The big 2014 Toledo football preview: Do you prefer depth or star power?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Depending on how you tilt your head ...

... Toledo has either stabilized or slipped in the last two years.

When Tim Beckman took over in Toledo in 2009, one of the MAC's most consistently successful programs had hit a bit of a lull. The Rockets had gone 45-18 in the first five years of the Tom Amstutz era (Amstutz succeeded Gary Pinkel in 2001), but they slipped dramatically thereafter, going 5-7, 5-7, and 3-9. It was their first three-year streak of losing seasons since 1976-78.

Beckman recruited well and installed an exciting offense, and Toledo improved in all three years: 5-7 and 95th in the F/+ rankings in 2009, then 8-5 and 90th in 2010, then 9-4 and 38th in 2011. The '11 Rockets were an awesome team, suffering losses only to Ohio State (by five in Columbus), Boise State, Syracuse (via controversy), and Northern Illinois (via MACtion). They were basically 10 points and an awful call away from the MAC title game and a potential 13-1 season.

Beckman left for Illinois in 2012, and Toledo replaced him with offensive wunderkind Matt Campbell. Campbell was Mount Union's offensive coordinator at 25 and Beckman's OC at 29, and he coached his first game as head man two months before his 33rd birthday.

And depending on your point of view, he has either successfully stabilized the program, or he has overseen a drop-off. Toledo is 16-9 in his two years; the Rockets ranked 54th in 2012 and 62nd in 2013. These are the second- and third-best marks for the school in the last eight seasons, but they're both worse than 2011.

No matter how you choose to spin it, recruiting has still gone pretty well, and Toledo returns a huge portion of last year's two-deep. Toledo isn't likely to drop from the top half of the MAC any time soon.

2. A test of depth

Once again, it's a matter of spin. Taken as a whole, Toledo returns a ton from its 2013 squad. The Rockets return backs who combined for 1,500 rushing yards, wideouts who combined for 1,200 receiving yards, five offensive linemen with starting experience (from an awesome line, by the way), seven front-seven defenders who logged at least five tackles for loss in 2013, 10 of the top 11 in the secondary, and an outstanding place-kicker. That's great!

The Rockets must also replace longtime starting quarterback Terrance Owens, leading rusher David Fluellen, leading receiver Bernard Reedy (also a stellar return man), three-year starting center Zac Kerin, its top two defensive ends, its strong safety, and a strong punter. That's scary!

I tend to favor depth over star power, and I think this team should benefit from the wealth of experienced options in nearly every unit. But when you lose almost every known star, you are never fully assured of replacing them properly.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-5 | Adj. Record: 8-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 62
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at Florida	48	6-24	L	11.7 - 40.5	L
7-Sep	at Missouri	14	23-38	L	36.0 - 25.8	W
14-Sep	Eastern Washington	N/A	33-21	W	29.0 - 28.5	W
21-Sep	at Central Michigan	111	38-17	W	31.4 - 35.2	L
28-Sep	at Ball State	57	24-31	L	30.7 - 28.0	W	-3.8
5-Oct	Western Michigan	117	47-20	W	36.7 - 30.5	W	3.2
19-Oct	Navy	58	45-44	W	34.7 - 24.2	W	3.2
26-Oct	at Bowling Green	47	28-25	W	40.3 - 22.2	W	6.8
2-Nov	Eastern Michigan	124	55-16	W	38.7 - 29.8	W	9.3
12-Nov	Buffalo	80	51-41	W	46.3 - 38.4	W	10.3
20-Nov	Northern Illinois	60	17-35	L	32.4 - 34.2	L	8.7
29-Nov	at Akron	108	29-31	L	29.3 - 32.7	L	5.9

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+2.6%	52	-6.5%	89	+3.7%	6
Points Per Game	33.0	39	28.6	74
Adj. Points Per Game	33.1	34	30.8	91

3. A surge and a fade

Because of the final chapter, the book on 2013 Toledo is one of relative disappointment. A 7-3 start, with trip-ups only at Ball State and in two SEC road games, was encouraging, and the Rockets won five games in a row to move to the precipice of a MAC title breakthrough. As (mostly) consistent as the Rockets have been through the years, they haven't won the MAC since 2004, and it looked like 2013 could be the year. But on a Wednesday Night MACtion battle at home, they faded late against a smoking hot Northern Illinois team. The next week, they suffered a bit of a hangover in losing to upstart Akron.

Because of the poor finish, Toledo missed a bowl for the first time in four years and put a damper on what had been a strong run.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 6 games): Opponent 31.4, Toledo 29.3 (minus-2.1)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Toledo 40.0, Opponent 28.7 (plus-11.3)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 2 games): Opponent 33.5, Toledo 30.9 (minus-2.6)

After playing average ball through mid-October, the Rockets had found a new level of offense down the stretch. They won at eventual MAC champion Bowling Green and averaged nearly eight yards per play against a decent Buffalo defense. They even led Northern Illinois midway through the third quarter. But the last 5.5 quarters of the season were unkind.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.08	96	IsoPPP+	97.5	78
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	49.0%	15	Succ. Rt. +	107.0	37
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.7	26	Def. FP+	103.4	21
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	48	Redzone S&P+	102.9	49
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	14.7		ACTUAL	16	+1.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	39	42	37	50
RUSHING	14	25	32	34
PASSING	88	56	49	75
Standard Downs		50	37	80
Passing Downs		31	48	41

Q1 Rk	36	1st Down Rk	68
Q2 Rk	67	2nd Down Rk	13
Q3 Rk	53	3rd Down Rk	89
Q4 Rk	33

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Terrance Owens				191	318	2230	18	9	60.1%	5	1.5%	6.8
Logan Woodside	6'2, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)	21	41	240	1	0	51.2%	0	0.0%	5.9
Michael Julian	6'5, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Phillip Ely	6'1, 198	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)

4. No guarantees behind center

Terrance Owens didn't have the greatest senior season. His per-pass-attempt average fell from 7.1 to 6.8. His rush attempts were cut in half and were quite a bit less effective. He threw four interceptions in early losses to Florida and Missouri, and he was injured against Eastern Washington. And he threw another three interceptions in the late losses to NIU and Akron.

This wasn't the greatest way to go out, but Owens was still a stellar starter for portions of the last four seasons. He took down Austin Dantin after a multi-year platoon to win the starting job outright, and it of course bears mentioning that Toledo won 33 games in his time.

Stars leave, however, and while Owens' production was in no way irreplaceable, you still have to find a capable replacement. Logan Woodside filled in reasonably well for Owens against EWU, and Michael Julian was a high-two-star recruit in high school. Alabama transfer Phillip Ely is also eligible after sitting out the 2013 season. Toledo didn't sign a signal-caller in its 2014 recruiting class, so these three and walk-on Ryan Casey are the only quarterbacks on the roster.

This might be just fine, but the margin for error is small, and if there's an injury, things get pretty dicey pretty quickly.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
David Fluellen	RB				166	1114	10	6.7	5.9	46.4%
Kareem Hunt	RB	5'11, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	137	866	6	6.3	5.0	48.2%
Terrance Owens	QB				43	197	2	4.6	3.6	48.8%
Marc Remy	RB	6'0, 186	So.	2 stars (5.3)	38	196	2	5.2	3.4	42.1%
Damion Jones-Moore	RB	5'7, 180	So.	2 stars (5.3)	37	267	5	7.2	7.5	43.2%
Cassius McDowell	RB	5'9, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	17	137	0	8.1	6.3	58.8%
Ricky Pringle	RB	5'10, 205	Sr.	NR	11	101	1	9.2	11.0	45.5%
Logan Woodside	QB	6'2, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)	6	16	0	2.7	2.2	16.7%
Bernard Reedy	WR				5	15	0	3.0	1.1	40.0%
Brandon Neverdon	RB	5'8, 170	So.	NR
Terry Swanson	RB	5'9, 183	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Bernard Reedy	WR				99	62	840	62.6%	29.7%	62.6%	8.5	79	8.1	120.6
Alonzo Russell	WR	6'4, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	90	59	728	65.6%	27.0%	66.2%	8.1	20	8.2	104.5
David Fluellen	RB				32	27	222	84.4%	9.6%	51.6%	6.9	-66	7.0	31.9
Dwight Macon	WR	6'0, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	32	18	214	56.3%	9.6%	69.0%	6.7	-20	7.0	30.7
Justin Olack	WR	6'4, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	32	16	205	50.0%	9.6%	65.4%	6.4	-17	3.3	29.4
Kareem Hunt	RB	5'11, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	18	12	68	66.7%	5.4%	58.8%	3.8	-75	3.8	9.8
Alex Zmolik	TE	6'5, 230	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	10	6	84	60.0%	3.0%	66.7%	8.4	9	6.0	12.1
D.J. Larkins	WR	5'11, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	5	2	8	40.0%	1.5%	N/A	1.6	-24	0.0	1.1
Damion Jones-Moore	RB	5'7, 180	So.	2 stars (5.3)	5	4	57	80.0%	1.5%	0.0%	11.4	13	1.3	8.2
Zac Rosenbauer	TE	6'2, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	4	2	14	50.0%	1.2%	100.0%	3.5	-14	3.6	2.0
Zach Rogers	WR	6'2, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	2	1	10	50.0%	0.6%	N/A	5.0	-4	0.0	1.4
Rodney Adams	WR	6'1, 176	So.	3 stars (5.7)	2	2	15	100.0%	0.6%	100.0%	7.5	-5	2.8	2.2
Brian Blackburn	TE	6'6, 225	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Zach Yousey	WR	6'1, 195	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Darryl Richards	WR	6'3, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Mykale Rogers	WR	6'1, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Davi'on Riley	TE	6'3, 207	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Marcus Whitfield	WR	5'11, 165	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Andrew Davis	WR	6'4, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jon'Vea Johnson	WR	5'11, 183	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. Just a few more big plays

The quarterback situation is at least a little bit uncertain, but we know that whoever wins the job will have some exciting options at the skill positions. David Fluellen and Bernard Reedy are indeed gone, but basically everybody else returns, including a trio of exciting sophomore running backs (particularly super-efficient Kareem Hunt), big possession receiver Alonzo Russell, and a number of former three-star recruits. Toledo has recruited well here (no surprise, given the general effectiveness and draw of the offense), and even if there's a minor step backwards in 2015, the Rockets are set up well here for years to come.

The one thing Toledo needs a bit more of, however, is big plays. The Rockets were both efficient (37th in Success Rate+) and good at catching up when they fell behind schedule (31st in Passing Downs S&P+), but their big-play ability was marginal (78th in IsoPPP+, which measures the magnitude of the successful plays). Hunt and Russell are more efficient than explosive, so it will be interesting to see if (and if so, with whom) Toledo is able to improve in this regard. Signs point to no.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	113	3.52	4.59	46.0%	74.4%	13.4%	277.2	1.5%	2.5%
Rank	18	8	1	10	28	6	4	4	6

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Zac Kerin	C				38	2nd All-MAC
Greg Mancz	RG	6'5, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	38	2nd All-MAC
Josh Hendershot	LT	6'4, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	25
Jeff Myers	LG	6'3, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	25
Chase Nelson	RT	6'8, 335	Sr.	NR	9
Robert Lisowski	C	6'4, 292	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	3
Elijah Nkansah	LT	6'6, 310	So.	2 stars (5.4)
James Henry	LG	6'8, 255	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Raymond Marlow	OL	6'7, 323	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Paul Perschon	OL	6'6, 310	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Storm Norton	OL	6'8, 310	So.	2 stars (5.4)
A.J. Bolden	OL	6'4, 287	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Nate Jeppesen	OL	6'4, 285	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)

6. The line should be awesome

One thing we know: the line shouldn't be a problem. Toledo was one of only six teams to place in the top 20 of both Adj. Line Yards and Adj. Sack Rates; obviously both of these measures evaluate more than simply line play, but when you rank highly in both, that's a good sign that either your line is great or your scheme and tactics are solid. Or both.

Zac Kerin is gone, but another three-year starter (and all-conference performer) returns in guard Greg Mancz. Toledo returns 100 career starts overall on the offensive line and will start 2014 with one of the most experienced units in the country. Depth might be a concern -- after the top five, it's nothing but sophomores and redshirt freshmen -- but the starters, all seniors, are outstanding.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.03	11	IsoPPP+	107.8	28
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	47.2%	104	Succ. Rt. +	92.0	92
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.1	25	Off. FP+	102.5	32
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	106	Redzone S&P+	87.6	95
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.7		ACTUAL	20.0	+2.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	88	74	92	94
RUSHING	74	69	92	67
PASSING	94	74	84	115
Standard Downs		86	94	49
Passing Downs		54	86	12

Q1 Rk	81	1st Down Rk	88
Q2 Rk	76	2nd Down Rk	80
Q3 Rk	78	3rd Down Rk	101
Q4 Rk	113

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98	3.28	3.43	41.8%	65.3%	16.5%	171.9	8.2%	13.0%
Rank	72	102	77	94	54	95	1	3	1

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jayrone Elliott	DE				12	56.5	8.2%	14.0	9.0	0	2	5	1
Christian Smith	DE				12	31.5	4.6%	4.0	2.0	0	0	3	0
Treyvon Hester	NT	6'3, 290	So.	3 stars (5.7)	12	27.5	4.0%	7.5	3.5	0	1	0	0
Elijah Jones (2012)	NT	6'2, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	23.5	3.2%	7.5	1.5	1	0	2	0
Allen Covington	DE	6'2, 272	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	17.0	2.5%	5.5	4.5	0	1	0	0
Marquise Moore	DT	6'1, 289	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	16.5	2.4%	5.0	2.0	0	0	0	1
Orion Jones	DL	6'2, 270	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	10	12.5	1.8%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chris Collins	NT	6'4, 270	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	10.5	1.5%	3.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
John Stepec	DE	6'3, 245	So.	2 stars (5.4)	6	8.0	1.2%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Robert Zimmerman	DT	6'3, 340	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	3	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Phillip Martin	DT	6'4, 275	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Daniel Davis	DE	6'3, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Victor Cave	DE	6'2, 235	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Adam Kulon	DE	6'4, 250	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Tre James	DE	6'0, 250	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. Aggressive and conservative?

Toledo had the No. 1 pass rush in the country according to Adj. Sack Rate. The Rockets recorded 36 sacks overall and had at least two in 11 of 12 games. They brought Missouri quarterbacks down four times, then recorded 12 sacks against Navy and Bowling Green. They attacked from all sorts of directions -- two ends had at least 4.5 sacks, two tackles had at least 2.0, and two linebackers had at least 4.0 -- and their success in this regard gave the defense an exciting identity.

It also made them a bit bipolar. Against the pass, Toledo was all-or-nothing, logging tons of sacks and giving up far too many big plays. Against the run, the Rockets bent a decent amount but cleaned up messes and almost completely minimized big plays.

Despite the great sack rates, Toledo fit a bend-don't-break profile on passing downs (poor success rates, minimal big plays). This is a combination you don't see very often, and I'm not sure what it says about defensive coordinator Tom Matukewicz's overall intentions. Does he want to play a bend-don't-break zone, and he just happened to have some great pass rushers last year? Does he want to attack, attack, attack, but his secondary wasn't talented enough to be aggressive?

With the loss of ends Jayrone Elliott and Christian Smith and the return of virtually everybody in the secondary, we might start to get an answer.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Junior Sylvestre	WILL	6'0, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	91.0	13.2%	9.5	5.0	1	2	3	2
Chase Murdock	MIKE	6'0, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	79.0	11.4%	9.0	4.0	1	2	1	0
Trent Voss	STAR	6'3, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	7	46.5	6.7%	5.5	1.0	0	0	2	1
Ray Bush	MIKE	6'3, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	27.0	3.9%	2.5	1.0	1	0	0	0
Vladimir Emilien	STAR				10	10.5	1.5%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Ethan Kagy	STAR				10	9.0	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Drake Fletcher	LB	6'0, 230	Sr.	NR	10	4.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Jaylen Coleman	WILL	6'0, 225	So.	3 stars (5.6)	4	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jesse Curry	LB	5'10, 200	So.	NR	3	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Josh High	LB	6'0, 222	So.	NR
Zach Quinn	LB	6'3, 215	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Anthony Davis	LB	6'0, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cheatham Norrils	CB	6'0, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	42.0	6.1%	1.5	1	1	2	2	0
Chaz Whittaker	FS	6'2, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	38.0	5.5%	0	0	2	2	0	0
Cameron Cole	CB	6'0, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	35.5	5.1%	0	0	0	3	1	0
Ross Madison	SS				10	33.0	4.8%	2	0	1	0	1	0
Jordan Martin	CB	6'2, 192	So.	2 stars (5.2)	11	22.0	3.2%	0	0	1	2	1	0
DeJuan Rogers	SS	6'1, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	19.5	2.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Dukes	CB	5'9, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	10.0	1.4%	0	0	0	2	0	0
D.J. Larkins	FS	5'11, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Juwan Haynes	FS	6'0, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	7	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Haden	SS	5'11, 200	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	6	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Delando Johnson	DB	6'2, 195	So.	3 stars (5.7)	4	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Travis Nees	S	5'11, 195	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Kennedy Frazier	DB	6'1, 174	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Dedric Brinson	CB	6'2, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. Wanted: A few more plays (or players) in the secondary

Either by design or talent level, Toledo's secondary was terribly passive in 2013. The Rockets defensed (intercepted or broke up) just 27 passes in 2013, tied for the worst in the country with Eastern Michigan and Army. And 12 of the 27 came from members of the front seven. The secondary defensed just 15 passes, far too low considering the strength of the pass rush (and the harried nature of opposing quarterbacks).

Three of four starters return, as does the entire second and third string. There are quite a few former star recruits here (five former three- or four-star recruits are listed above, plus five high-two-stars), and while injuries and youth did play small roles in the secondary's struggles, this unit simply needs to produce more. At the very least, experience certainly won't be an excuse in 2014.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Vince Penza			43	41.0	2	12	23	81.4%
Jeremiah Detmer	5'8, 170	Sr.	4	31.0	0	0	1	25.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jeremiah Detmer	5'8, 170	Sr.	76	62.3	38	3	50.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jeremiah Detmer	5'8, 170	Sr.	44-45	13-14	92.9%	6-6	100.0%
Clay Simpkins	5'10, 165	Sr.	1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Bernard Reedy	KR			31	22.3	0
D.J. Larkins	KR	5'11, 190	So.	4	8.3	0
Bernard Reedy	PR			9	8.6	0
Corey Jones	PR	5'8, 165	So.	2	1.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	6
Field Goal Efficiency	2
Punt Return Efficiency	35
Kick Return Efficiency	27
Punt Efficiency	42
Kickoff Efficiency	54
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	17

9. Deadly Detmer

Jeremiah Detmer entered the Eastern Washington game with a streak of 22 straight made field goals. He missed a 35-yarder against EWU (which left him six short of the longest streak in FBS history), then didn't miss again. He assures that Toledo gets points out of almost any scoring opportunity, and he's a weapon on kickoffs, too, booting half of his 76 kickoffs for touchbacks. He's the leader of what should still be a decent special teams unit; the loss of Bernard Reedy is challenging, but Detmer alone makes the Rockets viable here.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	New Hampshire	NR
6-Sep	Missouri	31
13-Sep	at Cincinnati	54
20-Sep	Ball State	81
27-Sep	Central Michigan	106
4-Oct	at Western Michigan	113
11-Oct	at Iowa State	71
25-Oct	Massachusetts	123
4-Nov	at Kent State	102
11-Nov	at Northern Illinois	51
19-Nov	Bowling Green	60
28-Nov	at Eastern Michigan	122

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-3.0% (65)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	80
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	4 / 3.0
TO Luck/Game	+0.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	16 (7, 9)

10. Are you an optimist or pessimist?

An optimist sees perhaps the best mid-major offensive line in the country, three exciting, young running backs, a wealth of former star recruits at receiver and defensive back, an automatic place-kicker, and the makings of another strong pass rush.

A pessimist sees potential depth issues at quarterback, a lack of guaranteed star power in the skill positions, a pass rush that lost its best pass rusher, and a feckless secondary.

What do I see? A team with a large potential variance in outcomes. I lean more toward optimism here, and I will absolutely have Toledo in the MAC's crowded top tier when I rank teams on Friday. But I do worry a bit about the things on the pessimist's list, and I don't know if the Rockets are as much of a sure thing as Bowling Green and (perhaps) Ball State.

In all, this program is as well built for the long-term as any in the MAC. The coach is young and exciting (and hasn't proven enough to generate a ton of major-conference interest yet), the recruiting has been as steady and strong as anybody's in the conference (whereas WMU just signed the best recruiting class in MAC history, Toledo has found consistent success and still has the overall advantage in this category), and the tactics are strong, at least on offense.

There's a lot to like here, but I'm not sure this is the year the decade-long run without a conference title ends.