The big 2014 North Texas football preview: Staying good is even harder

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1. "Are we a real program?"

Yes, it was only a New Year's Day bowl via technicality. No, the Heart of Dallas Bowl doesn't exactly have the stature of the Capital One Bowl, and no, UNLV wasn't exactly LSU or Michigan State. But North Texas' 36-14 win over UNLV in the Cotton Bowl early on January 1 was significant nonetheless.

In the four years of the Todd Dodge ear (2007-10), North Texas won eight games. In Dan McCarney's first two years in charge post-Dodge, North Texas won nine. In McCarney's third year alone, North Texas won nine more.

The trajectory for the Mean Green under McCarney has been clear and significant. He cleaned up the foundation for a couple of years, added discipline and depth, and then rode an experienced two-deep to nearly unprecedented success. Sure, North Texas had won nine games at the FBS level before -- 2003 under Darrell Dickey, 1977 and 1978 under Hayden Fry, 1959 under Odus Mitchell. McCarney lifting a monstrosity of a Heart of Dallas trophy a couple of months after almost winning Conference USA in the team's first attempt wasn't automatically the high point for this program. But it was easily the highest point in quite a while, the completion of a comeback attempt that began in 2005 and suffered endless false starts.

And now comes the hard part. Succeeding once isn't easy, but a lot of coaches and programs do it. Succeeding again takes something completely different, and McCarney knows it.

"The challenge ahead is this: Are we a real program, which means no matter who you lose or who gets injured or who graduates, the next group comes in and replaces them," UNT coach Dan McCarney said. "Or do we just disappear off the college football landscape for another 10 years before we can have success again? We want to keep the edge and be really successful and have a program that people can be proud of."

McCarney has himself a new contract, some new assistant coaches, and a roster that is both deep with options and thin on experience. It might be unreasonable to expect North Texas to win nine games again in 2013, but the depth of the fall will be telling. North Texas was legitimately strong in 2013; the encore will be a legitimate challenge.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 51
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Idaho	116	40-6	W	31.4 - 31.9	L
7-Sep	at Ohio	104	21-27	L	19.4 - 31.3	L
14-Sep	Ball State	57	34-27	W	29.5 - 28.5	W
21-Sep	at Georgia	22	21-45	L	13.5 - 35.0	L
5-Oct	at Tulane	70	21-24	L	36.7 - 21.0	W	-3.5
12-Oct	Middle Tennessee	85	34-7	W	30.2 - 12.6	W	0.2
19-Oct	at Louisiana Tech	112	28-13	W	31.4 - 30.9	W	2.6
26-Oct	at Southern Miss	120	55-14	W	31.2 - 26.1	W	3.5
31-Oct	Rice	69	28-16	W	27.0 - 21.8	W	8.8
9-Nov	UTEP	119	41-7	W	23.3 - 8.9	W	8.6
23-Nov	UTSA	67	13-21	L	25.8 - 26.5	L	4.9
30-Nov	at Tulsa	94	42-10	W	40.3 - 16.2	W	9.6
1-Jan	vs. UNLV	96	36-14	W	30.0 - 16.8	W	11.3

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-5.0%	80	+7.3%	31	+2.6%	16
Points Per Game	31.8	49	17.8	8
Adj. Points Per Game	28.4	66	23.7	25

2. Stay confident, thrive late

Following a 2012 season marked as much by stagnation as anything, North Texas' 2013 campaign did not start out with a significant step forward. The Mean Green dominated Idaho to start the year, but everybody did that, and they were outgained by 143 yards by an Ohio team that wasn't nearly as good as we perhaps thought at the time, and they were lucky to lose by only six. Then they fell behind Ball State by a 20-3 margin in the first quarter.

The next five quarters or so set the pace for the rest of the season. They stormed back to steal a 34-27 win over Ball State, and while the offense was mostly a no-show against Georgia, they rode defense and special teams to a 21-21 tie midway through the third quarter. Georgia stormed back to win comfortably, but North Texas was proving both athletic and resilient. And despite a frustrating 24-21 loss to Tulane, in which Tulane returned both a blocked field goal and an interception for touchdowns, confidence was steady. And when the schedule eased up a bit, North Texas took off.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 31.7, UNT 23.5 (minus-8.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 9 games): UNT 30.7, Opponent 20.9 (plus-9.8)

The Tulane loss was costly, as North Texas finished a game short of Rice in the C-USA West standings. But despite the jump to a new conference, North Texas had pulled off its most successful season in a decade, capping it with a pasting of UNLV in front of 38,380 at the Cotton Bowl.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.06	101	IsoPPP+	91.5	105
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.5%	51	Succ. Rt. +	101.4	53
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	25.8	5	Def. FP+	106.4	11
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	81	Redzone S&P+	103.9	44
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.4		ACTUAL	23	+2.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	64	70	54	89
RUSHING	50	89	75	84
PASSING	68	52	33	79
Standard Downs		66	50	110
Passing Downs		65	66	78

Q1 Rk	100	1st Down Rk	82
Q2 Rk	87	2nd Down Rk	65
Q3 Rk	48	3rd Down Rk	79
Q4 Rk	78

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Derek Thompson				251	390	2896	16	13	64.4%	11	2.7%	7.1
Andrew McNulty	6'1, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	5	6	36	0	1	83.3%	1	14.3%	4.6
Dajon Williams	6'3, 199	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	5	6	55	0	0	83.3%	0	0.0%	9.2
Josh Greer	6'5, 220	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Connor Means	6'4, 210	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

3. A QB-friendly system

Earlier this week, we talked about MTSU's offense and the way it puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback to make good decisions on passing downs. The North Texas offense devised by offensive coordinator Mike Canales is similar -- the Mean Green ran five percent more frequently than the norm on standard downs and threw the ball three percent more frequently on passing downs.

North Texas' offense was unique, however, in the way that it attempted to stretch defenses horizontally. An offense that requires more passing downs passes trends toward lower completion rates and higher completion yardage; quarterback Derek Thompson, however, had a 64 percent completion rate with only 11.5 yards per completion. UNT's attack was efficiency based and catered to diverse selection of talent, from meaty running back Brandin Byrd (5'10, 223) to waterbug/wideout Brelan Chancellor (5'9, 186). UNT used Chancellor and other weapons to stretch the field horizontally, then tried to drive Byrd right up the middle. It worked reasonably well; the rushing numbers improved in 2013, even if they were still relatively mediocre, but the pass efficiency numbers were great. And now we'll see how strong that identity is with the loss of Thompson, Byrd, Chancellor, and leading receiver Darnell Smith.

Thompson was the starter for all three years of the McCarney era; he will be replaced by either Andrew McNulty (last year's backup), Dajon Williams (an athletic "feast-or-famine" type), or junior college transfer Josh Greer, who completed 64 percent of his passes for Navarro College last fall.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Brandin Byrd	RB				202	1075	11	5.3	6.2	35.1%
Antoinne Jimmerson	RB	5'9, 222	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	107	446	7	4.2	4.3	36.4%
Reggie Pegram	RB	5'9, 221	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	94	338	6	3.6	3.2	29.8%
Derek Thompson	QB				53	210	3	4.0	4.1	28.3%
Mark Lewis	RB	5'10, 210	So.	2 stars (5.3)	18	63	1	3.5	1.6	50.0%
Rex Rollins	RB	6'1, 197	So.	2 stars (5.4)	18	92	0	5.1	8.7	33.3%
Brelan Chancellor	WR				16	123	2	7.7	5.3	56.3%
Daniel Prior	TE				6	16	0	2.7	N/A	0.0%
Carlos Harris	WR	5'8, 172	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	4	48	0	12.0	5.9	100.0%
Erick Evans	RB	5'9, 190	RSFr.	NR
Willy Ivery	RB	5'9, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Darnell Smith	WR				99	70	791	70.7%	26.1%	56.4%	8.0	-18	8.3	102.1
Brelan Chancellor	WR				80	53	792	66.3%	21.1%	53.2%	9.9	159	10.0	102.2
Carlos Harris	WR	5'8, 172	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	73	47	553	64.4%	19.2%	49.3%	7.6	-16	7.2	71.4
Darvin Kidsy	WR	6'0, 174	So.	2 stars (5.3)	25	16	151	64.0%	6.6%	42.9%	6.0	-43	6.2	19.5
Drew Miller	TE				21	17	191	81.0%	5.5%	63.2%	9.1	6	7.9	24.7
Brandin Byrd	RB				16	11	46	68.8%	4.2%	60.0%	2.9	-83	2.9	5.9
Marcus Smith	TE	6'4, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	15	6	95	40.0%	3.9%	63.6%	6.3	0	7.6	12.3
Antoinne Jimmerson	RB	5'9, 222	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	13	11	93	84.6%	3.4%	61.5%	7.2	-24	6.8	12.0
Lynrick Pleasant	WR				9	7	65	77.8%	2.4%	42.9%	7.2	-12	6.1	8.4
Darius Terrell	WR	6'3, 212	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	8	7	76	87.5%	2.1%	0.0%	9.5	3	3.2	9.8
Reggie Pegram	RB	5'9, 221	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	8	6	56	75.0%	2.1%	25.0%	7.0	-11	10.9	7.2
Carl Caldwell	WR				4	3	17	75.0%	1.1%	0.0%	4.3	-17	0.9	2.2
Roderick Lancaster	WR	6'2, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Chris Loving	TE	6'4, 272	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Wylie Reinhardt	TE	6'4, 275	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Tee Goree	WR	6'3, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jalen Adams	WR	5'11, 161	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Fonzale Davis	WR	5'11, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

4. Last year's ball distribution will help

One of the narratives for North Texas in 2014 will be not only having to replace Thompson, but also the Byrd-Smith-Chancellor trio. And to be sure, these three were all explosive and effective, capable of creating big plays out of a rather conservative system.

But there was more to UNT's offense than this trio, and that's a very good thing heading into 2014. If we look at intended touches -- targets plus carries -- we see that quite a few players were involved in the North Texas offense last fall.

• Brandin Byrd: 218 intended touches, 1,121 yards (5.1) -- gone
• Antoinne Jimmerson: 120 intended touches, 539 yards (4.5)
• Reggie Pegram: 102 intended touches, 394 yards (3.9)
• Darnell Smith: 99 intended touches, 791 yards (8.0) -- gone
• Brelan Chancellor: 96 intended touches, 915 yards (9.5) -- gone
• Carlos Harris: 77 intended touches, 601 yards (7.8)
• Darvin Kidsy: 25 intended touches, 151 yards (6.0)
• Drew Miller: 21 intended touches, 191 yards (9.1) -- gone
• Rex Rollins: 18 intended touches, 92 yards (5.1)
• Mark Lewis: 18 intended touches, 63 yards (3.5)

Granted, four of the players with the best per-touch averages are gone, but half of the six players with 75-plus touches return, as do six of the 10 with 18-plus. Plenty of new names could play a role this year, from emerging spring star Erick Evans to three-star freshmen like Willy Ivery and Tee Goree, but the new starting quarterback won't be working with a totally green set of skill position players.

(Well, they will indeed be totally green in one way, but you know what I mean.)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	89	2.78	3	35.2%	75.9%	19.6%	210.0	2.6%	3.3%
Rank	104	86	89	104	22	73	8	15	11

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Cyril Lemon	RG	6'3, 304	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	37	1st All-CUSA
Mason Y'Barbo	LG	6'2, 307	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	37	2nd All-CUSA
Antonio Johnson	LT	6'5, 294	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	34
LaChris Anyiam	RT				19
Kaydon Kirby	C	6'3, 313	So.	NR	13
Shawn McKinney	C	6'4, 365	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	2
Micah Thompson	RG	6'4, 316	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Travis Ellard	LG	6'3, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Connor Trussell	RT	6'5, 287	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Ryan Rentfro	LT	6'4, 298	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Dominick Walker	OL	6'5, 278	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Harrison Sorge	OL	6'5, 304	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)

5. You couldn't ask for a more experienced line

The nature of the quick passing game assures that North Texas' sack rate isn't going to be tremendously high, line be damned. But for the second straight year, the Mean Green's sack rates were top-10 caliber, and at the very least the run-related line stats improved. North Texas was automatic in short-yardage situations, and the Stuff Rate (run stops behind the line) improved from 118th to 73rd.

The horizontal running options probably hurt UNT's Opportunity Rate (percentage of carries that go at least five yards downfield), but the line improved in 2013 and should improve again with the return of four starters, five players with starting experience (123 career starts), and two all-conference guards. A seasoned line is a new quarterback's best friend.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.14	63	IsoPPP+	98.0	70
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.4%	12	Succ. Rt. +	107.8	33
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	33.0	11	Off. FP+	101.5	44
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.0	1	Redzone S&P+	103.5	45
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	28.0		ACTUAL	34.0	+6.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	17	41	33	44
RUSHING	15	26	16	39
PASSING	62	63	65	50
Standard Downs		57	43	95
Passing Downs		32	24	37

Q1 Rk	80	1st Down Rk	62
Q2 Rk	51	2nd Down Rk	48
Q3 Rk	15	3rd Down Rk	57
Q4 Rk	67

6. This defense was mean

The offense certainly improved a bit in 2013, but the defense was the reason for North Texas' surge. An experienced defensive line improved dramatically, linebackers made plays against both the run and pass, and an athletic secondary made enough plays on the ball to compensate for allowing a big play here or there.

North Texas had one of the most efficient, mean mid-major defenses in the country. The Mean Green logged 79 tackles for loss, 39 sacks, and 17 forced fumbles. (They blocked seven kicks, as well. Seven!) They were big and physical up front and hard-hitting in the back. And now they must almost completely rebuild the starting front seven.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.9	2.57	3.04	33.0%	60.7%	21.4%	113	6.1%	6.0%
Rank	43	21	38	11	26	33	35	26	83

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Aaron Bellazin	DE				13	27.5	4.0%	12.5	9.0	0	1	2	0
Brandon McCoy	DE				12	25.0	3.6%	7.0	6.0	0	2	0	0
Richard Abbe	DT				13	16.5	2.4%	4.0	3.0	0	4	0	0
Chad Polk	DE	6'0, 223	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	10	14.0	2.0%	3.5	3.0	0	1	1	0
Ryan Boutwell	DT				13	13.5	2.0%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Alexander Lincoln	DT	6'2, 267	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	11.0	1.6%	2.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Daryl Mason	DE	6'3, 253	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	9.5	1.4%	1.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Austin Orr	DT	6'4, 272	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	9	4.0	0.6%	1.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Jarrian Roberts	DE	6'2, 238	So.	2 stars (5.4)	11	3.0	0.4%	2.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Sir Calvin Wallace	DT	6'2, 293	So.	2 stars (5.4)	3	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Quenton Brown	DE	6'4, 235	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)
Malik Dilonga	DE	6'4, 251	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Sid Moore	DL	6'1, 252	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Zach Orr	MLB				13	87.5	12.7%	13.5	3.0	0	4	2	1
Derek Akunne	OLB	6'0, 244	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	13	67.0	9.7%	4.5	0.0	0	4	1	0
Will Wright	OLB				13	59.5	8.6%	7.5	1.0	2	5	0	0
Jamal Marshall	OLB	6'3, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	13.0	1.9%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Fred Scott	MLB	5'11, 235	So.	2 stars (5.2)	6	6.0	0.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Sed Ellis	OLB	6'3, 189	So.	2 stars (5.4)	10	4.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
LaJaylin Smith	LB	6'0, 221	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Calvin Minor	LB	6'3, 207	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Anthony Wallace (Oregon)	MLB	6'0, 235	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)
A.J. Smith	LB	6'2, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Brandon Garner	LB	5'11, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. Hello, Wallace

Twelve North Texas defenders recorded at least 2.5 tackles for loss in 2013. The Mean Green tried to keep as many players as possible close to the line of scrimmage, daring you to beat them deep. It was a gamble that paid off more often than not, but we'll see how aggressive defensive coordinator John Skladany feels he can be this fall now that six of the aforementioned 12 defenders are gone.

Players accounting for 25 of 35.5 TFLs, 19 of 28 sacks, and seven of 11 pass break-ups on the line are gone. So are linebackers Zach Orr and Will Wright (combiend: 21 tackles for loss, four sacks, two interceptions, nine break-ups, two forced fumbles).

Granted, the second string returns mostly intact, and backups like tackle Alexander Lincoln, end Jarrian Roberts, and linebacker Jamarl Marshall did get opportunities to make some plays last year. But newcomers will likely play a role in North Texas' defensive success (or lack thereof). Redshirt freshman end Sid Moore has made waves in practice, it appears, and junior college transfer A.J. Smith could quickly see time at linebacker.

But among the newcomers to the rotation is a name you might recognize: Oregon transfer Anthony Wallace. The former four-star recruit broke up three passes and recorded a tackle for loss in reserve time in 2011-12 and could anchor the new-look defensive front.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Marcus Trice	FS				13	70.0	10.2%	4.5	1	5	9	3	0
Kenny Buyers	CB	5'11, 177	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	13	66.5	9.7%	4.5	2	3	5	0	0
Lairamie Lee	SS	5'10, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	60.0	8.7%	4	1	3	2	2	0
James Jones	CB	5'11, 173	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	58.0	8.4%	2.5	2	1	7	3	0
Zac Whitfield	CB	5'9, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	17.5	2.5%	0	0	3	2	0	0
Zed Evans	SS	5'11, 198	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	9	15.5	2.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Hilbert Jackson	CB				12	9.5	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chad Davis	DB	5'10, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	10	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sheldon Wade	FS	5'11, 181	Sr.	NR
Rashad Jackson (New Mexico)	CB	5'9, 170	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Vershad Jackson (New Mexico)	CB	5'8, 160	So.	2 stars (5.4)
John Schilleci	DB	6'0, 193	So.	2 stars (5.4)

8. Minimal worries in the secondary

Granted, the one loss North Texas has suffered in the secondary is a pretty big one; Oklahoma transfer Marcus Trice was the pace-setter for the Mean Green defensive backfield, defensing 14 passes, recording 4.5 tackles for loss, and blocking three kicks. But the other starters were in no way chopped liver, and UNT returns both an experienced, hard-hitting safety (Lairamie Lee) but also three corners who combined for seven tackles for loss, four sacks, seven interceptions, 14 break-ups, and three forced fumbles.

We'll see if North Texas ends up a bit more leaky when it comes to allowing big plays, and we'll see what happens if depth is tested a bit, but the play-making ability didn't dissipate all that much with the departure of Trice.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Blake Macek	5'9, 186	So.	66	41.1	8	18	27	68.2%
Zach Paul	5'9, 185	Jr.	3	20.0	0	0	2	66.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Zach Olen			79	62.7	38	0	48.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Zach Paul	5'9, 185	Jr.	48-49	7-9	77.8%	3-6	50.0%
Zach Olen			2-4	0-0	N/A	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Brelan Chancellor	KR			24	27.6	1
James Jones	KR	5'11, 173	Sr.	8	15.8	0
Brelan Chancellor	PR			24	16.1	1
Carlos Harris	PR	5'8, 172	Jr.	3	-2.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	16
Field Goal Efficiency	116
Punt Return Efficiency	1
Kick Return Efficiency	30
Punt Efficiency	29
Kickoff Efficiency	50
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	5

9. The art of field position

Field position is incredibly important. All else being equal, a field position margin (your average starting field position minus your opponent's) of plus-6 to plus-10 results, on average, in a win percentage around 78 percent and a scoring margin of around plus-16 points.

Field position is determined in large part by the efficiency of one's offense and defense, and North Texas certainly derived an advantage in that regard. But the Mean Green also coaxed an incredible amount out of the special teams unit.

Brelan Chancellor was easily one of the best return men in the country. He was one of only six players to average at least 16.0 yards per punt return, and of those six, he was the only one to also average at least 27 yards per kick return. He was a one-man field position unit; throw in quality punting from Blake Macek, a strong coverage unit, and an absurd number of blocked kicks, and North Texas ended up with a field position margin of plus-7.2 yards -- the average Mean Green drive started at the 33.0 (11th in the country) while opponents' drives started at the 25.8 (fifth). Only Michigan State (plus-7.7) and Ohio State (plus-7.4) could top UNT's field position prowess.

Macek returns, but the loss of Chancellor here could hurt North Texas a lot more than his absence in the passing game. He was special.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	at Texas	33
6-Sep	SMU	74
13-Sep	Louisiana Tech	98
20-Sep	Nicholls State	NR
4-Oct	at Indiana	50
11-Oct	at UAB	115
18-Oct	Southern Miss	110
25-Oct	at Rice	88
8-Nov	Florida Atlantic	103
15-Nov	at UTEP	117
22-Nov	Florida International	119
29-Nov	at UTSA	75

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-13.6% (98)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	113
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	11 / 7.5
TO Luck/Game	+1.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	10 (5, 5)

10. The only thing harder than winning is continuing to win

Between Chancellor's impact on field position, Derek Thompson's experience, Brandin Byrd's combination of strength and speed, Marcus Trice's play-making ability in the secondary (and on special teams), and the countless contributions of the six key contributors lost from the defensive front seven, it's safe to say the odds of a step backwards for North Texas in 2014 are pretty good. No matter what kind of depth Dan McCarney has created, and no matter how strong the trajectory of the program might be overall, the Mean Green improved a little too much to be sustainable last fall.

The magnitude of the step backwards, though, will be key. And there's reason to believe North Texas could still be quite strong. There are options at quarterback, there is still experience at the skill positions, there is massive experience on the offensive line, and the North Texas secondary will still be among the best of the mid-majors.

North Texas ranked 51st in the F/+ rankings last fall, and if they can avoid falling below about 80th, the Mean Green will find plenty of wins on the schedule. All six home games come against teams projected 74th or worse, and three road games come against teams projected 88th or worse. Despite the losses, another bowl game should be expected. Sustain some of the gains in 2014, then take another step forward in 2015.

Continuing to win is hard, but it certainly looks like McCarney has a chance to do just that.