The big 2014 Ohio football preview: Bobcats freshening up

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1. Time for some new blood

Sometimes relationships just grow stale.

It only felt like quarterback Tyler Tettleton and running back Beau Blankenship were Ohio starters for a full decade. Tettleton began his residence in the Ohio backfield in 2009, redshirted, and took over for good in 2011. After originally signing with Iowa State out of high school (the same Norman, Okla., high school as Tettleton, by the way), Blankenship followed the same path.

In three years, the Ohio team led by Tettleton and Blankenship (among others) won 26 games and very nearly won the MAC in 2011. Of the six bowls Ohio has attended in the last 40 years, three occurred with these two in the backfield, including both bowl wins in school history.

Things happened with these two leading the way, in other words. But things stopped happening at quite the same rate over the last year and a half. Ohio finished the 2012 season 1-4 before crushing ULM in the Independence Bowl. And after a 5-2 start in 2013, the Bobcats lost three games by a combined 123-16, rallied to beat an awful UMass team, then faded late in a 17-point Beef O'Brady's Bowl loss to East Carolina.

Tettleton's toughness was impressive, but his flaws were obvious and never really got ironed out. And Blankenship wasn't exactly the world's greatest when it came to hitting holes with quickness. The duo helped to lead Ohio to sustained heights; they also contributed to a pretty clear ceiling. After a three-year run that led to unprecedented success for a program that hadn't experienced much of it before head coach Frank Solich arrived in 2005, a new start is probably a good thing.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 104
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
1-Sep	at Louisville	12	7-49	L	30.1 - 36.9	L
7-Sep	North Texas	51	27-21	W	37.8 - 18.9	W
14-Sep	Marshall	52	34-31	W	27.0 - 29.1	L
21-Sep	Austin Peay	N/A	38-0	W	29.5 - 28.2	W
5-Oct	at Akron	108	43-3	W	30.7 - 6.4	W	7.1
12-Oct	Central Michigan	111	23-26	L	34.8 - 29.9	W	9.4
19-Oct	at Eastern Michigan	124	56-28	W	30.1 - 40.1	L	3.7
26-Oct	Miami (Ohio)	123	41-16	W	31.6 - 24.0	W	5.6
5-Nov	at Buffalo	80	3-30	L	8.8 - 38.6	L	-0.6
12-Nov	at Bowling Green	47	0-49	L	10.6 - 36.0	L	-10.6
19-Nov	Kent State	106	13-44	L	7.7 - 36.7	L	-17.3
29-Nov	Massachusetts	118	51-23	W	32.4 - 24.4	W	-13.7
23-Dec	vs. East Carolina	40	20-37	L	28.4 - 31.0	L	-15.8

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-9.7%	101	-12.8%	110	+2.3%	20
Points Per Game	27.4	73	27.5	72
Adj. Points Per Game	26.1	85	29.3	78

2. Zero sum

If you've been reading all of these MAC previews (and of course you have!), you know that quite a few MAC teams followed a similar "stink early, improve late" path -- Kent State and Central Michigan, to name two. Well, if some teams are moving up, someone has to be moving down. That's where Ohio comes in.

Despite a shaky season-opening performance against Louisville, the Bobcats were legitimately strong through the first week of October, taking down two strong mid-majors (North Texas and Marshall) and crushing an Akron team not far removed from a near-upset of Michigan. Turnovers doomed the Bobcats in a Homecoming loss to Central Michigan (Ohio lost two of three fumbles, and Tettleton threw a pair of interceptions while also completing 24 of 33 for 319 yards), but they continued to play reasonably well in moving to 6-2 heading into November.

But for the second straight season, November was a nightmare for the Bobcats.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Ohio 31.0, Opponent 23.9 (plus-7.1)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 3 games): Ohio 32.2, Opponent 31.3 (plus-0.9)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 5 games): Opponent 33.3, Ohio 17.6 (minus-15.7)

Call it the curse of the phantom safety. Trailing 7-3 early in the third quarter against Buffalo, a Tettleton throwaway from about the three-yard line was somehow deemed intentional grounding in the end zone. Over the next six quarters, the Bobcats were outscored, 72-0. They gained just 405 total yards against Buffalo and Bowling Green, then put up a 204-yard stinker against a still-pretty-bad Kent State squad.

The offense rallied, gaining 996 yards and scoring 71 points in Tettleton's final two games behind center, but it crumbled again late in the bowl game, and Ohio's second consecutive late-season collapse was complete.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.26	14	IsoPPP+	109.0	24
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.6%	87	Succ. Rt. +	87.4	106
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.9	51	Def. FP+	100.4	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	92	Redzone S&P+	91.5	92
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.6		ACTUAL	24	+0.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	84	84	107	88
RUSHING	99	118	124	111
PASSING	53	39	50	38
Standard Downs		72	107	12
Passing Downs		96	89	99

Q1 Rk	90	1st Down Rk	53
Q2 Rk	97	2nd Down Rk	119
Q3 Rk	77	3rd Down Rk	84
Q4 Rk	81

3. The big plays were really big

Dreadful inefficiency did Ohio in at times; the running game suffered from both tentative running from Blankenship and sketchy blocking from a line that was getting shuffled every game. And I do mean every game: Ohio started a different combination of offensive linemen for each of the first eight games of the season. (Strangely, the offense collapsed as the line finally stabilized a bit.)

Frank Solich has too much Tom Osborne in him to give up on the run entirely, but it just wasn't working in 2013. It resulted in far too many second-and-nines and third-and-sevens. The big plays Ohio did manage were quite big -- despite sketchy offensive numbers overall, the Bobcats managed 15 gains of 40+ yards, 47th in the country -- and with some of the offense's biggest home run hitters returning (running back Daz'mond Patterson and receiver Chase Cochran, to name two), the explosiveness might be there again in 2014. But that won't matter unless this offense figures out how to avoid digging itself immediate holes in the ground.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Tyler Tettleton				230	371	2851	21	12	62.0%	14	3.6%	7.1
Derrius Vick	6'1, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	21	45	277	1	1	46.7%	5	10.0%	4.8
J.D. Sprague	6'1, 190	So.	NR	5	6	62	0	0	83.3%	0	0.0%	10.3
Greg Windham	6'1, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Joey Duckworth	6'3, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

4. Either a four-way battle or a one-way battle

If you remember one good Ohio play from the bowl game, it probably isn't one that came from Tettleton.

Derrius Vick, manning the quarterback position for a drive early in the second quarter, stepped out of a fake run and threw an 80-yard touchdown to Donte Foster to tie the game at 14-14 20 minutes in. It was a play that hinted at what an offense built around Vick could resemble. For two years, Vick was Tettleton's understudy, an option threat who can add a dimension to the run game and a player with an arm just good enough to make things work. Whereas Tettleton attempted 778 passes to 123 rushes in the last two years (86 percent pass), Vick attempted 81 to 41 (66 percent pass). We know the run game might need help, and Vick could provide it.

At the same time, however, we don't yet know whether Vick is actually a good quarterback. Take that 80-yard bomb away, and Vick's other 49 pass attempts in 2013 (44 passes, five sacks) netted a dreadful 160 yards. In two years, he's completed 40 of 75 passes (53 percent) for 526 yards with six sacks, and most of his damage was done in a 2012 spot start against lowly Norfolk State. And not including sacks, he has rushed 41 times for 183 yards; that's decent, but it doesn't scream "Run threat!!!"

Vick is the presumed favorite for the starting job as 2014 spring practice begins, and if he plays well, there is no quarterback battle to speak of in Athens. But if he struggles, there are plenty of other candidates who could take his place, namely former walk-on J.D. Sprague, who also got a little backup time in 2013, and incoming star freshman Joey Duckworth, the highest-rated member of a pretty exciting recruiting class. It's Vick's job to lose, but there's a chance he loses it.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Beau Blankenship	RB				204	910	5	4.5	5.6	28.4%
Ryan Boykin	RB				103	399	7	3.9	2.2	36.9%
Daz'mond Patterson	RB	5'7, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	38	211	2	5.6	5.6	39.5%
Tim Edmond	RB	5'11, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	31	108	0	3.5	2.0	38.7%
Tyler Tettleton	QB				29	135	0	4.7	4.5	51.7%
Derrius Vick	QB	6'1, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	25	106	1	4.2	4.4	40.0%
J.D. Sprague	QB	6'1, 190	So.	NR	5	33	1	6.6	4.5	60.0%
Dorian Brown	RB	5'11, 196	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Papi White	RB	5'9, 166	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Maleek Irons	RB	6'0, 211	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Donte Foster	WR-X				110	69	1021	62.7%	27.2%	46.9%	9.3	174	9.8	141.0
Chase Cochran	WR-Z	6'2, 192	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	53	37	689	69.8%	13.1%	75.0%	13.0	259	11.7	95.1
Matt Waters	WR				50	32	446	64.0%	12.3%	37.5%	8.9	57	10.5	61.6
Troy Hill	TE				27	20	257	74.1%	6.7%	47.8%	9.5	31	9.5	35.5
Beau Blankenship	RB				24	15	62	62.5%	5.9%	40.0%	2.6	-122	2.0	8.6
Mario Dovell	WR-Z				24	15	139	62.5%	5.9%	50.0%	5.8	-45	7.4	19.2
Sebastian Smith	WR-X	6'3, 190	So.	3 stars (5.7)	23	12	82	52.2%	5.7%	66.7%	3.6	-80	4.1	11.3
Daz'mond Patterson	RB	5'7, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	19	13	120	68.4%	4.7%	70.6%	6.3	-33	5.5	16.6
Landon Smith	WR-F	6'0, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	19	10	112	52.6%	4.7%	41.7%	5.9	-23	6.4	15.5
Ryan Boykin	RB				15	9	59	60.0%	3.7%	38.5%	3.9	-54	4.5	8.1
Anthony Talbert	TE				14	6	94	42.9%	3.5%	45.5%	6.7	3	9.0	13.0
Jordan Reid	WR-F	6'3, 200	So.	2 stars (5.2)	10	6	61	60.0%	2.5%	42.9%	6.1	-14	4.0	8.4
Ian Dixon	WR	5'7, 170	Jr.	NR	8	5	21	62.5%	2.0%	50.0%	2.6	-40	1.3	2.9
Troy Mangen	TE	6'5, 252	So.	2 stars (5.2)	5	4	12	80.0%	1.2%	100.0%	2.4	-32	1.1	1.7
Mason Morgan	TE	6'6, 259	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Justin Wyatt	WR	6'1, 186	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Brendan Cope	WR	6'2, 189	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Brennan Boland	TE	6'5, 250	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Robbie Walker	WR	5'9, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	84.8	2.8	2.5	34.6%	52.8%	18.7%	143.8	4.0%	4.0%
Rank	114	83	117	109	119	58	22	46	21

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Jon Lechner	RG				33
Ryan McGrath	RT				25
John Prior	LT				22
Mike Lucas	LG	6'4, 311	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12
Lucas Powell	C	6'3, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12
Mike McQueen	LT	6'6, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	8
Troy Watson	RT	6'6, 290	So.	2 stars (5.2)	4
Durrell Wood	RG	6'3, 344	So.	2 stars (5.4)	3
Sam Johnson	RG				1
Nick Gibbons	RG	6'5, 308	So.	3 stars (5.5)	1
Seth Everhart	LG	6'4, 311	Jr.	NR	0
Mark Smith	C				0
Zack Murdock	OL	6'6, 291	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Jared McCray	OL	6'5, 320	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Joe Lowery	OL	6'6, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0

5. Stability, please

New blood can be a good thing, but it's not guaranteed to be a good thing. For example, though leading rushers Blankenship and Ryan Boykin averaged a paltry 4.3 yards per carry in 2013, it's not automatically assured that Daz Patterson, Tim Edmond, and some young guys will fare better*. Meanwhile, it's not guaranteed that the next crop of Ohio wideouts will be able to match what Donte Foster, Matt Waters, etc., did last fall. Ohio's top three receivers averaged a strong 10.1 yards per target in 2013, and Cochran is the only of the top six targets to return.

If you've got uncertainty at quarterback, running back, and receiver, you at least need to know you've got stability up front. And at the very least, the Ohio line will have more of that than it did a year ago.

Ten Bobcat linemen finished 2013 with starting experience; three were freshmen and three were sophomores. That is a recipe for disaster, and sure enough, the run blocking was far from strong. But it does mean that six seasoned players return for 2014, and none of them are seniors. The line should improve, and then it should improve again in 2015. There appears to be a strong base of talent for new offensive co-coordinator Scott Isphording and new offensive line coach Dave Johnson.

* My assumption is that Patterson and company will indeed fare better. Edmond should be able to play the short-yardage role with reasonable success, and as long as one of three young, exciting prospects -- redshirt freshman Dorian Brown and true freshmen Papi White and Maleek Irons -- is ready to play a backup role, things should be fine, especially with a mobile quarterback and the extra dimension he provides.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.18	82	IsoPPP+	88.1	116
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.7%	52	Succ. Rt. +	95.0	75
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.6	32	Off. FP+	101.5	44
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	110	Redzone S&P+	75.7	122
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.5		ACTUAL	22.0	-0.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	68	104	75	100
RUSHING	85	112	82	112
PASSING	43	95	73	73
Standard Downs		96	64	114
Passing Downs		114	99	94

Q1 Rk	96	1st Down Rk	94
Q2 Rk	80	2nd Down Rk	99
Q3 Rk	102	3rd Down Rk	89
Q4 Rk	96

6. The big plays were really big

One of the Ohio offense's few strengths (the magnitude of big plays) was one of the defense's weaknesses. The Bobcats were semi-efficient in leveraging offenses into passing downs, but when they sprang a leak, it was a gusher. Ohio allowed 34 plays of at least 30 yards, 104th in the country. Between three-and-outs and a good punt returner (Travis Carrie, now graduated), the Bobcats did pretty well in the field position game. But big plays and a complete lack of red zone defense did quite a bit of damage.

The front seven had a rather drastic freshman and sophomore presence, which led to breakdowns, but to the extent that youth was a problem, it probably won't be one in 2014. The top seven linemen return (including three sophomores and a junior), as do the top two linebackers (both juniors).

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	80.2	3.06	4.22	38.2%	80.0%	15.2%	111	5.8%	8.0%
Rank	124	79	125	49	115	110	39	33	38

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Antwan Crutcher	NG	6'2, 304	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	34.0	4.5%	6.0	1.5	0	0	1	0
Kurt Laseak	DE	6'4, 236	So.	2 stars (5.2)	13	30.5	4.0%	1.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Cameron McLeod	DT	6'5, 282	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	26.5	3.5%	4.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Tarell Basham	DE	6'4, 250	So.	2 stars (5.4)	13	23.0	3.0%	8.5	7.5	0	1	1	0
Casey Sayles	DE	6'3, 268	So.	2 stars (5.4)	11	23.0	3.0%	5.5	3.5	0	0	0	0
Brandon Purdum	DT	6'3, 270	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	13	20.5	2.7%	6.0	2.0	0	2	0	0
Kendric Smith	DE	6'3, 244	Sr.	NR	11	15.0	2.0%	2.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Ty Branz	DE				6	14.5	1.9%	6.0	5.5	0	0	0	0
Watson Tautuiaki	NG	6'2, 304	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	11	10.0	1.3%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Nic Barber	DL				11	9.5	1.3%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Tony Davis	DT	6'3, 280	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	9	7.5	1.0%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Trent Smart	DE	6'3, 249	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Tony Porter	DT	6'1, 289	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Kent Berger	DE	6'4, 249	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Kyle Kuhar	DT	6'5, 272	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. An undersized line that wasn't undersized

When you look at Ohio's line stats, you rather quickly form a mental image of a team that got pushed around (124th in Adj. Line Yards) but was able to get to the passer in passing situations (39th in Adj. Sack Rate). That suggests a quickness-over-size approach. But while the linebackers are a bit on the undersized side, the line is not. The top four returning ends average 250 pounds (not huge, but not small for a MAC program), and the top four returning tackles average 290.

Ohio's problems appeared to be as much because of overpursuit and inexperience as anything else. If this is the case, the woes could be cured to some degree this fall.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ben Russell	MLB	6'1, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	64.5	8.5%	8.5	3.0	0	1	0	0
Jovon Johnson	SLB	6'0, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	48.0	6.3%	3.0	0.5	1	2	0	0
Keith Moore	WLB				10	39.0	5.2%	3.0	1.5	0	1	0	0
Brandon Atwell	WLB				13	21.5	2.8%	1.5	0.5	0	1	1	0
Nieco Teipel	SLB				12	17.0	2.2%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Blair Brown	MLB	6'0, 220	So.	NR	7	13.0	1.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
William Johnson	LB	6'2, 215	So.	NR	9	5.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
A.J. Grady, Jr.	LB				3	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jake Schany	LB	6'3, 225	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Jarred Brumfield	LB	6'3, 219	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Josh Kristoff	SS	6'0, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	54.0	7.1%	1.5	0	0	5	2	0
Xavier Hughes	SS				13	49.0	6.5%	0.5	0	4	5	1	0
Thad Ingol	FS	6'0, 215	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	38.0	5.0%	2	1	3	2	0	1
Travis Carrie	CB				13	36.5	4.8%	1.5	1	4	8	0	0
Nathan Carpenter	NB	5'9, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	34.5	4.6%	1	0	0	3	1	0
Devin Bass	CB	5'9, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	33.5	4.4%	1.5	0	2	15	0	0
Ian Wells	CB	5'11, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	8	13.5	1.8%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Aaron Macer	SS	6'0, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	10	5.5	0.7%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Dyquan Stewart	CB	5'10, 182	So.	2 stars (5.2)	6	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Devin Jones	CB	6'1, 208	Jr.	NR	10	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Toran Davis	FS	6'0, 210	So.	2 stars (5.2)	9	4.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
James Ray	S	5'10, 188	Sr.	NR	4	4.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Terpin	CB	5'10, 170	Jr.	NR	5	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Calvin Holloway	S	6'1, 203	So.	NR	4	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Blake Scipio	DB	5'11, 190	Jr.	NR	2	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Corey Quallen	S	6'1, 209	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Brett Layton	CB	5'11, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. A base of talent

Devin Bass defensed 17 passes while making only 33.5 tackles; as I always say in examples like this, that means he's either one hell of a cornerback or one hell of a poor tackler. Regardless, he's an upperclassman now, as are five other defensive backs who made at least five tackles las fall. Despite the loss of safety Xavier Hughes and corner Travis Carrie, there is experience in the back, just as there is experience everywhere else.

Ohio returns eight defensive starters and most of last year's second string. Last year's defense was easily the Bobcats' worst in the F/+ era (2005-13), but it should bounce back in 2014. And since a lot of the most exciting players on the defense -- sophomore end Tarell Basham (7.5 sacks in 2013), junior linebacker Ben Russell (8.5 tackles for loss), Bass -- are not seniors, then like the offensive line, the defense should improve this fall, then improve even more.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Grant Venham	6'3, 210	Jr.	50	37.8	4	15	14	58.0%
Matt Green	6'2, 225	Jr.	14	42.1	0	2	6	57.1%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Josiah Yazdani	5'10, 200	Jr.	70	58.1	9	0	12.9%
Matt Green	6'2, 225	Jr.	3	63.0	0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Josiah Yazdani	5'10, 200	Jr.	30-30	11-11	100.0%	3-4	75.0%
Matt Green	6'2, 225	Jr.	10-10	4-5	80.0%	0-4	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Devin Bass	KR	5'9, 185	Jr.	19	22.1	0
Nathan Carpenter	KR	5'9, 200	Sr.	14	23.3	0
Travis Carrie	PR			21	12.7	0
Devin Bass	PR	5'9, 185	Jr.	8	0.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	20
Field Goal Efficiency	61
Punt Return Efficiency	36
Kick Return Efficiency	49
Punt Efficiency	57
Kickoff Efficiency	4
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	35

9. Special teams will again be strong

The special teams unit was the saving grace for a team that ranked worse than 100th in both Off. F/+ and Def. F/+. Travis Carrie is gone, which means regression should be expected in punt returns, but Ohio's punt and kick coverage units were excellent (the Bobcats seem to have mastered the art of kicking high and short and minimizing returns, and I'm not sure why more teams don't do the same), kicker Josiah Yazdani was automatic under 40 yards, and Devin Bass and Nathan Carpenter were at least decent in kick returns.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	at Kent State	102
6-Sep	at Kentucky	76
13-Sep	at Marshall	59
20-Sep	Idaho	120
27-Sep	Eastern Illinois	NR
4-Oct	at Central Michigan	106
11-Oct	Bowling Green	60
18-Oct	Akron	118
25-Oct	at Western Michigan	113
5-Nov	Buffalo	107
18-Nov	Northern Illinois	51
25-Nov	at Miami (Ohio)	121

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-7.7% (82)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	107
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-2 / -1.2
TO Luck/Game	-0.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	11 (3, 8)

10. Careful what you wish for

The offense needed a boost and could get it in the form of new skill position players and a couple of new assistant coaches. The Ohio offense should expect to improve in the run game, and the passing game could remain reasonably explosive.

Or, a new quarterback could be far too inefficient to take heat off of the run game, and the offense could play an entire season like it did last November.

For the first time in a while, there is offensive change in Athens. It's easy to get excited about the potential explosiveness of the new batch of starters, but there's no guarantee that Ohio will replace eight offensive starters without a year of a dropoff. The schedule will help ease the growing pains -- Ohio plays eight teams projected 102nd or worse -- but with an offense figuring things out and a defense trying to recover from a bad year, 2014 could quite possibly see a step or two backwards.

Solich's Ohio program is on pretty sturdy ground overall. The Bobcats have been to five consecutive bowls and have won at least seven games six times in the nine-year Solich era (they had done so only five times before Solich), and most of the key 2014 players are underclassmen, from the quarterback to the running backs to the offensive line to most of the defense. Ohio could be outstanding in 2015, but 2014 is uncertain. I'm setting the bar at a schedule-aided six wins.