The big 2014 UTEP football preview: A second first year

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. There are worse things than being stuck in a rut

It's a concept I bring up a few times each year in my preview series: Glen Mason Territory. A coach experiences greater-than-usual success at a school and hits a bit of a plateau. The program cruises along at a higher level than normal but doesn't raise its level again, and impatience builds.

Mike Price began his UTEP career in 2004 and immediately ripped off back-to-back eight-win seasons. The Miners spent parts of both 2004 and 2005 ranked in the AP top 25 and reached as many bowls in that span (two) as they had from 1968 to 2003. Over the next six seasons, UTEP sank, but Price continued to win at a higher level than his predecessors. UTEP reached another bowl in 2010, but from 2010-12 the Miners basically put the same mediocre product on the field, and Price retired after a 3-9 campaign in 2012.

The namesake of Glen Mason Territory was fired from Minnesota after seasons of 7-5, 7-5, and 6-7. The year after Mason left, the Gophers went 1-11. Either because a new coach inherits a program with crumbling infrastructure, or because it takes a hell of a coaching job just to achieve at a mediocre level at a certain program, a team can experience a significant drop-off when it finally gets rid of its Glen Mason.

This is a long way of saying that in its first year without Mike Price, UTEP won the same numbers of games as it had the year before Price arrived in El Paso: two. Sean Kugler was able to patch together a decent offense until his quarterback got hurt, but a paper-thin defense became a non-existent one over time, and UTEP played like perhaps the worst team in the country over the final month or so of the season.

Because of injuries, however, Kugler gets a mulligan. In 2014, he has a chance to prove that it doesn't take a superhuman coaching effort simply to reach 5-7 on Glory Road.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 0-12 | Final F/+ Rk: 119
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
7-Sep	New Mexico	110	35-42	L	25.1 - 41.2	L
14-Sep	at New Mexico State	122	42-21	W	19.8 - 45.3	L
21-Sep	UTSA	67	13-32	L	14.3 - 32.9	L
28-Sep	at Colorado State	66	42-59	L	32.0 - 49.2	L
5-Oct	Louisiana Tech	112	35-38	L	31.3 - 40.4	L	-17.3
12-Oct	Tulsa	94	20-34	L	24.5 - 44.8	L	-18.2
26-Oct	at Rice	69	7-45	L	28.6 - 44.2	L	-16.2
2-Nov	at Texas A&M	23	7-57	L	5.1 - 37.7	L	-19.0
9-Nov	at North Texas	51	7-41	L	8.8 - 33.4	L	-20.4
16-Nov	Florida International	125	33-10	W	28.1 - 28.9	L	-18.8
23-Nov	at Tulane	70	3-45	L	15.9 - 51.7	L	-21.9
30-Nov	at Middle Tennessee	85	17-48	L	21.7 - 47.8	L	-24.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-8.6%	97	-24.5%	124	+0.3%	58
Points Per Game	21.8	102	39.3	118
Adj. Points Per Game	21.3	111	41.5	122

2. A new level of bad

Texas A&M transfer Jameill Showers didn't light the world on fire at UTEP, but he was certainly a competent quarterback. He averaged almost six yards per pass attempt with sketchy protection, and he averaged 6.1 yards per carry not including sacks. With Showers behind center, UTEP averaged at least 5.4 yards per play in five of its first seven games and scored at least 20 points five times. That's not amazing, but it's not atrocious.

But then Showers was lost to a shoulder injury, and bad things happened. Replacement Blaire Sullivan threw some interceptions and was demoted. A pair of freshmen took their turns at the wheel with middling results. An awful defense improved a hair down the stretch, but it wasn't enough to offset drastic offensive regression.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 7 games): Opponent 42.6, UTEP 25.1 (minus-17.5)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 5 games): Opponent 39.9, UTEP 15.9 (minus-24.0)

Adjusted Score looks at how a team would have performed against a perfectly average opponent in a given week. Over the final five games of the season, UTEP would have lost to this average opponent by an average of 24 points. Average (actual) score of the last five road games of the season: Home Team 47, UTEP 8.

This wasn't a fun season. Between injuries and the attrition often associated with a head coach's first season (and an attempted culture change), UTEP was too thin, too inexperienced, and too small. We'll see how much can change in a single offseason.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.14	67	IsoPPP+	92.5	101
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.7%	99	Succ. Rt. +	85.9	111
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.4	82	Def. FP+	97.4	84
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	94	Redzone S&P+	86.3	108
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.5		ACTUAL	18	-0.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	105	106	112	117
RUSHING	46	98	96	85
PASSING	112	112	117	117
Standard Downs		102	104	104
Passing Downs		111	111	97

Q1 Rk	119	1st Down Rk	115
Q2 Rk	123	2nd Down Rk	116
Q3 Rk	56	3rd Down Rk	109
Q4 Rk	114

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Jameill Showers	6'2, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	107	188	1263	11	4	56.9%	14	6.9%	5.8
Mack Leftwich	5'10, 190	So.	2 stars (5.2)	44	75	458	2	2	58.7%	10	11.8%	4.6
Blaire Sullivan				15	26	183	1	4	57.7%	2	7.1%	6.2
Garrett Simpson	6'7, 250	So.	2 stars (5.4)	3	3	55	0	0	100.0%	0	0.0%	18.3

3. A potentially solid attack with Showers

Again, Showers wasn't exactly performing at an all-conference level when he went down. At 11.8 yards per completion, you should be completing about 65 percent of your passes, not 57. And you definitely shouldn't be taking sacks on seven percent of your pass attempts. So Showers certainly still has some improvement he can make.

Still, it says something that UTEP's performance regressed by more than five adjusted points after his injury, and it doesn't only say that his backups weren't ready. With a year of experience within Kugler's and offensive coordinator Patrick Higgins' system, and with a wealth of weapons next to him in the backfield, he should be able to post pretty good numbers this fall.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Aaron Jones	RB	5'10, 185	So.	2 stars (5.4)	155	811	4	5.2	4.5	41.9%
Nathan Jeffery	RB	6'0, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	133	532	5	4.0	5.3	21.8%
Jameill Showers	QB	6'2, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	47	286	4	6.1	3.3	53.2%
Autrey Golden	RB	5'11, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	43	150	1	3.5	4.0	27.9%
Jeremiah Laufasa (Washington State)	RB	6'0, 215	Jr.	NR	35	157	7	4.5	2.3	42.9%
Blaire Sullivan	QB				33	181	0	5.5	10.8	33.3%
Darrin Laufasa	RB	6'1, 235	So.	2 stars (5.3)	26	137	2	5.3	6.5	34.6%
Josh Bell	RB	6'0, 220	Sr.	NR	25	85	0	3.4	1.6	32.0%
Mack Leftwich	QB	5'10, 190	So.	2 stars (5.2)	21	65	0	3.1	2.7	19.0%
LaQuintus Dowell	DB	5'10, 205	Jr.	NR	19	135	1	7.1	8.7	36.8%
David Hamm	RB	6'0, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Treyvon Hughes	RB	5'11, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

4. Plenty of options at RB

UTEP wanted to run as much as possible in 2013, and it's not hard to see why. Patrick Higgins has experience in pass-happy offenses, but Showers is a relatively mobile quarterback (he averaged about seven non-sack carries per game), and after Showers went down, there was perhaps an understandable urge to protect young, error-prone quarterbacks with a heavy dose of rushing.

Beyond that, however, there's another reason to want to run the ball: the Miners have pretty decent running backs.

The backfield is crowded. Granted, the backs couldn't stay healthy in 2013 (who could on this team?), but Nathan Jeffery has shown solid explosiveness in the open field (when he can get there), and Aaron Jones was quite efficient for a freshman. Autrey Golden is a former star recruit and a great return man, and Darrin Laufasa showed strong potential in minimal opportunities. They could be joined by Laufasa's brother Jeremiah, a Washington State transfer, if his immediate-play waiver is granted. Plus, two of 2014's more highly touted recruits (David Hamm and Treyvon Hughes) are running backs. This is easily the deepest position on the team.

One should expect a heavy dose of running again this fall, not only because of the depth of the running back position, but because of the lack thereof at wide receiver. Star receiver Jordan Leslie used a graduate transfer and will be playing for BYU this year; his per-target averages weren't amazing and could honestly be matched by big senior Ian Hamilton, but it's a bit of a mystery figuring out who might be capable of then matching both Hamilton's and Devin Patterson's production. After Hamilton, the leading returning wideout, Malcolm Trail, had three catches last year. Tight end Eric Tomlinson's efficiency will help, but this is a shaky unit.

One fun tidbit: receiver Brandon Moss appears to be turning some heads this spring. He caught zero passes as a freshman ... but did punt five times.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Jordan Leslie	WR-Z				77	44	612	57.1%	27.6%	48.5%	7.9	45	8.7	67.5
Eric Tomlinson	TE	6'7, 265	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	44	30	304	68.2%	15.8%	61.8%	6.9	-49	6.0	33.5
Ian Hamilton	WR-X	6'5, 225	Sr.	NR	39	25	354	64.1%	14.0%	55.2%	9.1	51	10.9	39.0
Devin Patterson	WR-X				27	18	211	66.7%	9.7%	58.8%	7.8	-3	8.5	23.3
Craig Wenrick	TE				20	10	180	50.0%	7.2%	58.3%	9.0	41	6.5	19.8
Josh Bell	RB	6'0, 220	Sr.	NR	19	13	91	68.4%	6.8%	41.7%	4.8	-62	5.3	10.0
Darrin Laufasa	RB	6'1, 235	So.	2 stars (5.3)	11	8	29	72.7%	3.9%	44.4%	2.6	-62	3.1	3.2
Kevin Perry	TE				11	5	34	45.5%	3.9%	55.6%	3.1	-39	2.8	3.7
Malcolm Trail	WR-Z	6'1, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	8	3	31	37.5%	2.9%	66.7%	3.9	-18	5.4	3.4
Aaron Jones	RB	5'10, 185	So.	2 stars (5.4)	7	4	14	57.1%	2.5%	60.0%	2.0	-38	2.3	1.5
Katrae Ford	TE	6'5, 250	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	4	3	24	75.0%	1.4%	0.0%	6.0	-10	0.9	2.6
Nathan Jeffery	RB	6'0, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	4	2	23	50.0%	1.4%	50.0%	5.8	-5	5.7	2.5
Autrey Golden	RB	5'11, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	3	2	38	66.7%	1.1%	N/A	12.7	14	0.0	4.2
Jim Jones	WR				3	1	9	33.3%	1.1%	0.0%	3.0	-9	2.0	1.0
Peter Carreon	WR				2	1	5	50.0%	0.7%	N/A	2.5	-9	0.0	0.6
Brandon Moss	WR	6'3, 190	So.	2 stars (5.2)
Nick Jones	TE	6'7, 260	Jr.	2 stars

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.7	3.11	3.3	33.7%	73.7%	14.0%	62.5	7.3%	10.7%
Rank	80	42	58	114	36	9	117	110	106

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Brander Craighead	LT				35
Jerel Watkins	LT	6'3, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5)	29
Kyle Brown	RT	6'2, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	24
Paulo Melendez	C	6'3, 305	Sr.	NR	12
Mike Amdall	RT				12
Christian Harper	RT	6'4, 285	So.	2 stars (5.3)	3
Jerome Daniels	LG	6'3, 295	So.	2 stars (5.4)	1
Chris Thomas	LT	6'4, 325	Jr.	NR	0
Eric Lee	C	6'1, 295	Jr.	NR	0
James Robinson	RG				0
Derek Elmendorff	OL	6'3, 295	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Will Hernandez	OL	6'3, 305	RSFr.	NR

5. A line as good as its backs

Obviously line stats are only partially reflective of the line itself; if your running back dances too much in the backfield, or if he doesn't properly follow blocks downfield, it's going to reflect poorly in the line stats above. But the fact that UTEP's Stuff Rate (stops in the backfield) was great and its Opportunity Rate (percentage of runs that gain at least five yards) was awful suggests that UTEP's line was competent but couldn't get much of a push. If you look back at the rushing stats above, you see that Nathan Jeffery's Opportunity Rate was half of Aaron Jones', suggesting he perhaps dances a bit too much, but UTEP's focus on weight gain in the offseason certainly gives merit to the "not much of a push" theory.

Most of the offensive linemen above have put on 10 pounds or more in the offseason. Starting guards Jerel Watkins and Kyle Brown, neither of whom are 300-pounders, have moved outside to replace last year's starting tackles and make way for perhaps bigger guards like redshirt freshmen Derek Elmendorff or Will Hernandez in the starting lineup. Aaron Jones appears to be a nice follower of blocks (with minimal explosiveness), but giving his blockers a little bit more heft can't hurt.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.39	122	IsoPPP+	77.7	125
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.5%	114	Succ. Rt. +	82.9	116
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	27.8	104	Off. FP+	97.5	88
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.4	122	Redzone S&P+	80.8	117
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.0		ACTUAL	12.0	-4.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	109	123	116	120
RUSHING	119	119	109	114
PASSING	49	124	113	116
Standard Downs		122	115	123
Passing Downs		124	114	126

Q1 Rk	126	1st Down Rk	124
Q2 Rk	121	2nd Down Rk	119
Q3 Rk	120	3rd Down Rk	124
Q4 Rk	104

6. When the 4-2-5 is bad, the 4-2-5 is the worst

Really, the UTEP defense was doomed from the start. Kugler's first choice for defensive coordinator, Jeff Choate, installed a 3-4 defense last spring, then left for a special teams job with Florida. Kugler hired Scott Stoker over the summer, and Stoker installed a 4-2-5.

The 4-2-5 puts a lot of demands on its personnel. First, you need a big line that can hold up to run blocking without help. Second, you need a wealth of interesting safeties. UTEP had neither of these things. And if you don't have the right personnel for the 4-2-5, you end up with a defense that doesn't have enough meat to avoid getting pushed around and doesn't have enough speed to make up the difference.

Yes, any scheme has its natural assets and liabilities, but it seems that a lot of defenses struggle mightily when switching to this permanent nickel look. UTEP was no different. Safety Richard Spencer was injured, then suspended. Wesley Miller was healthy for only four games. None -- none! -- of the top 12 tacklers played in all 12 games. UTEP didn't have the personnel to properly pull off a 6-3-2 defense, much less a 4-2-5.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	84.7	3.44	4.09	48.6%	71.4%	15.7%	86.6	2.4%	7.9%
Rank	120	119	122	123	90	105	89	113	40

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
James Davidson	DE				12	33.5	5.6%	6.0	3.0	0	0	1	0
Marcus Bagley	NT				12	33.0	5.5%	4.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	DE	6'7, 255	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	23.0	3.8%	6.0	3.5	0	2	0	0
Silas Firstley	DE	6'1, 265	So.	2 stars (5.2)	10	17.5	2.9%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Germard Reed	DT				8	16.5	2.8%	2.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Gino Bresolin	DT	6'2, 285	So.	2 stars (5.2)	7	11.0	1.8%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nick Usher	DE	6'3, 235	So.	2 stars (5.3)	12	11.0	1.8%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Adam Ayala	DE				9	9.0	1.5%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Maurice Chavis	DT	6'1, 275	Sr.	NR	6	4.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Devante Richardson	NT	6'2, 290	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Brian Madunezim	DE	6'3, 260	So.	2 stars (5.2)
Dewan Edmonson	DT	6'1, 285	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Alex Villarreal	DT	6'4, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jason Fao	NG	6'0, 300	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. Bulking up

When UTEP was able to leverage opponents into passing downs, the Miners put together a decent pass rush, ranking 40th in Passing Downs Sack Rate. Of course, they still allowed too many big plays for that to matter (126th, dead last, in Passing Downs PPP+), and they couldn't really force any passing downs anyway.

UTEP was bereft of talent, experience, or heft in 2013; in 2014, the Miners are at least doing something about the heft. As with the offensive line, most of the above returnees have put on 10 pounds, and some have put on 20. This isn't guaranteed to help, and the four returning defensive tackles still average a listed weight of just 284 pounds, but it's a start. And if 300-pound JUCO transfer Alex Villareal is ready to play at an FBS level out of the gates, that's even better.

This isn't going to become a good line overnight, but Robertson-Harris certainly looks the part, and despite the loss of three of the top five tacklers, this unit isn't going to be any worse.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Anthony Puente	MIKE	5'11, 225	Sr.	NR	12	45.0	7.5%	2.0	0.5	0	1	0	0
Horace Miller	WILL				12	34.5	5.8%	1.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
A.J. Ropati	MIKE				12	18.0	3.0%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
DeAndre Little (2012)	LB	6'2, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	11	16.5	2.4%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Trey Brown	WILL	6'0, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	11.0	1.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
David Logston	LB				7	3.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Michael Kelley	LB				10	3.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cooper Foster	LB	6'1, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)	11	1.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jimmy Musgrave	LB	6'0, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Alvin Jones	LB	5'10, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Lawrence Montegut	LB	6'1, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Justen Tatum	LB	6'1, 240	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Devin Cockrell	FS	5'11, 185	So.	2 stars (5.2)	11	60.5	10.1%	1.5	0	1	2	0	0
Dashone Smith	WS	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	11	53.5	8.9%	1.5	0	2	1	1	0
Ishmael Harrison	CB	6'0, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	28.0	4.7%	1.5	0	0	3	0	0
Jameel Erving	SS	6'1, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	10	23.0	3.8%	4	0	0	3	0	0
Demarcus Kizzie	FS				9	23.0	3.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Richard Spencer	S				3	19.0	3.2%	2.5	1	0	0	2	1
Traun Roberson	WS	6'0, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	11	17.5	2.9%	1	0	0	0	1	0
Wesley Miller	FS	5'10, 195	Sr.	NR	4	16.5	2.8%	1.5	0	0	5	0	0
Quinton Tezeno	CB	5'11, 170	So.	2 stars (5.4)	10	15.0	2.5%	0	0	0	4	0	0
Nick Gathrite	CB	5'9, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	11	14.0	2.3%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Adrian James	CB	6'0, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	9	12.5	2.1%	2	0	0	3	0	0
Da'Carlos Renfro	DB	5'10, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	5	8.0	1.3%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Leon Hayes	SS	5'10, 200	So.	2 stars (5.3)	12	7.5	1.3%	0	0	0	0	1	0
LaQuintus Dowell	S	5'10, 205	Jr.	NR

8. So. Many. Big plays.

UTEP allowed 81 gains of at least 20 yards in 2013, 124th in the country. The Miners allowed 40 gains of at least 30 yards (118th), 22 of at least 40 yards (117th), 12 of at least 50 yards (112th), eight of at least 60 yards (116th), and five of at least 70 yards (118th). They played a safety-heavy defense with almost no healthy safeties; freshmen ended up No. 1 and No. 2 on the team in tackles.

This was just a disaster in every possible way. But with experience comes a little bit of hope. Devin Cockrell and Dashone Smith, the aforementioned freshman leaders, are sophomores now, and senior safety Jameel Erving has shown some play-making potential (four tackles for loss, three pass break-ups) amid the breakdowns. Plus, this personnel has now played in this system. It's not new anymore. There's no reason to think this defense will improve dramatically, but it should certainly take at least one step forward in 2014.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Mike Ruggles	6'6, 210	So.	57	40.2	2	17	16	57.9%
Brandon Moss	6'3, 190	So.	5	38.6	0	0	0	0.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jay Mattox	6'0, 185	So.	53	61.2	22	0	41.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jay Mattox	6'0, 185	So.	32-32	5-10	50.0%	2-5	40.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Autrey Golden	KR	5'11, 180	Jr.	28	27.9	2
Josh Bell	KR	6'0, 220	Sr.	10	22.1	0
Jim Jones	PR			16	5.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	59
Field Goal Efficiency	119
Punt Return Efficiency	78
Kick Return Efficiency	11
Punt Efficiency	40
Kickoff Efficiency	25
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	58

9. Field position weapons

UTEP's defense was awful early, and the offense was awful late, and both units squandered a ready-made field position advantage in the form of quality kicking and returns. Punter Mike Ruggles kicked high, kicker Jay Mattox kicked long, and Autrey Golden was one of the best kick returners in the country; they all return, as well. Granted, this unit as a whole was dragged down by Mattox's scatter-shot place-kicking (5-for-10 under 40 yards isn't going to cut it), but he was a freshman.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	at New Mexico	116
6-Sep	Texas Tech	47
13-Sep	New Mexico State	124
27-Sep	at Kansas State	42
4-Oct	at Louisiana Tech	98
11-Oct	Old Dominion	NR
25-Oct	at UTSA	75
1-Nov	Southern Miss	110
8-Nov	at Western Kentucky	91
15-Nov	North Texas	94
21-Nov	at Rice	88
29-Nov	Middle Tennessee	99

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-17.7% (110)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	124
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-6 / -2.5
TO Luck/Game	-1.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (8, 6)

10. It probably won't get worse

Freshmen become sophomores, and injuries usually heal. That's just about the best news one can deliver for UTEP in 2014. There's no massive talent infusion, but after fighting through experience, depth, and health issues in 2013, the Miners will be more experienced, deeper, and (probably) healthier this fall. They are bigger in the trenches, even deeper at running back, and more experienced in the secondary, and last year's new offensive and defensive systems are no longer new.

Granted, the schedule isn't particularly forgiving, featuring just four teams projected worse than 98th, but improvement on the field should be reflected at least a little bit in the win-loss record.