The big 2014 Akron football preview: Athletic, exciting, and one year away

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1. Okay, so Akron wasn't actually that good in 2013...

...but they mattered for the first time in a while. You noticed they existed. They almost made a bowl.

Akron was awful in 2009, a little worse in 2010, and still a little worse in 2011. In 2012, Terry Bowden took over a program just seven years removed from a MAC title, but it was perhaps the most hopeless in a conference that always features some hopelessness at the bottom. Kent State was about to break through in 2012, EMU was coming off of a 6-6 year, and we didn't yet realize just how awful UMass was going to be.

From the very start, however, Bowden brought hope to a city that can use a bit of it. The Zips improved from 118th in the F/+ rankings in 2011 to 109th in 2012. The win total didn't change (1-11 both years), but the product did. And in 2013, the wins followed suit. Akron ranked only 108th, but after going 0-4 in one-possession games a year earlier, the Zips went 4-3, both playing in and winning more close games.

In the end, the one Akron game you watched in 2013 -- No. 17 on this list -- just barely kept UA away from bowl eligibility. But there's consolation in coming so close. After winning six games from 2009-12, Akron won five last year and returns a boatload of experience in 2014. Hell of a job so far, Coach Bowden.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 108
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	at Central Florida	21	7-38	L	18.5 - 31.9	L
7-Sep	James Madison	N/A	35-33	W	21.7 - 35.5	L
14-Sep	at Michigan	37	24-28	L	27.0 - 31.7	L
21-Sep	UL-Lafayette	86	30-35	L	31.1 - 25.1	W
28-Sep	at Bowling Green	47	14-31	L	30.2 - 24.4	W	-4.0
5-Oct	Ohio	104	3-43	L	2.9 - 31.4	L	-7.1
12-Oct	at Northern Illinois	60	20-27	L	16.0 - 14.3	W	-4.0
19-Oct	at Miami-OH	123	24-17	W	24.6 - 38.2	L	-5.7
26-Oct	Ball State	57	24-42	L	27.2 - 28.0	L	-7.1
2-Nov	Kent State	106	16-7	W	17.5 - 22.9	L	-9.3
16-Nov	at Massachusetts	118	14-13	W	17.5 - 26.4	L	-5.4
29-Nov	Toledo	62	31-29	W	24.0 - 23.3	W	-5.6

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-14.7%	114	-4.3%	83	-2.9%	110
Points Per Game	20.2	110	28.6	74
Adj. Points Per Game	21.5	109	27.8	65

2. Four of five

It had been eight years since Akron won four of five games. Back then, the Zips lost at Ball State but beat Bowling Green, Ohio, Kent, and Northern Illinois to secure both the MAC East title and, in Detroit, the MAC title.

This has been a program specializing in winning between four and seven games (the Zips have done so in 20 of 28 FBS seasons), never reaching a bowl but always finishing ahead of other MAC comers. But J.D. Brookhart's time in charge flamed out at the end (3-9 in 2009), and the hire of Rob Ianello (2-22 in 2010-11) proved disastrous.

If nothing else, Akron's late-2013 improvement proved that, well, Akron is capable of improving. It had been a while since there was affirmation of that.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Opponent 29.7, Akron 25.7 (minus-4.0)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 3 games): Opponent 28.0, Akron 14.5 (minus-13.5)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Opponent 25.2, Akron 21.6 (minus-3.6)

After competitive, exciting losses to Michigan and UL-Lafayette, the Zips bottomed out for a bit. But there's no question they rallied late in the year, mostly by becoming above-average on defense and not completely hopeless on offense. The weakness should get stronger in 2014, and the strength has a chance to do the same if a blue-chip transfer up front pans out alright.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.14	65	IsoPPP+	101.6	52
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.6%	100	Succ. Rt. +	79.2	118
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.9	104	Def. FP+	97.4	84
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.8	100	Redzone S&P+	90.4	96
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.9		ACTUAL	21	+0.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	108	118	119	113
RUSHING	108	122	125	117
PASSING	77	104	108	90
Standard Downs		119	124	67
Passing Downs		100	104	60

Q1 Rk	118	1st Down Rk	121
Q2 Rk	107	2nd Down Rk	106
Q3 Rk	117	3rd Down Rk	114
Q4 Rk	112

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Kyle Pohl

6'3, 213

Jr.

3 stars (5.5)

225

402

2438

14

10

56.0%

21

5.0%

5.4

Nick Hirschman

6'4, 239

Sr.

3 stars (5.6)

8

15

162

3

0

53.3%

2

11.8%

8.3

Tommy Woodson

6'1, 233

RSFr.

2 stars (5.4)

Chandler Kincade

6'5, 230

Fr.

3 stars (5.6)

3. Raise that completion rate

Running back Jawon Chisholm averaged a healthy 6.0 highlight yards per opportunity in 2013; in a four-game span late in the season, he rushed 79 times for 475 yards (6.0 per carry) and four scores. Big Zach D'Orazio turned into a big-play threat, averaging 13.5 yards per catch with a long of 77, and L.T. Smith averaged 17.8 yards per catch. In all, eight Zips had at least one catch of 29 yards. There is big-play potential here, as evidenced by Akron's No. 52 ranking in IsoPPP above.

Now ... about that efficiency. Big plays don't necessarily matter if you're facing a steady stream of second- and third-and-long. Despite big-play potential, Akron had the third-least-efficient offense in the country on standard downs and the eighth-least efficient overall. The passing game was inefficient, and the run game was horrifically inefficient. Despite a lot of short passing and a lot of passing on standard downs (when the defense has to account for the run), the Zips just couldn't get anything going until they had to; the short passes were too short and not completed nearly enough.

If you're going to average 10.8 yards per completion, your completion rate better be around 70 percent. Kyle Pohl's was 56 percent. That's not going to work.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Jawon Chisholm	RB	6'1, 206	Sr.	2 stars (5.1)	188	892	8	4.7	6.0	31.9%
Conor Hundley	RB	5'10, 216	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	100	425	0	4.3	2.4	41.0%
Kyle Pohl	QB	6'3, 213	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	51	234	3	4.6	2.5	49.0%
D.J. Jones	RB	5'8, 191	So.	NR	25	109	0	4.4	4.9	28.0%
Fransohn Bickley	WR	5'6, 138	So.	NR	7	29	0	4.1	2.0	71.4%
Manny Morgan	RB	5'8, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Zach D'Orazio	WR-Y	6'2, 213	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	67	42	567	62.7%	16.9%	58.7%	8.5	51	8.3	63.3
Fransohn Bickley	WR-H	5'6, 138	So.	NR	56	39	407	69.6%	14.1%	60.0%	7.3	-47	7.3	45.4
Jerrod Dillard	WR-X				49	26	320	53.1%	12.3%	37.0%	6.5	-29	7.2	35.7
L.T. Smith	WR-Z	6'0, 203	Sr.	NR	45	24	428	53.3%	11.3%	52.5%	9.5	107	10.3	47.8
Jawon Chisholm	RB	6'1, 206	Sr.	2 stars (5.1)	39	26	210	66.7%	9.8%	55.6%	5.4	-99	5.2	23.4
Mykel Traylor-Bennett	WR-Y	6'3, 205	So.	2 stars (5.3)	34	12	112	35.3%	8.6%	51.9%	3.3	-94	3.3	12.5
Tyrell Goodman	WR-Z	6'2, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	34	17	243	50.0%	8.6%	59.4%	7.1	7	7.5	27.1
Andrew Pratt	WR	6'5, 203	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	18	10	188	55.6%	4.5%	56.3%	10.4	57	11.8	21.0
Conor Hundley	RB	5'10, 216	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	8	16	66.7%	3.0%	44.4%	1.3	-79	1.4	1.8
Imani Davis	WR-X	5'9, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	8	56	66.7%	3.0%	50.0%	4.7	-39	2.8	6.3
Tyler Williams	WR-H	5'7, 161	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	6	17	50.0%	3.0%	44.4%	1.4	-66	0.8	1.9
Dee Frieson	WR				8	7	15	87.5%	2.0%	66.7%	1.9	-58	1.5	1.7
Jerome Lewis	TE	6'3, 231	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	4	4	15	100.0%	1.0%	66.7%	3.8	-25	4.4	1.7
D.J. Jones	RB	5'8, 191	So.	NR	2	1	2	50.0%	0.5%	0.0%	1.0	-12	0.9	0.2
Keith Sconiers	WR				2	1	4	50.0%	0.5%	100.0%	2.0	-10	2.2	0.4
Jon Root	TE				2	2	21	100.0%	0.5%	100.0%	10.5	1	5.8	2.3
Austin Wolf	WR	6'3, 204	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)

4. Get to know Fransohn Bickley

Fransohn Bickley was a star receiver for Akron's storied St. Vincent-St. Mary high school program. He racked up over 1,100 receiving yards as a high school senior, scored on punt returns, was a member of a state championship relay team, and was a contributor on the basketball team as well. He's quick as hell and was the No. 2 target for the Zips as a true freshman.

So why did he fall to Akron? Why didn't bigger schools give him a look? Because he's 5'6, 138 pounds.

The top five Akron wideouts not named Bickley average 6'2, 206, which sets the table pretty nicely for a waterbug type, albeit one who makes Brandon Banks look like he's carrying a few extra pounds.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	77.2	2.55	3	37.0%	64.4%	22.8%	121.7	4.2%	4.6%
Rank	124	115	89	91	88	114	43	55	37

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Travis Switzer	C	6'2, 296	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	27
Jarrod Pughsley	LT				23
Dylan Brumbaugh	RG	6'5, 310	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	16
Zenel Demhasaj	RT				12
Henry Orelus	LG				8
Joe McNamara	LG	6'1, 312	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	4
Quaison Osborne	LT	6'3, 297	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	3
Joe Petrides	RG				0
Cedric Brittnum	RT	6'4, 316	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Michael Casimos	OL	6'2, 297	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Ryan Kortokrax	OL	6'3, 297	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Scott Boyett	OL	6'7, 315	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)

5. Waiting on the line

So when a running back shows strong explosiveness but almost never makes it into the open field (Jawon Chisholm made it five yards downfield only 32 percent of the time in 2013), one can pin a lot of his problems on the offensive line. Obviously some of the blame could go to the runner if he dances around too much in the backfield or doesn't take advantage of the blocks given to him; this becomes reasonably relevant when you notice that, while Chisholm's Opportunity Rate was just 32 percent, backfield mate Conor Hundley's was 41 percent. Perhaps Chisholm brought some of his problems on himself.

Still, no matter who was carrying the ball, the line's run-blocking stats were gruesome. Akron ranked 124th in Adj. Line Yards and 114th in Stuff Rate (run stops behind the line). The quick passing game helped the sack rates out a bit, and Chisholm's late-season success suggests that the line figured some things out.

But the loss of three players with at least eight career starts suggests that the line might take another step backwards, at least early in the year. Two-year starting center Travis Switzer does come back, and four players have amassed a semi-respectable 50 career starts, but this line will probably need some time to gel.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.14	61	IsoPPP+	96.4	86
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.6%	44	Succ. Rt. +	105.7	39
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.5	84	Def. FP+	100.5	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	78	Redzone S&P+	92.8	79
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.5		ACTUAL	19.0	-0.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	60	46	39	70
RUSHING	64	43	42	58
PASSING	67	55	39	85
Standard Downs		48	57	43
Passing Downs		56	18	124

Q1 Rk	25	1st Down Rk	25
Q2 Rk	42	2nd Down Rk	61
Q3 Rk	91	3rd Down Rk	106
Q4 Rk	90

6. Break but never bend?

A healthy defensive success rate -- and to be sure, Akron's No. 39 ranking in Success Rate+ is pretty healthy -- suggests a pretty high level of aggression. No bend-don't-break here. Play tight defense, including perhaps a healthy amount of man-to-man coverage, make tackles, and force mistakes. Akron did this pretty well and leveraged opponents into passing downs rather successfully.

Once in passing downs, Akron had one of the 20 most efficient defenses in the country ... and the third-worst when it comes to big plays allowed. What's the opposite of bend-don't-break? Because Chuck Amato's Zips defense was that.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.5	2.73	3.90	36.7%	65.1%	21.1%	103.3	6.8%	5.3%
Rank	55	38	115	39	52	40	57	19	96

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Albert Presley	DE				12	30.0	4.4%	7.5	5.5	0	1	1	0
C.J. James	DE				8	24.5	3.6%	7.0	3.5	0	1	2	0
Nordly Capi	DE	6'3, 249	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	24.0	3.5%	4.5	2.0	0	0	2	0
Cody Grice	NG	5'11, 283	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	20.5	3.0%	6.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Moses McCray	DT				10	17.5	2.6%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Nico Caponi	DT				9	15.5	2.3%	6.5	5.5	0	0	2	0
Keontae Hollis	NG	6'1, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	10	13.5	2.0%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Austin Bailey	DL				7	6.0	0.9%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alfonso Horner	DE	6'3, 217	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	5	5.5	0.8%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Nmesoma Okafor	DL	6'6, 230	Sr.	NR	3	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Se'von Pittman	DE	6'3, 269	So.	4 stars (5.9)
Brock Boxen	DE	6'2, 250	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Anthony Clark	DE	6'4, 276	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

7. Transfers in the trenches

The defensive line was a strength in 2013, which could be a problem considering the top two ends and two of the top three tackles are gone. Colorado State transfer Nordly Capi is back, and nose guard Cody Grice is short but quick, but the depth needs some plumping up.

Technically, depth could be an issue no matter what Se'von Pittman does, but if the former Ohio State signee who transferred to UA after some off-the-field issues still has some of that four-star potential in him, he could join Capi and Grice in one of the MAC's best starting lines. And if one of two three-star freshmen is ready to roll, that will help immensely.

Bowden was known for taking in second-chance kids during his tenure at North Alabama (2009-11). In doing the same at Akron, he is building one of the most high-ceiling defenses in the conference. Akron will have three former four-star recruits scattered among its front seven, and while these players still have hype to live up to, one has to like the athleticism and potential.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jatavis Brown	WILL	5'11, 212	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	82.0	12.0%	6.5	2.0	0	2	2	0
Justin March	SAM	6'0, 222	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	60.0	8.8%	4.5	1.0	3	2	0	0
Dylan Evans	WILL	6'2, 216	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	43.0	6.3%	6.0	2.0	0	1	2	0
C.J. Mizell	MIKE	6'2, 230	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	8	32.0	4.7%	7.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Nick Rossi	MIKE	6'0, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	25.0	3.7%	2.0	0.0	0	0	2	0
Jamel Turner	LB	6'2, 215	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	6	12.0	1.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jon Shelby	SAM	6'1, 197	Sr.	NR	4	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Newman Williams	LB	6'2, 240	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Malachi Freeman	CB				12	56.0	8.2%	1	0	3	12	0	0
Anthony Holmes	ROV				11	45.0	6.6%	0	0	2	3	0	0
Johnny Robinson	FS	5'9, 187	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	10	27.5	4.0%	1	0	2	2	0	0
Emmanuel Lartey	CB				8	25.0	3.7%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Bre' Ford	ROV	5'10, 206	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	11	19.5	2.8%	0.5	0	1	1	0	0
Bryce Cheek	CB	6'0, 188	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	7	15.0	2.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Donte Williams	CB	5'10, 172	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	5	10.0	1.5%	0	0	0	2	0	0
DeAndre Scott	CB	5'11, 174	So.	2 stars (5.3)	5	9.5	1.4%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Devonte Morgan	FS	5'10, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	6	9.5	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bill Alexander	CB				9	8.0	1.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Martel Durant	CB	5'10, 168	Sr.	NR	6	7.5	1.1%	0	0	1	1	0	0
John Senter	CB	5'7, 161	Jr.	NR	6	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sean Graves	S				5	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cory Morrow	S	6'0, 204	So.	NR	3	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Zach Guiser	S	6'0, 195	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Kris Givens	CB	5'11, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Jamal Baggett	S	5'11, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. Missing Malachi

The secondary allowed almost as many plays as it made, but if there's one player Akron could miss severely in 2014, it's Malachi Freeman, who intercepted or broke up almost as many passes (15) as the rest of the Akron secondary combined (17). He made a ton of tackles, which suggests both that he spent a lot of time near the line of scrimmage and that the man he was covering caught plenty of passes.

In all, the secondary returns only one first-stringer but all second-stringers. Make of that what you will.

Freeman's absence could change the identity of the defense a bit, but expect similar aggression overall. Chuck Amato is still the coordinator, after all.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Zach Paul	6'3, 221	Jr.	65	42.9	8	22	17	60.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Robert Stein	5'8, 171	Jr.	44	55.8	12	0	27.3%
Zach Paul	6'3, 221	Jr.	9	59.3	2	0	22.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Robert Stein	5'8, 171	Jr.	29-30	6-9	66.7%	3-7	42.9%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Fransohn Bickley	KR	5'6, 138	So.	10	16.6	0
L.T. Smith	KR	6'0, 203	Sr.	9	21.1	0
Tyler Williams	PR	5'7, 161	Sr.	11	1.9	0
Imani Davis	PR	5'9, 175	Jr.	10	3.9	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	110
Field Goal Efficiency	99
Punt Return Efficiency	74
Kick Return Efficiency	108
Punt Efficiency	65
Kickoff Efficiency	110
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	21

9. Dragged down by special teams

The most positive aspect of Akron's special teams unit in 2013 was that opponents tended to miss makeable kicks. That obviously isn't a very replicable trait from year to year.

Everybody returns, including Bickley at kick returner and a solid punter in Zach Paul, but for a team looking for one more close win to crack bowl eligibility, special teams didn't help much.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Howard	NR
6-Sep	at Penn State	38
20-Sep	Marshall	59
27-Sep	at Pittsburgh	43
TBD	Bowling Green	60
TBD	Eastern Michigan	122
TBD	Massachusetts	123
TBD	Miami (Ohio)	121
TBD	at Ball State	81
TBD	at Buffalo	107
TBD	at Kent State	102
TBD	at Ohio	108

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-26.4% (120)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	118
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-2 / -1.4
TO Luck/Game	-0.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (7, 6)

10. One more year away?

Start back up at the top of the returnees list. Kyle Pohl and Zach D'Orazio are juniors. So are backups like Conor Hundley and receivers Tyrell Goodman, Andrew Pratt, and Imani Davis. Bickley is a sophomore, as is receiver Mykel Traylor-Bennett. There will be at least two juniors on the starting offensive line, plus perhaps a freshman or a sophomore. On defense, Se'von Pittman is a sophomore. Cody Grice is a junior, as are linebackers Jatavis Brown and Dylan Evans.

There are some high-impact seniors here, from Jawon Chisholm on offense to a good chunk of the secondary. But whatever Akron accomplishes in 2014, a hefty core of potential difference-makers will return in 2015.

This is good news, as I'm not sure the schedule will cooperate enough for Akron to get to a bowl game. If you assume that Akron improves to the No. 90-100 range -- certainly a possibility -- you can see three likely conference home wins against dreadful MAC squads, plus a win over Howard to start the season. That's four. Without a non-conference upset, the Zips would have to win two of three at Buffalo, Kent State, and Ohio to get to six. To get to seven (and a more likely bid) you need to either win all three or pull an upset.

That's doable, sure, but the most likely scenario is probably another year with five or six wins, followed by a breakthrough in 2015. But Akron fans have been waiting a while; waiting one more year might not be the end of the world. This program has momentum for the first time in nearly a decade. That's good enough for now.