The big 2014 UMass football preview: It won't get any worse

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1. Two years is not a long time

Rebuilding tends to take a while, especially when a rebuilding job converges with an upgrade in your level of competition.

When Notre Dame offensive coordinator (and longtime MAC assistant) Charley Molnar took over the UMass head coaching job in 2012, he inherited a team that was simultaneously moving up to FBS and coming off of its worst three-year win total (16) since 1995-97. He talked a big game*, but while I assumed the Minutemen's 2012 campaign would be "largely forgettable," I didn't foresee what actually occurred. UMass went 1-11 and ranked 122nd in the F/+ rankings in 2012 (with the No. 123 offense), then improved to 1-11 and 118th (122nd on offense).

* Wow, did he talk a big game. My favorite: "Or we can say ‘Wow, how did UMass do that? How did UMass move from I-AA football to a [team] that plays in a sold-out Gillette Stadium?'"

There are different ways to go 2-22, I guess. You can start hopeless, grow more experienced and competitive, and hint at a breakthrough in the coming year or two. Or, in Molnar's case, you can experience almost no growth whatsoever. Citing a lack of growth and an alarming dissipation in student/alumni enthusiasm, UMass athletic director John McCutcheon let Molnar go right after Christmas.

Two years never feels like enough time to properly evaluate a coach, especially when he takes on a pretty tough job. Sometimes it just takes a while; for instance, Bobby Hauck went 4-21 in his first two years at UNLV, but in his fourth year, he engineered the Rebels' first bowl bid in almost 15 years. But while one can almost always question firing a coach so soon, it's hard to build too much of a case in Molnar's defense. UMass was awful and hadn't provided any reason to believe things would be getting better soon. And two years after starting fresh, UMass starts over.

2. A good hire, considering

UMass got a late start in its coaching search, letting Molnar go a few weeks after Coaching Change Season began in full force. The Minutemen did not have the pull of a strong history or a bright future, and there weren't necessarily a lot of exciting candidates with built-in UMass ties.

Despite rather long odds, however, they indeed found an interesting name with quite the history in Amherst: Mark Whipple. Whipple is not exactly an up-and-comer; he's 56 years old and has spent the last decade of his career as an offensive assistant at both the NFL (Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Cleveland) and college (Miami) levels. He hasn't been a head coach in 11 years, but if you're looking for a mix of both experience and Northeastern ties, Whipple has quite a bit of both. He became head coach of the New Haven Chargers in 1988 at the age of 30, moved on to Brown in 1994. In 1998, he not only became the head coach at UMass, but he also won an FCS national title in his first year. In six years at UMass, he reached the playoffs three times and won 49 games.

In all, Whipple won 121 games in 16 seasons as a head coach in the Northeast. And then he became a relatively well-regarded, pro-style offensive assistant. He has proven he can win in the very office he now occupies (at a different level of competition, yes). It's hard to imagine a hire much better than that. There's no guarantee that he will succeed, but he's got as good a chance as anybody.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 1-11 | Adj. Record: 0-12 | Final F/+ Rk: 118
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at Wisconsin	19	0-45	L	14.2 - 43.2	L
7-Sep	Maine	N/A	14-24	L	8.3 - 47.8	L
14-Sep	at Kansas State	24	7-37	L	21.2 - 39.6	L
21-Sep	Vanderbilt	50	7-24	L	24.5 - 35.7	L
5-Oct	at Bowling Green	47	7-28	L	27.4 - 30.2	L	-20.2
12-Oct	Miami (Ohio)	123	17-10	W	17.3 - 35.8	L	-18.1
19-Oct	at Buffalo	80	3-32	L	21.1 - 30.6	L	-12.1
26-Oct	Western Michigan	117	30-31	L	20.0 - 39.0	L	-12.2
2-Nov	Northern Illinois	60	19-63	L	21.7 - 43.3	L	-14.3
16-Nov	Akron	108	13-14	L	16.6 - 29.4	L	-16.3
23-Nov	at Central Michigan	111	0-37	L	8.8 - 23.3	L	-15.5
29-Nov	at Ohio	104	23-51	L	14.8 - 42.8	L	-19.2

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-19.8%	122	-11.0%	105	-1.9%	96
Points Per Game	11.7	123	33.0	97
Adj. Points Per Game	18.0	122	36.7	117

3. A house is not a home

Molnar talked a big game about one day filling Gilette Stadium. But in six 2013 home games, the Minutemen did not manage to fill one-third of it even once. In a stadium that holds 68,756, Umass drew 15,624, 16,419, 21,707, 20,571, 10,061, and 10,599. Add those figures together, and it doesn't fill the stadium even twice over.

It shouldn't be a surprise, then, that UMass had absolutely no home-field advantage whatsoever in 2013.

Adj. Points Per Game (Home): Opponent 38.5, UMass 18.1 (minus-20.4)
Adj. Points Per Game (Road): Opponent 35.0, UMass 17.9 (minus-17.1)

The goal of the Adj. Score is to project how a team would have done against a perfectly average opponent. In 2013, UMass played well enough to stay within a touchdown of an average opponent just once, and that happened on the road, in a 21-point loss to a solid Bowling Green squad.

This was a bad team. Let's just move on.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.94	124	IsoPPP+	87.4	122
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.0%	117	Succ. Rt. +	78.2	120
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	33.4	115	Def. FP+	94.4	111
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	2.4	124	Redzone S&P+	63.1	125
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.5		ACTUAL	26	+3.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	122	124	121	123
RUSHING	105	125	122	118
PASSING	113	110	112	114
Standard Downs		122	120	116
Passing Downs		121	119	118

Q1 Rk	103	1st Down Rk	124
Q2 Rk	118	2nd Down Rk	118
Q3 Rk	124	3rd Down Rk	116
Q4 Rk	122

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
A.J. Doyle	6'3, 226	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	128	235	1274	6	11	54.5%	11	4.5%	5.0
Mike Wegzyn				49	101	603	3	7	48.5%	4	3.8%	5.5
Todd Stafford	6'7, 250	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Blake Frohnapfel (Marshall)	6'6, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	17	22	206	3	1	77.3%	1	4.3%	9.5

4. Saved by the Frohnapfel?

There are a lot of ways to tell you how awful UMass' offense was in 2013. This might be my favorite: 34 FBS teams averaged at least 2.5 points per possession, including the MAC's Toledo, Bowling Green, Ball State, and NIU. UMass, meanwhile, averaged 2.4 points per trip inside the 40. Never mind all of the possessions that didn't reach the 40.

Let's put that another way: If every single UMass drive had started at or inside the opponent's 40-yard line, the Minutemen still wouldn't have ranked in the overall top 30 in points per possession.

Let's put that one more way: UMass opponents averaged 2.5 points per possession while starting at, on average, their 33-yard line. UMass, meanwhile, averaged 2.4 points per possession on only drives that got to at least the opponent's 40.

None of the top three running backs averaged even 4.0 yards per carry. None of the top eight targets averaged even 7.0 yards per target. The line was terribly young and might have been the worst run-blocking unit in the country.

Enter Blake Frohnapfel. A two-year backup behind Marshall's awesome Rakeem Cato, Frohnapfel is utilizing the graduate transfer rule and heading from Huntington to Amherst, where he will be expected to immediately challenge returning starter A.J. Doyle for first-string honors.

With Frohnapfel, Doyle, and a couple of relatively interesting youngsters, Whipple and quarterbacks coach Liam Coen will have options behind center. And if they can go about solving that problem ... well, there are still plenty of items on the to-do list, but the biggest one will be checked off, at least.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Jamal Wilson	RB	5'10, 200	Jr.	NR	100	368	1	3.7	3.1	39.0%
Stacey Bedell	RB				93	301	1	3.2	3.1	21.5%
Lorenzo Woodley	RB	6'0, 215	So.	3 stars (5.7)	84	314	2	3.7	3.4	31.0%
A.J. Doyle	QB	6'3, 226	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	54	201	0	3.7	2.5	46.3%
Shadrach Abrokwah	RB	5'9, 200	So.	NR	51	203	1	4.0	4.2	25.5%
Mike Wegzyn	QB	6'5, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	26	121	0	4.7	1.9	50.0%
Greg Orekoya	RB	5'10, 190	Sr.	NR	14	43	0	3.1	0.9	42.9%
Shaquille Harris	WR	6'2, 206	So.	2 stars (5.4)	4	65	0	16.3	13.8	75.0%
J.T. Blyden	RB	6'0, 204	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Tajae Sharpe	WR	6'2, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	101	61	680	60.4%	33.1%	57.1%	6.7	-83	7.0	82.5
Rob Blanchflower	TE				46	27	313	58.7%	15.1%	57.8%	6.8	-30	6.8	38.0
Bernard Davis	WR	6'1, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	30	16	134	53.3%	9.8%	39.1%	4.5	-80	5.0	16.3
Elgin Long	WR	5'10, 189	Jr.	NR	27	14	179	51.9%	8.9%	47.6%	6.6	-11	5.7	21.7
Jamal Wilson	RB	5'10, 200	Jr.	NR	23	14	106	60.9%	7.5%	45.5%	4.6	-68	4.7	12.9
Derek Beck	WR				22	15	134	68.2%	7.2%	69.2%	6.1	-43	5.3	16.3
Stacey Bedell	RB				12	6	78	50.0%	3.9%	30.0%	6.5	-5	11.0	9.5
Ricardo Miller	TE				9	5	52	55.6%	3.0%	40.0%	5.8	-13	6.4	6.3
Brandon Howard	TE	6'5, 250	Jr.	NR	7	4	55	57.1%	2.3%	0.0%	7.9	3	3.0	6.7
Rodney Mills	WR	6'1, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	7	5	47	71.4%	2.3%	100.0%	6.7	-11	6.1	5.7
Shakur Nesmith	WR	6'4, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	7	2	14	28.6%	2.3%	0.0%	2.0	-26	1.6	1.7
E.J. Burston	WR	6'3, 175	So.	2 stars (5.2)	4	2	18	50.0%	1.3%	100.0%	4.5	-10	-0.3	2.2
Shaquille Harris	WR	6'2, 206	So.	2 stars (5.4)	4	1	36	25.0%	1.3%	100.0%	9.0	14	10.0	4.4
Dalvin Battle	WR	5'10, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
D.J. Woods	WR	5'9, 170	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
Alex Kenney (Penn State)	WR	6'0, 195	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	5	3	25	60.0%	1.3%	100.0%	5.0	-13	4.4	3.1
Jon Denton	TE	6'5, 260	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)

5. A high degree of difficulty

All things considered, Tajae Sharpe might be a hell of a wideout. The junior from Piscataway was the No. 1 and No. 2 target for UMass in 2013, and when tight end Rob Blanchflower was lost for the season with injury (he played only six games), Sharpe was the No. 3 target as well. When you consider the quality of the quarterback and the fact that said quarterback was frequently trying to pass on second- or third-and-long, Sharpe's 60-percent catch rate and 6.7 yards per target might have been super-human averages.

Sharpe still has a couple of years to make a name for himself, and there's at least a chance that his supporting cast improves in 2014. Blanchflower is gone, but almost every wideout returns (for what that's worth), and the receiving corps will be plumped up by both JUCO tight end Jon Denton and Penn State transfer Alex Kenney. Kenney has never lived up to his four-star recruiting status -- he's caught 21 passes for 207 yards in three years -- but from an athleticism standpoint, he still represents an upgrade. If Sharpe gets any support at all, he might have all-conference potential.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	75.2	2.49	2.53	33.9%	73.7%	21.7%	147.8	2.9%	4.5%
Rank	126	119	115	112	36	102	17	23	33

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Anthony Dima	LT				31
Tyrell Smith	LG	6'5, 295	So.	2 stars (5.2)	12
Matt Sparks	C	6'4, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12
Vincent Westcarr	RG				12
David Osei	RT				12
Tyshon Henderson	LT	6'7, 339	So.	2 stars (5.2)	1
Fabian Hoeller	LG	6'3, 290	So.	2 stars (5.2)	1
Josh Bruns	RT	6'5, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Enock Asante	OL	6'2, 260	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Sam Zeff	OL	6'5, 277	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Rich Queen	OL	6'3, 285	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Ryan Johnson	OL	6'5, 320	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Dimitry Angelas	OL	6'5, 291	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)
Anthony Fernandez	OL	6'6, 285	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

6. Chicken vs. egg, line vs. runner

Of the seven linemen who started at least one game for UMass in 2013, three were freshmen, and one was a sophomore. (Granted, three were also seniors.) So when you see that the Minutemen finished 126th, dead last, in Adj. Line Yards, know that the line producing those awful numbers was relatively young.

Pass protection was a strength, albeit one helped by a quick-passing style, but at the very least Whipple can plan on having an increasingly experienced line over the coming years. Now they'll just need to find running backs to take advantage of the blocks delivered. It was a chicken-and-egg situation last year.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.19	85	IsoPPP+	90.4	111
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	47.5%	105	Succ. Rt. +	82.7	117
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	27.3	108	Def. FP+	95.5	101
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	71	Redzone S&P+	92.3	81
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.0		ACTUAL	19.0	+1.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	99	119	117	113
RUSHING	107	116	117	113
PASSING	42	115	111	100
Standard Downs		117	118	109
Passing Downs		118	108	114

Q1 Rk	109	1st Down Rk	111
Q2 Rk	122	2nd Down Rk	123
Q3 Rk	111	3rd Down Rk	113
Q4 Rk	116

7. Old is new

When UMass decided to get the Mark Whipple Band back together for 2014, Whipple brought along his bass player. Tom Masella was Whipple's defensive coordinator at UMass in 2002-03 and has racked up head coaching experience at four Northeastern colleges: Fairfield, Boston U., Central Connecticut, and Fordham. He recently added offensive coordinator experience at Wagner as well, just for grins.

Masella inherits a defense that was further along than its offense, but that's not necessarily saying a lot. UMass was pretty good at stiffening in the red zone, but the Minutemen faced far too many opportunities to prove their red zone prowess. The secondary is pretty deep and aggressive and could become a strength in the right coordinator's hands, but the front four needs quite a bit of work. The line produced 17.0 tackles for loss, a pretty meager total, but those responsible for 14.5 of those TFLs are gone, and the Minutemen are all but guaranteed to feature a few freshmen up front.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	86.4	3.38	3.01	45.1%	64.9%	17.5%	43	3.2%	2.4%
Rank	115	115	31	115	51	85	126	102	125

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Justin Anderson	DE				10	38.0	6.0%	6.5	4.0	0	2	0	0
Kevin Byrne	DT				10	26.0	4.1%	2.5	1.0	1	1	2	0
Galen Clemons	DT				10	20.5	3.2%	2.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Daniel Maynes	DT	6'2, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.1)	9	18.5	2.9%	0.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Brandon Potvin	DE				11	14.0	2.2%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Peter Angeh	DE	6'2, 245	So.	2 stars (5.2)	6	8.5	1.3%	1.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Trey Seals	DE	6'4, 231	Jr.	NR	7	6.5	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	2	1	0
Robert Kitching	DT	6'1, 300	Jr.	2 stars	6	5.0	0.8%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Adam Richard	DE	6'3, 220	So.	NR	3	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Sha-Ki Holines	DE	6'3, 260	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Deshawn Downey	DE	6'5, 240	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)
Chris Carter	DE	6'4, 260	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)
Jake Largay	DT	6'6, 280	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)
Josh Smiley	DE	6'6, 235	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)
Jack Wynne	DE	6'5, 243	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Stanley Andre	ILB	6'2, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	76.5	12.0%	6.0	0.5	0	2	1	0
Tom Brandt	ILB				8	23.0	3.6%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jovan Santos-Knox	OLB	6'2, 240	Jr.	NR	10	21.5	3.4%	4.0	0.5	1	0	1	0
Kassan Messiah	OLB	6'4, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	12.5	2.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Shane Huber	LB	6'3, 230	So.	2 stars (5.3)	7	11.5	1.8%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Steve Casali	LB	6'2, 225	So.	2 stars (5.2)	1	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Peter Ngobidi	LB	6'2, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Zeke Edmonds	LB	6'0, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Devin Brown	S				12	67.5	10.6%	3	0	2	2	0	0
Ed Saint-Vil	NB	5'11, 190	Sr.	NR	10	57.0	8.9%	0.5	0	0	3	1	0
Joe Colton	S	5'8, 195	Jr.	NR	10	50.5	7.9%	3.5	1	0	3	0	0
Antoine Tharpe	S				11	37.0	5.8%	2	0	1	3	0	0
Randall Jette	CB	5'11, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	34.0	5.3%	2	0	1	11	2	1
Trey Dudley-Giles	CB	5'11, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	31.0	4.9%	1.5	0	0	3	0	0
D'Metrius Williams	CB	5'11, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	21.0	3.3%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Khary Bailey-Smith	DB	6'2, 200	Jr.	NR	7	18.0	2.8%	0	0	2	0	0	0
Quayshun Smith	CB	5'9, 170	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	9	14.5	2.3%	2	1	0	2	0	0
Jaurice Jones	S	6'1, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Jarrell Addo	DB	6'2, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)
Charan Singh	DB	6'2, 192	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)

8. A salty secondary

If the front seven can help out -- a pretty significant "if" -- the secondary could thrive (relatively speaking). Randall Jette's passes defensed-to-tackles ratio (12 PDs, 34.0 tackles) suggests he's pretty effectively aggressive (that, or he misses a ton of tackles), and safeties Ed Saint-Vil and Joe Colton are decent play-makers. You see a pretty high level of activity in these stat lines, and I would say that if the D comes around to any degree in 2014, the secondary will be the reason.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Colter Johnson			69	37.3	4	19	15	49.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Brendon Levengood			38	57.8	7	2	18.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Blake Lucas	5'8, 166	Jr.	10-10	2-4	50.0%	1-6	16.7%
Brendon Levengood			4-4	3-3	100.0%	6-6	100.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Trey Dudley-Giles	KR	5'11, 185	Jr.	30	22.3	0
Joe Colton	KR	5'8, 195	Jr.	9	19.4	0
Trey Dudley-Giles	PR	5'11, 185	Jr.	12	12.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	96
Field Goal Efficiency	79
Punt Return Efficiency	67
Kick Return Efficiency	58
Punt Efficiency	114
Kickoff Efficiency	75
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	105

9. If UMass can force punts ...

... Trey Dudley-Giles could become quite a weapon returning them. We're dealing with small sample sizes here, but Dudley-Giles was a solid returner, and if the Minutemen can find a semi-capable punter, special teams could be a relative strength.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Boston College	80
6-Sep	Colorado	96
13-Sep	at Vanderbilt	58
20-Sep	at Penn State	38
TBD	Ball State	81
TBD	Bowling Green	60
TBD	Buffalo	107
TBD	Eastern Michigan	122
TBD	at Akron	118
TBD	at Kent State	102
TBD	at Miami (Ohio)	121
TBD	at Toledo	53

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-33.2% (125)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	118
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-7 / -4.5
TO Luck/Game	-1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (7, 5)

10. It probably isn't going to get worse

Whipple is by no means a young up-and-comer, but one can see why UMass was attracted to him. He has a lengthy résumé, and once upon a time, he was able to build a pretty competitive team in Amherst. And even though that was at the FCS level, UMass was at least a great FCS program. The Minutemen would have struggled to win four or five games at even the FCS level these past two years.

This is still a really hard job, even for a seasoned, steady hand. And even if Frohnapfel sticks, and Tajae Sharpe turns out to be excellent, and a more experienced offensive line gels, and the secondary turns out to be solid, and special teams turns into a minor strength ... we're still probably only talking about a team that ranks in the No. 100-110 range and has no home-field advantage to speak of.

Still, we know that things probably aren't going to get worse, and we know that whatever steadiness is possible at this program at the moment, the odds are decent that Whipple will find that. Eventually.