The big 2014 MTSU football preview: Blue Raiders have two questions

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1. Another ascent is complete

In the business of coaching, you rarely get a chance to rebound at the same school at which you collapsed.

Rick Stockstill, head coach at MTSU since 2006, had led the Blue Raiders to their first three bowls in 2006, 2009, and 2010 and even had them earning poll votes after a 10-3 campaign in 2009.

But the win total fell from 10 in 2009, to six in 2010, to two in 2011. He probably needed a big season in 2012 to avoid the reaper in Murfreesboro, and with some luck, he got it. The Blue Raiders lost to McNeese State but whipped Georgia Tech and went 4-1 in one-possession games; they went 8-4 even though they didn't actually improve that much. And in 2013, they improved a bit more and won another eight games despite moving to a (marginally) more difficult conference.

Last fall, MTSU ranked 85th in the F/+ rankings, the second-best F/+ finish in Stockstill's tenure. The season ended with a dud of a bowl performance against Navy, one remembered more for the cheap shots an MTSU player delivered than anything else. But after teetering on the brink of collapse, the program has pulled off the rare re-ascension.

So what now? Longtime starting quarterback Logan Kilgore is gone, as are his top two receivers, and four offensive linemen with starting experience. The defense is experienced and could easily be the best MTSU has fielded since at least 2010, but will that matter if a new offensive identity lags?

Stockstill has faced bigger challenges than the ones he will face in 2014, but there are certainly questions for the Blue Raiders to answer.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 4-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 85
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	Western Carolina	N/A	45-24	W	20.6 - 49.6	L
7-Sep	at North Carolina	38	20-40	L	28.2 - 33.8	L
14-Sep	Memphis	83	17-15	W	22.3 - 28.0	L
21-Sep	at Florida Atlantic	73	42-35	W	45.1 - 35.2	W
27-Sep	at BYU	30	10-37	L	10.8 - 35.8	L	-11.1
5-Oct	East Carolina	40	17-24	L	32.2 - 25.5	W	-3.9
12-Oct	at North Texas	51	7-34	L	17.0 - 29.4	L	-5.3
24-Oct	Marshall	52	51-49	W	39.1 - 23.9	W	-1.1
2-Nov	at UAB	115	24-21	W	24.4 - 27.2	L	-3.6
9-Nov	Florida International	125	48-0	W	33.3 - 43.7	L	-0.7
23-Nov	at Southern Miss	120	42-21	W	27.8 - 32.1	L	-3.0
30-Nov	UTEP	119	48-17	W	34.7 - 27.2	W	1.0
30-Dec	vs. Navy	58	6-24	L	23.3 - 27.4	L	-2.8

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-4.9%	79	-4.5%	84	-0.4%	80
Points Per Game	29.0	67	26.2	61
Adj. Points Per Game	27.6	72	32.2	101

2. A last-second catalyst

Saying a single game or a single moment turned a season around is typically nothing more than a hindsight exercise. We don't know for sure that anything has changed in the present tense, but looking back, we can do some pinpointing.

That said, MTSU's 51-49 win over Marshall on a Thursday night in late-October turned the Blue Raiders' 2013 season around.

It came after three consecutive losses, two by 27 points. The Blue Raiders had fallen to 3-4 overall, and while the schedule was certainly going to ease up in November, a 1-3 start to conference play would have knocked them far enough down the Conference USA totem pole that a bowl bid would have become rather unlikely. They really needed this one. And they needed a whole 60 minutes to get it.

The first three quarters were back-and-forth. On three occasions, MTSU held a seven-point lead, and on all three occasions Marshall responded to tie the game. It was tied at 7-7, 14-14, 21-21, and 28-28, but the Blue Raiders took leads of 38-25 and 45-35 in the final 20 minutes. The Thundering Herd responded with two touchdown runs, one with eight minutes left and one with 2:30 left, to take a 49-45 lead, only their second lead of the game.

MTSU's game-winning drive seemed doomed on a few different occasions. Logan Kilgore found Tavarres Jefferson for 24 yards on third-and-12 from the MTSU 19, then found him for another 14 yards. The two connected on third-and-4 to keep the drive alive, then connected AGAIN on fourth-and-5 from the Marshall 27. With eight seconds left, Kilgore threw incomplete to Terry Pettis, but on the game's final play, he once again looked to Jefferson for the touchdown.

From a 3-4 start, MTSU finished 5-0, raising its quality of play by almost 10 adjusted points per game.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 7 games): Opponent 33.9, MTSU 25.2 (minus-8.7)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): MTSU 31.9, Opponent 30.8 (plus-1.1)

Hindsight, sure. But that's a turning point.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.11	80	IsoPPP+	97.0	81
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.6%	68	Succ. Rt. +	97.4	70
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.5	59	Def. FP+	99.4	66
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	70	Redzone S&P+	92.7	89
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.4		ACTUAL	22	+1.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	67	72	71	82
RUSHING	33	56	59	64
PASSING	87	86	79	83
Standard Downs		70	79	81
Passing Downs		68	60	66

Q1 Rk	65	1st Down Rk	89
Q2 Rk	110	2nd Down Rk	70
Q3 Rk	66	3rd Down Rk	57
Q4 Rk	55

3. A QB system

Some offensive systems are designed to protect a quarterback. Maybe you steal yards by throwing on first-and-10 to set up easy running situations; maybe you run a lot on third-and-8 to protect him (and yourself) from disaster.

Other systems, however, go in the opposite direction. Stockstill and offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner lean heavily on the quarterback position. At least, they did with Logan Kilgore behind center. The three-year starter was asked to hand off on most standard downs and throw on most passing downs; this does no favors to a quarterback's stat line, but Kilgore still completed 61 percent of his passes with minimal sacks. He was interception-prone -- 36 for his career -- but MTSU's offense was perfectly decent with him in charge, even considering the degree of difficulty.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Logan Kilgore				216	355	2507	16	13	60.8%	13	3.5%	6.6
Austin Grammer	6'2, 212	So.	3 stars (5.5)	21	45	190	1	2	46.7%	4	8.2%	3.6
A.J. Erdely	6'3, 207	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Brent Stockstill	6'0, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

4. So is there a QB?

And does he have a line?

Those two questions will basically decide MTSU's season. This spring, three quarterbacks seem to be on even footing. Last year's backup, Austin Grammer, showed lovely potential with his legs, rushing for more than six yards per carry (non-sacks) and rushing for 106 yards against North Texas. But his passing left something to be desired, to put it kindly. Big-armed redshirt freshman A.J. Erdely and grayshirt (and coach's son) Brent Stockstill are also fighting for the job. Stockstill is, perhaps not surprisingly, said to have the best grasp of the offense; in a system that requires lots of quick passing and strong decision-making, perhaps that gives him the edge. Or perhaps Grammer's struggles over 49 pass attempts were too small a sample, and he has the overall skill set to take the job in an interesting direction.

Regardless, someone will need to play competent ball at this position.

Meanwhile, the line has some serious restructuring to undergo on the interior. Tackles Darius Johnson and Isaiah Anderson are back, but the three middle spots are all looking for new starters. MTSU was 41st in Adj. Line Yards and 13th in Adj. Sack Rate; the sack rate was aided by quick passing, but these are still strong numbers, and it will be interesting to see how a trio of sophomores and likely new starters (Josh Chester, Daniel Stephens, Adam Stickel) perform.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Jordan Parker	RB	6'1, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	146	731	6	5.0	5.4	35.6%
Reggie Whatley	RB	5'7, 171	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	101	657	3	6.5	7.1	40.6%
Jeremiah Bryson	RB	5'8, 184	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	82	398	3	4.9	4.4	37.8%
Shane Tucker	RB	6'0, 210	So.	3 stars (5.5)	44	241	5	5.5	5.3	38.6%
Austin Grammer	QB	6'2, 212	So.	3 stars (5.5)	30	183	2	6.1	5.5	46.7%
Corey Carmichael	FB				29	149	2	5.1	9.5	24.1%
Drayton Calhoun	CB				27	83	0	3.1	2.8	25.9%
Logan Kilgore	QB				22	96	2	4.4	2.2	45.5%
William Pratcher	RB				21	110	2	5.2	6.3	33.3%
Kamani Thomas	RB	5'9, 202	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
J'Vonte Herrod	RB	5'11, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Tavarres Jefferson	WR-Y				77	46	611	59.7%	20.3%	44.3%	7.9	32	8.2	68.4
Kyle Griswould	WR-Z				74	45	465	60.8%	19.5%	54.0%	6.3	-96	5.3	52.0
Marcus Henry	WR-H	6'0, 184	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	57	38	549	66.7%	15.0%	45.8%	9.6	97	10.1	61.4
Devin Clarke	WR-Z	5'11, 160	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	34	18	318	52.9%	9.0%	48.1%	9.4	76	9.8	35.6
Christian Collis	WR-X	6'0, 208	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	32	18	228	56.3%	8.4%	50.0%	7.1	-6	7.0	25.5
Chris Perkins	WR-X	6'3, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	21	13	123	61.9%	5.5%	50.0%	5.9	-38	7.0	13.8
Terry Pettis	WR-Y	6'5, 221	So.	2 stars (5.2)	19	9	122	47.4%	5.0%	13.3%	6.4	-7	5.8	13.7
Jordan Parker	RB	6'1, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	17	14	31	82.4%	4.5%	0.0%	1.8	-120	1.0	3.5
Jeremiah Bryson	RB	5'8, 184	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	16	13	69	81.3%	4.2%	30.8%	4.3	-72	5.1	7.7
Jacob Corbaley	TE				11	9	89	81.8%	2.9%	100.0%	8.1	-8	4.4	10.0
Reggie Whatley	RB	5'7, 171	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	9	5	5	55.6%	2.4%	55.6%	0.6	-60	0.6	0.6
Demetrius Frazier	WR-H	5'10, 201	So.	3 stars (5.6)	7	5	74	71.4%	1.8%	66.7%	10.6	16	6.9	8.3
Ed'Marques Batties	WR-Y	6'0, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jevontey Smith	WR-X	6'3, 195	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Tristan Walker	WR-H	5'9, 160	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Shannon Smith	WR-Z	6'2, 200	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Tyler Barron	TE	6'4, 238	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Max Linder	TE	6'3, 237	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. Plenty of explosiveness to go around

None of this really matters without a decent quarterback, but the Blue Raiders will certainly have their share of exciting skill position performers, especially at the running back position. Four exciting backs (of all shapes and sizes) return; all four had an opportunity rate (carries that went at least five yards) of at least 38 percent, and three of the four finished with an average of 5.3 highlight yards (the yards you get after the first five) per opportunity. Big Jordan Parker rushed for at least 100 yards in four games last year, explosive Reggie Whatley did so three times, and Jeremiah Bryson and Shane Tucker each did so once. If Grammer wins the starting quarterback job, MTSU will have one of the deepest, most exciting running games in the mid-major universe (if the line is decent, of course).

Depending on who emerges at wideout, it might not be a bad idea to go even heavier on the run. Tavarres Jefferson was steady with solid upside, and Kyle Griswould was a decent possession receiver. Marcus Henry and Devin Clarke, last year's No. 3 and 4 receivers, were quite explosive (15.5 yards per catch between the two of them) and could certainly be useful in play-action situations; we'll see what happens to their averages when they are given more targets. Junior college transfer Ed'Marques Battle and three redshirt freshmen should threaten to see plenty of targets as well.

There is a lot of potential on this offense, but potential has to turn into production quickly, especially at quarterback.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	106.7	3.17	3.67	37.2%	64.3%	18.0%	157.7	3.7%	3.3%
Rank	41	29	28	86	89	48	13	40	11

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Josh Walker	LG				34	2nd All-CUSA
Darius Johnson	LT	6'3, 293	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	25
Isaiah Anderson	RT	6'4, 275	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	25
Jadareius Hamlin	RG				19
Nick Nunez	C				8
Jesse Grisham	LT				6
Josh Chester	C	6'3, 298	So.	2 stars (5.2)	3
Daniel Stephens	RG	6'2, 295	So.	2 stars (5.2)	2
Adam Stickel	LG	6'5, 291	So.	2 stars (5.2)	1
Patrick Hughes	C	6'4, 292	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	1
Hunter Rogers	RT	6'7, 313	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Jaylen Hunter	RT	6'4, 269	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Dalton Ownby	RG	6'3, 285	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Conner Trent	RT	6'5, 311	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
David Adams	OL	6'3, 282	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Maurquice Shakir	LT	6'3, 313	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.96	3	IsoPPP+	113.0	13
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.6%	101	Succ. Rt. +	83.9	114
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.8	74	Off. FP+	98.5	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	47	Redzone S&P+	84.4	107
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.8		ACTUAL	33.0	+7.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	64	99	114	90
RUSHING	96	102	115	102
PASSING	19	97	107	71
Standard Downs		95	117	7
Passing Downs		99	96	85

Q1 Rk	103	1st Down Rk	83
Q2 Rk	103	2nd Down Rk	115
Q3 Rk	94	3rd Down Rk	100
Q4 Rk	93

6. Bend ... bend ... bend...

Success Rate is basically an on-base percentage for football, a way to track efficiency play-for-play. IsoPPP, meanwhile, basically looks at the magnitude of the successful plays. Using these two measures, it's pretty easy to spot a bend-don't-break defense -- if your success rates were poor but your IsoPPP was strong, you were playing a conservative defense, sacrificing six-yard gains to prevent 60-yarders.

Perhaps no defense in the country utilized this style more than MTSU, which ranked 114th in Success Rate+ and 13th in IsoPPP+. The Blue Raiders attempted to raise the aggressiveness on passing downs (the result: a strong pass rush and a few big plays allowed), but conservatism was the goal early in the typical set of downs.

This approach paid off. Middle Tennessee's defense certainly wasn't good by any objective measure, but it was significantly better; the Blue Raiders ranked 116th in Def. F/+ in 2011 and 114th in 2013 but improved to 84th last fall. There are a couple of key holes to fill, but the depth here should ensure another decent showing and perhaps a little bit more improvement.

That said, a few more stops near the line on standard downs wouldn't be the worst idea in the world.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	90.4	3.24	3.46	39.7%	79.0%	13.7%	105.2	4.8%	8.8%
Rank	105	100	79	70	113	122	52	53	25

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Patrick McNeil	DT	6'1, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	27.0	3.3%	2.5	2.0	0	0	1	0
Alexandro Antoine	DE	6'1, 244	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	22.5	2.7%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Jimmy Staten	DT				12	22.0	2.7%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Jimal McBride	DT	6'2, 281	So.	2 stars (5.2)	9	22.0	2.7%	5.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Shaquille Huff	DT	6'1, 294	So.	2 stars (5.4)	13	21.0	2.5%	7.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Shubert Bastien	DE	6'5, 246	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	17.5	2.1%	2.0	1.5	0	0	1	0
Dearco Nolan	DE				10	17.0	2.0%	4.0	3.0	0	0	3	0
Jiajuan Fennell	DE	6'3, 260	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	15.0	1.8%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Chris Hale	DE	6'4, 253	So.	2 stars (5.2)	9	9.0	1.1%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Steven Rhodes	DE	6'3, 240	So.	NR	13	8.5	1.0%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Derious Bennett	DT	6'1, 305	So.	NR	11	7.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Raynard Felton	DE	6'4, 275	So.	2 stars (5.4)	3	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
O'Shae Bridges	DT	6'2, 259	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jahmal Jones	DE	6'3, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Ismael Aurismond	DE	6'3, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Todney Evans	DE	6'3, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)

7. A stellar pass rush, but...

When passing downs did come around, defensive co-coordinators Tyrone Nix and Steve Ellis were solid at varying and disguising their attacks. Only three Blue Raiders had more than two sacks last fall, but eight had at least 1.5, and seven of those eight return in 2014.

Of course, you can generate more pass rush opportunities if you have a prayer of stopping the run. MTSU did not last fall. The Blue Raiders ranked 102nd in Rushing S&P+, 105th in Adj. Line Yards, and 122nd in Stuff Rate (run stops behind the line). Lineback T.T. Barber had 8.5 non-sack tackles for loss, and tackles Jimal McBride and Shaquille Huff combined for 8.5 as freshmen, but that was about it. The ends provided minimal run support.

From a play-making perspective, MTSU is loaded at tackle with Patrick McNeil and the sophomore combo of McBride and Huff. But there's nothing saying you won't once again be able to push around MTSU's ends again.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
T.T. Barber	WILL	6'1, 216	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	96.0	11.6%	11.5	3.0	3	2	3	1
Christian Henry	MIKE	6'0, 224	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	64.0	7.7%	1.5	1.0	0	1	2	0
Stephen Roberts	SAM				13	56.5	6.8%	4.0	1.0	2	1	3	1
Roderic Blunt	MIKE				13	43.5	5.2%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
James Roberson	SAM	6'0, 207	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	30.0	3.6%	3.0	0.0	0	2	2	0
Leighton Gasque	SAM	6'2, 208	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	21.0	2.5%	7.0	5.0	0	0	1	0
Ykeem Wells	WILL	6'0, 236	Jr.	2 stars (N/A)	13	10.5	1.3%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Anfornee Stewart	WILL	6'1, 214	So.	2 stars (5.4)	6	8.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	2	1	0
Iman Smith	MIKE	6'1, 217	So.	2 stars (5.4)	7	4.0	0.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Veion Robinson	WILL	6'2, 200	So.	2 stars (5.3)	13	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cavellis Luckett	MIKE	6'0, 244	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Quay Watt	SAM	6'0, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Matthew Foster	DE	6'3, 235	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Darrius Liggins	DE	6'4, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. An all-around star (T.T. Barber)

MTSU returns three potentially strong defensive tackles, a star blitzer in linebacker Leighton Gasque, and one of the nation's better ball hawks in safety Kevin Byard.

But the unquestioned star of this defense has to be box score-filler T.T. Barber at weakside linebacker. As a sophomore, Barber led the team in tackles and tackles for loss, recorded three sacks, defensed five passes (three picks, two break-ups), and forced three fumbles. In 2013, linebacker Roderic Blunt made a bit of a name for himself with his out-of-control play against Navy, which was a shame, both because that didn't necessarily reflect his normal character (he issued a public apology after the game), and because Barber is the MTSU linebacker casual fans should know. Perhaps that will change in 2014.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kevin Byard	SS	5'11, 216	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	83.5	10.1%	1	0	5	5	1	0
Xavier Walker	FS	6'4, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	45.5	5.5%	0	0	1	3	2	0
Kenneth Gilstrap	CB				13	41.0	4.9%	4	1	1	7	1	1
Jared Singletary	CB	5'8, 168	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	28.0	3.4%	2	2	1	0	0	1
Sammy Seamster	CB				13	27.5	3.3%	0	0	1	1	2	0
Chris Brown	SS	6'1, 179	So.	2 stars (5.4)	13	12.5	1.5%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Reginald Farmer	SS				9	12.0	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Khari Burke	CB	5'8, 174	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	9.0	1.1%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Chris Sharpe	CB	5'11, 183	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	6.5	0.8%	1.5	1	1	1	0	0
Shon Akins	CB	5'9, 170	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Richie Bisaccia	SS	6'0, 185	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Patrick Martin	S	6'1, 211	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Trey Wafford	FS	5'10, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jamarcus Howard	CB	5'11, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jordan Frost-Dixon	CB	5'11, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)

9. A little bit of injuries luck

One thing that does bear mentioning here: MTSU didn't suffer too many injuries on defense. That alone could have accounted for part of the Blue Raiders' improvement. Sure, there were injuries here and there -- Jimal McBride missed four games, pass rusher Dearco Nolan missed three, etc. -- but compared to the norm, MTSU escaped relatively unscathed. Five regulars on the line played in all 13 games, along with the top seven linebackers and the top five defensive backs. There's nothing saying this can't happen again in 2014, but injuries luck certainly evens out over time, and the injury bug was relatively kind to MTSU last fall.

And if the bug bites the MTSU secondary in particular, things could get dicey. MTSU must replace two of its top three corners, including the aggressive Kenneth Gilstrap, and while Stockstill has had quite a bit of recruiting success here -- of the 12 players listed above, seven are former three-star recruits, and two more were high-two-stars -- but experience is minimal.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Josh Davis			65	41.8	6	10	20	46.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Canon Rooker	5'11, 169	So.	70	60.1	23	0	32.9%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Cody Clark	6'1, 180	So.	46-46	9-11	81.8%	3-5	60.0%
Canon Rooker	5'11, 169	So.	1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Reggie Whatley	KR	5'7, 171	Sr.	17	24.7	0
Kenneth Gilstrap	KR			15	20.5	0
Kyle Griswould	PR			17	6.1	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	80
Field Goal Efficiency	76
Punt Return Efficiency	37
Kick Return Efficiency	76
Punt Efficiency	63
Kickoff Efficiency	95
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	48

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Savannah State	NR
6-Sep	at Minnesota	65
13-Sep	Western Kentucky	91
20-Sep	at Memphis	95
26-Sep	at Old Dominion	NR
4-Oct	Southern Miss	110
11-Oct	at Marshall	59
18-Oct	UAB	115
1-Nov	BYU	32
15-Nov	at Florida International	119
22-Nov	Florida Atlantic	103
29-Nov	at UTEP	117

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-14.4% (101)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	89
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	11 / 5.4
TO Luck/Game	+2.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (5, 8)

10. One major, obvious question mark

Following a disastrous 2011 season, Rick Stockstill has won 16 games in two years, and his MTSU program immediately established itself as a solid program in Conference USA. This is an impressive accomplishment, but Stockstill doesn't appear to be standing still. He signed eight junior college transfers, including four defensive backs and two offensive linemen. He's got a strong habit of redshirting and developing five-year players, but he certainly doesn't appear willing to forego the 2014 season for future development.

If a quarterback emerges and the offensive line doesn't stink, there are certainly wins to be found. Seven of MTSU's 12 opponents this fall are projected 100th or worse. Five of six home games are winnable (six if you don't think much of BYU), and of the road games, perhaps only Marshall and Minnesota are out of reach.

This could easily shape up as another eight-win season in Murfreesboro if the quarterback position is sound. If, if, if.