The big 2014 Northern Illinois football preview: One giant, obvious question mark

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1. Stars leave

It is a fact of life in college football and, to a less rigidly scheduled degree, every other sport. As good as your favorite players are, they eventually run out of eligibility.

In two years as Northern Illinois' starting quarterback, Jordan Lynch helped the Huskies win 24 games, passed for 6,000 yards, rushed for 3,700, scored 24 touchdowns, passed for 49 more, lost a single MAC game, led NIU to the Orange Bowl, and ended up a Heisman finalist. These are not things that are supposed to happen. Lynch was one of the most effective rushing quarterbacks in college football's history and packed four years' worth of stats into two years.

Now Lynch is gone. He leaves behind a team that is experienced in most units, and from a recruiting standpoint, the freshmen and redshirt freshmen entering the mix were more highly touted than the ones leaving. NIU's program is just about as healthy as a MAC program can be, but the Huskies now have to replace an irreplaceable quarterback. We'll see how that goes.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 12-2 | Adj. Record: 10-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 60
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at Iowa	29	30-27	W	32.7 - 30.4	W
14-Sep	at Idaho	116	45-35	W	24.5 - 35.8	L
21-Sep	Eastern Illinois	N/A	43-39	W	33.1 - 45.6	L
28-Sep	at Purdue	114	55-24	W	33.1 - 41.3	L
5-Oct	at Kent State	106	38-24	W	37.6 - 28.3	W	-4.1
12-Oct	Akron	108	27-20	W	21.8 - 20.4	W	-4.3
19-Oct	at Central Michigan	111	38-17	W	39.8 - 29.3	W	0.1
26-Oct	Eastern Michigan	124	59-20	W	39.7 - 26.1	W	5.3
2-Nov	at Massachusetts	118	63-19	W	46.4 - 32.8	W	9.7
13-Nov	Ball State	57	48-27	W	47.6 - 28.4	W	11.7
20-Nov	at Toledo	62	35-17	W	42.3 - 26.1	W	14.6
26-Nov	Western Michigan	117	33-14	W	32.3 - 28.2	W	13.3
6-Dec	vs. Bowling Green	47	27-47	L	37.8 - 39.5	L	10.3
26-Dec	vs. Utah State	32	14-21	L	31.4 - 19.6	W	9.9

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+4.2%	45	-2.0%	74	-1.1%	90
Points Per Game	39.6	11	25.1	53
Adj. Points Per Game	35.7	19	30.8	92

2. Slow start

Despite solid experience, NIU's 2013 team simply wasn't quite as good as the 2012 Huskies. The speed-over-size defense got pushed around a bit more and spent far less time in opposing backfields. But after a slow start, this was still an awesome team over the last half of the regular season.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 6 games): Opponent 33.6, NIU 30.5 (minus-3.1)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 6 games): NIU 41.4, Opponent 28.5 (plus-12.9)

Early near-misses against Idaho and Eastern Illinois led to an air of vulnerability despite an impressive win at Iowa and a blowout of hapless Purdue.

But beginning in mid-October, as conference rivals began to think they might have a shot at ending NIU's long conference win streak, the Huskies laid the hammer down. Their back-to-back wins over Ball State and Toledo, by a combined margin of 39 points, were fantastic. They absorbed some shots from both teams, then pulled away with no mercy in the second halves. They averaged more than 7.3 yards per play in both games (after averaging more than 9.0 against EMU and UMass); they averaged 7.8 yards per play and allowed 5.0 in Games No. 7-12. They completely dominated.

And then they ran into a buzzsaw in the MAC title game, which completely changed the tenor of the season as a whole (and set the table for two fun BCS bowl upsets: UCF over Baylor and Oklahoma over Alabama).

After winning 24 of 26 games, Jordan Lynch finished his career with two losses.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.17	51	IsoPPP+	103.8	41
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	49.5%	11	Succ. Rt. +	105.2	45
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.7	45	Def. FP+	101.4	41
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	34	Redzone S&P+	115.2	18
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.0		ACTUAL	17	+1.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	5	31	46	24
RUSHING	7	19	47	13
PASSING	76	51	45	61
Standard Downs		40	60	32
Passing Downs		34	38	69

Q1 Rk	41	1st Down Rk	27
Q2 Rk	34	2nd Down Rk	35
Q3 Rk	71	3rd Down Rk	64
Q4 Rk	18

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Jordan Lynch				253	404	2892	24	8	62.6%	10	2.4%	6.8
Drew Hare	6'1, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	5	9	153	2	0	55.6%	0	0.0%	17.0
Matt McIntosh	6'1, 197	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	2	2	54	2	0	100.0%	0	0.0%	27.0
Anthony Maddie	6'1, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Landon Root	6'3, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

3. There was no way NIU could replace Chandler Harnish

Jordan Lynch was an all-time stat collector. Not too long ago, a 2,000/1,000 season (2,000 passing yards, 1,000 rushing yards) was a rather remarkable accomplishment. Lynch averaged 3,000/1,850.

From a pure stat perspective, there's almost no way for a quarterback to top what Lynch accomplished. For NIU to succeed at a high level moving forward -- and to be sure, NIU could very well do that -- skill-position players are going to play more of a role, and the defense will need to raise its game. The quarterback position isn't going to produce what it has in the last couple of years.

That said, it does bear mentioning that we were saying things quite similar to this two years ago when Chandler Harnish's NIU career ended. Lynch's predecessor averaged 2,800 passing yards and 1,100 rushing yards over his last two seasons; those are dynamite numbers, and Lynch blew them out of the water. It's never a guarantee that the new guy will be worse than the last guy.

And hey, NIU backups Drew Hare and Matt McIntosh did average 18.8 yards per pass attempt and 10.2 yards per carry last year. Projected to match Lynch's attempts, that's 7,500 passing yards and 2,800 rushing yards! Because that's how projections work, right?

Hare, McIntosh, Anthony Maddie and incoming three-star signee Landon Root should assure that NIU puts a quality quarterback on the field, even if the winner of the job doesn't approach either Lynch's numbers or 7,500/2,800. And if the quarterback's decent, the rest of the offense should be excellent.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Jordan Lynch	QB				282	1980	23	7.0	6.2	49.6%
Cameron Stingily	RB	6'1, 244	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	203	1119	9	5.5	3.7	48.3%
Akeem Daniels (2012)	RB	5'7, 184	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	68	447	9	6.6	4.5	N/A
Tommylee Lewis	WR	5'7, 155	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	30	356	1	11.9	9.9	66.7%
James Spencer	RB				29	173	3	6.0	5.4	41.4%
Joel Bouagnon	RB	6'2, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	22	86	0	3.9	0.9	36.4%
Keith Harris, Jr.	RB	5'8, 181	Jr.	NR	21	143	2	6.8	6.2	42.9%
Draco Smith	RB	5'9, 185	So.	2 stars (5.3)	13	96	0	7.4	9.2	38.5%
Aregeros Turner	WR	5'11, 170	So.	3 stars (5.7)	8	23	0	2.9	4.3	50.0%
Matt McIntosh	QB	6'1, 197	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	6	44	0	7.3	2.1	83.3%
Drew Hare	QB	6'1, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	5	68	1	13.6	11.0	80.0%
Jordan Huff	RB	5'11, 205	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Tommylee Lewis	WR	5'7, 155	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	109	86	715	78.9%	27.5%	72.1%	6.6	-230	6.1	82.1
Da'Ron Brown	WR	6'0, 194	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	92	46	752	50.0%	23.2%	56.3%	8.2	114	8.3	86.3
Juwan Brescacin	WR	6'4, 219	Jr.	NR	59	33	499	55.9%	14.9%	51.9%	8.5	69	9.3	57.3
James Spencer	RB				18	14	167	77.8%	4.5%	53.3%	9.3	12	9.0	19.2
Luke Eakes	TE	6'3, 250	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	15	12	113	80.0%	3.8%	60.0%	7.5	-18	7.8	13.0
Angelo Sebastiano	WR				13	6	83	46.2%	3.3%	38.5%	6.4	-4	6.1	9.5
Desroy Maxwell	TE	6'2, 245	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	11	113	84.6%	3.3%	61.5%	8.7	-4	8.7	13.0
Aregeros Turner	WR	5'11, 170	So.	3 stars (5.7)	11	8	70	72.7%	2.8%	45.5%	6.4	-21	6.3	8.0
Tim Semisch	TE	6'8, 266	Sr.	NR	11	7	84	63.6%	2.8%	66.7%	7.6	-1	5.1	9.6
Matt Williams	WR				10	6	109	60.0%	2.5%	42.9%	10.9	34	8.6	12.5
Cameron Stingily	RB	6'1, 244	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	9	7	44	77.8%	2.3%	71.4%	4.9	-33	5.2	5.1
Keith Harris, Jr.	RB	5'8, 181	Jr.	NR	9	7	95	77.8%	2.3%	62.5%	10.6	18	13.6	10.9
Jacob Brinlee	WR	5'9, 185	Jr.	NR	8	6	76	75.0%	2.0%	71.4%	9.5	9	8.0	8.7
Chad Beebe	WR	5'9, 165	So.	2 stars (5.3)	7	2	101	28.6%	1.8%	N/A	14.4	61	0.0	11.6
Blake Holder	WR	6'2, 195	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
Shane Wimann	TE	6'4, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Malik Mitchell	WR	6'4, 181	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Kenny Golladay (North Dakota)	WR	6'4, 195	Jr.	NR
Christian Blake	WR	6'1, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
David Senior	WR	5'10, 160	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Dale Brown	TE	6'5, 245	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Ezra Saffold	WR	5'7, 160	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)

4. Is there such a thing as too much skill position depth?

You look at what NIU returns at running back and receiver and you wonder if the Huskies have spent too many scholarships on these particular areas. The Huskies are loaded with options here.

At running back, big Cameron Stingily returns; he wasn't explosive, but he was a nice bruiser to complement Lynch. He's joined by a pair of sophomores (Joe Bouganon, who didn't do much with 22 carries in 2013, and Draco Smith, who did a lot with 13) and an exciting junior (Keith Harris, Jr.). More importantly, however, he will also team up with senior Akeem Daniels.

Daniels was a revelation late in 2012; after a rather lackluster season, he rushed 29 times for 240 yards and five touchdowns against EMU in the season finale and Kent State in the MAC title game. He brought a speed aspect that NIU needed to keep attention off of Lynch, but he missed 2013 with recurring foot problems. From the Injuries Hurt in the Present but Help in the Future files, Daniels' absence allowed Stingily to emerge. Now, in Lynch's absence, NIU appears to have a thunder-and-lightning combination to unveil, at least as long as Daniels is healthy this time around.

NIU should have a nice running game, and at the very least it has options in every shape and size in the passing game. Return specialist Tommylee Lewis turned into a decent possession man in 2013, averaging a meager 8.3 yards per catch with a lovely 79 percent catch rate. Meanwhile, medium-sized Da'Ron Brown and big Juwan Brescacin each averaged at least 15 yards per catch (with sketchy catch rates). Tight ends Luke Eakes and Desroy Maxwell might be in position to play larger roles in 2014, transfer Kenny Golladay caught 43 passes for North Dakota in 12 games, and big things still might be in the cards for one-time star recruit Aregeros Turner.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	117.4	3.76	4.18	49.3%	73.0%	12.6%	282.4	2.9%	0.7%
Rank	9	3	5	3	39	4	3	23	1

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Tyler Loos	RT	6'5, 282	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	19	1st All-MAC
Jared Volk	LG				29	2nd All-MAC
Andrew Ness	C	6'3, 286	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	28
Aidan Conlon	RG	6'3, 287	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	28
Ryan Brown	LT	6'6, 283	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	27
Matt Krempel	RT				11
Tyler Pitt	RG	6'5, 292	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	1
Levon Myers	LT	6'5, 267	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Matt Battaglia	LG				0
Michael Gegner	C	6'3, 283	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Josh Ruka	RT	6'5, 295	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Scott Taylor	OL	6'2, 295	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Shane Evans	OL	6'4, 295	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Max Scharping	OL	6'6, 250	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. Ninth and third

In my Toledo preview, I mentioned that the Rockets were one of only six teams to rank in the top 20 of both Adj. Line Yards and Adj. Sack Rates. Well, only one team ranked in the top 10 of both categories: NIU.

Obviously there are some extenuating factors here -- Lynch's running ability would have made any line look pretty good, and the wealth of quick passes to Tommylee Lewis certainly limited sack opportunities. But when the stats are this good, that probably means something.

NIU's new starting quarterback will not only have a few exciting backs and diverse options at receiver; he'll also have the MAC's best offensive line in front of him, one that welcomes back five players with starting experience (a whopping 103 career starts in all), three two-year starters, and an all-conference tackle in Tyler Loos.

The scheme's good, the skill help is solid, the line is great ... there are worse situations for a new starting quarterback to inherit.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.09	42	IsoPPP+	96.0	89
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.6%	82	Succ. Rt. +	87.5	105
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.4	39	Off. FP+	102.5	32
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	39	Redzone S&P+	87.6	94
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	29.0		ACTUAL	30.0	+1.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	79	106	105	116
RUSHING	49	93	106	86
PASSING	107	110	97	120
Standard Downs		112	112	110
Passing Downs		61	69	35

Q1 Rk	117	1st Down Rk	118
Q2 Rk	106	2nd Down Rk	65
Q3 Rk	75	3rd Down Rk	72
Q4 Rk	92

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	85.8	3.29	3.36	38.4%	70.9%	12.8%	109.4	5.9%	5.8%
Rank	118	103	71	54	87	125	44	30	88

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ken Bishop	DT				14	53.0	6.5%	7.0	1.5	2	1	0	0
George Rainey	DE				14	37.5	4.6%	10.0	4.0	0	4	1	0
Joe Windsor	DE				14	30.0	3.7%	8.0	4.5	1	1	1	0
Jason Meehan	DE	6'1, 241	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	23.5	2.9%	7.0	6.5	0	1	0	0
Anthony Wells	NG				11	22.5	2.7%	2.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Perez Ford	DE	6'0, 218	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	19.5	2.4%	9.0	4.5	0	0	1	0
Stephen O'Neal	DE				12	16.5	2.0%	3.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Donovan Gordon	NG	6'0, 275	Sr.	NR	13	15.0	1.8%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mario Jones	DT	6'0, 275	So.	3 stars (5.5)	11	10.0	1.2%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Michael Ippolito	DT	6'3, 259	So.	3 stars (5.5)	11	6.0	0.7%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Austin Smaha	DE	6'1, 210	So.	2 stars (5.2)	12	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Corey Thomas	DT	6'2, 308	So.	2 stars (5.2)	1	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Zach Anderson	NG				3	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Matthew Baltimore	DE	6'3, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Ben Compton	DE	6'4, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Ruben Dunbar	DE	6'3, 260	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Herlandez Corley	DE	6'3, 240	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

6. Not a lot of time in the backfield

In 2012, NIU's pummeling offense had a perfect counterpart in a fast, aggressive defense. NIU's defensive line was one of the smallest and most active in the country, with seven players logging at least 6.5 tackles for loss and four sacking the quarterback at least four times.

Unfortunately, both starting ends (Alan Baxter and Sean Progar, who combined for 18 sacks) graduated. That seemed to gum up the works. In 2013, NIU still managed a decent sack rate (four more linemen had at least 4.0 sacks, though none had more than 6.5 this time around). Meanwhile, NIU ranked 125th, dead last, in Stuff Rate (run stops behind the line). When you're not making aggressive plays with a small defensive front, all you're left with is the "small" part. NIU got pushed around, and while the Huskies were able to swarm and limit big plays on the ground for the most part -- considering the help up front, NIU's linebackers were quite strong in this regard -- this inefficiency opened the door for some glitches in pass defense.

For better or worse, NIU's mostly starting over up front this time around. Pass rush specialists Jason Meehan and Perez Ford return, but NIU is completely starting over at defensive tackle. The Huskies might not be much worse up front, but they almost certainly won't be better.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jamaal Bass	OLB	5'10, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	14	67.5	8.2%	6.0	2.0	0	2	0	0
Boomer Mays	MLB	6'0, 230	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	14	64.0	7.8%	5.5	2.0	1	0	1	0
Michael Santacaterina	OLB	5'10, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	51.5	6.3%	2.0	1.0	0	5	0	0
Jamaal Payton	OLB	6'0, 210	So.	2 stars (5.2)	11	33.5	4.1%	3.0	1.0	0	3	1	0
Sean Folliard	MLB	6'2, 205	So.	2 stars (5.3)	11	15.0	1.8%	2.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
Cody Hazelett	OLB	6'2, 200	So.	2 stars (5.2)	10	11.0	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Rasheen Lemon	OLB				2	10.0	1.2%	1.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Ladell Fleming	OLB	6'0, 194	So.	2 stars (5.2)	9	6.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Bobby Jones IV	LB	6'0, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Martayveus Carter	LB	5'11, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Renard Cheren	LB	6'0, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jimmie Ward	SS				14	78.5	9.6%	2.5	1	7	10	1	0
Dechane Durante	FS	6'2, 196	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	44.5	5.4%	0	0	3	5	3	0
Paris Logan	CB	5'9, 179	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	14	38.0	4.6%	0	0	1	7	1	0
Dominique Ware	FS				14	35.0	4.3%	0	0	2	4	0	0
Jhony Faustin	CB				14	31.5	3.8%	0	0	1	5	0	0
Marlon Moore	CB	5'9, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	14	31.5	3.8%	0	0	1	11	0	0
Sean Evans	CB				7	16.0	1.9%	1.5	0	0	1	1	0
Nate McNeal	S				14	6.5	0.8%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Mycial Allen	SS	5'11, 183	So.	3 stars (5.6)	10	6.0	0.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Marckie Hayes	CB	5'8, 176	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)
Brandon Mayes	DB	5'11, 182	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Deion Hallmon	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Tifonte Hunt	DB	5'9, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Mayomi Olootu	DB	5'9, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. New leadership in the back

NIU's linebackers really were pretty strong, both in terms of cleaning up messes and in making a few plays along the way. All three starters return, as do all three primary backups. But between the rebuilding line and a similarly dissheveled secondary, the linebackers will likely have plenty of messes to clean up again this year.

Big plays were an issue for the NIU secondary in 2013, but at least the Huskies had safety Jimmie Ward in the back to make some plays of his own. He's gone, as are Dominique Ware and Jhony Faustin. NIU does get back a potential lockdown (when the lock works) corner in Marlon Ware, and Dechaen Durante was a big hitter at the free safety position, but there is no obvious, immediate replacement for Ward. If Moore and Paris Logan mature at corner, maybe that's not a problem. But it will probably be an issue at times.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tyler Wedel	5'11, 186	Sr.	50	40.4	1	28	14	84.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Tyler Wedel	5'11, 186	Sr.	101	59.8	32	6	31.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Mathew Sims			61-63	12-16	75.0%	5-13	38.5%
Tyler Wedel	5'11, 186	Sr.	8-8	2-2	100.0%	1-3	33.3%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Paris Logan	KR	5'9, 179	Jr.	20	24.1	0
Tommylee Lewis	KR	5'7, 155	Sr.	11	28.4	1
Angelo Sebastiano	PR			9	10.8	0
Tommylee Lewis	PR	5'7, 155	Sr.	6	3.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	90
Field Goal Efficiency	98
Punt Return Efficiency	83
Kick Return Efficiency	23
Punt Efficiency	98
Kickoff Efficiency	87
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	81

8. Legs need improvement

Because of the efficiency of the offense, NIU was a pretty decent field position team in 2013. But the Huskies could use a bit more help from special teams in that regard.

Tyler Wedel was a fair catch machine, but NIU was still only 98th in Brian Fremeau's Punt Efficiency ratings and 59th in Net Punting. Meanwhile, while kick returns were (and will be) a strength, punt returns were lacking.

Assuming the new quarterback isn't quite as proficient from an efficiency standpoint, a lot of other pieces will need to improve to make up the difference. That obviously includes kicks and returns.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
28-Aug	Presbyterian	NR
6-Sep	at Northwestern	49
13-Sep	at UNLV	109
20-Sep	at Arkansas	48
4-Oct	Kent State	102
11-Oct	Central Michigan	106
18-Oct	Miami (Ohio)	121
25-Oct	at Eastern Michigan	122
5-Nov	at Ball State	81
11-Nov	Toledo	53
18-Nov	at Ohio	108
28-Nov	at Western Michigan	113

Five-Year F/+ Rk	4.2% (49)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	98
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	13 / 12.9
TO Luck/Game	+0.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (9, 6)

9. All but one strength gets stronger

In 2014, it appears that a lot of NIU's strengths (skill position depth, offensive line play, linebackers) will get stronger while its weaknesses (activity on the defensive line, big plays in the secondary) get weaker. This could result in a lot of #MACtion-style shootouts, but that will indeed depend on the quarterback position. NIU looks good enough at the other 10 offensive positions that Lynch's absence might not be a killer. But until we see someone step up and play well, we don't know for sure that it will happen. And even if it does, that probably won't help a sketchy defense very much.

The schedule certainly helps. NIU plays eight teams projected 102nd or worse and hosts division rival Toledo. Despite the road trip to Ball State, that could give the Huskies a decent chance at their fifth consecutive MAC West title. If they indeed get to the title game, they probably won't be favorites this time around, but they'll have a chance. Considering the quality of the quarterback they just lost, that's pretty impressive.

10. MAC balance of power

At the end of each conference run-through, I take a look at how I perceive the conference's balance of power heading into the season. This is in no way based on schedules, so they are not predictions. They're just how I would rank the teams after writing 4,000 or so words about each of them.

Tier 1
Bowling Green
NIU
Ball State
Toledo

Bowling Green finished the season the strongest, returns a ton of talent, and brought in a coach who seems to fit the personnel. The defending champs begin the season still at the top of the heap, but the next three on the list aren't far away. Any of these four could win the MAC.

Tier 2
Ohio
Akron

I'm actually excited about where both of these teams will be in 2015, and either team is just one or two surprises from joining the top tier. But for now, I'm going to stick with the thought of them being a year away.

Tier 3
CMU
Buffalo

CMU is coming up because of experience, and Bufflao's moving down because of a lack thereof. Both of these moves could be temporary.

Tier 4
Kent State
WMU
EMU
Miami (Ohio)
UMass

There is more hope in the bottom tier than before; EMU, Miami and UMass welcome in new coaches (and their corresponding new optimism), Kent State has had a year to rebound from an inevitable fall, and WMU just signed an incredible recruiting class. There's a chance that the MAC is a bit deeper than it was last year, but the bottom teams are still going to be pretty bad.