The big 2014 Southern Miss football preview: Still picking up the pieces

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1. It got worse

We say it a lot when we're talking about projections in college football: the biggest clue for how you will play in the future is how you've played in the past. That's not exactly profound, and it's more or less the case for any sport, but status doesn't change much in college football. And when it does, it tends to revert to form pretty quickly.

And when you're the most consistent program in FBS, this isn't supposed to happen:

You know the details by now. Lord knows I mention them in some context every year. Under Jeff Bower (until 2007) and Larry Fedora, Southern Miss finished above .500 every year from 1994 to 2011. Over the course of an 18-year span, the Golden Eagles won six games three times, seven games seven times, eight games three times, and nine games four times. Winning seasons were redundant and always accompanied by a thirst for just a bit more. Jeff Bower was pushed out after three seven-win seasons in four years, and his successor, Larry Fedora, went 7-6, 7-6, and 8-5 in his first three years.

The consistency was admirable, but there was never any sort of major breakthrough. Or at least, there hadn't been since 1999, when USM finished 9-3 and 14th in the AP Poll.

In 2011, Southern Miss got its breakthrough, finishing 12-2 and winning Conference USA.

In 2012-13, Southern Miss went 1-23.

Fedora left for North Carolina after 2011, but while USM had a pretty heavy senior class that season, it still seemed as if there were quite a few pieces left over for new head coach Ellis Johnson in 2012. Regardless, the Golden Eagles' 18-year win streak ended with a zero-win season.

And in 2013, the team got even worse. Todd Monken took over for Johnson and saw his team suffer quite a few crippling injuries and go even more drastically young than expected. Southern Miss was truly awful for most of the first two months of the season, and though the team improved late and finished with its first win in almost two years, the Golden Eagles actually ranked even lower in 2013.

There's hope in the simple fact that the team was absurdly young and will feature a lot more experience this time around. But the significance of this fall is still stunning. Southern Miss is the Pheidippides of college football, achieving an almost incomprehensible feat of stamina and consistency, proclaiming "We have won," then collapsing and dying on the spot.

2. Five-year history means nothing in Conference USA

For each conference in this preview series, I preview teams from worst to first according to five-year F/+ rankings. Since I'm not in position to make any sort of prediction until I'm done with all of the previews, I figure five-year history is a nice, neutral way to cover teams in approximate order of program health. And it works perfectly fine most of the time. For the MAC, it meant starting with UMass and Eastern Michigan and finishing with Toledo and Northern Illinois. For the Mountain West coming up, it means starting with New Mexico and finishing with Boise State.

For Conference USA, however, it means absolutely nothing. Here's what five-year history produces for us in terms of C-USA rankings:

1. Louisiana Tech (79th overall)
2. Marshall (81st)
3. Southern Miss (85th)
4. UTSA (96th)
5. North Texas (98th)
6. Western Kentucky (99th)
7. MTSU (101st)
8. Rice (103rd)
9. FIU (106th)
10. FAU (108th)
11. UTEP (110th)
12. UAB (111th)
13. ODU (N/A)

The No. 8 team on the list won the conference last year and barely ranks ahead of No. 9, which went 1-11. No. 4 has been an FBS team for all of two years, while No. 2 won 10 games in 2013 ... twice as many as No. 1 and No. 3 won, combined.

Granted, two SEC teams that went 8-16 in 2012 ended up playing in the conference title game in 2013, so it's not as if fortunes only change in Conference USA. But wow, do fortunes change quickly in Conference USA.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 1-11 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 120
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Texas State	107	15-22	L	21.5 - 17.3	W
7-Sep	at Nebraska	39	13-56	L	20.2 - 38.8	L
14-Sep	at Arkansas	87	3-24	L	12.7 - 25.7	L
28-Sep	at Boise State	45	7-60	L	17.8 - 36.5	L
5-Oct	Florida International	125	23-24	L	13.0 - 48.0	L	-16.3
19-Oct	at East Carolina	40	14-55	L	14.9 - 29.7	L	-20.1
26-Oct	North Texas	51	14-55	L	22.5 - 34.6	L	-18.7
2-Nov	at Marshall	52	13-61	L	23.0 - 45.3	L	-20.6
9-Nov	at Louisiana Tech	112	13-36	L	23.3 - 32.2	L	-18.6
16-Nov	Florida Atlantic	73	7-41	L	14.8 - 29.6	L	-14.6
23-Nov	Middle Tennessee	85	21-42	L	21.7 - 31.6	L	-13.6
30-Nov	at UAB	115	62-27	W	27.5 - 31.3	L	-12.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-19.8%	121	-10.3%	102	-2.8%	108
Points Per Game	17.1	119	41.9	119
Adj. Points Per Game	19.4	119	33.4	105

3. At least it ended on a high note

You might have to squint a bit to see it, but USM did improve over the final month of the season.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 8 games): Opponent 34.5, USM 18.2 (minus-16.3)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Opponent 31.2, USM 21.8 (minus-9.4)

A young offense got slightly more experienced, and a young defense stabilized at least a little bit after allowing 9.9 yards per play to Marshall.

And after trailing UAB, 21-13, at halftime, the Golden Eagles unleashed two seasons of frustration with a nearly perfect half of football, outscoring the Blazers by a 49-6 margin in the second half and winning their first game since the 2012 Hawaii Bowl. One game does not a turnaround make, but it was the first reason for positivity in quite a while. Better than nothing.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.20	39	IsoPPP+	107.6	30
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	34.4%	121	Succ. Rt. +	77.9	121
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	33.0	111	Def. FP+	94.4	111
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.0	122	Redzone S&P+	72.2	120
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	28.1		ACTUAL	38	+9.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	116	116	122	111
RUSHING	123	123	123	124
PASSING	55	114	111	49
Standard Downs		114	121	21
Passing Downs		117	116	86

Q1 Rk	115	1st Down Rk	114
Q2 Rk	125	2nd Down Rk	115
Q3 Rk	104	3rd Down Rk	117
Q4 Rk	90

4. The big plays were pretty big (and scarce)

Southern Miss threw an incredible 26 interceptions in 2013; the only team within three of that total was Washington State, and the Cougars threw 271 more passes than the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss averaged 4.6 yards per play with a 34 percent success rate against a rather weak set of defenses. Average halftime score: Opponent 26, Southern Miss 7.

There are a lot of ways to say the offense was really bad, in other words. But if you look hard enough, you can find some big-play potential. IsoPPP basically measures the magnitude of a team's successful plays -- it's an explosiveness measure for only the good plays -- and while Southern Miss produced almost no big plays, the Golden Eagles ranked 30th in IsoPPP. Nine receivers caught at least one pass of 30 yards, while four running backs had a carry of at least 25. With better scheme, experience, and consistency, there might be some athleticism that can shine through.

Experience will take care of itself, but the task of scheme goes to first-year offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey, who spent 2011-12 as the head coach of Spain Park High School in Alabama and spent 2013 as an offensive analyst for Gus Malzahn at Auburn. After a year with a "power rushing in a spread set" boss, he inherits an offense that passed first and passed second last fall.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Nick Mullens

6'1, 188

So.

2 stars (5.3)

136

276

1776

13

14

49.3%

25

8.3%

5.4

Allan Bridgford

112

207

1133

6

11

54.1%

11

5.0%

4.8

Ricky Lloyd

6'2, 202

Jr.

3 stars (5.5)

Parker Adamson

6'4, 213

RSFr.

2 stars (5.4)

Gunner Roach

6'2, 197

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Kendrick Hardy	RB				93	417	2	4.5	5.0	33.3%
Jalen Richard	RB	5'8, 208	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	84	307	0	3.7	3.5	31.0%
Tyre Bracken	RB				47	144	1	3.1	4.9	21.3%
George Payne	RB	6'2, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	43	173	0	4.0	3.6	39.5%
Nick Mullens	QB	6'1, 188	So.	2 stars (5.3)	15	49	2	3.3	3.4	33.3%
Jeremy Hester	RB				8	17	0	2.1	1.6	12.5%
Tyre'oune Holmes	WR-H	5'11, 170	So.	2 stars (5.4)	4	3	0	0.8	4.8	25.0%
Ito Smith	RB	5'9, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. No job is safe

Nick Mullens completed 51 of 86 passes (59 percent) for 659 yards, eight touchdowns, and three interceptions in his final two games as a true-freshman starter last fall. Receiver Markese Triplett averaged almost 10 yards per target and caught 10 balls for 169 yards in those last two games. Some jobs might be safer than others.

But Mullens could get a push from any number of newcomers this spring and fall. Triplett and sophomore wideouts Tyre'oune Holmes, Marquise Ricard, and James Cox could easily get passed by youngsters like D.J. Thompson (who missed 2013 with injury) or JUCO transfers. And neither of Southern Miss' leading returning rushers, Jalen Richard or George Payne, looks infallible. This is a spring of opportunity for Southern Miss' skill position players. There are reps to be won.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Tyre'oune Holmes	WR-H	5'11, 170	So.	2 stars (5.4)	81	53	410	65.4%	18.9%	52.5%	5.1	-227	4.6	51.0
Markese Triplett	WR-Y	6'4, 224	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	58	33	558	56.9%	13.5%	53.5%	9.6	132	8.5	69.5
Marquise Ricard	WR-Z	6'2, 180	So.	2 stars (5.3)	53	24	306	45.3%	12.4%	59.0%	5.8	-46	5.9	38.1
Tyre Bracken	RB				50	31	301	62.0%	11.7%	44.1%	6.0	-82	7.5	37.5
Dominique Sullivan	WR-X				45	23	350	51.1%	10.5%	64.7%	7.8	35	7.5	43.6
Rickey Bradley	WR-X				33	19	312	57.6%	7.7%	52.0%	9.5	68	9.9	38.8
Jalen Richard	RB	5'8, 208	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	31	21	168	67.7%	7.2%	12.0%	5.4	-80	2.8	20.9
James Cox	WR	6'1, 193	So.	3 stars (5.6)	26	14	197	53.8%	6.1%	70.6%	7.6	11	9.1	24.5
Kendrick Hardy	RB				10	6	64	60.0%	2.3%	62.5%	6.4	-11	7.2	8.0
Chris Briggs	WR-Y				9	4	71	44.4%	2.1%	40.0%	7.9	12	9.2	8.8
JaMarcus Revies	WR				9	6	55	66.7%	2.1%	N/A	6.1	-16	0.0	6.8
Justin Sims	WR				9	4	56	44.4%	2.1%	100.0%	6.2	-3	1.8	7.0
Kyle Sloter	WR-H	6'4, 213	So.	2 stars (5.4)	9	5	35	55.6%	2.1%	100.0%	3.9	-30	3.3	4.4
Bruce Johnson	FB				3	3	19	100.0%	0.7%	0.0%	6.3	-11	2.4	2.4
D.J. Thompson	WR	6'3, 196	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Cooper Harrington	WR	6'0, 193	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Michael Thomas	WR	6'1, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Kyle Foster	WR	6'3, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Branton Lee	WR	5'8, 163	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jayshawn Washington	WR	6'1, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Korey Robertson	WR	6'1, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	75.8	2.26	2.71	31.3%	72.7%	26.4%	94.2	5.8%	6.5%
Rank	125	124	110	124	40	124	77	93	59

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Ed Preston	LG				33
Vincent Brown	RT				20
Rashod Hill	LT	6'6, 285	Jr.	NR	11
Fredrick Moore	RG	6'5, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	11
Cameron Tom	RT	6'4, 289	So.	2 stars (5.4)	9
Jordan Greene	C				6
Garrett Clark	C				4
Taylor Peterson	C	6'4, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	3
Aaron Reed	LT				3
Randal Agee	C	6'0, 277	Jr.	NR	2
Oliver Bates	LG	6'2, 275	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Jerry Harris	DT	6'3, 302	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Devin Farrior	OL	6'4, 304	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Norman Price	OL	6'4, 325	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Thomas Collins	OL	6'5, 320	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)

6. The line simply must improve

When you've got a freshman quarterback, you're going to give up sacks, because his pocket presence probably isn't very well developed. When you've got sketchy running backs, your run-blocking stats aren't going to look very good, because they might not take advantage of the blocks you deliver. Of course.

But when you rank 125th in Adj. Line Yards, some of that is almost certainly on you. We won't know for sure what change Chip Lindsey intends to bring to the table in 2014, but at some point or another, USM is going to run the ball, and it needs to work infinitely better than it did last season.

Improvement is in no way guaranteed, however. Southern Miss finished 2013 with 10 players with starting experience, but only five of them return. New blood could be a good thing, and JUCO transfers Norman Price and Thomas Collins will have every opportunity to work into the rotation, but the Golden Eagles return just 36 career starts up front, one of the lower totals in the country. It probably won't get any worse from a run-blocking perspective, but it might not get a lot better.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.13	56	IsoPPP+	94.3	95
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.2%	89	Succ. Rt. +	89.5	100
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.6	78	Off. FP+	98.5	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.0	118	Redzone S&P+	79.1	121
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.4		ACTUAL	19.0	-0.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	100	105	100	106
RUSHING	115	65	65	107
PASSING	25	116	117	93
Standard Downs		100	96	97
Passing Downs		109	95	95

Q1 Rk	114	1st Down Rk	109
Q2 Rk	108	2nd Down Rk	101
Q3 Rk	99	3rd Down Rk	99
Q4 Rk	87

7. Playing to USM's "strengths"

Southern Miss had a pretty good run defense and a pretty awful pass defense in 2013. But opponents ran the ball constantly anyway. It played to the Golden Eagles' strengths (in air quotes), but it didn't matter because the offense was so hopeless.

Run defense could be a strength again, and this time without the air quotes. Two of the top three defensive tackles return, not including former star recruit Dylan Bradley, who moves from undersized tackle to big end. Plus, Rakeem Nunez-Roches returns after missing last season with injury. Lanky end Dasman McCullum made quite a few big plays last fall (while failing to do much in terms of mundane plays), and a trio of three-star redshirt freshmen are available this year as well. At linebacker, Alan Howze returns after a medical redshirt -- he was on pace for 78 tackles and more than 10 tackles for loss before getting hurt last year -- and joins a pair of players who more or less held their own last year (Terrick Wright and C.J. Perry).

Of course, Southern Miss will still need a pass rush. Last year's wasn't very good. But if the Eagles can simply force opponents to pass, that's a step in the right direction.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.6	2.61	3.80	41.0%	72.7%	20.2%	56.5	3.9%	2.7%
Rank	54	23	112	84	95	47	119	77	123

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Octavius Thomas	BAN				12	38.5	5.1%	4.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Dylan Bradley	DE	6'1, 265	So.	3 stars (5.6)	11	38.0	5.1%	4.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Rakeem Nunez-Roches (2012)	DT	6'2, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	29.5	4.4%	6.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Adam Williams	DT	6'2, 294	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	29.5	3.9%	8.5	3.0	0	0	1	0
Khyri Thornton	DT				11	27.5	3.7%	6.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Dasman McCullum	DE	6'4, 237	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	25.5	3.4%	10.5	2.5	0	4	0	0
Michael Smith	DE	6'4, 262	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	23.5	3.1%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Wil Freeman	DT	6'6, 260	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	10.5	1.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ja'Boree Poole	BAN	6'2, 240	So.	2 stars (5.3)	8	9.5	1.3%	1.0	1.0	0	2	1	0
Nic Bekkers	DE	6'5, 244	Sr.	NR	12	6.0	0.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Rod Crayton	DT	6'1, 302	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Christopher Robinson	DL	6'2, 270	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Draper Riley	DT	6'4, 284	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Xavier Thigpen	DE	6'5, 233	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Jon Michael Edwards	DE	6'4, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Terrick Wright	WLB	6'2, 216	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	67.0	8.9%	4.0	0.0	1	2	1	0
Dylan Reda	WLB				8	35.5	4.7%	3.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
C.J. Perry, Jr.	MLB	6'0, 231	So.	2 stars (5.2)	12	31.5	4.2%	5.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Alan Howze	MLB	6'3, 227	Sr.	3 stars (5.5	4	26.0	3.5%	3.5	1.0	0	1	1	0
David Bertucci	SLB	5'11, 200	Jr.	NR	12	10.5	1.4%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ta'Dren Kennedy	MLB	5'7, 218	Sr.	NR	12	9.5	1.3%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Penn	SLB	6'1, 212	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	9	8.5	1.1%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jerry McCorvey	LB	6'3, 249	So.	2 stars (5.4)	4	7.0	0.9%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Josh Flanders	LB				10	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Lelland Ducksworth	LB	6'1, 207	So.	3 stars (5.6)	1	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jerry McCorvey	LB	6'3, 249	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Darian Yancey	LB	6'1, 210	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Picasso Nelson, Jr.	DB	5'11, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)
Cornell Armstrong	DB	6'0, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Debarriaus Miller	SPUR	5'10, 183	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	70.5	9.4%	4.5	0	1	2	1	0
Kelsey Douglas	BS	5'11, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	50.5	6.7%	3.5	0	1	1	1	0
Emmanuel Johnson	FS	5'11, 182	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	10	46.5	6.2%	0.5	0	1	1	1	0
Jacorius Cotton (2012)	S	5'11, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.5	9	34.5	5.1%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Kalan Reed	CB	5'11, 198	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	10	30.0	4.0%	2.5	0	1	5	1	1
Ed Wilkins	CB	5'10, 171	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	27.5	3.7%	0	0	1	3	1	0
Alex Smith	SPUR				7	22.0	2.9%	5	0	0	0	1	0
Alexander Walters	CB				11	20.5	2.7%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Jerrion Johnson	SPUR				12	18.5	2.5%	2.5	1	0	0	0	0
Urell Johnson	CB	5'10, 177	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	5.5	0.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Evan Osborne	DB	6'3, 198	So.	2 stars (5.3)	11	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jomez Applewhite	DB	6'1, 175	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Trae Collins	DB	5'11, 181	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Curtis Mikell	DB	5'8, 165	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Quade Alexander	DB	6'0, 165	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Xavier Marion	DB	6'0, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. Depth + experience = options

Of the five leading tacklers in the secondary last season, one was a freshman and three were sophomores. Southern Miss was pretty decent at attacking the line of scrimmage with its SPUR safety -- the three players listed as SPURs above combined for 12 tackles for loss last year -- but the combination of youth and a non-existent pass rush was, shall we say, unfavorable for USM. Again, opponents were content to run, but they could still pass when they needed to, completing 66 percent of their passes, albeit at only 11.9 yards per completion.

With any help from a pass rush, the defensive backfield could improve quite a bit in 2014, not only because of experience, but because of the return of Jacorius Cotton from academic issues. Cotton is a big-hitter and another potential play-maker, and with just a little bit of extra pressure on the quarterback, USM's pass rankings should rise.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tyler Sarrazin	6'3, 190	So.	44	39.4	2	10	8	40.9%
Matthew Moseley	5'10, 164	Jr.	18	40.9	0	3	9	66.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Corey Acosta	6'0, 195	Sr.	45	60.0	8	1	17.8%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Corey Acosta	6'0, 195	Sr.	24-24	8-14	57.1%	3-6	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Justin Sims	KR			19	21.9	0
Emmanuel Johnson	KR	5'11, 182	Sr.	11	25.5	0
Emmanuel Johnson	PR	5'11, 182	Sr.	4	8.3	0
Jalen Richard	PR	5'8, 208	Jr.	4	16.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	108
Field Goal Efficiency	107
Punt Return Efficiency	104
Kick Return Efficiency	66
Punt Efficiency	118
Kickoff Efficiency	20
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	18

9. Hope in the return game

Free safety Emmanuel Johnson and running back Jalen Richard were inconsistent in 2013, but they showed significant potential in the return game, albeit in a small sample. If they can provide above-average returns and Corey Acosta is given a reason to kick off a few more times (Southern Miss' kick coverage was quite strong), then the Golden Eagles could do pretty well in the field position game. Acosta wasn't much of a place-kicker -- he missed six of 14 field goals under 40 yards -- but you have to worry about creating opportunities before you worry about converting those opportunities into points. Field position helps with that.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	at Mississippi State	29
6-Sep	Alcorn State	NR
13-Sep	at Alabama	1
20-Sep	Appalachian State	NR
27-Sep	Rice	88
4-Oct	at Middle Tennessee	99
18-Oct	at North Texas	94
25-Oct	Louisiana Tech	98
1-Nov	at UTEP	117
8-Nov	Marshall	59
15-Nov	at UTSA	75
29-Nov	UAB	115

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-8.9% (85)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	79
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-19 / -8.7
TO Luck/Game	-4.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	16 (7, 9)

10. Results probably don't matter yet

The receiving corps and most of the defense is deep and potentially athletic, the offense isn't going to be worse (it almost can't be), and the defense could develop into an actual strength to some degree in 2014. By default, Southern Miss should expect to improve this fall, but while one year could be considered an aberration, you don't sink as far as the Golden Eagles have in the last two years and expect to rebound quickly.

That there are only four teams on the schedule projected worse than 100th suggests that improvement could result in only three to four wins, but that would still be three to four times more wins than they have managed since Larry Fedora left. The 18-year win streak is very much in the rearview mirror, and it's time to start building from scratch.