The big 2014 Bowling Green football preview: The pieces fit

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1. The Falcons were ready

I don't want to claim that this is the year BGSU's title streak comes to an end. There are plenty of MAC teams with a strong shot at the top spot -- the usual suspects (Northern Illinois, Toledo, Ohio), the upstarts (Central Michigan, Buffalo), the encores (Kent State, Ball State), and the bouncebacks (Western Michigan) might all have roles to play in what should be a really fun race. All I can say for sure, though, is that Bowling Green had one of the best mid-major defenses in the country last season and will bring one of the most experienced FBS two-deeps to the table in 2013.

The offense can expect to improve, and there is a good chance that the defense might retain the form it maintained over the final two-thirds of 2012. And if that happens, Bowling Green might have its best shot at a MAC title since Urban Meyer left. Dave Clawson has overseen the rebuilding of a program that is now quite deep and interesting. And now we get to see just how high his team's ceiling is (or, technically, isn't).

A bold, delcarative statement preceded by hedging. It's one of my specialties. Regardless, I was very high on Bowling Green in last year's SB Nation preview, and with good reason: the Falcons returned a ton of experience, the BGSU defense was incredible in the latter half of 2012, etc.

It wasn't that bold to think they had a chance to end a two-decade conference title drought -- common perceptions seemed to have the Falcons fourth or fifth in line behind NIU, Toledo, Ohio, and maybe Ball State -- but whether you saw it coming or not, it happened. BGSU won 10 games for the first time since 2003, took home the conference title, and ranked in the F/+ top 50 for the first time.

2. This could be a nice fit

After a second-year collapse, Dave Clawson built a strong foundation at Bowling Green and watched his program grow significantly for each of three straight years. And then Wake Forest hired him away. Dino Babers takes over a deep, exciting roster that seems catered for what he wants to do.

So what does Babers want to do? Move, first of all. Babers has made stops at seemingly every school in the country during his coaching career, but his last stop before taking his first head coaching job at Eastern Illinois was in Waco, where he helped to master Baylor's mach-speed attack. He brought it to Charleston, Ill., and immediately turned around a flagging program. His 2012 EIU squad improved from 2-9 to 7-5 and reached the first round of the FCS playoffs; in 2013, the Panthers erupted for 11 wins and a quarterfinal appearance.

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo passed for 5,050 yards and 53 touchdowns and somehow threw only nine interceptions with just 20 sacks in almost 600 pass attempts. EIU attempted nearly 45 passes and 42 rushes per game; on September 21, the Panthers gained 577 yards and scored 39 points on Northern Illinois. The only team that did more damage than that to NIU's defense? Bowling Green in the MAC title game.

Babers brought his EIU defensive coordinator, Kim McCloud, with him to Bowling Green as well. McCloud is also a former Briles assistant and attempted to implement a version of Baylor's attacking, big-plays-or-bust defense at EIU as well. EIU had 99 tackles for loss in 2013 and defensed 83 passes.

The name of the game for Babers' style of play is speed, and he should find a decent amount of that on both sides of the ball. But he also inherits a team with size and experience, one that should once again be considered a MAC favorite.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-4 | Adj. Record: 9-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 47
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	Tulsa	94	34-7	W	28.1 - 19.8	W
7-Sep	at Kent State	106	41-22	W	42.2 - 29.8	W
14-Sep	at Indiana	56	10-42	L	14.9 - 37.8	L
21-Sep	Murray State	N/A	48-7	W	46.5 - 30.3	W
28-Sep	Akron	108	31-14	W	32.7 - 30.8	W	3.2
5-Oct	Massachusetts	118	28-7	W	30.4 - 34.5	L	0.7
12-Oct	at Mississippi State	33	20-21	L	33.8 - 30.9	W	-1.2
26-Oct	Toledo	62	25-28	L	26.3 - 28.0	L	3.1
5-Nov	at Miami (Ohio)	123	45-3	W	30.8 - 33.3	L	-0.7
12-Nov	Ohio	104	49-0	W	46.7 - 9.1	W	6.4
23-Nov	at Eastern Michigan	124	58-7	W	31.3 - (-3.7)	W	14.3
29-Nov	at Buffalo	80	24-7	W	31.9 - 15.9	W	16.9
6-Dec	vs. Northern Illinois	60	47-27	W	51.1 - 22.9	W	22.9
26-Dec	vs. Pittsburgh	54	27-30	L	20.2 - 38.9	L	19.6

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+5.9%	38	-2.5%	76	+3.0%	9
Points Per Game	34.8	28	15.9	5
Adj. Points Per Game	33.3	29	25.6	44

3. Catching fire

Despite starting the season 5-1, BGSU was at least a little bit disappointing (to me) early in the year. The Falcons laid an egg in Bloomington, getting ripped apart by Indiana, 42-10. They beat a series of bad teams (and we came to discover as the season wore on that their 34-7 win over Tulsa wasn't as impressive as it seemed at the time), but the defense wasn't nearly as sharp as I anticipated, and it was putting pressure on the offense.

After tight losses to Mississippi State and Toledo, however, everything clicked.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 9 games): BGSU 31.7, Opponent 30.2 (plus-1.5)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): BGSU 40.3, Opponent 11.1 (plus-29.2)

BGSU allowed a combined 237 yards to Ohio and Eastern Michigan and outscored them, 107-7. They went to Buffalo for a winner-takes-the-division battle, outgained the Bulls by a 490-236 margin, and cruised. Then they went to Detroit for the MAC title game and absolutely massacred an NIU team that hadn't lost a conference game in 26 months.

Clawson was hired away by Wake, and the Falcons, led by interim coach Adam Scheier, couldn't figure out how to handle Aaron Donald and the Pittsburgh defensive line in the Pizza Bowl. Still, the November (and early December) hot streak was beyond impressive.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.18	45	IsoPPP+	98.4	71
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	49.7%	10	Succ. Rt. +	106.8	39
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	26.1	6	Def. FP+	106.4	11
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	28	Redzone S&P+	99.3	65
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.4		ACTUAL	11	-6.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	29	49	39	64
RUSHING	39	59	39	68
PASSING	31	37	36	53
Standard Downs		67	58	88
Passing Downs		19	13	63

Q1 Rk	72	1st Down Rk	67
Q2 Rk	38	2nd Down Rk	39
Q3 Rk	49	3rd Down Rk	78
Q4 Rk	85

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Matt Johnson	6'0, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	237	369	3467	25	7	64.2%	40	9.8%	7.9
Matt Schilz				13	23	180	1	0	56.5%	1	4.2%	7.3
James Knapke	6'2, 216	So.	2 stars (5.2)	4	10	71	1	0	40.0%	1	9.1%	5.8
Austin Valdez	6'0, 214	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Cody Callaway	6'3, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

4. Johnson plays with fire

It's easy to assume this will be a perfect marriage. Matt Johnson, who overtook senior Matt Schilz for the starting role early in the season (as in, Schilz threw four passes in the first game and was pulled), survived early and thrived late. In his last five games of the regular season, Johnson completed 77 of 119 passes (65 percent) for 1,368 yards, 14 touchdowns, and four interceptions. His passer rating was at 187 or higher in four of the five games, and he looked outstanding in a dual-threat role, especially against NIU. Stick him into the Babers offense and watch him thrive.

It does bear mentioning that Johnson still has a little bit of maturing to do. Like a lot of mobile quarterbacks, he trusts his mobility a bit too much and gets sacked 10 percent of the time. Yes, his sack numbers were inflated when he got sacked by Pittsburgh seven times in 40 attempts, but his sack rate was too high (8.9 percent) even before that game.

Meanwhile, Johnson may have been a bit lucky in 2013. On average, a defense will pick off one pass for every four it breaks up; defenses picked off seven BGSU passes last fall while breaking up 52, a 1-to-7.4 ratio. With a normal ratio, BGSU would have thrown about five more picks on the season.

Johnson is confident and exciting, and he was still just a sophomore (and first-time starter) in 2013. But execution and precision are key to the Briles/Babers offense. If you're taking sacks and throwing picks, you can't use tempo in your favor, and you're putting your defense in a bind. Johnson needs to improve on the mistakes in 2014. There's nothing saying he won't.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Travis Greene	RB	5'10, 181	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	279	1594	11	5.7	5.2	44.8%
Matt Johnson	QB	6'0, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	77	456	5	5.9	4.5	48.1%
William Houston	RB	6'0, 262	So.	3 stars (5.5)	49	211	11	4.3	7.1	24.5%
Fred Coppet	RB	5'10, 175	So.	3 stars (5.7)	46	214	0	4.7	2.6	47.8%
Andre Givens	RB	5'9, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	45	255	3	5.7	4.1	53.3%
Ronnie Moore	WR	5'9, 164	So.	2 stars (5.3)	14	138	0	9.9	4.7	85.7%
Jordan Hopgood	RB				13	83	0	6.4	4.7	53.8%
Marcus Levy	RB	5'10, 191	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Brandon English	RB	5'9, 189	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Eric Harrell	RB	5'9, 189	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Shaun Joplin	WR				98	54	908	55.1%	25.5%	52.3%	9.3	199	9.2	125.9
Alex Bayer	TE				54	37	585	68.5%	14.0%	55.1%	10.8	151	9.4	81.1
Heath Jackson	WR	5'11, 187	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	46	32	360	69.6%	11.9%	50.0%	7.8	-13	8.3	49.9
Chris Gallon	WR	6'4, 223	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	43	24	232	55.8%	11.2%	51.4%	5.4	-81	5.7	32.2
Ryan Burbrink	SLOT	5'8, 188	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	43	30	477	69.8%	11.2%	48.8%	11.1	128	11.3	66.1
Ronnie Moore	SLOT	5'9, 164	So.	2 stars (5.3)	34	28	547	82.4%	8.8%	72.0%	16.1	245	18.2	75.8
Travis Greene	RB	5'10, 181	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	23	18	159	78.3%	6.0%	31.8%	6.9	-39	6.8	22.0
Jared Cohen	WR	6'1, 189	Sr.	NR	13	10	121	76.9%	3.4%	71.4%	9.3	10	10.6	16.8
Tyler Beck	FB				11	10	177	90.9%	2.9%	70.0%	16.1	74	15.9	24.5
Herve Coby	WR	5'11, 177	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	7	2	29	28.6%	1.8%	N/A	4.1	-11	0.0	4.0
Jordan Hopgood	RB				4	3	28	75.0%	1.0%	75.0%	7.0	-6	9.1	3.9
Chris Pohlman	FB	6'1, 257	Sr.	NR	4	4	88	100.0%	1.0%	100.0%	22.0	48	4.7	12.2
Fred Coppet	RB	5'10, 175	So.	3 stars (5.7)	3	2	11	66.7%	0.8%	N/A	3.7	-13	0.0	1.5
Andre Givens	RB	5'9, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	2	1	3	50.0%	0.5%	N/A	1.5	-11	0.0	0.4
Logan Larson	TE	6'3, 250	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Teo Redding	WR	6'1, 159	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Gehrig Dieter (SMU)	WR	6'3, 209	So.	3 stars (5.6)	18	9	153	50.0%	3.7%	66.7%	8.5	N/A	8.7	15.6
Roger Lewis	WR	6'3, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Clint Stephens	WR	5'9, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. Options

Shaun Joplin was the unquestioned star of the 2013 BGSU receiving corps; he was targeted almost twice as much as any other Falcon receiver, and with good reason. He averaged a healthy 9.3 yards per target, and he will be missed. The same goes for tight end Alex Bayer, Johnson's No. 2 target. Replacing 152 targets is a pretty tall task.

That said, it's hard not to be excited about the pieces that return. While Joplin was the leader, seven Falcons were targeted at least 23 times in 2013, and five return. Slot receivers Ryan Burbrink and Ronnie Moore combined to average a devastating 13.3 yards per target, and if there's anything we know about the Briles system, it's that vertical threats are a huge piece of the puzzle. Burbrink, Moore, Heath Jackson and Chris Gallon are a pretty strong set of returnees, and they'll be joined by three-star freshman Roger Lewis, SMU transfer Gehrig Dieter, and others.

Johnson will have an assortment of weapons in the passing game, but that's not even the best part. BGSU's top four running backs combined to average 5.4 yards per carry and brought both efficiency (Travis Greene, Fred Coppet, Andre Givens) and explosiveness (Greene, William Houston) to the table. All four are back, as are three of five starters on a line that was excellent at creating opportunities for its backs.

There are still question marks -- it's never a good thing to lose your top two targets (at least, when they're good), and sacks are still an issue until proven otherwise -- but it's easy to get very optimistic about the BGSU offense.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.7	3.19	4.02	45.6%	64.6%	18.6%	64.7	8.0%	11.3%
Rank	59	25	13	12	86	57	114	114	113

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Dominic Flewellyn	LG				47	1st All-MAC
Chief Kekuewa	C				27	1st All-MAC
Alex Huettel	RG	6'3, 292	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	27	2nd All-MAC
Jacob Bennett	LT	6'4, 316	So.	2 stars (5.4)	14
Logan Dietz	RT	6'5, 292	So.	2 stars (5.3)	14
Clay Rolf	LT	6'6, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Spencer Cairo	LG	6'2, 302	Jr.	NR	0
J.J. Beggan	C	6'2, 285	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Ben Steward	RG	6'5, 289	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Christian Piazza	RT	6'7, 296	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Clark Clancy	OL	6'3, 277	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Tim McAuliffe	OL	6'0, 264	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Isiah Moore	OL	6'3, 280	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.07	30	IsoPPP+	101.1	54
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.2%	59	Succ. Rt. +	92.5	91
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.3	41	Off. FP+	98.5	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.3	6	Redzone S&P+	92.6	80
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.4		ACTUAL	21.0	+0.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	10	84	91	48
RUSHING	47	95	103	68
PASSING	6	57	67	25
Standard Downs		93	91	80
Passing Downs		60	81	19

Q1 Rk	83	1st Down Rk	95
Q2 Rk	71	2nd Down Rk	43
Q3 Rk	43	3rd Down Rk	58
Q4 Rk	70

6. An unexpected regression

Despite returning most of the pieces from a defense that ranked 38th in Def. F/+ in 2012, the BGSU defense was indeed a bit disappointing in 2013, at least until the stretch run. The loss of star tackle Chris Jones didn't affect the pass rush much (in both 2012 and 2013, BGSU ranked 18th in Adj. Sack Rate), but it did result in BGSU getting pushed around up front a bit more. The Falcons still made quite a few plays behind the line of scrimmage, but you could run on them, and while big-play prevention was a relative strength, efficiency was not. An experienced secondary didn't make as many plays on the ball, either.

The result: the three major-conference teams on the schedule each averaged at least 6.4 yards per play, and two averaged at least 8.0 (Pitt, Indiana). If BGSU had an overall athletic advantage, the Falcons dominated, especially late in the year. But in all, the unit wasn't as effective as I anticipated.

In 2014, there is still plenty of experience at each level of the defense, but a lot of the more aggressive pieces -- tackle Ted Ouellet, linebacker Paul Swan, corner Aaron Foster, do-everything-guy Booboo Gates -- are gone. We know Kim McCloud wants to attack; we'll see how well BGSU does it in his first year.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.4	2.94	3.78	40.1%	61.2%	19.9%	129.4	4.4%	8.7%
Rank	86	64	109	76	28	50	18	66	27

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Bryan Thomas	DE	6'2, 257	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	14	25.5	3.6%	7.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Ted Ouellet	DT				12	25.0	3.5%	8.0	6.5	1	1	1	0
Jairus Campbell	NT				14	24.0	3.3%	3.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Kendall Montgomery	DE	6'5, 262	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	14	18.0	2.5%	4.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Zach Colvin	DT	6'2, 286	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	17.5	2.4%	5.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Ronnie Goble	DE				14	15.0	2.1%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Charlie Walker	DE	6'2, 245	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	14.0	2.0%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Taylor Royster	DE	5'9, 257	Jr.	NR	14	11.5	1.6%	6.0	3.5	0	1	0	0
Terrance Bush	DE	6'2, 229	So.	NR	11	9.5	1.3%	0.5	0.5	0	2	0	0
Bryan Baird	DE	6'3, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	10	9.5	1.3%	4.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Mike Minns	NT	5'10, 293	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	6.5	0.9%	1.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Izaah Lunsford	DL	6'3, 268	So.	2 stars (5.3)	5	5.0	0.7%	3.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Jhalil-Nashid Croley	DL	6'2, 253	So.	3 stars (5.5)	8	4.0	0.6%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Johnathan Fry	DL	6'3, 266	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	5	1.5	0.2%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chance Weitz	DT	6'3, 250	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
D.J. Lynch	BUCK	5'11, 244	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	63.5	8.9%	8.0	2.0	0	1	0	1
Paul Swan	MLB				14	51.5	7.2%	5.5	1.5	0	1	2	0
Gabe Martin	ROV	6'1, 229	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	7	30.5	4.3%	3.5	2.0	0	1	1	0
Paul Senn	BUCK	6'1, 217	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	14	28.5	4.0%	5.0	1.5	0	1	1	0
Coy Brown III	MLB	5'11, 221	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	14	8.5	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Aaron Banks	LB	6'1, 234	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Patric Hannon	LB	5'11, 226	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Nate Locke	LB	6'0, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jalen Dingle	LB	6'2, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. The intersection of upside and experience

At each level of the defense, you see seniors leading the way; the fop four returning tacklers on the line, the top three at linebacker, and four of the top six at defensive back are all in their final years of eligibility, and this defense as a whole will have more senior influence than the last couple of Falcon defenses did.

That's not necessarily good news for 2015, but even assuming a senior-laden starting lineup, the second string (and some parts of the first string) will aggressive, young options (ends Taylor Royster and Bryan Baird, tackle Izaah Lunsford at tackle) or recent three- or high-two-star recruits (tackle Mike Minns, three redshirt freshmen at linebacker, defensive backs Will Watson, Isaiah Gourdine, James Sanford, and Omar Pierre-Louis). Plus, Babers was able to lock down some exciting February signatures, including that of four-star safety (and one-time Louisville commit) Nilijah Ballewl.

There is experience on the first string and upside on the second. It will be interesting to see how much of each is featured as the year progresses.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ryland Ward	WHIP	5'10, 206	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	14	67.5	9.4%	1	0	2	5	1	0
Booboo Gates	STUD				14	58.0	8.1%	4.5	0.5	2	3	2	1
Cameron Truss	CB				14	51.0	7.1%	0	0	1	6	0	0
Aaron Foster	CB				14	47.0	6.6%	2	0	1	9	0	0
Brian Sutton	CB	6'0, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	14	30.0	4.2%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Darrell Hunter II (2012)	CB	5'8, 174	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	21.5	3.3%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Jude Adjei-Barimah	WHIP	5'10, 204	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	13	20.5	2.9%	3	1	0	3	0	0
Will Watson	CB	5'11, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	14.5	2.0%	0	0	0	3	0	1
Justin Ford	DB	6'1, 204	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	10	12.5	1.7%	2	0	0	2	1	0
Josh Pettus	STUD				7	12.0	1.7%	2	0	0	1	0	0
Victor Osborne	DB	5'10, 182	Sr.	NR	13	5.5	0.8%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Isaiah Gourdine	DB	6'2, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	10	3.5	0.5%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Alphonso Mack	DB	6'0, 170	So.	NR	9	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	1	0	0
James Sanford	DB	6'1, 186	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Omar Pierre-Louis	DB	6'1, 188	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Nilijah Ballew	DB	6'2, 196	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Jack Walz III	DB	6'0, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Nick Johnson	DB	6'2, 183	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Trevahn Beery	DB	6'1, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. Missing Booboo

Jerry Gates was a mid-two-star recruit with offers only from MAC squads. His stature was an unassuming 5'11, 190 pounds coming out of high school, and from a recruiting standpoint there was really no reason to take notice of him.

Gates was also a complete stud of an athlete, perhaps BGSU's best play-maker both near the line of scrimmage and far away from it. And though the Falcons used him judiciously in this role, he was a phenomenal (and at 220 pounds, big) return man, as well. When BGSU needed a boost against Pittsburgh, he was sent back to return a kickoff and took it back for a touchdown. He was versatile and fantasic. He's proof that recruiting is a hilariously inexact science.

The secondary still returns Ryland Ward, Brian Sutton, and another versatile safety in Jude Adjei-Barimah; plus, the Falcons get Darrell Hunter II back from injury. Still, the athleticism of the group will suffer without Booboo.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Brian Schmiedebusch			49	41.3	6	10	21	63.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Anthony Farinella	6'3, 195	Jr.	93	60.8	29	1	31.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Tyler Tate	5'11, 173	Jr.	59-61	12-14	85.7%	6-8	75.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Ronnie Moore	KR	5'9, 164	So.	14	20.6	0
Booboo Gates	KR			10	30.6	1
Ryan Burbrink	PR	5'8, 188	Jr.	12	8.6	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	9
Field Goal Efficiency	42
Punt Return Efficiency	13
Kick Return Efficiency	61
Punt Efficiency	10
Kickoff Efficiency	72
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	11

9. Missing Schmiedebusch

As good as Gates was, Brian Schmiedebusch may have had an even bigger impact on BGSU's 2013 title run. Bowling Green was devastating from a field position standpoint, and while Schmiedebusch averaged only 41.3 yards per kick (healthy but not amazing), 21 of his 49 punts were stopped inside the 20. He was great with the pitching wedge, and he was a major reason why Bowling Green was so good on special teams. The place-kicking and return games should still be solid, but punting is now a question mark.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
28-Aug	at Western Kentucky	91
6-Sep	VMI	NR
13-Sep	Indiana	50
20-Sep	at Wisconsin	19
27-Sep	at Massachusetts	123
4-Oct	Buffalo	107
11-Oct	at Ohio	108
18-Oct	Western Michigan	113
4-Nov	at Akron	118
12-Nov	Kent State	102
19-Nov	at Toledo	53
28-Nov	Ball State	81

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-5.8% (76)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	92
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	10 / 2.9
TO Luck/Game	+2.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (7, 5)

10. A perfect mid-major schedule

Home game against a major-conference team? Check. Road opportunity against a power program? Check. A chance to both play some shaky teams and secure an early division lead? Check. This is a great slate for Bowling Green; the one less-than-likeable part is that two of probably the three biggest division threats -- Ohio and Akron -- get to play host to the Falcons in October.

It does appear that Bowling Green has the most pieces in the MAC East. We don't know about the run defense, and we don't know whether Matt Johnson's Hero Ball tendencies will mesh perfectly with such an up-tempo, efficiency-based attack. The Falcons aren't a slam dunk, but they're most likely the best team in the East, and with the West's heavyweights all breaking in new quarterbacks, BGSU might be the MAC favorite once again.