The big 2014 Old Dominion football preview: Points in both directions

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. "Aim High"

There's obviously no guarantee that Old Dominion's move to FBS -- in its first complete, official season in 2014 -- will pay off in the long-term. There's no assurance that head coach Bobby Wilder's defense will ever get up to speed against FBS offenses. There's no certainty that the program, planted in the middle of Norfolk, Va., with minimal room for growth, will be able to accommodate the growing demands (financial and otherwise) of big-time (well, mid-major) football. Obviously.

But it's hard not to be intrigued.

In 2007, ODU hired Wilder to resurrect a football program that had been dormant -- in the literal sense, not the wasn't-very-good sense -- for nearly seven decades. In ODU's first two seasons (2009-10), the Monarchs went 17-5. In their next two seasons, they went 21-5 and twice reached the FCS playoffs. In their provisional FBS season last fall, they went 8-4.

There have been minimal growing pains, but no expansion-franchise struggles. In five years as a football program, ODU has gone 46-14. ODU survived the transition from gestation to FCS with no problem, and initial signs (competitive losses to ECU and Pitt, an easy win over Idaho) suggest that the transition from FCS to FBS might not be particularly painful either.

Wilder's slogan since he took the ODU job has been "Aim high." The Monarchs have certainly done just that. They moved to FBS, they're trying (trying) to get a 30,000-seat stadium built, and in a short amount of time they surpassed a number of well-established FCS programs. But with a full FBS and Conference USA ahead of them in 2014, everything now gets a lot more difficult.

2. This could be fun

You can't say ODU wasn't entertaining in 2013. The Monarchs did only go 1-4 against FBS competition, but ODU games featured a combined 76.3 points and 971.2 yards (614.6 passing) on average. ODU scored at least 38 points seven times and allowed at least 35 six times. The Monarchs allowed 99 points in two FBS games to start the season, scored 201 points in a three-week span against FCS teams, and allowed 80 points to North Carolina in the season finale.

In 2014, ODU's stellar offensive line has some rebuilding to do, but with an experienced quarterback and options galore at receiver and running back, the Monarchs will move the ball. Meanwhile, the defense is deeper and more experienced, but its issues against FBS teams were deep enough that they will almost certainly not be resolved in a single offseason. There will still be points and yards in 2014, plenty of points and yards.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-4
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L
31-Aug	East Carolina	40	38-52	L	44.5 - 34.6	W
7-Sep	Maryland	63	10-47	L	23.8 - 52.1	L
14-Sep	Howard	N/A	76-19	W	N/A	N/A
21-Sep	The Citadel	N/A	59-58	W	N/A	N/A
28-Sep	Albany	N/A	66-10	W	N/A	N/A
5-Oct	Liberty	N/A	21-17	W	N/A	N/A
19-Oct	Pittsburgh	54	24-35	L	24.9 - 35.4	L
26-Oct	Norfolk State	N/A	27-24	W	N/A	N/A
2-Nov	Rhode Island	N/A	66-14	W	N/A	N/A
9-Nov	Idaho	116	59-38	W	31.1 - 38.5	L
16-Nov	Charlotte	N/A	42-14	W	N/A	N/A
23-Nov	North Carolina	38	20-80	L	22.3 - 60.8	L

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
Points Per Game	42.3	N/A	34.0	N/A
Adj. Points Per Game (5 games)	29.3	N/A	44.3	N/A

3. The offense was ready

ODU played five games against FBS competition in 2013 -- three against ACC teams, one against a future conference mate (ECU), and one against a Sun Belt team (Idaho). The Monarchs averaged at least 5.2 yards per play in four of five games and at least 6.1 twice. They also scored at least 24 points three times and at least 38 points twice. They were mostly shut down by Maryland, but it's safe to say the ODU offense was FBS-ready.

The defense was ... less ready. Injuries played a serious role in a late-season fade, but the D certainly wasn't very good at the beginning of the season either. The Monarchs allowed at least 5.9 yards per play in all five FBS games, allowed 8.5 and 47 points to Maryland, then allowed an incredible 10.6 per play and 80 points in the season finale against a red-hot North Carolina team; the UNC game got so badly out of hand that the teams agreed to shrink the fourth quarter to only 10 minutes. UNC scored its 80th point 41 minutes in, then went out of its way not to score again.

The defense was bad, then got worse, in other words.

With new defensive assistants and some (intended) immediate-impact signees in the 2014 recruiting class, the defense should improve. But it could improve by quite a bit and still be quite a liability.

Offense

Note: The advanced rankings that exist below are culled from ODU's five games against FBS competition -- obviously not a large sample size.

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	N/A	35	44	51
RUSHING	N/A	8	5	80
PASSING	N/A	66	67	36
Standard Downs		57	51	64
Passing Downs		20	30	25

Q1 Rk	38	1st Down Rk	60
Q2 Rk	61	2nd Down Rk	18
Q3 Rk	38	3rd Down Rk	111
Q4 Rk	117

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Yards/ Pass
Taylor Heinicke	6'1, 210	Sr.	NR	340	486	4022	33	8	70.0%	8.3
David Washington	6'3, 220	So.	3 stars (5.5)	22	31	259	4	0	71.0%	8.4
Shuler Bentley	6'0, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

4. Hello, world

He was named the Old Spice Player of the Year for the state of Georgia in high school. As a true freshman at ODU, he threw 10 touchdown passes in two FCS playoff games. As a sophomore, he won the Walter Payton Award, the FCS' Heisman. As a junior, he threw for 4,022 yards and completed 70 percent of his passes with 33 touchdowns and just eight interceptions.

Taylor Heinicke is really, really good. And as a senior, he will have his largest stage yet to prove it. He's reasonably mobile and insanely accurate, and while his size isn't optimal, he should have quite a chance to make an impression on NFL scouts this fall. And when he leaves after the 2014 season, ODU appears to be in pretty good hands when it comes to a successor, too. David Washington and Shuler Bentley were both rather well-touted recruits, and Washington performed well as an understudy last fall.

ODU's offense is as high-octane as they come. Including sacks, the Monarchs attempted nearly 45 passes per game in 2013 (despite holding leads in most FCS games), and Heinicke was able to complete nearly three quarters of his passes while still taking shots downfield to players like Larry Pinkard and Antonio Vaughan. ODU stretches you wide, then attempts to pierce you vertically. Heinicke appears to be the perfect weapon for Bobby Wilder and offensive coordinator Brian Scott.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry
Colby Goodwyn	RB				104	483	12	4.6
Taylor Heinicke	QB	6'1, 210	Sr.	NR	93	348	5	3.7
Cam Boyd	RB	5'6, 175	Sr.	NR	76	450	5	5.9
Antonio Vaughan	WR	5'8, 175	Sr.	NR	28	92	1	3.3
Gerard Johnson	RB	5'9, 200	So.	2 stars (5.3)	57	372	5	6.5
David Washington	QB	6'3, 220	So.	3 stars (5.5)	29	124	1	4.3
Malik Moseley	RB	5'11, 190	RSFr.	NR
Ray Lawry	RB	5'10, 183	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Vincent Lowe	RB	5'7, 175	Fr.	NR

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Catches	Yards	Yards Per Catch
Larry Pinkard	WR	6'0, 190	Sr.	NR	68	1020	15.0
Antonio Vaughan	WR	5'8, 175	Sr.	NR	60	843	14.1
Blair Roberts	WR	6'2, 195	Sr.	NR	46	560	12.2
Zach Pascal	WR	6'2, 210	So.	NR	41	534	13.0
Marquel Thomas	WR				35	414	11.8
Colby Goodwyn	RB				34	273	8.0
Cam Boyd	RB	5'6, 175	Sr.	NR	24	206	8.6
Melvin Vaughn	WR	6'2, 240	So.	NR	19	149	7.8
Jakwail Bailey	WR	5'11, 185	Sr.	NR	18	127	7.1
Kirk Spellman	WR	5'10, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	7	102	14.6
Gerard Johnson	RB	5'9, 200	So.	2 stars (5.3)	6	59	9.8
C.J. Bradshaw	WR	5'10, 190	So.	NR	2	13	6.5
Nick England	WR	6'0, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Kevin Privott	WR	6'1, 175	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Jusse Yorke	WR	5'11, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Marques Little	WR	5'9, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

5. Taylor's got options

ODU distributed the ball wonderfully in 2013, and there's no reason to think that will be any different this coming fall. Nine players caught at least 18 passes last fall, and seven return, including two big-play threats in seniors Larry Pinkard and Antonio Vaughan, who combined for nearly 11 catches and 155 yards per game. Senior Blair Roberts is a solid possession man, sophomore Zach Pascal was exciting for a freshman, and this foursome is joined by FIU transfer Nick England and three-star JUCO transfer Jusse Yorke, who is turning heads this spring.

The receiving corps is loaded with big(ish) and small targets. While leading rusher Colby Goodwyn is gone, it's difficult not to be optimistic about what remains in the backfield; senior Cam Boyd and sophomore Gerard Johnson were bigger-play threats than Goodwyn, and three-star freshman Ray Lawry could quickly play a role.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	117.8	2.96	4.41	41.2%	87.5%	16.9%	132.0	4.1%	6.0%
Rank	8	62	3	43	2	35	35	51	51

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Jack Lowney	LT				43
David Born	LG				32
D.J. Morrell	RT				25
Josh Mann	C	6'2, 310	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	23
Connor Mewbourne	RG	6'4, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	10
Tyler Fisher	LG	6'3, 312	So.	NR	6
Troy Butler	C	6'3, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	4
Kyle Bottoms	LT	6'5, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Andrew Maddox	LG	6'5, 300	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Tyler Compton	C	6'4, 300	So.	NR	0
Ely Anderson	RT	6'6, 290	Jr.	NR	0
Davis Farmer	OT	6'5, 320	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Raul Martinez	OL	6'5, 285	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Brandon Tyson	OL	6'1, 320	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

6. The line was (past tense) outstanding

Despite a lack of breakaway threat at running back, ODU's rushing numbers against FBS competition were quite strong. That the Monarchs were spreading defenses out and featuring a pretty mobile quarterback certainly didn't hurt, but the blocking itself graded out quite well. Again, this is a small sample size, so we shouldn't draw conclusions too strongly, but in five games ODU ranked eighth in Adj. Line Yards and 35th in Adj. Sack Rate. That's the good news. The bad news is that three of the reasons for the line's success are gone.

At the end of the 2013 season, ODU's line had amassed 143 career starts; those responsible for 100 of them are now gone, including both tackles in a pass-happy offense. The interior line should be solid, anchored by two-year starting center Josh Mann, and three-star JUCO transfer Raul Martinez could be an immediate-impact guy, but it would be a shame if a drop-off up front prevents a loaded set of skill position players from thriving.

Defense

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	N/A	122	123	121
RUSHING	N/A	117	114	126
PASSING	N/A	122	124	92
Standard Downs		123	123	101
Passing Downs		120	119	119

Q1 Rk	119	1st Down Rk	123
Q2 Rk	126	2nd Down Rk	126
Q3 Rk	125	3rd Down Rk	118
Q4 Rk	34

7. The stats match the anecdotes

If all you knew about ODU's 2013 season was the 80-20 final score of the UNC game (it certainly made headlines, as did the abbreviated fourth quarter), your view of ODU wouldn't be altogether inaccurate; the defense wasn't always that bad, and the offense was often a bit better, but defense was a disaster for the Monarchs in 2013.

And in looking at the players and stats in this piece, it's not difficult to see why. ODU's defense was terribly young and banged up. Its secondary either wasn't good enough to make plays on the ball or was overwhelmed by the sieve in front of it.

ODU was able to rush the passer reasonably well; or at least, middle linebacker Richie Staton and corner Eriq Lewis were able to blitz well. Staton had 10.5 tackles for loss and four sacks as a freshman, which obviously bodes well for him when it comes to overall potential. Lewis, meanwhile, chipped in 5.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks among just 16.5 tackles in nine games.

Unfortunately, any gains that could be made from ODU's 78 tackles for loss were wiped away by a line that got pushed around a bit too much and a linebacking corps that couldn't keep anybody healthy. By the end of the season, ODU was down to two healthy scholarship linebackers, and while Staton certainly made his share of plays, there were too many breakdowns among the front seven for ODU to put up much of a fight against a decent offense. (And to be sure, there are plenty of decent offenses in Conference USA.)

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	82.8	3.54	3.39	51.1%	68.4%	17.9%	90.0	4.5%	8.8%
Rank	123	121	74	126	73	82	80	60	25

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Terrell Reid	DE	6'2, 265	So.	NR	10	25.5	3.7%	6.5	3.0	0	0	1	0
Preston Smith	DT	6'2, 270	Sr.	NR	12	22.0	3.2%	4.0	2.0	0	0	2	1
Andrew Everett	STUD	6'5, 230	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	21.0	3.0%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dominique Guinn-Bailey	DT	6'4, 280	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	16.5	2.4%	3.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Chris Smith	NT	6'1, 310	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	16.5	2.4%	2.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Scott Wiggins	STUD	6'3, 225	So.	NR	12	16.0	2.3%	5.0	2.0	0	2	0	0
Alex Johnson	DE				10	12.5	1.8%	4.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Galen Evans (2012)	DT	6'3, 310	So.	2 stars (5.2)	11	11.0	1.5%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Jude Brenya	DE	6'3, 250	So.	NR	8	9.0	1.3%	4.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Nate Barnes	DT				8	8.0	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Rashaad Coward	NT	6'5, 300	So.	2 stars (5.4)	10	7.5	1.1%	2.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Gary Scruggs	DE	6'0, 260	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	10	6.5	0.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	1
Malik Gumbs	DT	6'1, 295	Sr.	NR	7	6.0	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cullen Casey	DT	6'3, 295	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Bunmi Rotimi	DT	6'4, 295	RSFr.	NR
Poncho Barnwell	DE	6'4, 250	Jr.	NR

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Andre Simmons	OLB	6'0, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	63.5	9.1%	1.5	0.0	0	3	0	0
John Darr	OLB				12	54.5	7.9%	5.5	0.0	0	3	1	0
Richie Staton	MLB	6'1, 230	So.	NR	12	53.0	7.6%	10.5	4.0	0	1	0	1
D.J. Simon	MLB	6'0, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	29.0	4.2%	6.5	0.0	3	0	1	0
Anthony Wilson	LB	6'1, 220	So.	NR	10	17.0	2.4%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
TJ Ricks	OLB	6'0, 225	So.	NR	12	13.0	1.9%	2.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Caleb Taylor	LB				3	8.5	1.2%	1.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Larry Alston III	LB				6	8.0	1.2%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	1
Kanyia Anderson	LB	6'1, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	4.0	0.6%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Martez Simpson	LB	6'1, 220	Jr.	NR
Kohl Adams-Hurd	LB	6'2, 215	Jr.	NR
Reece Schmidt	LB	6'3, 240	Jr.	NR

8. A step forward in the depth department

When Caleb Taylor and Larry Alston III got kicked off the team last fall, any semblance of linebacker depth was washed away. Throw in an injury to walk-on reserve Anthony Wilson, and you saw a unit reaching critical mass. The secondary was too young to make up the difference, and the defensive line just didn't have any play-makers.

Throwing more warm bodies at a problem doesn't automatically solve it -- there has to be actual talent involved -- but we do know that, at the very least, more warm bodies are available in 2014. Sophomore tackle Galen Evans, who showed potential as a freshman in 2012, is back after an injury redshirt; he is joined by a couple of big redshirt freshmen and a beautifully named JUCO transfer at end, Poncho Barnwell. Last year's top six tacklers also return.

At linebacker, Staton and senior D.J. Simon return, Andre Simmons moves to OLB from strong safety, former star recruit Kanyia Anderson has a year to get used to the position after an emergency move last fall, and ODU signed three JUCO transfers as well. At the very least, the Monarchs will be able to fill out a two-deep.

In the back, despite losing Simmons to a different unit, the secondary is still rather experienced. It needs to make infinitely more plays on the ball, but eight of the top 10 tacklers are back, including Lewis and a potentially solid safety in junior Fellonte Misher. Again, we still have to find out how much actual talent is here, but the depth has improved to an infinite degree.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Fellonte Misher	SS	6'2, 205	Jr.	NR	12	74.5	10.7%	0	0	2	5	0	2
Paul Morant	ROV				12	28.0	4.0%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Malique Johnson	ROV	6'2, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	26.5	3.8%	3	1	0	1	0	0
Reggie Owens	CB	6'0, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	25.5	3.7%	1	1	1	3	2	1
Sandy Chapman	CB	5'10, 175	So.	NR	11	24.5	3.5%	3	0	1	4	0	0
Jevon Neal	CB	5'9, 175	Sr.	NR	12	19.5	2.8%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Rob Thompson	SS	6'1, 185	So.	2 stars (5.2)	10	17.0	2.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Eriq Lewis	CB	6'0, 180	Sr.	NR	9	16.5	2.4%	5.5	2.5	0	3	1	0
Daquin Moore	FS	6'3, 192	So.	NR	7	15.5	2.2%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Aaron Evans	CB				12	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Aaron Young	CB	5'11, 185	So.	2 stars (5.4)	4	1.0	0.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Christian Byrum	S	6'1, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Justin Noye	S	6'1, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Jake Walsh			18	38.2	0	7	6	72.2%
Taylor Heinicke	6'1, 205	Sr.	13	41.5	1	0	3	23.1%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jarod Brown			84	63.4	34	5	40.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jarod Brown			64-65	10-12	83.3%	3-8	37.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Aaron Evans	KR			33	24.3	0
Colby Goodwyn	KR			8	17.6	0
Aaron Evans	PR			6	11.7	1
Antonio Vaughan	PR	5'8, 175	Sr.	2	10.5	0

9. Punter Taylor Heinicke

In 1987, Tom Tupa threw for 2,250 yards and 15 touchdowns as Ohio State's starting quarterback; he was also an All-American punter. Granted, Tom Tupa, Jr., is actually a redshirt freshman quarterback at Miami (Ohio) right now, but Taylor Heinicke has quite a bit of the Tupa spirit in him. He punted four times as a freshman and 13 more as a junior, and while one has to assume the goal isn't for him to punt all season for ODU, if he had to it wouldn't be the end of the world. He averaged 41.5 yards in his 13 punts (so he wasn't just pooch kicking from the opponent's 40).

Seriously, if you like unique talent and prolific stats, Heinicke should probably be your favorite player in the country. Now if only he could also place-kick and return kicks. It might save ODU's special teams unit from being a bit of a liability this year.

2014 Schedule

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Hampton	NR
6-Sep	at N.C. State	68
13-Sep	Eastern Michigan	122
20-Sep	at Rice	88
26-Sep	Middle Tennessee	99
4-Oct	Marshall	59
11-Oct	at UTEP	117
25-Oct	at Western Kentucky	91
1-Nov	at Vanderbilt	58
8-Nov	Florida International	119
22-Nov	Louisiana Tech	98
29-Nov	Florida Atlantic	103

10. If the defense holds up...

...the offense will play its part. Losing three stalwarts on the offensive line is a concern, but it's basically the only one on the offensive side of the ball. ODU has a quarterback who can rival Marshall's Rakeem Cato for best-in-the-conference honors, and the Monarchs have a lot of exciting places he can go with the ball. When you look at the schedule above, you see a lot of defenses Heinicke and company can victimize to a large degree.

The likely success of the offense is hard to question; the success of the team as a whole, however, will depend on the defense. There isn't a significant number of dominant offenses on ODU's 2014 slate, but ODU could make plenty of decent offenses LOOK dominant without serious improvement.

What Bobby Wilder has accomplished overall at ODU is stunning. His name has been mentioned with this or that job opening in the last couple of years, but he has remained in Norfolk to oversee the transition of ODU from theory to FCS powerhouse to Conference USA member. He just signed the No. 2 recruiting class in this new conference of residence, too. Wilder has thus far aimed high but reached even higher. Until we know what his and the Monarchs' ceiling actually is, it would be silly to project one.

If ODU has even a top-100 defense in 2014, the Monarchs could challenge for a spot the C-USA title game. I doubt they will, but it's on the table. But even if they fall short of that goal (my guess is something in the neighborhood of a 6-6 or 7-5 finish), they should be entertaining as hell. Watch them if you can.