The big 2014 FIU football preview: Long crawl back to competence

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1. It was barely two years ago

In September 2011, Florida International won at Louisville on a Friday night, then took down UCF at home the next weekend. The Golden Panthers were receiving AP poll votes, and receiver T.Y. Hilton was becoming a bit of a household name, at least among college football-obsessed households.

FIU faded a bit, losing three Sun Belt Conference games (two by a combined six points) and falling out of the conference title race. Marshall would pull an upset of the Golden Panthers in the Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl, and FIU would finish a disappointing 8-5.

Still, the fact that 8-5 was disappointing was an incredibly positive sign. The team's primary rival, Florida Atlantic, was wrapping up an 1-11 campaign and looking for a new coach. Hilton was leaving for the pros, sure, but head coach Mario Cristobal was signing quite a few three-star recruits, and the future was still looking bright for a program so moribund as recently as 2007.

Two years later, FAU was 6-6, Louisville and UCF were a combined 24-2, and FIU was 1-11. In 2013, these three teams beat FIU by a combined score of 131-6.

The Golden Panthers lost five games by a touchdown or less in 2012, and with the athletic director already tired of Cristobal's flirtation with other schools, they fired him. They whiffed on hiring Butch Davis and instead replaced Cristobal with former Illinois head coach Ron Turner. And while you never want to render permanent judgments on a coaching hire after just one year (here's where we're legally required to mention that South Carolina went 0-11 in Lou Holtz's first season in 1999, then went 17-7 over the next two years), it's almost impossible for 2013 to have gone any worse for FIU, in terms of on-the-field play, public relations, etc.

In just two years, FIU went from a disappointing 8-5 to a complete catastrophe. By default, it probably won't get worse in 2014, but is there any chance of getting better?

2. Somehow, 2011 New Mexico was worse

In 2013, FIU scored 10 or fewer points eight times and never score more than 24. The Golden Panthers allowed 33 or more points eight times and only once allowed fewer than 23. They averaged better than 4.7 yards per play just once and allowed under 5.5 per play only twice. They gained 27 total yards against Louisville and allowed 558 to Marshall.

FIU's first four games of 2013 were among the worst ever played by an FBS team. In the end, perhaps the biggest surprise of the season was that FIU wasn't the worst team of the F/+ era (2005-13) and almost wasn't even the worst team in 2013. Somehow 2011 New Mexico, with a defense that was even worse than FIU's offense, still manages to squeak out the overall title.

WORST FBS TEAMS ACCORDING TO F/+ (2005-13)
1086. 2011 New Mexico (-44.4%, 1-11)
1085. 2013 FIU (-42.5%, 1-11)
1084. 2013 Eastern Michigan (-42.1%, 2-10)
1083. 2008 Washington State (-37.2%, 2-11)
1082. 2009 Washington State (-37.1%, 1-11)
1081. 2013 Miami (Ohio) (-36.5%, 0-12)
1080. 2010 New Mexico State (-36.3%, 2-10)
1079. 2008 North Texas (-36.0%, 1-11)
1078. 2012 Colorado (-36.0%, 1-11)
1077. 2011 Memphis (-35.9%, 2-10)

Teams that fall this far don't tend to recover under the same coach. That it was only Turner's first year offers some consolation, but not much.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 1-11 | Adj. Record: 0-12 | Final F/+ Rk: 125
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at Maryland	63	10-43	L	8.1 - 43.2	L
6-Sep	Central Florida	21	0-38	L	5.0 - 28.6	L
14-Sep	Bethune-Cookman	N/A	13-34	L	11.9 - 38.1	L
21-Sep	at Louisville	12	0-72	L	(-8.5) - 44.1	L
5-Oct	at Southern Miss	120	24-23	W	21.2 - 27.8	L	-28.8
12-Oct	UAB	115	24-27	L	16.3 - 31.7	L	-24.9
26-Oct	Louisiana Tech	112	7-23	L	11.5 - 25.7	L	-23.0
2-Nov	East Carolina	40	13-34	L	21.2 - 32.0	L	-19.9
9-Nov	at Middle Tennessee	85	0-48	L	21.8 - 41.1	L	-13.3
16-Nov	at UTEP	119	10-33	L	5.5 - 42.6	L	-19.4
23-Nov	Marshall	52	10-48	L	14.6 - 35.4	L	-20.4
29-Nov	at Florida Atlantic	73	6-21	L	9.3 - 39.7	L	-23.7

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-24.0%	124	-13.3%	114	-5.3%	119
Points Per Game	9.8	124	37.0	112
Adj. Points Per Game	11.5	125	35.8	114

3. Never an ounce of hope

It's just piling on at this point, but there's one more thing I have to point out before we move on: FIU's offensive performance against Louisville may have been the single worst FBS offensive performance of the last nine seasons. It's not uncommon for an Adjusted Score to drop into the negative range; teams' single-game S&P+ performances are applied to a general curve reflecting the real scoring curve, and, well, sometimes a single performance is really, really bad. But it takes a lot to get to minus-8.5 adjusted points.

In 43 plays, FIU gained 27 yards. The Panthers attempted 13 passes, completed four for 27 yards and got sacked four times for a loss of 33. FIU's leading rusher carried 14 times for 12 yards. FIU got the ball 13 times, punted 11 times (with nine three-and-outs) and ran out the clock twice. For good measure, they also muffed a punt. This wasn't a turnover-laden disaster ... this was worse. A no-ambition, no-hope experiment in running out the clock from the opening kickoff.

A big, fat minus-8.5 will certainly affect your averages, but FIU's averages were abhorrent even without the Louisville game. Louisville just made it historically bad.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 38.5, FIU 4.1 (minus-34.4)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): Opponent 31.7, FIU 18.4 (minus-13.3)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 3 games): Opponent 39.2, FIU 9.8 (minus-29.4)

There was a bit of a rally in the middle of the season. FIU gained more than 250 yards in a game only four times (!), but three came in a four-game span between October 5 and November 2. FIU was able to knock off Southern Miss and stayed quite competitive against UAB and Louisiana Tech, but the bottom dropped out late. The combined (real) score of the last four games of the season: Opponent 150, FIU 26.

Now, as promised, we move on.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.00	117	IsoPPP+	87.2	123
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	30.5%	124	Succ. Rt. +	70.7	125
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	32.9	109	Def. FP+	93.4	121
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	2.4	125	Redzone S&P+	71.0	121
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.3		ACTUAL	20	+0.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	125	125	126	125
RUSHING	122	126	126	126
PASSING	118	124	122	119
Standard Downs		125	126	96
Passing Downs		125	124	126

Q1 Rk	126	1st Down Rk	126
Q2 Rk	111	2nd Down Rk	124
Q3 Rk	126	3rd Down Rk	126
Q4 Rk	123

4. A slow rebuild

To Ron Turner's credit, he doesn't seem to be panicking after such an awful first year, at least not when it comes to on-field personnel. He shook up his staff quite a bit, and justifiably so; offensive line coach Steve Shankweiler was promoted to offensive coordinator, and new assistants were brought in to coach running backs (Kerry Dixon II from Florida Atlantic), defensive line (Randy Melvin from the Buccaneers), linebackers (Rob Harley from Michigan State), and special teams (Shannon Moore from South Dakota State).

FIU's 2014 recruiting class, however, was entirely focused on high school talent. Turner didn't aim for quick-fix junior college transfers, as did Paul Petrino at Idaho or Bill Clark at UAB. There were no three-star signees this year (according to Rivals) as opposed to previous years, but there were quite a few high-two-star recruits at running back, receiver, offensive line, and linebacker. Sticking with four- or five-year talent means your base of depth and experience can be pretty strong by year three or four. It also means that you're probably not going to be much better in year two. The players who played a major role in last year's struggles will still be the faces of the program in 2014.

There will be a new face at quarterback, however. Primary starter Jake Medlock transferred, leaving the job to probably E.J. Hilliard, who showed decent mobility (5.3 yards per non-sack carry) but struggled in the passing game. He took a sack on almost every five attempts and averaged just 10 yards per completion. He didn't have any help, however. If youngsters can push returnees like Lamarq Caldwell and Silas Spearman III at running back or T.J. Lowder and Clinton Taylor at wideout, that can't be a bad thing. Hell, Hilliard could end up getting a severe push from a freshman like Alex McGough as well.

Overall, the experience level is pretty strong for this offense in 2014; if nothing else, that's a reminder that FIU was quite young last year. Experience will bring at least a little bit of improvement, at least if Shankweiler's scheme fits the personnel to some degree.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Jake Medlock				75	159	922	4	6	47.2%	24	13.1%	4.1
E.J. Hilliard	6'3, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	77	132	775	3	4	58.3%	28	17.5%	3.6
Alex McGough	6'3, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Luke Medlock	6'1, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Lamarq Caldwell	RB	6'0, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	144	542	1	3.8	2.7	32.6%
Silas Spearman III	RB	5'8, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	132	368	4	2.8	3.6	22.0%
Jake Medlock	QB				36	184	0	5.1	2.8	61.1%
Alfonso Randolph	RB	5'11, 185	So.	2 stars (5.2)	26	56	0	2.2	2.1	30.8%
E.J. Hilliard	QB	6'3, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	21	112	0	5.3	4.5	38.1%
Shane Coleman	RB	5'6, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	34	0	3.1	2.1	18.2%
De'Andre Jasper	WR	5'10, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	18	0	1.8	1.3	30.0%
Talir Satterfield-Rowe	RB				10	40	0	4.0	4.0	30.0%
Napoleon Maxwell	RB	6'0, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Alex Gardner	RB	5'9, 183	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
T.J. Lowder	WR	5'11, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	63	24	307	38.1%	22.7%	57.7%	4.9	-85	4.9	35.4
Jonnu Smith	TE	6'2, 225	So.	2 stars (5.2)	53	39	388	73.6%	19.1%	70.3%	7.3	-54	7.2	44.8
Ya'Keem Griner	TE	6'4, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	32	14	158	43.8%	11.5%	58.3%	4.9	-52	6.0	18.2
Clinton Taylor	WR	5'10, 170	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	31	19	238	61.3%	11.2%	60.0%	7.7	2	8.1	27.5
Dominique Rhymes	WR	6'4, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	24	11	134	45.8%	8.6%	61.1%	5.6	-26	4.0	15.5
Glenn Coleman (2012)	WR	6'2, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	22	13	227	59.1%	6.3%	45.5%	10.3	N/A	10.7	N/A
Rockey Vann	WR				18	7	137	38.9%	6.5%	30.8%	7.6	24	10.6	15.8
Lamarq Caldwell	RB	6'0, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	15	13	104	86.7%	5.4%	40.0%	6.9	-33	6.8	12.0
Fred Porter	WR	6'3, 210	Jr.	NR	12	8	92	66.7%	4.3%	37.5%	7.7	-3	5.6	10.6
De'Andre Jasper	WR	5'10, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	7	5	31	71.4%	2.5%	0.0%	4.4	-27	2.7	3.6
Shug Oyegunle	WR	5'9, 185	So.	2 stars (5.3)	7	4	14	57.1%	2.5%	100.0%	2.0	-38	1.7	1.6
Cory White	TE	6'6, 260	Sr.	NR	4	1	15	25.0%	1.4%	100.0%	3.8	-7	4.2	1.7
Silas Spearman III	RB	5'8, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	3	2	35	66.7%	1.1%	0.0%	11.7	11	5.2	4.0
Richard Burrows	WR	6'4, 195	Jr.	NR	1	1	6	100.0%	0.4%	N/A	6.0	-4	0.0	0.7
Jonathan Pavlov	TE	6'4, 235	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Jarviel Hart	WR	5'10, 165	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Dennis Turner	WR	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Chett LeVay	TE	6'3, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	81.8	2.25	2.87	31.2%	58.3%	24.7%	38.9	12.8%	17.8%
Rank	122	125	103	125	107	122	125	126	124

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
David Delsoin	LT	6'6, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	16
Donald Senat	C	6'2, 285	Sr.	NR	14
Jordan Budwig	LG	6'4, 325	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12
Jordan White	RG				12
Aaron Nielsen	RT	6'4, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12
Trenton Saunders	OG	6'4, 275	So.	3 stars (5.5)	3
Dieugot Joseph	LT	6'6, 270	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Delmar Taylor	LG	6'4, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Michael Montero	C	6'2, 285	Sr.	NR	0
Byron Pinkston	RG	6'3, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Yousif Khoury	RT	6'6, 300	Sr.	NR	0
Edens Sineace	OT	6'5, 305	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Chris Flaig	OG	6'5, 304	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Kai Absheer	OL	6'5, 310	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Josh Deuyour	OL	6'9, 325	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Chris Miller	OL	6'3, 285	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. No excuses up front

The offensive line features two seniors and four former three-star recruits. Heading into 2013, FIU returned just nine career starts up front, which helped to produce predictably hopeless results. But of the six players who started a game last year, five are back, and the career starts total has risen to 57. So now there's experience and a potentially high(ish) ceiling. The offensive line absolutely has to become a more reliable presence for the offense this fall.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.30	116	IsoPPP+	90.4	112
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.4%	97	Succ. Rt. +	88.4	103
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.6	79	Off. FP+	96.5	96
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	107	Redzone S&P+	81.3	116
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.7		ACTUAL	13.0	-2.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	94	110	103	89
RUSHING	100	113	111	117
PASSING	54	106	76	39
Standard Downs		116	106	118
Passing Downs		74	66	66

Q1 Rk	111	1st Down Rk	119
Q2 Rk	123	2nd Down Rk	95
Q3 Rk	93	3rd Down Rk	73
Q4 Rk	56

6. The pass defense wasn't too bad!

It was really difficult to find a positive spin for last season's offensive numbers. It's not quite as difficult for the defense. The Golden Panthers certainly struggled to stop the run or leverage opponents into obvious passing situations, but when they got there, they defended the pass and rushed the passer reasonably well.

Granted, only two FIU defenders had more than two sacks, and both are gone. But the secondary looks strong, and there are quite a few former three-star recruits up front. The linebacking corps has a lot of questions to answer, but it's fair to say the defense will come around before the offense does.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.9	2.95	3.94	39.9%	80.6%	18.8%	84.8	3.9%	6.5%
Rank	83	66	118	73	119	69	93	77	70

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Isame Faciane	DT				12	42.5	6.9%	11.5	2.5	0	2	0	0
Greg Hickman	DT				12	37.5	6.0%	9.5	3.0	0	0	3	0
Michael Wakefield	DE	6'3, 245	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	28.5	4.6%	6.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Denzell Perine	DE	6'3, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	26.5	4.3%	2.0	1.5	0	1	0	0
Lars Koht	DT	6'5, 265	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	16.0	2.6%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Giovani Francois	DE	6'2, 255	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	8	14.0	2.3%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Leonard Washington	DT	6'0, 290	So.	2 stars (5.4)	11	9.5	1.5%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darrian Dyson	DT	6'4, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	10	9.5	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Wonderful Monds II	DE	6'0, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Imarjaye Albury	DT	6'0, 295	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Marques Cheeks	DT	6'3, 265	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Jermaine Sheriff	DE	6'2, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. Rebuilding at tackle

Of the 10 linemen listed above, five were three-star recruits (including WVU transfer Imarjaye Albury), and three were high two-stars. There is upside here, and last year's not-completely-awful line stats reflect some of that. FIU was a pushover in short-yardage situations but did a decent job of both getting into the backfield and preventing open-field opportunities. (That FIU's overall rushing stats were a lot worse than its line stats generally suggests some deficiencies at linebacker.)

Upside or not, it's never particularly good to lose both of your starting tackles, especially when they combined for 21 tackles for loss on a team starved for big plays. Five different returnees logged at least 1.5 TFLs in somewhat limited opportunities, and that's encouraging, but Isame Faciane and Greg Hickman were perhaps the defense's two best play-makers, and both are gone.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Markeith Russell	MLB				12	78.5	12.7%	5.5	0.5	0	3	1	0
Luis Rosado	MLB	6'2, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	35.0	5.6%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Derrick Jones, Jr.	OLB				10	26.5	4.3%	2.0	0.0	1	0	1	0
Davison Colimon	OLB	6'1, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	7	19.0	3.1%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Patrick Jean	OLB	6'3, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	9	13.5	2.2%	2.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Treyvon Williams	MLB	5'11, 230	So.	2 stars (5.3)	12	12.0	1.9%	0.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
De'Shawn Hazziez	OLB	6'2, 200	So.	NR	11	10.0	1.6%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Caleb Vincent	OLB	6'2, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	6.0	1.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Gibbs	LB	6'1, 235	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jeremy Derrick	LB	6'2, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Anthony Wint	LB	6'0, 210	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Fred Russ	LB	5'10, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Bobby Stinson	DB	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Tyree Johnson	DB	5'9, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Richard Leonard (2012)	CB	5'9, 170	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	47.0	7.3%	1	0	0	7	0	1
Justin Halley	S	6'3, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	46.0	7.4%	1	0	3	8	2	0
Jordan Davis	S	6'2, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	37.5	6.0%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Randy Harvey	CB	5'8, 170	Sr.	NR	12	36.0	5.8%	0	0	1	4	0	0
Sam Miller	CB				9	28.5	4.6%	3	0	2	4	0	0
Demarkus Perkins	S	6'0, 215	Sr.	NR	8	27.0	4.4%	2	0	0	4	1	0
Wilkenson Myrtil	CB	6'0, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	10	9.5	1.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brad Hyman-Muhammad	CB				7	8.5	1.4%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Sam Gervais	CB	5'10, 185	Sr.	NR	11	6.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Deonte Wilson	S	6'0, 195	So.	3 stars (5.5)	9	6.5	1.0%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Jeremiah McKinnon	CB	6'0, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	5	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Mitch Wozniak	S				9	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Terrance Taylor	S				7	3.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Xavier Hines	CB	5'11, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Vontarius West	S	5'11, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Mark Bruno	DB	5'10, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. A glimmer of hope in the secondary

Richard Leonard was a steady corner for Cristobal's 2012 squad, but he was academically ineligible last fall. His return does lovely things for FIU's depth in the defensive backfield. He and safety Justin Halley are both seniors with ball-hawking tendencies, and of the five DBs who logged at least 10 tackles last year, four return. Plus, last year's star recruits Xavier Hines and Vontarius West could play a role.

If a pair of new starting tackles settles in, and the linebackers play competent ball, the secondary could lead a nice surge in the defensive ratings. But those are two relatively large ifs.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Chris Ayers	6'0, 175	So.	50	35.4	1	21	7	56.0%
Jake Medlock			36	42.6	2	3	11	38.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Austin Taylor	5'8, 160	So.	19	58.4	4	0	21.1%
Sergio Sroka	6'1, 175	So.	16	55.4	0	1	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Austin Taylor	5'8, 160	So.	11-12	5-5	100.0%	3-7	42.9%
Sergio Sroka	6'1, 175	So.	1-1	1-2	50.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Clinton Taylor	KR	5'10, 170	Jr.	14	20.5	0
De'Andre Jasper	KR	5'10, 195	Jr.	8	21.3	0
Sam Miller	PR			8	13.1	0
Clinton Taylor	PR	5'10, 170	Jr.	8	6.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	119
Field Goal Efficiency	68
Punt Return Efficiency	111
Kick Return Efficiency	118
Punt Efficiency	58
Kickoff Efficiency	123
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	25

9. A creative (and effective) punting arrangement

Midway through the 2013 season, quarterback Jake Medlock overtook Chris Ayers on the punting two-deep; he proceeded to bomb away with a 42.6-yard average for the season. Ayers was a fair-catch machine, however, and if he can add a bit more to his average, the punting should be a relatively decent field position weapon again in 2014, even without Medlock. Fellow sophomore Austin Taylor was strong under 40 yards last year as well, so that position isn't a concern.

Of course ... the rest of the special teams unit needs some cleaning up. Touchbacks were non-existent on kickoffs, and the return game was a bit of a disaster. You can mask a lot of deficiencies with solid special teams play, but FIU's special teams unit wasn't nearly good enough overall in 2013.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Bethune-Cookman	NR
6-Sep	Wagner	NR
13-Sep	Pittsburgh	43
20-Sep	Louisville	20
27-Sep	at UAB	115
4-Oct	Florida Atlantic	103
11-Oct	at UTSA	75
18-Oct	Marshall	59
1-Nov	Rice	88
8-Nov	at Old Dominion	NR
15-Nov	Middle Tennessee	99
22-Nov	at North Texas	94

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-16.4% (106)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	99
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-7 / -3.7
TO Luck/Game	-1.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	16 (9, 7)

10. It ... won't get worse?

FIU returns most of last year's first- and second-string, and Ron Turner used a few mulligans by bringing in some new assistants. The schedule features eight home games (a major rarity for mid-major teams) and two FCS opponents (including, yes, the same one that whipped FIU by 21 last year). The table is set for improvement, both for the reasons listed above and for the simple fact that FIU almost literally cannot get worse. The other nine teams on the Worst list atop this piece were all so bad that they had no choice but to improve the next season, and that's certainly what will happen here.

It's hard to get too optimistic, though, isn't it? The Turner hire seemed shaky to start with, and despite the home games and FCS opponents, the schedule still only features five teams projected worse than 100th. FIU could improve rather dramatically and still only rank in the No. 110 range, worse than all but three or four opponents.

Still, two wins and a No. 115 ranking would constitute improvement in 2014, and the team's so young that after returning 16 starters this year, it could return another 14 to 18 in 2015. Improve a little, then improve a little more next year: that has to be the goal. FIU has fallen apart quickly, but there is no quick way to rebound from the level of ineptitude the Golden Panthers showed last fall.