The big 2014 UTSA football preview: One last go-round

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1. We probably aren't talking enough about the job Larry Coker's doing

In 2010, UTSA football was a theory.

In 2011, UTSA football was going 4-6 against teams like McMurry and Minot State.

In 2012, UTSA football was going 8-4 against a schedule that included nine current FBS teams.

In 2013, UTSA football was finishing a game shy of the Conference USA West title.

If you were to build a program from scratch and were looking for the perfect location, San Antonio would likely be in the top five or 10 when it comes to potential candidates. It's in the middle of perhaps the most football-populous state in the country. It's a large metropolis without a big-time football team. It's one hour and change from Austin, three hours from Houston, four hours from Dallas, seven hours from New Orleans, and seven hours from Oklahoma City. Your access to recruits is massive, and it would seem that building a program there might be as easy as anywhere in the country.

But it's still really hard. Well-placed Florida International won nine games in its first four years in FBS and has two winning seasons in 10 years. Florida Atlantic did reach a pair of bowls in its fourth and fifth years in FBS but still only has three winning seasons in 10 years. Georgia State, almost as perfectly placed as possible, just went 0-12 in its first FBS season and is 10-35 overall.

Of the recent batch of new, ambitious programs, only Old Dominion has succeeded at a level close to what UTSA has achieved so far, and even the Monarchs spent four years at the FCS level before their FBS provisional year.

UTSA has been incredibly ambitious in its FBS timetable, and Larry Coker is making any and all risks pay off. We should probably be talking about this more.

2. An incubator test

Of course, Coker is only passing the first test. It was a giant one, but it's almost over. In 2014, just as in 2013, he will field a team that returns at least 19 starters. He could be starting as many as 18 seniors.

His first recruiting cycle was full of players who were ambitious and willing to take some lumps in exchange for major playing time. The next cycle will have expectations and will be young in 2015. There's nothing saying Coker will be able to manage his program's current trajectory with a different batch of less-experienced leaders.

But that's a worry for 2015. In 2014, his team will basically be an incubator test for the value of chemistry and experience. His guys have played together a lot, and they very well might be the favorite to win the Conference USA West division barely three years after playing the program's first game.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-5 | Adj. Record: 9-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 67
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at New Mexico	110	21-13	W	19.5 - 17.7	W
7-Sep	Oklahoma State	8	35-56	L	42.5 - 43.6	L
14-Sep	at Arizona	25	13-38	L	28.4 - 36.6	L
21-Sep	at UTEP	119	32-13	W	24.4 - 18.8	W
28-Sep	Houston	46	28-59	L	41.6 - 40.1	W	-0.1
5-Oct	at Marshall	52	10-34	L	21.3 - 21.2	W	-0.4
12-Oct	Rice	69	21-27	L	31.2 - 27.8	W	0.5
26-Oct	UAB	115	52-31	W	32.7 - 37.9	L	1.1
2-Nov	at Tulsa	94	34-15	W	32.4 - 29.5	W	0.6
9-Nov	Tulane	70	10-7	W	32.9 - 29.7	W	0.9
23-Nov	at North Texas	51	21-13	W	36.5 - 25.0	W	3.2
30-Nov	Louisiana Tech	112	30-10	W	36.5 - 14.9	W	6.8

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+0.9%	56	-0.8%	68	-2.7%	106
Points Per Game	25.6	86	26.3	62
Adj. Points Per Game	31.7	43	28.6	73

3. A six-week learning curve

UTSA has played eight FBS opponents in its history. In 2013, the Roadrunners will play 12, including seven projected in the Top 92 of the preseason F/+ rankings and four in the Top 60. [...] The Roadrunners are going to struggle in 2013, but they are ahead of schedule, and they should be able to hold their own for at least a good portion of the season.

I wrote that in last year's UTSA preview, and I was reasonably correct ... for a few weeks. UTSA did struggle early on. The Roadrunners eased past New Mexico, the offense showed against Oklahoma State, and the defense certainly held UTEP in check. UTSA was playing somewhere near an average level, though after six weeks its record was just 2-4.

But following a 24-point loss at Marshall, one that featured decent defense but turnovers galore, UTSA got its act together. The Roadrunners played well in a tight loss to Rice (one that would end up costing them the division title even if they didn't realize it at the time), then didn't lose again.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 6 games): Opponent 29.7, UTSA 29.6 (minus-0.1)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 6 games): UTSA 33.7, Opponent 27.5 (plus-6.2)

In the final six games, UTSA's offensive output improved from 5.7 yards per play to 6.3; the defense went from averaging 5.8 yards per play to 4.9. The Roadrunners averaged 5.8 per play against a stout Tulane defense (even while only scoring 10 points) and allowed 4.5 per play to a surging North Texas offense. They whipped Tulsa in Tulsa and finished the season by pasting a Louisiana Tech squad that had beaten them by 24 points the year before. That tight loss to Rice was costly, but it's impossible to look at 2013 as anything other than a rousing success.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.12	76	IsoPPP+	92.0	103
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.6%	37	Succ. Rt. +	110.4	28
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.4	99	Def. FP+	102.4	30
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	54	Redzone S&P+	104.0	42
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.8		ACTUAL	21	+2.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	56	53	28	80
RUSHING	57	16	20	69
PASSING	56	81	41	74
Standard Downs		45	27	75
Passing Downs		52	32	120

Q1 Rk	67	1st Down Rk	59
Q2 Rk	49	2nd Down Rk	50
Q3 Rk	59	3rd Down Rk	54
Q4 Rk	43

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Eric Soza				236	377	2719	12	11	62.6%	15	3.8%	6.8
Tucker Carter	6'3, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	23	33	190	1	2	69.7%	2	5.7%	5.1
Austin Robinson	6'3, 220	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Blake Bogenschutz	6'1, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

4. After Soza

In UTSA's entire football history, Eric Soza has thrown 89 percent of its passes and thrown for 88 percent of its yards. He is, without either question or competition, the greatest quarterback in UTSA history.

Granted, that's by default. Aside from when he was limited by injury, he's been UTSA's only starting quarterback. Still, he was solid -- he completed 63 percent of his passes as a senior and added another efficiency aspect to an already efficient offense -- and his replacement has a reasonably high standard to meet.

Who will that replacement be? And what kind of offensive tweaks might UTSA implement? Despite Soza's solid mobility (he averaged 6.2 yards per non-sack carry as a junior, 5.3 as a senior), UTSA was balanced between the run and pass. The Roadrunners almost perfectly matched the national run-pass averages, and if the new winner of the starting job, be it senior Tucker Carter or redshirt freshman Austin Robinson, isn't quite as successfully mobile, it wouldn't be hard to see these run-pass rates becoming reasonably pass-happy. Carter, the most likely starter, completed 62 percent of his passes for 2,654 yards at Trinity Valley junior college in 2011, so he can sling it.

If the quarterback position is stable, then that answers basically the only lingering question about the offense.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
David Glasco II	RB	5'10, 200	Sr.	NR	95	496	5	5.2	5.7	36.8%
Evans Okotcha	RB				93	386	2	4.2	4.5	30.1%
Eric Soza	QB				82	431	7	5.3	5.0	43.9%
Brandon Armstrong	RB	5'6, 155	Sr.	2 stars (5.0)	31	251	3	8.1	10.2	48.4%
Jarveon Williams	RB	5'9, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	28	126	0	4.5	4.2	42.9%
Kam Jones	WR	5'11, 190	Sr.	NR	28	309	5	11.0	9.9	67.9%
Brian Vaughn	RB	5'6, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	45	0	3.5	2.8	38.5%
Aaron Grubb	WR	5'8, 170	Jr.	NR	7	72	0	10.3	6.0	85.7%
Kenny Bias	WR	6'1, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	7	45	1	6.4	5.6	57.1%
Tucker Carter	QB	6'3, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	5	12	0	2.4	0.7	20.0%

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Kam Jones	WR-Z	5'11, 190	Sr.	NR	47	34	345	72.3%	12.2%	39.5%	7.3	-44	7.2	41.9
Brandon Freeman	WR-X	5'10, 175	Sr.	NR	39	24	255	61.5%	10.1%	64.5%	6.5	-42	6.2	31.0
Marcellus Mack	WR-Z	6'0, 195	Sr.	NR	32	22	169	68.8%	8.3%	79.2%	5.3	-89	4.5	20.5
Cole Hubble	TE	6'2, 235	Sr.	2 stars (5.1)	31	20	274	64.5%	8.1%	53.6%	8.8	32	8.9	33.3
Aaron Grubb	WR-H	5'8, 170	Jr.	NR	29	18	218	62.1%	7.5%	57.1%	7.5	-4	7.3	26.5
Kenny Bias	WR-X	6'1, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	29	16	335	55.2%	7.5%	57.9%	11.6	125	6.3	40.7
Kenny Harrison	WR-H	5'9, 170	Sr.	NR	29	23	201	79.3%	7.5%	70.8%	6.9	-51	7.1	24.4
Brandon Armstrong	RB	5'6, 155	Sr.	2 stars (5)	23	15	172	65.2%	6.0%	40.0%	7.5	-8	5.8	20.9
Seth Grubb	WR	5'9, 185	Sr.	NR	22	14	228	63.6%	5.7%	40.0%	10.4	57	13.0	27.7
Evans Okotcha	RB				20	13	148	65.0%	5.2%	46.7%	7.4	-9	8.7	18.0
Josiah Monroe	WR	5'6, 170	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	19	13	101	68.4%	4.9%	66.7%	5.3	-52	5.6	12.3
Earon Holmes	WR-X	6'4, 190	Sr.	NR	18	9	122	50.0%	4.7%	42.9%	6.8	-3	7.1	14.8
Jarveon Williams	RB	5'9, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	16	14	134	87.5%	4.2%	45.5%	8.4	-13	7.1	16.3
Jeremiah Moeller	TE				12	9	62	75.0%	3.1%	37.5%	5.2	-39	5.8	7.5
David Morgan	TE	6'4, 260	Jr.	NR	9	7	69	77.8%	2.3%	57.1%	7.7	-8	5.5	8.4
Miles Lerch	WR	5'10, 170	So.	NR	3	3	22	100.0%	0.8%	N/A	7.3	-8	0.0	2.7
Aron Taylor	WR	6'1, 200	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Triston Crossland	TE	6'3, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. A glut

Whoever wins the starting job at quarterback will have incredibly familiar options around him. Soza and tight end Jeremiah Moeller are officially the only two starters missing from last year's offense, and Moeller wasn't much of a target in the passing game -- the "returning starter" in that regard is Cole Hubble.

In all, every Roadrunner targeted more than 20 times in 2013 returns; the unit (hell, the offense as a whole) could use a bit more explosiveness, but efficiency matters, and players like Kam Jones (a meager 10.1 yards per catch, but with a 72 percent catch rate) have it.

Meanwhile, if David Glasco II can stay healthy, he could have a prolific season out of the backfield. Glasco and Brandon Armstrong have both shown potential for both efficiency and explosiveness in their respective careers.

There are a lot of options here; it will be interesting to see if younger options -- sophomore running back Jarveon Williams, junior receiver Kenny Bias, redshirt freshman receiver Aron Taylor -- play a bit more of a role, both because of potential and a need for proven experience in 2015 and beyond. But the seniors are proven and decent.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	105.9	2.91	3.75	41.5%	73.8%	23.5%	149.0	4.6%	2.7%
Rank	43	72	21	41	35	118	15	62	7

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Scott Inskeep	LG	6'4, 300	Sr.	NR	33	2nd All-CUSA
Nate Leonard	C	6'0, 280	Sr.	NR	34
Cody Harris	LT	6'5, 300	Sr.	NR	32
Josh Walker	RT	6'3, 295	Sr.	NR	21
Payton Rion	RG	6'3, 285	Sr.	NR	10
William Cavanaugh	RG	6'1, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	9
Jordan Gray	RT	6'2, 260	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	3
Zach Hester	LG	6'4, 315	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	1
Cody Cole	LT	6'5, 285	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Juan Perez	C	6'2, 275	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Kyle McKinney	OG	6'4, 300	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
David Anzaldua	OT	6'6, 330	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

6. A potentially fantastic line

There are worse things in the world than returning your entire starting line and its entire second string. UTSA's line produced solid numbers in 2013 -- 43rd in Adj. Line Yards, 15th in Adj. Sack Rate. There are always extenuating circumstances with these numbers; quick passing helps the sack rate, and running backs obviously impact how well a line does its job. But these numbers were still among the best in the mid-major universe, and unless the numbers were all because of Eric Soza (probably not), there's no reason to think the numbers will regress much this fall, not with all-conference guard Scott Inskeep and seven other players with starting experience returning.

UTSA returns 143 career starts in all, which is just about as good as you'll ever see.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.98	7	IsoPPP+	114.1	11
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.1%	88	Succ. Rt. +	91.6	96
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	24.8	125	Off. FP+	93.4	117
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.8	24	Redzone S&P+	91.6	84
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.1		ACTUAL	14.0	-2.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	46	72	96	56
RUSHING	34	52	78	11
PASSING	71	86	109	109
Standard Downs		82	100	16
Passing Downs		47	63	28

Q1 Rk	82	1st Down Rk	93
Q2 Rk	84	2nd Down Rk	58
Q3 Rk	57	3rd Down Rk	82
Q4 Rk	91

7. Bend ... bend ... bend...

UTSA's offense was wonderfully efficient but lacked in the big-play department -- the Roadrunners ranked 28th in Success Rate+ (efficiency) but 103rd in IsoPPP+ (explosiveness). The defense had the exact opposite problem: 11th in IsoPPP+ but 96th in Success Rate+. UTSA was content to bend as much as possible on defense, prevent big plays, and hopefully stiffen in the red zone. It more or less worked. This style did no favors for UTSA's field position game, but it certainly helped UTSA to improve from 120th to 68th in Def. F/+.

That was one of the largest improvements you'll see, and virtually every reason for that improvement returns in 2014, from defensive coordinator Neal Neathery to a secondary that returns 12 of its top 13 tacklers.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	95.4	3.19	3.13	39.7%	87.9%	15.2%	84	2.1%	8.6%
Rank	80	96	45	70	125	110	95	117	29

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ashaad Mabry	DT	6'3, 315	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	27.0	4.1%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Richard Burge	DT	6'3, 290	Sr.	NR	12	26.5	4.0%	2.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Codie Brooks	DE	6'1, 250	So.	NR	11	26.0	4.0%	5.0	5.0	0	4	0	0
Robert Singletary	DE	6'2, 250	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	8	21.0	3.2%	5.0	5.0	0	2	2	0
Will Ritter	DE				10	18.0	2.7%	4.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cody Rogers	DE	6'0, 250	Sr.	NR	12	16.0	2.4%	3.5	3.5	0	0	0	0
Brian Price	DT	6'3, 315	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	16.0	2.4%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jarron Harris	DE				11	12.0	1.8%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Jason Neill (2012)	DT	6'2, 260	Jr.	NR	10	9.5	1.5%	2.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Ferrington Macon	DT	5'11, 305	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	8.0	1.2%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justyn Eddins	DE	6'3, 250	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Anthony Lee, Jr.	DT	6'1, 280	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Steven Kurfehs	OLB				12	62.0	9.4%	6.0	2.0	0	3	2	0
Drew Douglas	MLB	6'1, 225	Jr.	NR	12	47.5	7.2%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Blake Terry	MLB	5'11, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	21.0	3.2%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jens Jeters	OLB	6'1, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	20.5	3.1%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Tank O'Neal	LB	6'0, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. A solid run front

Opponents passed slightly more frequently than the national average in 2013, and the S&P+ numbers above suggest why. UTSA swallowed up run plays with decent efficiency and spectacular big-play prevention. The Roadrunners allowed only six runs of greater than 20 yards; only Wisconsin (four) and Alabama (five) allowed fewer. They were pushovers in short-yardage situations, but you can typically afford to give up some third-and-2s if you're limiting the big stuff.

UTSA does have a few absences to account for up front. End Will Ritter was a decent play-maker against the run, and outside linebacker Steven Kurfehs led the team with six tackles for loss. But teams lose players like this every year; if this is your most pressing issue, you're doing pretty well. The top four tackers on the line and the rest of the two-deep at linebacker return. Depth could be an issue if injuries strike -- we know almost nothing about UTSA's linebackers outside of the three returnees.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Triston Wade	FS	5'11, 165	Sr.	NR	12	73.5	11.2%	2	0	2	5	0	0
Nic Johnston	SS	6'2, 210	Sr.	NR	12	48.5	7.4%	3	0	1	0	1	0
Brian King	ROV	6'1, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	42.5	6.5%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Crosby Adams	CB	5'9, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	28.0	4.3%	0	0	1	8	0	2
Cody Berry	ROV				10	24.0	3.7%	2	1	2	1	0	0
Bennett Okotcha	CB	6'0, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	22.5	3.4%	0	0	1	10	0	0
Michael Egwuagu	SS	6'0, 215	So.	2 stars (5.3)	10	18.5	2.8%	3	0	1	1	0	0
Darrien Starling	CB	5'9, 195	Sr.	NR	10	15.0	2.3%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Chase Dahlquist	ROV	6'0, 190	So.	2 stars (5.3)	9	14.0	2.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Tevin Broussard	FS	6'0, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	9.5	1.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Andre Brown	CB	5'11, 170	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	7	9.0	1.4%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Joseph Lizcano	S	5'11, 210	Sr.	NR	7	5.0	0.8%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Adams	CB	6'0, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	7	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Aneas Henricks	CB	5'11, 170	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)

9. Corner playmakers

It's a line I use pretty often; if a cornerback has a high ratio of passes defensed (interceptions and break-ups) to tackles, that either means he's not letting his man catch the ball or he's a terrible tackler. Usually it's more former than latter. Granted, UTSA was not as adept at preventing bigger pass plays as it was on the ground (42 passes of more than 20 yards, 69th in the country), but the Roadrunners still weren't terrible in that regard, and considering corners Crosby Adams and Bennett Okotcha defensed 20 passes while making only 50.5 tackles, that's a pretty encouraging sign.

UTSA's pass rush was pretty sketchy -- and unless redshirted JUCO transfer Justyn Eddins lights the world afire, that probably won't change much in 2014 -- but there's no reason to think that a secondary that returns its top three safeties and top five cornerbacks will do much worse. As a whole, the pass defense needs to improve more than the run, but there is playmaking potential here, especially at the cornerback position.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Kristian Stern	5'11, 185	Sr.	50	40.4	2	17	11	56.0%
Josh Ward	5'10, 220	Sr.	3	29.0	0	1	1	66.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Sean Ianno	6'3, 215	Sr.	60	61.9	21	0	35.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Sean Ianno	6'3, 215	Sr.	38-38	9-11	81.8%	2-8	25.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Kam Jones	KR	5'11, 190	Sr.	21	20.6	0
Jarveon Williams	KR	5'9, 195	So.	9	23.1	0
Kenny Harrison	PR	5'9, 170	Sr.	7	7.3	0
Josiah Monroe	PR	5'6, 170	Sr.	2	2.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	106
Field Goal Efficiency	112
Punt Return Efficiency	112
Kick Return Efficiency	92
Punt Efficiency	53
Kickoff Efficiency	57
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	46

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	at Houston	41
4-Sep	Arizona	34
13-Sep	at Oklahoma State	16
27-Sep	at Florida Atlantic	103
4-Oct	New Mexico	116
11-Oct	Florida International	119
18-Oct	at Louisiana Tech	98
25-Oct	UTEP	117
8-Nov	at Rice	88
15-Nov	Southern Miss	110
22-Nov	at Western Kentucky	91
29-Nov	North Texas	94

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-12.6% (96)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	121
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-7 / -2.8
TO Luck/Game	-1.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	20 (10, 10)

10. 38 seniors

UTSA boasts 38 seniors in 2014. That's crazy. Not only has Larry Coker done a solid job in talent identification and development; he also hasn't really lost that many players to attrition. Even considering things are going pretty well, you'd have figured a few more players would leave in search for more playing time at some point.

Instead, UTSA is loaded with experience, familiarity, and leadership. This could all lead to some incredible regression in 2015, but that's a worry for another time. In 2014, UTSA could be absolutely awesome.

The early schedule is daunting; trips to Houston, Oklahoma State, and FAU loom, along with a visit from Arizona, and a good UTSA team could still start 1-3 or 0-4. But if the Roadrunners hit October with confidence intact, they might not lose again. None of the final eight opponents on the schedule (nine including FAU) are projected better than 88th -- UTSA avoids Marshall from the East -- and the Roadrunners could very well rip off a nice string of wins.

The road trip to Rice is a bit scary, as the Owls could still be pretty solid. But UTSA gets North Texas at home and could ride this senior class to a Conference USA West title in its second year in the conference and third in FBS. Again, this challenging job could get even more challenging in 2015 when the seniors leave, but Coker has done a magnificent job with this first cycle of players, and he could be rewarded handsomely for that in 2014.