The big 2014 WKU football preview: Upward trajectory, post-Petrino?

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1. Getting exactly what you expect

[Petrino] really is a lovely hire for WKU, even if he leaves for the first SEC offer that comes his way (perhaps as soon as December). Even if he just stays for one year, he will probably win games and serve as a positive influence on WKU quarterbacks. When you hire Petrino, you better have a backup plan in place (and WKU has at least 10 months to figure that one out), but he can still be a tremendous success in the short-term.

In last year's WKU preview, I professed appreciation for the Hilltoppers hiring Bobby Petrino as basically a minor-league rehabilitation stint before he inevitably (and quickly) left for a major-conference program. Granted, I didn't have any idea that he would end up back at Louisville, a program he cheated on and broke up with less than a decade ago, but I still liked the idea of a Petrino rental as long as WKU had a plan in place to succeed him.

Sure enough, Petrino stayed for one season, won his eight games, kept the program on (increasingly) steady footing, built something decent out of the WKU offense (especially after the first month), and left. And sure enough, WKU had his successor ready to go.

2. A ready-made résumé

You do have to figure WKU administrators were a little bit nervous. The Hilltoppers had offensive coordinator Jeff Brohm lined up as Petrino's successor when Petrino quickly left Bowling Green, but when Petrino indeed took the Louisville job, it had to be tempting for Brohm to go with him. Brohm played at Louisville, and going with Petrino could mean that, if or when the mentor left for yet another job, Brohm could be in line for the head gig at the alma mater.

In the end, however, Brohm stayed at WKU. That's good news for WKU, as his résumé comes straight out of central casting: four years as a Louisville quarterback (team MVP in 1992 and 1993), one as head coach of the Louisville Fire arena football team, four as Louisville's quarterbacks coach (under Petrino), one as Louisville's passing game coordinator, one as Louisville's offensive coordinator. The first seven years of Brohm's coaching career were all based in Kentucky. After three years away (two at Illinois with Paul Petrino, one at UAB with former Petrino assistant Garrick McGee), Brohm came back to the Bluegrass State to serve as Petrino's offensive coordinator at WKU.

This seems just about perfect on paper, and while a lot of good-looking hires end up failing, one has to figure the odds are good that Brohm can sustain most of WKU's recent momentum as a program. After winning just four total games from 2008-10, the Hilltoppers have won at least seven in each of the last three seasons. In terms of F/+ rankings, WKU improved for three straight years, then at least held steady after a coaching change in 2013.

Long-term, Brohm could be a pretty strong hire. But he has some work to do in 2013 if he wants to avoid some temporary regression. WKU has a lot of key pieces to replace.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-4 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 77
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Kentucky	97	35-26	W	36.5 - 39.9	L
7-Sep	at Tennessee	72	20-52	L	23.9 - 43.6	L
14-Sep	at South Alabama	68	24-31	L	32.9 - 33.2	L
21-Sep	Morgan State	N/A	58-17	W	34.8 - 43.9	L
28-Sep	Navy	58	19-7	W	25.8 - 10.3	W	-3.4
3-Oct	at UL-Monroe	109	31-10	W	40.9 - 29.8	W	-0.5
15-Oct	UL-Lafayette	86	20-37	L	38.0 - 26.8	W	5.7
26-Oct	Troy	105	26-32	L	28.4 - 29.4	L	5.5
2-Nov	at Georgia State	121	44-28	W	29.3 - 38.1	L	5.6
9-Nov	at Army	100	21-17	W	22.8 - 27.1	L	1.6
23-Nov	at Texas State	107	38-7	W	34.8 - 7.3	W	4.9
30-Nov	Arkansas State	90	34-31	W	35.5 - 24.2	W	4.9

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-5.5%	82	-1.8%	73	+0.5%	54
Points Per Game	30.8	52	24.6	44
Adj. Points Per Game	32.0	41	29.5	80

3. The proverbial light bulb

WKU didn't exactly start the 2013 season on fire. The Hilltoppers took down Kentucky in the season opener, and taking down an SEC team is never an insignificant accomplishment, even if the team you're conquering is a Kentucky team in serious transition. But the defense was incredibly shaky over the season's first four games, and the offense was both prolific and problematic. In his first three games as WKU's starting quarterback, Brandon Doughty threw eight interceptions -- five against Tennessee and another three against South Alabama. After completing 79 percent of his passes against Kentucky, he completed just 54 percent against UT and USA.

Meanwhile, the defense was atrocious, allowing 6.4 yards per play in the first three games, then allowing 5.1 to Morgan State.

As is often the case with a new coaching regime (and a rather significant shift in philosophy from Willie Taggart's Stanford-esque style to Petrino's), however, the lightbulb came on after a while.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 40.2, WKU 32.0 (minus-8.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 8 games): WKU 31.9, Opponent 24.1 (plus-7.8)

In his final seven starts, Doughty threw nine touchdown passes to only five interceptions while raising his completion rate to 65 percent. And while the defense was still scattershot -- the Hilltoppers allowed 3.2 yards per play to Navy, 5.8 to ULM, 6.3 to Troy, and 2.2 to Texas State -- there were enough good moments to aid in a 7-2 stretch to finish the season.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.12	77	IsoPPP+	92.6	100
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	49.3%	12	Succ. Rt. +	100.3	60
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.4	83	Def. FP+	96.4	94
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	74	Redzone S&P+	90.8	95
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.9		ACTUAL	31	+7.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	30	75	61	67
RUSHING	34	72	65	79
PASSING	35	76	59	48
Standard Downs		80	72	90
Passing Downs		60	46	107

Q1 Rk	74	1st Down Rk	63
Q2 Rk	76	2nd Down Rk	94
Q3 Rk	74	3rd Down Rk	39
Q4 Rk	53

4. A few more big plays wouldn't hurt

At Louisville and Arkansas, Petrino never inked blue-chip recruiting classes, but he always had a treasure trove of receivers and a strong quarterback. When his passing game was able to turn short, efficient passes into explosive ones, everything else fell into place.

It was no surprise that the personnel he inherited from Taggart didn't perfect fit his system. His first receiving corps was young -- two of the top three wideouts were freshmen -- with limited big-play ability. Efficient passes remained efficient, but the random big-gainers were mostly missing. WKU was 27th in the country with 217 plays gaining at least 10 yards, but the Hilltoppers were 81st with only 22 plays of at least 30 yards.

Assuming that Brohm and offensive coordinator Tyson Helton (who coached with Brohm at UAB in 2012) employ a lot of the Petrino philosophy, WKU could benefit quite a bit from experience and familiarity. Doughty is less likely to be an interception machine at the beginning of the season, senior receiver Willie McNeal averaged a solid 13.0 yards per catch, and the two heavily used freshmen (Nicholas Norris and Taywan Taylor) are, of course, now sophomores. Norris and Taylor combined to catch 15 passes for 227 yards (15.1 per catch) in November, and it's conceivable that the big plays that were missing for the most part in 2013 could begin to appear more frequently this fall, especially if a junior college transfer like wideout Jared Dangerfield is able to play a key role from the start of the year.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Brandon Doughty	6'3, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	246	374	2857	14	14	65.8%	19	4.8%	6.9
Nelson Fishback	6'2, 215	Jr.	NR	13	18	174	1	0	72.2%	1	5.3%	8.5
Todd Porter	6'4, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	5	10	76	0	1	50.0%	0	0.0%	7.6
Damarcus Smith	6'1, 209	So.	4 stars (5.8)	2	5	33	0	1	40.0%	0	0.0%	6.6
Troy Jones	6'2, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)

5. QUARTERBACK BATTLE ROYALE (in 2015)!!!!!!

Petrino and Brohm have assured that there is no shortage of candidates at the quarterback position. If Doughty falters, he might struggle to hold onto his starting job, but assuming he doesn't, the line for playing time in 2015 is huge. When Doughty proved pick-prone early in the 2013 season (to put it kindly), Petrino and Brohm tinkered with other options, from then-sophomore Nelson Fishback, to redshirt freshman (and former four-star recruit) Damarcus Smith to true freshman Todd Porter.

Doughty held onto the job, but all three backups are currently still with the program. Plus, Brohm added a junior college transfer, Troy Jones, to the mix. One has to figure that not all four of these backups are around when the 2015 season begins, but it will be interesting to see who seizes the backup role this fall.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Antonio Andrews	RB				267	1730	16	6.5	5.5	47.9%
Leon Allen	RB	6'0, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	72	357	5	5.0	4.6	37.5%
Keshawn Simpson	RB				45	173	7	3.8	2.9	28.9%
Anthony Wales	RB	5'10, 190	So.	3 stars (5.6)	17	112	2	6.6	4.5	52.9%
Brandon Doughty	QB	6'3, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	15	42	0	2.8	2.2	33.3%
Damarcus Smith	QB	6'1, 209	So.	4 stars (5.8)	10	51	0	5.1	6.2	40.0%
Nelson Fishback	QB	6'2, 215	Jr.	NR	9	41	1	4.6	4.6	33.3%
Travis Lock	RB	6'1, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
DeAndre Farris	RB	5'9, 168	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Joe Brown	RB	5'9, 172	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Willie McNeal	WR	5'10, 180	Sr.	2 stars (4.9)	71	46	599	64.8%	18.6%	60.3%	8.4	44	8.5	76.9
Nicholas Norris	WR	5'10, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	55	33	429	60.0%	14.4%	68.0%	7.8	15	8.4	55.1
Antonio Andrews	RB				49	41	478	83.7%	12.9%	62.2%	9.8	39	10.5	61.4
Taywan Taylor	WR	6'1, 190	So.	2 stars (5.2)	38	24	270	63.2%	10.0%	64.7%	7.1	-23	6.1	34.7
Joel German	WR	6'0, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	36	26	339	72.2%	9.4%	51.6%	9.4	41	8.5	43.5
Mitchell Henry	TE	6'4, 245	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	36	25	305	69.4%	9.4%	51.5%	8.5	13	8.9	39.2
Leon Allen	RB	6'0, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	24	22	202	91.7%	6.3%	50.0%	8.4	-24	8.1	25.9
Tim Gorski	TE	6'7, 253	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	19	17	172	89.5%	5.0%	70.6%	9.1	-5	10.1	22.1
Tyler Higbee	TE	6'5, 233	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	19	13	169	68.4%	5.0%	66.7%	8.9	16	8.7	21.7
Jamarielle Brown	WR				15	8	89	53.3%	3.9%	26.7%	5.9	-18	5.6	11.4
Aaron Jackson	WR				7	3	20	42.9%	1.8%	100.0%	2.9	-26	1.6	2.6
Kadeem Jones	FB				5	4	44	80.0%	1.3%	25.0%	8.8	0	11.4	5.7
Cam Lewis	WR				3	1	6	33.3%	0.8%	100.0%	2.0	-12	3.3	0.8
Lonnie Turner	WR	5'11, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)
Jared Dangerfield	WR	6'3, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Antwane Grant	WR	6'1, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Nacarius Fant	WR	5'11, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Nick True	TE	6'5, 240	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.3	3.39	3.66	43.4%	69.6%	13.8%	119.2	4.8%	3.8%
Rank	71	11	30	21	60	8	49	70	17

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Luis Polanco	LG				36	1st All-SBC
Sean Conway	C				42
Cameron Clemmons	RG	6'6, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	31
Forrest Lamp	LT	6'4, 296	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12
Ed Hazelett	RT				12
Max Halpin	C	6'3, 295	So.	NR	7
Darrell Williams	RT	6'6, 310	So.	2 stars (5.2)	2
Derrick Stark	C	6'2, 295	Sr.	NR	0
Connor Popeck	OL	6'4, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
John Delaney	OL	6'6, 304	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Charleston Antwine	OL	6'5, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Donald Rocker	OL	6'4, 296	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Justin Martinez	OL	6'3, 275	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Kyle Jones	OL	6'4, 300	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Zack Heath	OL	6'3, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)

6. Rushing red flags

It certainly helped that WKU was able to lean on the running game when the passing game faltered in 2013. Antonio Andrews was a workhorse; he carried 304 times with 37 receptions in 2012, then he carried 267 times with 41 catches in 2013. He was both efficient and explosive, and his hands out of the backfield were tremendous. Backups Leon Allen (the presumptive new starter) and Anthony Wales showed decent potential in seven to eight carries per game, but Andrews carried most of the load. And he did so behind a clean line.

WKU's offensive line was one of the best in the mid-major universe at keeping defenders out of the backfield and giving backs a chance to get upfield. Four players with starting experience do return, including three-year starting guard Cameron Clemmons, but three players responsible for 90 starts, including all-conference guard Luis Polanco, are gone. The passing game could compensate for a step backwards with the run, but a shaky line could obviously cause problems across the board.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.12	52	IsoPPP+	96.5	85
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.5%	41	Succ. Rt. +	97.2	68
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.1	27	Off. FP+	100.5	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	63	Redzone S&P+	96.2	73
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.2		ACTUAL	21.0	+1.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	14	83	68	72
RUSHING	60	66	70	50
PASSING	10	98	80	102
Standard Downs		54	44	73
Passing Downs		108	113	78

Q1 Rk	68	1st Down Rk	67
Q2 Rk	67	2nd Down Rk	92
Q3 Rk	104	3rd Down Rk	122
Q4 Rk	107

7. At least the second-stringers return

Three is a scary number to see in the "returning starters" column. WKU must replace its best pass-rushing end (Bar'ee Boyd), its most disruptive tackle (Calvin Washington), all three starting linebackers (Xavius Boyd, Andrew Jackson, Chuck Franks), both starting safeties (Jonathan Dowling, Arius Wright), and a starting cornerback (Tyree Robinson). That's rough, and it makes sustaining WKU's late-season defensive gains rather difficult.

If there's hope for the defense, however, it comes from the simple fact that the second string remains mostly intact. It's one thing to lose three of your top four in a given unit; it's another to lose six of your top eight. In players like tackle Bryan Shorter, linebacker Daqual Randall, and safety Rico Brown, WKU has experienced backups (or part-time starters) ready to play a larger role. Plus, Brohm signed junior college transfers at each level of the defense -- one lineman, two linebackers (including highly-touted Dejon Brown), two defensive backs -- to make sure that second-year defensive coordinator Nick Holt is not without some toys in the toy box.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.4	2.97	3.27	37.2%	67.2%	17.3%	84.3	6.0%	4.6%
Rank	67	68	61	44	63	88	94	27	109

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Bar'ee Boyd	DE				12	35.5	5.8%	11.0	6.5	0	4	2	0
Gavin Rocker	DE	6'2, 230	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	27.5	4.5%	5.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Devante Terrell	DT	6'0, 318	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	22.0	3.6%	2.0	0.5	0	0	1	0
Calvin Washington	DT				12	18.0	2.9%	3.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Bryan Shorter	DT	6'2, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	6	12.0	1.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
James Hervey	DT				10	9.5	1.5%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
T.J. Smith	DE	6'2, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	7.5	1.2%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Kalvin Robinson	DE	6'5, 233	So.	2 stars (5.2)	10	5.5	0.9%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
DeMarcus Glover	DE	6'4, 240	So.	2 stars (5.4)	7	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Raphael Cox	DT	6'3, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	9	3.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jamichael Payne	DT	6'1, 332	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)
D'Von Isaac	DT	6'4, 275	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Ge'monee Brown	DT	6'2, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Xavius Boyd	LB				12	85.5	13.9%	15.5	7.5	0	2	1	0
Andrew Jackson	LB				11	75.0	12.2%	8.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Chuck Franks	LB				12	16.5	2.7%	4.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Daqual Randall	LB	6'0, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	7	10.0	1.6%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Terran Williams	LB	6'2, 222	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	9.5	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Devante Duclos	LB	6'1, 220	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	5.0	0.8%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Shaquille Johnson	LB	6'4, 223	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Drew Davis	LB	6'1, 215	So.	2 stars (5.2)
Dejon Brown	LB	6'3, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Nick Holt	LB	6'1, 230	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
D'Andre Ferby	LB	6'2, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

8. Size up the middle

Mid-major defenses are often forced to rely on speed or creative schemes because of a general lack of size up front. That isn't the case for WKU, at least not in the middle of the defense; the six tackles listed above average 6'2, 298, and linebacker Daqual Randall runs a cool 245 pounds. Granted, size on the perimeter could be an issue -- the four ends above average 6'3, 236, and only one other linebacker is listed at 230 or higher -- but it wasn't easy to push WKU around last year, and it won't be this year either.

So that's one good thing. Now we just have to see if the new starters can come anywhere close to approximating the 42.5 tackles for loss, 16.5 sacks, and eight pass break-ups departed seniors managed a year ago.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jonathan Dowling	S				12	61.0	9.9%	1	0	3	7	6	0
Arius Wright	S				12	44.5	7.2%	8.5	3	1	1	0	0
Cam Thomas	CB	6'1, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	36.5	5.9%	1.5	1	5	10	0	0
Tyree Robinson	CB				12	36.0	5.8%	2.5	0	4	6	0	0
Rico Brown	S	5'11, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	24.5	4.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Ward	S	6'3, 204	So.	2 stars (5.3)	7	11.0	1.8%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Prince Charles Iworah	CB	5'11, 193	Jr.	NR	12	6.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
DeVante Thomas	CB	5'10, 190	Sr.	NR	12	6.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ricardo Singh	S	5'11, 190	Sr.	NR	10	6.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Wonderful Terry	DB	5'10, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Forrest Coleman	DB	6'2, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Martavius Mims	DB	6'2, 183	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

9. Cam Thomas is a stud

WKU's starting defensive backs combined for 13.5 tackles for loss, four sacks, 13 interceptions, and 24 pass break-ups in 2013, a fantastic total all around. Opponents chose to run the ball as much as humanly possible, and it's easy to see why. WKU's pass rush was decent, and its secondary was awesome. In Jonathan Dowling (a former four-star recruit and an NFL Draft early entry) and Arius Wright, the Hilltoppers had perhaps the best set of play-making safeties at the mid-major level. Both are gone, as is corner Tyree Robinson.

But at least Cam Thomas returns. Thomas is a lockdown corner who defensed 15 passes with only 36.5 tackles -- as I always say, a ratio like that means you're either preventing your man from catching the ball or you're a terrible tackler. I'm leaning on the former with Thomas.

Of course, having a strong cornerback only goes so far if your pass rush falls apart and the rest of your secondary is too young to be effective. There's going to be a lot of pressure on guys like JUCO transfers Wonderful Terry and Forrest Coleman, senior Rico Brown, and youngsters like Marcus Ward to play at a high level very quickly.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Hendrix Brakefield			31	39.4	0	12	14	83.9%
Joseph Occhipinti	6'3, 190	So.	6	32.8	1	2	1	50.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Hendrix Brakefield			37	62.7	11	1	29.7%
Joseph Occhipinti	6'3, 190	So.	19	59.1	0	1	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Garrett Schwettman	5'11, 160	Jr.	45-47	11-13	84.6%	2-3	66.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Antonio Andrews	KR			15	20.9	0
Anthony Wales	KR	5'10, 190	So.	13	20.9	0
Antonio Andrews	PR			14	6.9	0
Willie McNeal	PR	5'10, 180	Sr.	4	2.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	54
Field Goal Efficiency	51
Punt Return Efficiency	56
Kick Return Efficiency	35
Punt Efficiency	90
Kickoff Efficiency	80
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	41

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
28-Aug	Bowling Green	60
6-Sep	at Illinois	61
13-Sep	at Middle Tennessee	99
27-Sep	at Navy	67
4-Oct	UAB	115
18-Oct	at Florida Atlantic	103
25-Oct	Old Dominion	NR
1-Nov	at Louisiana Tech	98
8-Nov	UTEP	117
15-Nov	Army	101
22-Nov	UTSA	75
28-Nov	at Marshall	59

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-13.6% (99)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	84
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-10 / -4.8
TO Luck/Game	-2.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	10 (7, 3)

10. A test of the upward trajectory

From 2008-12, WKU's F/+ rankings went from 116th to 114th to 99th to 93rd to 69th. The 'Toppers improved consistently under Taggart, then fell to only 77th (thanks mostly to that first month) in Petrino's one year. In terms of upward trajectory, this is impressive for a program so new to the FBS level.

WKU makes the leap to Conference USA this year, and one has to figure that from the standpoint of overall athleticism, the move will go just fine. The big question for 2014 is whether Brohm can avoid at least a one-year setback. He would be excused if it were to happen -- the running game and most of the defense must be rebuilt -- but he could score some major points by avoiding it.

The schedule is navigable if WKU can play at a top-100 level or so. Seven WKU opponents are projected 98th or worse in 2013, and home games against Bowling Green and UTSA are not out of reach. Even with a step backwards, the Hilltoppers could reach bowl eligibility. And in a conference with better bowl ties, they should be more well-positioned to actually make a bowl with seven or more wins, unlike 2011 and 2013.

We'll set the bar at six wins or so. WKU could certainly win more than that, but accounting for some early growing pains is probably a must for the Hilltoppers in 2014.