The big 2014 Rice football preview: What do you do for an encore?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. After the peak

Last year, I opened my Rice preview by saying that "Whatever Rice's ceiling is under David Bailiff, we'll probably see it in 2013." The idea was simple; most of the talent responsible for Rice's stunning surge over the last half of 2012 was returning, and a large percentage of that talent was entering its senior season. 2013 was going to represent a peak, and then the Owls would have to undergo a bit of a rebuild.

In a way, however, the rebuild began early. A couple of key seniors missed 2013 (defensive tackle Hosam Shahin left the team, and linebacker Cameron Nwosu was injured), a pair of freshman running backs stole carries from upperclassmen, and we got a bit of an early glimpse of Rice's future. The Owls didn't look quite as good as expected over the season's first month or so, but they ground out a series of close wins -- by four over FAU (a win that would begin to look more impressive as we learned that FAU was pretty good), by three at Tulsa, by six at UTSA -- and as the season went on, they began to look the part of not only a Conference USA contender, but also just a damn solid team.

Rice finished 7-1 in conference and upset Marshall at home in the Conference USA title game to win their first solo conference title since the 1950s.

A year ago, it was rather clear that Rice would be decent in 2013, but the picture got a bit fuzzy after that. Now, things don't seem quite as fuzzy. Sure, the offensive backfield gets younger and thinner, but there is experience at wideout, defensive tackle, linebacker, on the offensive line and in the secondary, and there are more than 25 former three-star recruits littered throughout the roster. Plus, division rivals North Texas and UTSA come to Houston.

I was more confident in last year's squad than this year's, but there is potential here, and the odds of a drop-off are not nearly as strong as they seemed a year ago. Hell of a job, David Bailiff.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-4 | Adj. Record: 6-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 69
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at Texas A&M	23	31-52	L	28.2 - 31.9	L
14-Sep	Kansas	101	23-14	W	21.4 - 25.1	L
21-Sep	vs. Houston	46	26-31	L	32.4 - 32.5	L
28-Sep	Florida Atlantic	73	18-14	W	17.0 - 18.2	L
5-Oct	at Tulsa	94	30-27	W	25.8 - 27.4	L	-2.0
12-Oct	at UTSA	67	27-21	W	26.8 - 24.9	W	-0.9
19-Oct	at New Mexico State	122	45-19	W	24.6 - 24.2	W	-0.1
26-Oct	UTEP	119	45-7	W	30.2 - 30.4	L	-0.1
31-Oct	at North Texas	51	16-28	L	26.7 - 22.8	W	0.9
16-Nov	Louisiana Tech	112	52-14	W	42.6 - 29.3	W	3.9
21-Nov	at UAB	115	37-34	W	19.7 - 23.1	L	2.8
30-Nov	Tulane	70	17-13	W	18.5 - 5.1	W	5.4
7-Dec	Marshall	52	41-24	W	51.0 - 19.5	W	11.7
31-Dec	vs. Mississippi State	33	7-44	L	10.5 - 38.9	L	5.3

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-2.4%	69	-2.3%	75	+1.6%	36
Points Per Game	29.6	61	24.4	42
Adj. Points Per Game	26.8	74	25.2	38

2. Another late-season surge

Granted, the Liberty Bowl performance against Mississippi State -- a 44-7 humbling in which Rice could do nothing to slow down MSU quarterback Dak Prescott and couldn't get any offensive push against the Bulldogs' front seven -- left a different taste in the mouth than a bowl thrashing of Air Force did the year before. But for the second straight season, Rice erupted late in the season. In 2012, the Owls went from 1-5 with a minus-12.0 adjusted scoring margin to 6-1 and minus-1.0. In 2013, the start wasn't nearly as discouraging, and the finish was even better.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Opponent 27.0, Rice 25.0 (minus-2.0)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Rice 27.1, Opponent 25.6 (plus-1.5)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Rice 33.0, Opponent 19.3 (plus-13.7)

Aside from a frustrating, unlucky could-have-gone-very-poorly slog over UAB (UAB recovered all three of the game's fumbles, and Rice missed a field goal at the end of regulation to send the game to overtime), Rice was genuinely awesome down the stretch. The Owls dominated Louisiana Tech, overcame Tulane's stout defense, and exploded against a good Marshall squad to claim the conference title. The offense averaged at least 6.3 yards per play in four of its final seven regular season games, and the defense allowed 4.8 or fewer in four of five. This team came together beautifully ... as long as we don't take that bowl performance too seriously.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.13	68	IsoPPP+	93.4	94
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.1%	77	Succ. Rt. +	95.6	78
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.2	33	Def. FP+	103.4	21
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	44	Redzone S&P+	106.9	36
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.4		ACTUAL	19	-1.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	70	89	79	84
RUSHING	17	79	61	37
PASSING	105	87	103	108
Standard Downs		92	74	115
Passing Downs		78	75	43

Q1 Rk	69	1st Down Rk	94
Q2 Rk	50	2nd Down Rk	44
Q3 Rk	113	3rd Down Rk	105
Q4 Rk	109

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Taylor McHargue				169	324	2345	17	8	52.2%	30	8.5%	6.1
Driphus Jackson	6'0, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	5	16	50	0	1	31.3%	5	23.8%	1.3
Tyler Stehling	6'6, 220	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Nate German	6'2, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)

3. Driphus vs. sample sizes

In two years as Taylor McHargue's backup, Driphus Jackson has posted numbers that almost perfectly personify "young, mobile quarterback learning to pass": low completion rate (52 percent), high sack rate (12 percent), solid non-sack rushing numbers (5.4 yards per carry), plenty of big pass plays (16.4 yards per completion). He looked so good in the Military Bowl against Air Force at the end of 2012 that it was easy to see him potentially passing McHargue in the starting lineup, but that didn't happen.

And not only didn't it happen, Jackson looked mostly awful throwing the ball in minimal backup opportunities. After completing 39 of 69 passes for 670 yards, six scores, and no picks in 2012, he was five-for-16 for 50 and an interception in 2013.

It's easy to overreact to either his stellar freshman numbers or awful sophomore numbers, but averaging them out gives the closest thing to an accurate picture. Jackson was a star recruit for Rice, and if he can throw more like he did in 2012, his ceiling is at least as high as McHargue's. But if he struggles, he could be overtaken by either of two other young, interesting quarterbacks -- sophomore Tyler Stehling or redshirt freshman Nate German. So far, so good for Jackson this spring.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Charles Ross	RB				211	1280	15	6.1	4.7	48.3%
Taylor McHargue	QB				127	641	5	5.0	6.4	36.2%
Jawon Davis	RB	5'7, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	95	476	3	5.0	4.4	36.8%
Darik Dillard	RB	5'10, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	82	396	3	4.8	2.9	42.7%
Turner Petersen	RB				61	262	0	4.3	2.9	39.3%
Luke Turner	RB	6'1, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	38	166	2	4.4	4.0	39.5%
Driphus Jackson	QB	6'0, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	22	179	1	8.1	6.8	54.5%
Darrion Pollard	CB	5'8, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	4	5	1	1.3	N/A	0.0%
Brandon Hamilton	RB	5'11, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Ryan Trauffler	RB	5'9, 180	RSFr.	NR
Austin Walter	RB	5'7, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Samuel Stewart	RB	5'9, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

4. Doing the line some favors

The offense's early mediocrity certainly could have had something to do with the fact that running back Charles Ross was hampered by a knee injury in the early going. He missed the FAU and Tulsa games, and he was limited against Houston and UTSA; it's probably not a coincidence that Rice averaged only 3.8 yards per carry in those games. But in the four games from NMSU to Louisiana Tech, Ross carried 92 times for 635 yards and seven touchdowns (five against Louisiana Tech).

Ross certainly had his explosive moments, especially for a 235-pounder, but his biggest strength was his ability to make his line look pretty good. His Opportunity Rate (the percentage of times a runner gets at least five yards downfield, a.k.a. the instances in which you could generalize that a line did its job) of 48.3 percent was the third-highest for all running backs with at least 200 carries in 2013. Only Carlos Hyde (57.2 percent!) and Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon (53.4 percent) were better in this regard.

Ross' absence isn't particularly exciting, obviously, but it has to be considered encouraging that two smaller freshman backs, Jawon Davis and Darik Dillard, were able to manage an Opportunity Rate of 40 percent in backing up Ross. The explosiveness wasn't really there, but between these two, juniors Luke Turner and Brandon Hamliton, and some solid newcomers, it's certainly fair to think the running back position will be in good shape this fall. And even if there's a dropoff here, the line itself should be able to hold its own with five returnees combining for 92 career starts.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Jordan Taylor	WR	6'5, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	96	55	848	57.3%	29.7%	58.2%	8.8	140	8.9	91.7
Dennis Parks	WR	6'2, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	53	29	508	54.7%	16.4%	43.8%	9.6	126	9.1	55.0
Donte Moore	WR				51	21	305	41.2%	15.8%	47.9%	6.0	-22	6.7	33.0
Turner Petersen	RB				32	26	348	81.3%	9.9%	60.7%	10.9	66	11.2	37.6
Mario Hull	WR	6'1, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	23	12	99	52.2%	7.1%	59.1%	4.3	-63	3.9	10.7
Connor Cella	TE	6'3, 240	So.	2 stars (5.4)	19	13	130	68.4%	5.9%	57.9%	6.8	-23	6.8	14.1
Klein Kubiak	WR				15	7	96	46.7%	4.6%	58.3%	6.4	-5	5.6	10.4
Charles Ross	RB				12	5	37	41.7%	3.7%	58.3%	3.1	-40	2.9	4.0
Andre Gautreaux	WR				8	2	18	25.0%	2.5%	0.0%	2.3	-25	1.6	1.9
Darik Dillard	RB	5'10, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	7	3	38	42.9%	2.2%	60.0%	5.4	-8	8.0	4.1
Derek Brown	WR	6'3, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	2	1	5	50.0%	0.6%	N/A	2.5	-9	0.0	0.5
Robby Wells III	TE	6'6, 235	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Reid Mitchell	TE	6'2, 240	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Zach Wright	WR	6'1, 200	So.	NR
Cole Hunt	TE	6'6, 240	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Aston Walter	WR	5'8, 191	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Temi Alaka	WR	6'2, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Parker Smith	WR	6'2, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. Doing the quarterback some favors

Jackson's certainly a strong runner, and there are enough returning pieces to suggest the running game should hum for much of 2014. But at some point, Jackson will have to pass. Assuming he still takes quite a few sacks -- so many mobile quarterbacks do -- there will need to be plenty of big plays to offset the damage.

It's good news, then, that the top two receivers return, and both are big-play guys. Jordan Taylor and Dennis Parks combined to average 16.1 yards per catch and 9.1 yards per target in 2013, and I'd expect similar numbers this fall. Perhaps the biggest key will be for some possession options to emerge as well. The player with the best catch rate, Turner Petersen, is gone, and Jackson might need some help from the tight end position: sophomore Connor Cella, Reid Mitchell, and Robby Wells III, and redshirt freshman Cole Hunt could come in handy. Cella caught 13 of 19 passes last year, and Hunt and Mitchell are former three-star signees.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.7	3.17	3.14	41.7%	71.9%	16.7%	64.1	6.2%	12.4%
Rank	68	29	77	39	41	29	115	102	121

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Nate Richards	C				27	1st All-CUSA
Jon Hodde	LT				31
Caleb Williams	RT	6'3, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	26
Nico Carlson	LG	6'3, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	25
Drew Carroll	RG	6'4, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	25
Andrew Reue	OL	6'5, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	13
Ian Gray	LT	6'8, 345	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	3
Brandon Dawkins	LT	6'7, 305	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Spencer Stanley	C	6'2, 275	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0
John Poehlmann	RT	6'5, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Kenneth Thompson	LG	6'4, 285	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Trey Martin	C	6'2, 260	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Peter Godber	RG	6'4, 290	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Sam Pierce	OL	6'5, 295	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Cory Klingler	OL	6'4, 298	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Hunter Ponder	OL	6'5, 265	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.20	87	IsoPPP+	93.4	99
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.8%	14	Succ. Rt. +	108.1	32
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.0	48	Off. FP+	101.5	44
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	64	Redzone S&P+	101.2	53
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	26.5		ACTUAL	26.0	-0.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	30	45	32	53
RUSHING	62	41	45	59
PASSING	18	60	18	48
Standard Downs		33	25	79
Passing Downs		73	48	107

Q1 Rk	46	1st Down Rk	44
Q2 Rk	92	2nd Down Rk	49
Q3 Rk	41	3rd Down Rk	76
Q4 Rk	49

6. Nice and aggressive

Even with the losses of Hosam Shahin and Cameron Nwosu before the season, Rice's defense showed significant improvement in 2013, and most of it had to do with rather successful aggression. Rice had a decent 53 non-sack tackles for loss, forced 14 fumbles, and defensed 75 passes (14 interceptions, 61 break-ups). The pass rush was an issue and should be again, but the return of a few active tackles and most of an experienced, deep secondary should come in handy.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.9	2.56	3.76	37.1%	57.8%	19.0%	85.7	3.6%	6.0%
Rank	47	19	107	43	16	65	92	88	83

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Christian Covington	DT	6'3, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	48.5	6.7%	11.5	4.0	0	3	1	1
Cody Bauer	DE				12	30.5	4.2%	11.0	5.5	0	0	1	1
Stuart Mouchantaf	DT	6'4, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	8	26.0	3.6%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tanner Leland	DE				13	23.0	3.2%	5.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Ross Winship	NT	6'4, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	16.5	2.3%	1.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Dylan Klare	DT	6'2, 270	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	15.0	2.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Zach Patt	DE	6'2, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	14	14.5	2.0%	3.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Josh Skinner	DE				13	14.0	1.9%	2.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Brian Nordstrom	DE	6'3, 230	Jr.	NR	14	10.0	1.4%	1.5	1.5	0	2	1	0
Derek Brown	DE	6'3, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	5.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cody Henessee	NT	6'2, 265	So.	3 stars (5.5)	8	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Trevor Gillette	DE				9	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Trevor Jones	DE	6'5, 265	Sr.	NR
Grant Peterson	DE	6'6, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Brian Womac	DE	6'3, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Graysen Schantz	DE	6'2, 235	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Parker Hanusa	DE	6'4, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Brad Luvender	NT	6'3, 250	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. The pass rush was already shaky

Rice showed some aggressive potential at defensive tackle, and linebacker Michael Kutzler will be missed, but the end position left something to be desired. Cody Bauer recorded a strong 5.5 sacks in 2013, but the rest of the ends combined for only five more, and Rice ranked worse than 80th in sack rate on both standard downs and passing downs.

And now Bauer's gone. Rice is loaded at tackle with the return of its top four (three of whom were three-star recruits), including Christian Covington, but the end position is devoid of any sort of experience or proven production. Brian Nordstrom showed potential with 1.5 sacks and two pass break-ups in reserve time, but that's not much to bank on. Some newcomers to the rotation will have to hold their own if Rice's ends are to draw attention away from its solid tackles.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Michael Kutzler	SLB				14	74.0	10.2%	7.0	2.0	1	1	1	0
James Radcliffe	WLB	6'1, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	47.0	6.5%	1.5	1.0	0	4	2	0
Nick Elder	WLB	6'0, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	24.0	3.3%	1.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Alex Lyons	SLB	6'0, 220	So.	3 stars (5.5)	14	23.0	3.2%	2.0	0.0	0	0	1	1
Chandler Watkins	SLB	6'0, 215	So.	NR	10	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tabari McGaskey	WLB	6'0, 220	So.	2 stars (5.4)	7	2.0	0.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
DJ Green	LB	6'2, 220	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Nick Uretsky	SLB	6'0, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Paul Porras	KAT				14	63.0	8.7%	3	0	0	6	1	0
Julius White	FS	5'10, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	52.5	7.3%	2.5	0	2	9	0	0
Malcolm Hill	SS	5'11, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	14	37.5	5.2%	3.5	0	3	8	0	0
Bryce Callahan	CB	5'10, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	30.0	4.1%	3	0	3	10	1	0
Phillip Gaines	CB				13	30.0	4.1%	4	0	4	9	0	0
Gabe Baker	SS	6'1, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	14	29.5	4.1%	2.5	0	0	2	1	0
Jaylon Finner	KAT	5'10, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	14	23.5	3.2%	0.5	0	0	2	1	0
Garrett Fuhrman	FS	5'8, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	14	12.5	1.7%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Pollard	CB	5'8, 165	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	14	10.5	1.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alex Francis	CB				14	9.0	1.2%	1	0	0	0	1	0
Corey Frazier	S				2	7.0	1.0%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Anthony Canady	CB	5'9, 170	So.	3 stars (5.5)	9	6.0	0.8%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Broderick Jackson	SS				12	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Zach Espinosa	FS	6'2, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Austin Laudeschlager	KAT	6'0, 195	Jr.	NR
J.T. Blassingame	CB	5'8, 170	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Cole Thomas	FS	6'2, 195	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
V.J. Banks	S	6'2, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
J.T. Ibe	S	6'0, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. Upside in the back

Even without a decent pass rush, Rice's secondary made all sorts of plays in 2013. Five defensive backs defensed at least six passes, and three of them are back. Paul Porras and Phillip Gaines could be missed, but in safeties Julius White and Malcolm Hill and corner Bryce Callahan, there's a strong base of talent here. Plus, Gabe Baker is aggressive and solid as well. If the Owls can find a decent cornerback to line up opposite Callahan, this unit should be just as successful as last year.

The talent fit the scheme in 2013. The tackles were able to hold their own, which is incredibly important in a 4-2-5 scheme that sacrifices size for speed. The pass rush will still leave something to be desired, but the key components in the middle -- the tackles, linebacker James Radcliffe, and three strong safeties -- should assure that this defense doesn't fall too far.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
James Farrimond	6'0, 210	Jr.	71	42.1	7	17	15	45.1%
Luke Turner	6'1, 230	Jr.	6	36.5	1	0	3	50.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Chris Boswell			79	64.2	57	1	72.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Chris Boswell			47-49	6-6	100.0%	8-15	53.3%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Malcolm Hill	KR	5'11, 190	Jr.	11	21.5	0
Darrion Pollard	KR	5'8, 175	So.	8	18.9	0
Bryce Callahan	PR	5'10, 180	Sr.	18	6.3	0
Klein Kubiak	PR			2	6.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	36
Field Goal Efficiency	39
Punt Return Efficiency	90
Kick Return Efficiency	68
Punt Efficiency	43
Kickoff Efficiency	8
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	16

9. Dominating field position

In both of the Five Factors boxes above, Rice's field position numbers were either the best (offense) or second-best (defense) of the bunch. The aggressive defense forced three-and-outs and turnovers, the offense was able to remain reasonably efficient, and the kick-and-return games were strong. Chris Boswell had a cannon for a kickoffs leg, and he will be difficult to replace, but at the very least a strong punter in James Farrimond returns. And while the return games were only average-at-best, the relevant return men do return.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	at Notre Dame	17
13-Sep	at Texas A&M	7
20-Sep	Old Dominion	NR
27-Sep	at Southern Miss	110
4-Oct	Hawaii	93
11-Oct	at Army	101
25-Oct	North Texas	94
1-Nov	at Florida International	119
8-Nov	UTSA	75
15-Nov	at Marshall	59
21-Nov	UTEP	117
29-Nov	at Louisiana Tech	98

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-15.7% (103)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	92
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	7 / 6.0
TO Luck/Game	+0.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (6, 7)

10. Survive September

Fortunes are not supposed to change quickly in college football. Most of the current great programs were also great 20 or 30 years ago. But this rule evidently doesn't apply to Conference USA. Southern Miss ended an 18-year streak of winning records by going 1-23 in 2012-13. Tulsa just went from 11 wins to three. Marshall went from five wins to 10, North Texas from four to nine. UTSA didn't exist three years ago but went 7-5 last year.

Rice, of course, has a hell of a story of its own. The Owls went 10-3 in 2008, then went 10-26 over the next three years. A 2-6 start to 2012 all but doomed the David Bailiff era, but the Owls have gone 15-4 since. It is difficult to project success or failure with any sort of confidence, but it does feel like this Rice program is on more solid footing than I feared it would be following the departure of Taylor McHargue, Charles Ross, and others. The offensive identity will be based more on speed than size, and the defense could still struggle to rush the passer, but if Driphus Jackson is able to raise his game (or if one of the young other quarterbacks can pass him), then Rice looks to be a contender for its second straight conference title.

The key, then, will simply be surviving September. The season begins with trips to Notre Dame and Texas A&M, two projected top-20 teams, and a likely 0-2 start. Eight of the final 10 opponents are projected 90th or worse, and if Rice can play like a top-80 team (not out of the question), the Owls could potentially expect a 6-2 record or so. Survive September with confidence, and Bailiff's squad could rack up a third consecutive winning season for the first time since 1948-50.