tackles for loss among their 19.0 overall tackles. We've got a sample size issue here, but the top four returnees all seem to have pretty high ceilings. The problem is that they're basically the only four. JUCO transfer Charles Alexander and at least one freshman could see extensive time this year.

Considering the losses up front and the fact that nearly every single contributor in the back seven return, it's pretty easy to pick up on the potential strengths and weaknesses of this defense. Despite an only decent pass rush, ASU had a top-60 defense in terms of Passing Success Rate+, and every defensive back returns. Like, every single one. Corners Rockey Hayes and Artez Brown are athletic and aggressive, the safeties are experienced, and the last two recruiting classes have produced quite a few high-caliber DB signees. There's reason to wonder about the defensive line, but this will be one of the best mid-major secondaries in the country.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Paul Jones	6'2, 205	Jr.	41	38.4	5	12	16	68.3%
Luke Ferguson	6'0, 210	Jr.	23	43.8	1	6	8	60.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Brian Davis			75	62.2	26	1	34.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Brian Davis			46-47	9-10	90.0%	6-8	75.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
J.D. McKissic	KR	5'11, 193	Jr.	21	30.0	1
Julian Jones	KR			10	21.0	0
J.D. McKissic	PR	5'11, 193	Jr.	17	8.5	0
R.J. Fleming	PR			2	4.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	4
Field Goal Efficiency	31
Punt Return Efficiency	19
Kick Return Efficiency	3
Punt Efficiency	49
Kickoff Efficiency	34
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	30

8. Replacing Davis

Thanks to kicker Brian Davis and an outstanding return man in J.D. McKissic, ASU had one of the best special teams units in the country in 2013. The Red Wolves were dynamite in the field position game, which allowed them to overcome big-play issues and still claim a piece of the Sun Belt title. McKissic is back, obviously, but Davis is not. Australian punter Paul Jones could be the answer at place-kicker, but we'll see. A drop-off in the special teams department would put extra pressure on the offense to make up ground with bigger plays.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Montana State	NR
6-Sep	at Tennessee	57
13-Sep	at Miami	37
27-Sep	Utah State	69
TBD	Appalachian State	NR
TBD	New Mexico State	124
TBD	South Alabama	92
TBD	UL-Monroe	112
TBD	at Idaho	120
TBD	at Georgia State	125
TBD	at Texas State	114
TBD	at UL-Lafayette	79

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-6.0% (77)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	100
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	6 / 10.6
TO Luck/Game	-1.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (6, 9)

9. Why not?

Blake Anderson's résumé is an interesting one; he helped to patent the hurry-up-and-wait offense at MTSU a decade ago, he left coaching for a while, and he led a young, exciting UNC offense for Larry Fedora last season. He knows the Sun Belt, and he's done pretty well everywhere he's gone. There's no reason to think he won't be the next strong ASU hire.

And with the returnees at the skill positions and in the secondary, there's no reason to think that ASU's three-year streak of eight-win (at least) seasons will end in 2014. A challenging non-conference schedule will tamp down the overall win total, but aside from a rough trip to Lafayette, the schedule is awfully friendly.

I don't think ASU has quite as many pieces as Louisiana-Lafayette this year, but the Red Wolves could easily be the second-best team in a conference that has quite a few interesting candidates for the No. 2 spot. Having to hire this many head coaches in this short a period is far from orthodox, but it will probably work out just fine.

10. Sun Belt balance of power

At the end of each conference run-through, I take a look at how I perceive the conference's balance of power heading into the season. This is in no way based on schedules, so they are not predictions. They're just how I would rank the teams after writing 4,000 or so words about each of them.

Tier I
UL-Lafayette

I really do like what the Cajuns return. This season will have a bit of a last-hurrah feel because of the seniors and the fact that at some point a bigger school is probably going to take head coach Mark Hudspeth away. But they're the best for 2014.

Tier II
Arkansas State

The Red Wolves don't have quite as many weapons as the Cajuns, but they've proven more than anybody else here.

Tier III
UL-Monroe
South Alabama
Troy
Texas State
Georgia Southern

ULM and USA could each pop up to Tier II if new quarterbacks thrive, but we'll play it safe. And I might be overstating Georgia Southern's FBS readiness.

Tier IV
Idaho
Appalachian State
Georgia State
New Mexico State

Idaho went JUCO-crazy in the 2014 recruiting class, and if a lot of them stick, they could potentially (and briefly) overtake TXST and Georgia Southern. But that's not an incredibly safe bet.