The big 2014 Ball State football preview: Captain Lembo has the Cardinals flying

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1. The ascent

It's not hard to analogize head coaches and pilots. You've got hundreds of buttons to push and diverse meters to watch. You (usually) have to put in a certain number of hours before you are eligible to become the pilot, and even more hours before you are allowed to pilot a high-performance aircraft. Failure in one area can doom successes in all others. Et cetera.

Piloting one flying machine can be different than piloting another. Getting a twin-engine Gulfstream into the air and back down is in almost no way analogous to flying an SR-71. To succeed in one job sometimes means you must "unlearn everything you knew about other aircraft," as the Blackbird pilot put it.

We don't know if Ball State head coach Pete Lembo is destined to become a high-performance aircraft pilot one day, and if he reaches that status, we don't know for sure how he might do. But stepping back and surveying his career to date, one can conclude this: if it can fly, Lembo can get it into the air.

I covered all of this last year ...

He inherited a nice Lehigh program from Kevin Higgins, went 11-1 in his first season, and won at least eight games in each of the next four years. At Elon, he inherited a Southern Conference program that was all-potential, minimal-production; the Phoenix had gone just 14-42 in the five years before his arrival. He went 5-6 in Year 1, then reeled off four straight winning seasons and a 2009 FCS playoff appearance. And at Ball State, he inherited a team in serious flux. The Cardinals had gone 12-2 in 2008, Brady Hoke's final year in charge, but they went just 6-18 in two years under Stan Parrish. Lembo engineered an immediate, two-game improvement in 2011, then reeled off a surprising 9-4 season in 2012.

In just over a decade, Lembo has won, and won pretty big, in the Patriot League (northeastern, with mostly need-based aid for players), the Southern Conference (an FCS powerhouse), and the MAC (a midwestern mid-major).

"One stat that one of my assistants threw at me recently: There are only seven head coaches that have won nine or more games at three or more schools," Lembo told me. He's one of them.

... so I'm repeating myself. But it's worth reviewing in the wake of a 2013 season in which Ball State took yet another step forward. The Cardinals won 10 games for just the second time in three decades, came within a quarter of the MAC West title, and ranked in the F/+ top 60 for the first time in six years. The defense is still a work in progress, but the offense arrived. And if it can find a new quarterback, it should thrive again in 2014.

If they could get a washing machine to fly, Pete Lembo could land it. And if he keeps it up in Muncie, he'll be manning a pretty large aircraft in the not-too-distant future.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 8-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 57
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	Illinois State	N/A	51-28	W	25.6 - 28.6	L
7-Sep	Army	100	40-14	W	25.9 - 20.6	W
14-Sep	at North Texas	51	27-34	L	46.1 - 28.9	W
21-Sep	at Eastern Michigan	124	51-20	W	29.0 - 35.8	L
28-Sep	Toledo	62	31-24	W	33.0 - 25.2	W	4.1
5-Oct	at Virginia	79	48-27	W	34.8 - 38.5	L	4.0
12-Oct	Kent State	106	27-24	W	30.7 - 29.2	W	3.2
19-Oct	at Western Michigan	117	38-17	W	29.5 - 33.4	L	-1.0
26-Oct	at Akron	108	42-24	W	37.3 - 33.1	W	1.2
6-Nov	Central Michigan	111	44-24	W	42.2 - 35.0	W	1.0
13-Nov	at Northern Illinois	60	27-48	L	37.6 - 35.3	W	2.2
29-Nov	Miami (Ohio)	123	55-14	W	43.6 - 33.7	W	3.9
5-Jan	vs. Arkansas State	90	20-23	L	23.2 - 27.1	L	3.9

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+4.7%	44	-4.6%	85	+2.1%	25
Points Per Game	38.5	15	24.7	48
Adj. Points Per Game	33.7	26	31.1	94

2. The yards kept piling up, for better and worse

Calling Ball State's defense a "work in progress" is a polite way of saying it isn't very good yet. Lembo inherited a defense that was 109th in Def. F/+, and in three years, it has ranked 109th again in 2011, 87th in 2012, and 85th in 2013. So it is technically improving, but not at the rate of the offense, which also ranked 109th in Off. F/+ the year before Lembo arrived.

That said, the defense was pretty close to average at the beginning of the year. But as the offense clicked late in the season, the defense lost its way.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): BSU 31.7, Opponent 28.5 (plus-3.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): BSU 32.0, Opponent 31.6 (plus-0.4)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): BSU 40.2, Opponent 34.3 (plus-5.9)

Depth and injuries appeared to take a toll as the season progressed. Three of the eight primary defensive linemen missed at least one game, two linebackers played just about every snap (and one missed a game as well), and while the tackles were well-distributed in the secondary, so were the injuries and missed snaps -- only three of the nine primary defensive backs played in all 13 games. This played a role in the Cardinals' sketchy late-season defense, but it also could have played a role within each of three losses; Ball State was outscored 31-0 in the fourth quarter of two regular season losses and gave up a last-second scoring drive in a sloppy, windblown GoDaddy Bowl.

A team with Ball State's November offense and September defense would have probably won the MAC; alas, the Cardinals fell just short of the title game and gave themselves something more to shoot for despite a high level of overall success.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.18	44	IsoPPP+	99.8	62
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	50.5%	7	Succ. Rt. +	106.3	42
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.8	48	Def. FP+	99.4	66
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	25	Redzone S&P+	101.8	53
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.1		ACTUAL	19	-4.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	19	45	42	54
RUSHING	79	85	88	107
PASSING	12	31	12	15
Standard Downs		61	59	65
Passing Downs		30	26	62

Q1 Rk	39	1st Down Rk	69
Q2 Rk	41	2nd Down Rk	42
Q3 Rk	79	3rd Down Rk	50
Q4 Rk	94

3. Masters of efficiency

Throw early, throw often. With Keith Wenning behind center, that was Ball State's offensive mantra in 2013. We'll see how much that changes now that Wenning has graduated, but the Cardinals' quick-strike offense was wonderfully effective last fall. Ball State's 50.5 percent success rate was one of the seven best in the country, and while the big plays could have been a little bigger, BSU didn't need many to big gains to move points.

Of course, the relative lack of big plays may have hurt Ball State late in games as defenses found a rhythm against the efficiency passing. Look at the per-quarter rankings above -- BSU was 39th and 41st in the first half, 79th and 94th in the second.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Keith Wenning

319

498

4148

35

7

64.1%

13

2.5%

8.0

Ozzie Mann

6'1, 230

So.

2 stars (5.2)

2

9

29

0

1

22.2%

3

25.0%

-0.7

Kyle Kamman

6'2, 180

Jr.

NR

Jack Milas

6'1, 199

RSFr.

2 stars (5.4)

David Morrison

6'1, 170

Fr.

2 stars (5.3)

4. Got a quarterback?

Keith Wenning's progress as Ball State's starting quarterback mirrored the Cardinals' growth as a whole under Lembo. A four-year starter, Wenning was Stan Parrish's last quarterback in 2010; his passer rating improved from 111.3 as a freshman to 125.1 to 134.8 to 154.4. He completed around 64 percent of his passes all three years under Lembo, but the per-completion yardage improved (from 9.7 to 10.3 to 13.0), and the interception rate dropped (from 2.4 percent to 2.2 to 1.4). He took a leap in 2013, and so did Ball State's offense.

Four-year starters don't become fifth-year starters, however. Wenning moves on, and his replacement is far from obvious.

Ozzie Mann took backup snaps last year but did absolutely nothing with them, getting sacked more times than he completed passes. Kyle Kamman was the team's holder on special teams but did not throw a pass. Jack Milas was the highest-rated of the three from a recruiting standpoint, but he's a redshirt freshman. If Ball State can find a quarterback, the offense could shape up beautifully. But that's an enormous "if."

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Jahwan Edwards	RB	5'10, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	212	1110	14	5.2	4.0	42.0%
Horactio Banks	RB	5'10, 184	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	95	595	7	6.3	8.5	37.9%
Teddy Williamson	RB	5'9, 171	So.	2 stars (5.4)	68	224	1	3.3	2.5	32.4%
Keith Wenning	QB				32	126	5	3.9	2.1	37.5%
Zane Fakes	TE				7	48	0	6.9	2.5	71.4%
Jamill Smith	WR				4	33	1	8.3	10.1	50.0%
Darian Green	RB	5'8, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Willie Snead	WR-X				172	106	1516	61.6%	34.6%	69.5%	8.8	203	9.1	201.1
Jordan Williams	WR-X	6'2, 216	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	108	72	1050	66.7%	21.7%	52.5%	9.7	193	9.1	139.3
Jamill Smith	WR-Z				97	67	911	69.1%	19.5%	70.8%	9.4	127	8.7	120.8
Zane Fakes	TE				70	41	410	58.6%	14.1%	67.7%	5.9	-111	4.2	54.4
KeVonn Mabon (2012)	WR-X	6'3, 208	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	30	23	335	76.7%	6.4%	73.3%	11.2	N/A	10.7	34.4
Connor Ryan	WR-W				13	10	68	76.9%	2.6%	72.7%	5.2	-43	6.6	9.0
Jahwan Edwards	RB	5'10, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	7	31	58.3%	2.4%	58.3%	2.6	-58	2.7	4.1
Dylan Curry	TE	6'5, 260	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	6	4	39	66.7%	1.2%	40.0%	6.5	-9	4.8	5.2
Teddy Williamson	RB	5'9, 171	So.	2 stars (5.4)	3	2	4	66.7%	0.6%	N/A	1.3	-20	0.0	0.5
Efe Scott-Emuakpor	WR	6'3, 183	So.	3 stars (5.5)	2	1	12	50.0%	0.4%	N/A	6.0	-2	0.0	1.6
Horactio Banks	RB	5'10, 184	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	2	1	7	50.0%	0.4%	100.0%	3.5	-7	1.9	0.9
Aaron Hepp	WR-W	6'3, 186	So.	NR	2	2	29	100.0%	0.4%	50.0%	14.5	9	13.9	3.8
Sam Brunner	TE	6'2, 237	So.	2 stars (5.2)	2	2	44	100.0%	0.4%	100.0%	22.0	24	12.2	5.8
Calvin Blank	TE	6'4, 234	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Roy Denson	WR	6'0, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jordan Hogue	WR	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Devin Reece	WR	6'1, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. The new guy will have weapons

Wenning's favorite target, X receiver Willie Snead, declared for the NFL Draft a year early, and Nos. 3 and 4 targets Jamill Smith and tight end Zane Fakes each ran out of eligibility. These are reasons for concern, but it's difficult to get too worried about Ball State's skill position unit. The Cardinals still return Jordan Williams, who averaged nearly 10 yards per target over eight-plus targets per game. They get big-play threat KeVonn Mabon back after he missed most of 2013 with injury. They have an exciting three-star redshirt freshman tight end in Calvin Blank, and three interesting freshmen will vie for playing time.

Meanwhile, in the backfield, the nameless starting quarterback will line up with one of two promising backs -- either grinder Jahwan Edwards (minimal explosiveness, strong efficiency) or home-run hitter Horactio Banks. Ball State was awful in short-yardage situations last year, and that will need to improve to do the new QB a few favors, but there is a wealth of quality options in the skill position unit as a whole.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	95.8	3.25	3.24	39.6%	48.6%	18.2%	245.6	1.6%	3.7%
Rank	87	21	68	63	123	53	7	5	16

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Jordan Hansel	RG				38	1st All-MAC
Matthew Page	LT				16
Jacob Richard	C	6'1, 285	Jr.	NR	16
Steven Bell	RT	6'4, 290	So.	2 stars (5.2)	13
Jalen Schlachter	LG	6'6, 317	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12
P.J. Scott	LG	6'2, 293	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	2
Jeremiah Harvey	LT	6'2, 300	Jr.	NR	0
Taylor Hoke	C	6'1, 296	Sr.	NR	0
Nick Plavchak	RG	6'4, 301	Jr.	NR	0
Drake Miller	RT	6'4, 289	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Tyler Rayburn	LG	6'3, 296	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Haris Vrabac	OL	6'7, 337	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Pat Maloney	OL	6'2, 274	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Vinnie Palazeti	OL	6'4, 284	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Alex Joss	OL	6'4, 295	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Malik King	OL	6'3, 285	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

6. The line held up

My biggest concern for the offense heading into last year was a dreadfully inexperienced offensive line. Granted, the lack of short-yardage success was indeed a concern, but for the most part the line held up. It kept defenders out of the backfield on both run and pass (and yes, the quick, short passing helped, too), and while BSU's is a pass-first offense, when the Cardinals tried to run on first down, they were pretty good at it.

In 2014, Ball State must replace its two most experienced linemen, including all-conference guard Jordan Hansel, but the 43 career starts it returns in 2014 is a much greater number than last year. And a lot of Ball State's more highly touted recruits in recent years are linemen.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.08	35	IsoPPP+	93.8	96
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.4%	79	Succ. Rt. +	89.3	101
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.5	16	Off. FP+	100.5	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.8	20	Redzone S&P+	100.8	57
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.6		ACTUAL	31.0	+9.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	78	101	101	114
RUSHING	93	98	98	87
PASSING	44	104	103	121
Standard Downs		101	92	107
Passing Downs		94	110	65

Q1 Rk	87	1st Down Rk	107
Q2 Rk	97	2nd Down Rk	87
Q3 Rk	117	3rd Down Rk	96
Q4 Rk	95

7. Now fix the defense

Kevin Kelly's been around. In 30 years as a football coach, Kelly has taken up residence at Southern Connecticut State (1984-85), Syracuse (1986-87, 1999), Bowdoin (1988), Northeastern (1989-90), Dartmouth (1991, 1995), Tulane (1992-94), Marshall (1996-98, 2000-01), and Navy (2002-05). Like Lembo, Kelly has coached in a lot of states for a lot of different types of programs. He spent the last eight seasons fighting an uphill battle as Georgetown's head coach, going 5-38 in his first four seasons but building an 8-3 team in Year 6.

Kelly will be taking on a difficult task in 2014: making something of the Ball State defense. Now, by MAC standards, the Cardinals weren't bad in 2013, but by "potential top-50 team" standards, it was an anchor. Ball State allowed far too many big plays in the secondary, and the run defense wasn't good enough to make up for that.

Kelly inherits an experienced unit overall, but he'll have some work to do up front. The pass rush was a strength, but end Jonathan Newsome, tackle Nathan Ollie, and linebacker Kenneth Lee, the blitzer of choice, are all gone; they combined for 14.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss in 2013. Ball State's 2014 line will be built around sturdy end Nick Miles, scrubs, and newcomers. If it fares as well as last year's line (or better) against the run, the back seven should have enough pieces to thrive.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	90.5	3.20	3.78	40.3%	67.8%	15.8%	109.9	4.5%	6.4%
Rank	102	98	109	78	70	103	42	60	71

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nathan Ollie	DT				13	51.0	6.5%	10.0	4.0	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Newsome	DE				12	44.0	5.6%	11.5	8.0	1	1	2	0
Nick Miles	DE	6'2, 265	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	28.5	3.6%	8.5	5.0	0	1	0	0
Joel Cox	NG				13	26.0	3.3%	2.0	0.5	0	1	0	0
Michael Ayers	DE	6'1, 218	Jr.	NR	10	9.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darnell Smith	DT	5'11, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	9.0	1.1%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	1
Tracy Key	DE	6'2, 232	Sr.	NR	13	8.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Carlutorbantu Zaramo	NG	6'3, 301	So.	2 stars (5.2)	12	2.5	0.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Ian Anderson	DT	6'3, 282	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Osazuwamen Igbinosun	DE	6'2, 245	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Daniel Garces	DL	6'1, 223	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Anthony Winbush	DE	6'1, 207	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Bruce Heggie (Notre Dame)	DT	6'5, 275	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)
Kevin Willis	DT	6'2, 295	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ben Ingle	WLB	6'0, 224	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	79.5	10.1%	3.5	0.5	1	0	1	0
Zack Ryan	MLB	5'10, 212	So.	NR	13	67.0	8.5%	8.0	2.5	0	1	2	0
Kenneth Lee	SLB				12	32.0	4.1%	4.5	2.5	1	2	0	0
Sean Wiggins	MLB	6'2, 226	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	26.5	3.4%	2.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Avery Bailey	SLB	6'0, 216	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	14.0	1.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Trent Toothman	WLB	6'0, 236	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	10.0	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Julian Boyd	WLB	6'2, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	9	4.0	0.5%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Stephan Martin	LB	5'11, 226	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	10	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Stu Stanley	LB	6'0, 207	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Damon Singleton	OLB	6'2, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jacob White	LB	6'0, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Brian Jones	SS	5'10, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	76.5	9.7%	5.5	1.5	0	6	2	1
Dae'Shaun Hurley	FS	6'0, 198	So.	2 stars (5.2)	12	59.0	7.5%	1.5	0	0	1	2	1
Eric Patterson	CB	5'10, 193	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	52.5	6.7%	1.5	0	1	7	1	0
Jeffery Garrett	CB				13	45.0	5.7%	7.5	1	5	5	1	0
J.C. Wade (2012)	SS	5'10, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	41.5	5.5%	0	0	0	5	1	0
Martez Hester	S	6'2, 188	So.	2 stars (5.2)	7	24.5	3.1%	0	0	2	2	0	0
Quintin Cooper	CB	5'7, 184	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	23.5	3.0%	2.5	0	1	0	0	0
Aaron Taylor	S	5'11, 191	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	22.5	2.9%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Joseph Fazio	FS				13	13.5	1.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Christopher Calloway	FS	5'11, 202	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	4	13.0	1.6%	2	0	0	0	1	0
Tyree Holder	CB	5'11, 163	So.	2 stars (5.3)	13	7.5	1.0%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Darius Conaway	CB	5'11, 180	So.	NR	13	7.5	1.0%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Chris Pauling	NB				11	4.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dedrick Cromartie	S	5'10, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Quentin Turner	CB	5'10, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Matt Johnson	CB	5'11, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. Depth? Check

Lee was a decent blitzer, and Jeffery Garrett made enough big plays to forgive some of the big plays he allowed. They could be missed, but they're the only losses for the Ball State back seven. Stalwart linebackers Ben Ingle and Zack Ryan are back, as are starting safeties Brian Jones (another aggressive piece, with 5.5 tackles for loss and six pass break-ups) and Dae'Shaun Hurley, who at least survived as a freshman. Senior nickel back Chris Calloway returns from injury, as does J.C. Wade, and senior corners Eric Patterson and Quintin Cooper are back, too.

Ball State has options, in other words. Experience is only a good thing if there's talent involved, and it does appear that there are enough disruptive stats among the returnees to suggest potential. We'll see if a new defensive coordinator is able to engineer a bit more improvement overall.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Kyle Schmidt	6'2, 228	So.	45	40.9	2	7	15	48.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Scott Secor	5'8, 166	Sr.	77	56.7	17	4	22.1%
Kyle Schmidt	6'2, 228	So.	18	58.7	2	1	11.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Scott Secor	5'8, 166	Sr.	60-62	16-18	88.9%	3-6	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jamill Smith	KR			26	26.0	0
Jahwan Edwards	KR	5'10, 225	Sr.	5	17.6	0
Jamill Smith	PR			10	8.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	25
Field Goal Efficiency	28
Punt Return Efficiency	87
Kick Return Efficiency	17
Punt Efficiency	80
Kickoff Efficiency	14
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	73

9. Field position? Check

Jamill Smith was a decent receiver and an excellent return man. He will be missed in special teams, but the bones of this unit are still pretty strong. Scott Secor was good as both a place-kicker and a kickoffs man -- he didn't boot many touchbacks, but Ball State was 15th in opponents' kick return averages, which suggests that Secor was excellent at kicking them high and landing them around the 5. Meanwhile, Kyle Schmidt wasn't awful for a freshman punter. If a semi-competent return man emerges, Ball State should be adept at playing the field position game once again.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Colgate	NR
6-Sep	at Iowa	40
13-Sep	Indiana State	NR
20-Sep	at Toledo	53
4-Oct	at Army	101
11-Oct	Western Michigan	113
18-Oct	at Central Michigan	106
25-Oct	Akron	118
5-Nov	Northern Illinois	51
12-Nov	at Massachusetts	123
22-Nov	Eastern Michigan	122
28-Nov	at Bowling Green	60

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-11.4% (90)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	101
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	12 / -1.5
TO Luck/Game	+5.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (6, 6)

10. It all hinges on quarterback play

It does bear mentioning that Ball State appeared to have quite a bit of turnovers luck (plus-5.2 points per game) in 2013. The Cardinals somehow recovered 18 of 20 opponent fumbles; plus, opponents picked off only eight Ball State passes while breaking up 61. Typically, the INT-to-PBU ratio is closer to 1-to-4, not 1-to-8. So with worse breaks, BSU easily could have been in the 8-5 range.

That said, the efficiency of the offense was not lucky. The skill positions are still stocked, and the line is more experienced than last year, and if the secondary can stay healthy, the defense might be able to improve a bit more in 2014. The schedule cooperates -- and by that, I mean it features eight games against teams projected 101st or worse -- and the foundation of the program should ensure that the Cardinals reach a third straight bowl game.

Whether they compete for the MAC title or not, however, will depend on the quarterback. It's not a guarantee that Ball State actually has one ready to play well in 2014. You don't get very far doubting Pete Lembo, but BSU could take a step backwards this fall depending on what happens behind center.