The big 2014 Buffalo football preview: What happens when stars leave?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Stars leave

If you're not at a powerhouse, the cards are always stacked against you. No one knows this better than the University of Buffalo.

The Bulls joined FBS in 1999 and proceeded to win 12 games in eight seasons. Turner Gill improved the program's output from one win to two in 2006, then five in 2007, then eight (with a shocking MAC title) in 2008. The Bulls faded back to 5-7 the next year, and Gill left for Kansas.

Jeff Quinn, Brian Kelly's offensive coordinator at Grand Valley State, Central Michigan, and Cincinnati, took over for Gill, and as with Gill, it took him a few years to truly build traction. In his fourth season, however, he helped to engineer another eight-win season and the program's second bowl trip (a Potato Bowl loss to San Diego State). His reward? Well, a contract extension, for one; also: a staff overhaul and a roster without Khalil Mack and other stars.

Quinn began the offseason tasked with replacing four assistants: co-coordinator and DBs coach Maurice Linguist (hired as Iowa State's new DBs coach), defensive line coach Jappy Oliver (Virginia's new defensive line coach), quarterbacks coach Don Patterson (UConn's new quarterbacks coach and assistant head coach), and strength and conditioning coach Zach Duval (Wyoming's new director of sports performance).

New assistants can work out perfectly well -- as with any hire, from head coach to graduate assistant, it is more-or-less a coin flip -- but these new assistants will be working with new talent in key roles. Running back Branden Oliver and receiver Alex Neutz are gone. So are all-conference guard Jasen Carlson and both starting defensive ends. Star defensive backs Okoye Houston and Najja Houston have run out of eligibility, as has outside linebacker Adam Redden. And, of course, so has surefire first-round draft pick Khalil Mack.

So basically, almost every reason for Buffalo's strong 2013 campaign is gone, other than Quinn himself. And now the rebuilding resumes. Will it take four more years for Quinn to break through again?

2. Now what?

That was, of course, a bit fatalistic. Not every difference-maker is gone, and this is not an abandon-all-hope situation.

The new assistants have quite a bit of experience and/or upside -- new defensive line coach Chris Cosh is a former coordinator at USF and Kansas State, new defensive backs coach Eric Lewis was Weber State's coordinator last year, etc. -- and this team didn't exactly lose all 22 starters. The quarterback is back, as are four starters on a seasoned offensive line. The edges of the defense (end, OLB, cornerback) have been dinged, but the backbone up the middle could be strong. Special teams should still be a relative strength.

The cupboard is not bare, but we'll have to see whether Quinn's 2014 Bulls are capable of taking advantage of a weak schedule (opponents projected better than 100th in the initial F/+ projections: two) and reaching bowl eligibility again in a transition year.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 5-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 80
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at Ohio State	9	20-40	L	21.7 - 22.4	L
7-Sep	at Baylor	7	13-70	L	24.4 - 41.4	L
14-Sep	Stony Brook	N/A	26-23	W	14.4 - 24.3	L
28-Sep	Connecticut	93	41-12	W	27.3 - 19.8	W
5-Oct	Eastern Michigan	124	42-14	W	21.3 - 28.1	L	-5.4
12-Oct	at Western Michigan	117	33-0	W	27.0 - 15.3	W	-2.9
19-Oct	Massachusetts	118	32-3	W	22.2 - 29.6	L	-1.0
26-Oct	at Kent State	106	41-21	W	36.0 - 31.6	W	+1.9
5-Nov	Ohio	104	30-3	W	38.0 - 8.7	W	+6.2
12-Nov	at Toledo	62	41-51	L	33.9 - 35.0	L	+7.4
19-Nov	at Miami (Ohio)	123	44-7	W	25.3 - 24.2	W	+5.3
29-Nov	Bowling Green	47	7-24	L	18.4 - 21.9	L	+6.0
21-Dec	vs. San Diego State	89	24-49	L	19.0 - 35.5	L	+1.9

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-6.6%	86	-1.5%	71	+0.3%	63
Points Per Game	30.3	53	24.4	40
Adj. Points Per Game	25.3	94	26.0	49

3. A couple of eggs, but otherwise...

For most of the 2013 season, Buffalo was a team slightly better than the norm.

Adj. Score is designed to gauge how a team would have performed against a perfectly average opponent (with an average number of breaks) in a given week; in four of 13 games, the Bulls were within 10 points of said average opponent, one way or the other. Two games plumped the Bulls' averages up a bit (wins over Western Michigan and Ohio by a combined 63-3), but two games were major drags on the averages (losses to Baylor and SDSU by a combined 119-37). Remove Baylor and SDSU, and Buffalo's adjusted scoring margin is plus-2.3 points per game, a healthy, above-average mark.

But when it poorly for the Bulls, it went really poorly.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.06	100	IsoPPP+	90.0	110
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.2%	69	Succ. Rt. +	88.9	99
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.3	95	Def. FP+	96.4	94
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	53	Redzone S&P+	94.6	84
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.6		ACTUAL	15	-5.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	78	108	100	93
RUSHING	68	114	109	94
PASSING	70	93	80	69
Standard Downs		107	99	108
Passing Downs		105	92	114

Q1 Rk	124	1st Down Rk	105
Q2 Rk	94	2nd Down Rk	102
Q3 Rk	64	3rd Down Rk	86
Q4 Rk	77

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Joe Licata	6'2, 226	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	233	402	2824	24	8	58.0%	19	4.5%	6.5
Alex Zordich				5	12	66	0	0	41.7%	0	0.0%	5.5
Tony Daniel	6'5, 206	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Collin Michael	6'5, 224	So.	3 stars (5.5)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Branden Oliver	RB				310	1535	15	5.0	4.5	38.7%
Anthone Taylor	RB	5'10, 209	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	82	399	3	4.9	4.2	39.0%
James Potts	RB	5'11, 194	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	58	201	0	3.5	2.7	31.0%
Joe Licata	QB	6'2, 226	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	15	34	1	2.3	3.9	26.7%
Alex Zordich	QB				13	76	0	5.8	3.0	53.8%
Devin Campbell	RB	5'11, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	21	2	1.9	2.6	18.2%
Brandon Murie	RB				7	31	0	4.4	7.8	28.6%
James Coleman	RB	6'1, 232	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Gary Hosey	RB	6'0, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

4. Oliver was respectable and replaceable

In this preview, we're going to be talking about some truly impressive (and departed) stars. Everybody knows about Khalil Mack, but there were other high-level performers on the defense as well. And Alex Neutz was outstanding despite a poor bowl game.

It's easy to lump running back Branden Oliver into that group, and for all we know he was infinitely better in 2013 than any Buffalo running back will be in 2014. He was prolific for the Bulls, racking up over 4,700 rushing and receiving yards (and 35 touchdowns) in four seasons up north. But his averages were never eye-popping. He was decent in most areas -- efficiency, durability, receiving, etc. -- and spectacular in none.

Of all of the departed stars, Oliver is the one I'm least concerned with Buffalo replacing. Between Anthone Taylor (who approximated Oliver's production quite well), veterans James Potts and Devin Campbell, and perhaps a newbie like James Coleman or Gary Hosey, I'm pretty confident that Buffalo's running backs will be just about as solid as they were last year. And if they get more help from the offensive line than Oliver did in 2013, that's even better.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Alex Neutz	WR				102	61	1024	59.8%	25.4%	56.4%	10.0	257	8.7	110.7
Fred Lee	WR				98	58	685	59.2%	24.4%	52.6%	7.0	-48	6.2	74.1
Mason Schreck	TE	6'5, 229	So.	2 stars (5.2)	39	17	147	43.6%	9.7%	46.9%	3.8	-108	3.8	15.9
Branden Oliver	RB				30	25	180	83.3%	7.5%	50.0%	6.0	-88	6.1	19.5
Devin Campbell	RB	5'11, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	26	19	200	73.1%	6.5%	47.8%	7.7	-16	7.7	21.6
Boise Ross	WR	6'0, 173	So.	2 stars (5.4)	23	13	156	56.5%	5.7%	66.7%	6.8	-12	9.0	16.9
Jimmy Gordon	TE				17	9	108	52.9%	4.2%	50.0%	6.4	-13	2.7	11.7
Matt Weiser	TE	6'5, 241	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	15	13	154	86.7%	3.7%	50.0%	10.3	17	7.5	16.7
Devon Hughes	WR	6'0, 188	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	7	91	50.0%	3.5%	66.7%	6.5	-6	6.7	9.8
Anthone Taylor	RB	5'10, 209	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	10	7	45	70.0%	2.5%	50.0%	4.5	-36	4.7	4.9
John Dunmore	WR	6'0, 178	Sr.	NR	10	3	30	30.0%	2.5%	55.6%	3.0	-27	3.3	3.2
Ron Willoughby	WR	6'4, 196	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	5	3	83	60.0%	1.2%	100.0%	16.6	45	5.3	9.0
Alex Dennison	FB				5	5	40	100.0%	1.2%	60.0%	8.0	-10	7.9	4.3
Cordero Dixon	WR	5'11, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	3	1	6	33.3%	0.7%	100.0%	2.0	-12	1.7	0.6
Malcolm Robinson	WR	6'1, 199	So.	2 stars (5.3)	3	1	8	33.3%	0.7%	N/A	2.7	-10	0.0	0.9
Marcus McGill	WR	6'1, 227	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jamarl Eiland	WR	5'10, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)

5. Now, about that receiving corps...

The offensive line was pretty poor in all run-blocking categories in 2013 but does return six players with starting experience (100 career starts), including three-year starting guard Andre Davis and two-year starting center Trevor Sales. There is hope for the run game in general. But that only really matters if the passing game is able to avoid becoming a total liability.

In overtaking the mobile but mistake-prone Alex Zordich for the starting job last fall, quarterback Joe Licata brought a bit of stability to the Buffalo quarterback position. Then a three-star sophomore, Licata still left a bit to be desired from an efficiency standpoint, but he threw far fewer interceptions, and he was solid in play-action.

In 2014, the bar gets raised for Licata. He will be without a high-efficiency dump-off threat in Oliver and No. 2 receiver Fred Lee, sure, but the biggest loss is Neutz, Buffalo's best (only?) big-play weapon. In four years, Neutz caught 195 passes for 3,094 yards and 31 scores. Despite Licata's sub-60 percent completion rate, which suggests a lot of shots downfield, Neutz was the only Bull regular to average greater than 12.0 yards per catch, and he blew that number away: 16.8 per catch in 2013, 15.9 for his career. Buffalo was big-play challenged in 2013 with Neutz; what happens without him?

From a recruiting standpoint, there appears to be a little bit of hope here. Senior Devon Hughes is a former three-star signee, as is redshirt freshman Jamari Elland, and sophomore Boise Ross was a high-two. Still, Hughes has caught 48 passes in three years, and Ross averaged 6.8 yards per target as a freshman. Will opponents have any reason to fear this offense from a big-play perspective?

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	84	2.67	3.07	37.2%	61.4%	21.2%	120.5	4.7%	4.0%
Rank	117	100	81	86	101	92	46	66	21

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Jasen Carlson	LG				26	1st All-MAC
Andre Davis	LG	6'4, 320	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	37
Trevor Sales	C	6'2, 327	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	25
Jake Silas	RT	6'7, 310	Sr.	NR	13
Dillon Guy	RG	6'4, 320	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	11
Robert Blodgett	RG	6'5, 307	Jr.	NR	8
John Kling	LT	6'7, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	6
Todd Therrien	LG	6'1, 291	Jr.	NR	0
Andrew Borruso	C	6'1, 285	So.	NR	0
Albert McCoy	RT	6'4, 277	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Brandon Manosalvas	OL	6'4, 307	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Andy Fidler	OL	6'6, 280	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)
Skylar Hartley	OL	6'2, 300	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.28	114	IsoPPP+	88.6	115
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.0%	24	Succ. Rt. +	104.7	41
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.6	35	Off. FP+	102.5	32
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.8	25	Redzone S&P+	100.8	56
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	26.7		ACTUAL	30.0	+3.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	50	54	41	84
RUSHING	67	47	35	76
PASSING	38	71	51	80
Standard Downs		38	24	103
Passing Downs		93	101	104

Q1 Rk	97	1st Down Rk	37
Q2 Rk	58	2nd Down Rk	91
Q3 Rk	21	3rd Down Rk	94
Q4 Rk	100

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.6	2.78	3.16	37.9%	71.0%	21.6%	150.7	7.5%	10.8%
Rank	45	41	49	47	88	32	9	8	6

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Beau Bachtelle	DE				13	32.0	4.6%	5.0	3.5	0	4	0	0
Colby Way	DE				12	25.5	3.6%	8.5	5.0	0	0	0	0
Kristjan Sokoli	NG	6'5, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	20.0	2.8%	5.0	2.5	0	1	0	0
Tedroy Lynch	DE	6'2, 249	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	13.5	1.9%	2.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Dalton Barksdale	NG	6'3, 304	Sr.	NR	13	13.0	1.8%	2.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Brandon Crawford	DE	6'2, 229	So.	2 stars (5.3)	8	6.0	0.9%	2.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Max Perisse	DE	6'4, 266	So.	2 stars (5.2)	12	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jake Khoury	DT	6'3, 280	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

6. Pass rush: Devastated

The bend-don't-break defense is rather common in college football, and it's not hard to understand why. If you tackle well, limit big plays, and live to fight another down, perhaps your opponent will eventually make a mistake.

There is often reward for those who refuse to bend, however. In 2013, Buffalo's defense was the exact opposite of the typical bend-don't-break offering. The Bulls tried to break you instead. Blessed with a top-10 pass rush, a strong line, and perhaps the best linebacker in college football, Buffalo gave you nothing intentionally and made a havoc play (a tackle for loss, a pass break-up, an interception, or a forced fumble) once every five snaps, eighth-most in the country. The Bulls' defensive success rates were among the best at the mid-major level, and they forced passing downs with ease.

The problem: when the Bulls broke down, they broke down. The big plays Buffalo allowed were bigger than almost anybody else's, and the result was some pretty high variance. Buffalo allowed 4.1 yards per play or fewer five times in 13 games and allowed 6.4 or greater five times, and despite all of the quality up front, the defense ranked just 71st in Def. F/+ -- certainly not bad, but not as good as it could have been.

In 2014, the defensive personality could change drastically. None of the four Buffalo players with greater than 5.5 tackles for loss return, and only two of seven Bulls with at least two sacks are back. All four starting ends (Beau Bachtelle and Colby Way) and outside linebackers (Khalil Mack and Adam Redden) are gone. Buffalo had a terrifying edge presence in 2013; that's all gone now.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Khalil Mack	OLB				13	78.0	11.1%	19.0	10.5	3	7	5	0
Lee Skinner	ILB	6'2, 233	Sr.	NR	13	57.5	8.2%	3.5	0.5	1	0	0	0
Adam Redden	OLB				10	51.0	7.3%	12.5	4.5	0	2	2	0
Blake Bean	ILB	6'1, 232	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	10	40.5	5.8%	5.5	1.0	0	1	1	0
Okezie Alozie	OLB	6'0, 208	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	13	33.5	4.8%	2.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Jake Stockman	ILB	6'2, 237	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	31.0	4.4%	5.5	1.0	1	0	1	0
Jarrett Franklin	OLB	6'0, 200	So.	2 stars (5.2)	11	17.0	2.4%	3.0	1.5	0	1	1	0
Nick Gilbo	LB	6'1, 220	Jr.	NR	6	13.5	1.9%	2.0	1.0	1	0	1	0
Travis Pitzonka	ILB	6'1, 217	Jr.	NR	13	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Solomon Jackson	LB	6'1, 230	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Corey Henderson	LB	6'3, 250	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Juwan Jackson	LB	6'4, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Will White	LB	6'1, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

7. Solid up the middle

Two of Buffalo's top three safeties are gone, so there is no immediate guarantee that improvement in the big-play realm will offset regression in efficiency.

Still, it has to be encouraging that the middle of the defense will still be experienced and solid. Nose guard Kristjan Sokoli returns, as do both starting inside linebackers in this 3-4 scheme (Lee Skinner, Blake Bean). Backup ILB Jake Stockman also wreaked havoc at times, with 5.5 tackles for loss among his 31.0 tackles, so it wouldn't be surprising to see one of these three lining up on the outside this time around. Throw in experienced secondary pieces like free safety Derek Brim and corner Cortney Lester, and you've at least got a chance to improve in terms of big-play prevention.

8. Mack's legacy

Despite the attrition in star power, Quinn didn't panic and attempt to bring in a ton of JUCO transfers. His recruiting class was based entirely in the prep ranks, which could obviously pay off in the long-term. And he might not even have to wait too long to get a key contribution from the 2014 class.

Act I: Player A becomes transcendent star for school.
Act II: New recruits sign on to become the Next Player A.
Act III: School becomes [Player A's Position] U.

This is the way it works in our head, even if things rarely ever play out this way. But as Khalil Mack prepares for his selection near the top of the first round at the NFL Draft in another couple of months, his former team signed three highly touted linebackers to become the Next Mack.

It probably isn't a coincidence that all three three-star signees in Buffalo's recruiting class are projected linebackers. With an aggressive scheme and playing time available (and, with three seniors among the top four returnees, there will be even more playing time coming open soon), the trio of Corey Henderson, Juwan Jackson, and Will White might not have to wait long to make an impact and expand Mack's legacy.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Okoye Houston	SS				13	55.0	7.8%	7	2	0	6	0	1
Derek Brim	FS	6'0, 199	Sr.	NR	13	46.5	6.6%	0.5	0	0	4	2	0
Najja Johnson	CB				13	37.0	5.3%	0.5	0	3	9	0	0
Cortney Lester	CB	6'0, 182	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	29.5	4.2%	0.5	0	3	6	0	1
Tomarris Bell	SS				13	22.5	3.2%	2	0	0	4	0	0
Marqus Baker	CB	5'10, 181	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	13	13.0	1.8%	0	0	1	3	0	0
Witney Sherry	FS	6'0, 188	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	12.5	1.8%	0	0	1	3	0	0
Brandon Berry	DB	6'0, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)	13	11.0	1.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Houston Glass	DB	6'0, 188	So.	2 stars (5.3)	11	8.5	1.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dwellie Striggles	CB	5'10, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	6.5	0.9%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Carlos Lammons	DB				11	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Terrance Wilson	CB	5'10, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)
Ryan Williamson	S	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tyler Grassman	6'1, 195	Jr.	71	40.0	3	17	26	60.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Tyler Grassman	6'1, 195	Jr.	61	54.9	10	6	16.4%
Patrick Clarke	6'2, 193	Sr.	9	59.3	4	0	44.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Patrick Clarke	6'2, 193	Sr.	45-48	8-10	80.0%	5-10	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Devin Campbell	KR	5'11, 205	Jr.	28	23.9	1
Boise Ross	KR	6'0, 173	So.	8	23.6	0
Devin Campbell	PR	5'11, 205	Jr.	5	4.8	0
Alex Neutz	PR			4	7.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	63
Field Goal Efficiency	55
Punt Return Efficiency	70
Kick Return Efficiency	12
Punt Efficiency	89
Kickoff Efficiency	100
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	33

9. Field position strength

Big plays were certainly a problem at times, but more often than not Buffalo leveraged opponents into passing downs and finished drives off with punts (often of the three-and-out variety) or turnovers. When you throw in a strong kick return man in Devin Campbell and a not-awful punter in Tyler Grassman, you've got a recipe for a pretty strong field position game.

Obviously the defense has quite a bit of work to do to replicate last year's success rates, but with Campbell and Grassman returning, along with a decent place-kicker in Patrick Clarke, the special teams unit should once again hold up its end of the bargain.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Duquesne	NR
6-Sep	at Army	101
13-Sep	Baylor	25
20-Sep	Norfolk State	NR
27-Sep	Miami (Ohio)	121
4-Oct	at Bowling Green	60
11-Oct	at Eastern Michigan	122
25-Oct	Central Michigan	106
5-Nov	at Ohio	108
11-Nov	Akron	118
19-Nov	Kent State	102
28-Nov	at Massachusetts	123

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-14.2% (100)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	121
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	15 / 6.1
TO Luck/Game	+3.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (7, 5)

10. A solid future

Buffalo is playing the long game here. Quinn lost a ton of star power and a lot of assistants, but the moves he made in response was far from panicked. He is building around four-year talent, he is witnessing the revamping and upgrade of Buffalo's athletic facilities, and he is taking his time. This is admirable, but in a business not known for its patience, it will be interesting to see what happens if Buffalo's record drops back below .500 for a couple of years.

Of course, even if Buffalo drops out of the top-100, the Bulls will have a decent shot at .500. They'll need to go 7-5 to reach a bowl thanks to two FCS opponents, but seven of eight MAC opponents are projected 102nd or worse, and a 4-0 home record in conference play isn't out of the question. Win your two FCS games and win any single game on the road, and that's a bowl despite all of the turnover. I'm leaning more toward five or six wins for this inexperienced squad, but if that is accompanied by growth in the front seven and at receiver, that won't be the end of the world.